Pacific Storm & Surf Forecast (Stormsurf)

Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt): Seas were 3.5 ft @ 7.1 secs with swell 2.6 ft @ 7.6 secs from 170 degrees. Water temp 76.1 (Barbers Pt), 76.3 (Pearl Harbor 233), NA (Lani 239).
Buoy 187 (Pauwela): Seas were 9.0 ft @ 9.1 secs with swell 6.9 ft @ 9.1 secs from 58 degrees. Water temp 75.0 degs
Buoy 106 (Waimea)/Buoy 202 (Hanalei): Seas were 6.4 ft @ 8.3 secs with swell 4.3 ft @ 8.5 secs from 69 degrees. Water temp 75.2 degs
Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 5.4 ft @ 9.1 secs with swell 3.5 ft @ 8.2 secs from 263 degrees. Wind northwest at 18-21 kts. Water temperature 59.0 degs, 57.7 (Harvest 071), 59.0 (Topanga 103), 58.8 (Long Beach 215), 60.4 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 60.8 (Del Mar 153), 60.4 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 8.1 ft @ 8.6 secs from 292 degrees. At E. Santa Barbara (46053) swell was 3.2 ft @ 8.0 secs from 269 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 3.1 ft @ 9.1 secs from 253 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 2.5 ft @ 7.9 secs from 249 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 5.4 ft @ 8.5 secs from 262 degrees. Water temperature was 60.1 degrees (Imperial Beach).
Buoy 029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 13.6 ft @ 9.9 secs with swell 10.1 ft @ 9.8 secs from 325 degrees. Wind northwest at 25-33 kts (46013) and northwest at 26-31 kts (1801589). Water temp NA (Bodega Bay 46013), 54.9 degs (Pt Reyes 029), NA (San Francisco 46026), 55.6 (SF Bar 142), 55.8 (1801589) and 58.6 (Monterey Bay 46042).

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Thursday (3/7) in North and Central CA waves were head high and somewhat lined up but soft and crumbled and lightly chopped with small whitecaps. Protected breaks were head high and lined up with poor form and warbled if not chopped from northwest wind. At Santa Cruz surf was thigh to waist high and weakly lined up and mused but clean. In Southern California/Ventura waves were thigh high and lined up but pretty warbled though there was no wind nearshore and the water was brown and muddy with whitecaps well off the beach. Central Orange County had waves at waist high and weakly lined up and real clean with no wind and decent form but soft and inconsistent. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had waves at waist high and lined up and clean but soft with alot of warble in the water. North San Diego had waves at waist high and and lined up and clean but with intermixed warble and soft. Oahu's North Shore had waves at waist to maybe chest high and weakly lined up and somewhat clean with not great form and strong trades. The South Shore was thigh high on rare sets and soft but clean. The East Shore was getting east windswell at 1 ft overhead and chopped from strong easterly-northeast trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Thursday (3/7) California and Hawaii were getting locally generated winds and no groundswell other than background minimal southern hemi swell. A small gale started developing over the North Dateline on Tues-Wed (3/6) building Thurs (3/7) while falling southeast into the Northwestern Gulf with 31 ft seas aimed southeast. Small swell to result for mainly the mainland. Another gale to form briefly over the North Dateline region Fri (3/8) producing 43 ft seas aimed east. Another small gale to develop in the Northwestern Gulf on Sat (3/9) falling southeast producing 30 ft seas aimed southeast. And another is to develop west of the dateline Sat (3/9) lifting northeast with 38 ft seas aimed east while tracking through the Gulf into Mon (3/11) with seas fading from 25 ft. And maybe another system to develop off Japan on Wed (3/13). Perhaps a bit of an uptick in swell production for the North Pacific. And down south a storm developed in the Tasman Sea on Sat-Sun (3/3) producing 33-35 ft seas aimed northeast targeting Fiji and Hawaii (indirectly). And a gale developed in the Southeast Pacific on Wed (3/6) with 39 ft seas aimed east. Maybe some sideband swell to radiate northeast. And a gale is forecast under New Zealand on Sun-Mon (3/11) with 33 ft seas aimed east. Summer is trying to get a toehold

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

Overview
Jetstream
On Thursday (3/7) the jet was consolidated off Japan with winds to 170 kts then splitting half way to the dateline with the northern branch tracking north up to the Central Aleutians then falling southeast forming a trough over the Western Gulf offering some support for gale development before lifting northeast some and moving inland over Oregon. The southern branch was tracking east on the 20N latitude line eventually pushing over North Baja offering nothing. Over the next 72 hours starting Fri (3/8) the trough over the Gulf is to push east being fed by 160 kts winds continuing to support gale formation before moving inland over South Oregon on Sat (3/9). Beyond 72 hours the jet is to get better organized with the split point moving to the dateline on Sun (3/10) with winds 170 kts forming a trough offering some support for gale development. The northern branch is to be tracking east on the 45N latitude line but not offering much. The trough west of the dateline is to move east dragging the split point east with it to 170W on Tues (3/12) and then to 160W later on Wed (3/13) offering good support for gale development but then starting to pinch off on Thurs (3/14) not offering support for gale development. But at that time the jet is to be consolidated to 160W with winds to near 180 kts reaching east to the dateline offering support for gale development beyond.

Surface Analysis
On Thursday (3/7) no meaningful swell was hitting Hawaii or California.

Over the next 72 hours swell from a small gale previously in the Northwestern Gulf was moving towards Hawaii and California (see Northwestern Gulf Gale below). And 3 other systems are to develop in close succession in the Western Gulf (see details below).

On Thurs AM (3/7) a gale started building off the Kuril Islands lifting northeast with 40 kt northwest winds and seas building from 20 ft at 40N 160E aimed east. In the evening the gale is to be just south of the Western Aleutians with 45 kt west winds and seas building to 26 ft at 48N 168E aimed east. On Fri AM (3/8) west winds to build to 55 kts just south of the Aleutians with seas 44 ft at 50.5N 172.25E aimed east. Fetch is to be fading in the evening from 40 kts just south of the Central Aleutians with seas fading from 38 ft at 50N 177E aimed east and unshadowed by the southern most Aleutian Islands. Maybe small longer period swell to result for Hawaii and the US West Coast.

On Fri PM (3/8) a new gale is to start building in the Northwestern Gulf with 40 kt northwest winds and seas building. On Sat AM (3/8) the gale is to fall southeast in the Central Gulf with northwest winds 45 kts and seas 29 ft at 47.5N 154W aimed southeast. In the evening the gale is to be well off South Oregon with northwest winds 40 kts and seas 29 ft at 43.5N 145W aimed southeast at CA. On Sun AM (3/10) the gale is to be fading off North Ca with 35 kts northwest wind and seas 26 ft at 42N 137W aimed southeast. The gale is to dissipate a bit off Pt Reyes in the evening with seas fading from 20 ft at 39N 131W aimed east. Swell moving towards CA.

On Sat PM (3/9) yet another gale is to be developing while tracking east just west of the dateline with 50 kt west winds and seas 39 ft at 43.5N 172.5E aimed east. On Sun AM (3/10) the gale is to move over the dateline with 45 kts west winds and seas 34 ft at 46.25N 176W aimed east. In the evening the gael is to be fading in the Northwestern Gulf with 35 kts west winds over a decent sized area and seas 28 ft at 46.75N 168W aimed east. Winds fading Mon AM (3/11) in the Gulf at 30 kts with seas fading from 23 ft at 46N 150W aimed east. Swell possibly targeting the US West Coast.

Northwestern Gulf Gale
A gale started developing west of the Dateline Tues-Wed (3/6) producing 20-25 ft seas aimed east but of no real interest yet. Starting Wed PM (3/6) the gale got better organized with 40-45 kts west winds moving in to the Northwestern Gulf with seas 31 ft at 48.5N 171W aimed east. On Thurs AM (3/7) the gale is to fall southeast with 40 kt northwest winds and seas 32 ft at 46N 164.75W aimed southeast. The gale is to dissipate in the evening with seas fading from 27 ft at 42.5M 158.75W aimed southeast. Small swell possible for Hawaii and CA.

Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Sat (3/9) building to 3.9 ft @ 13-14 secs mid-day (5.0 ft). Swell fading on Sun (3/10) from 3.4 ft @ 12 secs early (4.0 ft). Swell Direction: 320-325 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Sun (3/10) building 4.0 ft @ 15 secs later (6.0 ft) but buried in other swell of undetermined source at 6.2 ft @ 12 secs (7.0 ft). These swell to then get buried by possible stronger Gulf swell beyond. Swell Direction: 290-295 degrees

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Fri AM (3/8) weak high pressure and northwest winds are forecast at 15 kts for North and Central CA early mainly off the coast. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 10 kts for North CA and 10-15 kts for Central CA. No precip forecast.
Sat AM (3/9) low pressure is to try and develop well off the coast with south winds 5-10 kts for Cape Mendocino and northwest 10 kts for the rest of North CA and northwest 10-15 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon a light westerly flow is forecast for North CA at 5 kts and northwest 10 kts for Central CA but up to 15 kts for Big Sur southward. Rain developing for mainly Cape Mendocino early fading in the afternoon.
Sun AM (3/10) a front is to be impacting Cape Mendocino with south winds 30 kts and south winds 10 kts down to the Golden Gate early and northwest winds 5 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon the front moves south to Monterey Bay with southwest winds 15-20 kts for North CA and south winds down to Big Sur at 10-15 kts. Rain for Cape Mendocino early building south to the Golden Gate in the afternoon and down to Morro Bay in the evening. Snow for mainly Tahoe in the evening.
Mon AM (3/11) northwest winds try and develop at 10 kts for North Ca and 10 kts for Central CA but 15 kts from Big Sur southward. In the afternoon south winds are to be 5 kts for North CA and northwest winds 10 kts for Central CA but up to 20 kts for Pt Conception. Rain clearly early mainly for Central CA. Rain redeveloping for most of North CA in the evening. Snow clearing for the Sierra early.
Tues AM (3/12) high pressure and northwest winds to be 10-15 kts for North and Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 10+ kts for North and Central CA and 15 kts for Southern CA. Rain for all of North CA down to Santa Cruz early reaching south to Big Sur mid-AM then clearing. Snow for Tahoe early weakly dusting the Sierra mid-AM then clearing.
Wed AM (3/13) high pressure starts ridging into Oregon producing northwest winds 20 kts for North and Central CA early. Winds building to 20-25 kts in the afternoon for all of North and Central CA. No precip forecast.
Thurs AM (3/14) north winds to be 20 kts for Cape Mendocino early and 15 kts for the rest of North CA and 10-15 kts from the north for Central CA. A light wind flow to set up in the afternoon all locations as high pressure starts moving inland over the Washington.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at 12, 14, 8, and 4 inches with most 3/10-3/12.

Freeze Level for Tahoe Ski Resorts: Freeze Levels building to 7,000 ft today (3/7) rising to 10,000 ft on 3/8 then falling to 6,500 ft 3/9 and 4-5,000 ft 3/10-3/12. After that a big warmup sets up on 3/13 reaching 12.000 ft later in the day and holding for the foreseeable future.

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Overview
Surface Analysis
A small gale developed in the Southeast Pacific on Wed AM (3/6) (see Southeast Pacific Gale below). And a gale developed in the Tasman Sea targeting Hawaii indirectly (see Tasman Sea Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours a gale is forecast developing under New Zealand on Sun AM (3/10) producing southwest winds at 40 kts over a broad area with seas building from 34 ft at 54.25S 164.25E aimed northeast. in the evening southwest winds to fade in coverage from 40-45 kts with seas 34 ft at 60.75S 166.5E aimed northeast. Fetch fading Mon AM (3/11) from 35-40 kts with seas fading from 33 ft at 62.25S 174.75E aimed northeast. Something to monitor.

Southeast Pacific Gale
On Wed AM (3/6) a storm developed in the Central South Pacific producing 5055 kt southwest winds and seas building from 33 ft at 66.75S 145.5W aimed east-northeast. There was no Antarctic Ice of interest given we're still in summer in the Southern Hemi. In the evening winds were fading from 40 kts over a broad area with seas 38 ft at 66.25S 128.75W aimed east-northeast. On Thurs AM (3/7) fetch was fading from 35 kts from the southwest over the east edge of the Southern CA swell window with seas fading from 29-30 ft at 67S 120W aimed east-northeast. Swell mainly for Chile and Peru.

Southern CA: Maybe some background energy arriving late on Thurs (3/14) building to 1.1 ft @ 17-18 secs (2.0 ft). Swell fading on Fri (3/15) from 1.3 ft @ 16-17 secs early (2.0 ft). Swell Direction 175-180 degrees

Tasman Sea Gale
A solid gale moved east into the Tasman Sea from under Tasmania Sat PM (3/2) with 45-50 kts south winds and seas 32 ft at 47S 150E aimed northeast. On Sun AM (3/3) south winds were 45 kts with seas 36 ft at 49S 154.25E aimed northeast. In the evening south winds were fading from 40 kts and seas 34 ft at 44S 159.5E aimed northeast. Fetch was fading while moving under New Zealand on Mon AM (3/4) with seas fading from 32 ft at 42.75S 164.25E aimed northeast. Fetch was obstructed by New Zealand after that. Maybe some small filtered swell to result for Hawaii.

Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Sun late afternoon (3/10) building to 1.1 ft @ 17-18 secs late (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell peaking Mon AM (3/11) at 1.2 ft @ 16-17 secs (2.0 ft). Swell fading Tues AM (3/12) from 1.1 ft @ 15-16 secs (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 215-217 degrees

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

Beyond 72 hours a small gale is forecast developing while moving east over the North Dateline region Tues AM (3/12) producing 40 kt west winds with seas building to 34 ft over a tiny area at 48.25N 170.25W aimed east. In the evening the gale is to track east to the Western Gulf with 40 kt west winds and seas 34 ft at 48.5N 163W aimed east. Fetch is to be fading Wed AM (3/13) in the Northern Gulf with 40 kts west winds and seas 30 ft at 49.5N 154.25W aimed east. The gael to fade out from there.

And another gale is to develop Wed (3/13) just off Japan lifting northeast fast with 45 kt northwest winds Thurs AM (3/14) and seas 33 ft at 49.5N 163.75E aimed east. Something to monitor.

La Nina Arrives But Active MJO Builds Too
NINO3.4 SST Anomalies Starting to Fade
9 Kelvin Waves traversed the Pacific from Dec '22 through Dec 2023 erupting off Ecuador. The warm pool created by them is now dissipating fast off Ecuador with cool water starting to erupt off the Galapagos. But the atmosphere is still in El Nino and will continue from previous momentum though slowly fading through 2024.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023.

Rationale: A 3 year La Nina started fading in Jan 2023 and was gone by April. 6 Active MJO's produced 6 Kelvin Waves over early to mid 2023 with Kelvin Wave #7 in August building over the West Pacific and the 4th, 5th and 6th backed up off Ecuador now (10/20/23). The CFS model is predicting steady west anomalies from here forward and the leading edge of the low pressure bias moving over California now filling the Pacific. We are now under an El Nino status. We are moving into a period of enhanced storm production (starting late Sept 2023) and beyond, getting intense come late Fall and early Winter. This should result in an above normal level of swells, with swells being longer than normal duration from here forward as El Nino gets a stronger footprint on the atmosphere. The net result is a well above normal number of swells with above normal size and duration (i.e 15 significant class swells perhaps). Last year there were 0 and year before 5 or less.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (3/6) 5 day average winds were strong east over the East equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were modest east over East equatorial Pacific and neutral over the Central Pacific and weak east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (3/7) East anomalies are moderate plus over the KWGA today. The forecast indicates moderate east anomalies holding if not building some and filling the KWGA through 3/16. West anomalies are forecast building strong in the far West KWGA starting 3/15 holding through the end of the model run on 3/23 while east anomalies hold over the dateline.

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (3/6) A moderate Inactive MJO (clear sky's) were filling the KWGA today. The statistic model indicates a moderate Active MJO is to build on day 5 of the model run in the far West KWGA and slowly build over and filling the KWGA at strong status on day 15 of the model run. The dynamic model depicts the same thing.
Phase Diagrams - 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (3/7) The statistical model depicts the Active signal was moderate to strong over the West Maritime Continent today. The forecast indicates it is to move to the West Pacific between weak to strong status. The dynamic model indicates the Active Phase tracking east to the West Pacific building to strong status on day 10 of the model run.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (3/7) A strong Active MJO pattern (wet air) was over the KWGA today. The Active MJO is to slowly ease east through the KWGA at strong strength through 3/22 with a strong Inactive MJO (dry air) is to move over the KWGA on 4/1 holding through the end of the model run on 4/16.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (3/6) Today a modest Inactive MJO signal was filling the KWGA with east anomalies in control and forecast holding through 3/17. Then the Active Phase and west anomalies are to take over 3/13 through 4/1, with west anomalies holding through the end of the model run on 4/3.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (3/7) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today the Inactive Phase of the MJO and east anomalies were over the KWGA. The Inactive Phase is forecast to control the KWGA through 3/23 with east anomalies blowing. The Active Phase is to follow 3/16 through 5/10 with modest west anomalies in control. The Inactive Phase to follow 5/2 through the end of the model run on 6/4 but with weak west anomalies in control. The low pass filter indicates a broad low pressure bias is established over the KWGA centered at 165W with a third contour line fading on 3/10 and a second contour line fading on 4/19. The final contour is to hold through the end of the model run. It appears a strong El Nino is still in control and is to move east over the next 3 months while dissipating.

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (3/7) Today in the far West Pacific the leading edge of the 30 deg isotherm was crashing east to 165E from 170E. The 29 degree isotherm was stationary at 173W. The 28 deg isotherm line was expanding east to 142W from 160W. The 24 degree isotherm extended the whole way across the Pacific and was getting shallower in the east at 20m deep. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies at +2 deg C were getting compressed to the surface fast under the East Pacific starting at 122W (previously 135W). +3 deg anomalies were gone. Cold water at -3 degs was filling the East Pacific below 25-50m. The warm pool in the east is discharging fast to the surface with no backfilling occurring. There's maybe 2 weeks of warm water left. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 2/27 indicates +1-2 degs anomalies were at the surface from 25 meters upward in the East Pacific with cold water filling the area below it. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (2/27) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were negative at 0 to -5 cms over the entire area and down to -10 cms at 115W. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (2/27) cold water is mostly filling the Equatorial Pacific other than warm water at +0.5 degs limited to just off the coast of Ecuador. Basically colder water was taking control. El Nino is gone from the subsurface perspective as the ocean turns to La Nina.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (3/6) The latest images depict a moderate warm stream from Ecuador uniformly covering the area on the equator west to 160W and steadily losing density with many cooler pockets interspersed but with a pocket of cold water starting to build between 95-120W. There is still a clear El Nino signal present but with the beginnings of a cold La Nina pocket starting to emerge west of the Galapagos.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (3/6): A solid cooling pocket was building from the Galapagos west to 130W. A warming trend that has been well entrenched over the East Pacific since Nov 1 2022 is collapsing.
Hi-res Overview: (3/6) Warmer than normal waters are filling the Equatorial Pacific from Ecuador to the dateline but cold water was emerging west of the Galapagos. The classic El Nino tongue of warm water is still present but slowly losing it's density on the equator west to the dateline. Everything still looks like El Nino but the beginnings of La Nina are emerging at the surface.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (3/7) (The official OISST temp record runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps are rising at +1.093 after peaking at +1.197 on 2/13 as the last of warm subsurface water gets squeezed upwards. Temps were up from +0.502 on 2/4 and had been toggling in the +0.6 degs range since 12/30, previously up into the +2.0 range in early Nov. .
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (3/7) (OISST runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were steady at +1.208 and have been +1.2 degs or higher since 1/3. Temps had been in the +1.5 range since 11/19-1/12. Weekly OISST are +1.3 (2/28) and +1.5 (weeks of 2/14 & 2/21) +1.7 degs ( week of 2/7), +1.8 degs (week of 1/31). +1.7 (week of 1/24) and 1/17 up at +1.9 degs 1/10 and 1/3. and up at +2.0 (12/27, 12/20 and 12/13) after being at +1.9 (12/6), +2.0 degs (11/29) and +2.1 (week of 11/22 - the highest so far), then +1.9 the week before and +1.8 degs (previous 2 weeks). Monthly Data is +1.72 Oct, +2.02 Nov, +2.02 Dec and +1.82 Jan and +1.56 Feb. The 3 month ONI is +2.0 ft the 3 month period Nov-Dec-Jan or bare minimal Super El Nino status. All others are less than that.

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps started slowly rising to -0.75 degs in Jan 2023 and up to -0.5 degs (above the La Nina threshold) on 2/12. Temps rose to +0.50 degs mid-May and were at +0.9 degs in mid-June, and +1.05 mid July reaching up to +1.30 degs early Au, +1.6 degs in Sept holding in Oct and , +1.95 in Nov, +2.0 in Dec and +1.85 in Jan and +1.65 in Feb.
Forecast (3/6) - Temps to fall to +1.0 mid-March and falling to +0.5 degs in April and -2.4 degs in Nov 2024. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same thing but with temps falling to -1.55 degs in Oct and leveling off there. According to this version of the model we are past the peak of a strong El Nino.
IRI Consensus Plume: The February 20, 2024 Plume (all models) depicts temps are +1.154 degs today and its the 10th month above the La Nina threshold. Temps to fall steadily from here forward down to +0.749 in March (that's a 3 months running mean) then fading from there down to -0.990 in Oct. The Dynamic model suggest temps falling to -0.988 in Oct and the Statistic down to -0.992.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (3/7) the Daily Index was negative at -7.71 today. It turned positive after a 28 day negative run on 2/20 peaking down at -46.54 on 2/9. It was positive and up to +31.61 on 1/6 and had been rising the previous 10 days. It had been effectively neutral 11/20/23 through 1/10/24. This was not consistent with El Nino. Previously it was negative for 29 days (7/14-8/11) with a peak down to -37.30 on 7/25 and negative previously to 7/12 with peaks down to -29.32 on 5/31, -64.63 on 5/24 and -31.31 on 5/12.
The 30 day average was rising at -9.13, Recent max lows were -19.26 on 2/20, -10.43 on 11/16 and -15.70 on 9/23.
The 90 day average was rising at -4.94. Recent max lows were -11.14 on 11/17, -11.85 on 10/15.
El Nino is collapsing

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative ever since and the most negative in 2021-2023 since 2011, driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions. There's some sign of it rising in Nov/Dec 2023, but only slightly. In May-July 2021 it was the most negative its been in the -1.80 to -2.04 range since Sept 2012 (-2.99) and then fell to -3.16 in Oct 2021 (the lowest since July 1933) then settled at -2.72 in Nov and Dec 2021. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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