Pacific Storm & Surf Forecast (Stormsurf)

Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt): Seas were 3.6 ft @ 12.5 secs with swell 2.5 ft @ 12.5 secs from 304 degrees. Water temp 77.2 (Barbers Pt), 77.0 (Pearl Harbor 233), NA (Lani 239).
Buoy 187 (Pauwela): Seas were 6.6 ft @ 13.3 secs with swell 3.8 ft @ 13.1 secs from 331 degrees. Water temp 77.2 degs
Buoy 106 (Waimea)/Buoy 202 (Hanalei): Seas were 6.8 ft @ 12.5 secs with swell 5.1 ft @ 12.8 secs from 327 degrees. Water temp 76.6 degs
Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 4.5 ft @ 12.8 secs with swell 3.4 ft @ 10.5 secs from 275 degrees. Wind southeast at 2-6 kts. Water temperature 61.9 degs, 60.8 (Harvest 071), 61.3 (Topanga 103), 61.2 (Long Beach 215), 62.1 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 61.3 (Del Mar 153), 62.4 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 3.8 ft @ 16.9 secs from 295 degrees. At E. Santa Barbara (46053) swell was 4.3 ft @ 10.2 secs from 266 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 3.1 ft @ 10.2 secs from 265 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 2.6 ft @ 12.2 secs from 255 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 5.0 ft @ 12.3 secs from 273 degrees. Water temperature was 61.9 degrees (Imperial Beach).
Buoy 029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 7.6 ft @ 16.7 secs with swell 4.0 ft @ 16.0 secs from 293 degrees. Wind southeast at 14-18 kts (46026) and south at 15-17 (1801589). Water temp NA (Bodega Bay 46013), 58.3 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 57.6 (San Francisco 46026), NA (SF Bar 142), 58.8 (1801589) and 58.6 (Monterey Bay 46042).

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Tuesday (1/2) in North and Central CA waves were 2-3 ft overhead and clean with decent form but soft and mushed. Protected breaks were 1 ft overhead on the sets and super lined up and closed out and clean. At Santa Cruz surf was chest to maybe head high and lined up but a bit warbled from southeast wind. In Southern California/Ventura waves were waist to chest high and lined up with decent form though a bit soft and super clean. Central Orange County had sets at chest high and lined up but real warbled and sloppy from brisk southeast wind. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had waves at waist to chest high and lined up with decent form and real clean but very soft. North San Diego had waves at chest to head high on the sets and lined up with good form and reasonably clean but soft. Oahu's North Shore had waves at head high to maybe 1 ft overhead and uneven and mushed but lined up. The South Shore was thigh to occasionally waist high and clean but soft. The East Shore was getting wrap around northwest swell with waves to head high 2-3 ft overhead and chopped from moderate trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Tuesday (1/2) Hawaii and california were getting fading swell from a gale that developed moving from the North Dateline region to the Northwestern Gulf Thurs-Fri (12/29) with 33 ft seas aimed southeast. A small gale developed over the Western Gulf tracking east Sun-Tues (1/3) with 26-28 ft seas targeting mainly California. That swell is tracking east towards the US West Coast. A secondary gale from it was tracking east through the Gulf Tues-Wed (1/3) with 21-23 ft seas aimed east. A far stronger storm developed on the dateline Mon (1/1) and is forecast to build Tues-Wed (1/3) while tracking through the Northwestern Gulf seas building to 50 ft aimed east. Long period swell to result. Another gale is forecast for the North Dateline region Sat-Sun (1/7) producing 39 ft seas aimed east. And yet a third though weaker system is forecast for the Dateline Tues (1/9) producing 29-31 ft seas aimed east.

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

Overview
Jetstream
On Tuesday (1/2) the jet was somewhat split pushing east over a broad area from Japan to the dateline centered on the 35N latitude line then consolidated on the dateline with winds to 150 kts forming a trough supportive of gale formation. East of there the jet was mostly consolidated ridging northeast some over the Gulf then falling hard south with winds 130 kts forming another trough off Oregon also supportive of gale formation. Over the next 72 hours the trough off Oregon is to fall south and move over California early Wed (1/3) likely producing weather there. Meanwhile the trough over the dateline is to push east continuing good support for gale formation into Thurs (1/4) eventually positioned over the Northern Gulf. At that time winds are to be building streaming off South Japan at 170 kts in pockets aligned on the 35N latitude line reaching the dateline and starting to form a new trough there on Fri (1/5). Beyond 72 hours starting Sat (1/6) the jet is to be fully consolidated in the west aligned on the 30N latitude line with winds to 170 kts forming a trough over the dateline offering support for gale development but heavily split east of there. A backdoor trough is to be pushing down the US West Coast Sat-Sun (1/7) providing weather along the coast while the trough over the dateline pushes east into the Northwestern Gulf on Sun (1/7) fading there. The same basic pattern is to hold into Tues (1/9) with another trough developing west of the dateline offering support for gale development. And another backdoor trough is looking to be developing there over Vancouver Island falling south. A moderately active pattern is to continue.

Surface Analysis
On Tuesday (1/2) small swell was fading in California and Hawaii from a a gale that previously tracked from off Kamchatka to the Dateline (see North Dateline Gale below). And swell was radiating southeast from a gale previously over the Gulf (see Gulf Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours starting Mon AM (1/1) Possible Storm #7 was developing on the dateline with 40-45 kt west winds and seas 24 ft at 38N 170E aimed east. In the evening the storm was lifting east-northeast towards the Northwestern Gulf with 45-50 kt west winds and seas 31 ft at 39N 177.75E aimed east. On Tues AM (1/2) the storm was over the Northwestern Gulf with 55 kt northwest winds and additional west fetch building at 40-45 kts over a broad area aimed east with seas up to 35 ft at 45.5N 172W aimed east. Fetch holding from the west in the evening at 55-60 kts and seas 48 ft at 48.75N 166.25W aimed east. On Wed AM (1/3) west winds to be 50 kts filling the Northwestern Gulf with seas 47-50 ft at 50.5N 162.25W aimed east. The gale is to be fading in the evening with west winds 35-45 kts stationary over the Northwestern Gulf with seas fading from 38 ft at 50.75N 159.75W aimed east. Fetch fading Thurs AM (1/4) from 40 kts with seas 33 ft at 50.75N 161.75W aimed east. Even in the evening 35 kt east fetch is to persist with seas fading from 28-33 ft at 49.75N 149W with 20+ ft seas filling the Northern Gulf. Possible large and long period north angled swell to result for primarily the Canadian and US West Coasts.

Oahu: Possible swell arrival on Thurs (1/4) building to 5.2 ft @ 15 secs late (7.5 ft). Swell holding Fri (1/5) at 5.9 ft @ 14 secs (8.0 ft). Swell fading Sat (1/6) from 4.9 ft @ 13-14 secs early (6.5 ft). Swell Direction: 322 degrees moving to 330 degrees

North CA: Rough data suggests swell arrival on Fri (1/5) building to 9.5 ft @ 18 secs (17 ft). Swell Direction spread from 297-304 degrees and then 307 degrees and shadowed in the SF Bay Area.

North Dateline Gale
Another gale started developing just west of the North Dateline region Wed AM (12/27) with 45 kts northwest winds and seas building. In the evening the gale tracked east with 45 kt west winds and seas 33 ft over a small area at 48N 169E aimed east. On Thurs AM (12/28) 40-45 kt northwest winds were approaching the dateline over a broad area with seas 33 ft at 45N 172E aimed southeast. In the evening the system moved over the dateline with 40 kt northwest winds and seas 33 ft at 45N 178E aimed southeast. On Fri AM (12/29) the gale was fading in the Northwestern Gulf with 30-35 kts northwest winds still over a solid sized area and seas 29 ft at 44.5N 174W aimed southeast. Fetch faded in the evening from 30 kts with seas fading from 25 ft at 43.5N 171W aimed east. The gale dissipated from there.

Oahu: Residuals on Tues (1/2) fading from 4.7 ft @ 12-13 secs (5.5 ft). Swell Direction: 320 degrees

North CA: Swell is to be fading Tues (1/2) building to 3.5 ft @ 15-16 secs early (5.0 ft) buried in local warble. Swell Direction: 295 degrees

Gulf Gale
Another gale started developing on the dateline Sat AM (12/30) with 45 kt west winds over a tiny area and seas building. In the evening the gale was lifting northeast over the Western Gulf with 40-45 kt west winds and seas 23 ft at 36.5N 165W aimed east. On Sun (12/31) the storm was racing northeast with 40-45 kt west winds and seas 29 ft over a tiny area at 39.75N 156.75W aimed east. Fetch was lifting north in the evening at 45 kts with seas 26-28 ft at 45N 153W aimed east with secondary fetch developing just west of it over the Western Gulf at 35 kts from the northwest and seas building from 23 ft at 41N 168W aimed east. On Mon AM (1/1) west winds were 40 kts over a small area 1200 nmiles north of Hawaii aimed east with seas 26 ft at 42N 157W aimed east. In the evening fetch fell southeast at 30-35 kts with seas 23 ft at 40N 148W aimed southeast. On Tues AM (12/2) fetch was holding at 35 kts just off North CA with seas 21 ft at 37N 138W aimed east. In the evening fetch is to be 35 kts just off San Francisco with seas 23 ft at 38N 132W aimed southeast. On Wed AM (1/3) the gale is to be moving onshore over San Francisco with 25 kt northwest winds and seas 20 ft impacting the coast.

Oahu: Swell arrival projected overnight Tues (1/2). Swell fading Wed AM (1/3) from 4.6 ft @ 13 secs (6.0 ft). Dribbles on Thurs (1/4) fading from 2.8 ft @ 12 secs (3.0 ft) and being overtaken by new possible swell. Swell Direction: 330 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Wed (1/3) building mid-day to 11.2 ft @ 13-14 secs (14.5 ft). Swell fading Thurs AM (1/4) from 8.9 ft @ 13 secs (11.5 ft). Residuals on Fri (1/5) fading from 5.6 ft @ 12-13 secs (7.0 ft). Swell Direction: 270 moving to 295 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Wed AM (1/3) building through the day to 4.4 ft @ 14 secs later (6.0 ft). Swell fading Thurs AM (1/4) from 4.3 ft @ 13-14 secs (5.5 ft). Residuals on Fri (1/5) fading from 3.0 ft @ 12-13 secs (3.5 ft). Swell Direction: 293-305 degrees

Wed AM (1/3) a front moves over the coast with northwest winds 20 kts for all of North and Central CA early. In the afternoon high pressure takes control with northwest winds 10-15 kts for Cape Mendocino and 20 kts from Pt Arena southward and 25 kts from Big Sur southward and northwest winds 25 kts for all of Southern CA. Rain for all of North and Central CA and into Southern CA early sweeping south and starting to clear later all locations. Snow for the Sierra mainly early clearing late afternoon.
Thurs AM (1/4) more of the same forecast with south winds 10 kts for Cape Mendocino but northwest winds 20 kts from Bodega Bay southward and 25 kts from Big Sur southward and 20 kts for Southern CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds fade at 10-15 kts for North CA and 20 kts from Monterey Bay southward and light winds for Southern CA. No precip forecast.
Fri AM (1/5) high pressure continues with northwest winds 20 kts for Cape Mendocino but 10+ kts for the rest of North and Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds and high pressure rebuild at 20+ kts for North and Central CA. No meaningful precip forecast.
Sat AM (1/6) the next low approaches from the north with northwest winds 15 kts for all of North and Central CA early. In the afternoon the front pushes south with northwest winds 20+ kts for all of North CA and northwest winds 15 kts for Central CA. Heavy rain for north Ca late afternoon building south of Monterey Bay in the evening but lighter. Snow for Tahoe in the evening.
Sun AM (1/7) northwest winds take over a 20+ kts for all of North and Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 10 kts for Cape Mendocino and northwest winds 25 kts for Bodega Bay to Pt Conception and 30 kts for all of Southern CA. Light scattered showers all locations through the day. Light snow for the Southern Sierra early.
Mon AM (1/8) northwest winds are forecast at 10-15 kts for North CA and 15+ kts for Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 10 kts for North CA and 10 kts for Central CA. Light rain for the coast of North CA mainly early.
Tues AM (1/9) finally a break with northwest winds forecast a 5-10 kts for North CA and 10 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon the next front approaches from the north with northwest winds 10 kts for Cape Mendocino but only 5-10 kts for Pt Arena south to Big Sur and northwest at 15 kts from there to Pt Conception. Rain for Cape Mendocino in the afternoon.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at 39, 42, 43, and 17 inches respectively with 14 inches on Tues (1/2) and 10 inches on Sat (1/6) and 15 inches on Wed (1/10).

Freeze Level for Tahoe Ski Resorts: Freeze Level 5,000 ft or less 1/3 up to 7,000 ft 1/4 then falling and generally 5,000 ft or less beyond. Looks like Winter is finally going to start.

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Overview
Surface Analysis
No swell of interest coming from the Southern Hemisphere was hitting Hawaii or California. Summer is over.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

Another gale is to developing over the dateline Fri AM (1/5) with 45 kt northwest winds and seas building from 26 ft at 37N 165E aimed southeast. In the evening the gale is to lift northeast over the dateline with 45 kt northwest winds and seas building from 28 ft at 41.25N 175E. On Sat AM (1/6) the gale is to build to storm status over the North Dateline region with 45-50 kt west winds and seas 30 ft at 45.75N 176.5W aimed east. The storm is to start lifting north over the Eastern Aleutians in the evening with 50 kt west winds still south of the Aleutians and seas 39 ft at 50N 170.75W aimed east. on Sun AM (1/7) fetch is to move into the Bering Sea with seas fading from 36 ft at 53.5N 165W aimed east. Something to monitor.

And on Mon PM (1/8) another gale is forecast develop west of the dateline with 45 kt northwest winds and seas 32 ft at 38.25N 166.5e aimed southeast. On Tues AM (1/9) the gale is to be over the dateline with 40-45 kts northwest winds and seas 30 ft at 40N 173.75E aimed southeast. Something to monitor.

El Nino Peaking
NINO3.4 SST Anomalies Reflect a Strong El Nino
1 Kelvin Wave traversed the Pacific in Dec '22 with a 2nd in Jan-Feb and a 3rd and 4th in March-April, a 5th in May and a 6th in August. But after the last Active MJO in mid-to-late May (resulting in Kevin Wave #5), the MJO stalled. Finally the Active Phase restarted in later July Producing Kelvin Wave #6 which is erupting off Ecuador now. Another Active Phase of the MJO and 3 associated Westerly Wind Bursts developed early Oct thru later Nov producing Kelvin Waves #7 and #8 which are erupting off Ecuador now. And westerly anomalies in Dec have now produced Kelvin Wave #9,. All these Active MJO/Kevin Wave pairs are backfilling warm water off Ecuador and helping push the atmosphere deeper into El Nino. And El Nino is finally evident in the atmosphere as evidenced by the jetstream, OLR. ocean current, and wind anomalies.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023.

Rationale: A 3 year La Nina started fading in Jan 2023 and was gone by April. 6 Active MJO's produced 6 Kelvin Waves over early to mid 2023 with Kelvin Wave #7 in August building over the West Pacific and the 4th, 5th and 6th backed up off Ecuador now (10/20/23). The CFS model is predicting steady west anomalies from here forward and the leading edge of the low pressure bias moving over California now filling the Pacific. We are now under an El Nino status. We are moving into a period of enhanced storm production (starting late Sept 2023) and beyond, getting intense come late Fall and early Winter. This should result in an above normal level of swells, with swells being longer than normal duration from here forward as El Nino gets a stronger footprint on the atmosphere. The net result is a well above normal number of swells with above normal size and duration (i.e 15 significant class swells perhaps). Last year there were 0 and year before 5 or less.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (1/2) 5 day average winds were moderate from the east over the East equatorial Pacific and moderate east over the Central Pacific and moderate east over the KWGA. Anomalies were light west over the East equatorial Pacific and light west over the Central Pacific and neutral over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (1/2) East anomalies were strong over the KWGA while moderate west anomalies were over the East Equatorial Pacific. The forecast indicates east anomalies filling the KWGA through the end of the model run on 1/18 but weakening on the date over 90% of the KWGA moving over the East Pacific. Certainly a massive strong Inactive MJO pulse signaling the beginnings of the end of El Nino.

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (1/1) The Inactive Phase of the MJO (dry air/cloud free skies) was centered strongly over the KWGA today. The statistic model indicates the Inactive MJO (dry air/cloud free skies) is to push east through the KWGA on days 5-15 of the model run but with the Active Phase (wet air/cloudy skies) poised to move east into the KWGA from the Maritime Continue on day 15 of the model run. The dynamic model depicts the same thing but with the Active Phase not making it to the KWGA on day 15 of the model run.
Phase Diagrams - 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (1/2) The statistical model depicts the Active signal was moderate over the Central Indian Ocean today. The forecast indicates it is to push east at near strong status while moving over the East Indian Ocean 7 days out, then fading to weak status over the Central Maritime Continent 15 days out. The dynamic model indicates the same thing but the Active Phase still near strong status on the last day of the model run moving over the West Maritime Continent.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (1/2)A neutral MJO pattern was indicated over the KWGA today. The forecast has a modest Active Phase and wet air moving over the KWGA 1/7 building some and tracking east through the KWGA through the last day of the model run on 2/11.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (1/1) Today the Inactive Phase of the MJO was filling the KWGA with east anomalies in control. The Active Phase and west anomalies were fading over the East Pacific. The forecast indicates the Active Phase is to fade out in the next 2 days over the East Pacific while the Inactive Phase and east anomalies are traverse the KWGA through 1/8. After that a pattern of weak east anomalies forecast to hold over the KWGA with west anomalies near the dateline through the end of the model run on 1/29. Certainly no support for El Nino is indicated. The beginning of the end of El Nino is developing.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (1/2) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today the Active Phase of the MJO was all but gone over the KWGA with west anomalies fading fast. The Inactive Phase is over the West KWGA with east anomalies filling most of the KWGA. The Inactive Phase is to traverse the KWGA through 1/18 with east anomalies weakening steadily. A modest Active Phase is to follow 1/13-3/3 with weak west anomalies filling the KWGA. A weak Inactive Phase is forecast 2/18 through the end of the model run (4/1) with modest east anomalies over the KWGA,. The low pass filter indicates a broad low pressure bias is established over the KWGA centered at 170W with a 4th contour line (started 11/4) holding till 1/10. The third contour line is to fade on 3/6 with the second contour line fading sometime just past the last day of the model run. The high pressure bias started to build over the Maritime Continent on 10/2 and is to fade on 1/23. It appears a strong El Nino is finally starting to develop in a classical sense and is to move east over the next 3 months while dissipating. Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) suggests cloud activity took over the KWGA weakly on 6/24 and started building in earnest then more solid starting Sept 15, It started building strongly on 10/16 and is continuing to build, strongly starting on 11/1 and is build through today. It is forecast holding at strong status near 170W to 3/3 then dissipating. Conversely clear skies started building over the Maritime Continent in mid-May and have continued solidifying today and are forecast building into Jan 15, then fading while holding rough at 120E.

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (1/2) Today in the far West Pacific the leading edge of the 30 deg isotherm was steady at 165W. The 29 degree isotherm was steady at 158W. The 28 deg isotherm line was backtracking from 124W to 132W today. The 24 degree isotherm extended the whole way across the Pacific and steady at 47m deep (25m earlier but at one point down to 65m). Anomaly wise, warm anomalies at +2 deg C start in the far West Pacific at 175E and +3 deg anomalies redeveloping starting at 177W and building in coverage. It appears new Kelvin Wave #9 is developing under the dateline. +4 degs anomalies associated with Kelvin Wave #7/#8 start at +142W (previously 145W) pushing east in a continuous stream into Ecuador. The warm pool in the east is discharging to the surface while being backfilled by a little more warm water (Kelvin Wave #9) but no longer growing in coverage. There's about 1.5-2.0 months of warm water backed up off the Ecuadorian Coast. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 12/29 indicates +1-2 degs anomalies starting at 175E and over a large section of the subsurface equatorial Pacific (Kelvin Wave #9) and building while tracking east with 3 deg anomalies from Kevin Wave #7/#8 at 125W and east of there erupting into Ecuador. A thin stream of +0.5 degree anomalies were falling off the Maritime Continent merging with the preexisting warm stream but cool water was building deep in the far West Pacific down 150m reaching east to 145W. No cool anomalies were indicated above 150m for the moment. El Nino is peaking. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (12/29) Sea heights were positive across the equatorial Pacific starting at 180W at +0-5 cms extending east into Ecuador. +5 cm anomalies covered the area starting at 160W to the Ecuadorian Coast (Kelvin Wave #7, #8 and #9) with +10 cm anomalies between 135W to 110W. No cool water was at depth but it appears the warm pool is starting to discharge to the east. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (12/29) warm water is moving east at +0.5 degs from 166W (building west) to Ecuador with a broad pocket of +1.0-1.5 deg anomalies between 145W to Ecuador and moving east. The mature Phase of El Nino is peaking with cooler water developing over the West Pacific and warm water building in the east and pushing east with the final Kelvin Wave (#9) in flight. The demise of the warm pool in the west signals an eventual turn to La Nina (sometime next year).

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (1/1) The latest images depict a strong warm stream from Ecuador uniformly covering the area on the equator west to the dateline. Temps are building some from 90W to 145W. Pockets of stronger warming were again showing between the Galapagos and 130W. Heat also extends north up to Southern Baja and south down into North Chile. There is a very clear El Nino signal with the classic El Nino triangle in-place and building towards a strong status.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (1/1): A generalized warming trend is on the equator between the Galapagos out to 160W. Warming is also occurring along Chile, Peru,and Ecuador and strongly. In general a warming trend has been well entrenched over the East Pacific since Nov 1 2022.
Hi-res Overview: (1/1) Warmer than normal waters are filling the Equatorial Pacific from Ecuador to the dateline and strongest from 90W to 135W. The classic El Nino tongue of warm water is steady but not building over the equator west to the dateline. Everything is now looking like El Nino.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (1/2) (The official OISST temp record runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps are rising at +0.605 after falling hard down to +0.224 (12/26) after being steady at +0.814 12/6-12/18. Before that they were building to +1.715 (11/27) and down at +1.0630 (11/20) after being at +1.657 (11/13) and up to +2.001 (11/6-11/10) then generally steady in the +1.9 degs range 9/28-11/9. Previous temps were down at +1.755 (10/22), down to +1.527 (10/6), up to +2.10 (9/17) and have been falling since 8/31 when they were up to +3.073 after rising to +3.164 (8/18) after being up to +2.925 on 8/10 after rising at +3.074 degs (8/7) after being up to +3.391 (on 7/20) and had been rising from +2.906 (starting 7/3) rising from +2.451 after peaking at +2.7926 on 6/13 and have been up in the +2.0 to +3.0 degs range since 4/1 having previously peaked at +2.891 (4/13). Previously temps reached +2.302 degrees on 4/6, +1.732 degs (3/22), up from +0.462 since 2/28. Temps had reached as high as +1.076 on 2/19 and were previously steady at +0.848 since 2/7. Previously they started steadily rising 11/13 when they were around -1.5 degs C.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (1/2) (OISST runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were rising slowly to +1.695. We are likely at peak temps now. Temps were in the +1.5 range since 11/19. They were down to +1.236 (11/16) after being up to +1.449 on 11/2 and +1.300 on 10/20 after falling down to +1.149 (10/11). Weekly OISST are again at +2.0 (12/27, 12/20 and 12/13) after being at +1.9 (12/6), +2.0 degs (11/29) and +2.1 (week of 11/22 - the highest so far), then +1.9 the week before and +1.8 degs (previous 2 weeks). Anomalies were +1.6 the previous 2 weeks (10/18 & 1025), +1.5 the 3 weeks previous (through 10/11) after being up to +1.7 degs the week before and +1.6 degs 3 weeks in a row prior (starting 8/30) putting us in minimal strong El Nino status. Temps first time above +1.0 degs was on 8/7 after being up to +0.967 (8/1) up from +0.873 degs (7/25) after peaking at +0.985 (7/18). Previously temps were rising slightly at +0.882 (7/9) after being steady at +0.794 4-5 days and that after being steady at +0.895 (3 days near 6/25) after being in the +0.712 range the previous 9 days after previously rising to +0.975 on 6/9. We are now 31 days into a trend of being above the El Nino threshold (for the 2nd time). Temps reached the El Nino threshold for the first time on 5/17 at +0.507 then quickly fell over the next 10 days down to +0.378 (5/26). Previous peaks of +0.318 on 4/30 besting the previous peak at +0.199 on 4/21. Temps have been steadily increasing hitting 0.0 on 4/12 and were then more or less steady the previous 4 weeks. Temps previously rose to -0.402 on 2/23. Temps rose above the La Nina threshold (-0.5 degs) on 2/22 and had been rising slowly since 2/12 when they were about -1.0 degs C. They had been in the -1.0 deg range since at least Nov 2022.

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps started slowly rising to -0.75 degs in Jan 2023 and up to -0.5 degs (above the La Nina threshold) on 2/12. Temps rose to +0.50 degs mid-May and were at +0.9 degs in mid-June, and +1.05 mid July reaching up to +1.30 degs early Au, +1.6 degs in Sept holding in Oct and , +1.95 in Nov and Dec.
Forecast (1/1) - Temps to are to hold at +1.95 degs though mid Dec. But this is nonsense. Temps are higher now than at any time in the past. Temps are to be falling to +1.7 mid- Jan and solidly in strong El Nino territory before starting a steady fade thereafter down to -1.0 degs in Sept 2024. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same thing. According to this version of the model we are at the peak of our strong El Nino.
IRI Consensus Plume: The December 20, 2023 Plume (all models) depicts temps are +1.67 degs today and it's the 8th month above the La Nina threshold. Temps to rise steadily from here forward up to +1.838 degrees in December (that's a 3 months running mean) then fading from there. The dynamic model suggest temps peaking at +1.900 in Dec/Jan/Feb before falling while the statistic models show +1.838 Dec/Jan/Feb before falling. This is higher than the previous months projections. The dynamic models are running a bit hotter than the statistic models and are likely more accurate. The CFS model is on the low end of the dynamic model range with 7 of 17 models above +2.0 degrees.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (1/2) the Daily Index was neutral at +0.10 and has been neutral 8 days after hard negative 6 days. It was neutral the previous 8 days (12/12-12/19). Otherwise was negative since 12/3. It had been mostly positive the previous 8 days (starting 11/25) but was negative 5 days previous, neutral for 2 days then negative the previous 12 days, Previously they were toggling between weakly positive and negative for 12 days (starting 10/24), but were solidly negative for 65 days prior (starting 9/16). It was positive the previous 7 days, then negative the previous 29 days (7/14-8/11) with a peak down to -37.30 on 7/25.The SOI has effectively been negative since 7/12. It was positive the previous 21 days then was negative 11 days prior and positive 5 days previous then negative for 27 days previous ending 6/6 with a peak down to -29.32 on 5/31, -64.63 on 5/24 and -31.31 on 5/12. Previously readings were toggling between +10 and -10 for 13 days, but negative the 15 days previous to that, positive the 6 days prior to that after being mostly negative 25 days before that. It fell to -19.40 on 4/2. -17.44 on 2/22, the beginning of a change from which no return seemed likely. It was up to +21.85 on 2/10 and +55.74 on 12/22 and were in the +20 range the previous 22 days.
The 30 day average was falling at -4.59 after being down to -10.43 on 11/16 and up to -5.75 on 11/5 and previously down to -15.70 on 9/23. It fell below the neutral point on 7/26. It rose above positive 7/3-7/25. It previously fell to -19.64 on 6/5 had been falling to -4.13 on 4/4 (lagging indicator driven by the Active Phase of the MJO) after falling to -0.52 on 3/22 previously falling to +4.18 on 11/27 and peaking at +21.57 (10/16) after supposedly peaking at +19.66 on 9/28. It was down to +6.89 on 7/29. It peaked at +20.34 (5/12) the highest in a year and beating last years high of +19.51 (1/14).
The 90 day average was rising at -6.29 after being up to -6.04 on 12/21 and turned negative the first time in years on 5/12. Recent max lows were -11.14 on 11/17, -11.85 on 10/15, -8.90 on 8/8 and -7.57 on 6/6. It previously peaked at +14.63 on 2/20, +15.61 on 10/25 and +12.92 on 8/11 and that after peaking at +18.40 (7/2) beating it's previous peak of +16.86 (5/31), the highest in a year. It previously peaked at +9.80 (9/21) after falling to it's lowest point in a year at +1.06 (6/9). The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 (2/23/21 - clearly indicative of La Nina then). This index is a lagging indicator but suggests that the Active Phase occurring now is starting to drive the index down, hopefully with no upward trend in sight for at least a year.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative ever since, driven by recent La Nina conditions. In May-July 2021 it was the most negative its been in the -1.80 to -2.04 range since Sept 2012 (-2.99) and then fell to -3.16 in Oct 2021 (the lowest since July 1933) then settled at -2.72 in Nov and Dec 2021. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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