BUOY ROUNDUP
Sunday, January 14, 2024 :

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Sunday (1/14) in North and Central CA waves were 2-3 ft overhead and somewhat lined up but pretty warbled and wonky though local wind was calm and surface conditions clean. Protected breaks were 2 ft overhead and lined up if not close out with clean conditions. At Santa Cruz surf was 2 ft overhead and lined up with decent form but pretty warbled though surface conditions were clean. In Southern California/Ventura waves were waist to occasionally near chest high and line dup and clean with decent form but soft. Central Orange County had sets at thigh to maybe waist high and lined up and clean with no wind but soft. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had waves at thigh high with clean conditions and very soft. North San Diego had waves to waist high and lined up and clean with decent form though a bit on the soft side. Oahu's North Shore had waves at 1-2 ft overhead and somewhat lined up with decent form and clean but a little unorganized. The South Shore was flat and clean. The East Shore was getting north windswell at head high and warbled though local wind was calm.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Sunday (1/14) Hawaii was getting fading locally generated north windswell/proto-swell from a gale just north of the Islands Fri-Sat (1/13) with seas 22 ft. California was getting swell from a gale that developed on the Dateline Tues-Wed (1/10) producing 40 ft seas briefly aimed east eventually fading in the Northwestern Gulf on Thurs (1/11). A small gale developed on the dateline/Northwestern Gulf Fri (1/12) with 33 ft seas aimed east. Swell is moving towards HI and CA. Another small gale is developing 900 nmiles north of Hawaii Sun-Mon (1/15) producing 33 ft seas aimed briefly south at the Islands. And maybe another is to set up on the dateline Mon-Tues (1/16) briefly producing 31 ft seas falling southeast targeting Hawaii. And another is forecast west of the dateline Wed-Thurs (1/18) falling southeast producing up to 42 ft seas targeting the Islands well but from a very west direction and shadowed in some locations. The Inactive Phase of the MJO is destructively interfering with the El Nino base state continuing to somewhat dampen storm formation and limiting production mainly to the dateline and points west of there.

See all the details below...

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Sunday (1/14) the jet was consolidated pushing flat east from Japan to a point 600 nmiles north of Hawaii centered on the 32N latitude line with winds to 160-180 kts forming 2 small troughs with one just west of the dateline and the second north of Hawaii offering some support for gale formation. East of there the jet split with most energy tracking north up to the Alaskan Coast then pushing inland while falling southeast down the Canadian Coast making weather there. Over the next 72 hours a broad trough is forecast developing north of Hawaii Tues-Wed (1/17) imbedded in the steady jetstream flow offering support for gale development. And another trough is forecast starting to develop west of the dateline on Wed (1/17) offering some support for gale formation. Beyond 72 hours starting Thurs (1/18) the dateline trough is to slowly ease east and broad in coverage continuing to support gale formation and holding position on the dateline through the end of the model run on Sun (1/21) still supporting gale formation. At that time the jet is to be fully consolidated running from Japan and impacting Pt Conception with winds 180 kts over Japan and 170 kts over the entire width of the North Pacific North Pacific. Super impressive. This theoretically is starting to look like a real El Nino pattern.

Surface Analysis
On Sunday (1/14) local swell from a gale previously north of Hawaii was fading while impacting the Islands (see Local Hawaiian Gale below). Swell from a gale that developed while tracking east over the dateline is starting to show in California (see Dateline Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours swell from a gale that developed while tracking northeast over the dateline is pushing towards Hawaii and California (see small Dateline Gale below). And another gale was developing Sun (1/14) in the Gulf targeting Hawaii well (see Gulf Gale below).

Possible South Dateline Gale
And on Sun PM (1/14) another gale is forecast developing on the south dateline region with 40-45 kt northwest winds and seas building from 20 ft at 37N 169E aimed southeast. On Mon AM (1/15) the gale is to have 50 kt northwest winds and seas building fast to 30 ft over a tiny area at 40N 176E aimed southeast. Fetch fading in coverage in the evening while falling southeast with northwest winds 45 kts and seas 31 ft at 37.25N 177.25E aimed southeast well at Hawaii. On Tues AM (1/16) fetch is to be fading from 30-35 kts 300 nmiles northwest of Hawaii with seas 26 ft at 32N 178W aimed southeast at Hawaii. Fetch dissipating in the evening but with 20+ west winds impacting the Islands and local windswell building. Something to monitor.

Oahu: Rough data suggests swell arrival on Wed (1/17) building to 7.4 ft @ 12-13 secs mid-day (9.0 ft). This swell being possibly overtaken by new swell in 24 hours. Swell Direction: 310 degrees

North CA: Possible small swell arriving on Thurs (1/18) building to 4.6 ft @ 12-13 secs early (5.5 ft). Swell fading Fri (1/19) from 2.8 ft @ 11 secs (3.0 ft) Swell Direction: 280-285 degrees

Local Hawaiian Gale
A local gale developed just north of Hawaii on Thurs PM (1/11) producing north winds at 30-35 kts and seas 18 ft at 28N 159W aimed south. Fetch was building Fri AM (1/12) at 35+ kts just north of Hawaii with seas 21 ft at 27N 155W aimed due south at the Islands and only 300 nmiles away. Fetch to hold in the evening at 35 kts from the north targeting Hawaii directly with 23 ft seas at 26N 154W aimed south. Fetch dissipating there after. Larger raw local north swell is possible.

Oahu: Residuals fading Sun AM (1/14) fading from 4.5 ft @ 10 secs early (4.5 ft). Swell Direction: 10 degrees

Dateline Gale
A gale started developing Mon PM (1/8) west of the dateline with 45-50 kt northwest winds over a small area and seas building from 32 ft at 43.5N 171.75E aimed southeast. On Tues AM (1/9) the gale was tracking east pushing up to the dateline with 45 kt northwest winds and seas 40 ft at 46N 177.5E aimed east. Fetch was moving east over the dateline in the evening at 40-45 kts from the northwest with seas 31 ft at 47.75N 176.75W aimed east. On Wed AM (1/10) the gale lifted north starting to move over the Central Aleutians with northwest winds 35 kts and seas fading from 27 ft at 49N 176W aimed east. Additional secondary fetch continued in the evening tracking east with northwest wind 30-35 kts over the Northwestern Gulf with seas 24 ft at 44N 160W aimed southeast. Fetch was fading while lifting northeast Thurs AM (1/11) from 30 kts with leftover seas fading from 24 ft at 46N 155W aimed east. The gale faded from there. More north angled swell to result for Hawaii and CA. Something to monitor.

Oahu: Swell to be buried in more local swell (see Local Hawaiian Gale above).

North CA: Swell building Sun (1/14) at 4.0 ft @ 14 secs later (5.5 ft) with larger local windswell intermixed. Swell fading on Mon (1/15) from 4.5 ft @ 12-13 secs (5.5 ft). Swell Direction: 297-299 degrees

Small Dateline Gale
A small gale started developing over the Dateline Thurs evening (1/11) producing west winds at 45-50 kts with seas building from 24 ft over a small area at 38.75N 176.5E lifting northeast fast. On Fri AM (1/12) 50 kt west winds were just east of the dateline with seas 32 ft @ 42.5N 172.5W aimed east. In the evening northwest winds were fading while racing northeast at 40 kts just south of the Eastern Aleutians with seas fading from 30 ft at 48.5N 164.75W aimed east. This system to be gone after that.

Oahu: Sideband swell to arrive on Mon (1/15) building to 3.5 ft @ 12-13 secs later (4.0 ft). Swell fading Tues AM (1/16) from 4.8 ft @ 12 secs (5.5 ft) and being overtaken by new north angled swell. Swell Direction: 330 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Tues (1/16) building to 3.2 ft @ 15 secs (4.5 ft) mid-day. Swell fading on Wed (1/17) from 2.9 ft @ 14 secs early (4.0 ft). Swell Direction: 296 degrees

Gulf Gale
Another small gale was developing 1000 nmiles north of Hawaii on Sun AM (1/14) producing north winds at 45 kts with seas building from 23 ft at 41.25N 160.5W aimed south. In the evening north winds to build in coverage at 45 kts over a solid sized area aimed south with seas 31 ft at 38.5N 160.5W aimed south. On Mon AM (1/15) the gale is to be fading with north winds 40 kts and seas 30 ft at 36N 156.5W aimed south. The gal is to be gone after that.

Oahu: Rough data suggests swell arrival on Tues (1/16) building to 6.7 ft @ 15 secs mid-day (10.0 ft). Swell being overtaken by new more local swell on Wed (1/17) (see Possible South Dateline Gale above). Swell Direction: 350 degrees

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

Tropical Update
No tropical systems of interest were being tracked.

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at 27, 32, 13, and 2 inches respectively with a dribble on Wed (1/17) and most on Sun (1/21).

Freeze Level for Tahoe Ski Resorts: Freeze Level 10,000 ft Sun (1/14) falling briefly on Wed (1/17) to 7.000 ft then up to 10,500 ft Thurs-Fri (1/19) before falling to 7,000 ft beyond. Pretty high in general.

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Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for Resort specific forecasts).

South Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
No swell of interest coming from the Southern Hemisphere was hitting Hawaii or California. Summer is over.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours another gale is forecast developing west of the Dateline Tues PM (1/16) producing 45 kt northwest winds over a small area and seas building to 25 ft at 28.75N 153.25E aimed southeast. On Wed AM (1/17) the gale is to lift northeast building to storm status with 50-55 kt northwest winds and 34 ft seas over a small area at 31.5N 164E aimed southeast directly at Hawaii. In the evening fetch is to be holding position and strength at 55 kts with seas 41 ft at 35.25N 165.25E aimed southeast at Hawaii. Fetch fading Thurs AM (1/18) at 45 kts from the northwest with seas 43 ft at 31.5N 165.75E aimed southeast. In the evening the gael is to be tracking east and fading with 35-40 kt west winds and seas 35 ft at 30.5N 169.25E aimed east. Fri AM (1/19) fetch is to be fading from 30 kts over a solid area straddling the dateline and seas 29 ft over a large area at 28.75N 179.25E aimed southeast. Something to monitor. Based on latest data this swell would be mostly shadowed by Kauai from the North Shore of Oahu. Will monitor.

Remnants of the above gael are to continue tracking east Fri PM (1/19) producing west winds at 35 kts just east of the dateline with seas 28 ft over a small area at 33.25N 175.25W aimed east. The gael is to track east on Sat AM (1/20) with 35 kts west winds and seas 29 ft at 33.75N 169.25W aimed east. Fetch pushing east in the evening at 30 kts with seas 26 ft at 35.5N 162.25W aimed east. Fetch fading from there. This bears monitoring given the strength and position of the jet a week out.

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

MJO/ENSO Forecast

El Nino Peaking
NINO3.4 SST Anomalies Reflect a Strong El Nino
1 Kelvin Wave traversed the Pacific in Dec '22 with a 2nd in Jan-Feb and a 3rd and 4th in March-April, a 5th in May and a 6th in August. But after the last Active MJO in mid-to-late May (resulting in Kevin Wave #5), the MJO stalled. Finally the Active Phase restarted in later July Producing Kelvin Wave #6 which is erupting off Ecuador now. Another Active Phase of the MJO and 3 associated Westerly Wind Bursts developed early Oct thru later Nov producing Kelvin Waves #7 and #8 which are erupting off Ecuador now. And westerly anomalies in Dec have now produced Kelvin Wave #9,. All these Active MJO/Kevin Wave pairs are backfilling warm water off Ecuador and helping push the atmosphere deeper into El Nino. And El Nino is finally evident in the atmosphere as evidenced by the jetstream, OLR. ocean current, and wind anomalies.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023.

Rationale: A 3 year La Nina started fading in Jan 2023 and was gone by April. 6 Active MJO's produced 6 Kelvin Waves over early to mid 2023 with Kelvin Wave #7 in August building over the West Pacific and the 4th, 5th and 6th backed up off Ecuador now (10/20/23). The CFS model is predicting steady west anomalies from here forward and the leading edge of the low pressure bias moving over California now filling the Pacific. We are now under an El Nino status. We are moving into a period of enhanced storm production (starting late Sept 2023) and beyond, getting intense come late Fall and early Winter. This should result in an above normal level of swells, with swells being longer than normal duration from here forward as El Nino gets a stronger footprint on the atmosphere. The net result is a well above normal number of swells with above normal size and duration (i.e 15 significant class swells perhaps). Last year there were 0 and year before 5 or less.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (1/13) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the East equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and moderate east over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral to light east over the East equatorial Pacific and the Central Pacific and modest east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (1/14) East anomalies were moderate filling the KWGA with west anomalies limited to a point south of California and east of there into Ecuador. The forecast indicates east anomalies are to be moving east filling the KWGA through 1/25 then moving east with modest west anomalies filling the KWGA from 1/25 and beyond through the end of the model run on 1/30. West anomalies to hold over the East Equatorial Pacific into 1/16 then dissolving. Certainly a massive strong Inactive MJO pulse signaling the beginnings of the end of El Nino.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (1/14) Today in the far West Pacific the leading edge of the 30 deg isotherm was backtracking to 173W from 165W. The 29 degree isotherm was backtracking to 162W from 157W. The 28 deg isotherm line was racing east at 112W after previously being at 143W. The 24 degree isotherm extended the whole way across the Pacific and steady at 47m deep (25m earlier but at one point down to 65m). Anomaly wise, warm anomalies at +2 deg C start in the far West Pacific at 174E. +3 deg anomalies have mostly evaporated in that area with only one small pocket at 160W but continuous anomalies much further east at 143W previously at 172W. It appears Kelvin Wave #9 was trying to develop but has now collapsed. +4 degs anomalies associated with Kelvin Wave #7/#8 start at +125W (previously 145W) pushing east in a continuous stream into Ecuador. The warm pool in the east is discharging fast to the surface while being backfilled by a little more warm water from Kelvin Wave #9 but no longer growing in coverage and if anything moving east and collapsing quickly. There's about 1 month of warm water backed up off the Ecuadorian Coast. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 1/8 is more optimistic indicating +1-2 degs anomalies start at 168E and over a large section of the subsurface equatorial Pacific (Kelvin Wave #9) and building while tracking east with 3 deg anomalies from Kevin Wave #7/#8 at 135W and east of there erupting into Ecuador. A thin stream of +0.5 degree anomalies were falling off the Maritime Continent merging with the preexisting warm stream but cool water was building deep in the far West Pacific down 150m reaching east to 145W. No cool anomalies were indicated above 150m for the moment. El Nino is peaking. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (1/8) Sea heights were positive across the equatorial Pacific starting at 170W (previously 180W) at +0-5 cms extending east into Ecuador. +5 cm anomalies covered the area starting at 155W to the Ecuadorian Coast (Kelvin Wave #7, #8 and #9) with +10 cm anomalies in pockets between 135W to 100W. No cool water was at depth but it appears the warm pool is starting to discharge to the east. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (1/8) warm water is holding steady in the west from 160W to Ecuador with a broad pocket of +1.0-1.5 deg anomalies between 148W to Ecuador and moving east. The mature Phase of El Nino is peaking with cooler water developing over the West Pacific and warm water building in the east and pushing east with the final Kelvin Wave (#9) in flight. The demise of the warm pool in the west signals an eventual turn to La Nina (sometime next year).

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (1/13) The latest images depict a strong warm stream from Ecuador uniformly covering the area on the equator west to the dateline. Temps are building some from 100W to 140W. Pockets of stronger warming were again showing between the Galapagos and 130W. Heat also extends north up to Southern Baja and south down into North Chile. There is a very clear El Nino signal with the classic El Nino triangle in-place and building towards a strong status.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (1/13): A mostly neutral trend was between the Galapagos out to 140W but with some warm pockets interspersed. Warming is also occurring along Peru and Chile and fairly strong in pockets. In general a warming trend has been well entrenched over the East Pacific since Nov 1 2022.
Hi-res Overview: (1/13) Warmer than normal waters are filling the Equatorial Pacific from Ecuador to the dateline and strongest from 100W to 140W. The classic El Nino tongue of warm water is steady but not building over the equator west to the dateline. Everything is now looking like El Nino.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (1/14) (The official OISST temp record runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps are at +0.590 and have been toggling the past 2 weeks with the high point at +0.618 and have been rising since 12/27.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (1/14) (OISST runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were falling some at +1.430 but in general are steady, peaking at +1.695 on 1/3. We are likely past peak temps now. Temps have been in the +1.5 range since 11/19. Weekly OISST are at +1.9 week of 1/3. but were at +2.0 (12/27, 12/20 and 12/13) after being at +1.9 (12/6), +2.0 degs (11/29) and +2.1 (week of 11/22 - the highest so far), then +1.9 the week before and +1.8 degs (previous 2 weeks).

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps started slowly rising to -0.75 degs in Jan 2023 and up to -0.5 degs (above the La Nina threshold) on 2/12. Temps rose to +0.50 degs mid-May and were at +0.9 degs in mid-June, and +1.05 mid July reaching up to +1.30 degs early Aug, +1.6 degs in Sept holding in Oct and , +1.95 in Nov, +2.0 in Dec and +1.95 in Jan.
Forecast (1/14) - Temps are to fall to +1.5 degs in late-Jan. But this is nonsense. Temps are at their all time high now. Temps are to be falling to +1.0 mid-Feb and steadily falling from there down to -1.6 degs in Oct 2024. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same thing but with temps falling to -1.3 degs in Oct. According to this version of the model we are at the peak of our strong El Nino.
IRI Consensus Plume: The December 20, 2023 Plume (all models) depicts temps are +1.67 degs today and it's the 8th month above the La Nina threshold. Temps to rise steadily from here forward up to +1.838 degrees in December (that's a 3 months running mean) then fading from there. The dynamic model suggest temps peaking at +1.900 in Dec/Jan/Feb before falling while the statistic models show +1.838 Dec/Jan/Feb before falling. This is higher than the previous months projections. The dynamic models are running a bit hotter than the statistic models and are likely more accurate. The CFS model is on the low end of the dynamic model range with 7 of 17 models above +2.0 degrees.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (1/14) the Daily Index was rising at +26.43 and has been rising the last 4 days. It had been effectively neutral 11/20/23 through 1/10/24. This is not consistent with El Nino. Previously it was negative for 29 days (7/14-8/11) with a peak down to -37.30 on 7/25 and negative previously to 7/12 with peaks down to -29.32 on 5/31, -64.63 on 5/24 and -31.31 on 5/12.
The 30 day average was rising at -0.84, Recent max lows were -10.43 on 11/16 and -15.70 on 9/23.
The 90 day average was rising at -4.63. Recent max lows were -11.14 on 11/17, -11.85 on 10/15.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative ever since and the most negative in 2021-2023 since 2011, driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions. There's some sign of it rising in Nov/Dec 2023, but only slightly. In May-July 2021 it was the most negative its been in the -1.80 to -2.04 range since Sept 2012 (-2.99) and then fell to -3.16 in Oct 2021 (the lowest since July 1933) then settled at -2.72 in Nov and Dec 2021. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table