Swell Classification Guidelines
Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.
Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.
On
Thursday, February 11, 2016
:
- Buoy 106 (Waimea Bay): Seas were 10.9 ft @ 16.7 secs with swell 8.3 ft @ 16.9 secs from 325 degrees.
- Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 2.8 ft @ 12.0 secs with swell 2.2 ft @ 12.5 secs from 268 degrees. Wind calm. Water temperature 60.3 degrees. At Santa Barbara swell was 2.6 ft @ 12.9 secs from 263 degrees. At Santa Monica swell was 1.8 ft @ 13.0 secs from 250 degrees. Southward from Orange County to San Diego swell was 2.3 ft @ 13.6 secs from 266 degrees.
- Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 5.7 ft @ 13.7 secs with swell 4.5 ft @ 12.6 secs from 274 degrees. Wind northwest 12-14 kts. Water temp 55.8 degs.
Notes
Buoy 46059, Hi-res Buoys
PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Thursday (2/11) in North and Central CA generic Gulf swell was in the water and producing surf in the 1 ft overhead range at top breaks with light offshore winds and clean conditions. Down in Santa Cruz surf was chest high at top breaks on the sets and clean but weak. In Southern California up north Gulf swell was hitting producing waves in the waist to chest high range and clean and lined up. It looked fun. Down south waves were chest high on the sets and mirror glass but the bottom was messed up. Hawaii's North Shore was getting Swell #9 but with much less size than hoped for, with waves 14 ft Hawaiian early with offshore winds and good conditions. The South Shore was flat and clean. The East Shore was getting the same wraparound swell with waves in the double overhead range and lightly chopped from trades.
See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.
Meteorological Overview
Strong Storm #9 developed on the Dateline Mon (2/8) with seas in the 49-50 ft range and moved through the Western Gulf through Wed (2/10) with seas fading from 42 ft while falling somewhat southeast. A weaker developed off Japan Wed (2/10) and is to track to the dateline Fri (2/12) targeting Hawaii well with seas peaking at only barely 30 ft. A bit of a break to follow while the Inactive Phase of the MJO dissipates and the Active Phase takes control. No solid swell producing weather systems are forecast through Thus (2/18), but this downturn is likely to be short lived.
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis.cgius forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
North Pacific
Overview
Jetstream
On Thursday AM (2/11) the jet was starting to .cgiit over Japan and inland over Asia, but consolidated just off Japan tracking east on the 30-35N latitude line with winds to 190 kts pushing up to the dateline and forming a trough mid-way between Japan and the dateline, then ridging slightly in the Western Gulf before falling again into a gentle trough in the Gulf of Alaska with winds feeding it at 150 kts. There was support for gale development in both trough. The jet .cgiit east of there at 138W with the northern branch tracking up into southern British Columbia and the southern branch tracking over Central Baja. Over the next 72 hours the Gulf trough is to rapidly dissipate while the trough off Japan moves to the dateline on Fri-Sat (2/13) with winds building on the east side of the trough to 200 kts offering some decent support for gale development. The .cgiit off California is to hold near 139W while a broad .cgiit pattern moves off Japan reaching to the the dateline on Sun (2/14). Beyond 72 hours the .cgiit pattern over the West Pacific is to move east reaching a point north of Hawaii by Tues (2/16) but the jet reconsolidating off Japan and tracking east-northeast and reaching the dateline with winds to 190+ kts. No trough are forecast though. By Thurs (2/18) a generally improving pattern is forecast as the consolidated jet off Japan starts falling south from 40N with winds to 200 kts reaching a point north of Hawaii, with the big .cgiit east of there and falling south while tracking east, with the northern branch pushing into North CA and the southern branch over North Baja. no troughs are forecast while the jet reconfigures itself but it is expected the storm machine will activate shortly thereafter.
Surface Analysis
On Tuesday (2/9) swell from Storm #9 was the only real thing happening (see Storm #9 below). But a gale was also tracking from off Japan towards the dateline (see Japan-Dateline Gale below)
Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.
Japan-Dateline Gale
A gale developed Wed AM (2/10) off Japan pushing east generating 35-40 kt west winds and seas building from 21 ft over a small area at 39N 158E. In the evening 40-45 kt northwest winds were pushing east generating seas to 27 ft 38N 160E targeting mainly Hawaii. On Thurs AM (2/11) fetch was getting more organized at 40 kts over a modest sized area targeting Hawaii well with 29 ft seas at 37N 166E. Fetch is to be fading from 35 kts falling southeast in the evening with seas barely 30 ft at 37N 172E. On Fri AM (2/12) a broad area of 30-35 kts northwest wind is to be moving to the dateline with 27 ft seas fading at 36N 178E. In the evening northwest fetch is to be fading from 30 kts with seas fading from 25 ft at 37N 175W. This system to dissipate from there. Possible decent swell to result mainly for Hawaii.
Hawaii: For.cgianning purposes expect swell arrival on Sun (2/14) with period 17 secs and size small building to 6.4 ft @ 15-16 secs late (9.5 ft). Swell fading Mon (2/15) from 6 ft @ 14-15 secs (8.5 ft). Residuals on Tues (2/16) fading from 4.5 ft @ 13 secs (6 ft). Swell Direction: 310 degrees
Storm #9 (Titans of Mavericks)
A storm developed just west of the dateline and positioned further north than previous systems, due to the Inactive Phase of the MJO. On Sun AM (2/7) winds were 45 kts and seas building from 22 ft at 40N 167E. By evening 65 kt northwest winds were generating 41 ft seas over a tiny area at 43.5N 175E. On Mon AM (2/8) a broader area of 55 kt northwest winds were starting to fall southeast from the dateline with 49 ft seas at 43N 177.5W targeting Hawaii (326 degs) and the US West Coast (NCal 296 degs, 300 degs SCal). The Jason 2 satellite passed over the west quadrant of the storm at 18z Monday and reported a 15 reading average of 40.6 ft with a single reading to 45.4 ft were the model indicated 39-40 ft seas should be. The model was right on track. In the evening 55 kt northwest winds were tracking east- southeast with seas fading some from 49 ft at 43N 173W (332 degs HI, 295 degs NCal, 299 degs SCal). The satellite made a second pass at 06z Tuesday this time right over the core of the storm and reported 46.1 ft seas with one reading to 51.2 ft where the model projected 47.9 ft seas. The model was right on track again. On Tues AM (2/9) a broad area of 45 kt northwest winds were dropping slightly southeast with 43 ft seas solid at 40N 169W (337 degs HI, 287 degs NCal, 295 degs SCal). The storm held position in the evening with 40-45 kts winds targeting the US West Coast and 38 ft seas at 40N 167W (342 degs HI, 290 degs NCal, 295 degs SCal) with 28 ft seas 750 nmiles north-northwest of Hawaii. Fetch was fading from 40 kts Wed AM (2/10) tracking slowly east with seas fading from 34 ft at 41N 163W (289 degs NCal, 295 degs SCal and bypassing HI). In the evening fetch was fading from 35-40 kts in the Gulf with seas fading from 33 ft at 40N 159W (287 degs NCal, 295 degs SCal). Thurs AM (2/11) fetch was gone with seas dissipating from 27 ft at 39N 151W. This system to be gone from there.
Solid size is expected for Hawaii on the front end of this swell with less size for the US West Coast but a longer duration of swell.
Note: The early part of this swell blew east past Hawaii. That outcome should have been obvious just looking at fetch in the storm early in it's life, but we noticed the wavewatch model depicted sufficient spreading such that solid long period swell would hit the Islands, and assumed the model knew something we did not. That won't happen again. The directional spreading algorithms in the wavewatch model are suspect, and this is not the first time we've noticed this issue. From here forward, we will take a much more skeptical view of such projections from the model.
Hawaii (Focused on the North Shore of Oahu): Swell to be decent at sunrise Thurs (2/11) at 8.5 ft @ 16 secs (14 ft Hawaiian) fading through the day down to 8 ft @ 15 secs late (12 ft Hawaiian). Residuals on Fri (2/12) fading from 7.3 ft @ 14 secs (10 ft).
Swell Direction: 322-336 degs focused on 326-331 degrees
Wind: Per the hi-res local model - Northeast 7 kts (sideshore) at sunrise building and slowly turning slightly more offshore to 13 kts at 3 PM pushing 15 kts at sunset and almost fully offshore then.
North CA/Mavericks: Swell to peak starting Fri (2/12) 6 AM with pure swell 9.5-10.0 ft @ 18 secs (17-18 ft Hawaiian) building slightly as period drops through the day to 17 secs at sunset with swell holding at 10.5 ft @ 17 secs (17-18 ft Hawaiian).
Swell Direction: 294-296 degrees
Wind: Calm through the morning turning northwest 9 kts at 4 PM
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Tropical Update
No tropical systems of interest are being monitored.
California Nearshore Forecast
On Thursday AM (2/11) weak high pressure was over and just off the California coast generating light northwest winds at a few kts and expected to hold through the day. Low pressure was in the Gulf poised to impact the Pacific Northwest. Light rain possible later for extreme North CA. High pressure is to be building off California Friday with light winds nearshore until sunset, building to 15 kts over Central CA. Saturday (2/13) that new high pressure system is to strengthen off Central CA with north winds building over the North and Central Coast at 20-25 kts holding Sunday. SCal to remain protected. A light flow to take hold later Monday for North and Central CA as the high ridges north and fades, with calm winds expected Tues (1/16). Low pressure is to be building well offshore. By Wednesday south winds to be the norm from Morro Bay northward with rain developing for the same area and building through the evening as the front moves through. Snow developing for Tahoe at sunset and dumping well to sunrise. Light winds and clearing skies (early) Thursday (2/18).
South Pacific
Overview
Surface Analysis
No swell producing weather systems were occurring in the South Pacific.
Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
North Pacific
Beyond 72 hours a small gale is forecast developing 1000 nmiles west of San Francisco on Tues (2/16) with 35-40 kt northwest winds and seas building to 24 ft in the evening at 39N 141W. Fetch to fade Wed AM (2/17) but broaden just off the Central CA coast at 30-35 kts from the northwest with seas 21 ft at 37N 137W. The gale to rebuild in the evening starting to impact the North CA and Oregon Coasts with winds 40 kts and seas building to 23 ft at 40N 129W. The gale to be inland Thurs AM (2/18). It looks like the first hints of the return of winter are forecast for California.
South Pacific
Beyond 72 hours noswell producing fetch of interest is forecast.
More details to follow...
MJO/ENSO Update
Active MJO Poised for West Pacific
Kelvin Wave #5 Continues Developing
The Madden Julian Oscillation is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equatorial Pacific it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slack if not an outright reversal of trade winds and enhanced precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the.cgianet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to .cgiit resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for MJO activity (which directly relate to the potential for swell production).E.cgianation of data layout below: Major sections are organized in cause-and-effect sequence starting with wind conditions/forecasts for the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA - equatorial West Pacific) followed by subsurface ocean temperature conditions (i.e. monitoring for Kelvin Waves), then ocean surface temperature conditions (i.e Nino 1.2 and 3.4) followed by atmospheric co.cgiing analysis. The 1st paragraph in each section is new/recent data and is typically updated with each new forecast. The 2nd paragraph, where present, provides analysis and context and is updated as required.
Overview: A strong El Nino has developed. It began its lifecycle in late 2013 as a primer WWB and Kelvin Wave developed. Then in early 2014 a historically strong push by the Active Phase of the MJO resulted in a large Kelvin Wave, and anomalies continued in the Spring into early Summer transporting more warm water eastward. But the cycle faltered in July due to a protracted bout of the Inactive Phase of the MJO which enabled the upwelling phase of the Kelvin Wave cycle to manifest driving cooler water east, muting warm water buildup along the Ecuador coast. Still the warm water pipe remained open, but surface temperatures near the Galapagos never recovered and any atmospheric momentum was lost. Then in early 2015, another historically strong push from the MJO occurred, effectively a repeat of the early 2014 event, invigorating the warm water transport process and, adding more heat to an already anomalously warm surface pool off Ecuador. That pool built steadily in spurts, peaking in the Oct-Nov, timeframe, then began a slow decline. But even in Jan 2016, the strongest Westerly Wind Burst of the event occurred, with another Kelvin Wave currently in development. The paragraphs below describe the current status of various El Nino indicators, followed by a few paragraphs that tie all the pieces together and provide our analysis of what is to come.
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast:
Analysis from TAO Buoys: As of Wed (2/10) down at the surface, the TOA array (hard sensors reporting with a 24 hr lag) indicated mostly calm winds winds over a large area south of the equator from 140E to 165W south of 2S with one patch of embedded west winds at 170E. Otherwise east winds prevailed and strong over the entire zone from 2S northward. Inspecting the 00hr frame from the GFS model, northwest winds were 15 kts near 147E near 5S but otherwise winds were either north or calm. Anomalies per the TAO array were modest from the west from 160E to 165W on and south of the equator and neutral everywhere else. El Nino continued expressing itself weakly.
1 Week Forecast: No west anomalies are forecast in the KWGA until 2/16, and then building at modest levels. Actual winds per the GFS model are to generally be from the north in the southern KWGA through Sun (2/14). Then a robust and building area of west winds is to develop north of New Guinea Mon (2/15) and building through Tuesday reaching northward to the equator at 22-24 kts though weakening but building in coverage to the north at 20 kts Wed-Thurs (2/18). A muted El Nino pattern is still in effect today, though forecast to improve 5 days out. The only east anomalies that occurred this year in the KWGA were from 12/7-12/17 during an Inactive Phase of the MJO. Fortunately that ended quickly. Currently the Inactive Phase of the MJO is back in effect now.
Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East
Comparison of 2 Strong Westerly Wind Bursts (WWB)
On left the massive WWB in late June/July that created large Kelvin Wave #3. On right the current WWB that is generating Kelvin Wave #4.
Scales are a little different but notice anomalies in the July event at 12-14 m/s est (24-28 kts) and now in Oct at 13-14 m/s (26-28 kts)
(Click to Enlarge Images)
Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:
OLR Models: As of Wed (2/10) a building Active Phase of the MJO signal was over Indonesia and reaching into the West Pacific while a modest and weakening Inactive Phase was easing east from a point just south of Hawaii. The Statistic model forecasts the Inactive MJO dissipating in 5 days (2/16) with the Active Phase moving into the West Pacific though fading slightly and reaching the dateline 2 weeks out at moderate strength. The dynamic model depicts a similar initial setup, but with the Active Phase remaining strong and moving almost to the dateline 2 weeks out. This remains a significant improvement and suggest the Active Phase is to start enhancing El Nino 7 days from now (2/18).
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): The ECMF model indicates a moderately Active MJO signal over the Maritime Continent (Indonesia). It is to slowly steadily ease east and move to the West Pacific 2 weeks out holding it's energy along the way. The GEFS depicts the same generally pattern, but with the MJO strengthening steadily as it tracks east getting strong in the West Pacific 2 weeks out. This all suggests that we have moved past the Inactive Phase, and that the pattern is only going to get better from here forward. That is, west winds in the KWGA are to start being enhanced as the Active Phase moves to the dateline, fueling the jetstream.
40 Day Upper Level Model: We are ignoring this model because it has consistently failed to be accurate.
CFS Model beyond 1 week (850 mb wind): The Inactive Phase of the MJO is loosing control of the KWGA today (2/11). West wind anomalies are non-existent due to destructive interference by the Inactive MJO. The Inactive Phase is to start loosing influence in the next week (2/18), with west anomalies slowly regenerating starting 2/17. The Active Phase is to return fully by 2/26 with west anomalies again in control and solid if not a WWB status near 3/2, holding solidly through 3/19 but di.cgiaced east near 165W having minimal Kelvin Wave generation potential, typical of the mature phase of El Nino. That is, westerly anomalies slow track east until they migrate to the East Equatorial Pacific and the El Nino collapses. Still, they will help fuel the jetstream. The model depicts west anomalies fading to almost nothing 3/26 with no coherent MJO signal expected beyond.
CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc
Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (2/11) Actual temperatures remain decent and all sensors are on-line. A large pocket of 29 deg temps were at depth between 140E to 139W and holding with the 28 deg isotherm line moving east to 120W, the furthest east of this event. Anomaly wise things are steady. +2 deg anomalies are steady at 175W and points eastward. +4 deg anomalies are easing east from 137W and delineate the core of the rebuilding subsurface reservoir. +5 deg anomalies are easing east from 126W eastward with +6 degs anomalies no longer present. Cool subsurface waters previously down 150m at 120W retreated (0.0 deg line), but are now again flowing east, reaching east to 132W. Per the hi-res GODAS animation posted 2/7 the reservoir is rebuilding significantly with warm water still flowing into it from near the dateline and a +5 deg core attributable solely to WWB #5 at 100W-137W. +4 deg anomalies reach west to 153W. This remains a huge improvement. No +4 deg anomalies were pushing to the surface just yet but were close near 105W. This newly developing Kelvin Wave 35 has put the end of this ENSO event on hold for now.
Sea Surface Height Anomalies (SSHA): (2/7) The picture remains positive here too. 0-+5 cm anomalies have rebuilt west covering the entire equatorial Pacific starting at 162W (steady for the moment). Peak anomalies at +15 are between 135W to 105W easing east. +10 cm anomalies have rebuilt between 95W-150W and steady. The subsurface warm pool is recharging.
Upper Ocean Heat Content: (2/7) Temps are rebuilding. +0.5-1.0 deg anomalies are steady at 158W, an early effect of the WWB #5 and extending east to the Galapagos. +1.0-1.5 degs anomalies are retracting some from 152W. +1.5 deg anomalies are retracting some from 146W.+2.0 deg anomalies are present between 104W-136W, easing east. And a few pixels of +2.5 deg anomalies have redeveloped at 124W. The Downwelling Phase of Kelvin Wave #5 is underway. Temps have dropped from Ecuador to the Galapagos to 0.5-1.0 degs, hopefully the extent of the Upwelling Phase of Kelvin Wave #4. This El Nino remains westward di.cgiaced. The Downwelling Phase should not reach the reservoir for 2 months or about March 1. This might only extend the life of El Nino, or slow it's demise, but not add substantially to it. The peak of El Nino from a subsurface warming perspective has already passed.
A strong Kelvin Wave impacted the Ecuador Coast in May-June with a second somewhat weaker one impacting it in June. A third erupted in the Sept timeframe, but westward di.cgiaced just west of the Galapagos and not as overtly strong as one would expect, being rather a steady bleed rather than a gully washer. A pause in warming near Ecuador occurred starting mid August, attributable to the Upwelling Phase of the Kelvin Wave Cycle, ending on 9/20. Another equally strong WWB occurred peaking in 10/10 resulting in Kelvin Wave #4, which started erupting west of the Galapagos on 10/28 (much earlier than expected - due to it's westward di.cgiacement) peaking 11/17. Typical of the character of this El Nino event, it is maddeningly slow and under whelming if viewed on a daily basis. With WWB/Kelvin Wave #4, a more aggressive face of this El Nino appeared during the Oct-Nov timeframe. Then the Inactive Phase of the MJO took over on 10/31 holding into mid Dec, and with it the subsurface warm pool started discharging. Amazingly in sync with a building Active Phase of the MJO on 12/27 -1/15 another solid WWB occurred and Kelvin Wave #5 started building 1/20, likely extending the life of this El Nino.
Surface Water Temps: The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2: (2/10) The latest image indicates temps continuing to cool here east of 100W except for a few random pockets to +2.25 degs. Average temps were more in the +1.25-+1.5 deg range with one pocket of negative anomalies now present off Columbia. This continues to indicate the Kelvin Wave eruption area is westward di.cgiaced, with occasional pockets of warmer water sneaking in, but not steadily. Warming in this area peaked on 7/14 then crashed and has been trying to rebuild ever since.
Hi-res Nino 3.4: (2/10) The latest image depicts a solid area of +2.25 anomalies between 120W to 160W, and positioned mostly 2-3 degs north and south of the equator. Overall the pattern remains solidly impressive, but is steadily moving west and shrinking with temps east of 120W on the decline. All this warm water is attributable to Kelvin Wave #4 advecting west. Temps between 160W-180W are holding in coverage. +2.25 deg anomalies reach west to 177W. No +4 deg anomalies are indicated. This warm pool is advection west of warm water resulting from eruption of Kelvin Wave #4.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (2/9): A steady state pattern was depicted other than from 80W-100W where temps are cooling.
Hi-res Overview: (2/9) The El Nino signal is unmistakable but is no longer building. The main focal point has been eruption ports west of the Galapagos, but they are gone now with no +4.0 degree anomalies depicted. Those ports peaked first on 9/19, then more broadly on 11/19, then faded with no +4 deg anomalies remaining on 1/4, only to continue reappear 1/15, then dissipated 4 days later. The mid-zoomed image depicts the vent port area contains only +3 deg anomalies, and then only in patches. Most anomalies are +2-3 degs and concentrated from 120W to 170W (in the core of Nino3.4).
Kevin Wave #3 peaked on 9/19 with mult.cgie pockets of +5 degs anomalies occurring. The number and intensity of those vent ports faded, then redeveloped and increased significantly starting 10/28 and peaked on 11/23 attributable to Kelvin Wave #4. A slow fade is occurring now as Kelvin Wave #4 dissipates.
Historical Comparison of Strong El Nino's
Images built using 2 data sets - Monthly OISSTv.2 (left) & ERSSTv4 (right) This years data valid through November.
Both images/datasets suggest this is the warmest the NINO3.4 region has ever been. Now the question becomes: Will that translate in weather and swell? If the theory that temps in this area translate in stormier weather, then the answer is obvious.
Requisite Disclaimer - Current performance is no indication of future performance.
(Click to enlarge)
Kelvin Wave #3 Eruption Evolution
(click to enlarge)
Other Sources
TAO Data: +1.0 anomalies are in control over the entire equatorial East Pacific, the warmest in years, advecting west from the Galapagos covering the entire area west to the dateline and beyond (retracting to 173E). We're monitoring the +0.0 anomaly line on the equator to see if it's moving east. Today its gone but was previously at 140E. +1.5 deg anomalies are steady reaching unbroken to 178W. There is also a solid area of +2.0-2.5 deg anomalies extending from the Galapagos to 172W. A pocket of +3.0 deg anomalies is between 147W-159W (shrinking). No +3.5 anomalies are present. Overall the warm water signature is impressive but on the decline.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (2/11) Temps continue on the decline fading from +0.678. We're about ready to stop reporting this area. Previously they were rising some at +1.691 (2/1), up from +1.421 (1/28), up from +1.001 on 1/23, down from +1.835, down from +2.001 (1/7), up from +1.314 on 1/5, down hard from +1.836 on 12/27, down from +1.950 (12/22). Previously temps peaked for 5 days at +2.581 near 10/8 and previously spiked at +3.0 degs on 7/3, faded, then spiked again on 7/13 at +3.0 degs and yet again at +3.0 degs on 7/22.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: Today (2/11) temps were falling slightly at +2.582, down from +2.684 (2/9), up from +2.347 (2/3), up to +2.738 (1/23) up some at +2.438 on 1/14, up from +2.248 (1/11), down from +2.397 on 1/7. The all time peak was reached at +3.041 on 12z 11/19. This temp beat the previous all time high of +3.028 degs (12Z 11/17), up from + 2.986 as of (12Z 11/15) Nov 15. Overall temps have not been below +2.0 degs since 8/21. and are right at +2.9 or greater since 11/13. Very Impressive.
Nino3.0 CDAS Index Temps: (2/11) Today's value was fading some at +2.032, down from +2.418 (2/7), down from +2.686 on (1/23), down from +2.913 (1/19), up some from 1/14 when it was +2.894, up from +2.609 (1/11), down from +2.858 (1/2), down from +2.732 (12/31), compared to +2.697 on 12/27, down from +2.753 (12/22), up from +2.671 (12/19), up barely from +2.655 (12/15), down from +2.882 (12/12), steady since (12/10) when it was +2.942, down some from (12/8) when it was +2.988 and stead compared to the 12/6 value of +2.989, up slightly form +2.919 (12/3), up from +2.905 (12/1), down slightly from +2.990 (11/28) up from +2.855 (11/23), up some from + 2.799 on 11/21, and down from +2.957 on 11/19. So we have some distance to go to be comparable to '97 in this region.
Nino3.4 Weekly Temps (OISSTv2 - 1981-2010 base period - centered in Jan 3 1990): On 1/27 anomalies were +1.5 (Nino4), +2.5 (Nino3.4), +2.3 (Nino3). We're on a steady slow decline though Nino 4 is actually increasing some. On 1/20 temps were as follows: +1.5, +2.5, +2.3. On 1/13 temps were falling as follows: Nino4: +1.3, Nino34: +2.6, Nino3 +2.8. On 1/6 temps were falling as follows: Nino4: +1.4, Nino34: +2.6, Nino3 +2.7. On 12/30 temps were falling in Nino4: +1.5, Nino34: +2.7 (steady), and falling in Nino3: +2.6. On 12/23 temps were falling in all regions: Nino4: +1.6, Nino3.4: +2.7 and Nino3: +2.7 degs. On 12/16, temps were steady at +2.9 degs in both Nino3 and 3.4 and +1.7 in Nino 4. 12/9 was down slightly at +2.8 (Nino3.4) and +2.9 (Nino3). On 12/2 they were +2.9 (in both Nino3.0 and 3.4), down from 11/25 when they were +3.0 (in both Nino3.0 and 3.4), and down from the peak of +3.1 on 11/18, up from 11/11 when temps in Nino3 and 3.4 were both +3.0 degs. On 11/4 they were both +2.8. In '97 (11/26) peak temps in Nino3.4 reached +2.8. So we have beat that mark. But Nino3 temps in '97 reached +3.6-3.7 degs. We still have +0.6 degs to go.
SST Anomalies on 9/14/2015 and what is driving them from below
(Click to enlarge)
This years event is westward di.cgiaced somewhat like the '82/83 super El Nino event, but not as strongly so. The main evidence for this is the continued eruption of Kelvin Wave #3 west of the Galapagos with weakened warming east of there. This suggests the Walker circulation is not di.cgiaced as far east as in '97 but more like '82/83. Best analysis from upper level charts suggests it's core is at 110W. At this time we're unsure what the effects on rainfall would be. Total rainfall in San Francisco in '82/83 was 38.17" (+16.38") versus 47.22" in '97/98 (+25.43"). The long term average is 21.79". In LA in '82/83 it was 31.28" (+16.47) versus 31.01" in '97 (+16.2"). Long term average 14.81". Regardless, both events were well above average. This also suggests the core of storm production will be north of the most warming. So rather than the Eastern to Central Gulf of Alaska being the focus, it might be more in the Western Gulf. This is actually a good thing relative to California by perhaps giving resulting swells more room to groom themselves before hitting the coast. This might bode not so well for Hawaii, with large stormy conditions the result. Of course, this is just speculation at this time.
Nino3.4 Monthly Temps (January) The centered Nino3.4 temps for the month of Jan are +2.27 (beating '98 which was +2.21 and '83 which was +2.13). December was +2.31 (beating 97 which was +2.23 and 82 at +2.21). November was adjusted up to +2.36 degs (beating the highest temp recorded in '97 Nov - +2.32 degs and beating '82 +2.03 degs). This years Oct temps were adjusted upwards to +2.03 degs. See updated graphs above. As of right now for a one month average, this put this years El Nino stronger than '97 and therefore the strongest ever (based on a one month SST reading). The ONI uses a 3 month running average. That is the final determiner. Very interesting.
ONI For 2015 for the 3 month period centered on Sept, Oct, Nov and Dec the values are: +1.8, +2.1. +2.2 +2.3. For the same period in '97 the values were: +2.0, +2.2, +2.3 and +2.3. And for '82 the values were: +1.5, +1.9, +2.1 and +2.1. This make this years El Nino the second strongest on record since 1950.
Given the westward di.cgiacement in this years El Nino, we are interested in the relative effect on the jetstream as compared to previous strong ENSO events. That's is, how does one compare eastward versus westward di.cgiaced El Nino events. This years El Nino has relatively weak Nino1.2 anomalies compared to '82 and '97, but much warmer in Nino4. Do Nino3.4 temps accurately take that difference into account? We decided to find out. First we made an assumption: It is the total volume of warm water in the equatorial East Pacific, not just in Nino3.4 that defines the magnitude of the resulting El Nino atmospheric response. Whether that water is eastward or westward di.cgiaced, it makes no difference, as long as one can measure the total heating footprint, the bulk atmospheric response should be the same, just the center of core storm production would be either more east or west di.cgiaced.Next we needed to determine how to measure total heating footprint. There is a good historical record for anomalies in Nino1.2 (spanning 10 degrees longitude - 80W-90W), Nino3 (spanning 60 degrees - 90W-150W) and Nino4 (50 degrees - 150W to 150E). If one performs a weighted average of the SST anomalies for the 3 zones, a composite anomaly can be obtained. So we did that for recent strong El Nino events. The results indicate a pattern very similar to si.cgie Nino3.4 analysis, that this years event is in the top 2 for this time of year and the top 3 of all time (discounting the more historically correct 'centered' data). Here's the data:
Note: ERSSTv4 'centered' data is not available for Nino1, 3 and 4 regions, only Nino3.4.
Pacific Counter Current: As of 1/11 the current was strong from the west on the equator in one small pocket on the dateline with generalized west current from there to 135E. East current was from the Galapagos to 160W. Anomaly wise - One pocket of solid west anomalies was between 170E to 160W on the equator. Otherwise everything was effectively normal. There were no pockets of solid east anomalies indicated. This is somewhat impressive event compared to '97, because in '97, a massive La Nina signal was developing with hard east current over the entire equatorial Pacific with strong east anomalies in the east and on the dateline. Maybe we're setting ourselves up for a soft landing. That would be too good to be true.
SST Anomaly projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data depicts peak temps were reached at +2.95 degs on Nov 5, then faded slightly in early December to +2.8 holding to Jan1. The forecast indicates temp steadily fading from there to +2.5 on Feb 1, dropping to +2.0 by 2/15, then steadily declining from there falling before stabilizing at +0.5 degs in July and starting to rebuild in Oct. This would still be El Nino threshold temps. Hard to believe.
IRI Consensus Plume: The mid-Dec Plume depicts temps peaked in early Nov, at +2.9 degs. the consensus suggests temps to fall steadily from here forward, down to 0.0 by August and then going slightly negative from there.
See chart here - link.
Atmospheric Co.cgiing Index's (lagging indicators rather than driving oceanic change):
Daily Southern Oscillation Index (2/9): It was rising at +9.10. Of note: The 97 El Nino had daily values at -40 to -50 in early Nov with one spurt to -76 Jan 30-31st. A peak reading so far in this 2015 event was -49.70/-46.60 on Oct 3 & 4 and then -42.20 on 10/14 and -47.50 on 12/3. Another peak of -38.50 occurred on 1/2.
30 Day Average: Was rising from -10.71. The peak low was recorded on 10/9 at -22.72, beating the previous peak low of -20.95 on 8/21, with the previous lowest at -20.49 on 7/18/15. This is exactly where we want to be (at -20 or lower).
90 Day Average: Was rising some at -11.33. A record low of -19.28 occurred on 10/16 and was matched on 10/20. The previous record low was -18.56 on 9/16. This is the critical threshold we've been anticipating (values -18 or lower), providing yet more evidence of strong atmospheric co.cgiing. We want to see it hold there, and that goal is looking more possible. It has been at or below -10.0 since early July and -15.0 since 9/4 and on a steady fall ever since. The 90 day SOI bottomed out at a low reading on 8/5 at -14.17, then beat it on 9/2 at -15.23, beating that on 9/16 at -18.56 and now -19.28 on 10/16.
SOI Trend - Darwin (looking for high pressure here): A neutral pressure pattern was near Darwin on 2/11 and is to hold for the next week. It is relative high pressure over Australia in NHemi winter months that is the preferred pattern for El Nino development in the Pacific.
SOI trend - Tahiti (looking for low pressure here): On 2/11 weak high pressure was south of Tahiti and is to slowly fade with weak low pressure setting up in it's.cgiace by Sun (2/14) and holding for the foreseeable future. The SOI is expected to start fading based on the Tahiti contribution. If a Super El Nino is in development one would want to see continuous local lows near or over Tahiti.
SOI 1 week Forecast: The net result is to be a falling SOI attributable mainly to lower pressure forecast south of Tahiti and the building Active Phase of the MJO in the West Pacific.
ESPI (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation): (2/11) Today's value was +1.27, down from +1.43 (2/9), down from +1.80 (2/3), down from +1.98 (1/28), down from +2.15 (1/23), down from +2.24 (1/21), and down from it's recent peak at +2.33 on 1/14. Previously it was up from +2.07 on 1/7 up from +1.67 12/27, and has been on a steady rise for 4 weeks now. This is a good sign. On 12/15 it was at +1.17, down from +1.25 (12/10), after rising through 12/8 to +1.37, up from +0.89 (12/1), up from +0.57 (11/23), down from +0.97 (11/15). This is a good trend suggesting that perhaps we're recouping from the lowest we've seen it on 12/1. Maybe the Inactive MJO in the Pacific is fading. But it is also typical for the ESPI to start falling as we move into Winter. This is primarily a summer and early Fall index during El Nino years. The most recent high value was +2.40 on Sat (10/17). It had been holding in the +1.95-2.20 range for weeks (thru 10/13) with only minor fluctuation. The ESPI was steady in the +2.5 range through 8/10, then began falling, to +2.42 on 8/18 and bottoming out at +1.78 on 8/26. It started rebuilding on 8/29 at +1.89 holding at +1.87 on 9/18 and up to +2.2 on 9/24 reaching +2.3 on 9/26, then down to 2.02 on 9/29. Historically the peak of the '82 El Nino was +2.2 and the '97 event +2.85. This suggests the '15 El Nino is reasonably well co.cgied with the atmosphere, more so than some of the other indices indicate. Monthly ESPI values are as follows: July 3.76, Aug 2.34, Sept 2.1, Oct 2.3. '97 had two peak values at +2.99 in Aug and +3.06 in Sept. 2015 had +3.7 in July followed by +2.33 and +2.20 in Aug and Sept and 2.3 in Oct. to complete with '97.
Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) (Jan) These numbers were released Feb 5th and indicate the index increased slightly by 0.08 to +2.20, holding it in the third highest since 1950 behind the '82/83 and '97/98 El Ninos. Since it has not reached the +3.0 standard deviation level, it is NOT considered a Super El Nino, nor is it expected to reach that status. The Nov ranking was +2.31, up barely from +2.23 (Oct), down from it's peak of +2.53 in Sept, and from +2.37 in Aug. The top 6 events since 1950 in order are: '97, '82, '15, '91, '86, and '72 with '97 and '82 classified as 'Super El Nino's' because they reached 3 standard deviations (SD) above normal. '91 and '86 were at about 2.2 and 2.1 respectively with '72 peaking at 1.8 SD's above the norm.
North Pacific Jetstream (2/11) Detailed analysis is in the NPac Short Term Forecast above. The jet looks very good and is forecast to hold.
Comparing the 2015 El Nino to '82 and '97
(Click to enlarge)
Conclusion: WWB #3 peaked on July 4, with the resulting Kelvin Wave peaking on Sept 19 west of the Galapagos, or a roughly 2.5 month travel time. Likewise those warm waters advected into Nino3.4, peaking about one month later, or 10/19. Peak atmospheric influence should occur approximately 2 months later or 12/20. Then WWB #4 developed of near equal strength, peaking on 10/15, which resulted in formation of Kelvin Wave #4. Using the same te.cgiate, peak eruption of Kelvin Wave #4 is expected on 12/30/2015 (westward di.cgiaced), and advecting into Nino3.4 and peaking roughly 1/30/2016 with peak atmospheric influence on approx 3/30/2016. This suggests peak atmospheric perturbation will occur in the window from 12/2/2015-4/2/2016, or well di.cgiaced later in the Winter as compared to the '97/98 event, and somewhat like the '82/83 event. The Inactive Phase of the MJO took control 10/31, and is expected to usher in the Upwelling Phase of the Kelvin wave Cycle starting 1/31/16. The resultant slackening of peak water temps won't reach Nino3.4 till 3/1, and won't hit the atmosphere till 5/1. By then, the effective lifecycle of El Nino for the Winter of 2015-2016 will be over. And any westerly anomalies projected for the KWGA in the Dec-Jan 2016 timeframe will contribute nothing to Kelvin Wave production and jetstream a.cgiification just due to the time it will take for a resulting Kelvin Wave to migrate east. But those anomalies could help the atmosphere like the Active Phase of the MJO does, fueling jetstream energy. That is the primary contribution of westerly anomalies from here forward.
In terms of comparative strength based on Nino3.4 temps, 2015 is in the same ballpark based on OISSTv2 weekly data. Based on ERSSTv4 data (a more conservative data source) '97 peaked at +2.32 degs with 4 months of +2.0 degs anomalies and '82 at +2.21 degs with 2 months temps greater than +2.0 degs. 2015 is looking to produce a +2.1 degree one month average based on very rough data today, with a huge reservoir of anomalies still venting to the surface and Kevin Wave #4 still migrating east. But, coverage of warmer than normal water and it's affect on the atmosphere is not limited to just the Nino3.4 area. Nino3 and Nino1.2.cgiay a role. It's is the total areal coverage of the warm water footprint that defines the impact on the atmosphere. Temps in Nino3 in this years event are at +3.0 degs, but peaked at +3.7 degs in '97. Conversely temps in Nino 4 in this years event beats temps in '97. All graphed out, one gets the sense that '97 and 2015 are very different events, but similar in total atmospheric effect. It's not just magnitude of the peak temps that make a difference atmospherically, but also the duration of those anomalies. The longer and stronger the anomalies, the greater the atmospheric response. At this time the expected atmospheric affects should be significant, though di.cgiaced somewhat later in the season.
See imagery in the ENSO Powertool
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External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave
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