BUOY ROUNDUP
Friday, January 19, 2024 :

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Friday (1/19) in North and Central CA waves were waist to maybe chest high on the peak and somewhat lined up with good form coming from the south with clean conditions. Protected breaks were thigh high on the sets and soft and clean with decent form. At Santa Cruz surf was maybe waist high and weakly lined up and mushed with a fair amount of warble and slop in the water from south wind. In Southern California/Ventura waves were thigh to maybe waist high and lined up and clean with decent form but soft and inconsistent. Central Orange County had sets at shoulder high and lined up and clean with good form and no wind but soft. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had waves at maybe thigh high with clean conditions and very soft. North San Diego had waves at thigh to waist high and lined up and clean with decent form though pretty soft. Oahu's North Shore had waves in the 2-3 ft overhead range and lined up with good form and brisk offshore winds early. The South Shore had waves at waist high and lined up and clean but with some wind lump in the water. The East Shore was getting wrap around swell at waist high and clean with light south wind.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Friday (1/19) California was getting no swell and only some minimal windswell providing some barely rideable surf. Hawaii was getting swell from a gale that previously developed on the dateline Mon-Tues (1/16) briefly producing 35 ft seas falling southeast targeting Hawaii well. Another gale developed west of the dateline Wed-Fri (1/19) falling southeast producing up to 39 ft seas targeting the Islands well but from a very west direction and partially shadowed at some locations on Oahu. Residual energy is to push east north of Hawaii with seas at 28 ft falling to 20 ft Sat-Sun (1/21) possibly setting up small swell for the US West Coast. Another weak gael to follow on the exact same path Sun-Mon (1/22) with 23 ft seas targeting Hawaii and then tracking northeast Mon-Tues (1/23) with 30-33 ft seas targeting the US West Coast. Another gael is forecast building half way from Japan to the dateline Fri-Sat (1/27) producing 35 ft seas aimed east. The Inactive Phase of the MJO is destructively interfering with the El Nino base state for the time being somewhat dampening storm formation and limiting production mainly to the dateline and points west of there.

See all the details below...

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Friday (1/19) the jet was consolidated pushing east from Japan to a point 600 nmiles west of Central CA centered on the 30N latitude line with winds up to 180 kts forming a broad trough over the dateline offering support for gale development. Over the next 72 hours the pattern is to hold with winds building solidly to 180 kts from the dateline up and into Central CA by Sun (1/21) with the trough easing only slightly east to about 170W continuing to support gale development on the dateline while bringing weather into California. Beyond 72 hours starting Tues (1/23) more of the same is forecast but with winds building to 200 kts over Japan starting to push east with the trough northwest of Hawaii at 165W supporting gale formation while the jet continues pushing east into Southern CA. By Thurs (1/25) winds to build to 220 kts between the Japan and the dateline with a solid trough north of Hawaii offering good support for gale development with energy fading while lifting north over the Pacific Northwest. By Sat (1/27) the jet us to still be holding with winds 210 kts from Japan to a point north of Hawaii with a newly developing trough just west of the dateline offering good support for gale development with the jet splitting just 600 nmiles off the Central CA coast. A very energetic jetstream pattern is forecast.

Surface Analysis
On Friday (1/19) swell from a gale that developed while falling southeast from the dateline was fading in Hawaii.

Over the next 72 hours another gale was developing over the South Dateline region again targeting Hawaii well (see South Dateline Gale below).

Remnants of the West Dateline Gale (below) are to continue tracking east Fri PM (1/19) producing west winds at 35-40 kts just east of the dateline over a small area aimed east with seas 31 ft over a small area at 33.5N 173.75W aimed east. The gale is to track east on Sat AM (1/20) producing 30-35 kt west winds over a solid area north of Hawaii aimed east with seas 26-29 ft centered at 36.5N 168W aimed east. Fetch pushing east in the evening at 30-35 kts from the dateline to the Central Gulf targeting both Hawaii and the US West Coast with seas 20-23 ft over a large swath from the dateline to the Western Gulf and peaking at 28 ft at 39N 162W aimed east. On Sun AM (1/21) fetch is to be fading in the Western Gulf from 30 kts from the west with seas 23 ft at 37.5N 156.5W aimed east targeting California. Something to monitor.

North CA: Rough data suggest swell arrival on Wed (1/24) building to 6.4 ft @ 14 secs early (9.0 ft). Swell Direction: 274 degrees

Southern CA: Rough data suggest swell arrival on Wed (1/24) building to 2.9 ft @ 15 secs mid-AM (4.0-4.5 ft). Swell Direction: 282 degrees

On Sun AM (1/21) a Secondary Dateline Gale is to develop producing northwest winds on the South Dateline at 35 kts with seas 23 ft at 34N 170E aimed east-southeast at Hawaii. In the evening west winds to be 35 kts moving over the dateline targeting Hawaii well at 35 kts with seas 24 ft at 29N 175.5E aimed east-southeast. Fetch fading Mon AM (1/22) from 30-35 kts 500 nmiles northwest of Hawaii with seas fading from 20 ft at 28N 175W aimed east. This bears monitoring given the strength and position of the jet a week out. Much local swell possible for Hawaii.

Oahu: Rough data suggest swell arrival on Tues (1/23) building to 5.7 ft @ 13 secs mid-AM and holding (7.5 ft). Swell Fading on Wed (1/24) from 4.5 ft @ 12-13 secs (5.5 ft). Dribbles on Thurs (1/25) fading from 4.2 ft @ 11-12 secs (4.5 ft). Swell Direction: 308 degrees

And Remnants of the Secondary Dateline Gale (above) are to rebuilding while lifting northeast through the Gulf starting Mon PM (1/22) with west winds to 40 kts and seas building from 23 ft at 37.5N 157.5W aimed east. On Tues AM (1/23) west winds are to be 40-45 kts well west of North CA with seas 30 ft at 41N 149.5W aimed east. In the evening the gale is to be fading off Oregon with 40 kts west winds and seas 32 ft at 44N 142.5W aimed east. Fetch fading Wed AM (1/24) just off North Oregon from 35 kts with seas 26 ft at 45.75N 137.75W aimed east. Possible small swell for California. Something to monitor.

South Dateline Gale
On Sun PM (1/14) another gale was developing on the south dateline region with 40 kt northwest winds and seas building from 20 ft at 36N 169E aimed southeast. On Mon AM (1/15) the gale had 45 kt northwest winds and seas building fast to 29 ft over a small area at 38.25N 176.5E aimed southeast. Fetch was fading in coverage in the evening while falling southeast with northwest winds 45 kts and seas 35 ft at 35N 179.75E aimed southeast well at Hawaii. On Tues AM (1/16) fetch was fading from 30-35 kts 600 nmiles northwest of Hawaii with seas 29 ft at 31N 179.75W aimed southeast at Hawaii. Fetch dissipating in the evening but with 22 ft seas at 27N 172W aimed southeast and 25 kt west winds impacting Kauai with local windswell building. Something to monitor.

Oahu: Swell fading Fri (1/19) from 4.8 ft @ 12 secs early (5.5 ft). Swell Direction: 310-320 degrees

West Dateline Gale
Another gale developed west of the Dateline Tues PM (1/16) producing 45-50 kt north winds over a small area and seas building to 24 ft at 32.25N 159.25E aimed southeast. On Wed AM (1/17) the gale is to lift northeast building to storm status with 50 kt northwest winds and 39 ft seas over a small area at 34.25N 165E aimed southeast directly at Hawaii. In the evening fetch holding position building to 55 kts while building in coverage some with seas 39 ft at 36.75N 165.25E aimed southeast at Hawaii. Fetch was fading Thurs AM (1/18) from 45 kts from the northwest with seas 38 ft at 31.75N 166E aimed southeast. In the evening the gale was tracking east and fading with 35-40 kt west winds and seas 35 ft at 30.75N 172E aimed east. Fri AM (1/19) fetch was fading from 30-35 kts over a solid area straddling the dateline aimed east with seas 28-32 ft over a large area at 33N 178.5E aimed southeast. Based on latest data this swell would partially shadowed by Kauai from the North Shore of Oahu (swell from the core of the storm at 294.97-303.58 degrees).

Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Sat (1/20) building to 5.0 ft @ 16 secs late (8.0 ft). Swell stable and peaking on Sun (1/21) holding at 7.3 ft @ 16 secs (11.5 ft). Swell fading some on Mon (1/22) at 5.5 ft @ 14 secs early (7.5 ft). Swell being overtaken by new local swell beyond. Swell Direction: 294.97-303.58 degrees

North CA: Tiny swell possible starting Mon (1/22) at 2.0 ft @ 17 secs later (3.0 ft) and buried in windswell. Swell Direction: 280 degrees

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

Tropical Update
No tropical systems of interest were being tracked.

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at 35, 43, 29, and 4 inches respectively with most Fri-Mon (1/22).

Freeze Level for Tahoe Ski Resorts: Freeze Level 6,500 ft Fri (1/19) falling to 5,500-6,500 ft Sat- Fri (1/25) then building to 10,000 ft late on Sat (1/26) and 12,000 ft beyond. Not particularly cold.

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Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for Resort specific forecasts).

South Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
No swell of interest coming from the Southern Hemisphere was hitting Hawaii or California. Summer is over.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours yet a third local fetch of west winds are to build 600 nmiles northwest of Hawaii on Wed PM (1/24) at 30 kts starting to get traction with seas building. On Thurs AM (1/25) northwest winds are to be 30-35 kts with seas 19 ft at 32N 160W aimed southeast. Fetch easing east in the evening at 30-35 kts with seas 19-20 ft at 32N 155W aimed southeast. Weak west fetch and 20 ft seas to persist Fri (1/26) at 36N 152W targeting the US West Coast.

And on Thurs AM (1/25) a new broad gale is to start building off Japan producing a broad fetch of northwest winds at 35-40 kts starting to get traction with seas 25 at 35N 153E aimed southeast. In the evening northwest winds to be 35-40 kts over a broad area with seas 29 ft at 36.75N 155.5E. Fetch is to start building Fri AM (1/26) at 40-45 kts from the northwest with seas 31 ft over a solid area at 33.75N 164.25e aimed east. In the evening northwest winds to be 45 kts with seas 35 ft at 36.25N 165.25E half way to the dateline. This has potential beyond. Something worth monitoring.

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

MJO/ENSO Forecast

El Nino Past It's Peak
NINO3.4 SST Anomalies Still Reflect a Strong El Nino - But the End is Near
1 Kelvin Wave traversed the Pacific in Dec '22 with a 2nd in Jan-Feb and a 3rd and 4th in March-April, a 5th in May and a 6th in August. But after the last Active MJO in mid-to-late May (resulting in Kevin Wave #5), the MJO stalled. Finally the Active Phase restarted in later July Producing Kelvin Wave #6 which is erupting off Ecuador now. Another Active Phase of the MJO and 3 associated Westerly Wind Bursts developed early Oct thru later Nov producing Kelvin Waves #7 and #8 which are erupting off Ecuador now. And westerly anomalies in Dec tried to produce Kelvin Wave #9, but it has fizzled. All these Active MJO/Kevin Wave pairs have backfilled warm water off Ecuador and helping push the atmosphere deeper into El Nino. But that warm pool is now draining to the east and will last maybe another month (early Feb) with no additional Kelvin Waves expected from the west. The End of El Nino is near. But El Nino is finally evident in the atmosphere as evidenced by the jetstream and OLR.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023.

Rationale: A 3 year La Nina started fading in Jan 2023 and was gone by April. 6 Active MJO's produced 6 Kelvin Waves over early to mid 2023 with Kelvin Wave #7 in August building over the West Pacific and the 4th, 5th and 6th backed up off Ecuador now (10/20/23). The CFS model is predicting steady west anomalies from here forward and the leading edge of the low pressure bias moving over California now filling the Pacific. We are now under an El Nino status. We are moving into a period of enhanced storm production (starting late Sept 2023) and beyond, getting intense come late Fall and early Winter. This should result in an above normal level of swells, with swells being longer than normal duration from here forward as El Nino gets a stronger footprint on the atmosphere. The net result is a well above normal number of swells with above normal size and duration (i.e 15 significant class swells perhaps). Last year there were 0 and year before 5 or less.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (1/18) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the East equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and moderate to strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were modest east over the East equatorial Pacific and moderate east over the Central Pacific and light east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (1/19) East anomalies were moderate to strong filling the KWGA with no west anomalies left in the Pacific. The forecast indicates east anomalies are to be moving east filling the KWGA through 1/22 then moving east with modest west anomalies building in the west KWGA nearly reaching the dateline 1/29 while building to strong status while east anomalies hold east of the dateline through the end of the model run on 2/4. Certainly a massive strong Inactive MJO pulse traversing the KWGA, but with an equally strong Active Phase possibly to follow.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (1/19) Today in the far West Pacific the leading edge of the 30 deg isotherm was backtracking to 176W from 165W. The 29 degree isotherm was backtracking to 166W from 157W. The 28 deg isotherm line had raced east at 112W but today is back at 151W and is likely to retreat from there. The 24 degree isotherm extended the whole way across the Pacific and steady at 47m deep (25m earlier but at one point down to 65m). Anomaly wise, warm anomalies at +2 deg C start in the far West Pacific at 179E and are moving east fast. +3 deg anomalies have evaporated in that area and now start at 130W (previously 143W and 172W. Kelvin Wave #9 tried to develop but has now collapsed. +4 degs anomalies associated with Kelvin Wave #7/#8 start at +118W (previously 145W) pushing east in a continuous stream into Ecuador. The warm pool in the east is discharging fast to the surface while being backfilled by a little more warm water from what was to be Kelvin Wave #9. There's about 2 weeks of warm water backed up off the Ecuadorian Coast. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 1/13 is more optimistic indicating +1-2 degs anomalies start at 168E and over a large section of the subsurface equatorial Pacific (Kelvin Wave #9) and building while tracking east with 3 deg anomalies from Kevin Wave #7/#8 at 130W (previously 135W) and east of there erupting into Ecuador. A thin stream of +0.5 degree anomalies were falling off the Maritime Continent merging with the preexisting warm stream but cool water was building deep in the far West Pacific down 150m reaching east to 140W. No cool anomalies were indicated above 150m for the moment. El Nino is past it's peak. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (1/13) Sea heights were positive across the equatorial Pacific starting at 150W (previously 180W) at +0-5 cms extending east into Ecuador. +5 cm anomalies covered the area starting at 142W (previously 155W) to the Ecuadorian Coast (Kelvin Wave #7, #8 and #9). No +10 cm anomalies remain. No cool water was at depth yet but it appears the warm pool is starting to discharge quickly to the east. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (1/13) warm water is racing east with +0.5 degs anomalies starting at 150W (previously 160W) to Ecuador with a broad pocket of +1.0-1.5 deg anomalies between 130W (previously 148W) to Ecuador and moving east. The mature Phase of El Nino is past it's peak with cooler water developing over the West Pacific and warm water building in the east and pushing east with the final Kelvin Wave (#9) in flight. The demise of the warm pool in the west signals an eventual turn to La Nina (sometime next year).

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (1/18) The latest images depict a strong warm stream from Ecuador uniformly covering the area on the equator west to the dateline. Temps are fading slightly in it's core from 100W to 140W. Pockets of stronger warming are fading some between the Galapagos and 130W. Heat also extends north up to Southern Baja and south down into North Chile. There is a very clear El Nino signal with the classic El Nino triangle in-place and building towards a strong status.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (1/18): A mostly neutral trend was between the Galapagos out to 140W but with a thin warm stream on the equator between Ecuador to 100W. This is the last of the really warm water erupting. Warming is also occurring along Peru and Chile. In general a warming trend has been well entrenched over the East Pacific since Nov 1 2022.
Hi-res Overview: (1/18) Warmer than normal waters are filling the Equatorial Pacific from Ecuador to the dateline and strongest from 100W to 140W. The classic El Nino tongue of warm water is steady but not building over the equator west to the dateline. Everything is now looking like El Nino.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (1/19) (The official OISST temp record runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps are steady at +0.594 and have been toggling the past 2 weeks in this area with the high point at +0.618 and had been rising since 12/27.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (1/19) (OISST runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were falling some at +1.266 but in general have been steady through 1/12 in the +1.5 degs range, peaking at +1.695 on 1/3. We are likely past peak temps now. Temps have been in the +1.5 range since 11/19. Weekly OISST are at +1.9 week of 1/10 and 1/3. but were at +2.0 (12/27, 12/20 and 12/13) after being at +1.9 (12/6), +2.0 degs (11/29) and +2.1 (week of 11/22 - the highest so far), then +1.9 the week before and +1.8 degs (previous 2 weeks).

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps started slowly rising to -0.75 degs in Jan 2023 and up to -0.5 degs (above the La Nina threshold) on 2/12. Temps rose to +0.50 degs mid-May and were at +0.9 degs in mid-June, and +1.05 mid July reaching up to +1.30 degs early Aug, +1.6 degs in Sept holding in Oct and , +1.95 in Nov, +2.0 in Dec and +1.95 in Jan.
Forecast (1/19) - Temps are to fall to +1.5 degs in late-Jan. But this is nonsense. Temps are still near their all time high now. Temps are to be falling to +1.0 mid-Feb and steadily falling from there down to -1.7 degs in Oct 2024. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same thing but with temps falling to -1.4 degs in Oct. According to this version of the model we are at the peak of our strong El Nino.
IRI Consensus Plume: The December 20, 2023 Plume (all models) depicts temps are +1.67 degs today and it's the 8th month above the La Nina threshold. Temps to rise steadily from here forward up to +1.838 degrees in December (that's a 3 months running mean) then fading from there. The dynamic model suggest temps peaking at +1.900 in Dec/Jan/Feb before falling while the statistic models show +1.838 Dec/Jan/Feb before falling. This is higher than the previous months projections. The dynamic models are running a bit hotter than the statistic models and are likely more accurate. The CFS model is on the low end of the dynamic model range with 7 of 17 models above +2.0 degrees.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (1/19) the Daily Index was solidly positive at +20.45 peaking on 1/16 at +31.61 and has been rising the last 9 days. It had been effectively neutral 11/20/23 through 1/10/24. This is not consistent with El Nino. Previously it was negative for 29 days (7/14-8/11) with a peak down to -37.30 on 7/25 and negative previously to 7/12 with peaks down to -29.32 on 5/31, -64.63 on 5/24 and -31.31 on 5/12.
The 30 day average was rising at +2.87, Recent max lows were -10.43 on 11/16 and -15.70 on 9/23.
The 90 day average was rising at -2.30. Recent max lows were -11.14 on 11/17, -11.85 on 10/15.
El Nino is collapsing

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative ever since and the most negative in 2021-2023 since 2011, driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions. There's some sign of it rising in Nov/Dec 2023, but only slightly. In May-July 2021 it was the most negative its been in the -1.80 to -2.04 range since Sept 2012 (-2.99) and then fell to -3.16 in Oct 2021 (the lowest since July 1933) then settled at -2.72 in Nov and Dec 2021. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table