Pacific Storm & Surf Forecast (Stormsurf)

Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt): Seas were 8.0 ft @ 13.3 secs with swell 4.6 ft @ 13.3 secs from 309 degrees. Water temp 76.8 (Barbers Pt), 76.6 (Pearl Harbor 233), NA (Lani 239).
Buoy 187 (Pauwela): Seas were 9.5 ft @ 10.5 secs with swell 4.1 ft @ 15.0 secs from 320 degrees. Water temp 77.4 degs
Buoy 106 (Waimea)/Buoy 202 (Hanalei): Seas were 12.3 ft @ 12.5 secs with swell 10.2 ft @ 12.8 secs from 330 degrees. Water temp 76.5 degs
Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 3.3 ft @ 13.7 secs with swell 1.9 ft @ 13.5 secs from 253 degrees. Wind north at 0-2 kts. Water temperature 59.5 degs, 58.3 (Harvest 071), 57.6 (Topanga 103), 57.6 (Long Beach 215), 59.7 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 58.6 (Del Mar 153), 60.3 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 4.4 ft @ 12.1 secs from 305 degrees. At E. Santa Barbara (46053) swell was 1.9 ft @ 12.8 secs from 270 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.8 ft @ 13.4 secs from 256 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.7 ft @ 13.4 secs from 253 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 2.7 ft @ 13.2 secs from 275 degrees. Water temperature was 57.2 degrees (Imperial Beach).
Buoy 029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 6.1 ft @ 12.5 secs with swell 3.7 ft @ 12.3 secs from 300 degrees. Wind southwest at 10-14 kts (46026) and west-southwest at 9-11 (1801589). Water temp NA (Bodega Bay 46013), 56.3 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 56.1 (San Francisco 46026), NA (SF Bar 142), 56.7 (1801589) and NA (Monterey Bay 46042).

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Tuesday (1/9) in North and Central CA waves were chest high and really sloppy and mushed with small whitecaps coming out of the southwest and mostly unrideable. Protected breaks were occasionally waist to chest high and very weak and mushed with some lump intermixed. At Santa Cruz surf was flat to thigh high and a bit warbled from light south winds and not rideable. In Southern California/Ventura waves were thigh to maybe waist high and clean with brisk offshore winds and decent form when they came but inconsistent and soft. Central Orange County had sets at chest to head high and lined up and real clean with no wind and good form but soft. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had waves at maybe waist high and lined up and clean but real weak and real soft. North San Diego had waves at waist to chest high and lined up and clean with decent form though a bit soft. Oahu's North Shore had waves at 8-10 ft Hawaiian and a warbled mess with onshore wind and rain early. The South Shore was waist high and trashed with whitecaps driven by south winds. The East Shore was getting east windswell at chest high and clean with brisk southwest winds.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Tuesday (1/9) California was getting leftovers energy from previous swell of not real interest. A gale developed over the North Dateline/Western Gulf regions Sat-Sun (1/7) producing 38 ft seas briefly aimed east. That swell is poised for California and hitting Hawaii but mostly buried in lesser quality swell. And yet a third system was developing on the Dateline Tues-Wed (1/10) producing 40 ft seas briefly aimed east. A local gale was developing off Washington on Tues (1/9) producing 28 ft seas aimed southeast but east of the CA swell window. A relatively local gale was developing 700 nmiles north of Hawaii Tues (1/9) and is forecast lifting north some Wed (1/10) producing 26-28 ft seas aimed south and southeast at the Islands. A small gale is forecast developing on the dateline Fri (1/12) with 33 ft seas aimed east. And maybe another is to set up on the dateline Mon-Tues (1/16) producing 30 ft seas falling southeast targeting Hawaii mainly. The Inactive Phase of the MJO is destructively interfering with the El Nino base state dampening storm formation.

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

Overview
Jetstream
On Tuesday (1/9) the jet was consolidated pushing east from Japan to the dateline centered on the 30N latitude line with winds to 150 kts forming a trough approaching the North Dateline supportive of gale development. The jet then split with most energy in the northern branch pushing hard north up to the Eastern Aleutians then falling southeast forming a trough and impacting the Pacific Northwest making mostly weather there. Over the next 72 hours that trough is to fall south and push inland just north of San Francisco making weather there into late Wed (1/10). Back to the west the North Dateline trough is to build while falling south with 190 kts winds supporting gale formation and getting pinched with it's apex nearly impacting Hawaii late Thurs (1/11) still offering some support for gale development before fully pinching off late Fri (1/12). Beyond 72 hours starting Fri (1/12) winds in the jet are to build to 170 kts streaming from Japan to the dateline then to 190 kts on Mon (1/15) carving out a new trough on the dateline but with a small split half way between Japan and the dateline likely stealing energy from the trough offering nothing. If not for that tiny split significant storm development would be possible.

Surface Analysis
On Tuesday (1/9) swell from a gale previously over the North Dateline region was impacting Hawaii and poised for California (see North Dateline Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours another small gale was developing just off Vancouver Island on Mon PM (1/8) producing northwest winds at 35 kts and seas at 23 ft at 47.5N 133W aimed southeast and mostly too north for even North CA (321 degs). The gale was building Tues AM (1/9) with up to 45 kts northwest winds but all shadowed relative to North CA but with 35 kt northwest winds reaching south and seas to 28 ft impacting Vancouver Island and 23 ft seas at 44N 131W aimed southeast on the great circle path to North CA (318 degs). Small windswell possible (see QuikCASTs for swell details).

And a local gale was developing just 600 nmiles north of Hawaii on Mon PM (1/8) producing northeast winds at 40-45 kts with seas 28 ft at 33N 160W aimed southwest with sideband energy targeting Hawaii. On Tues AM (1/9) 35 kt north winds were blowing with 24-26 ft seas at 30N 165W aimed south. The gale is to lift north with 30 kt north winds aimed at Hawaii and seas 20 ft at 29N 165W aimed south. Local windswell is possible for the Islands on Tues-Wed (1/10) (see QuikCASTs for swell details).

A somewhat more interesting gale started developing Mon PM (1/8) west of the dateline with 45-50 kt northwest winds over a small area and seas building from 32 ft at 43.5N 171.75E aimed southeast. On Tues AM (1/9) the gale was tracking east pushing up to the dateline with 50 kt northwest winds and seas 40 ft at 46N 177.5E aimed east. Fetch is to be moving east over the dateline in the evening with 40-45 kt northwest winds and seas 32 ft at 46N 178.75W aimed east. On Wed AM (1/10) the gale to lift north starting to move over the Eastern Aleutians with northwest winds 35 kts and seas fading from 27 ft at 47.5N 175W aimed east. Additional secondary fetch to continue in the evening tracking east at 30-35 kts from the northwest over the Northwestern Gulf with seas 24 ft at 43.75N 165.75W aimed southeast. Fetch fading Thurs AM (1/11) from 30 kts with leftover seas fading from 25 ft at 46N 160W aimed east. The gale to fade from there. More north angled swell to result for Hawaii and CA. Something to monitor.

Oahu: Swell to be buried in more local swell (see local gale info directly below).

North CA: Possible swell arrival on Sat (1/13) building to 2.8 ft @ 17 secs later (4.5 ft). Swell possibly building Sun (1/14) at 4.5 ft @ 15 secs (6.5 ft) with larger local windswell intermixed. Swell Direction: 297-299 degrees

And another local gale is forecast developing just north of Hawaii on Thurs PM (1/11) producing north winds at 30-35 kts and seas 19 ft at 28N 157W aimed south. Fetch building Fri AM (1/12) at 35+ kts just north of Hawaii with seas 26 ft at 26N 154W aimed due south at the Islands and only 300 nmiles away. Fetch to hold in the evening at 40 kts from the northeast targeting Hawaii directly with 26 ft seas at 27N 152W aimed south. Fetch dissipating there after. Larger raw local north swell is possible.

Oahu: Larger raw local windswell expected to arrive on Fri (1/12) peaking at 12.5 ft @ 12-13 secs at sunset (15 ft). Residuals fading Sat AM (1/13) fading from 8.6 ft @ 11-12 secs early (10 ft). Swell Direction: 340 moving to 360 degrees

North Dateline Gale
Another gale started developing just west of the dateline Fri AM (1/5) with 45 kt northwest winds and seas building from 24 ft roughly at 38N 167E aimed southeast. In the evening the gale lifted northeast over the dateline with 45 kt northwest winds and seas building from 28 ft at 44N 173W. On Sat AM (1/6) the gale moved over the North Dateline region with 45 kt west winds and seas 31 ft at 48.75N 168W aimed east. The gale is to build to storm status while lifting north over the Eastern Aleutians in the evening with 50 kt west winds still just barely south of the Aleutians and seas 38 ft at 51.75N 167.75W aimed east before moving over the Aleutians at 4 PM. On Sun AM (1/7) all fetch is to move into the Bering Sea with seas fading from 34 ft at 53.25N 166W aimed east. Swell possible from a northerly angle.

Oahu: Swell peaking on Tues (1/9) mid-day at 5.6 ft @ 12-13 secs (7.0 ft). Swell being overridden by more local swell on Wed (1/10). Swell Direction: 325 moving to 330 degrees

North California: Expect swell arrival on Tues (1/9) building to 2.1 ft @ 16-17 secs later (3.5 ft) and buried in local windswell. Swell Direction:303-307 degrees

Wed AM (1/10) high pressure returns with northwest winds 20 kts for North CA early and northwest mostly 20 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 15-20 kts for North CA and 20 kts for Central CA. Rain for Cape Mendocino early building south to Morro Bay in the evening. Snow building for the Sierra through the day and early evening.
Thurs AM (1/11) northwest winds continue at 15-20 kts for North CA and 25 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 10-15 kts for North CA and 10-15 kts for Central CA. Light rain for North CA at sunrise. Scattered showers early for the North and Central Coasts. Snow fading for the Sierra early.
Fri AM (1/12) northwest winds to be fading at 5-10 kts for North CA early and 10 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon south winds are forecast at 15 kts for Cape Mendocino and west 5 kts down to the Golden Gate and northwest 5-10 kts south of there over Central CA. No precip forecast.
Sat AM (1/13) south winds to be 20 kts early for Cape Mendocino early and southwest 10 kts for the rest of North CA and northwest 10 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon southwest winds are forecast at 15 kts for North CA and northwest 20 kts south of Pt Sur. Heavy rain and snow for Cape Mendocino early building south while fading limping into the Golden Gate after sunset. Low odds of snow showers for Tahoe in the evening.
Sun AM (1/14) northwest winds to be 10-15 kts for North and Central CA early. In the afternoon no real change is forecast. No precip forecast.
Mon AM (1/15) northwest winds to be 5 kts for North CA early and up to 10 kts from Big Sur southward. In the afternoon northwest winds are forecast at 5 kts for North Ca and 10 kts from Pigeon Point southward. No precip forecast.
Tues AM (1/16) northwest winds are forecast at 5 kts for Cape Mendocino and 5-10 kts from the Golden Gate southward early. no precip forecast.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at 24, 29, 16, and 3 inches respectively with most on Wed (1/10) and then a little on Sat (1/13).

Freeze Level for Tahoe Ski Resorts: Freeze Level generally at 3-4,000 ft through 1/12, then rising to 5,000 ft into 1/13 and then up to 11.000 ft steady beyond.

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Overview
Surface Analysis
No swell of interest coming from the Southern Hemisphere was hitting Hawaii or California. Summer is over.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

Beyond 72 hours a small gale is forecast developing over the Dateline Thurs AM (1/11) producing northwest winds at 45 kts aimed southeast while lifting northeast with seas building. In the evening northwest winds to be 50 kts with seas building from 26 ft at 35N 175E but lifting northeast fast. On Fri AM (1/12) 45 kt northwest winds to be east of the dateline with seas 33 ft @ 41N 173.5W aimed east. In the evening northwest winds are forecast fading from 45-50 kts just south of the Eastern Aleutians with seas fading from 30 ft at 44N 163.25W aimed east. This system to be gone after that. Something to monitor.

Another gale is forecast for the Southern Dateline area Mon PM (1/15) producing 50 kt northwest winds and seas building to 27 ft at 38N 175W aimed southeast. On Tues AM (1/16) 40 kt northwest winds are to be falling south with 30 ft seas at 33N 173.5W aimed southeast directly at Hawaii. Fetch fading in the evening with seas 25 ft at 28N 168W aimed southeast at Hawaii. Something to monitor.

El Nino Peaking
NINO3.4 SST Anomalies Reflect a Strong El Nino
1 Kelvin Wave traversed the Pacific in Dec '22 with a 2nd in Jan-Feb and a 3rd and 4th in March-April, a 5th in May and a 6th in August. But after the last Active MJO in mid-to-late May (resulting in Kevin Wave #5), the MJO stalled. Finally the Active Phase restarted in later July Producing Kelvin Wave #6 which is erupting off Ecuador now. Another Active Phase of the MJO and 3 associated Westerly Wind Bursts developed early Oct thru later Nov producing Kelvin Waves #7 and #8 which are erupting off Ecuador now. And westerly anomalies in Dec have now produced Kelvin Wave #9,. All these Active MJO/Kevin Wave pairs are backfilling warm water off Ecuador and helping push the atmosphere deeper into El Nino. And El Nino is finally evident in the atmosphere as evidenced by the jetstream, OLR. ocean current, and wind anomalies.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023.

Rationale: A 3 year La Nina started fading in Jan 2023 and was gone by April. 6 Active MJO's produced 6 Kelvin Waves over early to mid 2023 with Kelvin Wave #7 in August building over the West Pacific and the 4th, 5th and 6th backed up off Ecuador now (10/20/23). The CFS model is predicting steady west anomalies from here forward and the leading edge of the low pressure bias moving over California now filling the Pacific. We are now under an El Nino status. We are moving into a period of enhanced storm production (starting late Sept 2023) and beyond, getting intense come late Fall and early Winter. This should result in an above normal level of swells, with swells being longer than normal duration from here forward as El Nino gets a stronger footprint on the atmosphere. The net result is a well above normal number of swells with above normal size and duration (i.e 15 significant class swells perhaps). Last year there were 0 and year before 5 or less.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (1/8) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the East equatorial Pacific and modest east over the Central Pacific and modest east over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the East equatorial Pacific and neutral over the Central Pacific and moderate west over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (1/9) East anomalies were moderate plus filling the KWGA with west anomalies filling the East Equatorial Pacific. The forecast indicates east anomalies are to be moving east filling the KWGA into 1/19 and then moving from the dateline east but with west anomalies building at strong status over the West KWGA reaching the dateline at the end of the model run on 1/25. West anomalies to hold over the East Equatorial Pacific into 1/15 then dissolving. Certainly a massive strong Inactive MJO pulse signaling the beginnings of the end of El Nino.

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (1/8) The Inactive Phase of the MJO (dry air/cloud free skies) was centered over the KWGA today. The statistic model indicates the Inactive MJO (dry air/cloud free skies) is to push east through the KWGA on days 5-10 of the model run with the Active Phase (wet air/cloudy skies) trying to move east into the KWGA from the Maritime Continue on day 15 of the model run. The dynamic model depicts the same thing but with the Active Phase not making as much headway into the KWGA on day 15 of the model run.
Phase Diagrams - 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (1/9) The statistical model depicts the Active signal was weak over the Central Indian Ocean today. The forecast indicates it is to push east at either very weak or moderate status moving up to the far West Pacific 15 days out. The dynamic model indicates the the Active Phase easing east to the Central Maritime Continent 15 days out and modest strength there.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (1/9) A weak Inactive MJO pattern (dry air) was indicated over the KWGA today. The forecast has the Inactive Phase (dry air) filling the KWGA tracking east through 1/29. After that the Active Phase (wet air) is to track through the KWGA 2/3 through then end of the model run on 2/18.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (1/8) Today the Inactive Phase of the MJO was filling the KWGA with east anomalies in control and near it's peak. The forecast indicates the Inactive Phase and east anomalies are traverse the KWGA through 1/22. West anomalies are to persist over the East Equatorial Pacific through 1/15. After that a pattern of weak west anomalies are forecast to develop starting 1/16 and by 1/23 mostly filling the KWGA through the end of the model run on 2/5 with a weak Active MJO developing 1/22. The beginning of the end of El Nino is developing.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (1/9) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today the Inactive Phase of the MJO was over the KWGA with east anomalies filling it. The Inactive Phase is to traverse the KWGA through 1/25 with east anomalies holding. A moderate Active Phase is to follow 1/15-3/20 with moderate west anomalies filling the KWGA mainly over the dateline. A weak Inactive Phase is forecast 2/5 through 3/27 with modest east anomalies over the KWGA and filling it through the end of the model run on 4/7. The low pass filter indicates a broad low pressure bias is established over the KWGA centered at 170W with a 4th contour line (started 11/4) holding till 1/11. The third contour line is to fade on 3/2 with the second contour line fading 3/29. The high pressure bias was over the Maritime Continent on 10/2 and is to fade on 1/21. It appears a strong El Nino is in control and is to move east over the next 3 months while dissipating. Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) suggests cloud activity took over the KWGA weakly on 6/24 and started building in earnest then more solid starting Sept 15, It started building strongly on 10/16 and is continuing to build, strongly starting on 11/1 and is build through today. It is forecast holding at strong status near 170W to 3/3 then dissipating. Conversely clear skies started building over the Maritime Continent in mid-May and have continued solidifying today and are forecast building into Jan 15, then fading while holding rough at 120E.

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (1/9) Today in the far West Pacific the leading edge of the 30 deg isotherm was backtracking to 167W from 165W. The 29 degree isotherm was steady at 157W. The 28 deg isotherm line was steady at 143W after backtracking from 124W. The 24 degree isotherm extended the whole way across the Pacific and steady at 47m deep (25m earlier but at one point down to 65m). Anomaly wise, warm anomalies at +2 deg C start in the far West Pacific at 173E. +3 deg anomalies have collapsed to 148W previously at 172W a few days ago. It appears Kelvin Wave #9 was trying to develop but has now collapsed. +4 degs anomalies associated with Kelvin Wave #7/#8 start at +134W (previously 145W) pushing east in a continuous stream into Ecuador. The warm pool in the east is discharging to the surface while being backfilled by a little more warm water from Kelvin Wave #9 but no longer growing in coverage and if anything collapsing quickly. There's about 1.0 month of warm water backed up off the Ecuadorian Coast. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 1/3 indicates +1-2 degs anomalies start at 175E and over a large section of the subsurface equatorial Pacific (Kelvin Wave #9) and building while tracking east with 3 deg anomalies from Kevin Wave #7/#8 at 135W and east of there erupting into Ecuador. A thin stream of +0.5 degree anomalies were falling off the Maritime Continent merging with the preexisting warm stream but cool water was building deep in the far West Pacific down 150m reaching east to 145W. No cool anomalies were indicated above 150m for the moment. El Nino is peaking. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (1/3) Sea heights were positive across the equatorial Pacific starting at 175W (previously 180W) at +0-5 cms extending east into Ecuador. +5 cm anomalies covered the area starting at 160W to the Ecuadorian Coast (Kelvin Wave #7, #8 and #9) with +10 cm anomalies in pockets between 130W to 110W. No cool water was at depth but it appears the warm pool is starting to discharge to the east. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (1/3) warm water is holding steady in the west from 165W to Ecuador with a broad pocket of +1.0-1.5 deg anomalies between 148W to Ecuador and moving east. The mature Phase of El Nino is peaking with cooler water developing over the West Pacific and warm water building in the east and pushing east with the final Kelvin Wave (#9) in flight. The demise of the warm pool in the west signals an eventual turn to La Nina (sometime next year).

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (1/8) The latest images depict a strong warm stream from Ecuador uniformly covering the area on the equator west to the dateline. Temps are building some from 100W to 140W. Pockets of stronger warming were again showing between the Galapagos and 130W. Heat also extends north up to Southern Baja and south down into North Chile. There is a very clear El Nino signal with the classic El Nino triangle in-place and building towards a strong status.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (1/8): A generalized warming trend is on the equator between the Galapagos out to 120W. Warming is also occurring along Chile, Peru,and Ecuador and strongly in pockets. In general a warming trend has been well entrenched over the East Pacific since Nov 1 2022.
Hi-res Overview: (1/8) Warmer than normal waters are filling the Equatorial Pacific from Ecuador to the dateline and strongest from 90W to 140W. The classic El Nino tongue of warm water is steady but not building over the equator west to the dateline. Everything is now looking like El Nino.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (1/9) (The official OISST temp record runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps have risen some to +0.618 and have been rising since 12/27.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (1/9) (OISST runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were fading some at +1.381 but were steady peaking at +1.6660 and up to +1.695 through 1/3. We are likely at peak temps now. Temps have been in the +1.5 range since 11/19. Weekly OISST are at +1.9 week of 1/3. but were at +2.0 (12/27, 12/20 and 12/13) after being at +1.9 (12/6), +2.0 degs (11/29) and +2.1 (week of 11/22 - the highest so far), then +1.9 the week before and +1.8 degs (previous 2 weeks).

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps started slowly rising to -0.75 degs in Jan 2023 and up to -0.5 degs (above the La Nina threshold) on 2/12. Temps rose to +0.50 degs mid-May and were at +0.9 degs in mid-June, and +1.05 mid July reaching up to +1.30 degs early Aug, +1.6 degs in Sept holding in Oct and , +1.95 in Nov and Dec.
Forecast (1/9) - Temps are to fall to +1.5 degs in mid-Jan. But this is nonsense. Temps are higher now than at any time in the past. Temps are to be falling to +1.0 mid-Feb and steadily falling from there down to -1.4 degs in Sept 2024. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same thing but with temps falling to -1.1 degs in Sept. According to this version of the model we are at the peak of our strong El Nino.
IRI Consensus Plume: The December 20, 2023 Plume (all models) depicts temps are +1.67 degs today and it's the 8th month above the La Nina threshold. Temps to rise steadily from here forward up to +1.838 degrees in December (that's a 3 months running mean) then fading from there. The dynamic model suggest temps peaking at +1.900 in Dec/Jan/Feb before falling while the statistic models show +1.838 Dec/Jan/Feb before falling. This is higher than the previous months projections. The dynamic models are running a bit hotter than the statistic models and are likely more accurate. The CFS model is on the low end of the dynamic model range with 7 of 17 models above +2.0 degrees.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (1/9) the Daily Index was steady at +1.51 and has been effectively neutral the past month and since 11/20/22. This is not consistent with El Nino. Previously it was negative for 29 days (7/14-8/11) with a peak down to -37.30 on 7/25 and negative previously to 7/12 with peaks down to -29.32 on 5/31, -64.63 on 5/24 and -31.31 on 5/12.
The 30 day average was rising at -3.07, Recent max lows were -10.43 on 11/16 and -15.70 on 9/23.
The 90 day average was rising at -5.76. Recent max lows were -11.14 on 11/17, -11.85 on 10/15.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative ever since, driven by recent La Nina conditions. In May-July 2021 it was the most negative its been in the -1.80 to -2.04 range since Sept 2012 (-2.99) and then fell to -3.16 in Oct 2021 (the lowest since July 1933) then settled at -2.72 in Nov and Dec 2021. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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