Pacific Storm & Surf Forecast (Stormsurf)

Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt): Seas were 3.6 ft @ 14.3 secs with swell 2.3 ft @ 14.5 secs from 311 degrees. Water temp 77.0 (Barbers Pt), 76.6 (Pearl Harbor 233), NA (Lani 239).
Buoy 187 (Pauwela): Seas were 9.5 ft @ 10.5 secs with swell 4.1 ft @ 15.0 secs from 320 degrees. Water temp 77.0 degs
Buoy 106 (Waimea)/Buoy 202 (Hanalei): Seas were 5.9 ft @ 14.3 secs with swell 4.1 ft @ 14.7 secs from 339 degrees. Water temp 77.0 degs
Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 4.3 ft @ 17.2 secs with swell 2.3 ft @ 17.6 secs from 261 degrees. Wind east at 4-6 kts. Water temperature 60.6 degs, 58.6 (Harvest 071), 60.3 (Topanga 103), 59.9 (Long Beach 215), 61.3 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 60.6 (Del Mar 153), 61.7 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 12.9 ft @ 17.9 secs from 301 degrees. At E. Santa Barbara (46053) swell was 3.0 ft @ 17.5 secs from 296 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.9 ft @ 17.8 secs from 261 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.3 ft @ 18.3 secs from 245 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 4.5 ft @ 18.8 secs from 275 degrees. Water temperature was 60.6 degrees (Imperial Beach).
Buoy 029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 16.2 ft @ 16.7 secs with swell 11.9 ft @ 17.3 secs from 300 degrees. Wind northwest at 8-12 kts (46026) and north-northwest at 8-10 (1801589). Water temp NA (Bodega Bay 46013), 57.2 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 57.0 (San Francisco 46026), NA (SF Bar 142), 58.1 (1801589) and NA (Monterey Bay 46042).

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Saturday (1/6) in North and Central CA waves were 15-17 ft and lined up with lots of power but with warble and some lump intermixed and not really rideable. Protected breaks were 10 ft on the sets and super lined up and closed out but clean early. At Santa Cruz surf was 3 ft overhead on the sets and lined up and clean but a bit soft. In Southern California/Ventura waves were 1 ft over head and super lined up and clean with great form. Central Orange County had sets at 1-2 ft overhead on the peak and lined up and real clean with no wind and good form. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had waves at thigh to maybe waist high and lined up and clean but real weak. North San Diego had waves at 1-2 ft overhead and lined up and clean with decent form though a bit soft. Oahu's North Shore had waves at 2 ft overhead and lined up and clean with good form and light offshores early. The South Shore was thigh high and clean and soft. The East Shore was getting east windswell at head high and chopped from moderate southeast trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Saturday (1/6) California was getting hit by Swell #7 from a strong storm that developed on the dateline Mon (1/1) tracking through the Northwestern Gulf Tues-Wed (1/3) with seas to 48 ft aimed east. Lesser energy from it was hitting Hawaii. Another gale is forecast for the North Dateline/Western Gulf regions Sat-Sun (1/7) producing 38 ft seas briefly aimed east. And yet a third though weaker system is forecast for the Dateline Tues-Wed (1/10) producing 36-38 ft seas briefly aimed east. A local gale os also forecast off Washington on Tues (1/9) producing 30 ft seas aimed southeast. A relatively local gale is forecast developing 1200 nmiles north of Hawaii then lifting hard north Wed-Thurs (1/11) producing 36-38 ft seas aimed south and southeast at the Islands and then the mainland. Then a far stronger system is forecast for the North Dateline region Thurs-Sat (1/13) producing up to 57 ft seas aimed east. El Nino is keeping us busy.

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

Overview
Jetstream
On Saturday (1/6) the jet was consolidated pushing east from Japan to the dateline centered on the 33N latitude line with winds to 180 kts forming a trough over the North Dateline supportive of gale development then splitting with most energy in the northern branch pushing hard north up to the Eastern Aleutians then falling southeast down the Canadian and US West Coast forming a trough making mostly weather before pushing inland just north of San Francisco. Over the next 72 hours the same basic pattern is to hold with the dateline trough pushing east and into Washington on Tues (1/9) continuing to support gale formation. And another trough is to start building west of the dateline Mon (1/8) supportive of gale development tracking northeast to the Western Gulf then fading on Wed (1/10). Beyond 72 hours starting Wed (1/10) winds in the jet are to build to 190 kts on the dateline carving out yet another trough north of Hawaii falling hard south into Thurs (1/11) and getting pretty tight and pinched off but offering a window to support for gale development. By Fri (1/12) winds to build to 180 kts solid from Japan to the dateline on the 33N latitude line with a new trough building on the dateline offering great support for gale formation. The Active pattern continues.

Surface Analysis
On Saturday (1/6) swell from a solid storm in the Northwestern Gulf was fading in Hawaii and peaking in CA (see Storm #7 below).

Over the next 72 hours swell from another135 gale over the North Dateline region is to be tracking mostly east (see North Dateline Gale below).

Another small gale is forecast developing just off Vancouver Island on Mon PM (1/8) producing northwest winds at 35 kts and seas at 23 ft at 47.5N 135W aimed southeast and mostly too north for even North CA (321 degs). The gale is to build into Tues AM (1/9) with up to 45 kts northwest winds but all shadowed relative to North CA but with 35 kt northwest winds reaching south and seas to 24 ft at 44N 131W aimed southeast on the great circle path to North CA (318 degs). Small windswell possible (see QuikCASTs for swell details). .

And a local gale is forecast just 600 nmiles north of Hawaii on Mon PM (1/8) producing northeast winds at 35 kts with seas 22 ft at 31N 157W aimed southwest. More of the same is forecast Tues AM (1/9) with 35 kt northeast winds and 23 ft seas at 34N 157W aimed southwest. The gale is to lift north with no fetch remaining aimed at Hawaii. Local windswell is possible for the Islands on Tues (1/9) (see QuikCASTs for swell details).

Another gale is forecast developing starting Mon PM (1/8) west of the dateline with 45-50 kt northwest winds and seas building from 25 ft at 44N 164E aimed southeast. On Tues AM (1/9) the gale is to be tracking east pushing up to the dateline with 50 kt northwest winds and seas 39 ft at 46N 177.25E aimed east. Fetch is to be moving northeast in the evening with 40-45 kt northwest winds and seas 34 ft at 49.25N 176W aimed east. On Wed AM (1/10) the gael to lift north starting to move over the Eastern Aleutians with seas fading from 31 ft at 50.75N 170W aimed east. More north angled swell to result for Hawaii and CA. Something to monitor.

Storm #7
On Mon AM (1/1) another gale was developing on the dateline with 40-45 kt west winds and seas 24 ft at 38N 170E aimed east. In the evening the storm was lifting east-northeast towards the Northwestern Gulf with 45-50 kt west winds and seas 31 ft at 39N 177.75E aimed east. On Tues AM (1/2) the storm was over the Northwestern Gulf with 55 kt northwest winds and additional west fetch building at 40-45 kts over a broad area aimed east with seas up to 35 ft at 45.5N 172W aimed east. Fetch held from the west in the evening at 55 kts and seas 48 ft at 48.5N 166.75W aimed east. On Wed AM (1/3) west winds were 45 kts filling the Northwestern Gulf with seas 44 ft at 49.5N 163.25W aimed east. The gale was fading in the evening with west winds 40 kts stationary over the Northwestern Gulf with seas fading from 36 ft at 49.25N 163.5W aimed east. Fetch was fading Thurs AM (1/4) from 35-40 kts with seas 31 ft at 49.75N 159.5W aimed east. Even in the evening 35 kt east fetch is to persist with seas fading from 28-34 ft at 50N 146.75 with 20+ ft seas filling the Northern Gulf. Possible large and long period north angled swell to result for primarily the Canadian and US West Coasts. The gale to dissipate from there.

Oahu: Swell holding Fri (1/5) at 5.9 ft @ 14 secs (8.0 ft). Swell fading Sat (1/6) from 4.6 ft @ 13-14 secs early (6.0 ft). Swell Direction: 322 degrees moving to 330 degrees

North CA: Swell holds through early Sat (1/6) fading from 8.7 ft @ 17 secs (14.5 ft). More swell overriding it beyond. Swell Direction spread from 297-304 degrees and then 307 degrees and shadowed in the SF Bay Area.

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Sat AM (1/6) peaking at 3.4 ft @ 17+ secs early (5.5 ft) at exposed breaks. Swell continues Sun (1/7) fading from 2.8 ft @ 16 secs early (4.5 ft) and being overridden by new swell. Swell Direction: 300-307 and then 310 degrees

North Dateline Gale
Another gale started developing just west of the dateline Fri AM (1/5) with 45 kt northwest winds and seas building from 24 ft roughly at 38N 167E aimed southeast. In the evening the gale lifted northeast over the dateline with 45 kt northwest winds and seas building from 28 ft at 44N 173W. On Sat AM (1/6) the gale moved over the North Dateline region with 45 kt west winds and seas 31 ft at 48.75N 168W aimed east. The gale is to build to storm status while lifting north over the Eastern Aleutians in the evening with 50 kt west winds still just barely south of the Aleutians and seas 38 ft at 51.75N 167.75W aimed east before moving over the Aleutians at 4 PM. On Sun AM (1/7) all fetch is to move into the Bering Sea with seas fading from 34 ft at 53.25N 166W aimed east. Swell possible from a northerly angle.

Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Mon (1/8) building to 3.0 ft @ 15 secs late (4.5 ft). Swell peaking on Tues (1/9) mid-day at 5.6 ft @ 12-13 secs (7.0 ft). Swell being overridden by more local swell on Wed (1/10). Swell Direction: 325 moving to 330 degrees

North California: Expect swell arrival on Tues (1/9) building to 2.1 ft @ 16-17 secs later (3.5 ft) and buried in residual swell from Storm #7. Swell Direction:303-307 degrees

Sun AM (1/7) northwest winds take over a 15-20 kts for Cape Mendocino and 20 kts for the rest of North CA and 25 kts for Central CA early and northwest winds 25-30 kts for Southern CA. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 10-15 kts for Cape Mendocino and northwest winds 25 kts for Pt Arena south to Pt Conception and 20 kts for all of Southern CA. Light scattered showers early for North and South CA passing quickly and gone late morning and then clear by the afternoon. No snow forecast.
Mon AM (1/8) west winds are forecast at 10-15 kts for North CA and 20 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 5-10 kts for North CA and northwest 10-15 kts from Big Sur to Pt Conception. Light rain for Cape Mendocino.
Tues AM (1/9) finally a break with northwest winds forecast a 20 kts for Cape Mendocino but 5-10 kts for the rest of North CA and 5 kts for Central CA but 10-15 kts south of Big Sur. In the afternoon the next front and high pressure arrives from the north with northwest winds 20 kts for North CA and 15-20 kts for Central CA. Rain building south over North CA dissipating near Santa Cruz late afternoon. No snow forecast.
Wed AM (1/10) high pressure returns with northwest winds 20 kts for North CA early and northwest 20-25 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 15-20 kts for North CA and 20-25 kts for Central CA. Rain for Cape Mendocino early building south to Morro Bay in the evening. Light snow for the Sierra late afternoon through the evening.
Thurs AM (1/11) northwest winds continue at 15-20 kts for North and Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 15 kts for North CA and 15-20 kts for Central CA. Light rain for North CA at sunrise. Snow fading for mainly Tahoe early.
Fri AM (1/12) northwest winds to be fading at 10 kts for North and Central CA early. In the afternoon south winds are forecast at 15 kts for Cape Mendocino but only 5 kts south of there from the west and northwest 5 kts for all of Central CA. No precip forecast.
Sat AM (1/13) northwest winds to be 20-30 kts early for North CA and south 5-10 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds and high pressure take over at 20-25 kts for all of North and Central CA. Heavy rain and snow for Cape Mendocino early building south to Santa Barbara County in the afternoon. Moderate snow for the Sierra starting late morning.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at 25, 30, 25, and 5 inches respectively with some on Sat (1/6), some on Wed (1/10) 1and then rest on Sat (1/13).

Freeze Level for Tahoe Ski Resorts: Freeze Level falling and generally at 3,000 ft through 1/18, then rising to 8.000 ft on 1/8 then generally 4,500 ft beyond.

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Overview
Surface Analysis
No swell of interest coming from the Southern Hemisphere was hitting Hawaii or California. Summer is over.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

Beyond 72 hours remnants of a local gale previously north of Hawaii are to be lifting northeast and developing in the Northwestern Gulf Wed PM (1/10) producing 40 kt northwest winds and seas building from 26 ft at 44N 160W aimed southeast. On Thurs AM (1/11) northwest winds to be 45 kts with seas 32 ft at 46N 155.75W aimed southeast. Fetch to be building in the evening at 50 kts from the northwest with seas 39 ft at 49N 152.5W aimed southeast. The storm to fade Fri AM (1/12) with 35 kts west winds and seas fading from 31 ft at 52.5N 147W aimed east. Something to monitor.

And a strong storm (Possible Storm #8) is forecast developing over the North Dateline region on Thurs PM (1/11) producing northwest winds at 60 kts aimed southeast with seas building from 40 ft at 45.25N 173E aimed east. On Fri AM (1/12) 55-60 kt northwest winds to be over the dateline with seas 57 ft @ 47N 179W aimed east. In the evening northwest winds are forecast fading from 50 kts with seas 49 ft at 49N 171.5W aimed east. Fetch holding position Sat AM (1/13) at 45+ kts with seas 41 ft at 51.5N 165.75W aimed east. Fetch fading from 40 kts in the evening with seas 35 ft at 52N 162.5W aimed east. Something to monitor.

El Nino Peaking
NINO3.4 SST Anomalies Reflect a Strong El Nino
1 Kelvin Wave traversed the Pacific in Dec '22 with a 2nd in Jan-Feb and a 3rd and 4th in March-April, a 5th in May and a 6th in August. But after the last Active MJO in mid-to-late May (resulting in Kevin Wave #5), the MJO stalled. Finally the Active Phase restarted in later July Producing Kelvin Wave #6 which is erupting off Ecuador now. Another Active Phase of the MJO and 3 associated Westerly Wind Bursts developed early Oct thru later Nov producing Kelvin Waves #7 and #8 which are erupting off Ecuador now. And westerly anomalies in Dec have now produced Kelvin Wave #9,. All these Active MJO/Kevin Wave pairs are backfilling warm water off Ecuador and helping push the atmosphere deeper into El Nino. And El Nino is finally evident in the atmosphere as evidenced by the jetstream, OLR. ocean current, and wind anomalies.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023.

Rationale: A 3 year La Nina started fading in Jan 2023 and was gone by April. 6 Active MJO's produced 6 Kelvin Waves over early to mid 2023 with Kelvin Wave #7 in August building over the West Pacific and the 4th, 5th and 6th backed up off Ecuador now (10/20/23). The CFS model is predicting steady west anomalies from here forward and the leading edge of the low pressure bias moving over California now filling the Pacific. We are now under an El Nino status. We are moving into a period of enhanced storm production (starting late Sept 2023) and beyond, getting intense come late Fall and early Winter. This should result in an above normal level of swells, with swells being longer than normal duration from here forward as El Nino gets a stronger footprint on the atmosphere. The net result is a well above normal number of swells with above normal size and duration (i.e 15 significant class swells perhaps). Last year there were 0 and year before 5 or less.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (1/5) 5 day average winds were moderate from the east over the East equatorial Pacific and modest east over the Central Pacific and moderate east over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the East equatorial Pacific and weak west over the Central Pacific and neutral over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (1/6) East anomalies were moderate plus filling the KWGA. The forecast indicates east anomalies filling the KWGA through the end of the model run on 1/22 filling the KWGA while building to strong status in pockets focused over the dateline. West anomalies to hold over the East Equatorial Pacific into 1/13. Certainly a massive strong Inactive MJO pulse signaling the beginnings of the end of El Nino.

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (1/5) The Inactive Phase of the MJO (dry air/cloud free skies) was centered strongly over the KWGA today. The statistic model indicates the Inactive MJO (dry air/cloud free skies) is to push east through the KWGA on days 5-10 of the model run with the Active Phase (wet air/cloudy skies) trying to move east into the KWGA from the Maritime Continue on day 15 of the model run. The dynamic model depicts the same thing but with the Active Phase not making it to the KWGA on day 15 of the model run with the Inactive Phase holding strong.
Phase Diagrams - 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (1/6) The statistical model depicts the Active signal was moderate plus over the Central Indian Ocean today. The forecast indicates it is to push east at weak status moving up to the far West Pacific 15 days out. The dynamic model indicates the the Active Phase easing east to the Central Maritime Continent 15 days out and strong there.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (1/6) A weak Active MJO pattern (wet air) was indicated over the KWGA today. The forecast has the Active Phase (wet air) filling the KWGA tracking east through 1/16. After that the Inactive Phase (dry air) is to track through the KWGA 1/21 through 2/10. Then the Active Phase (wet air) is to move into the far West Pacific the last day of the model run on 2/15.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (1/5) Today the Inactive Phase of the MJO was filling the KWGA with east anomalies in control. The forecast indicates the Inactive Phase and east anomalies are traverse the KWGA through 1/22. West anomalies are to persist over the East Equatorial Pacific through 1/15. After that a pattern of weak west anomalies are forecast to develop starting 1/16 mostly filling the KWGA 1/24 through the end of the model run on 2/2 with a weak Active MJO developing 1/26. The beginning of the end of El Nino is developing.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (1/6) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today the Inactive Phase of the MJO was over the KWGA with east anomalies filling it. The Inactive Phase is to traverse the KWGA through 1/22 with east anomalies holding. A moderate Active Phase is to follow 1/16-3/2 with moderate to strong west anomalies filling the KWGA mainly over the dateline. A weak Inactive Phase is forecast 2/15 through the end of the model run (4/3) with modest east anomalies over the KWGA,. The low pass filter indicates a broad low pressure bias is established over the KWGA centered at 170W with a 4th contour line (started 11/4) holding till 1/10. The third contour line is to fade on 2/23 with the second contour line fading just past the end of the model run on 4/4. The high pressure bias was over the Maritime Continent on 10/2 and is to fade on 1/23. It appears a strong El Nino is in control and is to move east over the next 3 months while dissipating. Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) suggests cloud activity took over the KWGA weakly on 6/24 and started building in earnest then more solid starting Sept 15, It started building strongly on 10/16 and is continuing to build, strongly starting on 11/1 and is build through today. It is forecast holding at strong status near 170W to 3/3 then dissipating. Conversely clear skies started building over the Maritime Continent in mid-May and have continued solidifying today and are forecast building into Jan 15, then fading while holding rough at 120E.

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (1/6) Today in the far West Pacific the leading edge of the 30 deg isotherm was steady at 165W. The 29 degree isotherm was steady at 157W. The 28 deg isotherm line was backtracking from 124W to 143W today. The 24 degree isotherm extended the whole way across the Pacific and steady at 47m deep (25m earlier but at one point down to 65m). Anomaly wise, warm anomalies at +2 deg C start in the far West Pacific at 175E and +3 deg anomalies redeveloping starting at 172W and fading in coverage while pushing east. It appears new Kelvin Wave #9 is developing under the dateline. +4 degs anomalies associated with Kelvin Wave #7/#8 start at +143W (previously 145W) pushing east in a continuous stream into Ecuador. The warm pool in the east is discharging to the surface while being backfilled by a little more warm water from Kelvin Wave #9 but no longer growing in coverage. There's about 1.5 months of warm water backed up off the Ecuadorian Coast. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 12/29 indicates +1-2 degs anomalies starting at 175E and over a large section of the subsurface equatorial Pacific (Kelvin Wave #9) and building while tracking east with 3 deg anomalies from Kevin Wave #7/#8 at 125W and east of there erupting into Ecuador. A thin stream of +0.5 degree anomalies were falling off the Maritime Continent merging with the preexisting warm stream but cool water was building deep in the far West Pacific down 150m reaching east to 145W. No cool anomalies were indicated above 150m for the moment. El Nino is peaking. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (12/29) Sea heights were positive across the equatorial Pacific starting at 180W at +0-5 cms extending east into Ecuador. +5 cm anomalies covered the area starting at 160W to the Ecuadorian Coast (Kelvin Wave #7, #8 and #9) with +10 cm anomalies in pockets between 130W to 110W. No cool water was at depth but it appears the warm pool is starting to discharge to the east. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (12/29) warm water is rebuilding in the west from 167W to Ecuador with a broad pocket of +1.0-1.5 deg anomalies between 146W to Ecuador and moving east. The mature Phase of El Nino is peaking with cooler water developing over the West Pacific and warm water building in the east and pushing east with the final Kelvin Wave (#9) in flight. The demise of the warm pool in the west signals an eventual turn to La Nina (sometime next year).

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (1/5) The latest images depict a strong warm stream from Ecuador uniformly covering the area on the equator west to the dateline. Temps are building some from 90W to 140W. Pockets of stronger warming were again showing between the Galapagos and 130W. Heat also extends north up to Southern Baja and south down into North Chile. There is a very clear El Nino signal with the classic El Nino triangle in-place and building towards a strong status.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (1/5): A generalized warming trend is on the equator between the Galapagos out to 120W with a solid stream from Ecuador to 105W on the equator. Warming is also occurring along Chile, Peru,and Ecuador and strongly in pockets. In general a warming trend has been well entrenched over the East Pacific since Nov 1 2022.
Hi-res Overview: (1/5) Warmer than normal waters are filling the Equatorial Pacific from Ecuador to the dateline and strongest from 90W to 140W. The classic El Nino tongue of warm water is steady but not building over the equator west to the dateline. Everything is now looking like El Nino.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (1/6) (The official OISST temp record runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps are rising at +0.784 and have been rising since 1/27. Previously they were falling hard down to +0.224 (12/26) after being steady at +0.814 12/6-12/18. Before that they were building to +1.715 (11/27) and down at +1.0630 (11/20) after being at +1.657 (11/13) and up to +2.001 (11/6-11/10) then generally steady in the +1.9 degs range 9/28-11/9. Previous temps were down at +1.755 (10/22), down to +1.527 (10/6), up to +2.10 (9/17) and have been falling since 8/31 when they were up to +3.073 after rising to +3.164 (8/18) after being up to +2.925 on 8/10 after rising at +3.074 degs (8/7) after being up to +3.391 (on 7/20) and had been rising from +2.906 (starting 7/3) rising from +2.451 after peaking at +2.7926 on 6/13 and have been up in the +2.0 to +3.0 degs range since 4/1 having previously peaked at +2.891 (4/13). Previously temps reached +2.302 degrees on 4/6, +1.732 degs (3/22), up from +0.462 since 2/28. Temps had reached as high as +1.076 on 2/19 and were previously steady at +0.848 since 2/7. Previously they started steadily rising 11/13 when they were around -1.5 degs C.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (1/6) (OISST runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were fading some at +1.530 but were steady peaking at +1.6660 and up to +1.695 through 1/3. We are likely at peak temps now. Temps have been in the +1.5 range since 11/19. They were down to +1.236 (11/16) after being up to +1.449 on 11/2 and +1.300 on 10/20 after falling down to +1.149 (10/11). Weekly OISST are again at +2.0 (12/27, 12/20 and 12/13) after being at +1.9 (12/6), +2.0 degs (11/29) and +2.1 (week of 11/22 - the highest so far), then +1.9 the week before and +1.8 degs (previous 2 weeks). Anomalies were +1.6 the previous 2 weeks (10/18 & 1025), +1.5 the 3 weeks previous (through 10/11) after being up to +1.7 degs the week before and +1.6 degs 3 weeks in a row prior (starting 8/30) putting us in minimal strong El Nino status. Temps first time above +1.0 degs was on 8/7 after being up to +0.967 (8/1) up from +0.873 degs (7/25) after peaking at +0.985 (7/18). Previously temps were rising slightly at +0.882 (7/9) after being steady at +0.794 4-5 days and that after being steady at +0.895 (3 days near 6/25) after being in the +0.712 range the previous 9 days after previously rising to +0.975 on 6/9. We are now 31 days into a trend of being above the El Nino threshold (for the 2nd time). Temps reached the El Nino threshold for the first time on 5/17 at +0.507 then quickly fell over the next 10 days down to +0.378 (5/26). Previous peaks of +0.318 on 4/30 besting the previous peak at +0.199 on 4/21. Temps have been steadily increasing hitting 0.0 on 4/12 and were then more or less steady the previous 4 weeks. Temps previously rose to -0.402 on 2/23. Temps rose above the La Nina threshold (-0.5 degs) on 2/22 and had been rising slowly since 2/12 when they were about -1.0 degs C. They had been in the -1.0 deg range since at least Nov 2022.

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps started slowly rising to -0.75 degs in Jan 2023 and up to -0.5 degs (above the La Nina threshold) on 2/12. Temps rose to +0.50 degs mid-May and were at +0.9 degs in mid-June, and +1.05 mid July reaching up to +1.30 degs early Aug, +1.6 degs in Sept holding in Oct and , +1.95 in Nov and Dec.
Forecast (1/1) - Temps to are to hold at +1.95 degs though mid Dec. But this is nonsense. Temps are higher now than at any time in the past. Temps are to be falling to +1.5 mid- Jan and solidly in strong El Nino territory before starting a steady fade thereafter down to -1.3 degs in Sept 2024. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same thing. According to this version of the model we are at the peak of our strong El Nino.
IRI Consensus Plume: The December 20, 2023 Plume (all models) depicts temps are +1.67 degs today and it's the 8th month above the La Nina threshold. Temps to rise steadily from here forward up to +1.838 degrees in December (that's a 3 months running mean) then fading from there. The dynamic model suggest temps peaking at +1.900 in Dec/Jan/Feb before falling while the statistic models show +1.838 Dec/Jan/Feb before falling. This is higher than the previous months projections. The dynamic models are running a bit hotter than the statistic models and are likely more accurate. The CFS model is on the low end of the dynamic model range with 7 of 17 models above +2.0 degrees.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (1/4) the Daily Index was falling at -7.63 and has been negative the last 3 days. It was neutral 10 days prior to that. It was hard negative 6 days previous. It was neutral the previous 8 days (12/12-12/19). Otherwise was negative since 12/3. It had been mostly positive the previous 8 days (starting 11/25) but was negative 5 days previous, neutral for 2 days then negative the previous 12 days, Previously they were toggling between weakly positive and negative for 12 days (starting 10/24), but were solidly negative for 65 days prior (starting 9/16). It was positive the previous 7 days, then negative the previous 29 days (7/14-8/11) with a peak down to -37.30 on 7/25.The SOI has effectively been negative since 7/12. It was positive the previous 21 days then was negative 11 days prior and positive 5 days previous then negative for 27 days previous ending 6/6 with a peak down to -29.32 on 5/31, -64.63 on 5/24 and -31.31 on 5/12. Previously readings were toggling between +10 and -10 for 13 days, but negative the 15 days previous to that, positive the 6 days prior to that after being mostly negative 25 days before that. It fell to -19.40 on 4/2. -17.44 on 2/22, the beginning of a change from which no return seemed likely. It was up to +21.85 on 2/10 and +55.74 on 12/22 and were in the +20 range the previous 22 days.
The 30 day average was falling at -4.76 after being down to -10.43 on 11/16 and up to -5.75 on 11/5 and previously down to -15.70 on 9/23. It fell below the neutral point on 7/26. It rose above positive 7/3-7/25. It previously fell to -19.64 on 6/5 had been falling to -4.13 on 4/4 (lagging indicator driven by the Active Phase of the MJO) after falling to -0.52 on 3/22 previously falling to +4.18 on 11/27 and peaking at +21.57 (10/16) after supposedly peaking at +19.66 on 9/28. It was down to +6.89 on 7/29. It peaked at +20.34 (5/12) the highest in a year and beating last years high of +19.51 (1/14).
The 90 day average was falling at -6.00 after being up to -6.04 on 12/21 and turned negative the first time in years on 5/12. Recent max lows were -11.14 on 11/17, -11.85 on 10/15, -8.90 on 8/8 and -7.57 on 6/6. It previously peaked at +14.63 on 2/20, +15.61 on 10/25 and +12.92 on 8/11 and that after peaking at +18.40 (7/2) beating it's previous peak of +16.86 (5/31), the highest in a year. It previously peaked at +9.80 (9/21) after falling to it's lowest point in a year at +1.06 (6/9). The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 (2/23/21 - clearly indicative of La Nina then). This index is a lagging indicator but suggests that the Active Phase occurring now is starting to drive the index down, hopefully with no upward trend in sight for at least a year.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative ever since, driven by recent La Nina conditions. In May-July 2021 it was the most negative its been in the -1.80 to -2.04 range since Sept 2012 (-2.99) and then fell to -3.16 in Oct 2021 (the lowest since July 1933) then settled at -2.72 in Nov and Dec 2021. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.