Pacific Storm & Surf Forecast (Stormsurf)

Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt): Seas were 4.2 ft @ 11.8 secs with swell 2.4 ft @ 11.6 secs from 274 degrees. Water temp 76.5 (Barbers Pt), 76.1 (Pearl Harbor 233), NA (Lani 239).
Buoy 187 (Pauwela): Seas were 9.3 ft @ 15.4 secs with swell 5.0 ft @ 18.4 secs from 26 degrees. Water temp 77.2 degs
Buoy 106 (Waimea)/Buoy 202 (Hanalei): Seas were 11.0 ft @ 16.7 secs with swell 7.1 ft @ 17.0 secs from 19 degrees. Water temp 75.7 degs
Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 7.5 ft @ 13.7 secs with swell 4.2 ft @ 12.7 secs from 273 degrees. Wind west at 18-21 kts. Water temperature 60.4 degs, 57.7 (Harvest 071), 59.5 (Topanga 103), 59.9 (Long Beach 215), 60.3 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 59.5 (Del Mar 153), 59.4 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 7.6 ft @ 13.3 secs from 296 degrees. At E. Santa Barbara (46053) swell was 4.3 ft @ 13.6 secs from 262 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 3.2 ft @ 13.6 secs from 258 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 3.3 ft @ 13.6 secs from 273 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 7.9 ft @ 13.7 secs from 279 degrees. Water temperature was 59.7 degrees (Imperial Beach).
Buoy 029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 11.8 ft @ 12.4 secs with swell 8.4 ft @ 13.0 secs from 285 degrees. Wind west at 12-18 kts (46026) and NA (1801589). Water temp NA (Bodega Bay 46013), 56.8 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 56.8 (San Francisco 46026), 55.4 (SF Bar 142), NA (1801589) and 58.6 (Monterey Bay 46042).

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Friday (2/2) in North and Central CA waves were 3 ft overhead and somewhat lined up but warbled and sloppy with moderate onshore wind. Protected breaks were up to 2 ft overhead and super lined up and pretty ragged and closed out. At Santa Cruz surf was 1-2 ft overhead and lined up but very sloppy and soft and only somewhat rideable. In Southern California/Ventura waves were waist to maybe chest high and lined up but warbled and ill formed and soft with onshore wind. Central Orange County had waves at head high and somewhat lined up lined up with poor form and shopped with solid northwest winds. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had waves at maybe waist high and chopped and trashed from strong onshore winds. North San Diego had waves at chest to head high and somewhat lined up with decent form but soft and warbled from onshore wind. Oahu's North Shore had waves in the 2-3 ft overhead range and lined up but very ragged if not chopped from north wind. The South Shore had waves at thigh to maybe waist high and clean and lined up when it came with decent form but inconsistent and weak. The East Shore was getting northeast swell with waves 10 ft plus and chopped from moderate north wind.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Friday (2/2) California and Hawaii were getting swell originating from a a gale that lifted northeast through the far Eastern Gulf Tues-Thurs (2/1) with seas to 35 ft then stalled off the Pacific Northwest Fri (2/2) with 26 ft seas aimed southeast targeting the US West Coast and Hawaii. And yet another gale is forecast pushing off Japan moving to the dateline Thurs-Sat (2/3) producing up to 39 ft seas aimed east. Perhaps a small gale to develop off Central CA on Sun (2/4) producing 23 ft seas but very close if not impacting the coast directly. And another was developing west of the dateline Fri-Sat (2/3) forecast to produce 39 ft seas aimed east. Beyond a small gale is forecast for the Northern Gulf Fri (2/9) with 29 ft seas aimed east while another forms at the same time on the dateline with 31 ft seas targeting Hawaii.

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

Overview
Jetstream
On Friday (2/2) the jet was consolidated east of Hawaii with winds 170 kts streaming into Central CA making weather there with a trough developing north of the Islands offering support for gale development. Back to the west the jet was still consolidated but broader streaming off Japan with winds 150 kts pushing to the dateline with a bit of a trough north of there offering some support for gale development then splitting slightly there before reconsolidating north of Hawaii. Over the next 72 hours the split and associated troughs are to all push east with with the Hawaiian trough now relocated just off Central CA supporting more gale formation while the previously off the Kuril Island centered half way to the dateline and the split in the jet north of Hawaii offering nothing. Beyond 72 hours the trough is to move onshore over Southern CA on Wed (2/7) creating more weather there while the split jet fills East Pacific but a consolidated jet is to be filling the West Pacific with winds to 160 kts supporting a gentle trough stalled west of the dateline supporting gale formation. By Fri (2/9) the split point is to be north of Hawaii with a weak trough pushing south down the California coast producing more weather and a moderately healthy consolidated flow at 150 kts streaming from Japan to a point north of Hawaii with a small trough embedded west of the dateline and another in the Northwestern Gulf both offering support for gale formation.

Surface Analysis
On Friday (2/2) swell was from a gale in the Eastern Gulf was fading in California and hitting Hawaii (see East Gulf Gale - Swell #7 below).

Over the next 72 hours a new Gale is to be developing west of the dateline (see West Dateline Gale below).

And remnants of the East Gulf Gale (details below) are to redevelop off Pt Conception on Sun (2/4) producing north and southwest winds (impacting the CA coast) at 30-35 kts over a broad area with seas 23 ft at 37.5N 134W aimed south. In the evening the core of the low is to be just off San Francisco with northwest winds 30-35 kts covering a broad area impacting Central CA and seas 23 ft at 35N 134W aimed south and basically just a large confused sea state off Central CA. On Mon (2/5) the gale is to circulating off Pt Reyes with northwest winds 25-30 kts and seas fading from 18-20 ft at 30N 135W and in another pocket just off Pt Reyes. The gale is to dissipate beyond. No real rideable surf expected except at the most protected breaks.

East Gulf Gale (Swell #7)
A gale started building Mon PM (1/29) north of Hawaii with 30-35 kt west winds and seas building from 20 ft at 30N 165W tracking northeast. On Tues AM (1/31) the gale started lifting northeast through the Gulf with 35-40 kt west winds and seas 22 ft over a small area at 39.75N 147.5W aimed east. In the evening fetch was building fast off the Pacific Northwest with 45+ kts from the north and west with seas 32 ft at 39.25N 143.25W aimed southeast. On Wed AM (1/31) north winds to be 50 kts with seas 33 ft up at 43.75N 142.5W aimed southeast targeting North and Central CA well. In the evening northwest winds to be 40-45 kts over a broad area with seas 33 ft over a solid area at 43.5N 139.5W aimed southeast and the gale moving east. On Thurs AM (2/1) the gael is to be off the Pacific Northwest with northwest winds 40-45 kts and seas 28-30 ft over a solid area at 47N 137.25W aimed southeast but 28 ft seas extending south to a point just off Cape Mendocino. Northwest fetch slowly fading in the evening from 40-45 kts with seas 29 ft at 45N 134W aimed southeast. Fetch fading Fri AM (2/2) from 40-45 kts still off the Pacific Northwest with seas 28 ft at 47N 134W aimed southeast. Fetch still in place in the evening at 40 kts with seas 29 ft at 45N 135W aimed southeast. Fetch is to be fading and falling south on Sat AM (2/3) at 35 kts with seas fading from 25 ft at 43N 134W aimed southeast. The gael to fade some from there while falling south. Something worth monitoring.

Oahu: Possible sideband swell arriving on Fri (2/2) building to 4.8 ft @ 16 secs later (7.5 ft). Swell fading on Thurs (2/3) fading from 4.8 ft @ 14-15 secs early (6.5 ft). Residuals on Fri (2/4) fading from 4.1 ft @ 14 secs (5.5 ft). Swell Direction: 20-25 degrees

North CA: Swell fading some on Fri (2/2) from 10.5 ft @ 14 secs (14.5 ft). Swell continues on Sat (2/3) slowly fading from 8.6 ft @ 13 secs (11.0 ft). Swell fading on Sun (2/4) from 5.0 ft @ 12-13 secs (6.0 ft) with alot of local windswell overriding it. Swell Direction: 265 degrees rotating to 300 degrees

Southern CA: Swell fading some on Fri (2/2) from 4.9 ft @ 15 secs early (7.0 ft). Swell continues on Sat (2/3) slowly fading from 3.4 ft @ 13-14 secs (4.5 ft) only at exposed breaks. Swell fading on Sun (2/4) from 2.3 ft @ 13 secs (3.0 ft) with local windswell building over it at exposed breaks. Swell Direction: 270 degrees rotating to 305 degrees

West Dateline Gale
A gale started developing off North Japan Thurs PM (2/1) producing 50 kts northwest winds and seas building from 31 ft at 40.75N 157.25E aimed east. On Fri AM (2/2) the gale is to track east producing 50 kt west winds and seas building to 40 ft at 42N 166E. In the evening the gale is to track east to northeast while fading over the dateline with west winds at 35-45 kts with seas 39 ft at 43.5N 178.25E aimed east. On Sat AM (2/3) the gale is to be lifting northeast just south of the Central Aleutians with west winds 35-40 kts with seas 35 ft at 47.5N 174.75W aimed east with 20 ft seas over a large area on the dateline pushing east from previous fetch. Fetch dissipating in the evening with seas from previous fetch 23 ft or greater in a wall starting at 36N aligned on the 170W longitude line pushing east. Something to monitor.

Oahu: Rough data suggests swell arrival on Mon (2/5) with swell 4.7 ft @ 17 secs mid-day (8.0 ft). Swell fading on Tues (2/6) from 3.2 ft @ 15 secs early (4.5-5.0 ft). Residuals on Wed (2/7) fading from 2.8 ft @ 13 secs early (3.5 ft). Swell Direction: 315 degrees.

North CA: Rough data suggests swell arrival late on Tues (2/6) building to 3.0 ft @ 18 secs late (5.5 ft). Swell peaking on Wed (3/7) at 4.0 ft @ 16 secs early (6.5 ft). Residuals on Thurs (3/8) fading from 4.2 ft @ 14 secs (6.0 ft) with much local windswell intermixed. Swell Direction: 297 degrees

Southern CA: Rough data suggests swell arrival on Wed (3/7) at 1.7 ft @ 16-17 secs mid-day at exposed breaks (2.5-3.0 ft). Residuals on Thurs (3/8) fading from 1.9 ft @ 15 secs (2.5-3.0 ft) with local windswell intermixed. Swell Direction: 302 degrees

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Sat AM (2/3) low pressure is to be just off Oregon and another developing well off Pt Conception with southwest winds to be 15 kts early for Cape Mendocino and southwest 5-10 kts for the rest of North CA and southwest 5 kts for Central CA and northwest 15 kts for Southern CA. In the afternoon the more southerly low builds off Pt Conception with south winds 15 kts for Cape Mendocino and 15 kts for the rest of North CA and south winds 15 kts for Central CA. Light rain possible for North CA early and then holding off the coast through the day moving solidly onshore over Central CA in the evening. No snow yet.
Sun AM (2/4) the low is to be impacting Central CA coast centered off Central CA with south winds 30-35 kts for North CA and up to 40 kts for Central CA early with a front impacting the coast and south winds 10-15 kts for Southern CA. In the afternoon the low is to be sweeping north off San Francisco with south winds 30-35 ks for Central CA and southeast 25 kts for North CA southwest at 20-25 kts for Southern CA. Heavy rain for the coast of Central CA and the southern half of North CA early building to heavy status for Big Sur northward mid-AM and pushing south to Orange Co in the afternoon and heavy and San Dir ego overnight while holding solidly over the northern portion of the state. Heavy snow developing for the Sierra early building through the day and holding in the evening.
Mon AM (2/5) the low is to be over Pt Arena with south winds 20-25 kts for North CA and 15 kts for Central CA and 5-10 kts for Southern CA with the front moving south of Southern CA. In the afternoon high pressure is to be trying to move into the area with northwest winds at 15 kts for Cape Mendocino and 10 kts for Central CA and south winds of 10 kts for Southern CA. Steady rain continuing for all of California North and South though getting weaker in the North while holding steady for Southern CA if not building in the evening. Steady snow for the Sierra fading some in the evening.
Tues AM (2/6) northwest winds to be 20-25 kts for Cape Mendocino and 15 kts for the rest of North CA and 10+ kts for Central CA. In the afternoon weak low pressure is to be over Southern CA high pressure to the east with northwest winds 20-25 kts for North CA and 15 kts for Central CA. Light rain for North and Central CA early and moderate for Southern CA fading to scattered showers in the North in the afternoon and still steady for Southern CA. Light snow for the Sierra early building some in the afternoon then fading in the evening.
Wed AM (2/7) high pressure takes control with northwest winds 20-25 kts for all of North and Central CA and 15 kts for Southern CA. In the afternoon northwest winds continue at 20-25 kts for the entire California coast. Light rain limited to mainly Central and Southern CA early finally clearing for Southern CA in the evening. Light snow for the Sierra mainly in the afternoon and evening.
Thurs AM (2/8) a weak low pressure system is to be just off North CA with east winds 10 kts for Cape Mendocino and northwest winds 10 kts for the rest of North CA and 15 kts over Pt Conception with northwest winds 20 kts for Southern CA. In the afternoon the low is to be over Monterey Bay with northwest winds 20 kts for North CA and 15-20 kts for Central CA and west at 10 kts for Southern CA. Rain developing for North CA early building south to Pt Conception in the afternoon and Southern CA in the evening. Snow developing for the Sierra mid-AM holding through the evening.
Fri AM (2/9) northwest winds to be 10-15 kts for North CA at 15-20 kts for Central CA and northwest 20 kts for Southern CA. More of the same in the afternoon. Rain for Southern CA early clearing in the evening. Snow for the Sierra moving south through the day.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at 73, 75, 86, and 55 inches respectively with some on Fri (2/2) and more and Sun-Mon (2/5) and then continuous accumulation into late Thurs (2/8).

Freeze Level for Tahoe Ski Resorts: Freeze Level 3,000-4,000 ft into Sat (2/3) building to 6,500 early Sun (2/4) before falling back to 5,000 ft thereafter falling to the 4,000 ft range 2/8 then rising on 2/11 to 10,000 ft.

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Overview
Surface Analysis
No swell of interest coming from the Southern Hemisphere was hitting Hawaii or California. Summer is over.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

Beyond 72 hours a gale is forecast developing Wed PM (2/7) in the Western Gulf producing a small area of 40 kt west winds with seas building from 23 ft at 40N 169.5W aimed east. On Thurs AM (2/8) the gale is to lift northeast with west winds 35 kts over a building area and seas 26 ft at 41.5N 162.5W aimed east. The gael is to build in the evening with 40 kt northwest winds and seas 22 ft at 46N 156W aimed southeast. On Fri AM (2/9) northwest winds to be 40-45 kts with seas 26 ft at 48N 150.5W aimed southeast. In the evening the gale is to ease east with 40+ kt west winds and seas 29 ft at 49N 145W aimed east and southeast.

On Thurs PM (2/8) a small low pressure system is to be approaching the dateline from a pretty south position producing northwest winds at 40-45 kts with seas building from 19 ft at 33N 166E aimed east. On Fri AM (2/9) the gale is to build to storm status with northwest winds 55 kts and seas 26 ft at 36N 172E aimed southeast. In the evening northwest winds to be 45-50 kts east of the dateline with seas 32 ft at 33.5N 176.75W aimed southeast targeting Hawaii well. Maybe some swell to result.

El Nino Collapsing in the Ocean
NINO3.4 SST Anomalies Still Reflect a Strong El Nino - But the End is Near
8 Kelvin Waves traversed the Pacific from Dec '22 through Nov 2023 erupting off Ecuador. The warm pool created by them is now dissipating fast off Ecuador. But the atmosphere is still deep in El Nino and will continue from previous momentum. Cold water is getting poised to start erupting off Ecuador in a few weeks which will hasten the demise of El Nino.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023.

Rationale: A 3 year La Nina started fading in Jan 2023 and was gone by April. 6 Active MJO's produced 6 Kelvin Waves over early to mid 2023 with Kelvin Wave #7 in August building over the West Pacific and the 4th, 5th and 6th backed up off Ecuador now (10/20/23). The CFS model is predicting steady west anomalies from here forward and the leading edge of the low pressure bias moving over California now filling the Pacific. We are now under an El Nino status. We are moving into a period of enhanced storm production (starting late Sept 2023) and beyond, getting intense come late Fall and early Winter. This should result in an above normal level of swells, with swells being longer than normal duration from here forward as El Nino gets a stronger footprint on the atmosphere. The net result is a well above normal number of swells with above normal size and duration (i.e 15 significant class swells perhaps). Last year there were 0 and year before 5 or less.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (2/1) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the East equatorial Pacific and moderate east over the Central Pacific and neutral over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the East equatorial Pacific and weak west over the Central Pacific and moderate to strong west over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (2/2) West anomalies are strong over the KWGA. The forecast indicates moderate west anomalies holding with embedded pockets of strong west anomalies through the end of the model run on 2/18.

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (2/10) The Active Phase of the MJO (wet air/cloudy skies) was covering the KWGA. The statistic model indicates the Active MJO (wet air/cloudy sky's) is to push slowly east still filling the KWGA through day 5 then almost east of the KWGA on day 10 then east of the KWGA on day 15 with the Inactive Phase filling the KWGA. The dynamic model depicts the Active MJO holding stationary over the KWGA and building to strong status on day 15 of the model run.
Phase Diagrams - 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (2/2) The statistical model depicts the Active signal was moderate over the West Pacific today. The forecast indicates it is to push east at either very weak or moderate status moving over the Central Indian Ocean 15 days out. The dynamic model indicates the Active Phase is to stall over the West Pacific for the next 15 day at moderate strength.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (2/2) A modest Active MJO pattern (wet air) was indicated filling the KWGA today. The forecast has the Active Phase (wet air) holding over the KWGA through 2/7. Then the Inactive Phase (dry air) is to follow over the KWGA 2/12 through 2/27. Then a weak Active Phase is to push into the KWGA 3/3 through the end of the model run on 3/13.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (2/1) Today the Active Phase of the MJO was building over the KWGA with west anomalies strong in a pocket on the dateline. The forecast indicates the Active Phase is to hold with west anomalies continuing strong through 2/8 then fading some at moderate status while tracking east and east of the KWGA 2/28 with weak east anomalies moving into the west KWGA 2/15 moving to the dateline at the end of the model run on 2/29.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (2/2) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today the Active Phase of the MJO was just past its peak but still filling the entirety of the KWGA with west anomalies blowing at modest strength. The Active Phase is to continue filling the KWGA with west anomalies in control through 3/7 but limited to only the dateline after 2/16. A solid Inactive Phase is forecast moving in to the West KWGA 2/6 but stalling there then finally making a real push east 3/5 through 4/16 with weak east anomalies taking control 3/8 into 4/18. A mixed pattern is to follow through the end of the model run on 5/1 with weak west anomalies in control. The low pass filter indicates a broad low pressure bias is established over the KWGA centered at 165W with a third contour line fading on 3/29 and the second contour line fading 4/27. The high pressure bias was over the Maritime Continent 10/2-1/21 but is now gone. It appears a strong El Nino is in control and is to move east over the next 3 months while dissipating.

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (2/2) Today in the far West Pacific the leading edge of the 30 deg isotherm was steady at 180W previously moving from 165W. The 29 degree isotherm was backtracking to 168W from 158W. The 28 deg isotherm line had raced east at 112W but today is back at 151W but with a thing layer between 105-126W. The 24 degree isotherm extended the whole way across the Pacific and was getting shallower in the east at 32 m deep versus 47m a week ago. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies at +2 deg C are crashing hard in the East Pacific starting at 135W (previously 150W) and are moving east fast. +3 deg anomalies have evaporated in that area and now start at 122W (previously 126W, 143W and 172W). +4 degs anomalies are no longer present. The warm pool in the east is discharging fast to the surface with no backfilling occurring. There's about 2 weeks of warm water left. Colder water extends east now under the entire Pacific to 102W undercutting the warm pool preventing the formation of any new Kelvin Wave. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 1/28 is more optimistic indicating +1-2 degs anomalies start at 165E and over a large section of the subsurface equatorial Pacific but only reaching down to 100 meters. This is likely just surface warming going deep. The warm pool is fading while tracking east. 3 deg anomalies from Kevin Wave #7/#8 start at 125W (previously 135W) and east of there erupting into Ecuador. Cool water was building deep in the far West Pacific down 150m reaching east to 100W while lifting up to 50 meters. The end is near for El Nino. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (1/28) Sea heights were positive limited to the East Equatorial Pacific starting at 140W at +0-5 cms extending east into Ecuador. +5 cm anomalies existed within that area limited to a few pockets. It appears the warm pool is discharge quickly to the east. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (1/28) warm water is racing east with +0.5 degs anomalies starting at 130W (previously 160W) to Ecuador with +1.0 deg anomalies limited to 98W (previously 148W) to Ecuador and moving east. Cool water was moving east reaching to 140W. El Nino is collapsing with cooler water developing over the West Pacific and now moving into the East Pacific. This signals are poised to turn to La Nina.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (2/1) The latest images depict a moderate warm stream from Ecuador uniformly covering the area on the equator west to the dateline. Temps are fading some in it's core from 95W to 135W. Heat also extends north up to Southern Baja and south down into North Chile. There is a very clear El Nino signal with the classic El Nino triangle in-place but steadily losing density and intensity.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (2/1): A warming trend was between the Galapagos out to 100W but cooling some between 105-115W on the equator. Strong warming is also occurring along Peru and Chile. In general a warming trend has been well entrenched over the East Pacific since Nov 1 2022.
Hi-res Overview: (2/1) Warmer than normal waters are filling the Equatorial Pacific from Ecuador to the dateline and strongest from 90W to 125W. The classic El Nino tongue of warm water is still present but slowly losing it's density on the equator west to the dateline. Everything still looks like El Nino.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (2/2) (The official OISST temp record runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps are steady at +0.502 and have been toggling in the +0.6 degs range since 12/30, previously up into the +2.0 range in early Nov. .
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (2/2) (OISST runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were rising at +1.338 up from +1.240 degs on 1/26 but have been falling some since 1/3 when it peaked at +1.695 degs. We are past peak temps now. Temps have been in the +1.5 range since 11/19. Weekly OISST are at +1.7 week of 1/24 and 1/17 up at +1.9 degs 1/10 and 1/3. and up at +2.0 (12/27, 12/20 and 12/13) after being at +1.9 (12/6), +2.0 degs (11/29) and +2.1 (week of 11/22 - the highest so far), then +1.9 the week before and +1.8 degs (previous 2 weeks).

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps started slowly rising to -0.75 degs in Jan 2023 and up to -0.5 degs (above the La Nina threshold) on 2/12. Temps rose to +0.50 degs mid-May and were at +0.9 degs in mid-June, and +1.05 mid July reaching up to +1.30 degs early Aug, +1.6 degs in Sept holding in Oct and , +1.95 in Nov, +2.0 in Dec and +1.85 in Jan.
Forecast (2/1) - Temps are to fall to +1.5 degs in mid-Feb. Temps are to be falling to +1.0 mid-March and steadily falling from there down to -1.9 degs in Oct 2024. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same thing but with temps falling to -1.5 degs in Oct and leveling off there. According to this version of the model we are past the peak of a strong El Nino.
IRI Consensus Plume: The January 20, 2024 Plume (all models) depicts temps are +1.53 degs today and it's the 9th month above the La Nina threshold. Temps to fall steadily from here forward down to +1.149 in Feb (that's a 3 months running mean) then fading from there down to -0.783 in Sept. The Dynamic model suggest temps falling to -0.827 in Sept and the Statistic down to -0.783.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (1/31) the Daily Index was negative -29.01 today and has been negative the last 11 days but was positive and up to +31.61 on 1/6 and had been rising the last 10 days. It had been effectively neutral 11/20/23 through 1/10/24. This is not consistent with El Nino. Previously it was negative for 29 days (7/14-8/11) with a peak down to -37.30 on 7/25 and negative previously to 7/12 with peaks down to -29.32 on 5/31, -64.63 on 5/24 and -31.31 on 5/12.
The 30 day average was falling at +2.20, Recent max lows were -10.43 on 11/16 and -15.70 on 9/23.
The 90 day average was falling some at -3.36. Recent max lows were -11.14 on 11/17, -11.85 on 10/15.
El Nino is collapsing

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative ever since and the most negative in 2021-2023 since 2011, driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions. There's some sign of it rising in Nov/Dec 2023, but only slightly. In May-July 2021 it was the most negative its been in the -1.80 to -2.04 range since Sept 2012 (-2.99) and then fell to -3.16 in Oct 2021 (the lowest since July 1933) then settled at -2.72 in Nov and Dec 2021. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.