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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Monday, March 25, 2024 1:50 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
3.7 - California & 3.2 - Hawaii
Using the 'Winter' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    
Issued for Week of Monday 3/25 thru Sun 3/31
Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

Local Gale for CA
4th Japan Swell Hitting HI

BUOY ROUNDUP
Monday, March 25, 2024 :

  • Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt): Seas were 4.8 ft @ 16.7 secs with swell 3.9 ft @ 17.1 secs from 289 degrees. Water temp 75.9 (Barbers Pt), 75.7 (Pearl Harbor 233), NA (Lani 239).
  • Buoy 187 (Pauwela): Seas were 8.5 ft @ 18.2 secs with swell 2.5 ft @ 17.7 secs from 290 degrees. Water temp 75.2 degs
  • Buoy 106 (Waimea)/Buoy 202 (Hanalei): Seas were 7.7 ft @ 16.7 secs with swell 5.9 ft @ 16.3 secs from 307 degrees. Water temp 75.6 degs
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 7.1 ft @ 6.7 secs with swell 4.7 ft @ 7.8 secs from 258 degrees. Wind northwest at 18-20 kts. Water temperature 56.3 degs, 55.6 (Harvest 071), 56.7 (Topanga 103), 54.9 (Long Beach 215), 56.3 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 58.1 (Del Mar 153), 59.0 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 3.9 ft @ 15.1 secs from 266 degrees. At E. Santa Barbara (46053) swell was 4.4 ft @ 9.6 secs from 278 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 4.1 ft @ 9.3 secs from 267 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 4.3 ft @ 9.3 secs from 268 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 7.7 ft @ 10.4 secs from 274 degrees. Water temperature was 57.6 degrees (Imperial Beach).
  • Buoy 029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 7.5 ft @ 10.5 secs with swell 2.9 ft @ 15.9 secs from 291 degrees. Wind northwest at 16-20 kts (Bodega Bay 46013) and NW at 13-15 kts (Half Moon Bay 1801589) and WNW at 14 kts (Monterey Bay (46092). Water temp NA (Bodega Bay 46013), 54.3 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 54.0 (San Francisco 46026), 56.7 (SF Bar 142), 54.7 (1801589) and 55.4 (Monterey Bay 46092).

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Monday (3/25) in North and Central CA waves were head high to 1 ft overhead and warbled and chopped with poor form and mushed. Protected breaks were chest to head high and lined up but real warbled and mushed with poor form. At Santa Cruz surf was waist to maybe chest high and weakly lined up but warbled and mushed but with reasonably clean conditions. In Southern California/Ventura waves were waist high on the sets and lined up with decent form but very warbled and mushed if not gutless even though local winds was calm. Central Orange County had waves at chest to head high and lined up but with poor form and pretty warbled and mushed from brisk southerly wind. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had waves at thigh high and soft and weak and modestly warbled and not rideable. North San Diego had waves at head high to 1 ft overhead at top breaks and somewhat lined up with modest form and soft with some warble in the water. Oahu's North Shore had waves at double overhead plus on the sets and lined up with decent form and fairly clean but a little raw. The South Shore was up to waist high on the sets and slightly lined up with decent form and clean. The East Shore was getting east tradewind windswell at head high and chopped from strong east trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Monday (3/25) California was getting swell from a gale developing off Japan tracking east but not reaching the dateline Mon-Wed (3/20) but with only 27 ft seas aimed east (Third Japan Gale). And Hawaii was getting the leading edge of swell from a gale that developed on the same track Wed-Sat (3/23) with 38 ft seas aimed east and making it just east of the dateline. And yet another gael is forecast developing off South Oregon Tues-Thurs (3/28) with 26 ft seas aimed southeast with secondary energy develop off California Fri-Sat (3/30) with 18 ft seas aimed southeast. And another is forecast developing while tracking northeast towards the North Dateline Region Wed-Thurs (3/28) with up to 26 ft seas aimed east-northeast and not very impressive. After that things really settle down. Down south a gale developed under New Zealand Wed-Thurs (3/21) with up to 32 ft seas aimed east, but not expected to radiate well up into the Northern Hemisphere. And another developed in the far Southeast Pacific Fri-Sat (3/23) with up to 30 ft seas aimed well north. But after that nothing is forecast. Summer is trying to get an early start while Winter fades some.

See all the details below...

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Monday (3/25) the jet was consolidated from Japan pushing into North CA on the 43N latitude line with winds 150 kts forming a broad trough just east of the dateline supportive of gale development. Over the next 72 hours that trough is to continue tracking east and developing more off North California Wed-Thurs (3/28( supportive of gale development and weather for CA beyond while a new trough develops off Japan tracking east Wed-Thurs (3/28) being fed by 160 kts winds supportive of gale development. Beyond 72 hours starting Fri (3/29) the Japan trough is to track northeast reaching the North Dateline region still supportive of gael development but then fading fast while a ridge builds over the Western Gulf reaching up to the East Aleutians with the jet then falling southeast still feeding a trough off the US West Coast with 130 kt winds offering continued support for gale formation and weather into the California with a backdoor trough developing off Central CA on Sat (3/30) supporting weather and gale formation finally moving inland over Central CA on Mon (4/1). But, back to the west on Fri (3/29) the jet is to start splitting on the dateline and fully split from west of the dateline into the US West Coast on Mon (4/1) suggesting a weak storm pattern beyond, likely attributable to the MJO moving from the Pacific east into the Atlantic.

Surface Analysis
On Monday (3/25) micro swell was hitting California originating from a third gale that previously tracked off Japan (see Third Japan Gale below) but lost in local windswell. And swell from a fourth system was hitting Hawaii (see Fourth Japan Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours swell from the Fourth Japan Gale is to propagate towards and into California. And 2 more gale are forecast in the Pacific (see California Local Gale and the Final Japan Gale below).

California Local Gale
And a small gale is forecast developing in the Gulf Tues AM (3/26) with 25-30 kt northwest winds over a small area and seas building. In the evening northwest winds to be 30 kts off the Pacific Northwest with seas building from 20 ft at 45.5N 141W aimed east. On Wed AM (3/27) the gale is to be organizing off Oregon with 40 kt west winds and seas 26 ft at 45N 138.25W aimed east. The gale is to weaken in the afternoon off the OR-CA border with northwest winds 35+ kts and seas 25 ft at 43N 134W aimed southeast. On Thurs AM (3/28) the gale is to be fading some off Oregon with 30 kt northwest winds off the coast there and seas 22 ft at 42N 131.5W aimed southeast with additional energy moving in from the west. In the evening secondary fetch is to build well of North CA from the northwest at 35 kts with developing while falling southeast. On Fri AM (3/29) northwest fetch is to fall southeast at 35-40 kts with seas building to 18 ft at 36N 133W off Central CA targeting Central and Southern CA. The gale is to build in the evening stalled off San Francisco with 30-35 kt northwest winds and seas 19-20 ft at 35N 130W targeting Southern CA and Baja well. On Sat AM (3/30) fetch is to hold positioned off SF at 30-35 kts from the northwest with seas 18 ft at 35N 133W targeting the same area. The gale to fade in the evening with barely 30 kt northwest winds and seas 19 ft at 35N 131W aimed south. Raw proto-swell possible for the California.

North CA: Rough data suggests raw swell on Sat (3/30) at 8.0 ft @ 13 secs early (8.0 ft). Swell fading on Sun (3/31) from 5.0 ft @ 8 secs (3.5 ft). Swell Direction: 250 degrees

 

Final Japan Gale
And yet another ill formed gale is forecast pushing east off Japan Wed AM (3/27) with west winds 40 kts and seas building from 26 ft at 36N 163E aimed east. In the evening the gale is to be racing northeast with 35-40 kt west winds and seas 27 ft at 41N 173.25E aimed east. On Thurs AM (3/28) the gale is to be lifting northeast over the North Dateline region with 35-40 kts west winds and seas 26 ft up at 47.5N 179W aimed east. In the evening west winds to build to 50 kts while impacting the Central Aleutians with seas 33 ft at 51.25N 179.5W aimed east. The gale to move into the Bering Sea after that. Something to monitor.

 

Third Japan Gale
And yet another gale started building while pushing off Japan Mon PM (3/18) with 40 kt west winds and seas building from 25 ft at 40.5N 153.5E aimed east. On Tues AM (3/19) west winds were fading in coverage at 35-40 kts with seas 27 ft over a modest sized area at 41.5N 157.5E aimed east. Fetch held in the evening from 35-40 kts with seas 27 ft at 38.5N 161E aimed east. Fetch was fading Wed AM (3/20) half way to the dateline at 35 kts with 26 ft seas at 40.5N 162.5E aimed east. The gale to dissipate in the evening with seas fading from 23 ft at 40.5N 170E aimed east. Something to monitor.

North CA: Swell arrival on Mon (3/25) but tiny and buried in locally generated windswell.

 

Fourth Japan Gale
Yet another gale developed off Central Japan on Wed PM (3/20) with 45-50 kt northwest winds and seas 33 ft at 35N 147E aimed east. On Thurs AM (3/21) the gale was tracking east with 45 kt west winds with seas 38 ft over a small area at 35N 155E aimed east. The gale was tracking east in the evening with 40 kts west winds and seas 35 ft at 36N 161.5E aimed east. On Fri AM (3/22) the gale was approaching the dateline with west winds 40 kts and seas 33 ft at 37N 170.25E aimed east. Fetch was fading in the evening while the gale lifted east-northeast over the dateline with west winds 35-40 kts with seas fading from 30 ft at 39.5N 177.5E aimed east. The gale moved into the Northwestern Gulf on Sat AM (3/23) with west winds 30-35 kts and seas fading from 26 ft over a solid area at 43.25N 178W aimed east. The gale faded in the evening with west winds 30-35 kts and seas fading from 26 ft at 45N 169.75W aimed east. Something to monitor.

Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Mon (3/25) building to 4.5 ft @ 16 secs (7.5 ft) mid-AM. Swell fading Tues AM (3/26) from 3.4 ft @ 14-15 secs early (4.5 ft). Residuals on Wed AM (3/27) fading from 2.5 ft @ 12 secs (3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 310 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Wed (3/27) building to 5.5 ft @ 16-17 secs early (9.0 ft). Swell fading on Thurs (3/28) from 5.6 ft @ 14 secs (8.0 ft) and being overtaken by local windswell. Swell Direction: 293-296 degrees

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

Tropical Update
No tropical systems of interest were being tracked.

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

  • Tues AM (3/26) northwest winds to be 10-15 kts for North Ca and 15 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon a new front build off North CA with light west winds 5 kts for Cape Mendocino and northwest wind 10 kts to the Golden Gate and northwest 15 kts for Central CA but up to 20 kts south of Big Sur. No precip forecast.
  • Wed AM (3/27) a front is poised to impact North CA with south winds 15-20 kts for Cape Mendocino and south winds 10 kts down to the Golden Gate and northwest winds 5-10 kts on down to Pt Conception. In the afternoon low pressure is to be off North Oregon with a front pushing south over the Golden Gate with southwest wind 15 kts for all of North CA and south winds 10+ kts for Central CA down to Big Sur and west 5-10 kts south of there. Rain developing for North CA through the day reaching Monterey Bay in the evening, Snow developing for the Sierra in the evening.
  • Thurs AM (3/28) the gale low is to hold off North Oregon with reinforcing low pressure building in behind with west winds forecast at 10-15 kts for North CA and west to northwest winds 10 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon the new low builds well off the coast with southwest winds 5-10 kts for North CA and northwest winds 10 kts for Central CA. Rain for North CA and showers for Central CA early but rain holding for Cape Mendocino through the day. Solid snow early for Tahoe then fading fast for the Sierra early.
  • Fri AM (3/29) the front arrives with south winds 15 kts for all of North and Central CA early. In the afternoon south winds to be 20-25 kts for North and Central CA and south winds 15-20 kts for Southern CA. Light rain for North CA along the coast early building inland and covering all of North and Central CA at sunset and then into Southern CA in the evening. Snow developing for Tahoe in the morning and covering all the the Sierra pretty solid in the evening.
  • Sat AM (3/30) the low holds just off Central CA with southeast winds 10-15 kts for North CA and south winds 15-20 kts for Central CA and south winds 10-15 kts for Southern CA early. More of the same in the afternoon with southeast winds 15-20 kts for North CA and south winds 15-20 kts for Central CA and south winds 15 kts for Southern CA. Rain for mainly Central CA early reaching south to Santa Barbara County early then covering the state in the afternoon and evening. Heavy snow for the Sierra all day and evening.
  • Sun AM (3/31) no real change is forecast with the low just off Central CA and southeast winds 15-20 kts for North CA early and south winds 15-20 kts for Central CA and south winds 10+ kts for Southern CA. In the afternoon the low starts moving south off Pt Conception with northeast winds 10-15 kts for North CA and south winds 10-15 kts for Central CA and southwest winds 10 kts for Southern CA. Rain limited to points south of Monterey Bay early down over all of Southern CA and building over all of Central and southern CA through the day and evening. Snow for higher elevations of the Central Sierra through the day.
  • Mon AM (4/1) northwest winds to be 10-15 kts for North CA early and south winds 10 kts for Central and Southern CA. Rain limited to Southern CA. No snow forecast.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at 63, 67, 65 and 44 inches with some 3/27 with more through 3/29-3/30.

Freeze Level for Tahoe Ski Resorts: Freeze Levels 5000 ft today rising to 6,500 ft on 3/26-27 falling to 5,000 ft through 3/30 then rising to 6,500 ft on 3/31 and up to 8,500 ft on 4/1-2. Winter to hold for now.

- - -

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for Resort specific forecasts).

 

South Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
Swell from a gale that developed under New Zealand is radiating northeast weakly (see New Zealand Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems are forecast. But swell from a weak Gale previously under New Zealand is radiating northeast (see Weak New Zealand Gale below). And small swell is possible from a gale that formed on the eastern edge of the CA swell window (see Southeast Pacific Gale below).

 

Weak New Zealand Gale
A gale developed under New Zealand while falling southeast on Wed PM (3/20) producing west winds at 40 kts with seas building to 32 ft at 60.75S 172.75E. On Thurs AM (3/21) west winds were 35 kts aimed east with seas 28 ft at 62.75S 178.25W aimed east. Fetch fading while falling southeast in the evening with southwest winds 35 kts and seas 26 ft at 63.25S 157.5W aimed east. Fetch dissipating from there. No swell expected to result for Hawaii.

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Sat (3/30) building to 0.8 ft @ 18-19 secs late (1.0-1.5 ft). Swell building through the day Sun (3/31) reaching 1.1 ft @ 16-17 secs later (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell peaking on Mon (4/1) at 1.3 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.0 ft). Swell fading on Tues (4/2) from 1.2 ft @ 14-15 secs (1.5 ft). Residuals on Wed (4/3) fading from 1.2 ft @ 13-14 secs early (1.5 ft). Swell Direction: 199 degrees

 

Southeast Pacific Gale
On Fri AM (3/22) a gale developed in the upper reaches of the far Southeast Pacific producing south winds at 35 kts and seas building near 40S 122W aimed north. in the evening south winds were 45+ kts aimed north with seas 30 ft at 39.25S 133.75W. on Sat AM (3/23) south fetch was fading from 35 kts with seas fading from 25 ft at 36S 113W aimed northeast. Small sideband swell possible for Southern CA with most energy focused on Peru and Central America.

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Sat (3/30) building to 1.4 ft @ 15 secs later (2.0 ft). Swell peaking Sun AM (3/31) at 1.6 ft @ 14 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell fading Mon (4/1) from 1.5 ft @ 12-13 secs early (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 175-180 degrees

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast as the MJO is to have moved into the Atlantic.

 

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no meaningful swell producing weather systems are forecast.

 

 

MJO/ENSO Forecast

 

La Nina Arrives -
Active MJO Builds Too
NINO3.4 SST Anomalies Starting to Fade
9 Kelvin Waves traversed the Pacific from Dec '22 through Dec 2023 erupting off Ecuador setting up El Nino for the Winter of 23-24. But now cold water has traversed the subsurface equatorial Pacific and is starting to erupt off the coast of Ecuador with the remaining warm pool created by El Nino starting to dissipate in the East Equatorial Pacific. Regardless, the atmosphere is still in El Nino mode and will continue from previous momentum while slowly fading through Fall of 2024.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023.

LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Winter 2023 = 7.7 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)

Rationale: A 3 year La Nina started fading in Jan 2023 and was gone by April. 6 Active MJO's produced 6 Kelvin Waves over early to mid 2023 with Kelvin Wave #7 in August building over the West Pacific and the 4th, 5th and 6th backed up off Ecuador now (10/20/23). The CFS model is predicting steady west anomalies from here forward and the leading edge of the low pressure bias moving over California now filling the Pacific. We are now under an El Nino status. We are moving into a period of enhanced storm production (starting late Sept 2023) and beyond, getting intense come late Fall and early Winter. This should result in an above normal level of swells, with swells being longer than normal duration from here forward as El Nino gets a stronger footprint on the atmosphere. The net result is a well above normal number of swells with above normal size and duration (i.e 15 significant class swells perhaps). Last year there were 0 and year before 5 or less.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (3/24) 5 day average winds were strong east over the East equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were modest east over East equatorial Pacific and neutral to light west over the Central Pacific and neutral over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (3/25) East anomalies were at near strong status filling the KWGA today with weak west anomalies south of California over the East Equatorial Pacific. The forecast indicates moderate east anomalies filling the KWGA through 4/2 with weak west anomalies taking over after that filling the KWGA through the end of the model run on 4/10.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:  
OLR Models: (3/24) A weak Active MJO (cloudy sky's) was over the dateline with a solid Inactive Phase building into the KWGA today. The statistic model indicates the Inactive MJO is to track east filling the KWGA on day 5 of the model run building to strong status filling the KWGA on day 10 of the model run holding on day 15 of the model run. The dynamic model depicts the same thing initially but with the Inactive Phase all but gone on day 10and neutral on day 15.
Phase Diagrams - 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (3/25) The statistical model depicts the Active signal was modest over Africa today. The forecast indicates it is to move to the East Indian Ocean over the next 15 days at between weak to moderate status. The dynamic model indicates the same thing but at weak status.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (3/25) A moderate Inactive MJO pattern (dry air) was over the KWGA today. The Inactive MJO is to track east through the KWGA through 4/9 at moderate to strong status. A modest Active MJO (wet air) is to follow moving over the KWGA on 4/19 tracking east while building some through the end of the model run on 5/4 filling the KWGA.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (3/24)
Today a moderate Active MJO signal was fading over the KWGA with west anomalies limited to the dateline with east anomalies building over the KWGA. A modest Inactive Phase and east anomalies are to build through 4/5 filling the KWGA then weakening but with steady east anomalies filling the KWGA through the end of the model run on 4/19.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (3/17) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
As of 4/17 this model quit updating. I've written the site owner and he is looking into it. The low pass filter indicates a broad low pressure bias is established over the KWGA centered at 165W with a third contour line fading on 3/17 and a second contour line fading on 4/25. The final contour is to hold through the end of the model run. It appears a strong El Nino is to slowly fade over the next 3 months while dissipating.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (3/25) Today in the far West Pacific the 30 deg isotherm is gone. The 29 degree isotherm was easing west wavering near 177W. The 28 deg isotherm line was retrograding east from 135W and was mostly just warm anomalies from off Ecuador being pushed west by trade winds. The 24 degree isotherm extended the whole way across the Pacific and was shallow but stable in the east at 20m deep. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies were losing coverage and now only +1 deg while getting compressed to the surface fast under the East Pacific at 25m deep from Ecuador west then 75m deep out to 160W. El Nino is gone subsurface. Cold water at -2 was filling the entire Equatorial Pacific below 150m in the west rising to 20m in the east with a core to -4 degs just east of the dateline down 150m. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 3/19 indicates cold water in control from Ecuador west to 125W. The remnant warm surface water from El Nino getting pushed west by trades starting at 120W and points west of there. Cold water was filling the entire equatorial Pacific thermocline below it. La Nina is developing. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (3/19) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were negative at -5 cms over the entire area and -10 cms from the Galapagos to 140W and building in density. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (3/19) cold water was filling the Equatorial Pacific and -0.5 to -1.5 degs east of 140W. El Nino is gone from the subsurface perspective and now clearly turning to La Nina.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (3/24) The latest images depict a moderate warm stream from Ecuador uniformly covering the area on the equator west to 160W but steadily losing density with 2 cool pockets interspersed between Ecuador and 100W. There is still an El Nino signal present but now the beginnings of a cold La Nina signal are starting to emerge from the depths up to the oceans surface.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (3/24): A solid cooling pocket was off Ecuador with another west of the Galapagos but weakening fast. Warming was on the equator from 110W out to the dateline and fading some. A warming trend that has been well entrenched over the East Pacific since Nov 1 2022 is all but gone.
Hi-res Overview: (3/24) Warmer than normal waters are filling the Equatorial Pacific from Ecuador to the dateline but neutral if not cooler pockets were starting to emerge from Ecuador to 120W. The classic El Nino tongue of warm water is still present but slowly losing it's density on the equator west to the dateline. Everything still looks like El Nino but the beginnings of La Nina are developing at the surface.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (3/25) (The official OISST temp record runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were falling at -0.184 and have been below 0 since 3/19. Temps previously were up at +1.024 degs on 3/12 and that was fading from +1.161 after peaking at +1.197 on 2/13 as the last of warm subsurface water got squeezed upwards. Temps were up from +0.502 on 2/4 and had been toggling in the +0.6 degs range since 12/30, previously up into the +2.0 range in early Nov. .
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps:
(3/25) (OISST runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were fading some at +1.062 today from +1.171 3/23 after dipping some the previous 5 days. Temps had been at +1.2 degs or higher since 1/13. Temps had been in the +1.5 range 11/19-1/12. Weekly OISST are +1.3 (week of 3/20) up from +1.1 degs (3/13), +1.4 (3/6), +1.3 (2/28), +1.5 (2/14 & 2/21) +1.7 (2/7), +1.8 (1/31). +1.7 (1/24 & 1/17) up at +1.9 (1/10 & 1/3), +2.0 (12/27, 12/20 and 12/13) after being at +1.9 (12/6), +2.0 (11/29) and +2.1 (11/22 - the highest), then +1.9 (11/15) and +1.8 degs (11/8 & 11/1). Monthly Data is +1.72 Oct, +2.02 Nov, +2.02 Dec and +1.82 Jan and +1.56 Feb. The 3 month ONI is +1.8 for the 3 month period DJF and +2.0 ft for NDJ (bare minimal Super El Nino status). All others were less than that.

Click for Full Sized Image Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose to +0.50 degs mid-May, +0.9 degs in mid-June, and +1.05 mid July reaching up to +1.30 degs early Aug, +1.6 degs in Sept holding in Oct and , +1.95 in Nov, +2.0 in Dec and +1.85 in Jan and +1.65 in Feb.
Forecast (3/24) - Temps to fall to +0.5 degs mid-April, -0.5 late May and -2.0 degs in Nov/Dec 2024. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same thing but with temps falling to only -1.55 degs. According to this version of the model we are past the peak of a strong El Nino.
IRI Consensus Plume: The March 19, 2024 Plume (all models) depicts temps are +0.760 degs today and its the 11th month above the La Nina threshold. Temps to fall steadily from here forward down to 0.326 in April (that's a 3 months running mean) then fading from there down to -1.011 in Sept and holding there. The Dynamic model suggest temps falling to -1.097 in Sept and the Statistic down to -1.021 in Oct.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (3/25) the Daily Index was positive at 1.82 today. The daily SOI turned mostly positive on 2/20 after a 28 day negative peaking down at -46.54 on 2/9. It was positive and up to +31.61 on 1/6 and had been rising the previous 10 days. It had been effectively neutral 11/20/23 through 1/10/24. This was not consistent with El Nino. Previously it was negative for 29 days (7/14-8/11) with a peak down to -37.30 on 7/25 and negative previously to 7/12 with peaks down to -29.32 on 5/31, -64.63 on 5/24 and -31.31 on 5/12.
The 30 day average was rising at +2.69, Recent max lows were -19.26 on 2/20, -10.43 on 11/16 and -15.70 on 9/23.
The 90 day average was rising some at -2.97. Recent max lows were -11.14 on 11/17, -11.85 on 10/15.
El Nino is collapsing

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan '98-Feb 2014) turning weakly positive March 2014 holding into June 2017 (up to +1.86 driven by the 2015-16 El Nino) then turned neutral. It went negative again 10/19 and hard negative in 10/21-10/23 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/23-2/24 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 


Powerlines Jeff Clark Inside Mavericks

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

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