Pacific Storm & Surf Forecast (Stormsurf)

Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt)/Buoy 239 (Lani): Seas were 3.3 ft @ 8.0 secs with swell 2.1 ft @ 7.9 secs from 261 degrees. Water temp 76.5 degs (Barbers Pt), 77.9 (Pearl Harbor 233), 77.2 (Lani 239).
Buoy 106 (Waimea): Out of Service Buoy 202 (Hanalei) Out of Service
Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 3.9 ft @ 9.1 secs with swell 2.8 ft @ 8.7 secs from 266 degrees. Wind southeast at 4-6 kts. Water temperature 55.4 degs, 57.6 (Topanga 103), 56.8 degs (Long Beach 215), 57.2 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 57.2 (Del Mar 153), 57.6 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 4.9 ft @ 8.4 secs from 294 degrees. At E. Santa Barbara (46053) swell was 2.2 ft @ 8.7 secs from 267 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 2.5 ft @ 9.4 secs from 253 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 2.4 ft @ 9.8 secs from 260 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 4.0 ft @ 9.2 secs from 270 degrees. Water temperature was 57.7 degrees.
Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay) Out of Service /029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 5.8 ft @ 8.3 secs with swell 4.1 ft @ 9.3 secs from 287 degrees. Wind northwest at 8-12 kts (46026). Water temp 50.7 (Bodega Bay 46013), 50.2 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 51.4 (San Francisco 46026), 52.2 (SF Bar 142), 53.6 (Pt Santa Cruz 254) and NA (Monterey Bay 46042).

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Thursday (3/16) North and Central CA had sets at waist high and clean but lurpy and soft and weak. Protected breaks were waist high on the sets and lightly textured but mostly clean and soft. At Santa Cruz surf was waist high or so and clean but a bit warbled and soft and wonky. In Southern California/Ventura waves were flat to thigh high and soft and very muddy but fairly clean. Central Orange County had sets at waist to chest high coming from the north with modest south winds and warble intermixed. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had waist high sets and somewhat lined up but soft and textured and weak. North San Diego had sets at waist high and textured with intermixed warble and soft. Hawaii's North Shore had sets at waist high on the sets and clean and soft. The South Shore was thigh to waist high and warbled and soft and not really rideable. The East Shore was flat and clean with light south winds.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Thursday (3/16) Hawaii and California were getting no swell of interest. Beyond a small gale is forecast developing Mon-Tues (3/20) in the Eastern Gulf falling southeast targeting CA with seas to 22 ft aimed east. Perhaps another Atmospheric River event is to develop over the coming weekend being fed by a strong Active Phase of the MJO pushing south of California. And a gale is forecast over the Northwestern Gulf on Wed-Thurs (3/23) with up to 27 ft seas aimed southeast.

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

Overview
Jetstream
On Thursday (3/16) the jetstream was split over Japan with most energy pushing east across the North Pacific on roughly the 25N latitude line before lifting northeast just north of Hawaii then moving east towards Central CA but not reaching it yet. The northern branch was pushing northeast inland over Russia and then through the North Bering Sea before falling southeast over the Gulf of Alaska and briefly merging with the southern branch north of Hawaii before veering off northeast again. Winds were up to 140 kts mainly where the two branches briefly joined north of Hawaii. Over the next 72 hours no real change is forecast other than the area where the north and southern branches joined, with the join point holding into Sat (3/18) and winds building to 180 kts with the leading edge of those winds starting to impact North and Central CA on Saturday evening. Perhaps some support for gale development is possible there. Beyond 72 hours more of the same is forecast with the jetstream starting to form a trough Monday (3/20) off and moving into California Tues (3/21) supporting gale development then falling south down over the state into Wed (3/22) likely producing weather there. Back to the west on Wed (3/22) the jet is to become pretty well split but with most energy in the northern branch with it tracking east on the 45N latitude line with winds 130-140 kts with a trough on the dateline and another developing in the Northeastern Gulf poised to impact and reinforce the existing AR pattern over California on Thurs (3/23).

Surface Analysis
On Thursday (3/16) no swell producing weather systems have occurred resulting in no swell in the water.

Tropical Update
No tropical systems of interest are being monitored at this time.

Fri AM (3/17) winds to be west to northwest 5 kts for North CA early and north to northwest 5 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon winds to be calm to light southeast for North CA and northwest 5 kts for Central CA. No precip forecast.
Sat AM (3/18) calm to light southeast winds at 5 kts are forecast early for North CA and northeast 5 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon south winds are forecast at 5 kts for North and Central CA. No precip forecast.
Sun AM (3/19) south winds are forecast at 5 kts for North and Central CA early. No change in the afternoon with weak low pressure just off North CA. Light rain is forecast for North and Central CA early clearing in Central CA late afternoon and starting to clear in North CA. Light snow for Tahoe mid-AM building over the Sierra in the afternoon.
Mon AM (3/20) low pressure is to start impacting North California with south winds 20 kts for Cape Mendocino and southwest winds 10 kts down to the Golden Gate. Southwest winds to be 5-10 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 5 kts for North CA and south 5-10 kts for Central CA. Rain for all of North early moving south to Santa Barbara County in the afternoon fading from the north in the evening. Snow building to strong status mid AM over the Sierra fading slowly overnight. Low pressure is to start building well off the coast.
Tues AM (3/21) the low is to be moving onshore with east winds are forecast at 5 kts for North CA early and southwest winds 15 kts for Central CA and 15 kts southwest winds for Southern CA. In the afternoon north winds are to be 15-20 kts for North CA and west 25 kts for Central CA and west at 15-20 kts for Southern CA. Rain forecast for Central and Southern CA early building northwards and covering the entire state in the afternoon and evening. Heavy snow for the Sierra early continuing through the day and evening.
Wed AM (3/22) high pressure is to be starting to move onshore with northwest winds 20-25 kts for North and Central CA and northwest 15 kts for Southern CA. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 15 kts for North CA and 15-20 kts for Central CA and 15 kts for Southern CA. Rain for Pt Arena southward including Southern CA early slowly and steadily fading through the day and dry by evening. Snow fading through the day for the Sierra.
Thurs AM (3/23) northwest winds to be 10-15 kts for North and Central CA. In the afternoon another front is forecast impacting Cape Mendocino with south winds 20-25 kts there and south winds 10 kts down to the Golden Gate and northwest 10 kts for Central CA. No precip forecast.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at 52, 59, 54, and 38 inches with steady accumulation 3/19-3/22 then redeveloping late on 3/23.

Freezing level for Lake Tahoe 7,000 ft steady through 3/18 then falling to 5,500 ft on 3/19 rising briefly to 6,300 ft on 3/20 before falling from 5,000 ft on 3/21 and at 4,000 ft or lower beyond.

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Overview
Surface Analysis
No swell producing fetch has occurred with no swell in the water or radiating towards the coast.

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

Beyond 72 hours perhaps a gale is to develop in the Eastern Gulf on Mon AM (3/20) producing 30 kt northwest winds over a tiny area with seas building. In the evening the gale is to be falling southeast and building with 35 kts northwest winds and seas 23 ft at 45N 146W well off Oregon. Fetch is to be falling southeast Tues AM (3/21) at 30-35 kts off North and Central CA with seas 19 ft at 39N 142W aimed southeast at Central CA. In the evening fetch is to be fading from 30 kts from the northwest off Central CA with 20 ft seas at 35N 130W aimed southeast. Something to monitor.

Also on Tues PM (3/21) fetch is to start building over the Northwestern Gulf at 35-40 kts from the northwest with seas building from 19-20 ft at 47N 163W aimed southeast. On Wed AM (3/22) northwest winds are to build in coverage at 35-40 kts with seas 24 ft at 50N 160W aimed southeast. In the evening northwest winds to be 40-45 kts over the Northern Gulf with seas n25 ft at 50N 155W aimed southeast. On Thurs AM (3/23) northwest winds are to be falling southeast some in the Northern Gulf at 40 kts with seas 26 ft at 49N 144.75W aimed southeast. Something to monitor. This is the first semi-real swell producing system on the charts in weeks.

Major Global Weather Pattern Change Occurring - El Nino Developing
Kelvin Wave #2 in Flight - Active MJO #3 Strong - Sea Surface Temps Rising Fast
1 Kelvin Wave traversed the Pacific in Dec '22 with Kelvin Wave #2 in-flight and Kevin Wave #3 developing now. And Westerly Winds are fully established filling the KWGA and forecast filling the Pacific over the next month. And Sea Surface Temperatures are warming to neutral. The last link in the chain is to see the SOI falling (which it is showing preliminary signs of doing). The outlook is turning optimistic.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. A slow dissolving of La Nina started in March 2021 with 2 Kelvin Waves sweeping east and arriving over the Galapagos in June. Weak warming set up over the equator with no cool waters present. NOAA declared La Nina dead. But cold water returned in July 2021 and a second pulse of La Nina developed through the Winter of 2022 and is continuing today, though possibly weaker with its foundation appearing to be in decline.

Rationale: It was assumed that the moderate La Nina from the Winter of 2020/2021 was on the wane and that a return to neutral ENSO state would set up over the Pacific Basin through the summer of 2021. But La Nina made a strong return by the end of Sept much like what the CFS model suggested would happen and a full double dip pattern took hold through the Winter of 21/22. But a quick fade is forecast as we move into late December 2022 with the CFS predicting a return to a neutral wind anomaly pattern and the low pressure bias making headway in to the KWGA in early Jan. Still it will take some time for the atmosphere to fully respond, resulting in a less than normal swell production forecast especially for Fall into early Winter 2022. But by later in Jan or early Feb 2023 a return to a more normal pattern might take hold. As a result a significantly reduced number of storm days and storm intensity is expected Oct 22-Jan 23, resulting in a below normal level of swells, with swell being below normal duration and period. But by Feb 2023, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start improving as La Nina fades out. The net result is we're currently thinking a near normal number of swells with normal size and duration is to result, but all focused sometime after Jan 2023. The swell pattern will be below normal before Jan and above normal after Jan 23 with the average of the two being 'normal'. Of course this is all highly speculative at this early date.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (3/15) 5 day average winds were moderate from the east over the East equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were moderate west over the East equatorial Pacific and neutral over the Central Pacific and moderate east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (3/16) Modest to moderate east anomalies filled the KWGA today. The 7 day forecast has no change over the KWGA through the end of the model run on 3/23. Strong west anomalies were today fading south of California and are to be gone by 3/20.

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (3/15) A weak Active MJO signal was indicated moving almost east of the KWGA today with a solid Inactive Phase of the MJO building over the KWGA. The statistical model indicates the Active MJO signal east of the KWGA by day 5 of the model run with a strong Inactive Phase taking over and in control through day 15 of the model run. The dynamic model indicates the same thing but with the Inactive Phase dissolving on day 10 and gone by day 15.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (3/16) The statistical model depicts the Active signal was strong over the East Atlantic and is to move east to the East Indian Ocean 15 days out and modest in strength. The dynamic model indicates the same thing but the Active Phase fading to weak status over the Indian Ocean 7 days then perhaps moving back to the West PAcific and very weak 15 days out.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (3/16) A moderate Inactive signal (dry air) was filling the East equatorial Pacific today. The forecast has the Inactive signal (dry air) traversing the KWGA quickly through 3/21 then into to Ecuador on 3/31. A modest Active Phase of the MJO (wet air) is to start moving over the KWGA 3/26 and filling the bulk of the Pacific by 4/5 easing to Ecuador on 4/20 with the Inactive Phase of the MJO developing over the KWGA at the end of the model run on 4/25.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (3/15) The Inactive Phase of the MJO was building over the KWGA today with modest east anomalies filling the KWGA. The Active Phase of the MJO was over the far East Equatorial Pacific and fading. The forecast indicates the Inactive Phase of the MJO is to traverse the KWGA through the end of the model run on 4/12 with modest to moderate east anomalies filling the KWGA. The Active Phase of the MJO and it's west anomalies are to start building over the Western KWGA on 3/28 filling nearly half the KWGA at the end of the model run on 4/12.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (3/16) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today the Active Phase of the MJO was fading over the dateline while tracking east. East anomalies at modest strength were developing over the entirety of the KWGA. The forecast indicates the Active Phase of the MJO is to track east and out of the KWGA by 3/18 with the Inactive Phase of the MJO moving fully over the KWGA and holding to 4/7 with east anomalies at modest strength holding through 3/23 then fading to neutral or even weak westerly even as the Inactive Phase holds. West anomalies to redevelop fully by 3/23 and building steadily from there. By 4/15 solid west anomalies are to be in control over the KWGA and most of the Pacific and if anything building to strong status 4/23 and building steadily from there through the end of the model run on 6/13. Sure looks like a major El Nino is developing. The shift to El Nino started on 2/15. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias with 1 contour line centered at 150W with its western perimeter at 175E today and moving east fast and east of the KWGA by 3/27. A broad double contour low pressure bias is established centered over the West Maritime Continent at 120E with it's leading edge creeping east to 150E today (it started pushing east on 2/15). A hard push east is forecast from today moving forward and on the dateline 4/17 filling the KWGA and then filling the most of the Pacific at the end of the model run centered at 175E. This is all a big deal and is being repeated in some form consistently from one run of the model to the next since Oct 2022. It appears that the high pressure lockdown of the KWGA is in total collapse and over with no return in sight. Finally!

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (3/16) Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was present at 160E. The 28 deg isotherm line was easing east from 170E but was now at 178E. The 26 degree isotherm has now pushed the whole way across the Pacific and building in the east to 27 degs. This is a big deal and the first time this has happened in years. The 24 deg isotherm was pushing east into Ecuador and building in thickness. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies at +4 deg C were in a broad pocket with the leading edge at 145W and recharging and connected to warm water from a previous Kelvin Wave #1 off Ecuador. A pocket of negative anomalies at -2 deg C were at 138W down 100m under the warm water flow. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 3/9 indicates a huge very warm ball of 5+ degs anomalies stretching from the far West Pacific and reaching east upwards across the Pacific. A weak pocket of cool anomalies were at 143W, the break between Kelvin Wave #2 and building Kelvin Wave #3 further west. The cool upwelling event that has been in play since July is gone. El Nino is developing. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (3/9) Sea heights were very positive from the far West equatorial Pacific to 160W and +0-5 cms over the remainder of the Equatorial Pacific reaching east to Ecuador with pockets of +5 cms anomalies between Ecuador and 130W. This means no cool water was at depth. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram cool anomalies are gone no longer in the Equatorial Pacific. Warm water continues building in intensity and coverage in the West to 150W at +2.25 degs with a second pocket between 98W to 135W effectively filling the Equatorial Pacific.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (3/15) The latest images depict a building warm water tongue extending west along the equator from Ecuador to 142W (results of Kelvin Wave #1) and building in intensity. And warmer than normal temps were present along the coasts of Chile and Peru and over the entirety of the deep South Pacific. A tiny patch of barely cool water was collapsing on the equator extending west from 155W, the last remnants of La Nina. .
Hi-res 7 day Trend (3/15): A massive and building pool of warming water was locked well off the coasts of Peru and Chile and far stronger from Ecuador west over the equatorial Pacific to 160W reaching north to 30N and south to 30S. This pool remains at impressive status today. A warming trend is well entrenched over the East Pacific since Nov 1 with no cooling waters over the equatorial East Pacific since 12/15.
Hi-res Overview: (3/15) Warming waters are filling the East Pacific off Chile, Peru and Ecuador. Cool waters were on the equator limited to one small pocket from about 160W to 165E and collapsing rapidly and almost indiscernible. There no legitimate sign of La Nina on the oceans surface. The east equatorial Pacific is finally and steadily warming.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (3/16) (These temps are biased high by about 0.2 degs compared to official sources). Today's temps were rising to +0.668 degs today from +0.462 (since 2/28) but had reached as high as +1.076 on 2/19 and were previously steady at +0.848 since 2/7. Previously they started steadily rising 11/13 when they were around -1.5 degs C.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (3/16) (These temps are biased high by about 0.2 degs). Temps were rising to -0.023 today. Temps had previously risen to -0.402 on 2/23. Temps rose above the La Nina threshold (-0.5 degs) on 2/22 and had been rising slowly since 2/12 when they were about -1.0 degs C. Then had been in the -1.0 deg range since at least Nov 2022.

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data
Previous - Temps rose in early Nov 2020 after bottoming out at -1.25 degs, up to -0.01 degs in mid-June 2021 then fading to -1.05 degs in mid-Nov then rebuilding to -0.7 in mid Feb 2022 then fading to -1.1 degs in May before starting an upward climb peaking in mid-June at -0.65 degs and mid July at -0.55 degs. A steady decline set in after that falling to -1.00 degs in Aug and Sept rising to -0.8 degs mid Oct then falling to -1.0 in Nov but then slowly rising to -0.75 degs in Jan 2023 and up to -0.5 degs above the La Nina threshold on 2/12.
Forecast (3/16) - Temps are to move to neutral (0.0 degs) any day now and up to +0.90 degs in July and +1.50 degs in Oct and solidly into El Nino territory. The PDF Corrected forecast suggests temps are to hit neutral (0.0 degs) any day now and rising to +0.70 degs in July and +1.35 degs in Oct. According to this version of the model we are building into ENSO neutral in Spring and into El Nino in Summer.
IRI Consensus Plume: The Feb 19, 2023 Plume depicts temps are -0.228 degs today and above the La nina threshold. Temps to rise steadily from here forward to -0.018 degs in March rising to +0.758 in July and +0.759 in Sept. This is consistent with the previous run. This model suggests a transition to ENSO neutral if not weak El Nino. This model is in line with the CFS model.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (3/16) the Daily Index was falling at -12.06 and has been negative the last 6 days. It fell to -17.44 on 2/22, the beginning of a change from which no return seems likely. It was up to +21.85 on 2/10 and +55.74 on 12/22 and were in the +20 range the previous 22 days.
The 30 day average was falling to +1.89 (lagging indicator driven by the Inactive Phase of the MJO) after falling to +4.18 on 11/27 and peaking at +21.57 (10/16) after supposedly peaking at +19.66 on 9/28. It was down to +6.89 on 7/29. It peaked at +20.34 (5/12) the highest in a year and beating last years high of +19.51 (1/14).
The 90 day average was falling at +11.84 after peaking at +14.63 on 2/20, +15.61 on 10/25 and +12.92 on 8/11 and that after peaking at +18.40 (7/2) beating it's previous peak of +16.86 (5/31), the highest in a year. It previously peaked at +9.80 (9/21) after falling to it's lowest point in a year at +1.06 (6/9). The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 (2/23/21 - clearly indicative of La Nina then). This index is a lagging indicator but suggests that the Active Phase occurring now is starting to drive the index down, hopefully with no upward trend in sight for at least a year.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative ever since, driven by recent La Nina conditions. In May-July 2021 it was the most negative its been in the -1.80 to -2.04 range since Sept 2012 (-2.99) and then fell to -3.16 in Oct 2021 (the lowest since July 1933) then settled at -2.72 in Nov and Dec 2021. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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