Pacific Storm & Surf Forecast (Stormsurf)

Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt): Seas were 3.1 ft @ 14.3 secs with swell 1.3 ft @ 14.3 secs from 306 degrees. Water temp 75.7 (Barbers Pt), NA (Pearl Harbor 233), NA (Lani 239).
Buoy 187 (Pauwela): Seas were 7.4 ft @ 9.1 secs with swell 4.8 ft @ 7.9 secs from 67 degrees. Water temp 75.0 degs
Buoy 106 (Waimea)/Buoy 202 (Hanalei): Seas were 5.9 ft @ 14.3 secs with swell 2.6 ft @ 14.8 secs from 333 degrees. Water temp 75.2 degs
Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 2.5 ft @ 13.7 secs with swell 1.0 ft @ 12.9 secs from 281 degrees. Wind north at 2 kts. Water temperature 59.2 degs, 56.3 (Harvest 071), 59.2 (Topanga 103), 59.0 (Long Beach 215), 60.3 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 61.0 (Del Mar 153), 60.8 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 3.6 ft @ 13.0 secs from 303 degrees. At E. Santa Barbara (46053) swell was 1.7 ft @ 10.4 secs from 277 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.0 ft @ 10.4 secs from 259 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.0 ft @ 14.6 secs from 208 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 1.8 ft @ 13.3 secs from 250 degrees. Water temperature was 60.3 degrees (Imperial Beach).
Buoy 029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 4.9 ft @ 12.5 secs with swell 2.8 ft @ 12.8 secs from 292 degrees. Wind south at 14-16 kts (Pt Reyes 46013), south at 10-11 kts (Half Moon Bay 1801589) and east at 10-14 (Monterey Bay 46042). Water temp NA (Bodega Bay 46013), 54.7 degs (Pt Reyes 029), NA (San Francisco 46026), 55.9 (SF Bar 142), 55.9 (1801589) and 58.6 (Monterey Bay 46042).

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Saturday (3/9) in North and Central CA waves were waist to maybe chest high and somewhat lined up but soft and modestly warbled from south wind. Protected breaks were waist high and lined up and weak and soft but fairly clean. At Santa Cruz surf was thigh to waist high and weakly lined up and mushed but real clean. In Southern California/Ventura waves were flat to knee high and lined up and fairly clean but with some intermixed warble coming from local northwest wind. Central Orange County had waves at thigh to waist high and clean and soft but inconsistent. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had waves at thigh high and clean and soft. North San Diego had waves at thigh high on the sets and lined up and clean but soft. Oahu's North Shore had waves at head high on the sets and lined up and sort of clean with not great form and warble running through it from strong northeasterly trades. The South Shore was maybe thigh high on rare sets and soft but clean. The East Shore was getting east windswell at head high and chopped from strong easterly-northeast trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Saturday (3/9) California had no meaningful surf while Hawaii was starting to get some sideband swell from a gale that developed over the North Dateline on Tues-Wed (3/6) building Thurs (3/7) while falling southeast into the Northwestern Gulf with 31 ft seas aimed southeast. Small swell is also radiating east towards California. Another gale formed briefly over the North Dateline region Fri (3/8) producing 41 ft seas aimed east. Another small gale was developing in the Northwestern Gulf on Sat (3/9) falling southeast producing 32 ft seas aimed southeast at the US West Coast. And another was developing west of the dateline Sat (3/9) and forecast to lift northeast with 37 ft seas aimed east then tracking through the Gulf into Mon (3/11) with seas fading from 25 ft. And maybe another system to develop over the dateline on Mon-Wed (3/13) with 36 ft seas aimed east. Perhaps a bit of an uptick in swell production for the North Pacific. Down south a storm developed in the Tasman Sea on Sat-Sun (3/3) producing 33-35 ft seas aimed northeast targeting Fiji and Hawaii (indirectly). And a gale developed in the Southeast Pacific on Wed (3/6) with 39 ft seas aimed east. Maybe some sideband swell to radiate northeast. And a gale is forecast under New Zealand on Sun-Mon (3/11) with 35 ft seas aimed mostly east. Summer is trying to get an early start.

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

Overview
Jetstream
On Saturday (3/9) the jet was consolidated from Japan to the dateline with winds to 180 kts then splitting with the northern branch tracking northeast up to the East Aleutians then falling southeast forming a trough over the Eastern Gulf offering some support for gale development before pushing inland over North CA. The southern branch was tracking east on the 20N latitude line pushing over Hawaii and eventually pushing inland over Central Baja offering nothing. Over the next 72 hours the trough over the Gulf is to push inland over North and Central CA on Sun (3/10) producing weather there. And on Mon -Tues (3/12) a secondary trough is to develop off North CA moving inland again offering support for weather there. Meanwhile back to the west the consolidated jet is to start forming a trough on the dateline later Mon (3/11) pushing east. Beyond 72 hours starting Tues (3/12) the jet is to be consolidated from Japan over the dateline to 170W with winds to 170 kts with a pre-existing trough moving east into the Northwestern Gulf offering much support for gale development. That trough is to track east dragging the split point east with it to 155W on Thurs (3/14) offering good support for gale development but then starting to pinch off later in the day no longer offering support for gale development. At that time a big ridge is to be moving over the US West Coast while another trough starts building off the Kuril Islands moving to the dateline on Fri (3/15) offering support for gale formation before fading there. A that time the jet is to be consolidated to 160W with winds to 160 kts in a pocket over the dateline again starting to dig out a trough offering some support for gale formation. A fairly active patter is setting up focused near the dateline.

Surface Analysis
On Saturday (3/9) swell from a gael previously in the Northwestern Gulf was starting to hit Hawaii and bound for the US west Coast. (see Northwestern Gulf Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours 3 other systems are or have developed in close succession in the Western Gulf and Dateline regions tracking east (see details below - North Dateline Gale, Gulf Gale, and Dateline Gale).

Northwestern Gulf Gale
A gale started developing west of the Dateline Tues-Wed (3/6) producing 20-25 ft seas aimed east but of no real interest yet. Starting Wed PM (3/6) the gale got better organized with 40-45 kts west winds moving in to the Northwestern Gulf with seas 31 ft at 48.5N 171W aimed east. On Thurs AM (3/7) the gale fell southeast with 40 kt northwest winds and seas 32 ft at 46N 164.75W aimed southeast. The gale faded in the evening with 30 kt northwest wind and seas fading from 27 ft at 42.25N 158.75W aimed southeast. Small swell possible for Hawaii and CA.

Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Sat (3/9) building to 4.1 ft @ 13-14 secs mid-day (5.0 ft). Swell fading on Sun (3/10) from 3.6 ft @ 12 secs early (4.0 ft). Swell Direction: 320-325 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Sun (3/10) building 4.7 ft @ 15 secs later (7.0 ft) but buried under local windswell 5.0 ft @ 11-12 secs (6.0 ft). These swells to then get buried by possible stronger Gulf swell beyond. Swell Direction: 290-295 degrees

North Dateline Gale
On Thurs AM (3/7) a gale started building off the Kuril Islands lifting northeast with 40 kt northwest winds and seas building from 25 ft at 40N 165E aimed east. In the evening the gale was just south of the Western Aleutians with 45 kt northwest winds and seas building to 25 ft at 47N 168E aimed east. On Fri AM (3/8) west winds were 50-55 kts just south of the Aleutians with seas 41 ft at 50.75N 172.5E aimed east. Fetch was fading in the evening from 30 kts just south of the Central Aleutians with seas fading from 34 ft at 50N 177E aimed east and unshadowed by the southern most Aleutian Islands. Maybe small longer period swell to result for Hawaii and the US West Coast.

Oahu: Expect small sideband swell arrival on Mon (3/11) building to 1.7 ft @ 17-18 secs later (3.0 ft). Swell building on Tues (3/12) to 2.7 ft @ 15 secs mid-day (4.0 ft). Swell fading on Wed (3/13) from 2.5 ft @ 13 secs (3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 327 degrees

North CA: Expect small swell arriving late on Wed (3/13) at 1-2 ft @ 18-19 secs under cover of darkness. Swell peaking on Thurs (3/14) at 3.0 ft @ 17 secs earl (5.0 ft) and holding. Swell fading and lost beyond. Swell Direction: 308 degrees

Gulf Gale
On Fri PM (3/8) a new gale started building in the Northwestern Gulf with 40 kt northwest winds and seas building. On Sat AM (3/8) the gale was falling southeast through the Central Gulf and east of Hawaii with northwest winds 45 kts and seas 30 ft at 47.25N 153W aimed southeast. In the evening the gale is to be well off the OR-CA border with northwest winds 40 kts and seas 32 ft at 43.5N 143W aimed southeast at CA. On Sun AM (3/10) the gale is to be fading just off North CA with 35 kts northwest wind and seas 27 ft at 42N 135W aimed southeast. The gale is to move inland over North CA in the evening with seas fading from 20 ft at 43N 130W aimed east. Swell moving into CA.

North CA: Rough data suggests swell arrival on Sun late afternoon (3/10) building to 8.4 ft @ 14-15 secs (11 ft). Swell peaking Mon AM (3/11) at 10 ft @ 14-15 secs (14 ft). Swell fading on Tues AM (3/12) from 6.2 ft @ 13-14 secs early (8.0 ft). Swell Direction: 293 degrees

Southern CA: Rough data suggests swell arrival on Mon AM (3/11) peaking late afternoon at 3.4 ft @ 14-15 secs (4.5 ft) at exposed breaks. Swell fading on Tues AM (3/12) from 2.8 ft @ 14 secs early (4.0 ft). Residuals on Wed (3/13) fading and buried in possible Swell Direction: 302 degrees

Dateline Gale
On Sat AM (3/9) yet another gale was developing while tracking east off north Japan with west winds 46 kts and seas building from 34 ft at 39.5N 162.5E aimed east. In the evening the gale is to be developing while tracking east positioned just west of the dateline with 45 kt west winds and seas 37 ft at 43.25N 171E aimed east. On Sun AM (3/10) the gale is to be weakening while moving over the dateline with 40-45 kt west winds and seas 33 ft at 45.5N 179.5W aimed east. In the evening the gale is to be fading in the Northwestern Gulf with 30-35 kt west winds over a decent sized area and seas 25 ft at 45.25N 168.5W aimed east. Winds holding Mon AM (3/11) in the Central Gulf at 35 kts with seas fading from 25 ft at 45N 150W aimed east. Northwesterly fetch lifting northeast in the evening at 35+ kts targeting only the Pacific Northwest with seas 24 ft at 48N 140W aimed east. Swell possibly targeting the US West Coast.

Oahu: Possible swell arrival on Tues (3/12) building to 2.8 ft @ 14 secs later (4.0 ft). Swell peaking early Wed (3/13) at 3.6 ft @ 15 secs (5.5 ft). Swell dissipating Thurs AM (3/14) from 2.5 ft @ 12-13 secs early (3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 320 degrees

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Sun AM (3/10) a front is to be impacting Cape Mendocino with south winds 30-35 kts and south winds 10 kts down to the Golden Gate early and northwest winds 5 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon the front moves south to Monterey Bay with west winds 15 kts for North CA and south winds down to Big Sur at 10-15 kts. Rain for Cape Mendocino early building south to the Golden Gate in the afternoon and down to Morro Bay in the evening. Snow for mainly Tahoe in the evening.
Mon AM (3/11) northwest winds try and develop at 10 kts for North CA and 10 kts for Central CA but 15 kts from Big Sur southward. In the afternoon the next front and south winds are to arrive at 15-20 kts for Cape Mendocino and south winds 10 kts to the Golden Gate and northwest winds 10 kts for most of Central CA but up to 15 kts for Pt Conception. Rain clearing early mainly for Central CA. Rain redeveloping for Cape Mendocino in the afternoon and most of North CA in the evening. Snow clearing for the Sierra early.
Tues AM (3/12) high pressure and northwest winds to be 10-15 kts for North and Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 10-15 kts for North Ca and 15 kts for Central CA and 15 kts for Southern CA. Rain for all of North CA down to Santa Cruz early reaching south to Big Sur mid-AM then clearing. Snow for Tahoe early holding mid-day then then clearing early evening.
Wed AM (3/13) high pressure starts ridging into North CA and Oregon producing northwest winds 20 kts for North and Central CA early. northwest winds building to 20-25 kts in the afternoon for all of North and Central CA. No precip forecast.
Thurs AM (3/14) north winds to be 20-25 kts for Cape Mendocino early and 15 kts for the rest of North CA and 10-15 kts from the north for Central CA. A light northeast windflow to set up in the afternoon for all of California as high pressure starts moving inland over the Washington. No precip forecast.
Fri AM (3/15) a light northwest winds is forecast at 10 kts for North CA and 5 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon a calm wind pattern is forecast all locations.
Sat AM (3/16) a weak pressure pattern and light winds continue for all of California. No change in the afternoon.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at 13, 16, 10, and 2 inches with most 3/10-3/12.

Freeze Level for Tahoe Ski Resorts: Freeze Levels 6.500 ft today (3/9) falling to 5,000 ft 3/10-3/12. After that a warmup starts with freeze level to 7,000 ft on 3/13-3/14 then building to 10.500 ft 3/15 and holding for the foreseeable future. A Springtime pattern looks to be coming.

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Overview
Surface Analysis
A small gale developed in the Southeast Pacific on Wed AM (3/6) (see Southeast Pacific Gale below). And a gale developed in the Tasman Sea targeting Hawaii indirectly (see Tasman Sea Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours a gale is forecast developing under New Zealand on Sun AM (3/10) producing southwest winds at 45 kts over a solid area with seas building from 34 ft at 55.25S 167.25E aimed northeast. In the evening southwest winds to fade in coverage and falling south from 40 kts with seas 34 ft at 61S 169.75E aimed northeast. Fetch fading in coverage Mon AM (3/11) from 40-45 kts with seas fading from 34 ft at 60.75S 178.5E aimed northeast. Something to monitor.

Southeast Pacific Gale
On Wed AM (3/6) a storm developed in the Central South Pacific producing 5055 kt southwest winds and seas building from 33 ft at 66.75S 145.5W aimed east-northeast. There was no Antarctic Ice of interest given we're still in summer in the Southern Hemi. In the evening winds were fading from 40 kts over a broad area with seas 38 ft at 66.25S 128.75W aimed east-northeast. On Thurs AM (3/7) fetch was fading from 35 kts from the southwest over the east edge of the Southern CA swell window with seas fading from 29-30 ft at 67S 120W aimed east-northeast. Swell mainly for Chile and Peru.

Southern CA: Maybe some background energy arriving late on Thurs (3/14) building to 1.1 ft @ 17-18 secs (2.0 ft). Swell fading on Fri (3/15) from 1.3 ft @ 16-17 secs early (2.0 ft). Swell Direction 175-180 degrees

Tasman Sea Gale
A solid gale moved east into the Tasman Sea from under Tasmania Sat PM (3/2) with 45-50 kts south winds and seas 32 ft at 47S 150E aimed northeast. On Sun AM (3/3) south winds were 45 kts with seas 36 ft at 49S 154.25E aimed northeast. In the evening south winds were fading from 40 kts and seas 34 ft at 44S 159.5E aimed northeast. Fetch was fading while moving under New Zealand on Mon AM (3/4) with seas fading from 32 ft at 42.75S 164.25E aimed northeast. Fetch was obstructed by New Zealand after that. Maybe some small filtered swell to result for Hawaii.

Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Sun late afternoon (3/10) building to 1.1 ft @ 17-18 secs late (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell peaking Mon AM (3/11) at 1.2 ft @ 16-17 secs (2.0 ft). Swell fading Tues AM (3/12) from 1.1 ft @ 15-16 secs (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 215-217 degrees

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

Beyond 72 hours a small gale is forecast developing while moving east over the North Dateline region Mon PM (3/11) with 35-40 kts west winds embedded in a broad area of 30 kt west winds with seas 36 ft at 44.5N 179E aimed east. On Tues AM (3/12) the gale is to be over the dateline producing 40 kt west winds with seas 34 ft at 45.5N 174.25W aimed east. In the evening the gale is to rebuild while falling southeast with 35-40 kt northwest winds over a solid area and seas 33 ft at 44.5N 173.75W aimed east. Fetch is to be fading Wed AM (3/13) in the Northwestern Gulf with 30-35 kt northwest winds and seas 30 ft at 40.5N 172W aimed east and southeast at Hawaii. In the evening fetch is to be fading from 30-35 kts aimed southeast with seas 25 ft over a solid area at 40N 167W aimed east and southeast. The gale to fade out from there. Something to monitor.

And another gale is to develop Wed-Thurs (3/14) just off the Kuril Islands lifting northeast fast with 45 kt west winds and seas 32-36 ft roughly at 47.5N 163.75E aimed east. Something to monitor.

La Nina Arrives -
Active MJO Builds Too
NINO3.4 SST Anomalies Starting to Fade
9 Kelvin Waves traversed the Pacific from Dec '22 through Dec 2023 erupting off Ecuador. The warm pool created by them is now dissipating fast off Ecuador with cool water starting to erupt off the Galapagos. But the atmosphere is still in El Nino and will continue from previous momentum though slowly fading through 2024.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023.

Rationale: A 3 year La Nina started fading in Jan 2023 and was gone by April. 6 Active MJO's produced 6 Kelvin Waves over early to mid 2023 with Kelvin Wave #7 in August building over the West Pacific and the 4th, 5th and 6th backed up off Ecuador now (10/20/23). The CFS model is predicting steady west anomalies from here forward and the leading edge of the low pressure bias moving over California now filling the Pacific. We are now under an El Nino status. We are moving into a period of enhanced storm production (starting late Sept 2023) and beyond, getting intense come late Fall and early Winter. This should result in an above normal level of swells, with swells being longer than normal duration from here forward as El Nino gets a stronger footprint on the atmosphere. The net result is a well above normal number of swells with above normal size and duration (i.e 15 significant class swells perhaps). Last year there were 0 and year before 5 or less.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (3/8) 5 day average winds were strong east over the East equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were modest east over East equatorial Pacific and weak west over the Central Pacific and weak east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (3/9) East anomalies are moderate plus over the KWGA today. The forecast indicates strong east anomalies building and filling the KWGA 3/10- 3/17. Then west anomalies are forecast building strong in the far West KWGA starting 3/15 and building east filling the KWGA ar moderate to strong status through the end of the model run on 3/25 while east anomalies move east of the KWGA.

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (3/8) A moderate Inactive MJO (clear sky's) were filling the KWGA today. The statistic model indicates a moderate Active MJO is to build into the West KWGA on day 5 of the model run and slowly build east over and filling the KWGA at strong status on day 15 of the model run. The dynamic model depicts the same thing.
Phase Diagrams - 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (3/9) The statistical model depicts the Active signal was strong over the West Maritime Continent today. The forecast indicates it is to move to the West Pacific varying between weak to strong status. The dynamic model indicates the Active Phase tracking east to the West Pacific building to strong status on day 8 of the model run and slowly weakening to modest strength on day 15 of the model run. .
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (3/9) A strong Active MJO pattern (wet air) was building over the KWGA today. The Active MJO is to slowly ease east through the KWGA at strong strength through 3/24. A strong Inactive MJO (dry air) is to follow moving over the KWGA on 4/3 holding through the end of the model run on 4/18.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (3/8) Today a moderate Inactive MJO signal was filling the KWGA with east anomalies in control and forecast holding through 3/17. Then a solid Active Phase and west anomalies are to take over 3/13 through 4/1. Another solid Inactive Phase and east anomalies are to develop 3/25 holding through the end of the model run on 4/5.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (3/9) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today the Inactive Phase of the MJO and east anomalies were over the KWGA. The Inactive Phase is forecast to control the KWGA through 3/23 with east anomalies blowing. The Active Phase is to follow moving in from the west 3/17 tracking east through 5/15 with modest west anomalies in control. The Inactive Phase to follow 5/2 through the end of the model run on 6/6 but with weak west anomalies in control. The low pass filter indicates a broad low pressure bias is established over the KWGA centered at 165W with a third contour line fading on 3/12 and a second contour line fading on 4/19. The final contour is to hold through the end of the model run. It appears a strong El Nino is to slowly fade over the next 3 months while dissipating.

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (3/9) Today in the far West Pacific the leading edge of the 30 deg isotherm was crashing back to the west to 165E from 170E. The 29 degree isotherm was easing west at 175W. The 28 deg isotherm line was expanding east to 135W from 160W. The 24 degree isotherm extended the whole way across the Pacific and was getting steadily shallower in the east at 20m deep. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies were losing coverage at +2 deg C while getting compressed to the surface fast under the East Pacific starting at 126W (previously 135W). +3 deg anomalies were gone. Cold water at -2 degs was filling the East Pacific below 25-50m. The warm pool in the east is discharging fast to the surface with no backfilling occurring. There's maybe 2 weeks of warm water left. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 3/4 indicates cold water in control from Ecuador west to 120W. The remnant warm surface water from El Nino getting pushed west by trades starting at 120W and points west of there. Cold water was filling the entire equatorial Pacific thermocline below it. La Nina is developing. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (3/4) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were negative at 0 to -5 cms over the entire area and down to -10 cms at 115W. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (3/4) cold water is mostly filling the Equatorial Pacific other than warm water at 0 to +0.5 degs limited to just off the coast of Ecuador. Basically colder water was taking control. El Nino is gone from the subsurface perspective as the ocean turns to La Nina.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (3/8) The latest images depict a moderate warm stream from Ecuador uniformly covering the area on the equator west to 160W but steadily losing density with many cooler pockets interspersed. And a developing pocket of cold water was developing between 95W-130W. There is still an El Nino signal present but now the beginnings of a cold La Nina signal are starting to emerge west of the Galapagos.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (3/8): A solid cooling pocket was building from the Galapagos west to 130W. A warming trend that has been well entrenched over the East Pacific since Nov 1 2022 is collapsing.
Hi-res Overview: (3/8) Warmer than normal waters are filling the Equatorial Pacific from Ecuador to the dateline but cold water was starting to emerge west of the Galapagos. The classic El Nino tongue of warm water is still present but slowly losing it's density on the equator west to the dateline. Everything still looks like El Nino but the beginnings of La Nina are developing at the surface.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (3/9) (The official OISST temp record runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps are rising at +1.161 after peaking at +1.197 on 2/13 as the last of warm subsurface water gets squeezed upwards. Temps were up from +0.502 on 2/4 and had been toggling in the +0.6 degs range since 12/30, previously up into the +2.0 range in early Nov. .
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (3/9) (OISST runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were steady at +1.176 and have been at +1.2 degs or higher since 1/13. Temps had been in the +1.5 range since 11/19-1/12. Weekly OISST are +1.3 (2/28) and +1.5 (weeks of 2/14 & 2/21) +1.7 degs ( week of 2/7), +1.8 degs (week of 1/31). +1.7 (week of 1/24) and 1/17 up at +1.9 degs 1/10 and 1/3. and up at +2.0 (12/27, 12/20 and 12/13) after being at +1.9 (12/6), +2.0 degs (11/29) and +2.1 (week of 11/22 - the highest so far), then +1.9 the week before and +1.8 degs (previous 2 weeks). Monthly Data is +1.72 Oct, +2.02 Nov, +2.02 Dec and +1.82 Jan and +1.56 Feb. The 3 month ONI is +2.0 ft the 3 month period Nov-Dec-Jan or bare minimal Super El Nino status. All others are less than that.

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps started slowly rising to -0.75 degs in Jan 2023 and up to -0.5 degs (above the La Nina threshold) on 2/12. Temps rose to +0.50 degs mid-May and were at +0.9 degs in mid-June, and +1.05 mid July reaching up to +1.30 degs early Au, +1.6 degs in Sept holding in Oct and , +1.95 in Nov, +2.0 in Dec and +1.85 in Jan and +1.65 in Feb.
Forecast (3/8) - Temps to fall to +1.0 mid-March down to +0.5 degs mid-April and -2.4 degs in Nov 2024. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same thing but with temps falling to only -1.65 degs in Oct and leveling off there. According to this version of the model we are past the peak of a strong El Nino.
IRI Consensus Plume: The February 20, 2024 Plume (all models) depicts temps are +1.154 degs today and its the 10th month above the La Nina threshold. Temps to fall steadily from here forward down to +0.749 in March (that's a 3 months running mean) then fading from there down to -0.990 in Oct. The Dynamic model suggest temps falling to -0.988 in Oct and the Statistic down to -0.992.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (3/9) the Daily Index was positive at +5.26 today. It turned mostly positive after a 28 day negative run on 2/20 peaking down at -46.54 on 2/9. It was positive and up to +31.61 on 1/6 and had been rising the previous 10 days. It had been effectively neutral 11/20/23 through 1/10/24. This was not consistent with El Nino. Previously it was negative for 29 days (7/14-8/11) with a peak down to -37.30 on 7/25 and negative previously to 7/12 with peaks down to -29.32 on 5/31, -64.63 on 5/24 and -31.31 on 5/12.
The 30 day average was rising at -6.85, Recent max lows were -19.26 on 2/20, -10.43 on 11/16 and -15.70 on 9/23.
The 90 day average was rising at -4.63. Recent max lows were -11.14 on 11/17, -11.85 on 10/15.
El Nino is collapsing

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative ever since and the most negative in 2021-2023 since 2011, driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions. There's some sign of it rising in Nov/Dec 2023, but only slightly. In May-July 2021 it was the most negative its been in the -1.80 to -2.04 range since Sept 2012 (-2.99) and then fell to -3.16 in Oct 2021 (the lowest since July 1933) then settled at -2.72 in Nov and Dec 2021. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.