Pacific Storm & Surf Forecast (Stormsurf)

Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt): Seas were 4.3 ft @ 11.1 secs with swell 1.5 ft @ 17.0 secs from 324 degrees. Water temp 76.6 (Barbers Pt), 76.1 (Pearl Harbor 233), NA (Lani 239).
Buoy 187 (Pauwela): Seas were 9.2 ft @ 18.2 secs with swell 5.8 ft @ 17.8 secs from 340 degrees. Water temp 77.0 degs
Buoy 106 (Waimea)/Buoy 202 (Hanalei): Seas were 11.3 ft @ 16.7 secs with swell 8.7 ft @ 16.6 secs from 356 degrees. Water temp 75.7 degs
Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 2.8 ft @ 13.7 secs with swell 1.6 ft @ 12.8 secs from 250 degrees. Wind northwest at 4-6 kts. Water temperature 59.2 degs, 55.0 (Harvest 071), 57.2 (Topanga 103), 57.7 (Long Beach 215), 60.3 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 57.7 (Del Mar 153), 61.0 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 3.6 ft @ 9.8 secs from 297 degrees. At E. Santa Barbara (46053) swell was 1.8 ft @ 11.4 secs from 275 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.6 ft @ 11.4 secs from 258 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.4 ft @ 12.9 secs from 254 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 2.3 ft @ 12.7 secs from 270 degrees. Water temperature was 57.7 degrees (Imperial Beach).
Buoy 029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 5.9 ft @ 15.4 secs with swell 4.1 ft @ 14.7 secs from 295 degrees. Wind east at 10-14 kts (46026) and north at 2-3 kts (1801589). Water temp NA (Bodega Bay 46013), 56.3 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 54.1 (San Francisco 46026), 54.3 (SF Bar 142), 55.6 (1801589) and NA (Monterey Bay 46042).

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Tuesday (1/16) in North and Central CA waves were head high to 1 ft overhead and lined up with good form and clean conditions. Protected breaks were head high on the sets and lined up and clean with decent form. At Santa Cruz surf was chest high and lined up with decent form and super clean conditions. In Southern California/Ventura waves were waist high and lined up and clean with decent form. Central Orange County had sets at waist high and lined up and clean with no wind but soft. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had waves at maybe thigh high with clean conditions and very soft. North San Diego had waves to waist high with top spots chest high and lined up and clean with decent form though pretty soft. Oahu's North Shore had waves in the 8 ft Hawaiian range and lined up with decent form but with south winds kinda tattering it up. The South Shore was flat and chopped. The East Shore was getting north swell at double overhead and clean with brisk offshore/southwest wind.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Tuesday (1/16) California was getting small swell from a gale that developed on the dateline/Northwestern Gulf Fri (1/12) with 33 ft seas aimed east. Hawaii was getting larger swell from a small gale that developed 900 nmiles north of Hawaii Sun-Mon (1/15) producing 31 ft seas aimed briefly south but directly at the Islands. And another was developing on the dateline Mon-Tues (1/16) briefly producing 35 ft seas falling southeast targeting Hawaii well. And another is forecast west of the dateline Wed-Fri (1/19) falling southeast producing up to 43 ft seas targeting the Islands well but from a very west direction and partially shadowed at some locations on Oahu. The Inactive Phase of the MJO is destructively interfering with the El Nino base state continuing to somewhat dampen storm formation and limiting production mainly to the dateline and points west of there.

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

Overview
Jetstream
On Tuesday (1/16) the jet was consolidated pushing flat east from Japan to a point 350 nmiles north of Hawaii centered on the 30N latitude line with winds up to 190 kts forming 2 small troughs with one just west of the dateline and the second north of Hawaii offering some support for gale formation. East of there the jet remained consolidated to a point 1,200 nmiles west of Pt Conception then dissolved. Over the next 72 hours the dateline trough is to hold if not build while easing slightly east supporting gale formation on the dateline while the trough north of Hawaii eases east and start pinching off late Thurs (1/18) no longer supporting gale formation. And the leading edge of the consolidated just is to move east on Fri 91/19) positioned 400 nmiles off Pt Conception. Beyond 72 hours starting Sat (1/20) the dateline trough is to be broad in coverage continuing to support gale formation and if anything building on Tues (1/23) a bit northwest of Hawaii being fed by 180 kt winds. offering great support for gale formation. and winds east of the trough are to be 170 kts rising slightly off the US West Coast then pushing southeast down along and into the Central CA coast. Much weather is likely there while winds start building at 190 kts over Japan pushing east. A great El Nino fueled jetstream pattern looks possible.

Surface Analysis
On Tuesday (1/16) swell from a gale that developed while tracking northeast over the dateline is pushing towards Hawaii and California (see small Dateline Gale below). And swell from another gale that developed Sun (1/14) in the Gulf was starting to impact Hawaii (see Gulf Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours another gale is to be developing over the South Dateline region again targeting Hawaii well (see Possible South Dateline Gale below).

And another gale is forecast developing west of the Dateline (West Dateline Gale) Tues PM (1/16) producing 45 kt northwest winds over a small area and seas building to 29 ft at 32.5N 159E aimed southeast. On Wed AM (1/17) the gale is to lift northeast building to storm status with 50-55 kt northwest winds and 43 ft seas over a small area at 31.5N 165.75E aimed southeast directly at Hawaii. In the evening fetch is to be holding position and strength at 55 kts while building in coverage some with seas 42 ft at 34.5N 170.25E aimed southeast at Hawaii. Fetch fading Thurs AM (1/18) from 50 kts from the northwest with seas 42 ft at 33N 164.75E aimed southeast. In the evening the gale is to be tracking east and fading with 35-45 kt west winds and seas 36 ft at 30.5N 169.5E aimed east. Fri AM (1/19) fetch is to be fading from 35 kts over a solid area straddling the dateline and seas 31 ft over a large area at 32.75N 174.75E aimed southeast. Something to monitor. Based on latest data this swell would partially shadowed by Kauai from the North Shore of Oahu (swell from the core of the storm at 294.6-297.0 degrees). Will monitor.

Oahu: For planning purposes expect swell arrival on Sat (1/20) building to 5.5 ft @ 17 secs late (9.0 ft). Swell stable on Sun (1/21) holding at 7.6 ft @ 16 secs (12 ft). Swell fading some on Mon (1/22) at 5.5 ft @ 14 secs early (7.5 ft). Swell Direction: 294.6-297.0 degrees with energy up to 302 degrees

North CA: Tiny swell possible starting Mon (1/22) at 2.7 ft @ 17-18 secs later (4.5 ft) Swell Direction: 280 degrees

Small Dateline Gale
A small gale started developing over the Dateline Thurs evening (1/11) producing west winds at 45-50 kts with seas building from 24 ft over a small area at 38.75N 176.5E lifting northeast fast. On Fri AM (1/12) 50 kt west winds were just east of the dateline with seas 32 ft @ 42.5N 172.5W aimed east. In the evening northwest winds were fading while racing northeast at 40 kts just south of the Eastern Aleutians with seas fading from 30 ft at 48.5N 164.75W aimed east. This system was gone after that.

Oahu: Swell fading Tues AM (1/16) from 4.8 ft @ 12 secs (5.5 ft) and being overtaken by new north angled swell. Swell Direction: 330 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Tues (1/16) building to 3.2 ft @ 15 secs (4.5 ft) mid-day. Swell fading on Wed (1/17) from 2.8 ft @ 13-14 secs early (3.5-4.0 ft). Swell Direction: 296 degrees

Gulf Gale
Another small gale developed 1,000 nmiles north of Hawaii on Sun AM (1/14) producing north winds at 45 kts with seas building from 23 ft at 41.25N 160.5W aimed south. In the evening north wind built in coverage at 40-45 kts over a solid sized area aimed south with seas 31 ft at 39N 160.5W aimed south. On Mon AM (1/15) the gale was fading with north winds 40 kts and seas 29 ft at 37.5N 157.5W aimed south. The gale was gone after that.

Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Tues (1/16) building to 7.0 ft @ 15 secs mid-day (10.5 ft). Swell being overtaken by new more local swell on Wed (1/17) (see Possible South Dateline Gale below). Swell Direction: 350 degrees

Possible South Dateline Gale
And on Sun PM (1/14) another gale was developing on the south dateline region with 40 kt northwest winds and seas building from 20 ft at 36N 169E aimed southeast. On Mon AM (1/15) the gale had 45 kt northwest winds and seas building fast to 29 ft over a small area at 38.25N 176.5E aimed southeast. Fetch was fading in coverage in the evening while falling southeast with northwest winds 45 kts and seas 35 ft at 35N 179.75E aimed southeast well at Hawaii. On Tues AM (1/16) fetch was fading from 30-35 kts 600 nmiles northwest of Hawaii with seas 29 ft at 31N 179.75W aimed southeast at Hawaii. Fetch dissipating in the evening but with 22 ft seas at 27N 172W aimed southeast and 25 kt west winds impacting Kauai with local windswell building. Something to monitor.

Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Wed (1/17) building to 7.6 ft @ 12-13 secs mid-day (9.5 ft). This swell building more peaking Thurs AM (1/18) at 7.0 ft @ 14-15 secs early (10 ft). Swell fading Fri (1/19) from 4.8 ft @ 12 secs early (5.5 ft). Swell Direction: 310-320 degrees

North CA: Expect small swell arriving on Thurs (1/18) building to 4.5 ft @ 12-13 secs early (5.5 ft). Swell fading Fri (1/19) from 2.8 ft @ 11 secs (3.0 ft) Swell Direction: 280-285 degrees

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Wed AM (1/17) west winds are forecast at 20 kts for north Cape Mendocino and west at 5 kts early for North CA and northwest winds 5 kts for Big Sur southward. In the afternoon southwest winds are forecast at 5-10 kts for Cape Mendocino and northwest winds at 5 kts for Central CA. Light scattered rain fading fast early for North and Central CA early. Light snow for the highest elevations of the Central Sierra forecast early.
Thurs AM (1/18) low pressure is to be filling the Gulf approaching the US West Coast. South winds are forecast at 10-15 kts for Cape Mendocino and 5 kts early for the rest of North CA and variable winds 5 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon south winds are forecast at 15 kts for Cape Mendocino down to Bodega Bay and south 5-10 kts south of the Golden Gate. No precip forecast.
Fri AM (1/19) low pressure is to be slowly easing east poised to impact the US West Coast. South winds are forecast at 20-30 kts for North CA and 5-10 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon the front impacts North CA with south winds 20+ kts for all of North CA and south 20+ kts for most of Central CA. Rain for the North CA coast starting mid-AM covering all of North and Central CA late afternoon into the evening. Snow developing for the higher elevations of the Sierra in the evening.
Sat AM (1/20) the front is to be gone with lingering southwest winds at 10 kts for North CA and northwest winds 5 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon a new front is to be approaching the US West Coast with south winds 15-20 kts for most of North CA and south winds 5 kts for Central CA. Rain for all of North and Central CA early slowly fading through the day. Snow for the Sierra early fading late afternoon. Light snow in the evening.
Sun AM (1/21) the front is to be impacting North CA with south winds 30-35 kts for Cape Mendocino and south winds 20 kts down over the Golden Gate to Monterey Bay with south winds 10 kts for the rest of Central CA. In the afternoon south winds continue at 20-25 kts for all of North and Central CA and south winds to 15 kts down to at least LA County. Rain for all of North and Central CA early getting heavy for Central CA late afternoon and building over all of Southern CA in the afternoon. Rain continuing for the state overnight. Snow for high elevations of the Sierra early and then again in the evening.
Mon AM (1/22) west winds are forecast at 10 kts for North CA and northwest 10 kts for Central CA and 15 kts for Southern CA. In the afternoon a light southwest flow at 5-10 kts is forecast for North CA and northwest at 5 kts for Central CA but 15 kts for Southern CA. Rain for the entire state early clearing some in the afternoon. Solid snow for the Sierra early fading slowly through the day.
Tues AM (1/23) another low is to be in the Gulf with a front well off North CA with south winds 10 kts for Cape Mendocino and south winds 5 kts down to the Golden Gate and northwest winds 10 kts for Central CA early. No precip forecast.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at 44, 46, 36, and 15 inches respectively with a dribble on Wed (1/17) and most on Fri-Mon (1/22).

Freeze Level for Tahoe Ski Resorts: Freeze Level 10,000 ft Sun (1/14) falling briefly on Wed (1/17) to 5.500 ft then up to 10,500 ft Thurs-Fri (1/19) before falling back to 5,500 ft then up to about 6,500 ft on Mon (1/22) rising to 8.500 ft on Wed (1/24). Not particularly cold.

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Overview
Surface Analysis
No swell of interest coming from the Southern Hemisphere was hitting Hawaii or California. Summer is over.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

Beyond 72 hours remnants of the West Dateline Gale (above) are to continue tracking east Fri PM (1/19) producing west winds at 35-40 kts just east of the dateline with seas 32 ft over a small area at 32.25N 177.5W aimed east. The gale is to track east on Sat AM (1/20) producing 30-35 kt west winds over a solid area north of Hawaii aimed east with seas 26-30 ft centered at 34.75N 169W aimed east. Fetch pushing east in the evening at 30-35 kts from the dateline to the Central Gulf targeting both Hawaii and the US West Coast with seas 20 ft over a large swath from the dateline to the Gulf and peaking at 29 ft at 37N 160.25W aimed east. On Sun AM (1/21) fetch is to become focused on the South Dateline at 35-40 kts from the northwest with seas 25 ft at 31N 176E aimed east at Hawaii and 25 ft at 39.25N 153.75W aimed at the US West Coast. from there. In the evening the dateline fetch takes over at 35-40 kts from the west aimed east at Hawaii with seas 27 ft at 28.5N 178.25W aimed east-southeast. Fetch fading Mon AM (1/22) from 30 kts 600 nmiles northwest of Hawaii with seas fading from 25 ft at 26.75N 171.25W aimed east. This bears monitoring given the strength and position of the jet a week out. Much swell possible for Hawaii with smaller and friendlier swell for the US West Coast.

El Nino Peaking
NINO3.4 SST Anomalies Reflect a Strong El Nino
1 Kelvin Wave traversed the Pacific in Dec '22 with a 2nd in Jan-Feb and a 3rd and 4th in March-April, a 5th in May and a 6th in August. But after the last Active MJO in mid-to-late May (resulting in Kevin Wave #5), the MJO stalled. Finally the Active Phase restarted in later July Producing Kelvin Wave #6 which is erupting off Ecuador now. Another Active Phase of the MJO and 3 associated Westerly Wind Bursts developed early Oct thru later Nov producing Kelvin Waves #7 and #8 which are erupting off Ecuador now. And westerly anomalies in Dec have now produced Kelvin Wave #9,. All these Active MJO/Kevin Wave pairs are backfilling warm water off Ecuador and helping push the atmosphere deeper into El Nino. And El Nino is finally evident in the atmosphere as evidenced by the jetstream, OLR. ocean current, and wind anomalies.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023.

Rationale: A 3 year La Nina started fading in Jan 2023 and was gone by April. 6 Active MJO's produced 6 Kelvin Waves over early to mid 2023 with Kelvin Wave #7 in August building over the West Pacific and the 4th, 5th and 6th backed up off Ecuador now (10/20/23). The CFS model is predicting steady west anomalies from here forward and the leading edge of the low pressure bias moving over California now filling the Pacific. We are now under an El Nino status. We are moving into a period of enhanced storm production (starting late Sept 2023) and beyond, getting intense come late Fall and early Winter. This should result in an above normal level of swells, with swells being longer than normal duration from here forward as El Nino gets a stronger footprint on the atmosphere. The net result is a well above normal number of swells with above normal size and duration (i.e 15 significant class swells perhaps). Last year there were 0 and year before 5 or less.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (1/15) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the East equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and moderate to strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were light east over the East equatorial Pacific and moderate east over the Central Pacific and modest east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (1/16) East anomalies were moderate filling the KWGA with no west anomalies left in the Pacific. The forecast indicates east anomalies are to be moving east filling the KWGA through 1/29 then moving east with modest west anomalies filling the KWGA from 1/29 and beyond through the end of the model run on 2/1. Certainly a massive strong Inactive MJO pulse signaling the beginnings of the end of El Nino.

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (1/15) The Inactive Phase of the MJO (dry air/cloud free skies) was centered over the KWGA today. The statistic model indicates the Inactive MJO (dry air/cloud free skies) is to push east through the KWGA on day 5 of the model run with the Active Phase (wet air/cloudy skies) moving east filling the KWGA on days 10 and 15 of the model run. The dynamic model depicts the same thing.
Phase Diagrams - 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (1/16) The statistical model depicts the Active signal was weak over the West Maritime Continent today. The forecast indicates it is to push east at either very weak or moderate status moving to the West Pacific 15 days out. The dynamic model indicates the the Active Phase easing east to the West Pacific 11 days out at moderate strength then retrograding west at weak status 15 days out.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (1/16) A weak Active MJO pattern (wet air) was indicated building over the KWGA today. The forecast has the Active Phase (wet air) building and tracking through the KWGA through 2/5 and pretty strong. The Inactive Phase (dry air) is to follow over the KWGA 2/15 through the end of the model run on 2/25.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (1/15) Today the Inactive Phase of the MJO was past its peak over the KWGA with east anomalies in control. The forecast indicates the Inactive Phase and east anomalies are traverse the KWGA through 1/24. A mixed west and east anomaly pattern to follow 1/25 through the end of the model run on 2/12 with perhaps the Active MJO moving into the KWGA towards the end of the model run. The beginning of the end of El Nino is developing.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (1/16) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today the Inactive Phase of the MJO was peaking over the KWGA with east anomalies filling it. The Inactive Phase is to traverse the KWGA through 1/24 with east anomalies holding. A moderate Active Phase is to follow 1/17-3/7 with moderate west anomalies filling the KWGA mainly over the dateline from 1/20 to 3/15. A solid Inactive Phase is forecast 2/21 through the end of the model run on 4/13 with modest east anomalies over the KWGA. A weak Active Phase is forecast 4/5 through the end of the model run with mostly weak east anomalies holding. The low pass filter indicates a broad low pressure bias is established over the KWGA centered at 165W with a 4th contour line now gone (lasted 11/4-1/14). The third contour line is to fade on 3/6. The high pressure bias was over the Maritime Continent on 10/2 and is to fade on 1/21. It appears a strong El Nino is in control and is to move east over the next 3 months while dissipating.

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (1/16) Today in the far West Pacific the leading edge of the 30 deg isotherm was backtracking to 173W from 165W. The 29 degree isotherm was backtracking to 164W from 157W. The 28 deg isotherm line had raced east at 112W but today is back at 145W and is likely to retreat from there. The 24 degree isotherm extended the whole way across the Pacific and steady at 47m deep (25m earlier but at one point down to 65m). Anomaly wise, warm anomalies at +2 deg C start in the far West Pacific at 174E. +3 deg anomalies have evaporated in that area but are continuous much further east starting at 138W (previously 143W and t 172W. Kelvin Wave #9 tried to develop but has now collapsed. +4 degs anomalies associated with Kelvin Wave #7/#8 start at +125W (previously 145W) pushing east in a continuous stream into Ecuador. The warm pool in the east is discharging fast to the surface while being backfilled by a little more warm water from what was to be Kelvin Wave #9 but no longer growing in coverage and if anything moving east and collapsing quickly. There's about 1 month of warm water backed up off the Ecuadorian Coast. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 1/8 is more optimistic indicating +1-2 degs anomalies start at 168E and over a large section of the subsurface equatorial Pacific (Kelvin Wave #9) and building while tracking east with 3 deg anomalies from Kevin Wave #7/#8 at 135W and east of there erupting into Ecuador. A thin stream of +0.5 degree anomalies were falling off the Maritime Continent merging with the preexisting warm stream but cool water was building deep in the far West Pacific down 150m reaching east to 145W. No cool anomalies were indicated above 150m for the moment. El Nino is peaking. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (1/8) Sea heights were positive across the equatorial Pacific starting at 170W (previously 180W) at +0-5 cms extending east into Ecuador. +5 cm anomalies covered the area starting at 145W (previously 155W) to the Ecuadorian Coast (Kelvin Wave #7, #8 and #9) with +10 cm anomalies in 2 small pockets between 120W to 100W. No cool water was at depth but it appears the warm pool is starting to discharge quickly to the east. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (1/8) warm water is holding racing east with +0.5 degs anomalies starting at 155W (previously 160W) to Ecuador with a broad pocket of +1.0-1.5 deg anomalies between 143W (previously 148W) to Ecuador and moving east. The mature Phase of El Nino is peaking with cooler water developing over the West Pacific and warm water building in the east and pushing east with the final Kelvin Wave (#9) in flight. The demise of the warm pool in the west signals an eventual turn to La Nina (sometime next year).

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (1/15) The latest images depict a strong warm stream from Ecuador uniformly covering the area on the equator west to the dateline. Temps are building some from 100W to 140W. Pockets of stronger warming were again showing even stronger between the Galapagos and 130W. Heat also extends north up to Southern Baja and south down into North Chile. There is a very clear El Nino signal with the classic El Nino triangle in-place and building towards a strong status.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (1/15): A mostly neutral trend was between the Galapagos out to 140W but with some warm pockets interspersed. Warming is also occurring along Peru and Chile and fairly strong in pockets. In general a warming trend has been well entrenched over the East Pacific since Nov 1 2022.
Hi-res Overview: (1/15) Warmer than normal waters are filling the Equatorial Pacific from Ecuador to the dateline and strongest from 100W to 140W. The classic El Nino tongue of warm water is steady but not building over the equator west to the dateline. Everything is now looking like El Nino.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (1/16) (The official OISST temp record runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps are steady at +0.590 and have been toggling the past 2 weeks with the high point at +0.618 and have been rising since 12/27.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (1/16) (OISST runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were falling some at +1.308 but in general have been steady, peaking at +1.695 on 1/3. We are likely past peak temps now. Temps have been in the +1.5 range since 11/19. Weekly OISST are at +1.9 week of 1/10 and 1/3. but were at +2.0 (12/27, 12/20 and 12/13) after being at +1.9 (12/6), +2.0 degs (11/29) and +2.1 (week of 11/22 - the highest so far), then +1.9 the week before and +1.8 degs (previous 2 weeks).

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps started slowly rising to -0.75 degs in Jan 2023 and up to -0.5 degs (above the La Nina threshold) on 2/12. Temps rose to +0.50 degs mid-May and were at +0.9 degs in mid-June, and +1.05 mid July reaching up to +1.30 degs early Aug, +1.6 degs in Sept holding in Oct and , +1.95 in Nov, +2.0 in Dec and +1.95 in Jan.
Forecast (1/15) - Temps are to fall to +1.5 degs in late-Jan. But this is nonsense. Temps are near their all time high now. Temps are to be falling to +1.0 mid-Feb and steadily falling from there down to -1.6 degs in Oct 2024. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same thing but with temps falling to -1.3 degs in Oct. According to this version of the model we are at the peak of our strong El Nino.
IRI Consensus Plume: The December 20, 2023 Plume (all models) depicts temps are +1.67 degs today and it's the 8th month above the La Nina threshold. Temps to rise steadily from here forward up to +1.838 degrees in December (that's a 3 months running mean) then fading from there. The dynamic model suggest temps peaking at +1.900 in Dec/Jan/Feb before falling while the statistic models show +1.838 Dec/Jan/Feb before falling. This is higher than the previous months projections. The dynamic models are running a bit hotter than the statistic models and are likely more accurate. The CFS model is on the low end of the dynamic model range with 7 of 17 models above +2.0 degrees.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (1/16) the Daily Index was rising at +31.61 and has been rising the last 6 days. It had been effectively neutral 11/20/23 through 1/10/24. This is not consistent with El Nino. Previously it was negative for 29 days (7/14-8/11) with a peak down to -37.30 on 7/25 and negative previously to 7/12 with peaks down to -29.32 on 5/31, -64.63 on 5/24 and -31.31 on 5/12.
The 30 day average was rising at +0.63, Recent max lows were -10.43 on 11/16 and -15.70 on 9/23.
The 90 day average was rising at -3.72. Recent max lows were -11.14 on 11/17, -11.85 on 10/15.
El Nino is collapsing

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative ever since and the most negative in 2021-2023 since 2011, driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions. There's some sign of it rising in Nov/Dec 2023, but only slightly. In May-July 2021 it was the most negative its been in the -1.80 to -2.04 range since Sept 2012 (-2.99) and then fell to -3.16 in Oct 2021 (the lowest since July 1933) then settled at -2.72 in Nov and Dec 2021. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.