BUOY ROUNDUP
Wednesday, January 31, 2024 :

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Wednesday (1/31) in North and Central CA waves were head high to 1 ft overhead coming from the south and pretty ragged and raw from south winds. Protected breaks were waist high and line dup and clean but pretty soft. At Santa Cruz surf was chest high and line dup but pretty whitecapped and chopped and not really rideable. In Southern California/Ventura waves were head high and lined up with good form and clean with light offshore winds but just a little on the soft side. Central Orange County had sets at head high and lined up with good form but pretty soft and clean but with some south texture starting to develop. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had waves at maybe thigh high and lined up and clean but very soft. North San Diego had waves to waist to chest high and clean and lined up with good form but pretty soft. Oahu's North Shore had waves in the 8-9 ft range (Hawaiian) and clean with light offshore winds and lined up though the swell was a little uneven. The South Shore had waves at waist high and clean but inconsistent and weak. The East Shore was getting wrap around swell at chest high and getting warbled from modest easterly trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Wednesday (1/31) California was getting swell originating from a small gale that developed 1,000 nmiles north of Hawaii Sat (1/27) while tracking northeast through the Gulf producing 25-28 ft seas aimed east. Hawaii was getting swell from a another gale that developed half way from Japan to the dateline while tracking east to a point north of Hawaii Sat-Mon (1/29) producing 23 ft seas aimed east at the Islands. Looking forward this gale if forecast to lift northeast through the far Eastern Gulf Tues-Thurs (2/1) with seas building to the 33-35 ft range while stalled off the Pacific Northwest aimed southeast targeting the US West Coast. And yet another gale is forecast pushing off Japan moving to the dateline Thurs-Sat (2/3) producing up to 39 ft seas aimed east. Perhaps a small gale to develop off Central CA on Sun (2/4) producing 23 ft seas but very close if not impacting the coast directly. And maybe another to develop on the dateline on Tues-Wed (2/7) but details are hard to decipher at this early date. The jetstream is to continue strong into Sat (2/3) then falter only to rebuild mid-next week fueled by the Active Phase of the MJO builds.

See all the details below...

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Wednesday (1/31) the jet was consolidated pushing flat east from Japan on the 30N latitude line with winds 180 kts starting to push onshore over Central CA with a trough developing just off North CA and another on the dateline both supportive of gale development. Over the next 72 hours the North CA trough is to build while moving onshore on Thurs (2/1) creating weather while the dateline trough slow pushes east to the Central Gulf on Sat (2/3) while building still supporting gale development. Back to the west the jet is to start getting wider and almost splitting Thurs-Sat (2/3) with the split point reaching 160W (north of Hawaii) and winds dropping to 140-150 kts supporting another developing trough pushing off Kamchatka. Beyond 72 hours the jet is to continue to push into Central CA with winds 160 kts as the Gulf trough pushes closer to the coast supporting gale development eventually moving onshore on Wed (2/7). That is likely to be one long Atmospheric River event for Central CA. Meanwhile the Kamchatka trough is to hold stationary on Sun (2/4) with winds rebuilding in the jet off Japan to 200 kts with the jet reconsolidating on Tues (2/6) then starting to grow to the east and reaching to the dateline on Wed (2/7). Longer range model suggest the consolidated just pattern is to build some 2 weeks out. A very active pattern is forecast.

Surface Analysis
On Wednesday (1/31) swell was fading in California from a gale that developed in the Western Gulf targeting the US West Coast (see Another Gulf Gale below). And swell was fading in Hawaii from a gale that tracked over the West Pacific (see West Pacific Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours a gale is to be building over the East Gulf targeting California with swell and weather (see East Gulf Gale below).

And a gale is forecast developing off North Japan Thurs PM (2/1) producing 50 kts northwest winds and seas building from 33 ft at 40.75N 157.5E aimed east. On Fri AM (2/2) the gale is to track east producing 50 kt west winds and seas building to 40 ft at 41.25N 167.5E. In the evening the gale is to track east to northeast while fading over the dateline with west winds at 35-40 kts with seas fading from 35 ft at 46N 179.25E aimed east. On Sat AM (2/3) the gale is to be lifting northeast with west winds 30-35 kts just south of the Central Aleutians with seas 29 ft at 58.5N 168.5E aimed east with 20 ft seas over a large area on the dateline pushing east from previous fetch. Fetch dissipating in the evening with seas from previous fetch 24 ft in a wall starting at 37N aligned on the 170W longitude line pushing east. Something to monitor.

Another Gulf Gale
A gale organized northwest of Hawaii Sat AM (1/27) producing west winds at 30 kts and seas 18 ft at 30N 177W. In the evening west winds were 35 kts north of Hawaii with seas 19 ft at 33.5N 160W aimed east and southeast. On Sun AM (1/28) the gale was lifting northeast in the Gulf with 40-45 kt west winds over a moderate sized area and relatively close to the California coast with seas building from 25 ft at 36.75N 150.25W aimed east. In the evening 40 kt west winds are to be lifting northeast off Oregon with seas 28 ft at 42N 139.5W aimed east right at North and Central CA. On Mon AM (1/29) the gale was racing northeast off Central Canada with 35-45 kt west winds and seas 29 ft aimed only at and nearly impacting the Central Canadian Coast offering nothing for CA. The gale moved over British Columbia after that. Possible small swell for CA to result.

North CA: Swell fading Wed AM (1/31) from 5.6 ft @ 12 secs (6.5 ft) and buried in local windswell. Swell Direction: 276-283 degrees

Southern CA: Swell fading Wed (1/31) from 2.5 ft @ 13 secs (3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 281-288 degrees

West Pacific Gale
Starting Sat AM (1/27) a new gale started building off Japan producing a small fetch of northwest winds at 30-35 kts over a fragmented and small area starting to get traction with seas 20 at 35N 162E aimed southeast. In the evening the gale moved east with northwest winds at 35 kts over a slightly broader area with seas 19 ft at 34N 162E. Fetch built some in coverage some Sun AM (1/28) at 35 kts from the west just west of the dateline with seas 23 ft over a modest area at 32.5N 167.75E aimed east. In the evening northwest winds were 35 kts on the dateline with seas 23 ft at 30N 177E aimed east. On Mon AM (1/29) the gale was fading in coverage while pushing east to a point 750 nmiles northwest of Hawaii with west winds 30 kts and seas 22 ft at 29N 172W aimed east. In the evening fetch was weakly passing just 600 nmiles north of the Islands with west winds 30-35 kts and seas 20 ft at 30N 166W aimed east. Modest swell possible for Hawaii arriving on Tues (1/30).

Oahu: Swell fading Wed (1/31) from 6.2 ft @ 13 secs (8.0 ft). Residuals on Thurs (2/1) fading from 3.6 ft @ 12-13 secs (4.5 ft). Swell Direction: 310 degrees

East Gulf Gale (Swell #7)
A gale started building Mon PM (1/29) north of Hawaii with 30-35 kt west winds and seas building from 20 ft at 30N 165W tracking northeast. On Tues AM (1/31) the gale started lifting northeast through the Gulf with 35-40 kt west winds and seas 22 ft over a small area at 39.75N 147.5W aimed east. In the evening fetch was building fast off the Pacific Northwest with 45+ kts from the north and west with seas 32 ft at 39.25N 143.25W aimed southeast. On Wed AM (1/31) north winds to be 50 kts with seas 33 ft up at 43.75N 142.5W aimed southeast targeting North and Central CA well. In the evening northwest winds to be 40-45 kts over a broad area with seas 33 ft over a solid area at 43.5N 139.5W aimed southeast and the gale moving east. On Thurs AM (2/1) the gael is to be off the Pacific Northwest with northwest winds 40-45 kts and seas 28-30 ft over a solid area at 47N 137.25W aimed southeast but 28 ft seas extending south to a point just off Cape Mendocino. Northwest fetch slowly fading in the evening from 40-45 kts with seas 29 ft at 45N 134W aimed southeast. Fetch fading Fri AM (2/2) from 40-45 kts still off the Pacific Northwest with seas 28 ft at 47N 134W aimed southeast. Fetch still in place in the evening at 40 kts with seas 29 ft at 45N 135W aimed southeast. Fetch is to be fading and falling south on Sat AM (2/3) at 35 kts with seas fading from 25 ft at 43N 134W aimed southeast. The gael to fade some from there while falling south. Something worth monitoring.

Oahu: Possible sideband swell arriving on Fri (2/2) building to 4.8 ft @ 16 secs later (7.5 ft). Swell fading on Thurs (2/3) fading from 4.8 ft @ 14-15 secs early (6.5 ft). Residuals on Fri (2/4) fading from 4.1 ft @ 14 secs (5.5 ft). Swell Direction: 20-25 degrees

North CA: Rough data suggests swell arrival on Thurs (2/1) building to 12.8 ft @ 15-16 secs later (18 ft) and very raw. Swell fading some on Fri (2/2) from 10.5 ft @ 14 secs (14.5 ft). Swell continues on Sat (2/3) slowly fading from 8.6 ft @ 13 secs (11.0 ft). Swell fading on Sun (2/4) from 5.0 ft @ 12-13 secs (6.0 ft) with alot of local windswell overriding it. Swell Direction: 265 degrees rotating to 300 degrees

Southern CA: Tough data suggests swell arrival on Thurs (2/1) building to 4.2 ft @ 15-16 secs later (7.0 ft) and raw. Swell fading some on Fri (2/2) from 4.9 ft @ 15 secs early (7.0 ft). Swell continues on Sat (2/3) slowly fading from 3.4 ft @ 13-14 secs (4.5 ft) only at exposed breaks. Swell fading on Sun (2/4) from 2.3 ft @ 13 secs (3.0 ft) with local windswell building over it at exposed breaks. Swell Direction: 270 degrees rotating to 305 degrees

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

Tropical Update
No tropical systems of interest were being tracked.

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at 66, 71, 73, and 85 inches respectively with big dumps Wed-Thurs (2/1) and Sun-Mon (2/5) but almost continuous accumulation from now through Wed (2/7). .

Freeze Level for Tahoe Ski Resorts: Freeze Level falling steadily and below 6,000 ft on Wed PM (1/31) then generally 3,000-4.000 ft rising some to 6,500 ft on Sun (2/4) before falling back to 5,000 ft thereafter rising to 6.500 ft on Wed (2/7) and holding.

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Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for Resort specific forecasts).

South Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
No swell of interest coming from the Southern Hemisphere was hitting Hawaii or California. Summer is over.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours remnants of the East Gulf Gale (details above) are to redevelop off Pt Conception on Sun (2/4) producing north and southwest winds 30-35 kts over a broad area with seas 24 ft at 27.5N 133W aimed east. In the evening southwest winds are to be 40-45 kts impacting Central CA with north winds 35-40 kts off san Francisco and seas 21 ft at 35N 127W and basically just a large confused sea state off Central CA. On Mon (2/5) the gale is to circulating off Pt Reyes with winds 35-40 kts and seas 25 ft at 37N 123.5W aimed east and impacting the SF Bay Area directly. No change in the evening with northwest winds 35-40 kts off North CA with seas 21 ft at 38N 129W aimed southeast. More of the same Tues AM (2/6) as the gale falls south. In the evening the gael is to be off Pt Conception with northwest winds 35 kts with seas 23 ft at 34N 130W aimed south. The gale is to fall due south and fade out on Wed PM (2/7). Quite a pattern shaping up.

On Sat (2/3) broad low pressure is to be over and filling the Northwest Pacific from the dateline to the Kuril Islands and holding through Wed PM (2/7). A fetch of southwest winds are to develop on the leading edge of this low on Tues PM (2/6) producing 30-35 kts southwest winds and seas building reaching 29 ft at Wed AM (2/7) at 46.5N 164.75W aimed east somewhat. Maybe some swell to result.

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

MJO/ENSO Forecast

El Nino Past It's Peak
NINO3.4 SST Anomalies Still Reflect a Strong El Nino - But the End is Near
1 Kelvin Wave traversed the Pacific in Dec '22 with a 2nd in Jan-Feb and a 3rd and 4th in March-April, a 5th in May and a 6th in August. But after the last Active MJO in mid-to-late May (resulting in Kevin Wave #5), the MJO stalled. Finally the Active Phase restarted in later July Producing Kelvin Wave #6 which is erupting off Ecuador now. Another Active Phase of the MJO and 3 associated Westerly Wind Bursts developed early Oct thru later Nov producing Kelvin Waves #7 and #8 which are erupting off Ecuador now. And westerly anomalies in Dec tried to produce Kelvin Wave #9, but it has fizzled. All these Active MJO/Kevin Wave pairs have backfilled warm water off Ecuador and helping push the atmosphere deeper into El Nino. But that warm pool is now draining to the east and will last maybe another month (early Feb) with no additional Kelvin Waves expected from the west. The End of El Nino is near. But El Nino is finally evident in the atmosphere as evidenced by the jetstream and OLR.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023.

Rationale: A 3 year La Nina started fading in Jan 2023 and was gone by April. 6 Active MJO's produced 6 Kelvin Waves over early to mid 2023 with Kelvin Wave #7 in August building over the West Pacific and the 4th, 5th and 6th backed up off Ecuador now (10/20/23). The CFS model is predicting steady west anomalies from here forward and the leading edge of the low pressure bias moving over California now filling the Pacific. We are now under an El Nino status. We are moving into a period of enhanced storm production (starting late Sept 2023) and beyond, getting intense come late Fall and early Winter. This should result in an above normal level of swells, with swells being longer than normal duration from here forward as El Nino gets a stronger footprint on the atmosphere. The net result is a well above normal number of swells with above normal size and duration (i.e 15 significant class swells perhaps). Last year there were 0 and year before 5 or less.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (1/30) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the East equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and weak west over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the East equatorial Pacific and neutral over the Central Pacific and moderate to strong west over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (1/31) West anomalies are strong over the KWGA. The forecast indicates strong west anomalies holding till 2/2 then briefly turning east in one pocket 2/3-2/6 then building back to strong west status 2/6 holding through the end of the model run on 2/16.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (1/31) Today in the far West Pacific the leading edge of the 30 deg isotherm was steady at 179W previously moving from 165W. The 29 degree isotherm was backtracking to 169W from 158W. The 28 deg isotherm line had raced east at 112W but today is back at 149W and is likely to retreat from there. The 24 degree isotherm extended the whole way across the Pacific and steady at 47m deep (25m earlier but at one point down to 65m). Anomaly wise, warm anomalies at +2 deg C started in the in the East Pacific at 150W and are withering while moving east fast. +3 deg anomalies have evaporated in that area and now start at 122W (previously 126W, 143W and 172W). +4 degs anomalies associated with Kelvin Wave #7/#8 start at +113W (previously 145W) pushing east in a continuous stream into Ecuador. The warm pool in the east is discharging fast to the surface with no backfilling occurring. There's about 2-3 weeks of warm water backed up off the Ecuadorian Coast. Colder water extends east now to 103W undercutting the warm pool preventing the formation of any new Kelvin Wave. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 1/23 is more optimistic indicating +1-2 degs anomalies start at 165E and over a large section of the subsurface equatorial Pacific but only reaching down to 100 meters. The warm pool is building while tracking east with 3 deg anomalies from Kevin Wave #7/#8 at 130W (previously 135W) and east of there erupting into Ecuador. A thin stream of +0.5 degree anomalies were falling off the Maritime Continent merging with the preexisting warm stream. Cool water was building deep in the far West Pacific down 150m reaching east to 110W while lifting up to 70 meters. The end is near for El Nino and El Nino is past it's peak. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (1/23) Sea heights were positive across the East Equatorial Pacific starting at 143W (previously 180W) at +0-5 cms extending east into Ecuador. +5 cm anomalies covered the area starting at 135W (previously 155W) to the Ecuadorian Coast (Kelvin Wave #7, #8 and #9). No +10 cm anomalies remain. It appears the warm pool is starting to discharge quickly to the east. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (1/23) warm water is racing east with +0.5 degs anomalies starting at 134W (previously 160W) to Ecuador with a broad pocket of +1.0 deg anomalies starting at 112W (previously 148W) to Ecuador and moving east. Cool water was moving east reaching to 161W. The mature Phase of El Nino is over with cooler water developing over the West Pacific and warm water discharging in the east over Ecuador. This signals an eventual turn to La Nina.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (1/30) The latest images depict a strong warm stream from Ecuador uniformly covering the area on the equator west to the dateline. Temps are fading slightly in it's core from 95W to 140W. Heat also extends north up to Southern Baja and south down into North Chile. There is a very clear El Nino signal with the classic El Nino triangle in-place but steadily losing density.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (1/30): A warming trend was between the Galapagos out to 140W on the equator. Strong warming is also occurring along Peru and Chile. In general a warming trend has been well entrenched over the East Pacific since Nov 1 2022.
Hi-res Overview: (1/30) Warmer than normal waters are filling the Equatorial Pacific from Ecuador to the dateline and strongest from 90W to 125W. The classic El Nino tongue of warm water is still present but slowly losing it's density on the equator west to the dateline. Everything still looks like El Nino.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (1/31) (The official OISST temp record runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps are steady at +0.540 and have been toggling in the +0.6 degs range since 12/30, previously falling from the +2.0 range in early Nov. .
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (1/31) (OISST runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were steady at +1.240 degs falling some since 1/3 when it peaked at +1.695 degs. We are past peak temps now. Temps have been in the +1.5 range since 11/19. Weekly OISST are at +1.7 week of 1/24 and 1/17 up at +1.9 degs 1/10 and 1/3. and up at +2.0 (12/27, 12/20 and 12/13) after being at +1.9 (12/6), +2.0 degs (11/29) and +2.1 (week of 11/22 - the highest so far), then +1.9 the week before and +1.8 degs (previous 2 weeks).

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps started slowly rising to -0.75 degs in Jan 2023 and up to -0.5 degs (above the La Nina threshold) on 2/12. Temps rose to +0.50 degs mid-May and were at +0.9 degs in mid-June, and +1.05 mid July reaching up to +1.30 degs early Aug, +1.6 degs in Sept holding in Oct and , +1.95 in Nov, +2.0 in Dec and +1.85 in Jan.
Forecast (1/29) - Temps are to fall to +1.5 degs in mid-Feb. Temps are to be falling to +1.0 mid-March and steadily falling from there down to -2.0 degs in Oct 2024. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same thing but with temps falling to -1.5 degs in Oct. According to this version of the model we are at the peak of our strong El Nino.
IRI Consensus Plume: The January 20, 2024 Plume (all models) depicts temps are +1.53 degs today and it's the 9th month above the La Nina threshold. Temps to fall steadily from here forward down to +1.149 in Feb (that's a 3 months running mean) then fading from there down to -0.783 in Sept. The Dynamic model suggest temps falling to -0.827 in Sept and the Statistic down to -0.783.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (1/31) the Daily Index was negative -21.52 today and has been negative the last 9 days but was positive and up to +31.61 on 1/6 and had been rising the last 10 days. It had been effectively neutral 11/20/23 through 1/10/24. This is not consistent with El Nino. Previously it was negative for 29 days (7/14-8/11) with a peak down to -37.30 on 7/25 and negative previously to 7/12 with peaks down to -29.32 on 5/31, -64.63 on 5/24 and -31.31 on 5/12.
The 30 day average was falling at +4.18, Recent max lows were -10.43 on 11/16 and -15.70 on 9/23.
The 90 day average was falling some at -2.70. Recent max lows were -11.14 on 11/17, -11.85 on 10/15.
El Nino is collapsing

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative ever since and the most negative in 2021-2023 since 2011, driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions. There's some sign of it rising in Nov/Dec 2023, but only slightly. In May-July 2021 it was the most negative its been in the -1.80 to -2.04 range since Sept 2012 (-2.99) and then fell to -3.16 in Oct 2021 (the lowest since July 1933) then settled at -2.72 in Nov and Dec 2021. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table