PACIFIC OVERVIEW
On Tuesday (10/25) Northern CA surf was shoulder to head high and wind ruffled. South facing breaks were shoulder to head high. Central California surf was head high to 2 ft overhead. Southern CA breaks from Santa Barbara to just north of LA were waist high and maybe more at the best breaks. The LA area southward into Orange County was waist to chest high. Southward to San Diego waves were waist to chest high with head high sets. The North Shore of Oahu was waist it chest high. The South Shore was flat. The East Shore was waist to chest high.
In general surf was pretty small in all locations. Swell #1 is gone with residual windswell still pushing south from the Gulf into California and Hawaii. A weak gale ia pushing through the Gulf of Alaska offering more of the same for California with a stronger one on the charts for Thursday. Also a moderate gale is forecast to push off Kamchatka Wednesday fading as it tracks to the dateline, providing some hope for Hawaii. But in all nothing noteworthy suggested. See details below...
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis.cgius forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
North Pacific
Overview
On Tuesday (10/25) the jetstream was flowing generally flat from off the Kuril Islands east to the Gulf of Alaska where a steep trough was positioned just off the Pacific Northwest. Winds at 150 kts were flowing under it then turning sha.cgiy north and into Canada. This trough is expected to get broader over the coming days with winds continuing up to 150 kts flowing into it, then the whole thing is to move over North California on Friday and fade. Some surface level storm development potential suggested off Vancouver Thursday and into Friday before the upper flow pushes onshore. A weak zonal (flat) flow expected to follow over the Pacific through the weekend with more energy building Tuesday ridging slightly over the dateline with winds 180 kts then dipping as it tracks into the Gulf, suggesting a return of a favorable pattern for the US west coast perhaps by late in the workweek.
Today at the surface moderate high pressure at 1024 mbs was sitting over the dateline ridging a bit east to north of Hawaii. Low pressure at 996 mbs was in the Gulf of Alaska and another was building west of the Kuril's over Siberia. None was generating any windswell of interest.
By Wednesday (10/26) things start to get somewhat more interesting with a low building in the Gulf and another pushing off the Kuril Islands. The Gulf low is to drop to 992 mbs with winds 20-25 kts taking aim on California and the Pacific Northwest. By Thursday (10/27) pressure is to drop to 980 mbs with winds 45-50 kts over a tiny area aimed at north CA and on the very northern edge of the swell window there generating near 30 ft seas pushing south. This system to move onshore on Friday over South Canada. Some swell possible for California over the weekend if this comes to pass.
Also on Wednesday (10/26) a 980 mb gale low is to push off Kamchatka tracking east with 35-40 kts winds developing in it's south quadrant aimed due east. The low to be in the Bering Sea near the dateline on Thursday (10/27) with winds south of the Aleutians fading to 30-35 kts aimed due east but not before a brief burst of 30 ft seas are generated. These winds and seas are to be aimed reasonably swell down the 319-325 degree great circle paths to Hawaii. This system to fade through Friday as it moves towards the Gulf of Alaska. Some decent swell to be pushing southeast towards Hawaii if this develops as forecast.
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
California Offshore Forecast
On Tuesday (10/25) the models suggest that wave after wave of low pressure is to track into the Gulf (4 in the next week) all trying to punch a hole in high pressure that is to hold tight of the California coast at 1022-1024 mbs. At some point they will succeed, but for now the high is to retain control through at least next Tuesday (11/1). There are hints of rain in the forecast for San Francisco northward, but nothing strong. Since neither the fronts are strong nor is the protective high, a neutral pressure pattern is to prevail with no windswell producing fetch forecast over the offshore waters.
The 5 Day wind forecast is now included with the surf & swell overview in the QuikCAST's.
South Pacific
Overview
On Tuesday (10/25) a last little weak low was passing under New Zealand tracking northeast expected to produce 25 ft seas this evening into Wednesday AM (10/26) then fading out as it passes south of Hawaii. Perhaps some limited background swell to push north towards Hawaii. Otherwise no swell of interest indicated.
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
North Pacific
Beyond 72 hours on Sunday (10/30) another low is forecast to build over Kamchatka pushing east following it's predecessor into the Bering Sea. Another brief spurt of 40-45 kt winds are forecast south of the Aleutians aimed well at Hawaii, then fading fast as the low tracks over the dateline. remnants of this system are to spill south into the Gulf of Alaska early the following week providing some potential there, but how much is far from certain.
South Pacific
At the surface beyond 72 hours the models depict a moderate storm pushing under New Zealand a well out, but the odds of that happening are one in a million. Otherwise no swell producing fetch forecast.
Details to follow...
Local Interest
New Stormsurf Wave & Weather Models have been Released: After a year of development we're released our newest installment of Regional and Local wave models. Read more here.
Rob Gilley Photgraphy: Please take amoment to check out the selection of limited print images availabe at Rob Gilleys webite. All images in the 2005 line were taken by Rob Gilley, an 19 year Surfer Magazine staff photographer, and are personally signed and numbered by him: http://www.pacificsurfgallery.com
Tutorial on the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) Presented by Dr. Roland Madden: If you're interested in El Nino and the MJO, have a basic understanding of El Nino, and you have broadband connection, audio and Macromedia Flash installed, then the following presentation is a must see. Dr Madden present a great overview of how the MJO works. And there's nothing like hearing it straight from the founders mouth. Link here: http://meted.ucar.edu/climate/mjo/mjonav0.htm
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Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table
