Pacific Storm & Surf Forecast (Stormsurf)

Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt): Seas were 8.0 ft @ 12.5 secs with swell 4.8 ft @ 12.4 secs from 313 degrees. Water temp 76.1 (Barbers Pt), 75.4 (Pearl Harbor 233), NA (Lani 239).
Buoy 187 (Pauwela): Seas were 9.8 ft @ 11.1 secs with swell 7.3 ft @ 10.3 secs from 332 degrees. Water temp 77.2 degs
Buoy 106 (Waimea)/Buoy 202 (Hanalei): Seas were 19.3 ft @ 12.5 secs with swell 14.9 ft @ 12.3 secs from 322 degrees. Water temp 75.9 degs
Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 3.8 ft @ 5.9 secs with swell 1.9 ft @ 10.1 secs from 267 degrees. Wind east at 6-8 kts. Water temperature 59.0 degs, 58.3 (Harvest 071), 57.4 (Topanga 103), 57.7 (Long Beach 215), 59.7 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 57.7 (Del Mar 153), 60.8 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 5.3 ft @ 12.4 secs from 306 degrees. At E. Santa Barbara (46053) swell was 1.8 ft @ 12.7 secs from 266 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.3 ft @ 13.2 secs from 247 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.6 ft @ 13.3 secs from 251 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 3.0 ft @ 12.5 secs from 274 degrees. Water temperature was 57.9 degrees (Imperial Beach).
Buoy 029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 7.3 ft @ 12.5 secs with swell 5.5 ft @ 12.0 secs from 314 degrees. Wind north at 8-10 kts (46026) and northwest at 8-10 kts (1801589). Water temp NA (Bodega Bay 46013), 56.3 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 54.0 (San Francisco 46026), 54.1 (SF Bar 142), 55.2 (1801589) and NA (Monterey Bay 46042).

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Friday (1/12) in North and Central CA waves were chest to head high and lined up but pretty soft with a fair amount of warble running through it and heavily textured from modest northwest wind early. Protected breaks were chest high and lined up but pretty weak and mushed with light warble/texture on top. At Santa Cruz surf was waist to maybe stomach high and lined up but soft and somewhat warbled and not real rideable. In Southern California/Ventura waves were thigh high and clean and lined up but weak and inconsistent. Central Orange County had sets at waist to barely chest high and lined up and real clean with no wind but very soft. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had no waves but real clean conditions. North San Diego had waves to waist high and lined up and clean with decent form though real soft and weak. Oahu's North Shore had waves at 8-10 ft Hawaiian and a warbled mess with northerly wind and not rideable. The South Shore had thigh high sets and clean but with a fair amount of westerly warble running through it. The East Shore was getting north windswell at 1 ft overhead and chopped from brisk north wind.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Friday (1/12) Hawaii was getting new locally generated north windswell/proto swell with poor conditions. California was getting nondescript and unremarkable northwest windswell. And small but solid gale developed on the Dateline Tues-Wed (1/10) producing 40 ft seas briefly aimed east. Swell from that system is bound for California shortly. A small gale is developing on the dateline/Northwestern Gulf Fri (1/12) with 33 ft seas aimed east. Another small local gael was developing just north of Hawaii on Fri (1/12) too. Another small gael is forecast developing 900 nmiles north of Hawaii Sun-Mon (1/15) producing 32 ft seas aimed briefly south at the Islands. And maybe another is to set up on the dateline Mon-Tues (1/16) producing 38 ft seas falling southeast targeting Hawaii mainly. And another is forecast west of the dateline Wed-Thurs (1/18) falling southeast producing up to 39 ft seas targeting the Islands well. The Inactive Phase of the MJO is destructively interfering with the El Nino base state continuing to somewhat dampen storm formation and limiting production mainly to the dateline and points west of there.

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

Overview
Jetstream
On Friday (1/12) the jet was consolidated pushing east from Japan to the dateline centered on the 32N latitude line with winds to 170 kts forming a very pinched trough falling south over Hawaii supportive of low pressure if not gale development. The jet then continued east pushing inland over North CA producing weather there. Over the next 72 hours that trough is to evaporate (within 24 hours) with winds building west of the dateline to 180 kts but a split developing half way between Japan and the dateline on Mon (1/15) stealing energy from the main flow. And a second split is forecast developing north of Hawaii on Sun (1/14) with most energy tracking hard north towards Alaska. No solid troughs are forecast. Beyond 72 hours starting Tues (1/16) winds to build in the jet off Japan to 190 kts but with one split half way to the dateline tracking north and a second midway between HI and CA also tracking northeast. That said, winds to to 160 kts solid over the entire jet from Japan to a point just east of Hawaii aligned on the 30N latitude line. There's a sense that a trough might start building on the dateline on Wed (1/17) as the split west of there evaporates and another trough builds northeast of Hawaii both pushing east into Fri (1/19) but slowly weakening. At that time the jet is to be consolidated from Japan to a point just off Central CA with winds 160-170 kts over it's width centered on the 30N latitude line offering great potential to support gale development. We're almost there.

Surface Analysis
On Friday (1/12) local swell from a gale develop north of Hawaii was impacting the Islands (see Local Hawaiian Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours a small gale started developing over the Dateline Thurs evening (1/11) producing west winds at 45-50 kts with seas building from 24 ft over a small area at 38.75N 176.5E lifting northeast fast. On Fri AM (1/12) 50 kt west winds were just east of the dateline with seas 32 ft @ 42.5N 172.5W aimed east. In the evening northwest winds are forecast fading while racing northeast at 40 kts just south of the Eastern Aleutians with seas fading from 31 ft at 48.5N 164.75W aimed east. This system to be gone after that. Something to monitor.

Oahu: Rough data suggests sideband swell arrival on Sun (1/15) building to 3.5 ft @ 12-13 secs later (4.0 ft). Swell fading Mon AM (1/16) from 4.8 ft @ 12 secs (5.5 ft) and being overtaken by new north angled swell. Swell Direction: 330 degrees

North CA: Rough data suggests swell arrival on Tues (1/16) building to 3.6 ft @ 15 secs (5.5 ft) mid-day. Swell fading on Wed (1/17) from 3.2 ft @ 14 secs early (4.5 ft). Dribbles on Thurs (1/18) fading from 3.5 ft @ 12-13 secs (4.5 ft). Swell Direction: 296 degrees

Another small gale is forecast developing 1000 nmiles north of Hawaii on Sun AM (1/14) producing north winds at 40 kts with seas building from 21 ft at 40N 159.75W aimed south. In the evening north winds to build to 50 kts over a small area with seas 30 ft at 40.25N 157.75W aimed south. On Mon AM (1/15) the gale is to be fading with north winds 40 kts and seas 30 ft at 37N 156.5W aimed south. The gael is to be gone after that.

Oahu: Rough data suggests swell arrival on Tues (1/16) building to 6.2 ft @ 15 secs later (9.0 ft). Swell Direction: 350 degrees

And on Sun PM (1/14) another gale is forecast developing on the south dateline region with 45 kts northwest winds and seas building. On Mon AM (1/15) the gale is to have 50 kt northwest winds and seas building fast to 33 ft at 37.5N 175.25E aimed southeast. Fetch fading in coverage in the evening from 45 kts with seas 38 ft at 35N 177.75E aimed southeast well at Hawaii. On Tues AM (1/16) fetch is to be fading from 35 kts with seas 30 ft at 30.5N 179.75W aimed southeast at Hawaii. Something to monitor.

Local Hawaiian Gale
A local gale developed just north of Hawaii on Thurs PM (1/11) producing north winds at 30-35 kts and seas 18 ft at 28N 159W aimed south. Fetch was building Fri AM (1/12) at 35+ kts just north of Hawaii with seas 21 ft at 27N 155W aimed due south at the Islands and only 300 nmiles away. Fetch to hold in the evening at 35 kts from the north targeting Hawaii directly with 23 ft seas at 26N 154W aimed south. Fetch dissipating there after. Larger raw local north swell is possible.

Oahu: Larger raw local windswell expected to arrive on Fri (1/12) peaking at 11.0 ft @ 12-13 secs mid-day (10 ft). Residuals fading Sat AM (1/13) fading from 8.1 ft @ 11-12 secs early (10 ft). Swell Direction: 340 moving to 360 degrees

Dateline Gale
A gale started developing Mon PM (1/8) west of the dateline with 45-50 kt northwest winds over a small area and seas building from 32 ft at 43.5N 171.75E aimed southeast. On Tues AM (1/9) the gale was tracking east pushing up to the dateline with 45 kt northwest winds and seas 40 ft at 46N 177.5E aimed east. Fetch was moving east over the dateline in the evening at 40-45 kts from the northwest with seas 31 ft at 47.75N 176.75W aimed east. On Wed AM (1/10) the gale lifted north starting to move over the Central Aleutians with northwest winds 35 kts and seas fading from 27 ft at 49N 176W aimed east. Additional secondary fetch continued in the evening tracking east with northwest wind 30-35 kts over the Northwestern Gulf with seas 24 ft at 44N 160W aimed southeast. Fetch was fading while lifting northeast Thurs AM (1/11) from 30 kts with leftover seas fading from 24 ft at 46N 155W aimed east. The gale faded from there. More north angled swell to result for Hawaii and CA. Something to monitor.

Oahu: Swell to be buried in more local swell (see Local Hawaiian Gale above).

North CA: Possible swell arrival on Sat (1/13) building to 3.6 ft @ 17 secs later (6.0 ft). Swell possibly building Sun (1/14) at 4.0 ft @ 14 secs later (5.5 ft) with larger local windswell intermixed. Swell Direction: 297-299 degrees

Sat AM (1/13) south winds to be 20 kts early for Cape Mendocino and south 10 kts for the rest of North CA and northwest 5-10 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon west to southwest winds are forecast at 15 kts for North CA and northwest 10 kts south of Pigeon Point. Rain for all of North CA early with snow for Tahoe developing. Rain pushing south to Santa Cruz in the afternoon and solid snow for the Sierra mid-AM building over night.
Sun AM (1/14) northwest winds to be 10-15 kts for North and Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 10 kts for North Ca and 15 kts from Big Sur southward. Spotty showers fading for North and Central CA early. Snow fading fast for the Sierra and clear by afternoon. .
Mon AM (1/15) northwest winds to be 5 kts for North CA early and up to 10 kts from Big Sur southward. In the afternoon northwest winds are forecast at 5 kts for North CA and 10 kts from Pigeon Point southward. No precip forecast.
Tues AM (1/16) south winds are forecast at 5-10 kts for Cape Mendocino and northwest 5-10 kts from the Golden Gate southward early but up to 15 kts from Big Sur southward. In the afternoon northwest winds are forecast at 5 kts for North CA and 15 kts from Monterey Bay southward. No precip forecast.
Wed AM (1/17) light winds are forecast for North CA and northwest winds 10 kts for Big Sur southward. In the afternoon no change forecast. Light rain possible for Cape Mendocino early pushing south to Bodega Bay late morning, then clearing. No snow forecast.
Thurs AM (1/18) northwest winds are forecast at 5 kts early for North CA and 10 kts from Big Sur southward. In the afternoon light winds are forecast for all of California. No precip forecast.
Fri AM (1/19) south winds are forecast at 5 kts for most of the North and Central coasts early. In the afternoon low pressure is to be approaching filling the Gulf with south winds 10-15 kts for North CA and 5-10 kts for Central CA. No precip forecast.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at 32, 34, 32, and 6 inches respectively with all on Sat (1/13) fading Sun AM (1/14).

Freeze Level for Tahoe Ski Resorts: Freeze Level 5,000 ft on Sat 1/13, then rising to 9,000 ft on Sun 1/14 and then 10-11.000 ft steady Mon 1/15 through 1/19, falling to 8,000 beyond.

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Overview
Surface Analysis
No swell of interest coming from the Southern Hemisphere was hitting Hawaii or California. Summer is over.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

Beyond 72 hours another gale is forecast developing west of the Dateline Tues PM (1/16) producing 50-55 kt northwest winds over a small area and seas building to 29 ft at 34N 160.25E aimed southeast. On Wed AM (1/17) the gael is to lift northeast with 50 kt northwest winds and 41 ft seas over a tiny area at 36.25N 165.5E aimed southeast directly at Hawaii. Fetch holding position and strength at 55 kts with seas 36 ft at 38.75N 163.75E aimed southeast at Hawaii. Fetch holding Thurs AM (1/18) at 50 kts from the northwest with seas 39 ft at 37.5N 164.75E aimed southeast. In the evening the gael is to be falling southeast with 40 kt northwest winds and seas 36 ft at 32.5N 166.75E aimed southeast. Fetch fading from 35 kts over a solid area approaching the dateline and seas 31 ft at 34N 171.5E aimed southeast. Something to monitor.

El Nino Peaking
NINO3.4 SST Anomalies Reflect a Strong El Nino
1 Kelvin Wave traversed the Pacific in Dec '22 with a 2nd in Jan-Feb and a 3rd and 4th in March-April, a 5th in May and a 6th in August. But after the last Active MJO in mid-to-late May (resulting in Kevin Wave #5), the MJO stalled. Finally the Active Phase restarted in later July Producing Kelvin Wave #6 which is erupting off Ecuador now. Another Active Phase of the MJO and 3 associated Westerly Wind Bursts developed early Oct thru later Nov producing Kelvin Waves #7 and #8 which are erupting off Ecuador now. And westerly anomalies in Dec have now produced Kelvin Wave #9,. All these Active MJO/Kevin Wave pairs are backfilling warm water off Ecuador and helping push the atmosphere deeper into El Nino. And El Nino is finally evident in the atmosphere as evidenced by the jetstream, OLR. ocean current, and wind anomalies.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023.

Rationale: A 3 year La Nina started fading in Jan 2023 and was gone by April. 6 Active MJO's produced 6 Kelvin Waves over early to mid 2023 with Kelvin Wave #7 in August building over the West Pacific and the 4th, 5th and 6th backed up off Ecuador now (10/20/23). The CFS model is predicting steady west anomalies from here forward and the leading edge of the low pressure bias moving over California now filling the Pacific. We are now under an El Nino status. We are moving into a period of enhanced storm production (starting late Sept 2023) and beyond, getting intense come late Fall and early Winter. This should result in an above normal level of swells, with swells being longer than normal duration from here forward as El Nino gets a stronger footprint on the atmosphere. The net result is a well above normal number of swells with above normal size and duration (i.e 15 significant class swells perhaps). Last year there were 0 and year before 5 or less.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (1/11) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the East equatorial Pacific and moderate east over the Central Pacific and modest east over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the East equatorial Pacific and neutral over the Central Pacific and neutral over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (1/12) East anomalies were moderate plus filling the KWGA with west anomalies limited to a point south of California and east of there into Ecuador. The forecast indicates east anomalies are to be moving east filling the KWGA through 1/25 then moving east with modest west anomalies filling the LWGA from 1/25 and beyond through the end of the model run on 1/28. West anomalies to hold over the East Equatorial Pacific into 1/15 then dissolving. Certainly a massive strong Inactive MJO pulse signaling the beginnings of the end of El Nino.

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (1/11) The Inactive Phase of the MJO (dry air/cloud free skies) was centered over the KWGA today. The statistic model indicates the Inactive MJO (dry air/cloud free skies) is to push east through the KWGA on day 5 of the model run with the Active Phase (wet air/cloudy skies) moving east into the KWGA from the Maritime Continue on days 10 and 15 of the model run. The dynamic model depicts the same thing.
Phase Diagrams - 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (1/12) The statistical model depicts the Active signal was weak over the Central Indian Ocean today. The forecast indicates it is to push east at either very weak or modest status moving to the West Pacific 15 days out. The dynamic model indicates the the Active Phase easing east to the far West Pacific 15 days out at moderate strength.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (1/12) An Inactive MJO pattern (dry air) was indicated over the East Equatorial Pacific today KWGA today with the Active Phase (wet air) trying to move into the far West KWGA. The forecast has the Active Phase (wet air) tracking through the KWGA 1/17 through 2/6 and pretty strong. The Inactive Phase (dry air) is to follow over the KWGA 2/11 through the end of the model run on 2/21.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (1/11) Today the Inactive Phase of the MJO was peaking and filling the KWGA with east anomalies in control. The forecast indicates the Inactive Phase and east anomalies are traverse the KWGA through 1/25. A mixed west and east anomaly pattern to follow through 1/30. After that a weak Active MJO is to push through the KWGA 1/27 through the end of the model run on 2/8 with west anomalies building solidly over the dateline. The beginning of the end of El Nino is developing.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (1/12) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today the Inactive Phase of the MJO was nearly peaking over the KWGA with east anomalies filling it. The Inactive Phase is to traverse the KWGA through 1/25 with east anomalies holding. A moderate Active Phase is to follow 1/15-2/22 with moderate west anomalies filling the KWGA mainly over the dateline. A solid Inactive Phase is forecast 2/8 through 3/27 with modest east anomalies over the KWGA. Another active Phase is forecast 3/16 through the end of the model run on 4/10 with weak west anomalies in control. The low pass filter indicates a broad low pressure bias is established over the KWGA centered at 165W with a 4th contour line (started 11/4) holding till 1/13. The third contour line is to fade on 3/20. The high pressure bias was over the Maritime Continent on 10/2 and is to fade on 1/21. It appears a strong El Nino is in control and is to move east over the next 3 months while dissipating.

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (1/12) Today in the far West Pacific the leading edge of the 30 deg isotherm was backtracking to 171W from 165W. The 29 degree isotherm was backtracking to 159W from 157W. The 28 deg isotherm line was racing east at 110W after previously being at 143W. The 24 degree isotherm extended the whole way across the Pacific and steady at 47m deep (25m earlier but at one point down to 65m). Anomaly wise, warm anomalies at +2 deg C start in the far West Pacific at 174E. +3 deg anomalies have evaporated and are now much further east at 145W previously at 172W. It appears Kelvin Wave #9 was trying to develop but has now collapsed. +4 degs anomalies associated with Kelvin Wave #7/#8 start at +128W (previously 145W) pushing east in a continuous stream into Ecuador. The warm pool in the east is discharging fast to the surface while being backfilled by a little more warm water from Kelvin Wave #9 but no longer growing in coverage and if anything collapsing quickly. There's about 1 month of warm water backed up off the Ecuadorian Coast. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 1/8 is more optimistic indicating +1-2 degs anomalies start at 168E and over a large section of the subsurface equatorial Pacific (Kelvin Wave #9) and building while tracking east with 3 deg anomalies from Kevin Wave #7/#8 at 135W and east of there erupting into Ecuador. A thin stream of +0.5 degree anomalies were falling off the Maritime Continent merging with the preexisting warm stream but cool water was building deep in the far West Pacific down 150m reaching east to 145W. No cool anomalies were indicated above 150m for the moment. El Nino is peaking. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (1/8) Sea heights were positive across the equatorial Pacific starting at 170W (previously 180W) at +0-5 cms extending east into Ecuador. +5 cm anomalies covered the area starting at 155W to the Ecuadorian Coast (Kelvin Wave #7, #8 and #9) with +10 cm anomalies in pockets between 135W to 100W. No cool water was at depth but it appears the warm pool is starting to discharge to the east. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (1/8) warm water is holding steady in the west from 160W to Ecuador with a broad pocket of +1.0-1.5 deg anomalies between 148W to Ecuador and moving east. The mature Phase of El Nino is peaking with cooler water developing over the West Pacific and warm water building in the east and pushing east with the final Kelvin Wave (#9) in flight. The demise of the warm pool in the west signals an eventual turn to La Nina (sometime next year).

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (1/11) The latest images depict a strong warm stream from Ecuador uniformly covering the area on the equator west to the dateline. Temps are building some from 100W to 140W. Pockets of stronger warming were again showing between the Galapagos and 130W. Heat also extends north up to Southern Baja and south down into North Chile. There is a very clear El Nino signal with the classic El Nino triangle in-place and building towards a strong status.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (1/11): Weak pockets of cooling were between the Galapagos out to 100W. Warming is also occurring along Peru and Chile and fairly strong in pockets. In general a warming trend has been well entrenched over the East Pacific since Nov 1 2022.
Hi-res Overview: (1/11) Warmer than normal waters are filling the Equatorial Pacific from Ecuador to the dateline and strongest from 90W to 140W. The classic El Nino tongue of warm water is steady but not building over the equator west to the dateline. Everything is now looking like El Nino.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (1/12) (The official OISST temp record runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps are at +0.551 and have been toggling the past 2 weeks with the high point at +0.618 and have been rising since 12/27.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (1/12) (OISST runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were rising some at +1.488 but in general are steady, peaking at +1.695 on 1/3. We are likely at peak temps now. Temps have been in the +1.5 range since 11/19. Weekly OISST are at +1.9 week of 1/3. but were at +2.0 (12/27, 12/20 and 12/13) after being at +1.9 (12/6), +2.0 degs (11/29) and +2.1 (week of 11/22 - the highest so far), then +1.9 the week before and +1.8 degs (previous 2 weeks).

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps started slowly rising to -0.75 degs in Jan 2023 and up to -0.5 degs (above the La Nina threshold) on 2/12. Temps rose to +0.50 degs mid-May and were at +0.9 degs in mid-June, and +1.05 mid July reaching up to +1.30 degs early Aug, +1.6 degs in Sept holding in Oct and , +1.95 in Nov, +2.0 in Dec and +1.95 in Jan.
Forecast (1/12) - Temps are to fall to +1.5 degs in late-Jan. But this is nonsense. Temps are higher now than at any time in the past. Temps are to be falling to +1.0 mid-Feb and steadily falling from there down to -1.6 degs in Oct 2024. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same thing but with temps falling to -1.3 degs in Oct. According to this version of the model we are at the peak of our strong El Nino.
IRI Consensus Plume: The December 20, 2023 Plume (all models) depicts temps are +1.67 degs today and it's the 8th month above the La Nina threshold. Temps to rise steadily from here forward up to +1.838 degrees in December (that's a 3 months running mean) then fading from there. The dynamic model suggest temps peaking at +1.900 in Dec/Jan/Feb before falling while the statistic models show +1.838 Dec/Jan/Feb before falling. This is higher than the previous months projections. The dynamic models are running a bit hotter than the statistic models and are likely more accurate. The CFS model is on the low end of the dynamic model range with 7 of 17 models above +2.0 degrees.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (1/12) the Daily Index was rising at +13.10 and has been effectively neutral the past month and since 11/20/22. This is not consistent with El Nino. Previously it was negative for 29 days (7/14-8/11) with a peak down to -37.30 on 7/25 and negative previously to 7/12 with peaks down to -29.32 on 5/31, -64.63 on 5/24 and -31.31 on 5/12.
The 30 day average was rising at -2.63, Recent max lows were -10.43 on 11/16 and -15.70 on 9/23.
The 90 day average was rising at -5.40. Recent max lows were -11.14 on 11/17, -11.85 on 10/15.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative ever since, driven by recent La Nina conditions. In May-July 2021 it was the most negative its been in the -1.80 to -2.04 range since Sept 2012 (-2.99) and then fell to -3.16 in Oct 2021 (the lowest since July 1933) then settled at -2.72 in Nov and Dec 2021. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.