PACIFIC OVERVIEW
On Thursday (11/3) Northern CA surf was head high to 1 ft over and reasonably clean. And on Wednesday PM at Mavericks a surfer was attached by presumably a great white but fortunately got away unscathed. South facing breaks were waist to chest high. Central California surf was waist to chest high too. Southern CA breaks from Santa Barbara to just north of LA were waist to chest high at the best breaks though most spots were smaller. The LA area southward into Orange County was waist high at the best breaks. Southward to San Diego waves were waist high. The North Shore of Oahu was waist high. The South Shore was waist to chest high. The East Shore was head high to 1 ft overhead.
Kinda middling surf north of Pt Conception, CA with east windswell in control of Hawaii. Northwest windswell from the Gulf of Alaska expected to take control of California starting Friday and continue unabated through the weekend and beyond while east windswell takes hold of Hawaii. For being well into the Fall season the pattern is slacking and there no suggestion of any major change coming. See details below...
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis.cgius forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
North Pacific
Overview
On Thursday (11/3) the jet was positioned well to the south off Japan then tracking northeast forming a moderate ridge centered north of Hawaii but not crossing over the Aleutians. Then is dipped south again into the eastern Gulf of Alaska with winds strongest there at only 120-130 kts and pushing into Oregon. In all it was fairly unexciting. This same pattern to hold through the weekend with the ridge slowly drifting east and finally pushing into the Gulf of Alaska by Tuesday (11/8) and moderating. It's looking to push inland late in the workweek. Weak low pressure at the surface to likely be confined to the dips, namely the Gulf of Alaska. The last few frames of the 180 hr run of the model suggest stronger energy building off Japan tracking flat to the east, possibly signaling improvements long term, but that is likely just wishful thinking.
Today at the surface high pressure at 1028 mbs was in control of the waters north of Hawaii and the dateline up to the Aleutians with lower pressure at 992 mbs in the Gulf of Alaska reflecting the same pattern evidenced above in the jetstream. East to northeast winds off the south side of the high were blowing into the Hawaiian Islands at 20-25 kts generating short period windswell there. Otherwise the only source of something that resembled real swell was along the intersection of that same high pressure system and lower pressure in the Gulf of Alaska. This was generating a decent fetch of 30-35 kt northwest winds aimed right at North California generating 20 ft seas (at 11-13 secs) headed that same way. Another similar fetch if forecast on Friday dropping southeast through the Gulf aimed like before with 20 ft seas also forecast. And yet another equivalent pulse is forecast Sunday (11/6). In all, this to result in a steady stream of 11-13 sec energy dropping through the Gulf impacting the Pacific Northwest down through Pt Conception with little residuals reaching into exposed breaks in Southern CA well into next week. No other swell producing systems forecast.
Though high pressure north of Hawaii is to fade on Saturday with the associated trades dissipating with it, the high is to be backed up by another equally strong 1032 mb high dropping from the dateline southeast reaching a point north of Hawaii late Sunday (11/6) with northeast winds on the rise again. This to result in continued short period windswell well into next workweek.
See QuikCAST for details.
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
California Offshore Forecast
On Thursday (11/3) the models suggest a weak front to pass through North CA in the evening with a wall of northwest winds behind it, but not reaching any further south than Pt Reyes and then rapidly retreating. High pressure north of Hawaii to continue providing a thin layer of protection from a far more disturbed weather pattern north in the Gulf. The result is to be light winds locally through the weekend. But that's to change Monday (11/7) as that high starts tracking east and a gradient building along the California coast. North winds at 20 kts expected through Tuesday, then finally giving way as the high starts pushing inland over North CA.
The 5 Day wind forecast is now included with the surf & swell overview in the QuikCAST's.
South Pacific
Overview
On Thursday (11/3) a moderate 964 mb gale low was pushing under New Zealand with 30-35 kt fetch aimed northeast producing seas modeled at 28 ft. This is the culmination of 2 previous days of lesser fetch and seas and has produced some degree of decent summer time utility swell pushing north towards Hawaii with period in the 14-16 sec range. This system to dissipate on Friday. Swell arrival expected along Hawaii's South Shore on Thursday (11/10) with swell possibly up to 3 ft @ 16 secs late (4-5 ft faces). Will monitor.
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
North Pacific
Beyond 72 hours two more mini-lows are forecast to drop through the Gulf Tuesday (11/8) and Thursday (11/10) with winds in the 35 kt range and seas 22 ft. Certainly nothing to get too worked up over. And after than the charts show pure calm with no swell producing fetch suggested by late in the next week. But as the upper level charts suggests, a upper trough to start building off Japan and low pressure is to be starting to organizing at the surface, suggesting a major reorganization of the pattern and hopefully better opportunities beyond.
South Pacific
At the surface beyond 72 hours the models depict yet another pulse of energy pushing under New Zealand next Monday (11/7) with pressure 968 mbs and winds 35 to near 45 kts for near 36 hours generating 29 ft seas aimed well at Hawaii and continuing at lesser levels through Thursday (11/10). If this develops yet another batch of utility class swell could push north towards Hawaii.
Details to follow...
Local Interest
Stormsurf Weather Model Update: Over the weekend (10/30) we moved new new code into production that should dramatically improve the efficiency and reliability of our weather models. We've had problems with them not keeping in-sync with the wave models. Hopefully that problem is now resolved though we're still dependent on NOAA data servers just like everyone else. What this fix does do is provide the infrastructure now to rapidly expand our offering of weather models, enabling more detailed global coverage. We will be working on that as time permits.
Rob Gilley Photgraphy: Please take amoment to check out the selection of limited print images availabe at Rob Gilleys webite. All images in the 2005 line were taken by Rob Gilley, an 19 year Surfer Magazine staff photographer, and are personally signed and numbered by him: http://www.pacificsurfgallery.com
Tutorial on the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) Presented by Dr. Roland Madden: If you're interested in El Nino and the MJO, have a basic understanding of El Nino, and you have broadband connection, audio and Macromedia Flash installed, then the following presentation is a must see. Dr Madden present a great overview of how the MJO works. And there's nothing like hearing it straight from the founders mouth. Link here: http://meted.ucar.edu/climate/mjo/mjonav0.htm
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Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table
