Pacific Storm & Surf Forecast (Stormsurf)

Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt): Seas were 4.5 ft @ 20.0 secs with swell 2.0 ft @ 19.4 secs from 306 degrees. Water temp 75.9 (Barbers Pt), 75.4 (Pearl Harbor 233), NA (Lani 239).
Buoy 187 (Pauwela): Seas were 8.7 ft @ 9.1 secs with swell 1.9 ft @ 20.4 secs from 336 degrees. Water temp 75.4 degs
Buoy 106 (Waimea)/Buoy 202 (Hanalei): Seas were 8.3 ft @ 18.2 secs with swell 3.4 ft @ 19.1 secs from 332 degrees. Water temp 75.0 degs
Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 3.5 ft @ 13.7 secs with swell 2.1 ft @ 13.7 secs from 234 degrees. Wind west at 8-12 kts. Water temperature 59.5 degs, 57.9 (Harvest 071), 59.7 (Topanga 103), 59.2 (Long Beach 215), 59.7 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 59.4 (Del Mar 153), 59.7 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 6.0 ft @ 13.6 secs from 289 degrees. At E. Santa Barbara (46053) swell was 3.0 ft @ 12.9 secs from 274 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 2.0 ft @ 14.5 secs from 258 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 2.4 ft @ 12.8 secs from 265 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 3.2 ft @ 12.8 secs from 280 degrees. Water temperature was 59.4 degrees (Imperial Beach).
Buoy 029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 7.6 ft @ 12.5 secs with swell 6.5 ft @ 12.3 secs from 291 degrees. Wind NE at 6-10 kts (46013) and NE 8-9 kts (1801589). Water temp NA (Bodega Bay 46013), 55.6 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 56.3 (San Francisco 46026), 56.1 (SF Bar 142), 55.8 (1801589) and 58.6 (Monterey Bay 46042).

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Saturday (2/24) in North and Central CA waves were 1-2 ft overhead and lined up and clean with light offshore winds but nearly closed out. Protected breaks were head high to 1 ft overhead and lined up with decent form and clean with no wind but pretty closed out. At Santa Cruz surf was waist high and weakly lined up and clean but very soft with some warble intermixed. In Southern California/Ventura waves were thigh to maybe waist high and lined up with good form and clean but inconsistent. Central Orange County had waves at up to shoulder high and lined up and clean with decent form but pretty soft. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had waves at thigh to maybe waist high and lined up and clean but soft. North San Diego had waves at up to waist high and lined up with decent form and clean conditions but soft. Oahu's North Shore had waves at head high and lined up and clean with decent form but inconsistent. The South Shore was up to waist high on the sets and soft and a bit textured from east trades. The East Shore was getting northwest wrap around swell at head high and chopped from solid easterly trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Saturday (2/24) California was getting the tail end of swell producing from a weak system that developed over the Central Gulf Wed-Thurs (2/22) with 25-26 ft seas aimed east. And Hawaii was getting the leading edge of swell from a short lived gale that formed off Kamchatka on Tues-Wed (2/21) producing 35 ft seas aimed east. A small gale to develop mid-way from Hawaii to CA producing 22 ft seas aimed back at Hawaii on Sat-Sun (2/25). Then things quickly settle down with maybe a gale in the Northern Gulf Tues-Thurs (2/29) producing up to 30 ft seas aimed southeast. And maybe something to develop just east of Japan lifting off the Kuril Islands Tues-Thurs (2/29) with 31-33 ft seas aimed east. But overall it looks like a change towards a Springtime pattern is developing.

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

Overview
Jetstream
On Saturday (2/24) the jet was split from just off Japan over the width of the North Pacific with northern branch pushing east off North Japan tracking east just over the Aleutians with winds 130 kts and no trough indicated offering no support for gale formation. The southern branch was tracking east on the 25N latitude line eventually pushing over Central and Southern CA offering nothing. A cutoff low was circulating off the coast of Central CA perhaps offering some limited potential to support low pressure development. Over the next 72 hours the cutoff low is to be the best hope continuing to circulate well off Southern CA on Sun (2/25) then fading out and gone by Mon (2/26). A small trough was developing off the Kuril Islands on Sat (2/24) tracking northeast and into the Bering Sea late Sun (2/25) likely not offering much. Beyond 72 hours starting Tues (2/27) the jet is to be consolidated over Japan forming a trough just east of there then splitting and continuing split the whole way across the North Pacific with the northern branch just over the Aleutians. But a trough is forecast building in the Northwestern Gulf on Tues (2/27) falling southeast and filling the Gulf on Wed (2/28) being fed by 150 kts winds offering good support for gale development then tracking east. And the trough forecast off Japan on is to be fed by 140 kt winds lifting northeast offering support for gale development into Thurs (2/29) off the Kuril Islands. Something to monitor. But a split pattern is to hold over the bulk of the North Pacific.

Surface Analysis
On Saturday (2/24) swell was impacting California from a small gale previously in the Gulf (see Small Gulf Gale below). Swell was impacting Hawaii from a gale previously off Kamchatka (see Kamchatka Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours a small low pressure system is to develop off California targeting Hawaii somewhat (see California Low Pressure System below).

Small Gulf Gale
On Tues PM (2/20) a gale started developing in the Gulf with 30-35 kts northwest winds and seas building from 21 ft at 44N 157W aimed east. On Wed AM (2/21) northwest winds built in coverage at 30-35 kts with seas 21 ft at 40.5N 150W aimed east. Northwest winds building in the evening at 35-45 kts over a tiny area in the Central Gulf with seas 27 ft at 43.5N 146W aimed southeast. On Thurs AM (2/22) fetch was falling southeast at 35 kts with seas 23 ft at 39.5N 144W aimed southeast. In the evening fetch is to be falling south at 30 kts with seas fading from 21 ft at 35N 141.5W 1000 nmiles off Pt Conception. The gale to dissipate from there. Something to monitor.

North CA; Swell fading Sat AM (2/24) from 5.0 ft @ 12-13 secs early (6.0 ft). Swell Direction: 288-295 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Sat AM (2/24) at 2.4 ft @ 14 secs early (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell fading later in the day. Swell Direction: 293-300 degrees

Kamchatka Gale
On Tues AM (2/20) a small gale developed over the North Kuril Islands producing northwest winds at 35 kts with seas building. In the evening west winds built to 45 kts and seas 25 ft at 48N 162E aimed east. On Wed AM (2/21) west winds held at 45 kts over a solid area aimed east with seas 33 ft at 51N 170.25E aimed east. Fetch barely held in the evening with seas building to 39 ft at 51.75N 173.5E aimed east. The gael dissipated from there. Maybe some small long period swell to reach Hawaii but peak seas were shadowed by the Central Aleutians relative to California.

Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Sat (2/24) building to 3.5 ft @ 17-18 secs later (6.0 ft). Very inconsistent. Swell fading on Sun (2/25) from 3.7 ft @ 16 secs early (5.5 ft). Residuals on Mon (2/26) fading from 2.4 ft @ 13-14 secs early (3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 330 degrees

North CA: Background shadowed energy to arrive on Sun (2/25) building to 2.2 ft @ 17 secs later (3.5 ft). Swell holding on Mon (2/26) at 3.8 ft @ 15 secs (5.5 ft) and very inconsistent. Swell Direction: 308 degrees

California Low Pressure System
Residuals of a Small Gulf Gale reorganized weakly 1000 nmiles west of Pt Conception Fri PM (2/23) producing 35-40 kt northeast winds and seas 19 ft at 35N 135W aimed somewhat at Hawaii. On Sat AM (2/24) northeast winds were 30-35 kts over a decent sized area with seas 20 ft at 34N 139.75W aimed back at Hawaii. In the evening 30-35 kt northeast winds to continue while falling southwest towards Hawaii with seas 22 ft at 29.75N 139.50W aimed southwest at Hawaii. Fetch is to be fading from 25 kts Sun AM (2/25) with seas fading from 20 ft at 26N 138.5W aimed southwest again at Hawaii. Fetch and seas gone after that. Perhaps small northeast windswell to push towards Oahu arriving at sunset Mon (2/26). Something to monitor.

Oahu: Rough data suggests swell arrival on Mon (2/26) building to 5.0 ft @ 12 secs late (6.0 ft). Swell fading some on Tues (2/27) from 4.7 ft @ 11 secs early (5.0 ft). Residuals on Wed (2/28) fading from 4.0 ft @ 8-9 secs (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell Direction: 48 degrees

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Sun AM (2/25) south winds are forecast at 5 kts for North and Central CA early. In the afternoon light south winds continue for North CA at 5 kts and calm winds for Central CA. No precip forecast.
Mon AM (2/26) the low starts easing east with northwest winds 5 kts for North CA and south winds 5-10 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon the Springtime gradient arrives with northwest winds 20 kts for North CA and south winds 10 kts for Central CA. Rain for portions of Cape Mendocino and Pt Conception mid-AM filling in over Central CA in the afternoon and evening and then Southern CA in the evening. Snow developing for the Sierra mid-AM building some in the afternoon and evening.
Tues AM (2/27) northwest winds continue at 20-25 kts for North CA and 20-25 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds are forecast at 15-20 kts for North CA and northwest 20-25 kts for Central CA. Light rain for Central and Southern CA early. Snow fading for the Sierra early.
Wed AM (2/28) northwest winds are forecast at 10 kts for Cape Mendocino early and northwest 10-15 kts for Central CA from Bodega Bay southward. A front approaches in the afternoon with southwest winds 10-15 kts for North CA and southwest winds 15-20 kts for Central CA. Rain for North and Central CA in the afternoon and evening. Solid snow for the Sierra in the afternoon and evening.
Thurs AM (2/29) west winds are forecast at 15 kts for North CA and west at 15-20 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon low pressure is to be over Cape Mendocino with southwest winds 15 kts for North CA and west at 10-15 kts for Central CA. Heavy snow for the Sierra early fading in the evening.
Fri AM (3/1) northwest winds are to be 10 kts for North CA and northwest 10-15 kts for Central CA and west at 15-20 kts for Southern CA. On the afternoon high pressure takes control with northwest winds 20 kts for North CA and 15-20 kts for Central CA and northwest 20 kts for Southern CA. Rain for Central and South CA holding through the day. Snow for higher elevations of the Sierra.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at 135, 148, 121, and 56 inches with a little on 2/26 and most 2/29-3/3.

Freeze Level for Tahoe Ski Resorts: Freeze Levels are to slowly fall from 8.500 ft today falling to 6,500 ft 2/26 and down to 5,500 ft on 2/29 and then 4,500 ft 3/2 holding there.

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Overview
Surface Analysis
No swell of interest coming from the Southern Hemisphere was hitting Hawaii or California.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch is forecast. Swell from a gale previously southeast of New Zealand is tracking northeast (see New Zealand Gale below).

New Zealand Gale
A gale developed southeast of New Zealand on Thurs AM (2/22) producing southwest winds at 40 kts and seas building from 27 ft at 60.5S 172.75E aimed northeast. In the evening southwest winds were 40 kts lifting northeast with seas to 31 ft at 58.5S 179W aimed northeast. The gale lifted northeast Fri AM (2/23) with 35-40 kt southwest winds and seas 30 ft at 54.25S 170.25W aimed northeast. Fetch was fading in the evening from 30-35 kts and seas fading from 29 ft at 50.25S 158.25W aimed northeast. Something to monitor.

Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Fri (3/1) building to 1.7 ft @ 16-17 secs later (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fading on Sat (3/2) from 1.6 ft @ 15 secs (2.5 ft). Swell fading from 1.3 ft @ 13-14 secs early (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 192 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Sun (3/3) building to 1.7 ft @ 16-17 secs later (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell holding at 1.8 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fading 1.6 ft @ 14-15 secs early (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 202 degrees

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

Beyond 72 hours a gale is forecast developing in the Northwestern Gulf Tues AM (2/27) producing northwest winds at 35-40 kts with seas building from 22 ft at 52.5N 154W aimed southeast. In the evening northwest winds build in coverage at 35-40 kts with seas 24 ft at 52N 150W. On Wed AM (2/28) northwest winds build to 35-45 kts and seas 27 ft at 49N 150W aimed southeast. In the evening northwest winds hold at 40-45 kts with seas 30 ft at 50N 147W aimed southeast. More of the same Thurs AM (2/29) with northwest winds 40 kts in the Northern Gulf and seas 28 ft at 50N 148W aimed southeast. The gale to be fading in the evening with northwest winds 35 kts and seas fading from 25 ft over a solid area at 46.25N 147.25W aimed southeast. The gale is to be fading in the Central Gulf Fri AM (3/1) with northwest winds 35 kts and seas 25 ft at 40.75N 143.75W aimed southeast. Something to monitor.

And a gale is forecast developing just east of Japan on Tues AM (2/27) producing 40-45 kt northwest winds and seas building from 27 ft over a small area at 37.25N 153E aimed southeast. In the evening northwest winds to be 45 kts with seas 28 ft over a building area at 40.75N 154.55E aimed southeast. On Wed AM (2/28) fetch is to build at 50 kts from the northwest with seas 33 ft at 41N 157.75E aimed southeast. Fetch is to be fading from 40 kts in the evening with seas 33 ft at 43.75N 166E aimed east. On Thurs AM (2/29) fetch is to be lifting northeast at 40 kts with seas 29 ft at 47.75N 170E and just off the North Kuril Islands aimed east. Fetch and seas fading from there. Something to monitor.

El Nino Collapsing
NINO3.4 SST Anomalies Starting to Fade
9 Kelvin Waves traversed the Pacific from Dec '22 through Dec 2023 erupting off Ecuador. The warm pool created by them is now dissipating fast off Ecuador. But the atmosphere is still in El Nino and will continue from previous momentum through slowly fading. Cold water is getting poised to start erupting off Ecuador in a few weeks which will hasten the demise of El Nino.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023.

Rationale: A 3 year La Nina started fading in Jan 2023 and was gone by April. 6 Active MJO's produced 6 Kelvin Waves over early to mid 2023 with Kelvin Wave #7 in August building over the West Pacific and the 4th, 5th and 6th backed up off Ecuador now (10/20/23). The CFS model is predicting steady west anomalies from here forward and the leading edge of the low pressure bias moving over California now filling the Pacific. We are now under an El Nino status. We are moving into a period of enhanced storm production (starting late Sept 2023) and beyond, getting intense come late Fall and early Winter. This should result in an above normal level of swells, with swells being longer than normal duration from here forward as El Nino gets a stronger footprint on the atmosphere. The net result is a well above normal number of swells with above normal size and duration (i.e 15 significant class swells perhaps). Last year there were 0 and year before 5 or less.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (2/23) 5 day average winds were strong east over the East equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over East equatorial Pacific and neutral over the Central Pacific and weak east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (2/24) East anomalies are moderate over the KWGA today. The forecast indicates moderate east anomalies holding if not building some and filling the KWGA from 2/27 through the end of the model run on 3/11.

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (2/23) A neutral MJO filling the KWGA today. The statistic model indicates a neutral MJO holding unchanged through the end of the model run (day 15). The dynamic model depicts the same thing initially but with an Inactive MJO developing on day 5 filling the KWGA on days 10 and 15 at near strong status.
Phase Diagrams - 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (2/24) The statistical model depicts the Active signal was very weak over then Central Indian Ocean today. The forecast indicates it is to hold unchanged 15 days out. The dynamic model indicates the Active Phase tracking east to the far West Maritime Continent a modest strength 15 days out.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (2/24) A weak Active MJO pattern was over the KWGA today. The Active MJO is to ease east and beyond the KWGA on 3/10 while the Inactive Phase (dry air) builds over the KWGA 3/15 and easing east through 3/30. A weak Active MJO (wet air) is to then move east into the KWGA building in coverage through the last day of the model run on 4/4.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (2/23) Today no MJO signal was detected in the KWGA but west anomalies were fading fast. The forecast indicates east anomalies build on 2/28 with the Inactive Phase taking hold 3/8 continuing through the end of the model run on 3/22.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (2/24) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today the Inactive Phase of the MJO and east anomalies were starting to build over the KWGA. The Inactive Phase is forecast to control the KWGA through 4/29 with mostly weak east anomalies blowing. The Active Phase is to follow 3/19 through 5/6 with modest west anomalies in control. A mixed pattern to follow with mostly weak west anomalies in control through the end of the model run on 5/23. The low pass filter indicates a broad low pressure bias is established over the KWGA centered at 165W with a third contour line fading on 3/17 and a second contour line fading on 4/28. The final contour is to hold through the end of the model run. The high pressure bias was over the Maritime Continent 10/2-1/21 faded but returned weakly 2/13 and is to hold through 2/24. It appears a strong El Nino is still in control and is to move east over the next 3 months while dissipating.

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (2/24) Today in the far West Pacific the leading edge of the 30 deg isotherm was retrograding from 180W to 167E. The 29 degree isotherm was retrograding to 177W. The 28 deg isotherm line had raced east at 112W but today was retrograding to 158W. The 24 degree isotherm extended the whole way across the Pacific and was getting shallower in the east at 25m deep (previously 32m). Anomaly wise, warm anomalies at +2 deg C are moving east (or at least shrinking in coverage) fast under the East Pacific starting at 128W (previously 135W). +3 deg anomalies start at 118W (previously 126W, 143W and 172W) and are shrinking in coverage while getting squeezed to the surface by cold water underneath, reaching up to 37m. The warm pool in the east is discharging fast to the surface with no backfilling occurring. There's maybe 2 weeks of warm water left. Colder water extends east now under the entire Pacific to Ecuador undercutting the warm pool preventing the formation of any new Kelvin Waves. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 2/17 indicates 3 deg anomalies from Kevin Wave #7/#8 start at 90W erupting to the surface and covering east into Ecuador. Cool water was building deep in the far West Pacific down 150m reaching east to 87W and lifting up to 15 meters at 122W poised to erupt to the surface. The end is very near for El Nino. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (2/17) Sea heights over the equator were negative at 0 to -5 cms over the entire area and down to -10 cms at 110W but +5 cms along the immediate coast of Ecuador. The El Nino fueled warm pool is discharge quickly. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (2/17) warm water is racing east with +0.5 degs anomalies starting at 91W into Ecuador with +1.0 deg anomalies limited to 87W (previously 148W) to Ecuador and moving east. Cool water was moving east filling most of the equatorial Pacific reaching to 100W. Basically colder water was taking control. El Nino is collapsing with cooler water developing over the West Pacific and now moving into the East Pacific. This signals a turn to La Nina.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (2/23) The latest images depict a moderate warm stream from Ecuador uniformly covering the area on the equator west to 140W and steadily losing density with many cooler (but not cold) pockets interspersed. Heat also extends north up to Southern Baja and south down into North Chile. There is still a clear El Nino signal with the classic El Nino triangle in-place but it is steadily losing density and intensity.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (2/23): A weak cooling trend was developing on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos then west to 125W. Warming was in pockets at 95W (just south of the equator) and 140W. Otherwise temps were neutral. A warming trend that has been well entrenched over the East Pacific since Nov 1 2022 is collapsing.
Hi-res Overview: (2/23) Warmer than normal waters are filling the Equatorial Pacific from Ecuador to the dateline. The classic El Nino tongue of warm water is still present but slowly losing it's density on the equator west to the dateline. Everything still looks like El Nino.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (2/24) (The official OISST temp record runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps are steady at +1.022 after peaking at +1.197 on 2/13 as the last of warm subsurface water gets squeezed upwards. Temps were up from +0.502 on 2/4 and had been toggling in the +0.6 degs range since 12/30, previously up into the +2.0 range in early Nov. .
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (2/24) (OISST runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were falling slightly at +1.1902 and have been +1.2 degs or higher since 1/3. Temps had been in the +1.5 range since 11/19-1/12. Weekly OISST are at +1.5 (week of 2/14) +1.7 degs ( week of 2/7), +1.8 degs (week of 1/31). +1.7 (week of 1/24) and 1/17 up at +1.9 degs 1/10 and 1/3. and up at +2.0 (12/27, 12/20 and 12/13) after being at +1.9 (12/6), +2.0 degs (11/29) and +2.1 (week of 11/22 - the highest so far), then +1.9 the week before and +1.8 degs (previous 2 weeks). Monthly Data is +1.72 Oct, 2.02 Nov, 2.02 Dec and +1.87 for Jan. The 3 month ONI is +2.0 ft the 3 month period Nov-Dec-Jan or bare minimal Super El Nino status.

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps started slowly rising to -0.75 degs in Jan 2023 and up to -0.5 degs (above the La Nina threshold) on 2/12. Temps rose to +0.50 degs mid-May and were at +0.9 degs in mid-June, and +1.05 mid July reaching up to +1.30 degs early Aug, +1.6 degs in Sept holding in Oct and , +1.95 in Nov, +2.0 in Dec and +1.85 in Jan and +1.65 in Feb.
Forecast (2/24) - Temps are to fall to +1.5 degs in mid-Feb. Temps are to be falling to +1.0 mid-March and steadily falling from there down to +0.5 degs in April and -2.1 degs in Nov 2024. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same thing but with temps falling to -1.55 degs in Nov and leveling off there. According to this version of the model we are past the peak of a strong El Nino.
IRI Consensus Plume: The February 20, 2024 Plume (all models) depicts temps are +1.154 degs today and its the 10th month above the La Nina threshold. Temps to fall steadily from here forward down to +0.749 in March (that's a 3 months running mean) then fading from there down to -0.990 in Oct. The Dynamic model suggest temps falling to -0.988 in Oct and the Statistic down to -0.992.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (2/24) the Daily Index was positive at +2.02 today. It turned positive after a 28 day negative run on 2/19 peaking at -46.54 on 2/9. It was positive and up to +31.61 on 1/6 and had been rising the previous 10 days. It had been effectively neutral 11/20/23 through 1/10/24. This was not consistent with El Nino. Previously it was negative for 29 days (7/14-8/11) with a peak down to -37.30 on 7/25 and negative previously to 7/12 with peaks down to -29.32 on 5/31, -64.63 on 5/24 and -31.31 on 5/12.
The 30 day average was rising at -18.67, Recent max lows were -19.26 on 2/20, -10.43 on 11/16 and -15.70 on 9/23.
The 90 day average was falling -5.23. Recent max lows were -11.14 on 11/17, -11.85 on 10/15.
El Nino is collapsing

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative ever since and the most negative in 2021-2023 since 2011, driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions. There's some sign of it rising in Nov/Dec 2023, but only slightly. In May-July 2021 it was the most negative its been in the -1.80 to -2.04 range since Sept 2012 (-2.99) and then fell to -3.16 in Oct 2021 (the lowest since July 1933) then settled at -2.72 in Nov and Dec 2021. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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