Pacific Storm & Surf Forecast (Stormsurf)

Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt): Seas were 3.6 ft @ 11.1 secs with swell 2.8 ft @ 10.0 secs from 307 degrees. Water temp 75.2 (Barbers Pt), 74.3 (Pearl Harbor 233), NA (Lani 239).
Buoy 187 (Pauwela): Seas were 6.4 ft @ 11.1 secs with swell 4.5 ft @ 10.2 secs from 259 degrees. Water temp 75.7 degs
Buoy 106 (Waimea)/Buoy 202 (Hanalei): Seas were 6.6 ft @ 11.8 secs with swell 3.6 ft @ 11.6 secs from 321 degrees. Water temp 74.7 degs
Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 3.0 ft @ 14.7 secs with swell 2.0 ft @ 15.1 secs from 188 degrees. Wind northeast at 6 kts. Water temperature 58.1 degs, 57.9 (Harvest 071), 58.8 (Topanga 103), 59.2 (Long Beach 215), 59.9 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 60.3 (Del Mar 153), 60.6 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 4.0 ft @ 14.0 secs from 269 degrees. At E. Santa Barbara (46053) swell was 2.3 ft @ 15.2 secs from 282 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.6 ft @ 15.6 secs from 243 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.9 ft @ 14.8 secs from 210 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 2.5 ft @ 15.0 secs from 247 degrees. Water temperature was 59.9 degrees (Imperial Beach).
Buoy 029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 6.9 ft @ 16.7 secs with swell 5.2 ft @ 17.0 secs from 295 degrees. Wind northwest at 12-16 kts (Bodega Bay 46013) and northwest at 7-8 kts (Half Moon Bay 1801589) and NNE at 4 kts (Monterey Bay (46092). Water temp NA (Bodega Bay 46013), 55.0 degs (Pt Reyes 029), NA (San Francisco 46026), 55.8 (SF Bar 142), 55.9 (1801589) and 55.8 (Monterey Bay 46092).

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Sunday (3/17) in North and Central CA waves were head high and pretty hollow with clean conditions. Protected breaks were waist high and fairly lined up with clean conditions. At Santa Cruz surf was chest to near head high and lined up and real clean with good form. In Southern California/Ventura waves were waist to chest high and lined up with decent form and clean. Central Orange County had waves at chest high and lined up with modest form and clean but soft. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had waves at waist high and lined up and super clean with decent form. North San Diego had waves at waist to chest high on the sets and lined up and real clean with decent form but a little closed out. Oahu's North Shore had waves at chest high on the sets and semi lined up and clean with modest form. The South Shore was thigh to maybe waist high on the sets and soft but clean. The East Shore was getting minimal east windswell at waist high and chopped from moderate east-northeast winds.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Sunday (3/17) Hawaii and California were getting fading swell from a gale that developed over the dateline on Mon (3/11) with up to 38 ft seas aimed east then fell southeast into Wed (3/13) with 30-32 ft seas. A progressive series of gales are starting off Japan likely fed by an Active MJO. First up a storm developed off the Kuril Islands Wed-Thurs (3/14) with up to 38 ft seas aimed east but never even reached the dateline. Small swell possible for Hawaii and CA (north Japan Gale). Another gale developed west of the dateline Sat-Mon (3/18) with 37 ft sea aimed east and making it to the dateline before fading (Second Japan Gale). And another is forecast behind that on the same track Mon-Wed (3/20) but with only 30 ft seas aimed east (Third Japan Gale). And another is forecast behind that Wed-Sat (3/23) with 37 ft seas aimed east. And yet another is possible on the dateline after that. Down south a gale developed under New Zealand Sun-Mon (3/11) with 35 ft seas aimed mostly east. Summer is trying to get an early start but Winter is not done with us yet.

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

Overview
Jetstream
On Sunday (3/17) the jet was reasonably consolidated from Japan to the dateline with winds 150 kts feeding a trough half way between Japan and the Dateline supportive of gale development. East of there the jet split at 155W with the northern branch weakly tracking north up into North Canada offering nothing. Over the next 72 hours winds to start building over Japan reaching to the dateline on Wed (3/20) with winds 190 kts starting to carve out a trough north of it offering great support for gale development. But the jet is to be split east of the dateline offering nothing. Beyond 72 hours winds in that same portion of the jet are to build to 200 kts on Fri (3/22) with 2 troughs north of it offering support for gale formation and then that portion of the jet is to start moving east into Sun (2/24) with winds 160 kts and the split point moving onshore over North California likely bringing weather with it. A fairly active pattern is setting up focused initially west of the dateline and likely fueled by the MJO and steadily moving east.

Surface Analysis
On Sunday (3/17) swell was fading in Hawaii and the US West Coast from a gale that developed over the dateline while falling southeast (see Another Dateline Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours one swell and a series of gale are forecast pushing off Japan reaching to the dateline but not further (see North Japan Gale, below).

North Japan Gale
On Tues PM (3/12) a gale started building off North Japan with 45 kt west winds and seas building. On Wed AM (3/13) the gale built to storm status with 55 kt west winds off the Southern Kuril Islands with seas building from 35 ft at 41.75N 156.5E aimed east. in the evening 50 kts winds were lifting northeast with seas 38 ft at 45.75N 161.75E aimed east. On Thurs AM (3/14) winds were still pushing west off the north Kuril Islands at 40 kts and seas 34 ft at 47N 164.5E aimed east. in the evening west fetch was fading from 35 kts with seas 26 ft at 47N 164.25e aimed east. The gael faded out after that.

Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Sun (3/17) building to 2.8 ft @ 16-17 secs later (3.5 ft) and inconsistent. Swell peaking Mon (3/18) at 3.2 ft @ 14-15 secs (4.5 ft). Swell fading Tues (3/19) from 2.7 ft @ 13 secs early (3.5 ft). Swell Direction: 312 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Tues (3/19) building to 2.5 ft @ 16 (4.0 ft) early and very inconsistent. Swell holding Wed (3/20) at 2.5 ft @ 14 secs (3.5 ft) and inconsistent. Swell fading Thurs (3/21) from 2.5 ft @ 13 secs early (3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 296 degrees

Second Japan Gale
Another gale developed while pushing east off North Japan on Sat AM (3/16) producing west winds at 45-50 kts and seas building from 23 ft at 37.5N 158E aimed east. In the evening the gale tracked east with 45-50 kt west winds and seas 35 ft at 39.5N 165.75E aimed east. On Sun AM (3/17) the gale continued east nearly reaching the dateline with 40 kt west winds and seas 36 ft at 39.25N 172.25E aimed east. The gale is to be fading in the evening while moving over the dateline with 35-40 kts west winds over a moderate area and seas 31 ft at 40N 177.25E aimed east. Fetch dissipating Mon AM (3/18) from 30-35 kts with seas fading from 28 ft on the dateline at 39.25N 178.5W aimed east. Something to monitor.

Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Wed (3/20) building to 5.0 ft @ 15-16 secs mid-day (7.5 ft). Swell fading some on Thurs (3/21) from 4.3 ft @ 13-14 secs early (5.5 ft). Residuals on Fri (3/22) fading from 2.9 ft @ 11-12 secs (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell Direction: 325 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival late on Thurs (3/21) at 2.0 ft @ 18-19 secs (3.5 ft) and inconsistent. Swell building some Fri (3/22) at 3.0 ft @ 15-16 secs (4.5 ft). Swell fading on Sat (3/23) from 2.8 ft @ 13-14 secs early (3.5-4.0 ft). Swell Direction: 290 degrees

Third Japan Gale
And yet another gale is to start building west of the dateline Mon PM (3/18) with 40 kt west winds and seas building from 27 ft at 38.5N 155E aimed east. On Tues AM (3/19) west winds to be fading from 35-40 kts with seas 29 ft over a modest sized area at 41.5N 160E aimed east. Fetch holding in the evening from 35-40 kts with seas 29 ft at 40.75N 161.25E aimed east. Fetch fading in coverage Wed AM (3/20) at 35-40 kts approaching the dateline with 29 ft seas at 40N 166.75we aimed east. The gael to dissipate from there. Something to monitor.

Another Dateline Gale
A small gale started developing while moving east over the North Dateline region Mon AM (3/11) with 45-50 kt northwest winds and seas building from 29 ft at 44N 171E. In the evening fetch pushed east at 45 kts from the west with seas 38 ft at 45N 177.5E aimed east. On Tues AM (3/12) the gale was over the dateline producing 45 kt west winds with seas 33 ft at 44.5N 179.25W aimed east. In the evening the gale was reorganizing while falling southeast with 40 kt northwest winds over a solid area and seas 31 ft at 41.5N 177.5W aimed southeast. Fetch was fading Wed AM (3/13) in the Northwestern Gulf with 30-35 kt northwest winds and seas 29 ft at 40N 173W aimed southeast at Hawaii. In the evening fetch was fading from 30 kts aimed southeast with seas 25 ft over a solid area at 38N 167W aimed east and southeast. The gale faded out from there. Swell expected for Hawaii and the US West Coast. Something to monitor.

Oahu: Residuals on Sun (3/17) fading from 4.0 ft @ 11 secs (4.5 ft). Swell Direction: 325-330 degrees

North CA: Swell fading on Sun (3/17) from 3.8 ft @ 14-15 secs early (5.5 ft). Residuals on Mon (3/18) fading from 3.4 ft @ 12-13 secs early (4.0-4.5 ft). Swell Direction: 290-295 degrees

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Mon AM (3/18) high pressure builds off the Pacific Northwest with northwest winds 10 kts early for all of North Ca and 5 kts for Central CA. No change in the afternoon expect northwest winds 10 kts for Central CA. No precip forecast .
Tues AM (3/19) weak low pressure builds well off North CA with northwest winds locally for North and Central CA at 5 kts early. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 10 kts for North Ca and 5-10 kts for Central CA as the low moves east.
Wed AM (3/20) the low moves up along the Oregon Coast with south winds 5 kts for Cape Mendocino and northwest winds 5 kts for the rest of North CA and northwest 10-15 kts for Central CA from Big Sur southward early. In the afternoon northwest winds are forecast at 5 kts for both North and Central CA but 15 kts south of Big Sur.
Thurs AM (3/21) northwest winds are forecast at 5 kts for North CA and up to 15 kts south of Big Sur. In the afternoon northwest winds are forecast at 1-5 kts for North and Central CA. No precip forecast.
Fri AM (3/22) low pressure starts building well off North CA with south winds 5 kts for North CA and northwest winds 1-5 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon south winds are forecast at 15-20 kts for North CA and 5 kts down to the Golden Gate with northwest winds 5 kts for Central CA. Rain developing for Cape Mendocino building to Pt Reyes through the day and into the evening.
Sat AM (3/23) low pressure starts moving into Southern Oregon with southwest winds 15-20 kts for Cape Mendocino and northwest down to the Golden Gate 5 kts and northwest winds 1-5 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon west to southwest winds are forecast at 10 kts for North Ca and southwest 1-5 kts for Central CA. Rain for North Ca early building over Monterey Bay late morning and Pt Conception in the afternoon to Santa Barbara Co in the evening. Snow for higher elevations of the Sierra later in the afternoon with snow levels falling in the evening.
Sun AM (3/24) high pressure sets up with northwest winds 10-15 kts for North CA early and 15 kts for Central CA. Rain for all of California early. Snow fairly heavy early for the Sierra.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at 12, 15, 9, and 2 inches starting 3/22 and slowly accumulating steadily beyond.

Freeze Level for Tahoe Ski Resorts: Freeze Levels 9.000-10.000 ft today falling to 9.000 ft on 3/20 then down to 7.500 ft on 3/22 then down to 5,000 ft 3/24 holding beyond. Winter to possibly return.

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Overview
Surface Analysis
Swell from a gale that developed under New Zealand is radiating northeast weakly (see New Zealand Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

New Zealand Gale
A gale developed under New Zealand on Sun AM (3/10) producing southwest winds at 45 kts over a solid area aimed northeast with seas building from 35 ft at 55.25S 167.25E aimed northeast. In the evening southwest winds were fading in coverage from 40-45 kts from the southwest and falling south with seas 35 ft at 61.25S 169.75E aimed northeast. Fetch was fading in coverage Mon AM (3/11) from 40 kts with seas fading from 35 ft at 60.75S 179E aimed northeast. The gale dissipated from there.

Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Sun (3/17) building to 1.1 ft @ 14-15 secs (1.5 ft) early. Swell fading on Mon (3/18) from 1.0 ft @ 13 secs (1.0-1.5 ft). Swell Direction: 195 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Wed (3/20) building to 1.1 ft @ 18 secs midday (2.0 ft). Swell building Thurs (3/21) to 1.3 ft @ 16-17 secs later (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell peaking on Fri (3/22) at 1.6 ft @ 15-16 secs later (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell fading on Sat (3/23) from 1.4 ft @ 14-15 secs early (2.0 ft). Swell fading out on Sun (3/24) from 1.1 ft @ 13-14 secs early (1.5 ft). Swell Direction: 213 moving to 207 degrees

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

Beyond 72 hours yet another gale is forecast developing off Central Japan on Wed PM (3/20) with 45 kt northwest winds and seas 33 ft at 34N 148.5E aimed east. On Thurs AM (3/21) 45-50 kts west winds are forecast with seas 41 ft over a small area at 35N 155E aimed east. The gale is to track east in the evening with 45 kts west winds and seas 38 ft at 36N 164E aimed east. On Fri AM (3/22) west winds to be 40 kts approaching the dateline with seas 34 ft at 34N 169E aimed east. Fetch fading in the evening from 35 kts racing east of the dateline with seas fading from 28 ft at 34.5N 174.5E aimed east. The gale fading out from there Something to monitor.

And yet another gale is forecast developing on the dateline Sun (3/24) with 40 kts west winds and seas building from 27 ft over a decent sized area at 41.75N 175.5W aimed southeast.

A progressive storm pattern looks to be forecast initially isolated to the far West Pacific. Much swell decay will result for any swell produced as it radiates east to Hawaii and California. This looks to all be driven by the Active Phase of the MJO developing over the far West Pacific. The forecast suggests that as the Active MJO pushes east over the next 3-4 weeks, the center of storm production will move east with it focused on the dateline and eventually the Gulf of Alaska. At least that's the hope.

La Nina Arrives -
Active MJO Builds Too
NINO3.4 SST Anomalies Starting to Fade
9 Kelvin Waves traversed the Pacific from Dec '22 through Dec 2023 erupting off Ecuador setting up El Nino for the Winter of 23-24. But now cold water has traversed the subsurface equatorial Pacific and is starting to erupt off the coast of Ecuador with the remaining warm pool created by El Nino starting to dissipate in the East Equatorial Pacific. Regardless, the atmosphere is still in El Nino mode and will continue from previous momentum while slowly fading through Fall of 2024.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023.

Rationale: A 3 year La Nina started fading in Jan 2023 and was gone by April. 6 Active MJO's produced 6 Kelvin Waves over early to mid 2023 with Kelvin Wave #7 in August building over the West Pacific and the 4th, 5th and 6th backed up off Ecuador now (10/20/23). The CFS model is predicting steady west anomalies from here forward and the leading edge of the low pressure bias moving over California now filling the Pacific. We are now under an El Nino status. We are moving into a period of enhanced storm production (starting late Sept 2023) and beyond, getting intense come late Fall and early Winter. This should result in an above normal level of swells, with swells being longer than normal duration from here forward as El Nino gets a stronger footprint on the atmosphere. The net result is a well above normal number of swells with above normal size and duration (i.e 15 significant class swells perhaps). Last year there were 0 and year before 5 or less.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (3/16) 5 day average winds were strong east over the East equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were weak east over East equatorial Pacific and modest east over the Central Pacific and moderate east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (3/17) East anomalies are strong over the KWGA today but west anomalies were building over the KWGA. The forecast indicates east anomalies are to fade from here forward. And west anomalies are forecast building modestly over the far West KWGA from now into 3/22 then starting to ease east but with weak west anomalies holding filling the KWGA through the end of the model run on 4/2.

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (3/13) A moderate Active MJO (cloudy sky's) was filling the KWGA today. The statistic model indicates a moderate Active MJO is to build over and filling the KWGA on day 5 of the model run then slowly easing east while weakening through day 15 of the model run. The dynamic model depicts the same thing but with the Active Phase still stationary over the KWGA on day 15 of the model run but weakening.
Phase Diagrams - 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (3/17) The statistical model depicts the Active signal was moderately strong over the West Pacific today. The forecast indicates it is to move to the East Pacific and then North Africa over the next 15 days. The dynamic model indicates the Active Phase tracking east over the West Pacific building to strong status on days 2-3 of the model run then slowly weakening to modest strength on day 15 of the model run over the Indian Ocean.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (3/17) A moderate Active MJO pattern (wet air) was over the KWGA today. The Active MJO is to slowly ease east through the KWGA through 3/27. A strong Inactive MJO (dry air) is to follow moving over the KWGA on 4/1 tracking east through 4/16 then east of the KWGA then as a new weak Active Phase starting building into the KWGA 4/21 through the end of the model run on 4/26.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (3/16) Today a moderate Active MJO signal was building over the KWGA with west anomalies in control and forecast holding through 3/28. A weak Inactive Phase and east anomalies are to develop 3/24 building through the end of the model run on 4/13.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (3/17) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
As of 4/17 something is wrong with this version of the model and it's output is not believable. The low pass filter indicates a broad low pressure bias is established over the KWGA centered at 165W with a third contour line fading on 3/17 and a second contour line fading on 4/25. The final contour is to hold through the end of the model run. It appears a strong El Nino is to slowly fade over the next 3 months while dissipating.

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (3/17) Today in the far West Pacific the 30 deg isotherm is gone. The 29 degree isotherm was easing west at 177W. The 28 deg isotherm line was retrograding west from 110W to 145W and was mostly just warm anomalies from off Ecuador being pushed west by trade winds. The 24 degree isotherm extended the whole way across the Pacific and was getting steadily shallower in the east at 20m deep. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies were losing coverage and now only +1 deg while getting compressed to the surface fast under the East Pacific between 107W and then thicker out to the dateline. El Ninos is gone subsurface. Cold water at -2 degs was filling the entire Equatorial Pacific below 150m in the west rising to 20m in the east. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 3/9 indicates cold water in control from Ecuador west to 120W. The remnant warm surface water from El Nino getting pushed west by trades starting at 120W and points west of there. Cold water was filling the entire equatorial Pacific thermocline below it. La Nina is developing. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (3/9) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were negative at 0 to -5 cms over the entire area and -5 to -10 cms from Ecuador west to 145W. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (3/9) cold water was filling the Equatorial Pacific. Cold water was taking control of the equatorial Pacific. El Nino is gone from the subsurface perspective as the ocean turns to La Nina.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (3/16) The latest images depict a moderate warm stream from Ecuador uniformly covering the area on the equator west to 160W but steadily losing density with 3l cool pockets interspersed between Ecuador and 130W. There is still an El Nino signal present but now the beginnings of a cold La Nina signal are starting to emerge from the depths to the oceans surface.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (3/16): A solid cooling pocket was building along Ecuador with another west of the Galapagos. Warming was interspersed from the Galapagos to 125W but likely just the last of warm subsurface water being pushed upward by colder water underneath. A warming trend that has been well entrenched over the East Pacific since Nov 1 2022 is all but gone.
Hi-res Overview: (3/16) Warmer than normal waters are filling the Equatorial Pacific from Ecuador to the dateline but neutral if not cooler pockets were starting to emerge from Ecuador to 120W. The classic El Nino tongue of warm water is still present but slowly losing it's density on the equator west to the dateline. Everything still looks like El Nino but the beginnings of La Nina are developing at the surface.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (3/17) (The official OISST temp record runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were falling hard at +0.356 from +1.024 degs and that was fading from +1.161 after peaking at +1.197 on 2/13 as the last of warm subsurface water gets squeezed upwards. Temps were up from +0.502 on 2/4 and had been toggling in the +0.6 degs range since 12/30, previously up into the +2.0 range in early Nov. .
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (3/17) (OISST runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were falling at +0.836 and had been at +1.2 degs or higher since 1/13. Temps had been in the +1.5 range 11/19-1/12. Weekly OISST are +1.4 (week of 3/6) and were +1.3 (2/28), +1.5 (2/14 & 2/21) +1.7 degs (2/7), +1.8 degs (1/31). +1.7 (1/24 & 1/17) up at +1.9 degs (1/10 & 1/3), +2.0 (12/27, 12/20 and 12/13) after being at +1.9 (12/6), +2.0 degs (11/29) and +2.1 (11/22 - the highest), then +1.9 (11/15) and +1.8 degs (11/8 & 11/1). Monthly Data is +1.72 Oct, +2.02 Nov, +2.02 Dec and +1.82 Jan and +1.56 Feb. The 3 month ONI is +1.8 for the 3 month period DJF and +2.0 ft for NDJ (bare minimal Super El Nino status). All others were less than that.

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps started slowly rising to -0.75 degs in Jan 2023 and up to -0.5 degs (above the La Nina threshold) on 2/12. Temps rose to +0.50 degs mid-May and were at +0.9 degs in mid-June, and +1.05 mid July reaching up to +1.30 degs early Au, +1.6 degs in Sept holding in Oct and , +1.95 in Nov, +2.0 in Dec and +1.85 in Jan and +1.65 in Feb.
Forecast (3/17) - Temps to fall to +0.5 degs mid-April and -2.25 degs in Nov/Dec 2024. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same thing but with temps falling to only -1.6 degs in Oct and leveling off there. According to this version of the model we are past the peak of a strong El Nino.
IRI Consensus Plume: The February 20, 2024 Plume (all models) depicts temps are +1.154 degs today and its the 10th month above the La Nina threshold. Temps to fall steadily from here forward down to +0.749 in March (that's a 3 months running mean) then fading from there down to -0.990 in Oct. The Dynamic model suggest temps falling to -0.988 in Oct and the Statistic down to -0.992.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (3/17) the Daily Index was negative at -3.83 today. The daily SOI turned mostly positive on 2/20 after a 28 day negative peaking down at -46.54 on 2/9. It was positive and up to +31.61 on 1/6 and had been rising the previous 10 days. It had been effectively neutral 11/20/23 through 1/10/24. This was not consistent with El Nino. Previously it was negative for 29 days (7/14-8/11) with a peak down to -37.30 on 7/25 and negative previously to 7/12 with peaks down to -29.32 on 5/31, -64.63 on 5/24 and -31.31 on 5/12.
The 30 day average was rising at +1.38, Recent max lows were -19.26 on 2/20, -10.43 on 11/16 and -15.70 on 9/23.
The 90 day average was rising some at -4.65. Recent max lows were -11.14 on 11/17, -11.85 on 10/15.
El Nino is collapsing

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan '98-Feb 2014) turning weakly positive March 2014 holding into June 2017 (up to +1.86 driven by the 2015-16 El Nino) then turned neutral. It went negative again 10/19 and hard negative in 10/21-10/23 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/23-2/24 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.