BUOY ROUNDUP
Thursday, January 25, 2024 :

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Thursday (1/25) in North and Central CA waves were 1-2 ft overhead and somewhat lined up and mushed and a little wonky but with clean surface conditions. Protected breaks were head high and lined up and pretty soft but clean with decent form. At Santa Cruz surf was head high on the sets and lined up but soft and mushed with some warble in the water but otherwise clean. In Southern California/Ventura waves were waist high and soft but somewhat lined up and clean with decent form when they came. Central Orange County had sets at head high and super lined up with decent form and clean with no wind but with some minimal warble in the water. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had waves at waist high plus and lined up and mushed with some warble in the water though surface conditions were clean. North San Diego had waves at chest to shoulder high and lined up and clean but soft with some warble in the water. Oahu's North Shore had waves in the 6-8 ft range Hawaiian and lined up with clean conditions but a little out of control. The South Shore had waves at waist high and clean and no wind but heavily warbled and soft. The East Shore was small with waves knee to thigh high and clean with modest southwest wind.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Thursday (1/25) California was getting leftover swell from a gale that developed west of the dateline Wed-Fri (1/19) falling southeast producing up to 39 ft seas targeting the Islands then tracked east on a path north of Hawaii with seas at 28 ft falling to 20 ft Sat-Sun (1/21). And new swell was poised from a gale that tracked northeast Mon-Wed (1/24) through the Gulf with 28 ft seas targeting the US West Coast. Another small gale developed 1,000 nmiles north of Hawaii Wed (1/24) generating 24 ft seas and is forecast lifting northeast through the Gulf Thurs-Fri (1/26) with 25-26 ft seas aimed mostly east at the US West Coast. Another small gale to develop in the same area Sat (1/27) while tracking northeast through the Gulf producing 25-28 ft seas aimed east. And yet a broader gale is forecast developing half way from Japan to the dateline and tracking east to a point north of Hawaii Sat-Mon (1/29) producing 28 ft seas aimed east at the Islands then lifting northeast through the Gulf into Wed (1/31) with seas in the 33 ft range aimed southeast targeting the US West Coast. More swell is likely for both Hawaii and the US West Coast. The jetstream continues strong as the Active Phase of the MJO builds. .

See all the details below...

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Thursday (1/25) the jet was consolidated pushing east from Japan with winds 210 kts reaching to the dateline and solid to 150W before splitting with a trough in the leading edge of the push over the Western Gulf offering good support for gale development. Over the next 72 hours the pattern is to hold with winds 190-210 kts from Japan to a point 900 nmiles north of Hawaii with the previous trough gone but a broad generalize trough over the dateline offering solid support for gale development just given the wind speeds alone. The split point is to move east to 135W or just 800 nmiles west of California. Beyond 72 hours starting Sun (1/29) winds in the jet are to be 190-200 kts over the same area above but with the leading edge of the jet now at 135W or 600 nmiles west of Central CA with the trough holding over the dateline. And the trough is to become more pronounced over the dateline Mon-Tues (1/30) offering good support for gale development and slowly pushing east to the Western Gulf on Thurs (2/1) with the tip of the jet starting to impact somewhere near Monterey Bay likely setting up weather there. A very energetic jetstream pattern is to continue fed by the Active Phase of the MJO and El Nino.

Surface Analysis
On Thursday (1/25) small swell from a previous dateline gale was impacting Southern CA (see Dateline - West Gulf Gale below). .

Over the next 72 hours remnants of a Secondary Dateline Gale are to rebuild setting up swell for California later in the work week (see Remnants of the Secondary Dateline Gale below). And Hawaii was starting to see swell from a new gale that developed over the Western Gulf (see West Gulf Gale below).

And a gale is forecast developing in the Western Gulf on Sun AM (1/28) with 30-35 kts west winds and seas building from 24 ft at 35N 152W aimed east. in the evening 35-40 kt west winds are to be lifting northeast off North CA with seas 25 ft at 38N 142W aimed east right at North and Central CA. On Mon AM (1/29) the gael is to be off of the Pacific Northwest with 35-40 kt west winds and seas 28 ft at 46N 135.75W off Washington and offering little for CA. The gale is to move over British Columbia after that. Possible small swell for CA to result.

North CA: Rough data suggests swell arrival on Tues (1/30).

Dateline - West Gulf Gale
Remnants of previous Dateline tracked east Fri PM (1/19) producing west winds at 35-40 kts a bit east of the dateline over a small area aimed east with seas 31 ft over a small area at 33N 174W aimed east. The gale tracked east on Sat AM (1/20) producing 30-35 kt west winds over a solid area 900 nmiles north of Hawaii aimed east with seas 26-28 ft centered at 36.25N 168W aimed east. Fetch pushed east in the evening at 30-35 kts from the dateline to the Central Gulf targeting both Hawaii and the US West Coast with seas 20-23 ft over a large swath from the dateline to the Western Gulf and peaking at 29 ft at 39N 162W aimed east. On Sun AM (1/21) fetch was fading in the Western Gulf from 30 kts from the west with seas fading from 25 ft at 40.5N 154.5W aimed east targeting California. Fetch and seas faded out from there.

Southern CA: Swell fading on Thurs (1/25) from 2.2 ft @ 13-14 secs early (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 284 degrees

Remnants of the Secondary Dateline Gale
Remnants of a previous Secondary Dateline Gale (above) were rebuilding while lifting northeast through the Gulf Mon PM (1/22) with west winds at 35-40 kts and seas building from 21 ft at 32.5N 162W aimed east. On Tues AM (1/23) west winds were 35-40 kts in the Central Gulf well west of North CA with seas building to 25 ft at 40N 151.75W aimed east. In the evening the gale is to be peaking off Oregon with 40-45 kts west winds and seas 30 ft at 43.5N 146W aimed east. Fetch is to be fading while easing east off North Oregon on Wed AM (1/24) with west wind fading from 35-40 kts with seas 29 ft at 44N 138.5W aimed east. The gale is to continue fading off Oregon in the evening with west winds 30 kts and seas 24 ft at 44N 133.5W aimed east. Possible small swell for California.

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Thurs AM (1/25) building to 7.8 ft @ 14-15 secs mid-day (11.0 ft). Swell fading on Fri (1/26) from 5.6 ft @ 12-13 secs early (7.0 ft). Swell Direction: 288 moving to 300 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival before sunrise on Fri (1/26) and fading from 3.0 ft @ 13-14 secs early (4.0 ft). Swell fading on Sat (1/27) from 2.0 ft @ 12-13 secs (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 292-304 degrees

West Gulf Gale
And a new gale developed 750 nmiles north of Hawaii Wed AM (1/24) producing west winds at 30-35 kts and seas 24 ft over a tiny area at 34N 163W aimed east. In the evening the gale lifted north with 35-40 kt northwest winds over a moderate area with 23 ft seas at 38N 160W aimed east. On Thurs AM (1/25) the gale was stationary with west winds at 35-40 kts in the Gulf and seas 23 ft at 38.5N 158W aimed east. The gale is to be fading in the evening while lifting slowly north with 35 kt west winds and seas 25 ft at 39.5N 154.75W aimed east. On Fri AM (1/26) the gale is to be fading with 30-35 kt west winds and seas fading from 25 ft at 43.25N 155W aimed east. The gale to dissipate from there. Possible sideband swell for Hawaii and more direct swell for the US West Coast.

Oahu: Expect swell arrival Thurs AM (1/25) building to 6.6 ft @ 12-13 secs mid-AM (8 ft). Swell fading on Fri AM (1/26) from 5.3 ft @ 11-12 secs early (6.0 ft). Dribbles on Sat (1/27) fading from 4.5 ft @ 11 secs (4.5 ft). Swell Direction: 305 moving to 315 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Sun (1/28) building to 5.7 ft @ 14 secs early (8.0 ft). Swell fading Mon (1/29) from 4.8 ft @ 12-13 secs (5.5 ft). Swell Direction: 275 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival later on Sun (1/28) building to 3.4 ft @ 14 secs later (4.5 ft). Swell fading on Mon (1/29) from 2.9 ft @ 13 secs (3.5 ft). Swell Direction: 280 degrees

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

Tropical Update
No tropical systems of interest were being tracked.

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at 18, 22, 24, and 4 inches respectively with all on Thurs-Fri (2/2).

Freeze Level for Tahoe Ski Resorts: Freeze Level building to 9,000 ft late on Sat (1/27) holding then building to 11,000 ft on Sun (1/28) possibly falling to 1.500 ft on (2/3).

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Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for Resort specific forecasts).

South Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
No swell of interest coming from the Southern Hemisphere was hitting Hawaii or California. Summer is over.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours starting Sat AM (1/27) a new gale is to start building off Japan producing a fetch of northwest winds at 35 kts starting to get traction with seas 23 at 36.5N 156.25E aimed southeast. In the evening northwest winds to be 35 kts over a broader area with seas 23 ft at 34N 162.5E. Fetch is to build in coverage some Sun AM (1/28) at 35+ kts from the west just west of the dateline with seas 27 ft over a solid area at 32N 170E aimed east. In the evening northwest winds to be 35 kts on the dateline with seas 28 ft at 31N 179.5W aimed east. On Mon AM (1/29) the gale is to build in coverage while pushing east to a point 750 nmiles north of Hawaii with west winds 35 kts and seas 28 ft at 30.5N 171.5W aimed east. In the evening fetch building while the gale lifts northeast into the Gulf with west winds 40-45 kts and seas 27 ft at 30N 163W aimed east. On Tues AM (1/30) northwest winds to be 35-40 kts in the Gulf with seas 31 ft at 39.75N 146W aimed east. Fetch is to be off British Columbia from the northwest at 45 kts in the evening with seas 34 ft at 42.75N 140W aimed southeast. On Wed AM (1/31) the gale is to be in the Northeast Gulf with northwest winds at 50 kts and seas 35 ft at 50.75N 144W aimed southeast. Something worth monitoring.

More likely to follow.

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

MJO/ENSO Forecast

El Nino Past It's Peak
NINO3.4 SST Anomalies Still Reflect a Strong El Nino - But the End is Near
1 Kelvin Wave traversed the Pacific in Dec '22 with a 2nd in Jan-Feb and a 3rd and 4th in March-April, a 5th in May and a 6th in August. But after the last Active MJO in mid-to-late May (resulting in Kevin Wave #5), the MJO stalled. Finally the Active Phase restarted in later July Producing Kelvin Wave #6 which is erupting off Ecuador now. Another Active Phase of the MJO and 3 associated Westerly Wind Bursts developed early Oct thru later Nov producing Kelvin Waves #7 and #8 which are erupting off Ecuador now. And westerly anomalies in Dec tried to produce Kelvin Wave #9, but it has fizzled. All these Active MJO/Kevin Wave pairs have backfilled warm water off Ecuador and helping push the atmosphere deeper into El Nino. But that warm pool is now draining to the east and will last maybe another month (early Feb) with no additional Kelvin Waves expected from the west. The End of El Nino is near. But El Nino is finally evident in the atmosphere as evidenced by the jetstream and OLR.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023.

Rationale: A 3 year La Nina started fading in Jan 2023 and was gone by April. 6 Active MJO's produced 6 Kelvin Waves over early to mid 2023 with Kelvin Wave #7 in August building over the West Pacific and the 4th, 5th and 6th backed up off Ecuador now (10/20/23). The CFS model is predicting steady west anomalies from here forward and the leading edge of the low pressure bias moving over California now filling the Pacific. We are now under an El Nino status. We are moving into a period of enhanced storm production (starting late Sept 2023) and beyond, getting intense come late Fall and early Winter. This should result in an above normal level of swells, with swells being longer than normal duration from here forward as El Nino gets a stronger footprint on the atmosphere. The net result is a well above normal number of swells with above normal size and duration (i.e 15 significant class swells perhaps). Last year there were 0 and year before 5 or less.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (1/24) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the East equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were moderate east over the East equatorial Pacific and moderate east over the Central Pacific and light east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (1/25) West anomalies were modest filling the KWGA. East anomalies were weak and east of the KWGA. The forecast indicates modest west anomalies are to be holding over KWGA then building to strong status 2/2 holding through the end of the model run on 2/10.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (1/25) Today in the far West Pacific the leading edge of the 30 deg isotherm was steady at 180W previously moving from 165W. The 29 degree isotherm was backtracking to 167W from 157W. The 28 deg isotherm line had raced east at 112W but today is back at 148W and is likely to retreat from there. The 24 degree isotherm extended the whole way across the Pacific and steady at 47m deep (25m earlier but at one point down to 65m). Anomaly wise, warm anomalies at +2 deg C start in the West Pacific at 163W and are moving east fast. +3 deg anomalies have evaporated in that area and now start at 139W (previously 143W and 172W). +4 degs anomalies associated with Kelvin Wave #7/#8 start at +116W (previously 145W) pushing east in a continuous stream into Ecuador. The warm pool in the east is discharging fast to the surface with no backfilling occurring. There's about 2-3 weeks of warm water backed up off the Ecuadorian Coast. Colder water extends east now to 105W undercutting the warm pool. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 1/18 is more optimistic indicating +1-2 degs anomalies start at 168E and over a large section of the subsurface equatorial Pacific (Kelvin Wave #9) and building while tracking east with 3 deg anomalies from Kevin Wave #7/#8 at 130W (previously 135W) and east of there erupting into Ecuador. A thin stream of +0.5 degree anomalies were falling off the Maritime Continent merging with the preexisting warm stream but cool water was building deep in the far West Pacific down 150m reaching east to 140W. No cool anomalies were indicated above 150m for the moment. El Nino is past it's peak. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (1/18) Sea heights were positive across the East Equatorial Pacific starting at 150W (previously 180W) at +0-5 cms extending east into Ecuador. +5 cm anomalies covered the area starting at 140W (previously 155W) to the Ecuadorian Coast (Kelvin Wave #7, #8 and #9). No +10 cm anomalies remain. No cool water was at depth yet but it appears the warm pool is starting to discharge quickly to the east. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (1/18) warm water is racing east with +0.5 degs anomalies starting at 142W (previously 160W) to Ecuador with a broad pocket of +1.0 deg anomalies starting at 120W (previously 148W) to Ecuador and moving east. The mature Phase of El Nino is past it's peak with cooler water developing over the West Pacific and warm water building in the east and pushing east reaching to 173W. The demise of the warm pool in the west signals an eventual turn to La Nina (sometime in 2024).

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (1/24) The latest images depict a strong warm stream from Ecuador uniformly covering the area on the equator west to the dateline. Temps are fading slightly in it's core from 100W to 140W. Pockets of stronger warming are gone between Galapagos and 130W. Heat also extends north up to Southern Baja and south down into North Chile. There is a very clear El Nino signal with the classic El Nino triangle in-place and building towards a strong status.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (1/24): A mostly neutral trend was between the Galapagos out to 140W but with a thin stream of weak cooling on the equator between the Galapagos to 100W. Warming is also occurring along Peru and Chile. In general a warming trend has been well entrenched over the East Pacific since Nov 1 2022.
Hi-res Overview: (1/24) Warmer than normal waters are filling the Equatorial Pacific from Ecuador to the dateline and strongest from 100W to 140W. The classic El Nino tongue of warm water is steady but not building over the equator west to the dateline. Everything is now looking like El Nino.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (1/25) (The official OISST temp record runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps are steady at +0.613 and have been toggling the past 2 weeks in this area with the high point at +0.618 and previously had been rising since 12/27.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (1/25) (OISST runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were falling some at +1.116, Previously temps had been steady 11/19 through 1/12 in the +1.5 degs range, peaking at +1.695 on 1/3. We are past peak temps now. Temps have been in the +1.5 range since 11/19. Weekly OISST are at +1.7 week of 1/17 and were +1.9 degs 1/10 and 1/3. but were at +2.0 (12/27, 12/20 and 12/13) after being at +1.9 (12/6), +2.0 degs (11/29) and +2.1 (week of 11/22 - the highest so far), then +1.9 the week before and +1.8 degs (previous 2 weeks).

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps started slowly rising to -0.75 degs in Jan 2023 and up to -0.5 degs (above the La Nina threshold) on 2/12. Temps rose to +0.50 degs mid-May and were at +0.9 degs in mid-June, and +1.05 mid July reaching up to +1.30 degs early Aug, +1.6 degs in Sept holding in Oct and , +1.95 in Nov, +2.0 in Dec and +1.95 in Jan.
Forecast (1/24) - Temps are to fall to +1.5 degs in late-Jan. But this is nonsense. Temps are still near their all time high now. Temps are to be falling to +1.0 mid-Feb and steadily falling from there down to -1.9 degs in Oct 2024. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same thing but with temps falling to -1.45 degs in Oct. According to this version of the model we are at the peak of our strong El Nino.
IRI Consensus Plume: The January 20, 2024 Plume (all models) depicts temps are +1.53 degs today and it's the 9th month above the La Nina threshold. Temps to fall steadily from here forward down to +1.149 in Feb (that's a 3 months running mean) then fading from there down to -0.783 in Sept. The Dynamic model suggest temps falling to -0.827 in Sept and the Statistic down to -0.783.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (1/25) the Daily Index was negative -7.72 today and has been negative the last 3 days but had been positive and up to +31.61 on 1/6 and had been rising the last 10 days. It had been effectively neutral 11/20/23 through 1/10/24. This is not consistent with El Nino. Previously it was negative for 29 days (7/14-8/11) with a peak down to -37.30 on 7/25 and negative previously to 7/12 with peaks down to -29.32 on 5/31, -64.63 on 5/24 and -31.31 on 5/12.
The 30 day average was steady at +7.07, Recent max lows were -10.43 on 11/16 and -15.70 on 9/23.
The 90 day average was steady at -1.81. Recent max lows were -11.14 on 11/17, -11.85 on 10/15.
El Nino is collapsing

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative ever since and the most negative in 2021-2023 since 2011, driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions. There's some sign of it rising in Nov/Dec 2023, but only slightly. In May-July 2021 it was the most negative its been in the -1.80 to -2.04 range since Sept 2012 (-2.99) and then fell to -3.16 in Oct 2021 (the lowest since July 1933) then settled at -2.72 in Nov and Dec 2021. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table