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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Monday, January 29, 2024 8:09 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
3.3 - California & 3.3 - Hawaii
Using the 'Winter' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    
Issued for Week of Monday 1/29 thru Sun 2/4
Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

A Very Active Pattern Starts
Jetstream to Continue Strong

BUOY ROUNDUP
Monday, January 29, 2024 :

  • Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt): Seas were 7.2 ft @ 15.4 secs with swell 3.0 ft @ 15.0 secs from 294 degrees. Water temp 77.0 (Barbers Pt), 76.8 (Pearl Harbor 233), NA (Lani 239).
  • Buoy 187 (Pauwela): Seas were 7.3 ft @ 12.5 secs with swell 5.0 ft @ 12.9 secs from 321 degrees. Water temp 77.0 degs
  • Buoy 106 (Waimea)/Buoy 202 (Hanalei): Seas were 9.3 ft @ 11.1 secs with swell 6.2 ft @ 11.8 secs from 311 degrees. Water temp 75.9 degs
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 5.2 ft @ 13.7 secs with swell 4.1 ft @ 12.9 secs from 248 degrees. Wind northwest at 2-4 kts. Water temperature 61.5 degs, 57.9 (Harvest 071), 60.1 (Topanga 103), 59.9 (Long Beach 215), 60.4 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 59.4 (Del Mar 153), 60.6 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 5.9 ft @ 13.2 secs from 280 degrees. At E. Santa Barbara (46053) swell was 5.2 ft @ 13.0 secs from 277 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 2.8 ft @ 13.1 secs from 266 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 3.0 ft @ 13.4 secs from 264 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 4.3 ft @ 13.6 secs from 266 degrees. Water temperature was 59.5 degrees (Imperial Beach).
  • Buoy 029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 7.3 ft @ 11.8 secs with swell 5.4 ft @ 12.6 secs from 275 degrees. Wind east at 12-16 kts (46026) and south-southeast at 5-6 kts (1801589). Water temp NA (Bodega Bay 46013), 55.4 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 56.7 (San Francisco 46026), 55.6 (SF Bar 142), 57.4 (1801589) and 58.6 (Monterey Bay 46042).

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Monday (1/29) in North and Central CA waves were up to head 2-3 ft overhead and lined up with good form and clean with light offshore wind but soft early. Protected breaks were head high and lined up with decent form and clean but soft. At Santa Cruz surf was head high on the sets and clean and lined up but again soft. In Southern California/Ventura waves were chest to head high and lined up with good form and super clean when they came but soft. Central Orange County had sets at head high and lined up with decent form and clean and a little soft. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had waves at waist high and lined up with good form and super clean. North San Diego had waves to head high with sets 1-2 ft overhead and clean and lined up with good form though a little soft. Oahu's North Shore had waves in the 2-3 ft overhead range and lined up but pretty trashed from southwest wind. The South Shore had waves at chest high and trashed from southwest wind. The East Shore had waist high sets and clean with moderate southwest wind.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Monday (1/29) California was getting swell originating from a small gale that developed 1,000 nmiles north of Hawaii Wed (1/24) generating 24 ft seas lifting northeast through the Gulf Thurs-Fri (1/26) with 25 ft seas aimed east. Another small gale developed in the same area Sat (1/27) while tracking northeast through the Gulf producing 25-28 ft seas aimed east. That swell is impacting Hawaii and moving towards California. And yet another gale developed half way from Japan to the dateline while tracking east to a point north of Hawaii Sat-Mon (1/29) producing 23 ft seas aimed east at the Islands then is forecast lifting northeast through the far Eastern Gulf into Thurs (2/1) with seas in the 33-35 ft range while stalled off the Pacific Northwest aimed southeast targeting the US West Coast. And yet another gale is forecast pushing off Japan moving to the dateline Thurs-Sat (2/3) producing up to 43 ft seas aimed east. Perhaps a small gale to develop off Central CA on Sun (2/4) producing 23 ft seas but very close to the coast. And maybe another to develop half way to the dateline from Japan on Mon (2/5) with seas building from 24 ft. More swell is likely for both Hawaii and the US West Coast. The jetstream continues strong as the Active Phase of the MJO builds.

See all the details below...

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Monday (1/29) the jet was consolidated pushing east from Japan with winds 190 kts reaching to 135W or 550 nmiles off Central CA then splitting with a broad gentle trough over the dateline offering support for gale development. Over the next 72 hours the jet is to push east impacting Pt Conception on Wed (1/31) with trough just off North Ca and another over the dateline both offering support for gale development with the North CA trough moving onshore over North CA late Thurs (2/1). Beyond 72 hours the jet is to rage while pushing onshore over Southern CA with winds 170 kts supporting weather there while the dateline trough moves north of Hawaii still supporting gale development. Back to the west the jet is to start getting wider and almost splitting Thurs-Sat (2/3) with the split point reaching 170W and winds dropping to 130-140 kts. But by Sun (2/4) the jet is to reconsolidate off Japan reaching to the dateline with winds 170 kts and a trough building north of it and west of the dateline supporting gale development on the dateline moving east to the Western Gulf on Tues (2/6). And the jet is forecast building more ito Feb 14th. A very active pattern is forecast.

Surface Analysis
On Monday (1/29) swell was fading from a gale that developed over the Western Gulf with energy from that impacting California (see West Gulf Gale below). And another swell was tracking east from a gale that developed in the Western Gulf targeting the US West Coast (see Another Gulf Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours a gale is to start building Mon PM (1/29) north of Hawaii with 30-35 kt west winds and seas building from 20 ft at 30N 165W tracking northeast. On Tues AM (1/31) the gael is to lifting northeast through the Gulf with 35-40 kt west winds and seas 23 ft over a small area at 39.75N 147.5W aimed east. In the evening fetch is to be building fast off the Pacific Northwest at 45+ kts from the north and seas 32 ft at 39.75N 143.75W aimed southeast. On Wed Am (1/31) north winds to be 50 kts with seas 33 ft at 41.5N 142W aimed southeast targeting North and Central CA well. In the evening northwest winds to be 40-45 kts over a broad area with seas 33 ft at 41N 135W aimed southeast and the gale moving east. The gale to lift north Thurs AM (2/1) with north winds 40-45 kts and seas 28-30 ft over a solid area off the Pacific Northwest at 40N 134W aimed southeast. Fetch slowly fade from there into Fri PM (2/2). . Something worth monitoring.

North CA: Rough data suggest swell arrival on Thurs (2/1) building to 11.2 ft @ 15-16 secs later (16 ft). Swell Direction: 281 degrees

Southern CA: Rough data suggests swell arrival on Thurs (2/1) building to 4.7 ft @ 16 secs mid-day (7.5 ft). Swell Direction: 286 degrees

 

West Gulf Gale
And a new gale developed 750 nmiles north of Hawaii Wed AM (1/24) producing west winds at 30-35 kts and seas 24 ft over a tiny area at 34N 163W aimed east. In the evening the gale lifted north with 35-40 kt northwest winds over a moderate area with 23 ft seas at 38N 160W aimed east. On Thurs AM (1/25) the gale was stationary with west winds at 35-40 kts in the Gulf and seas 23 ft at 38.5N 158W aimed east. The gale was fading in the evening while lifting slowly north with 35 kt west winds and seas 25 ft at 40N 155.75W aimed east. On Fri AM (1/26) the gale was fading with 30-35 kt west winds and seas fading from 23 ft at 43.25N 155W aimed east. The gale to dissipate in the evening with 30 kts west winds and seas fading from 22 ft at 45N 151W aimed east. Altimtery suggest seas were 2-3 ft higher than what the wave model indicated. Possible sideband swell for Hawaii and more direct swell for the US West Coast.

North CA: Swell fading Mon (1/29) from 4.5 ft @ 12-13 secs (5.5 ft). Swell Direction: 285 degrees

Southern CA: Swell fading on Mon (1/29) from 2.4 ft @ 13 secs (3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 289 degrees

 

Another Gulf Gale
A gale organized northwest of Hawaii Sat AM (1/27) producing west winds at 30 kts and seas 18 ft at 30N 177W. In the evening west winds were 35 kts north of Hawaii with seas 19 ft at 33.5N 160W aimed east and southeast. On Sun AM (1/28) the gale was lifting northeast in the Gulf with 40-45 kt west winds over a moderate sized area and relatively close to the California coast with seas building from 25 ft at 36.75N 150.25W aimed east. In the evening 40 kt west winds are to be lifting northeast off Oregon with seas 28 ft at 42N 139.5W aimed east right at North and Central CA. On Mon AM (1/29) the gale is to be racing northeast off Central Canada with 35-45 kt west winds and seas 29 ft aimed only at and nearly impacting the Central Canadian Coast offering nothing for CA. The gale is to move over British Columbia after that. Possible small swell for CA to result.

Oahu: Swell building on Mon (1/29) to 5.5 ft @ 13-14 secs early (7.0 ft). Swell being overtaken by new swell beyond. Swell Direction: 315 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Tues mid-AM (1/30) peaking mid-day at 7.0 ft @ 14 secs (9.0 ft). Swell fading Wed AM (1/31) from 5.6 ft @ 12 secs (6.5 ft) and buried in local windswell. Swell Direction: 276-283 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival late on Tues (1/30) at 2.5 ft @ 15 secs (3.5 ft). Swell fading Wed (1/31) from 2.5 ft @ 13 secs (3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 281-288 degrees

 

West Pacific Gale
Starting Sat AM (1/27) a new gale started building off Japan producing a small fetch of northwest winds at 30-35 kts over a fragmented and small area starting to get traction with seas 20 at 35N 162E aimed southeast. In the evening the gale moved east with northwest winds at 35 kts over a slightly broader area with seas 19 ft at 34N 162E. Fetch built some in coverage some Sun AM (1/28) at 35 kts from the west just west of the dateline with seas 23 ft over a modest area at 32.5N 167.75E aimed east. In the evening northwest winds were 35 kts on the dateline with seas 23 ft at 30N 177E aimed east. On Mon AM (1/29) the gale was fading in coverage while pushing east to a point 750 nmiles northwest of Hawaii with west winds 30 kts and seas 22 ft at 29N 172W aimed east. In the evening fetch was weakly passing just 600 nmiles north of the Islands with west winds 30-35 kts and seas 20 ft at 30N 166W aimed east. Modest swell possible for Hawaii arriving on Tues (1/30).

Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Tues (1/30) building to 7.4 ft @ 13-14 secs later (9.5 ft). Swell fading Wed (1/31) from 6.2 ft @ 13 secs (8.0 ft). Residuals on Thurs (2/1) fading from 3.6 ft @ 12-13 secs (4.5 ft). Swell Direction: 310 degrees

 

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

Tropical Update
No tropical systems of interest were being tracked.

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

  • Tues AM (1/30) south winds to be 15-20 kts for Cape Mendocino and 10 kts for the rest of North CA early with a front well off the coast and calm winds for Central CA early. In the afternoon south winds to be 30 kts for Cape Mendocino and south 15-20 kts for the rest of North CA and south 5-10 kts for Central CA. Rain developing for Cape Mendocino in the evening.
  • Wed AM (1/31) a front is to be impacting North CA with south winds 35-45 kts for Cape Mendocino and south winds 25-30 kts to the Golden Gate and 20 kts down to Santa Cruz and south winds 10-15 kts for the rest of Central CA. In the afternoon the front pushes down into Central CA with southwest winds 10-15 kts for North CA and south winds 20-30 kts for the SF Bay Area and south winds 10 kts for the rest of Central CA. Heavy rain for Cape Mendocino early with rain down to Pt Arena pushing to Big Sur in the afternoon and Pt Conception in the evening. Snow developing for Tahoe in the evening.
  • Thurs AM (2/1) the front is to be pushing over Southern CA with west winds 5-10 kts for North and Central CA and south winds 20 kts for southern CA. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 10 kts for North and Central CA and 15 kts for Southern CA. Rain for all of North and Central CA early moving over Southern CA mid-day and heavy there. Heavy snow for the Sierra through the day and evening.
  • Fri AM (2/2) northwest winds to be 15 kts for all of North, Central and Southern CA early. In the afternoon west winds to be 10+ kts for North and Central CA and 15-20 kts for Southern CA. Light rain possible for North and Central CA holding through the day fading in the evening. Modest to moderate snow for the Sierra through the day.
  • Sat AM (2/3) southwest winds to be 15-20 kts early for Cape Mendocino and west 5-10 kts for the rest of North CA and northwest 5-10 kts for Central CA and northwest 20 kts for Southern CA. In the afternoon a new low starts building off Pt Conception with south winds 10 kts for North CA early and south winds 5 kts for Central CA. Light rain possible for the coast early but mainly focused on North CA and holding there through the day and evening. No snow forecast.
  • Sun AM (2/4) the low is to be slowly moving up the CA coast centered off Central CA with south winds build to 30-35 kts for both North and Central CA early with a front impacting the coast and south winds 5-10 kts for Southern CA. In the afternoon the low is to be just off San Francisco with south winds 30-35 ks for North and Central CA and 20-25 kts for Southern CA. Rain for the coast of Central CA early building to heavy status for the entire state by the afternoon and evening. Very heavy snow for the Sierra in the afternoon and evening.
  • Mon AM (2/5) the low is to be just of Pt Arena with south winds 30-35 kts for North CA and 20-25 kts for Central CA and 15-20 kts for Southern CA. in the afternoon south winds to be 30 kts for North CA and 10-15 kts for Central CA. Rain continuing for all of California in the morning holding all day. Heavy snow for the Sierra fading some in the evening.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at 73, 87, 77, and 66 inches respectively some on Wed PM-Fri Afternoon (2/2) and then a lot more Sun AM-Tues PM (2/6).

Freeze Level for Tahoe Ski Resorts: Freeze Level 10,500 ft on Mon (1/29) falling steadily and below 6,000 ft on Wed (1/31) afternoon then generally 4,000-5.000 ft thereafter and down to 3,000 ft periodically.

- - -

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for Resort specific forecasts).

 

South Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
No swell of interest coming from the Southern Hemisphere was hitting Hawaii or California. Summer is over.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours another gale is forecast developing off North Japan Fri AM (2/2) producing 55 kt west winds and seas building from 43 ft at 41.25N 167.75E. In the evening the gael is to track east with west winds at 45 kts with seas 43 ft at 44N 175E aimed east. On Sat AM (2/3) the gale is to be lifting northeast with west winds 30-40 kts and seas 39 ft at 48.5N 179W aimed east but mostly just 35 ft. Fetch dissipating in the evening with seas from previous fetch 28 ft at 50.5N 171W aimed east. Something to monitor.

And perhaps another gael is to develop on the dateline early Tues (2/6). Quite a pattern shaping up.

 

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

 

MJO/ENSO Forecast

 

El Nino Past It's Peak
NINO3.4 SST Anomalies Still Reflect a Strong El Nino - But the End is Near
1 Kelvin Wave traversed the Pacific in Dec '22 with a 2nd in Jan-Feb and a 3rd and 4th in March-April, a 5th in May and a 6th in August. But after the last Active MJO in mid-to-late May (resulting in Kevin Wave #5), the MJO stalled. Finally the Active Phase restarted in later July Producing Kelvin Wave #6 which is erupting off Ecuador now. Another Active Phase of the MJO and 3 associated Westerly Wind Bursts developed early Oct thru later Nov producing Kelvin Waves #7 and #8 which are erupting off Ecuador now. And westerly anomalies in Dec tried to produce Kelvin Wave #9, but it has fizzled. All these Active MJO/Kevin Wave pairs have backfilled warm water off Ecuador and helping push the atmosphere deeper into El Nino. But that warm pool is now draining to the east and will last maybe another month (early Feb) with no additional Kelvin Waves expected from the west. The End of El Nino is near. But El Nino is finally evident in the atmosphere as evidenced by the jetstream and OLR.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023.

LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Winter 2023 = 7.7 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)

Rationale: A 3 year La Nina started fading in Jan 2023 and was gone by April. 6 Active MJO's produced 6 Kelvin Waves over early to mid 2023 with Kelvin Wave #7 in August building over the West Pacific and the 4th, 5th and 6th backed up off Ecuador now (10/20/23). The CFS model is predicting steady west anomalies from here forward and the leading edge of the low pressure bias moving over California now filling the Pacific. We are now under an El Nino status. We are moving into a period of enhanced storm production (starting late Sept 2023) and beyond, getting intense come late Fall and early Winter. This should result in an above normal level of swells, with swells being longer than normal duration from here forward as El Nino gets a stronger footprint on the atmosphere. The net result is a well above normal number of swells with above normal size and duration (i.e 15 significant class swells perhaps). Last year there were 0 and year before 5 or less.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (1/28) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the East equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and weak east over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the East equatorial Pacific and light east over the Central Pacific and moderate west over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (1/29) West anomalies are strong over the KWGA. The forecast indicates strong west anomalies holding till 1/31 then down to modest strength through 2/5 then building back to strong status 2/6 holding through the end of the model run on 2/14.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:  
OLR Models: (1/28) The Active Phase of the MJO (wet air/cloudy skies) was covering the KWGA. The statistic model indicates the Active MJO (wet air/cloudy sky's) is to push slowly east still filling the KWGA through day 5 then almost east of the KWGA on day 10 then east of the KWGA on day 15 with the Inactive Phase filling the KWGA. The dynamic model depicts the Active MJO holding stationary over the KWGA and building to strong status on day 15 of the model run.
Phase Diagrams - 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (1/29) The statistical model depicts the Active signal was moderate over the West Pacific today. The forecast indicates it is to push east at either very weak or moderate status moving to Africa 15 days out. The dynamic model indicates the Active Phase is to stall over the West Pacific for the next 15 day at moderate strength.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (1/29) A modest Active MJO pattern (wet air) was indicated filling the KWGA today. The forecast has the Active Phase (wet air) holding over the KWGA through 2/8. Then the Inactive Phase (dry air) is to follow over the KWGA 2/13 through 2/28. Then a weak Active Phase is to push into the KWGA 3/4 through the end of the model run on 3/9.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (1/28)
Today the Active Phase of the MJO was building over the KWGA with west anomalies strong in 1 pocket on the dateline. The forecast indicates the Active Phase is to hold with west anomalies continuing strong through 2/2 then fading some only to return on 2/7 holding through the end of the model run on 2/25 with no east anomalies forecast.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind):
(1/29) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today the Active Phase of the MJO has taken control of the entirety of the KWGA with west anomalies blowing at modest strength. The Active Phase is to continue filling the KWGA with west anomalies in control through 3/3. A solid Inactive Phase is forecast moving in to the far West KWGA 2/6 but stalling there then finally making a real push east 3/1 through 4/8 with weak east anomalies taking control 3/3 into 4/18. A mixed pattern is to follow through the end of the model run on 4/23 with weak west anomalies in control. The low pass filter indicates a broad low pressure bias is established over the KWGA centered at 165W with a third contour line fading on 3/23 and the second contour line fading 4/20. The high pressure bias was over the Maritime Continent 10/2-1/21 but is now gone. It appears a strong El Nino is in control and is to move east over the next 3 months while dissipating.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (1/29) Today in the far West Pacific the leading edge of the 30 deg isotherm was steady at 180W previously moving from 165W. The 29 degree isotherm was backtracking to 169W from 157W. The 28 deg isotherm line had raced east at 112W but today is back at 149W and is likely to retreat from there. The 24 degree isotherm extended the whole way across the Pacific and steady at 47m deep (25m earlier but at one point down to 65m). Anomaly wise, warm anomalies at +2 deg C started in the in the East Pacific at 158W and are withering while moving east fast. +3 deg anomalies have evaporated in that area and now start at 126W (previously 143W and 172W). +4 degs anomalies associated with Kelvin Wave #7/#8 start at +117W (previously 145W) pushing east in a continuous stream into Ecuador. The warm pool in the east is discharging fast to the surface with no backfilling occurring. There's about 2-3 weeks of warm water backed up off the Ecuadorian Coast. Colder water extends east now to 103W undercutting the warm pool preventing the formation of any new Kelvin Wave. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 1/23 is more optimistic indicating +1-2 degs anomalies start at 165E and over a large section of the subsurface equatorial Pacific but only reaching down to 100 meters. The warm pool is building while tracking east with 3 deg anomalies from Kevin Wave #7/#8 at 130W (previously 135W) and east of there erupting into Ecuador. A thin stream of +0.5 degree anomalies were falling off the Maritime Continent merging with the preexisting warm stream. Cool water was building deep in the far West Pacific down 150m reaching east to 110W while lifting up to 70 meters. The end is near for El Nino and El Nino is past it's peak. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (1/23) Sea heights were positive across the East Equatorial Pacific starting at 143W (previously 180W) at +0-5 cms extending east into Ecuador. +5 cm anomalies covered the area starting at 135W (previously 155W) to the Ecuadorian Coast (Kelvin Wave #7, #8 and #9). No +10 cm anomalies remain. It appears the warm pool is starting to discharge quickly to the east. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (1/23) warm water is racing east with +0.5 degs anomalies starting at 134W (previously 160W) to Ecuador with a broad pocket of +1.0 deg anomalies starting at 112W (previously 148W) to Ecuador and moving east. Cool water was moving east reaching to 161W. The mature Phase of El Nino is over with cooler water developing over the West Pacific and warm water discharging in the east over Ecuador. This signals an eventual turn to La Nina.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (1/28) The latest images depict a strong warm stream from Ecuador uniformly covering the area on the equator west to the dateline. Temps are fading slightly in it's core from 100W to 140W. Heat also extends north up to Southern Baja and south down into North Chile. There is a very clear El Nino signal with the classic El Nino triangle in-place but steadily losing density.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (1/28): A warming trend was between the Galapagos out to 125W on the equator. Strong warming is also occurring along Peru and Chile. In general a warming trend has been well entrenched over the East Pacific since Nov 1 2022.
Hi-res Overview: (1/28) Warmer than normal waters are filling the Equatorial Pacific from Ecuador to the dateline and strongest from 100W to 125W. The classic El Nino tongue of warm water is still present but slowly losing it's density on the equator west to the dateline. Everything still looks like El Nino.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (1/29) (The official OISST temp record runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps are steady at +0.640 and have been toggling in the +0.6 degs range since 12/30, previously falling from the +2.0 range in early Nov. .
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps:
(1/29) (OISST runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were steady at +1.218 degs falling some since 1/3 when it peaked at +1.695 degs. We are past peak temps now. Temps have been in the +1.5 range since 11/19. Weekly OISST are at +1.7 week of 1/24 and 1/17 up at +1.9 degs 1/10 and 1/3. and up at +2.0 (12/27, 12/20 and 12/13) after being at +1.9 (12/6), +2.0 degs (11/29) and +2.1 (week of 11/22 - the highest so far), then +1.9 the week before and +1.8 degs (previous 2 weeks).

Click for Full Sized Image Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps started slowly rising to -0.75 degs in Jan 2023 and up to -0.5 degs (above the La Nina threshold) on 2/12. Temps rose to +0.50 degs mid-May and were at +0.9 degs in mid-June, and +1.05 mid July reaching up to +1.30 degs early Aug, +1.6 degs in Sept holding in Oct and , +1.95 in Nov, +2.0 in Dec and +1.95 in Jan.
Forecast (1/29) - Temps are to fall to +1.5 degs in mid-Feb. Temps are to be falling to +1.0 mid-March and steadily falling from there down to -2.0 degs in Oct 2024. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same thing but with temps falling to -1.5 degs in Oct. According to this version of the model we are at the peak of our strong El Nino.
IRI Consensus Plume: The January 20, 2024 Plume (all models) depicts temps are +1.53 degs today and it's the 9th month above the La Nina threshold. Temps to fall steadily from here forward down to +1.149 in Feb (that's a 3 months running mean) then fading from there down to -0.783 in Sept. The Dynamic model suggest temps falling to -0.827 in Sept and the Statistic down to -0.783.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (1/29) the Daily Index was negative -16.25 today and has been negative the last 7 days but was positive and up to +31.61 on 1/6 and had been rising the last 10 days. It had been effectively neutral 11/20/23 through 1/10/24. This is not consistent with El Nino. Previously it was negative for 29 days (7/14-8/11) with a peak down to -37.30 on 7/25 and negative previously to 7/12 with peaks down to -29.32 on 5/31, -64.63 on 5/24 and -31.31 on 5/12.
The 30 day average was falling at +5.81, Recent max lows were -10.43 on 11/16 and -15.70 on 9/23.
The 90 day average was falling some at -2.29. Recent max lows were -11.14 on 11/17, -11.85 on 10/15.
El Nino is collapsing

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative ever since and the most negative in 2021-2023 since 2011, driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions. There's some sign of it rising in Nov/Dec 2023, but only slightly. In May-July 2021 it was the most negative its been in the -1.80 to -2.04 range since Sept 2012 (-2.99) and then fell to -3.16 in Oct 2021 (the lowest since July 1933) then settled at -2.72 in Nov and Dec 2021. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 


Powerlines Jeff Clark Inside Mavericks

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

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