Pacific Storm & Surf Forecast (Stormsurf)

Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt): Seas were 4.3 ft @ 11.8 secs with swell 2.4 ft @ 12.3 secs from 308 degrees. Water temp 75.9 (Barbers Pt), 75.2 (Pearl Harbor 233), NA (Lani 239).
Buoy 187 (Pauwela): Seas were 8.7 ft @ 11.8 secs with swell 6.3 ft @ 11.7 secs from 296 degrees. Water temp 75.6 degs
Buoy 106 (Waimea)/Buoy 202 (Hanalei): Seas were 7.1 ft @ 11.8 secs with swell 4.9 ft @ 12.3 secs from 355 degrees. Water temp 75.2 degs
Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 10.6 ft @ 14.7 secs with swell 8.3 ft @ 14.3 secs from 259 degrees. Wind northeast at 4-10 kts. Water temperature 59.2 degs, 57.7 (Harvest 071), 59.7 (Topanga 103), 59.0 (Long Beach 215), 59.5 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 59.4 (Del Mar 153), 59.7 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 7.5 ft @ 15.3 secs from 266 degrees. At E. Santa Barbara (46053) swell was 7.5 ft @ 14.2 secs from 272 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 5.3 ft @ 15.5 secs from 264 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 6.5 ft @ 13.4 secs from 264 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 9.3 ft @ 14.0 secs from 272 degrees. Water temperature was 59.7 degrees (Imperial Beach).
Buoy 029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 12.3 ft @ 10.5 secs with swell 7.4 ft @ 13.0 secs from 267 degrees. Wind SSE at 12-16 kts (46013) and SSE 10-12 kts (1801589). Water temp NA (Bodega Bay 46013), 55.8 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 56.1 (San Francisco 46026), 56.1 (SF Bar 142), 55.9 (1801589) and 58.6 (Monterey Bay 46042).

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Tuesday (2/20) in North and Central CA waves were up to double overhead and all over the place and raw with much warbled intermixed from south wind. Protected breaks were head high to 1-2 ft overhead and super lined up and closed out with real clean conditions. At Santa Cruz surf was up to 3 ft overhead on the peaks and ragged and raw and unorganized from south wind and chopped. In Southern California/Ventura waves were 2 ft overhead on the sets and real lined up with decent form but very brown from runoff. Central Orange County had waves at 3 ft overhead and and lined up but trashed with stair step chop from hard southerly wind. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had waves at 1-2 ft overhead and super lined up and looking clean clean but broken up by south lump and washing around and out of control. North San Diego had waves at 3 ft overhead and lined up with decent form but again with some sizeable south lump running through it. Oahu's North Shore had waves at 1 ft overhead and lined up and clean with decent form but also alot of closeouts. The South Shore was waist high on the sets and clean. The East Shore was head high and chopped from east trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Tuesday (2/20) California was getting the last pulse of swell from a gale that developed north of Hawaii on Sat (2/17) with 26 ft seas and then tracked east Sun-Mon (2/19) with 29-32 ft seas positioned off Central CA. And another gale developed over the North Dateline region Fri-Sat (2/17) with 46 ft seas over a small area aimed east. And maybe a weak system is to develop over the Central Gulf Wed-Thurs (2/22) with 23-26 ft seas aimed east. More swell is possible. Then things quickly settle down with maybe a gale or two off British Columbia Sun-Tues (2/27) with 23 ft and 29 ft seas respectively aimed southeast. And maybe something to develop just east of Japan on Tues (2/27) with 30 ft seas aimed east. But overall it sure looks like a big downturn is setting up.

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

Overview
Jetstream
On Tuesday (2/20) the jet was fully split in the west with northern branch pushing east off North Japan on the 45N latitude line and the southern branch tracking east on the 25N latitude line with both converging well north of Hawaii forming a trough in the Northwestern Gulf being fed by 130 kts winds offering some support for gale development. East of there the jet was a fragmented mess but again converged forming a trough positioned just off Central CA being fed by 110 kts winds offering some support for gale development with the last of the consolidated jet pushing onshore over Central and Southern CA producing weather there. Over the next 72 hours the Southern CA portion of the jet and associated trough are to move onshore on Wed (2/21). The Northwestern Gulf trough is to ease east becoming cut off from the main flow on Thurs (2/22) file falling southeast off North CA continuing to support some form a gale development. Beyond 72 hours that trough is to hold together while circulating well off Southern CA on Sat-Sun (2/25) then dissipating while moving inland over Southern CA on Mon (2/26). By Sat (2/24) the jet is to be fully split over the width of the North Pacific with the northern branch following just south of the Aleutian Islands and the southern branch down at 20-25N with no troughs forecast in either offering no support for gale development. But there is still to be good energy levels in the jet if it were to somehow consolidate in the future.

Surface Analysis
On Tuesday (2/20) swell was impacting California from a gale that previously traversed the Gulf then pulsed along the California coast (see Gulf Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours swell from a small storm that developed on the North Dateline Region is to be radiating into Hawaii and North CA (see Small North Dateline Storm below).

Also starting Tues PM (2/20) a gale is forecast developing in the Gulf with 30-35 kts northwest winds and seas building from 21 ft at 44N 157W aimed east. On Wed AM (2/21) northwest winds to build in coverage at 30-35 kts with seas 22 ft at 40.5N 150W aimed east. Northwest winds building in the evening at 35-40 kts in the Central Gulf with seas 28 ft at 42.5N 146W aimed southeast. On Thurs AM (2/22) fetch falling southeast at 35-40 kts with seas 26 ft at 38N 144W aimed southeast. In the evening fetch is to be falling south at 30-35 kts with seas fading from 23 ft at 33N 140W 1000 nmiles off Pt Conception. The gale to dissipate from there. Something to monitor.

North CA; Rough data suggests swell arrival on Fri (2/23) building to 7.0 ft @ 14 secs mid-day (9.5 ft). Swell fading Sat AM (2/24) from 4.3 ft @ 12-13 secs early (5.5 ft). Swell Direction: 292 degrees

Gulf Gale
Starting Fri PM (2/16) a gale started building 700 nmiles north of Hawaii with 35-40 kt northwest winds and seas building from 23 ft at 36N 164W aimed southeast. On Sat AM (2/17) fetch was building while falling southeast with 40 kt northwest winds and seas 27 ft at 32.5N 152W aimed southeast with sideband energy targeting Hawaii but most at the US West Coast. In the evening fetch to continue building while lifting northeast at 45 kts with seas 28 ft at 34N 145W aimed southeast. On Sun AM (2/18) the gale is to be holding off Monterey with 35-40 kt west winds and seas 31 ft at 34.75N 140W aimed southeast targeting all of Central and Southern California well. In the evening the gale is to hold stationary off Central CA with 30-35 kt northwest winds and seas 29 ft at 33N 136.5W off Pt Conception. On Mon AM (2/19) the gale is to be fading producing west winds at 25-30 kts just off San Francisco and seas 24 ft at 34.5N 133 with swell poised for all of Central CA. The gale to dissipate in the evening. Possible sideband energy for Hawaii but most targeting Central CA down into Southern CA and Baja. Something to monitor.

Oahu: Dribbles on Tues (2/20) fading from 4.5 ft @ 11 secs 94.5 ft). Swell Direction: 350 moving to 10 degrees.

North CA: Swell fading Tues (2/20) from 10.5 ft @ 13-14 secs early (13 ft). Residuals on Wed (2/21) fading from 5.5 ft @ 11-12 secs (6.5 ft). Dribbles on Thurs (2/22) fading from 3.5 ft @ 10 secs (3.5 ft) early. Swell Direction: 260-270 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Tues (2/20) building to 5.2 ft @ 14-15 secs early (7.5 ft). Residuals on Wed (2/21) fading from 2.9 ft @ 11-12 secs early (3.5 ft). Dribbles on Thurs (2/22) fading from 1.8 ft @ 11 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 275 degrees

Small North Dateline Storm
On Fri AM (2/18) a gale started building just off the Kuril Islands while lifting northeast with 45-50 kt west winds and seas building from 25 ft at 43N 160E aimed east. In the evening the gale built to storm status while lifting northeast and approaching the North Dateline region with 60-65 kt west winds and seas 41 ft at 48.5N 168.75E aimed east building to 46 ft in the late evening. On Sat AM (2/17) the gale was lifting over the West Central Aleutians with 50 kt west winds and seas 44 ft at 50.75N 174.5E aimed east. In the evening the gale was in the West Bering Sea with residual west winds of 35-40 kts south of the Aleutians over the North Dateline region with seas there fading from 29 ft unshadowed at 50N 180W aimed east. The gale dissipated from there. Something to monitor.

Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Tues (2/20) building to 2.5 ft @ 16-17 secs early (4.0 ft). Swell continues on Wed (2/21) at 3.2 ft @ 14-15 secs later (4.5 ft). Swell fading Thurs (2/22) from 3.4 ft @ 13 secs (4.5 ft). Swell Direction: 325 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Wed (2/21) building to 2.4 ft @ 17 secs mid-day (4.0 ft) and very inconsistent. Swell continues on Thurs (2/22) at 2.3 ft @ 15 secs (3.5 ft). Swell getting buried in other swell beyond. Swell Direction: 307 degrees

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Wed AM (2/21) west winds are forecast early for North CA at 5 kts and northwest 5 kts for Central CA and southwest 5-10 kts for Southern CA. In the afternoon another low starts building off the coast with south winds 5-10 kts for Cape Mendocino and west 5 kts for the SF Bay Area and northwest 5 kts for the rest of Central CA. Rain for mainly Central and Southern CA early fading all locations late morning. Snow for the Sierra early fading mid-afternoon.
Thurs AM (2/22) the low stalls a bit off the coast with south winds 10 kts for North CA but light and calm for Central CA early. In the afternoon south winds build at 10-15 kts for North CA and south 10 kts for most of Central CA. No precip forecast
Fri AM (2/23) the low remains stalled off the coast with southeast winds 10 kts for North CA and south winds 5 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon southeast winds to be 5-10 kts for North CA and south 5 kts for Central CA. No precip forecast
Sat AM (2/24) east winds are forecast at 5-10 kts for North CA early and southeast 5 kts for Central CA. No change in the afternoon.
Sun AM (2/25) northeast winds are forecast at 5-10 kts for North CA and south 10 kts for Central CA and 5 kts for Southern CA early. In the afternoon northeast winds continue for North CA at 5-10 kts and southeast at 10-15 kts for Central CA and south at 10 kts for Southern CA. Light scattered rain possible for Central CA mid-AM building in the evening up into the southern half of North CA early. Light snow for the Sierra in the afternoon and evening.
Mon AM (2/26) high pressure starts digging in with northwest winds 15-20 kts for North CA and south winds 5 kts for Central CA and south winds 5-10 kts for Southern CA early . In the afternoon the Springtime gradient arrives with northwest winds 20-25 kts for North and Central CA. Rain for North CA and scattered showers for Central CA early clearing in the evening. Snow for the Sierra holding through the day and fading in the evening.
Tues AM (2/27) northwest winds continue at 10-15 kts for North CA and 20-25 kts for Central CA early. No precip forecast.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at 20, 26, 19, and 12 inches with some later Tues (2/20) and the rest on Sun-Mon (2/26).

Freeze Level for Tahoe Ski Resorts: Freeze Level rising to steady at 5,000 ft falling and briefly to 3,000 ft early 2/22 before building to 8,500 ft on 2/23 then falling to 5,000 ft 2/25 and down to 1,500 ft on 2/27 then rising from there.

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Overview
Surface Analysis
No swell of interest coming from the Southern Hemisphere was hitting Hawaii or California. Summer is over.

Over the next 72 hours a gale is forecast developing southeast of New Zealand on Thurs PM (2/22) producing southwest winds at 40 kts and seas to 32 ft at 58.8S 179W aimed northeast. The gale to lift northeast Fri AM (2/23) with 40 kt southwest winds and seas 32 ft at 55S 166.5W aimed northeast. Fetch fading in the evening from 35 kts and seas fading from 30 ft at 51S 158.75W aimed northeast. Something to monitor.

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

Beyond 72 hours a small gale is forecast developing off British Columbia on Sun PM (2/25) producing northwest winds at 35 kts with seas 21 ft at 52.75N 136.25W and totally shadowed relative to North CA.

Another to follow tracking through the Northern Gulf Mon PM (2/26) with 45 kt west winds and seas 25 ft at 52.75N 155.5W aimed east. On Tues AM (2/27) west winds to be 45 kts with seas 29 ft at 51N 144.25W aimed east. The gale to be nearly onshore over North British Columbia in the evening and no longer of interest.

A gale is forecast developing just east of Japan on Tues AM (2/27) producing 40 kt northwest winds and seas building from 26 ft over a small area at 35N 145E aimed southeast. In the evening northwest winds build to 45 kts with seas 30 ft over a building area at 34N 151E aimed southeast. Something to monitor.

El Nino Collapsing
NINO3.4 SST Anomalies Starting to Fade
9 Kelvin Waves traversed the Pacific from Dec '22 through Dec 2023 erupting off Ecuador. The warm pool created by them is now dissipating fast off Ecuador. But the atmosphere is still in El Nino and will continue from previous momentum through slowly fading. Cold water is getting poised to start erupting off Ecuador in a few weeks which will hasten the demise of El Nino.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023.

Rationale: A 3 year La Nina started fading in Jan 2023 and was gone by April. 6 Active MJO's produced 6 Kelvin Waves over early to mid 2023 with Kelvin Wave #7 in August building over the West Pacific and the 4th, 5th and 6th backed up off Ecuador now (10/20/23). The CFS model is predicting steady west anomalies from here forward and the leading edge of the low pressure bias moving over California now filling the Pacific. We are now under an El Nino status. We are moving into a period of enhanced storm production (starting late Sept 2023) and beyond, getting intense come late Fall and early Winter. This should result in an above normal level of swells, with swells being longer than normal duration from here forward as El Nino gets a stronger footprint on the atmosphere. The net result is a well above normal number of swells with above normal size and duration (i.e 15 significant class swells perhaps). Last year there were 0 and year before 5 or less.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (2/19) 5 day average winds were strong east over the East equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over East equatorial Pacific and neutral over the Central Pacific and neutral over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (2/20) East anomalies are moderate over the KWGA today. The forecast indicates moderate east anomalies holding and filling the KWGA from this point forward through the end of the model run on 3/7.

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (2/19) The Active Phase of the MJO (wet air/cloudy skies) was exiting the KWGA to the east. The statistic model indicates the Inactive Phase (dry air/clear sky's) moving from the Maritime Continent into the West KWGA on day 5 of the model run then filling it on day 10 and building to strong status on day 15. The dynamic model depicts the same thing but with the Inactive MJO racing east on day 10 of the model run with the Active Phase (wet air/cloudy sky's) moving in from the west then almost taking control of it on day 15 of the model run. .
Phase Diagrams - 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (2/20) The statistical model depicts the Active signal was weak over Africa today. The forecast indicates it is to push east at weak status moving over the East Indian Ocean 15 days out. The dynamic model indicates the same thing.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (2/20) A weak Active MJO pattern (wet air) was weakly developing over the KWGA today. The forecast has the Active Phase (wet air) holding over the KWGA if not slowly building in coverage through the last day of the model run on 3/31.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (2/19) Today no MJO signal was detected in the KWGA but west anomalies were moderate focused over the dateline and filling the KWGA. The forecast indicates west anomalies are to back off some 2/20-2/24 then rebuild holding modestly through 3/5 then fading giving way to weak east anomalies and a weak Inactive Phase taking control 3/4 through the last day of the model run on 3/18.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (2/20) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today the Active Phase of the MJO was all but gone west anomalies blowing at modest strength. A modest Inactive Phase is to start filling the KWGA 2/25 controlling it through 4/24 with a mix of mostly west anomalies with some east anomalies interspersed. The Active Phase is to follow 3/22 through 5/12 with modest west anomalies in control through the end of the model run on 5/19. The low pass filter indicates a broad low pressure bias is established over the KWGA centered at 165W with a third contour line fading on 3/20 but the second contour line holding through the end of the model run. The high pressure bias was over the Maritime Continent 10/2-1/21 faded but returned weakly 2/13 and is to hold through 2/23. It appears a strong El Nino is still in control and is to move east over the next 3 months while dissipating.

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (2/20) Today in the far West Pacific the leading edge of the 30 deg isotherm was retrograding from 180W to 166E. The 29 degree isotherm was retrograding to 177W. The 28 deg isotherm line had raced east at 112W but today was retrograding to 154W. The 24 degree isotherm extended the whole way across the Pacific and was getting shallower in the east at 27m deep (previously 32m). Anomaly wise, warm anomalies at +2 deg C are moving east (or at least shrinking in coverage) fast under the East Pacific starting at 130W (previously 135W). +3 deg anomalies start at 121W (previously 126W, 143W and 172W) and are shrinking in coverage while getting squeezed to the surface by cold water underneath. The warm pool in the east is discharging fast to the surface with no backfilling occurring. There's maybe 2 weeks of warm water left. Colder water extends east now under the entire Pacific to Ecuador undercutting the warm pool preventing the formation of any new Kelvin Waves. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 2/12 indicates a variation on that theme with +1-2 degs anomalies start at 165E and over a large section of the subsurface equatorial Pacific but only reaching down to 100 meters. This is likely just surface warming pushing east driven by trades. 3 deg anomalies from Kevin Wave #7/#8 start at 90W (previously 135W) in pockets likely erupting to the surface and covering east into Ecuador. Cool water was building deep in the far West Pacific down 150m reaching east to 95W while lifting up to 25 meters. The end is near for El Nino. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (2/12) Sea heights over the equator were negative at 0 to -5 cms over the entire area except for one small pocket at 0 to +5 cms at 175W and +10 cms along the immediate coast of Ecuador. The El Nino fueled warm pool is discharge quickly. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (2/12) warm water is racing east with +0.5 degs anomalies starting at 92W (previously 130W) to Ecuador with +1.0 deg anomalies limited to 87W (previously 148W) to Ecuador and moving east. Cool water was moving east reaching to 105W. El Nino is collapsing with cooler water developing over the West Pacific and now moving into the East Pacific. This signals a turn to La Nina.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (2/19) The latest images depict a moderate warm stream from Ecuador uniformly covering the area on the equator west to the dateline but steadily losing density with many cooler (but not cold) pockets interspersed. Heat also extends north up to Southern Baja and south down into North Chile. There is still a clear El Nino signal with the classic El Nino triangle in-place but it is steadily losing density and intensity.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (2/19): A cooling trend was developing over the Galapagos. Warming was in pockets at 115W 130W 150W and 160W. Otherwise temps were neutral. A warming trend that has been well entrenched over the East Pacific since Nov 1 2022 is collapsing.
Hi-res Overview: (2/19) Warmer than normal waters are filling the Equatorial Pacific from Ecuador to the dateline. The classic El Nino tongue of warm water is still present but slowly losing it's density on the equator west to the dateline. Everything still looks like El Nino.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (2/20) (The official OISST temp record runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps are falling at +0.810 after peaking at +1.197 on 2/13 as the last of warm subsurface water gets squeezed upwards. Temps were up from +0.502 on 2/4 and had been toggling in the +0.6 degs range since 12/30, previously up into the +2.0 range in early Nov. .
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (2/20) (OISST runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were rising slightly at +1.255 and had been +1.2 degs or higher since 1/3. Temps had been in the +1.5 range since 11/19-1/12. Weekly OISST are at +1.5 (week of 2/14) +1.7 degs ( week of 2/7), +1.8 degs (week of 1/31). +1.7 (week of 1/24) and 1/17 up at +1.9 degs 1/10 and 1/3. and up at +2.0 (12/27, 12/20 and 12/13) after being at +1.9 (12/6), +2.0 degs (11/29) and +2.1 (week of 11/22 - the highest so far), then +1.9 the week before and +1.8 degs (previous 2 weeks). Monthly Data is +1.72 Oct, 2.02 Nov, 2.02 Dec and +1.87 for Jan. The 3 month ONI is +2.0 ft the 3 month period Nov-Dec-Jan or bare minimal Super El Nino status.

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps started slowly rising to -0.75 degs in Jan 2023 and up to -0.5 degs (above the La Nina threshold) on 2/12. Temps rose to +0.50 degs mid-May and were at +0.9 degs in mid-June, and +1.05 mid July reaching up to +1.30 degs early Aug, +1.6 degs in Sept holding in Oct and , +1.95 in Nov, +2.0 in Dec and +1.85 in Jan and +1.65 in Feb.
Forecast (2/19) - Temps are to fall to +1.5 degs in mid-Feb. Temps are to be falling to +1.0 mid-March and steadily falling from there down to -2.1 degs in Nov 2024. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same thing but with temps falling to -1.55 degs in Nov and leveling off there. According to this version of the model we are past the peak of a strong El Nino.
IRI Consensus Plume: The February 20, 2024 Plume (all models) depicts temps are +1.154 degs today and its the 10th month above the La Nina threshold. Temps to fall steadily from here forward down to +0.749 in March (that's a 3 months running mean) then fading from there down to -0.990 in Oct. The Dynamic model suggest temps falling to -0.988 in Oct and the Statistic down to -0.992.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (2/20) the Daily Index was negative positive at +3.27 today and peaked at -46.54 on 2/9 and has been negative the last 28 days. It was positive and up to +31.61 on 1/6 and had been rising the previous 10 days. It had been effectively neutral 11/20/23 through 1/10/24. This was not consistent with El Nino. Previously it was negative for 29 days (7/14-8/11) with a peak down to -37.30 on 7/25 and negative previously to 7/12 with peaks down to -29.32 on 5/31, -64.63 on 5/24 and -31.31 on 5/12.
The 30 day average was falling at -19.36, Recent max lows were -10.43 on 11/16 and -15.70 on 9/23.
The 90 day average was falling some at -5.38. Recent max lows were -11.14 on 11/17, -11.85 on 10/15.
El Nino is collapsing

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative ever since and the most negative in 2021-2023 since 2011, driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions. There's some sign of it rising in Nov/Dec 2023, but only slightly. In May-July 2021 it was the most negative its been in the -1.80 to -2.04 range since Sept 2012 (-2.99) and then fell to -3.16 in Oct 2021 (the lowest since July 1933) then settled at -2.72 in Nov and Dec 2021. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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