PACIFIC OVERVIEW
On Tuesday (7/11) Northern CA surf was waist high with a light onshore breeze. South facing breaks in Santa Cruz were near flat with rare waist high sets. Central California surf was up to waist high. Southern CA breaks from Santa Barbara to just north of LA were near flat with best breaks thigh up to waist high on the sets. The LA Area southward to Orange County was thigh high with best breaks to waist high. Southward from Orange County into San Diego best breaks were thigh to waist high. The North Shore of Oahu was flat. The South Shore was waist high to chest high on inconsistent sets. The East Shore was waist high or so.
There was no real surf in California with only a little windswell hitting north of Pt Conception. Hawaii was seeing a little bit of southern hemi swell, but it was weak. The South Pacific remains locked down in an unfavorable jetstream pattern with no end in sight. Bit's and pieces of tiny small energy are tracking up the Tasman Sea and under New Zealand towards Hawaii, but not expected to provide much there and even less for California. The Gulf of Alaska is to send some windswell towards North/Central CA later in the week mixed with building local windswell, providing something to ride. But beyond that nothing much is modeled. See details below...
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis.cgius forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
North Pacific
Overview
Tuesdays jetstream charts (7/11) indicated a very weak flow providing no support for surface level gale development for the next 7 days. A bit of a ridge was north of Hawaii suggesting a building high pressure pattern at the surface, and continued windswell for the east side of the Hawaiian Islands. Otherwise detailed monitoring for the North Pacific is on an exception basis through the summer.
At the surface on Tuesday (7/11) high pressure at 1028 mbs remained centered just due north of Hawaii barely ridging into the California coast. This configuration was generating 15-20 kts north winds along the North/Central CA coast and 20 kts easterly trades over the Hawaiian Islands producing short period windswell in both locations. Low pressure at 1000 mbs was well north of Hawaii just pushing into the Northern Gulf of Alaska with 25 kt northwest winds aimed towards the Pacific Northwest and North CA. Over the next 72 hours through Friday (7/14) the high is to hold it's ground north of Hawaii continuing trades over the Islands though drifting a bit west limiting the depth of the windfield. Winds expected dropping to the 15 kts range while the previously mention low pushes cleanly into the Gulf of Alaska then into Southwest Canada with 25 kt northwest winds targeting the Pacific Northwest and Northern California through early Thursday then fading out. Small windswell (9 sec) could push towards the aforementioned locations late in the workweek and into the weekend but likely mixed with local windswell as the Hawaiian High gets a little better foothold along the California coast.
Tropics
Tropical Storm Bud was 180 nmiles south-southeast of the island of Clarion (well south of Cabo San Lucas) tracking northwest at 9 kts with sustained winds 50 kts producing 14 ft seas. Official guidance suggest Bud to turn more to the west reaching minimal hurricane strength within 24 hours, then fading 48 hours later. The GFS model contrarily suggests Bud tracking northwest tracking off and parallel to the Baja coast fading a week out mid-way up the peninsula. If this scenario evolves, surf for the Southern CA coast would seem likely, but that looks like a long shot right now. Will monitor.
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
California Offshore Forecast
Northwest wind continues along the coast of North and Central CA though lighter than in days previous. Wind in the 10 kt range is forecast to hold through Wednesday (7/12). But as low pressure to the north fades out on Thursday, a renewed northwesterly flow to set up outside the Channel Islands up into North and Central CA with a 25 kt core developing off Cape Mendocino by Friday. Fortunately winds to fade near the coast, with all fetch remaining north of Pt Reyes. Winds to push near the 30 kt range off the Cape my next Tuesday with windswell potential holding and local winds remaining light to slightly eddy like (southwest). Decent windswell generation potential with improving local conditions.
The detailed 5 Day Wind Forecast is included with the surf & swell overview in the QuikCAST's.
South Pacific
Overview
On Tuesday (7/11) the unfavorable jetstream pattern continued unchanged with a .cgiit jetstream flow in.cgiace over the entire South Pacific. The southern branch had winds only up to 90 kts and was traversing Antarctic Ice over the entire width of the South Pacific. The Northern branch remained dominant with winds generally 130-140 kts flowing flat from off Australia over southern Chile. No significant troughs or areas of interest were indicated capable of supporting surface level storm or gale development. Over the next 72 hours through Friday (7/14) the southern branch to continue it's track over Antarctic Ice while the northern branch looses a little more energy with winds barely 130 kts and continuing flat west to east reinforcing the unproductive pattern at the surface. Beyond 72 hours no significant change is forecast other than perhaps a slight hint of a trough building under New Zealand mid-next week.
At the surface on Tuesday (7/11) high pressure at 1024 mbs was centered over the South-Central Pacific ridging south to near the Ross Ice Shelf and locking down the entire area east of 170W, or most of the South Pacific. Over the next 72 the that high to build to 1032 mbs continuing the lockdown, with low pressure pushing west to east over the Ross Ice Shelf and isolated from ice free waters. Overall a quiet pattern for the greater South Pacific with no indication of any swell generation suggested.
Previous Mini Fetch Events
Some fleeting fetch developed under New Zealand late Sunday (4/3) into Monday at 45 kts decaying to 30 kts, aimed somewhat towards Hawaii. 28 ft seas were modeled Monday at 57S 170E building in areal coverage in the evening with seas to 29 ft at 57S 175E then fading fast from 28 ft Tuesday AM (7/4) at 56S 178W. This was really just the decaying remnants of a stronger storm that formed under Australia. Limited swell likely pushing towards Hawaii with swell arriving Tuesday (7/11) at 1.6 ft @ 16 secs (2.5 ft faces) from 207 degrees.
On Thursday (7/6) a decent storm was south of Tasmania generating up to 50 kts winds and up to 40 ft seas bound for Fiji at a bit of a tangent angle, with dribbles possible for Hawaii after being ground down by Fiji and surrounding Islands. That swell to arrive on the South Shore late on Thursday (7/13) peaking Saturday (7/15) with swell 2.3 ft @ 16 secs (3.0-3.5 ft faces) from 210 degrees. This to be a long-laster, but very inconsistent. At least it's something rideable.
On Sunday PM (7/9) a tiny low developed under New Zealand building to 968 mbs while tracking slowly southeast producing 55 kt winds aimed east to northeast over a tiny area for 24 hours then fading to 45 kts before the systems crashed into the Ross Ice Shelf. Seas were modeled at 32-36 ft for 30 hours from 55S 175E tracking to 60S 160W suggesting tiny swell might be heading towards Hawaii. But the fact that the fetch was tracking southeast away from the Islands should surely limit swell generation capacity for the Islands. Background swell likely for Hawaii around 7/24 with period 16 secs from 200 degrees, but likely not hardly noticeable.
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
North Pacific
Beyond 72 hours high pressure to push back to the east from a position north of Hawaii fueling a building gradient off Cape Mendocino CA with north winds there to near 30 kts by Wednesday (7/19). Windswell holding into the week for north and Central CA. Trades to significantly falter over the Hawaiian Islands fading to 15 kts or less by this Saturday (7/15) eliminating windswell generation there well into next week.
South Pacific
Beyond 72 hours the unfavorable ridge in the upper levels is to continue driving low pressure well to the south of ice free waters while high pressure controls the nor storm corridor between 60-40S. Virtually no swell producing system forecast. A gale is forecast developing under New Zealand Tuesday (7/18) pushing 45 kt winds to the northeast, but odds of this occurring a nil this far into the future.
Details to follow...
Local Interest
New Content - QuikCAST's and Satellite Altimetry: Stormsurf has been busy this winter putting some new things together. First up is two new QuikCAST's for the Northeast US Coast, one for Cape Hatteras-to-Virginia Beach and another for New Jersey-to-New York. Check them out Here
Also we now provide Jason-1 Altimetry data overlaid on our Wavewatch III wave models. Take a look Here
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Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table
