Pacific Storm & Surf Forecast (Stormsurf)

Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt): Seas were 4.1 ft @ 15.4 secs with swell 2.5 ft @ 15.2 secs from 297 degrees. Water temp 75.4 (Barbers Pt), NA (Pearl Harbor 233), NA (Lani 239).
Buoy 187 (Pauwela): Seas were 9.2 ft @ 15.4 secs with swell 4.8 ft @ 15.6 secs from 333 degrees. Water temp 74.5 degs
Buoy 106 (Waimea)/Buoy 202 (Hanalei): Seas were 7.0 ft @ 15.4 secs with swell 4.9 ft @ 15.1 secs from 323 degrees. Water temp 74.8 degs
Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 4.6 ft @ 13.7 secs with swell 2.3 ft @ 13.7 secs from 250 degrees. Wind northwest at 8-12 kts. Water temperature 58.5 degs, 57.4 (Harvest 071), 59.5 (Topanga 103), 59.9 (Long Beach 215), 61.0 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 60.6 (Del Mar 153), 60.6 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 7.6 ft @ 13.4 secs from 306 degrees. At E. Santa Barbara (46053) swell was 3.5 ft @ 12.0 secs from 281 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 2.1 ft @ 13.4 secs from 244 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 2.2 ft @ 13.3 secs from 228 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 3.6 ft @ 13.3 secs from 259 degrees. Water temperature was 59.9 degrees (Imperial Beach).
Buoy 029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 10.2 ft @ 18.2 secs with swell 4.5 ft @ 18.3 secs from 304 degrees. Wind northwest at 8-12 kts (Bodega Bay 46013) and northwest at 16-18 kts (Half Moon Bay 1801589) and ESE 6 kts (Monterey Bay (46092). Water temp NA (Bodega Bay 46013), 54.9 degs (Pt Reyes 029), NA (San Francisco 46026), 56.5 (SF Bar 142), 55.9 (1801589) and 56.7 (Monterey Bay 46092).

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Tuesday (3/12) in North and Central CA waves were 2-3 ft overhead and mushed and warbled and chopped and not really rideable. Protected breaks were head high to 1 ft overhead and line dup and closed out and really warbled with small whitecaps. At Santa Cruz surf was head high or so and lined up and clean but with much warble in the water and mushed and uneven. In Southern California/Ventura waves were chest to shoulder high and lined up with decent form and clean but with piles of warble in the water from wind off the coast. Central Orange County had waves at chest high and clean and soft with decent form. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had waves at chest high and clean and lined up but pretty soft with some warble in the water. North San Diego had waves at waist to maybe chest high on the sets and lined up and clean but soft and a but warbled. Oahu's North Shore had waves at up to 2-3 ft overhead on the sets and lined up and fairly clean with ok form and some minimal warble running through it generated by east-northeasterly trades. The South Shore was thigh to waist high on the sets and soft but clean with some easterly texture. The East Shore was getting east windswell at shoulder high and chopped from modest east trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Tuesday (3/12) Hawaii was getting fading sideband swell from a gale that developed over the North Dateline region Fri (3/8) producing 41 ft seas aimed east. And that swell was just hitting California mixing with fading swell from a gale previously in the Northwestern Gulf on Sat (3/9) falling southeast producing 32 ft seas aimed southeast. And another gale developed west of the dateline Sat (3/9) while lifting northeast with 35 ft seas aimed east then tracking through the Gulf into Mon (3/11) with seas fading from 25 ft. And another system developed over the dateline on Mon (3/11) with up to 38 ft seas aimed east and is forecast to fall southeast into Wed (3/13) with 30-32 ft seas targeting Hawaii well. And yet a stronger storm is forecast off the Kuril Islands Wed-Thurs (3/14) with up to 44 ft seas aimed east but never even reaching the dateline. A bit of an uptick in swell production is occurring for the North Pacific. And yet another gale is forecast west of the dateline Sat-Mon (3/18) with 37 ft sea aimed east and making it to the dateline before fading. And more is possible behind that. Down south a storm developed in the Tasman Sea on Sat-Sun (3/3) producing 33-35 ft seas aimed northeast with small swell now fading in Hawaii. And a gale developed in the Southeast Pacific on Wed (3/6) with 39 ft seas aimed east. Small swell is possible for Southern CA. And a gale developed under New Zealand Sun-Mon (3/11) with 35 ft seas aimed mostly east. Summer is trying to get an early start.

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

Overview
Jetstream
On Tuesday (3/12) the jet was consolidated from Japan to a point 600 nmiles north of Hawaii with winds 150-160 kts feeding a trough on the dateline supportive of gale development then splitting with the northern branch tracking northeast up to the Northern Gulf of Alaska then falling down the US West Coast pushing inland over Central CA making weather there and the southern branch diffusing while tracking over Southern Baja. Over the next 72 hours the dateline trough is to push east and starts pinching off over the Western Gulf later Wed (3/13) no longer supporting gale development. But another trough is to build while pushing off the Kuril Islands Wed-Fri (3/15) being fed by 160 kts winds offering good support for gale development then fading. The split point is to hold north of Hawaii. Beyond 72 hours starting Sat (3/16) the jet is to be consolidated running flat east from Japan over the dateline to 160W with winds to 160 kts and somewhat supportive of gale development even though not trough is to be present. And east of there a big ridge is to be moving over the US West Coast. A new trough is to build in that flow on Mon (3/18) over the dateline supportive of gale development but not making any meaningful progress to the east. And of more interest is winds are to start building strong off Japan on Tues (3/19) almost to the dateline at 180-190 kts offering much support for gale development beyond. A fairly active pattern is setting up focused initially west of the dateline.

Surface Analysis
On Tuesday (3/12) swell from a gale previously in the Northwestern Gulf was fading in California (see Gulf Gale below). Swell was also building in Hawaii from a gale previously over the North Dateline region (see North Dateline Gale below). And yet another swell was poised for Hawaii and bound for the US West Coast from a gale previously over the Dateline (see Dateline Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours another gale was developing over the dateline forecast to fall southeast (see Another Dateline Gale below).

Gulf Gale
On Fri PM (3/8) a new gale started building in the Northwestern Gulf with 40 kt northwest winds and seas building. On Sat AM (3/8) the gale was falling southeast through the Central Gulf and east of Hawaii with northwest winds 45 kts and seas 30 ft at 47.25N 153W aimed southeast. In the evening the gale is to be well off the OR-CA border with northwest winds 40 kts and seas 32 ft at 43.5N 143W aimed southeast at CA. On Sun AM (3/10) the gale was fading just off North CA with 35 kts northwest wind and seas 27 ft at 42N 135W aimed southeast. The gale moved inland over North CA in the evening with seas fading from 20 ft at 43N 130W aimed east. Swell moving into CA.

North CA: Swell fading on Tues AM (3/12) from 6.2 ft @ 13-14 secs early (8.0 ft). Swell Direction: 293 degrees

Southern CA: Swell fading on Tues AM (3/12) from 2.8 ft @ 14 secs early (4.0 ft). Residuals on Wed (3/13) fading and buried in possible Swell Direction: 302 degrees

North Dateline Gale
On Thurs AM (3/7) a gale started building off the Kuril Islands lifting northeast with 40 kt northwest winds and seas building from 25 ft at 40N 165E aimed east. In the evening the gale was just south of the Western Aleutians with 45 kt northwest winds and seas building to 25 ft at 47N 168E aimed east. On Fri AM (3/8) west winds were 50-55 kts just south of the Aleutians with seas 41 ft at 50.75N 172.5E aimed east. Fetch was fading in the evening from 30 kts just south of the Central Aleutians with seas fading from 34 ft at 50N 177E aimed east and unshadowed by the southern most Aleutian Islands. Maybe small longer period swell to result for Hawaii and the US West Coast.

Oahu: Swell building on Tues (3/12) to 2.7 ft @ 15 secs mid-day (4.0 ft). Swell fading on Wed (3/13) from 2.5 ft @ 13 secs (3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 327 degrees

North CA: Expect small swell arriving late on Wed (3/13) at 1-2 ft @ 18-19 secs under cover of darkness. Swell peaking on Thurs (3/14) at 3.0 ft @ 17 secs earl (5.0 ft) and holding. Swell fading and lost beyond. Swell Direction: 308 degrees

Dateline Gale
On Sat AM (3/9) yet another gale developed while tracking east off North Japan with west winds 46 kts and seas building from 34 ft at 39.5N 162.5E aimed east. In the evening the gale was tracking east positioned just west of the dateline with 45 kt west winds and seas 35 ft at 42.75N 171.5E aimed east. On Sun AM (3/10) the gale was weakening while moving over the dateline with 40 kt west winds and seas 32 ft at 45.5N 180W aimed east. In the evening the gale was fading in the Northwestern Gulf with 30-35 kt west winds over a decent sized area and seas 25 ft at 46.75N 169.5W aimed east. Winds were holding Mon AM (3/11) in the Central Gulf at 35 kts with seas fading from 25 ft at 45N 148W aimed east. Northwesterly fetch was northeast in the evening at 30-35 kts targeting only the Pacific Northwest with seas 26 ft at 48.5N 138.5W aimed east. Swell possibly targeting the US West Coast.

Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Tues (3/12) building to 2.8 ft @ 14-15 secs later (4.0 ft). Swell peaking early Wed (3/13) at 3.5 ft @ 15 secs (5.0 ft). Swell dissipating Thurs AM (3/14) from 2.3 ft @ 12-13 secs early (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 320 degrees

North CA: expect swell arrival on Wed AM (3/13) building to 7.0 ft @ 14-15 secs early (10 ft ) and pretty raw. Swell fading on Thurs (3/14) from 7.0 ft @ 13 secs (9.0 ft). Swell Direction: 303 degrees

Another Dateline Gale
A small gale started developing while moving east over the North Dateline region Mon AM (3/11) with 45-50 kt northwest winds and seas building from 29 ft at 44N 171E. In the evening fetch pushed east at 45 kts from the west with seas 38 ft at 45N 177.5E aimed east. On Tues AM (3/12) the gale was over the dateline producing 45 kt west winds with seas 33 ft at 44.5N 179.25W aimed east. In the evening the gale is to rebuild while falling southeast with 40 kt northwest winds over a solid area and seas 32 ft at 41.5N 177.5W aimed southeast. Fetch is to be fading Wed AM (3/13) in the Northwestern Gulf with 30-35 kt northwest winds and seas 30 ft at 40N 172W aimed southeast at Hawaii. In the evening fetch is to be fading from 30 kts aimed southeast with seas 27 ft over a solid area at 38N 167W aimed east and southeast. The gale to fade out from there. Swell expected for Hawaii and the US West Coast. Something to monitor.

Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Thurs (3/14) building to 8.7 ft @ 15-16 secs at sunset (13 ft). Swell fading Fri AM (3/15) from 9.4 ft @ 15-16 secs early (14 ft). Swell fading in Sat (3/16) from 6.4 ft @ 13 secs (8.0 ft). residuals on Sun (3/17) fading from 4.0 ft @ 11 secs (4.5 ft). Swell Direction: 325-330 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Sat (3/16) building to 3.5 ft @ 15-16 secs later (5.5 ft). Swell fading on Sun (3/17) from 3.9 ft @ 14-15 secs early (5.5 ft). Residuals on Mon (3/18) fading from 3.4 ft @ 13 secs early (4.0-4.5 ft). Swell Direction: 290-295 degrees

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Wed AM (3/13) high pressure starts ridging into North CA and Oregon producing northwest winds 20-25 kts for North and Central CA early. Northwest winds building to 25 kts in the afternoon for all of North and Central CA. No precip forecast.
Thurs AM (3/14) north winds to be 20-25 kts for Cape Mendocino early and 15-20 kts for the rest of North CA and 10-15 kts from the north for Central CA. A light northeast windflow to set up in the afternoon for all of California as high pressure starts moving inland over the Washington. No precip forecast.
Fri AM (3/15) a light northwest winds is forecast at 5-10 kts for North CA and 5 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon a calm wind pattern is forecast all locations.
Sat AM (3/16) a weak pressure pattern and light winds continue for all of California. No change in the afternoon.
Sun AM (3/17) weak high pressure is to set up off North CA with northwest winds 10 kts early for North and Central CA . In the afternoon northwest winds build to 10 kt solid for all of north and Central CA.
Mon AM (3/18) no change is forecast with northwest winds 10 kts early for all of North and Central CA. no change in the afternoon.
Tues AM (3/19) No change forecast.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at 4, 8, 3, and 3 inches with half today (2/12) and the rest on Wed (2/20).

Freeze Level for Tahoe Ski Resorts: Freeze Levels 5,000 ft today (3/12) and holding into early 3/13. After that a warm up starts with freeze level to 6,500 ft on 3/14 building to 10.000 ft 3/16 and holding into 3/19. Temps slowly falling with freeze level down to 6,800 ft on 3/21. A Springtime pattern looks to be coming.

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Overview
Surface Analysis
A gale developed in the Tasman Sea targeting Hawaii indirectly (see Tasman Sea Gale below). And a small gale developed in the Southeast Pacific on Wed AM (3/6) (see Southeast Pacific Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours swell from a gael that developed under New Zealand is to be radiating northeast weakly (see New Zealand Gale below).

Tasman Sea Gale
A solid gale moved east into the Tasman Sea from under Tasmania Sat PM (3/2) with 45-50 kts south winds and seas 32 ft at 47S 150E aimed northeast. On Sun AM (3/3) south winds were 45 kts with seas 36 ft at 49S 154.25E aimed northeast. In the evening south winds were fading from 40 kts and seas 34 ft at 44S 159.5E aimed northeast. Fetch was fading while moving under New Zealand on Mon AM (3/4) with seas fading from 32 ft at 42.75S 164.25E aimed northeast. Fetch was obstructed by New Zealand after that. Maybe some small filtered swell to result for Hawaii.

Oahu: Swell fading Tues AM (3/12) from 1.1 ft @ 15-16 secs (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 215-217 degrees

Southeast Pacific Gale
On Wed AM (3/6) a storm developed in the Central South Pacific producing 5055 kt southwest winds and seas building from 33 ft at 66.75S 145.5W aimed east-northeast. There was no Antarctic Ice of interest given we're still in summer in the Southern Hemi. In the evening winds were fading from 40 kts over a broad area with seas 38 ft at 66.25S 128.75W aimed east-northeast. On Thurs AM (3/7) fetch was fading from 35 kts from the southwest over the east edge of the Southern CA swell window with seas fading from 29-30 ft at 67S 120W aimed east-northeast. Swell mainly for Chile and Peru.

Southern CA: Maybe some background energy arriving late on Thurs (3/14) building to 1.1 ft @ 17-18 secs (2.0 ft). Swell fading on Fri (3/15) from 1.3 ft @ 16-17 secs early (2.0 ft). Swell Direction 175-180 degrees

New Zealand Gale
A gale developed under New Zealand on Sun AM (3/10) producing southwest winds at 45 kts over a solid area aimed northeast with seas building from 35 ft at 55.25S 167.25E aimed northeast. In the evening southwest winds were fading in coverage from 40-45 kts from the southwest and falling south with seas 35 ft at 61.25S 169.75E aimed northeast. Fetch was fading in coverage Mon AM (3/11) from 40 kts with seas fading from 35 ft at 60.75S 179E aimed northeast. The gale dissipated from there.

Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Sun (3/17) building to 1.1 ft @ 14-15 secs (1.5 ft) early. Swell fading on Mon (3/18) from 1.0 ft @ 13 secs (1.0-1.5 ft). Swell Direction: 195 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Wed (3/20) building to 1.1 ft @ 18 secs midday (2.0 ft). Swell building Thurs (3/21) to 1.3 ft @ 16-17 secs later (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell peaking on Fri (3/22) at 1.6 ft @ 15-16 secs later (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell fading on Sat (3/23) from 1.4 ft @ 14-15 secs early (2.0 ft). Swell fading out on Sun (3/24) from 1.1 ft @ 13-14 secs early (1.5 ft). Swell Direction: 213 moving to 207 degrees

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

Beyond 72 hours a storm is to develop Wed AM (3/13) just off the Southern Kuril Islands lifting northeast fast with 50-55 kt west winds and seas 37 ft at 41.75N 156.75E aimed east. In the evening the storm to track northeast with 50 kt west winds and seas peaking at 44 ft at 45N 158.5E aimed east off the Central Kuril Islands. On Thurs AM (3/14) fetch is to be fading from 40+ kts off the north Kuril Islands with seas fading from 40 ft at 47N 165E aimed east, In the evening the gale is to be dissipating with 30-35 kts west winds and seas 29-30 ft over a broad area at 47N 165.25E aimed east. Something to monitor for Hawaii and the US West Coast.

After that another gale is forecast off North Japan on Sat PM (3/16) producing west winds at 45 kts and seas 34 ft at 40.75N 162.75E aimed east. On Sun AM (3/17) the gale is to track east with 40 kt west winds and seas 37 ft at 37.5N 166.75E aimed east. The gael is to be fading in the evening while approaching the dateline with 30-35 kts west winds over a solid area and seas 33 ft at 38,75N 174.25E aimed east. Fetch dissipating Mon AM (3/18) from 30-35 kts with seas fading from 29 ft on the dateline at 40N 177E aimed east. Something to monitor.

And yet another gale is to start building west of the dateline on Tues (3/19) with 40 kt west winds and seas building. A progressive storm pattern looks to be forecast.

La Nina Arrives -
Active MJO Builds Too
NINO3.4 SST Anomalies Starting to Fade
9 Kelvin Waves traversed the Pacific from Dec '22 through Dec 2023 erupting off Ecuador. The warm pool created by them is now dissipating fast off Ecuador with cool water starting to erupt off the Galapagos. But the atmosphere is still in El Nino and will continue from previous momentum though slowly fading through 2024.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023.

Rationale: A 3 year La Nina started fading in Jan 2023 and was gone by April. 6 Active MJO's produced 6 Kelvin Waves over early to mid 2023 with Kelvin Wave #7 in August building over the West Pacific and the 4th, 5th and 6th backed up off Ecuador now (10/20/23). The CFS model is predicting steady west anomalies from here forward and the leading edge of the low pressure bias moving over California now filling the Pacific. We are now under an El Nino status. We are moving into a period of enhanced storm production (starting late Sept 2023) and beyond, getting intense come late Fall and early Winter. This should result in an above normal level of swells, with swells being longer than normal duration from here forward as El Nino gets a stronger footprint on the atmosphere. The net result is a well above normal number of swells with above normal size and duration (i.e 15 significant class swells perhaps). Last year there were 0 and year before 5 or less.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (3/11) 5 day average winds were strong east over the East equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were modest east over East equatorial Pacific and modest east over the Central Pacific and moderate east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (3/12) East anomalies are strong over the KWGA today. The forecast indicates strong east anomalies holding filling the KWGA into 3/17 then fading and gone by 3/21. And west anomalies are forecast building strong in the far West KWGA starting 3/16 and building east filling the KWGA ar moderate to strong status 3/21 but possibly retracting west again on 3/26.

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (3/11) A moderate Inactive MJO (clear sky's) were moving east and almost east of the KWGA today. The statistic model indicates a moderate Active MJO is to build into the West KWGA on day 5 of the model run and slowly build east over and filling the KWGA at strong status on day 15 of the model run. The dynamic model depicts the same thing.
Phase Diagrams - 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (3/12) The statistical model depicts the Active signal was moderate over the Maritime Continent today. The forecast indicates it is to move to the West Pacific varying between weak to moderate status. The dynamic model indicates the Active Phase tracking east to the West Pacific building to strong status on day 6 of the model run and slowly weakening to modest strength on day 15 of the model run over the East Pacific.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (3/12) A strong Active MJO pattern (wet air) was building over the KWGA today. The Active MJO is to slowly ease east through the KWGA at strong strength through 3/27. A strong Inactive MJO (dry air) is to follow moving over the KWGA on 4/6 tracking east through the end of the model run on 4/21 and almost east of the KWGA then.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (3/11) Today a moderate Inactive MJO signal was filling the KWGA with east anomalies in control and forecast holding through 3/17. Then a solid Active Phase and west anomalies are to take over 3/14 through 4/1. Another solid Inactive Phase and east anomalies are to develop 3/25 building through the end of the model run on 4/8.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (3/12) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today the Inactive Phase of the MJO and east anomalies were over the KWGA. The Inactive Phase is forecast to control the KWGA through 3/27 with east anomalies blowing. The Active Phase is to follow moving in from the west 3/24 tracking east through 5/17 with modest west anomalies in control. The Inactive Phase to follow 5/2 through the end of the model run on 6/9 but with weak west anomalies in control. The low pass filter indicates a broad low pressure bias is established over the KWGA centered at 165W with a third contour line fading on 3/17 and a second contour line fading on 4/22. The final contour is to hold through the end of the model run. It appears a strong El Nino is to slowly fade over the next 3 months while dissipating.

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (3/12) Today in the far West Pacific the leading edge of the 30 deg isotherm had crashed back to the west to 166E from 170E. The 29 degree isotherm was easing west at 175W. The 28 deg isotherm line was expanding east to 125W from 160W. but that was mostly just warm anomalies from off Ecuador being pushed west by trade winds. The 24 degree isotherm extended the whole way across the Pacific and was getting steadily shallower in the east at 20m deep. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies were losing coverage at +2 deg C while getting compressed to the surface fast under the East Pacific between 105W to 124W. Cold water at -2 degs was filling the East Pacific below 25-50m. The warm pool in the east is discharging fast to the surface with no backfilling occurring and then getting pushed west by trade wind. There's maybe 2 weeks of warm water left. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 3/4 indicates cold water in control from Ecuador west to 120W. The remnant warm surface water from El Nino getting pushed west by trades starting at 120W and points west of there. Cold water was filling the entire equatorial Pacific thermocline below it. La Nina is developing. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (3/4) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were negative at 0 to -5 cms over the entire area and -5 to -10 cms from Ecuador west to 135W. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (3/4) cold water is mostly filling the Equatorial Pacific other than warm water at 0 to +0.5 degs limited to just off the coast of Ecuador. Cold water was taking control of the equatorial Pacific. El Nino is gone from the subsurface perspective as the ocean turns to La Nina.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (3/11) The latest images depict a moderate warm stream from Ecuador uniformly covering the area on the equator west to 160W but steadily losing density with many less warm pockets interspersed. And a developing stream of cold water was developing between 100W-130W. There is still an El Nino signal present but now the beginnings of a cold La Nina signal are starting to emerge to the oceans surface west of the Galapagos.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (3/11): A solid cooling pocket was holding from 110W to 130W. New pockets of warming were over the Galapagos to 105W but likely just the last of warm subsurface water being pushed upward by colder water underneath. A warming trend that has been well entrenched over the East Pacific since Nov 1 2022 is collapsing.
Hi-res Overview: (3/11) Warmer than normal waters are filling the Equatorial Pacific from Ecuador to the dateline but cold water was starting to emerge west of the Galapagos. The classic El Nino tongue of warm water is still present but slowly losing it's density on the equator west to the dateline. Everything still looks like El Nino but the beginnings of La Nina are developing at the surface.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (3/12) (The official OISST temp record runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps are steady at +1.024 degs fading from +1.161 after peaking at +1.197 on 2/13 as the last of warm subsurface water gets squeezed upwards. Temps were up from +0.502 on 2/4 and had been toggling in the +0.6 degs range since 12/30, previously up into the +2.0 range in early Nov. .
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (3/12) (OISST runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were falling at +0.975 and had been at +1.2 degs or higher since 1/13. Temps had been in the +1.5 range since 11/19-1/12. Weekly OISST are +1.3 (2/28) and +1.5 (weeks of 2/14 & 2/21) +1.7 degs ( week of 2/7), +1.8 degs (week of 1/31). +1.7 (week of 1/24) and 1/17 up at +1.9 degs 1/10 and 1/3. and up at +2.0 (12/27, 12/20 and 12/13) after being at +1.9 (12/6), +2.0 degs (11/29) and +2.1 (week of 11/22 - the highest so far), then +1.9 the week before and +1.8 degs (previous 2 weeks). Monthly Data is +1.72 Oct, +2.02 Nov, +2.02 Dec and +1.82 Jan and +1.56 Feb. The 3 month ONI is +2.0 ft the 3 month period Nov-Dec-Jan or bare minimal Super El Nino status. All others are less than that.

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps started slowly rising to -0.75 degs in Jan 2023 and up to -0.5 degs (above the La Nina threshold) on 2/12. Temps rose to +0.50 degs mid-May and were at +0.9 degs in mid-June, and +1.05 mid July reaching up to +1.30 degs early Au, +1.6 degs in Sept holding in Oct and , +1.95 in Nov, +2.0 in Dec and +1.85 in Jan and +1.65 in Feb.
Forecast (3/12) - Temps to fall to +0.5 degs mid-April and -2.25 degs in Nov 2024. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same thing but with temps falling to only -1.65 degs in Oct and leveling off there. According to this version of the model we are past the peak of a strong El Nino.
IRI Consensus Plume: The February 20, 2024 Plume (all models) depicts temps are +1.154 degs today and its the 10th month above the La Nina threshold. Temps to fall steadily from here forward down to +0.749 in March (that's a 3 months running mean) then fading from there down to -0.990 in Oct. The Dynamic model suggest temps falling to -0.988 in Oct and the Statistic down to -0.992.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (3/12) the Daily Index was negative at -5.60 today. It turned mostly positive after a 28 day negative run on 2/20 peaking down at -46.54 on 2/9. It was positive and up to +31.61 on 1/6 and had been rising the previous 10 days. It had been effectively neutral 11/20/23 through 1/10/24. This was not consistent with El Nino. Previously it was negative for 29 days (7/14-8/11) with a peak down to -37.30 on 7/25 and negative previously to 7/12 with peaks down to -29.32 on 5/31, -64.63 on 5/24 and -31.31 on 5/12.
The 30 day average was rising at -2.70, Recent max lows were -19.26 on 2/20, -10.43 on 11/16 and -15.70 on 9/23.
The 90 day average was falling some at -4.76. Recent max lows were -11.14 on 11/17, -11.85 on 10/15.
El Nino is collapsing

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative ever since and the most negative in 2021-2023 since 2011, driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions. There's some sign of it rising in Nov/Dec 2023, but only slightly. In May-July 2021 it was the most negative its been in the -1.80 to -2.04 range since Sept 2012 (-2.99) and then fell to -3.16 in Oct 2021 (the lowest since July 1933) then settled at -2.72 in Nov and Dec 2021. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.