Pacific Storm & Surf Forecast (Stormsurf)

Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor)/Buoy 239 (Lanai)/Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt): Seas were 2.7 ft @ 11.8 secs with swell 1.9 ft @ 11.3 secs from 271 degrees. Water temp 77.2 degs (Barbers Pt), NA (Lani 239), 76.5 (Pearl Harbor 233).
Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 2.8 ft @ 11.8 secs with swell 1.7 ft @ 11.6 secs from 302 degrees. Water temp 76.8 degs.
Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 3.3 ft @ 12.8 secs with swell 2.2 ft @ 12.7 secs from 224 degrees. Wind northeast at 8-10 kts. Water temperature 58.1 degs, 58.8 (Topanga 103), 58.8 degs (Long Beach 215), 59.9 (Del Mar 153), 58.8 (Imperial Beach 155). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 3.3 ft @ 14.1 secs from 286 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.4 ft @ 14.1 secs from 259 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.4 ft @ 13.0 secs from 259 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 3.2 ft @ 13.2 secs from 269 degrees. Water temp 60.4 degs.
Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes - Returned to Service!): Seas were 4.3 ft @ 13.3 secs with swell 2.7 ft @ 13.1 secs from 266 degrees. Wind at the buoy (012) was northeast at 6 kts. Water temp 54.9 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 53.6 (46026), 53.6 degs (SF Bar 142), and 55.2 (Santa Cruz 254).

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Friday (1/28) North and Central CA had set waves at head high and lined up and clean with good form and light offshore winds. Protected breaks were waist high and lined up and clean and somewhat closed out. At Santa Cruz surf was chest to shoulder high and lined up and real clean but soft. In Southern California/Ventura waves were waist high and chopped from strong southerly wind. Central Orange County had sets at waist high and lined up with good form and fairly glassy conditions with light northeast winds. South Orange County's best summertime breaks were waist high or so and lined up with good form and glassy conditions. North San Diego had sets at thigh to waist high and lined up and clean. Hawaii's North Shore was getting smaller waves at head high and lined up and clean with good form. The South Shore was thigh to waist high and clean but weak. The East Shore was flat and clean with no real trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Friday (1/28) Hawaii and California were getting leftover fading remnants swell from previous gales near the dateline. Beyond small swell from a gale previously west of the North Dateline region Tues-Wed (1/26) producing 33 ft seas is expected for Hawaii over the weekend and California early in the workweek. After that 3 small and weak generic systems are forecast for the North Dateline region with the first on Sat-Sun (1/30) with 34 ft seas aimed east, a second on Mon-Tues (2/1) with up to 38 ft seas aimed east and a third on Thurs (2/3) with 38 ft seas aimed east are possible. But all are to be small and quickly tracking hard northeast.

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

Overview
Jetstream
On Friday (1/28) the jet was consolidated pushing firmly east off Japan on the 35N latitude line running east to about the dateline with winds 200 kts supporting a shallow trough just west of the dateline offering some support for gale development. East of there the jet split at 170W with the northern branch pushing northeast but not reaching the mainland supporting nothing but high pressure east of the split point. Over the next 72 hours energy levels in the jet are to build to nearly 200 kts between Japan and the dateline through Mon (1/31) but with no clearly defined troughs through some degree of support for gale development is likely given the solid wind speeds. The split point is to drift east to 160W. Beyond 72 hours starting Tues (2/1) winds to hold between Japan and the dateline at 200 kts with the split point steady at 160W but with no clearly defined troughs evolving offering some support for gale development. But high pressure is to hold east of the split point through Fri (2/4).

Surface Analysis
On Friday (1/28) residual swell from previous gales is fading over Hawaii and California. Also small swell from a gael previously over the North Dateline region is pushing southeast (see Another North Dateline Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours starting Sat PM (1/29) a small gale is forecast developing just east of the dateline producing 40-45 kts west winds and seas building from 28 ft over a tiny area at 39N 169W aimed east. On Sun AM (1/30) the gale is to be lifting north with 45 kt northwest winds and seas building to 26-34 ft at 45N 166.5W aimed east. Residual secondary fetch fading on the evening from 35 kts from the northwest producing 26 ft seas at 37N 172W aimed southeast. Fetch to be gone Mon AM (1/31) with seas fading from 23 ft at 40N 167W aimed east. Something to monitor.

Also on Mon AM (1/31) a tiny storm is forecast developing just west of the dateline producing 45-50 kts west winds over a small footprint generating 23 ft seas at 41N 168E aimed east. In the evening 55 kt west winds are to push due east approaching the dateline with 41 ft seas at 41.25N 173E aimed east. On Tues AM (2/1) the gael is to lift northeast producing 45 kt west winds and seas 37 ft at 42.5N 179.75W aimed east. In the evening residual fetch is to be raising northeast at 30-35 kts with seas fading from 32 ft at 47.75N 175.5W aimed east. Something to monitor.

Another North Dateline Gale
On Tues AM (1/25) another small gale started building just west of the dateline with 45 kt northwest winds and seas building from 22 ft at 39.75N 167.5E aimed east. In the evening 50 kt northwest winds are to be just west of the dateline with 31 ft seas over a small area at 41.5N 170.5E aimed east. On Wed AM (1/26) the gale was lifting north while fading with 45 kt west winds over the North Dateline region with 31 ft seas at 43.75N 168.75E aimed east. This system was fading in the evening with 40-45 kt northwest winds and seas 28 ft at 44N 175E aimed east. Fetch was fading Thurs AM (1/27) from 30-35 kts with seas fading from 24 ft at 45N 173E aimed southeast. The gale is to be gone after that. Something to monitor.

Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Sat (1/29) building to 3.6 ft @ 15 secs mid-day (5.0 ft). Swell fading on Sun (1/30) from 3.8 ft @ 14 secs (5.0 ft) early. Residuals on Mon (1/31) from 2.8 ft @ 13-14 secs (3.5-4.0 ft). Swell Direction: 315 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Mon (1/31) building to 2.5 ft @ 14-15 secs later (3.5 ft). Swell fading on Tues (2/1) from 2.5 ft @ 13-14 secs early (3.5 ft). Swell Direction: 294 degrees

Sat (1/29) light winds are forecast early for North and Central CA turning northwest 10 kts for both in the afternoon.
Sun (1/30) northwest winds are forecast at 10 kts for North CA early and 10-15 kts for Central CA holding in the afternoon. Rain for Cape Mendocino overnight.
Mon (1/31) high pressure to start building in the Gulf with northwest winds 10-15 kts for North CA early and 5-10 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds are forecast at 15-20 kts for Cape Mendocino and 10-15 kts down to the Golden Gate and 10 kts for Central CA. Maybe light rain for Cape Mendocino early.
Tues (2/1) high pressure rules supreme with northwest winds 20-25 kts for all of North CA and 10-15 kts for Central CA early building to 30-35 kts for North CA in the afternoon and 20+ kts for Central CA. Light rain for North CA early. Light snow falling south over the Sierra starting before sunrise and through the day.
Wed (2/2) north winds are forecast at 25-30 kts for North CA early and 25 kts off the Central CA coast (10-15 kts nearshore). Winds 25 kts for North CA in the afternoon and 15-20 kts for Central CA.
Thurs (2/3) a summer time pressure gradient is to be fading with north winds 20-25 kts for Pt Arena northward early and 10 kts south of there holding all day.
Fri (2/4) north winds to be 20 kts from Pt Arena northward and north-northeast 10 kts south of there holding all day.

Freezing level steadily at 9,000 ft building to 10,000 ft on through 1/30, then falling to the 6,500 ft range Feb 1-2 then rising to 10,000 ft on 2/4 and unchanged beyond.

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level (more here - scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Overview
Surface Analysis
No swell producing fetch has occurred of is forecast.

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

Beyond 72 hours starting Wed PM (2/2) another small gael is forecast building just west of the dateline with 45+ kt west winds over a small area and seas building from 31 ft at 38N 176E aimed east. the gale is to race east-northeast on Thurs AM (2/3) with 55 kt west winds and seas 33 ft at 40N 179.5W aimed east. In the evening the gale is lift northeast with 50 kt west winds and seas 39 ft at 44.25W 174.5W aimed east. On Fri AM 92/4) the gale is to fade over the North Dateline region with 35K west winds and seas fading from 32 ft at 49N 172W aimed northeast.

La Nina Evaporating - Kelvin Wave Pushing East
Summary - Cool subsurface water volume peaked under the equatorial Pacific on 10/15/21, beating last years volume, but is quickly fading at the surface in the East Equatorial Pacific. A stronger than expected Active Phase of the MJO in Dec has produced a Kelvin Wave that is plodding east through the Central Pacific. Water temps appear to be warming over the entire East Pacific, though still in La nina territory for the moment. A return to a more normal cadence of Active and Inactive MJO phases is starting now. It seems the the peak of La Nina is behind us. But the atmosphere will take much time to respond.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. A slow dissolving of La Nina started in March 2021 with 2 Kelvin Waves sweeping east and arriving over the Galapagos in June. Weak warming set up over the equator with no cool waters present. NOAA declared La Nina dead. But cold water returned in July 2021 and a second pulse of La Nina developed and is continuing today, though possibly weaker with its foundation appearing to be in decline.

Rationale: It was assumed that the moderate La Nina from the Winter of 2020/2021 was on the wane and that a return to neutral ENSO state would set up over the Pacific Basin through the summer of 2021. But La Nina made a strong return by the end of Sept much like what the CFS model suggested would happen. A full double dip La Nina pattern took hold as we moved into November with this second La Nina dip being nearly as strong as the previous one. But a quick fade is forecast as we move into late December with the CFS predicting a return to a neutral wind anomaly pattern at that time and the low pressure bias making headway in to the KWGA in early Jan. Still it will take some time for the atmosphere to fully respond, resulting in a less than normal swell production forecast especially for Fall into early Winter. But by later in Feb 2022 perhaps a return to a more normal pattern might take hold. But it will be too little too late. As a result a significantly reduced number of storm days and storm intensity is expected Oct-Feb 2022, resulting in a below normal level of swells, with swell being below normal duration and period. But by March 2022, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start improving as La Nina fades out. The status of the PDO is not known, though it appears to be returning to at least a neutral state, rather than the warm phase as previously projected thereby having no significant positive or negative effect on the long term outlook.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (1/27) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were light east over the East equatorial Pacific and neutral over the Central Pacific and light east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (1/28) modest east anomalies were filling the KWGA. The 7 day forecast calls for east anomalies building in coverage and strength to near strong status on 1/29 holding through the end of the model run on 2/4.

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (1/27) No MJO signal was indicated today. The statistical model suggests the Inactive MJO developing on day 5 of the model run building some on day 10 and holding over the KWGA steady on day 15. The dynamic model projects much the same thing but with the Inactive Phase stronger on the dateline on day 10 then fading on day 15 with the Active Phase moving from the Maritime Continent in the the far West Pacific.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (1/28) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was exceedingly weak over the Indian Ocean and is forecast tracking east to the East Maritime Continent on day 15 of the model run and very weak. The dynamic model suggests the same but with the Active Phase modestly strong in the same position on day 15 of the model run.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (1/28) A very weak Active MJO signal (wet air) was depicted over the Central equatorial Pacific today. The forecast indicates the Active Phase (wet air) steadily moving east tracking into Central America 2/22. The Inactive Phase (dry air) is to be building over the West Pacific in earnest starting 2/7 at modest strength filling the KWGA then tracking east moving to the East Pacific at the end of the model run on 3/9. A new very weak Active Phase (wet air) is forecast starting to build over the far West Pacific at that time.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (1/27) No MJOP signal was depicted today with modest east anomalies filling the KWGA. The forecast has east anomalies building in coverage and strength filling the KWGA into 2/9, the a solid Inactive Signal develops filling the KWGA through the end of the model run on 2/24 with moderate to strong east anomalies in control.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (1/28 - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day): Today the Inactive Phase was peaking over the KWGA today though not particularly strong or impactful with weak east anomalies starting to fill the KWGA. Weak to modest east anomalies are to build over the KWGA holding through 3/2 when the Inactive Phase dissipates. On 2/4 a coherent Active Phase of the MJO is to start pushing east over the western KWGA filling it by 2/28 but west anomalies are to not move east from the Maritime Continent until 2/26. After that the Active Phase is to hold over the KWGA through 3/25 with moderate west anomalies filling the KWGA. The Inactive Phase is to develop 3/17 through the end of the model run on 4/27 but with weak west anomalies in control. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias with 1 contour line was centered a bit east of the dateline with its western perimeter at 170E today moving to the dateline by 3/17 and slowly easing east from there. A broad single contour low pressure bias is established centered over the Maritime Continent at 100E with it's leading edge at 135E and barely in the KWGA but is forecast starting to move east further into the KWGA to 170E on 3/9 filling 75% of the KWGA and building further east quicker to nearly the dateline at the end of the model run on 4/27. Today a solid east anomaly pattern that had been in control of KWGA since early July is gone. A return to a more normal MJO alternating pattern is developing. This should signal the demise of La Nina. That said, there is only one more Active MJO forecast for this winter, in the late Feb/early March timeframe.

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (1/28) Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was steady at 173E. The 28 deg isotherm line was steady at 176W. The 24 deg isotherm was easing east to 131W. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies +3 deg C were building with their leading edge moving east to about 132W and showing signs of drifting east more. All sensors are down at 140W so there is some doubt concerning the above statement but it seems likely a Kelvin Wave has developed and is pushing east. Cool anomalies were fading at -1 degs C 75 meters down at 105W and tracking east. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 1/23 indicates a Kelvin Wave pushing east with 4-5 degs warm anomalies with its eastern edge at 125W with cool anomalies at -5 degs C 25 meters down and pushing to the surface at 115W. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (1/23) Sea heights were negative over the East equatorial Pacific from Ecuador to 125W at -5 to -10 cms and losing coverage. Positive anomalies were creeping east from 178E previously to 135W today. It appears a Kelvin Wave is pushing east. La Nina is trying to hold on but appears to be getting significantly challenged by warmer water encroaching from the west. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram La Nina subsurface cold temperatures peaked in coverage in mid-Oct, far broader than last year (-2.5 degs C), but as of 1/23 that coverage is gone with a second cold pulse quickly tracking east with its core at 105W and collapsing. Warm water was fast moving east with it's leading edge today at 128W. It appears a Kelvin Wave is moving east, the first since last summer likely signaling the demise of La Nina.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (1/27) The latest images depict a broad stream of cool water on the equator extending from just off Ecuador west peaking between the Galapagos and 120W then weaker west of there to the dateline. but the core of this pool is rapidly fading in intensity and coverage even from a few day ago. The classic La Nina pattern appears to be in retreat. There were signs of warming along the coasts of Chile and Peru. An area of warm water was holding just north of the equator across the entire North Pacific. Overall this indicates the demise of La Nina.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (1/27): Temps were warming solidly from Ecuador west on the equator to 160W. No cooling was evident.
Hi-res Overview: (1/27) The magnitude of the core of the La nina cool pool appears to be fading quickly. But weaker cool waters were west of there to the dateline but fading in coverage in the west. Cooler than normal waters were also south of that line down to 20S though losing coverage and intensity. Warmer than normal waters were aligned from 3N and above over the entire North Pacific. La Nina is solid but appears to be fading focused over the equatorial East Pacific.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (1/28) Today's temps were fading slightly at -1.267 after rising to -0.650 degs on 1/9 and that after being down at -1.871 on 1/3 and -1.954 on 12/18, the lowest this year so far. Previously temps rose to -1.432 on 11/29 and that after dropping on 11/24 at -1.700, the lowest in months after previously toggling steady at about -0.6 degs from mid Aug to Oct 6, then falling from there. Before that temps were toggling around neutral 6/13-8/5 except for one dip to -0.411 on 7/8. Prior to that temps peaked on 3/16 when they briefly hit +0.714 degs. Last year temps bottomed out at -2.138 on 8/13/20. The longterm trend has been steadily downward.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (1/28) Today's temps were rising more to -0.580 after reaching a peak low of -1.096 on 1/3 beating the previous low of -1.080 on 11/2, the lowest in a year. Prior to that temps had been in a freefall starting from the -0.175 range in early Sept. Before that temps peaked up at 7/1 +0.332, the highest in a year. Temps previously had been steady near -0.222 since early March. Temps bottomed out at -1.654 on 11/3/2020.

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (1/28) - Temps rose in early Nov 2020 after bottoming out at -1.25 degs, up to -0.01 degs in mid-June 2021 then fading to -0.3 degs through Aug down to -1.05 degs in mid-Nov and holding. The forecast indicates temps slowly toggling upwards to -0.70 degs in Feb then falling to -1.05 degs in May only to resettle at -0.80 degs in the July and beyond. This model suggests we are at or almost past the peak of La Nina temperatures this Winter. But there is no indication that El Nino will develop and if anything we'll fall into a weak steady state La Nina beyond. The PDF Corrected forecast suggests temps rising in July to -0.70 degs and holding in that range beyond. At this point it is safe to say peak La Nina has been reached but any sort of a wholesale recovery to even neutral seems ambiguous for now.
IRI Consensus Plume: The Jan 13, 2022 Plume depicts temps are -0.960 degs today and have bottomed out. They are to warm to -0.586 degrees in March, then rising to -0.011 degs in July and neutral after that. A return to ENSO neutral is expected this summer.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - this is a lagging indicator):
Today (1/28) the daily index was positive at +23.65 after peaking at +46.71 on 12/26. The trend of late has been more towards negative readings lately after previously being towards positive readings with previous notable peaks at +30.98 on 11/26, +36.90 on 9/28, +27.75 on 9/13 and +37.86 on 7/15.
The 30 day average was falling at +1.21 after peaking at +13.07 on 12/31 (the highest in a year) after previously falling to +6.06 on 11/6 after peaking at +11.58 on 10/22. Before that it fell to -3.36 on 6/22, the lowest in a year. It peaked at +19.51 on 1/14.
The 90 day average was rising at +8.43 today after previously peaking at +10.90 on 12/26, falling to +7.10 on 11/1. It previously peaking on 9/21 at +9.80 after falling to it's lowest point in a year on 6/9 at +1.06. The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 on 2/23 (clearly indicative of La Nina then). This index is a lagging indicator but suggest La Nina is returning.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative ever since, driven by recent La Nina conditions. In May-July 2021 it was the most negative its been in the -1.80 to -2.04 range since Sept 2012 (-2.99) and then fell to -3.16 in Oct 2021 (the lowest since July 1933) then settled at -2.72 in Nov and Dec 2021. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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