Pacific Storm & Surf Forecast (Stormsurf)

Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt): Seas were 3.8 ft @ 14.3 secs with swell 2.9 ft @ 13.6 secs from 283 degrees. Water temp 76.1 (Barbers Pt), 75.4 (Pearl Harbor 233), NA (Lani 239).
Buoy 187 (Pauwela): Seas were 6.1 ft @ 15.4 secs with swell 3.2 ft @ 15.2 secs from 314 degrees. Water temp 75.6 degs
Buoy 106 (Waimea)/Buoy 202 (Hanalei): Seas were 4.6 ft @ 14.3 secs with swell 3.1 ft @ 13.2 secs from 326 degrees. Water temp 74.8 degs
Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 2.6 ft @ 12.8 secs with swell 1.9 ft @ 13.3 secs from 255 degrees. Wind southeast at 6-8 kts. Water temperature 59.0 degs, 57.2 (Harvest 071), 60.3 (Topanga 103), 59.9 (Long Beach 215), 61.0 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 59.7 (Del Mar 153), 60.1 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 3.4 ft @ 17.5 secs from 287 degrees. At E. Santa Barbara (46053) swell was 1.9 ft @ 12.1 secs from 277 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.6 ft @ 13.0 secs from 245 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.6 ft @ 13.4 secs from 242 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 3.1 ft @ 12.9 secs from 257 degrees. Water temperature was 60.1 degrees (Imperial Beach).
Buoy 029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 6.9 ft @ 16.7 secs with swell 5.2 ft @ 17.0 secs from 295 degrees. Wind northwest at 12-16 kts (Bodega Bay 46013) and NNW at 10-12 kts (Half Moon Bay 1801589) and north at 4 kts (Monterey Bay (46092). Water temp NA (Bodega Bay 46013), 54.3 degs (Pt Reyes 029), NA (San Francisco 46026), 55.8 (SF Bar 142), 56.1 (1801589) and 55.4 (Monterey Bay 46092).

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Tuesday (3/19) in North and Central CA waves were head high and reasonably powerful and clean but very inconsistent. Protected breaks were waist to maybe chest high and reasonably lined up with clean conditions. At Santa Cruz surf was chest to maybe shoulder high and lined up and clean with good form but soft. In Southern California/Ventura waves were waist high and lined up with decent form and a bit textured and soft. Central Orange County had waves at waist high and lined up with reasonable form and soft but real clean. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had waves at waist high and lined up and super clean with decent form. North San Diego had waves at thigh to sometimes waist high on the sets and weakly lined up and clean but with textured on top and mushed. Oahu's North Shore had waves at 1-2 ft overhead on the sets and lined up and clean with decent form. The South Shore was waist high on the sets and lined up but pretty soft and clean. The East Shore was getting minimal east windswell at thigh to waist high and chopped from modest east-northeast winds.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Tuesday (3/19) California was getting the leading edge of swell originating from a storm that developed off the Kuril Islands Wed-Thurs (3/14) with up to 38 ft seas aimed east but never even reached the dateline. Hawaii was getting fading energy from the same source (North Japan Gale). Another gale developed west of the dateline Sat-Mon (3/18) with 37 ft sea aimed east and making it to the dateline before fading (Second Japan Gale). And another was developing behind that on the same track Mon-Wed (3/20) but with only 27 ft seas aimed east (Third Japan Gale). And another is forecast behind that Wed-Sat (3/23) with 39 ft seas aimed east. And yet another is possible developing in the Gulf after that. Down south a gale developed under New Zealand Sun-Mon (3/11) with 35 ft seas aimed mostly east now targeting Southern California. Summer is trying to get an early start but Winter is not over.

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

Overview
Jetstream
On Tuesday (3/19) the jet was consolidated from Japan to nearly the dateline with winds 180 kts feeding a trough developing off the Kuril Islands supportive of gale development. East of there the jet split at 180W with the northern branch ill formed and tracking northeast and up over the Eastern Aleutians offering nothing. Over the next 72 hours winds to build off Japan reaching to 170W with winds 190 kts Wed-Thurs (3/21) starting to carve out another trough pushing off Japan offering great support for gale development with the split point moving to 165W or die north of Hawaii. Beyond 72 hours the trough is to move east mid-way to the dateline on Sat (3/23) continuing to support gale development but the strongest winds are to be in the east side of the trough pushing northeast up into the Gulf of Alaska not yet offering support for gale development. And leading energy is to be pushing into Central CA offering potential for weather there. By Mon (3/25) the jet is to be consolidated tracking east across the North Pacific roughly on the 40N latitude line with winds 150 kts in pockets and the previous trough moving to a point north of Hawaii still supportive of gale development and the leading edge of that energy pushing onshore over South Oregon. More of the same is forecast on Tues (3/26) with a trough just west of the dateline and another in the Central Gulf and the jet moving onshore over North CA producing weather there. A fairly active pattern is setting up fueled by the MJO and steadily moving east.

Surface Analysis
On Tuesday (3/19) swell was hitting California and fading in Hawaii from a gale that developed while pushing east off Japan (see North Japan Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours another swell is to be pushing east hitting Hawaii from a second gael that tracked off Japan (see Second Japan Gale below).

North Japan Gale
On Tues PM (3/12) a gale started building off North Japan with 45 kt west winds and seas building. On Wed AM (3/13) the gale built to storm status with 55 kt west winds off the Southern Kuril Islands with seas building from 35 ft at 41.75N 156.5E aimed east. in the evening 50 kts winds were lifting northeast with seas 38 ft at 45.75N 161.75E aimed east. On Thurs AM (3/14) winds were still pushing west off the north Kuril Islands at 40 kts and seas 34 ft at 47N 164.5E aimed east. in the evening west fetch was fading from 35 kts with seas 26 ft at 47N 164.25e aimed east. The gael faded out after that.

Oahu: Swell fading Tues (3/19) from 2.7 ft @ 13 secs early (3.5 ft). Swell Direction: 312 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Tues (3/19) building to 2.5 ft @ 16 (4.0 ft) early and very inconsistent. Swell holding Wed (3/20) at 2.5 ft @ 14 secs (3.5 ft) and inconsistent. Swell fading Thurs (3/21) from 2.5 ft @ 13 secs early (3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 296 degrees

Second Japan Gale
Another gale developed while pushing east off North Japan on Sat AM (3/16) producing west winds at 45-50 kts and seas building from 23 ft at 37.5N 158E aimed east. In the evening the gale tracked east with 45-50 kt west winds and seas 35 ft at 39.5N 165.75E aimed east. On Sun AM (3/17) the gale continued east nearly reaching the dateline with 40 kt west winds and seas 36 ft at 39.25N 172.25E aimed east. The gale was fading in the evening while moving over the dateline with 35-40 kts west winds over a moderate area and seas 31 ft at 39.5N 178.5E aimed east. Fetch dissipating Mon AM (3/18) from 30-35 kts with seas fading from 26 ft on the dateline at 39.5N 179W aimed east. Something to monitor.

Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Wed (3/20) building to 5.0 ft @ 15-16 secs mid-day (7.5 ft). Swell fading some on Thurs (3/21) from 4.3 ft @ 13-14 secs early (5.5 ft). Residuals on Fri (3/22) fading from 2.9 ft @ 11-12 secs (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell Direction: 325 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival late on Thurs (3/21) at 2.0 ft @ 18-19 secs (3.5 ft) and inconsistent. Swell building some Fri (3/22) at 3.0 ft @ 15-16 secs (4.5 ft). Swell fading on Sat (3/23) from 2.8 ft @ 13-14 secs early (3.5-4.0 ft). Swell Direction: 290 degrees

Third Japan Gale
And yet another gale started building while pushing off Japan Mon PM (3/18) with 40 kt west winds and seas building from 25 ft at 40.5N 153.5E aimed east. On Tues AM (3/19) west winds to be fading from 35-40 kts with seas 27 ft over a modest sized area at 41.5N 157.7E aimed east. Fetch holding in the evening from 35-40 kts with seas 27 ft at 41.5N 159.75E aimed east. Fetch fading in coverage Wed AM (3/20) half way to the dateline at 35 kts with 26 ft seas at 40.25N 163E aimed east. The gale to dissipate from there. Something to monitor.

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Wed AM (3/20) developing low pressure moves east from the Central Gulf up to the Oregon Coast with south winds 5 kts for Cape Mendocino and northwest winds 5 kts for the rest of North CA and northwest 10-15 kts for Central CA from Big Sur southward early. In the afternoon south winds are forecast at 5-10 kts for Cape Mendocino and south 5 kts for the rest of North CA and northwest winds forecast at 5 kts for Central CA but 15 kts south of Big Sur. No precip forecast.
Thurs AM (3/21) the low holds off the coast with south winds forecast at 5-10 kts for North CA and northwest 5-10 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon south winds are forecast at 10-15 kts for North CA and northwest winds are forecast at 5-10 kts for Central CA. No precip forecast.
Fri AM (3/22) the front start impacting North CA with south winds 10-15 kts for North CA and northwest winds 1-5 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon southwest winds are forecast at 15 kts for North CA and southwest winds 10 kts for Central CA down to Monterey Bay and south 10 kts to Pt Conception. Rain developing for Cape Mendocino early building to Pt Reyes through the day and over Monterey Bay to Big Sur in the evening. Snow developing for Tahoe in the afternoon getting stronger in the evening and building south over the Central Sierra.
Sat AM (3/23) low pressure holds just off Southern Oregon with and front impacting California with southwest winds 15-20 kts for Cape Mendocino and southwest 10 kts down to the Golden Gate and northwest winds 10 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon west to southwest winds are forecast at 15 kts for North CA down to Monterey Bay and northwest 10 kts south of there. Rain for North CA early with showers for Central CA building over Monterey Bay in the afternoon. Snow for Tahoe in the evening.
Sun AM (3/24) high pressure sets up with northwest winds 10 kts for North and Central CA early and 15 kts for Southern CA. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 20+ kts for all of North and Central CA and 15-20 kts for Southern CA. Showers for the Central CA coast early then clearing. No snow forecast.
Mon AM (3/25) northwest winds to be 10-15 kts for North CA and 20 kts for Central CA early but calm for Southern CA. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 10+ kts for North and Central CA but northwest 20 kts for Southern CA. Rain for Cape Mendocino mid-AM building to the Golden Gate in the afternoon mainly just along the coast . Snow showers for the Sierra in the afternoon.
Tues AM (3/26) northwest winds to be 10 kts for North CA early and 15 kts for Central and Southern CA early. Rain developing for Cape Mendocino in the afternoon.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at 56, 64, 52 and 15 inches starting 3/22 and slowly accumulating steadily through 3/28.

Freeze Level for Tahoe Ski Resorts: Freeze Levels 9.000-10.000 ft today falling to 8.200 ft on 3/20 then down to 7.000 ft on 3/22 then down to 4,000-5,000 ft 3/23 holding beyond. Winter to return.

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Overview
Surface Analysis
Swell from a gale that developed under New Zealand is radiating northeast weakly (see New Zealand Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours a gale is forecast developing under New Zealand on Wed PM (3/20) producing west winds at 40-45 kts with seas building to 32 ft at 60.75S 172.75E. On Thurs AM (3/21) west winds are to be 40 kts aimed east with seas 32 ft at 63S 176,75W aimed east. Fetch fading while falling southeast in the evening with southwest winds 35 kts and seas 27 ft at 66S 157.25W aimed east. Fetch fading from there. Something to monitor.

New Zealand Gale
A gale developed under New Zealand on Sun AM (3/10) producing southwest winds at 45 kts over a solid area aimed northeast with seas building from 35 ft at 55.25S 167.25E aimed northeast. In the evening southwest winds were fading in coverage from 40-45 kts from the southwest and falling south with seas 35 ft at 61.25S 169.75E aimed northeast. Fetch was fading in coverage Mon AM (3/11) from 40 kts with seas fading from 35 ft at 60.75S 179E aimed northeast. The gale dissipated from there.

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Wed (3/20) building to 1.1 ft @ 18 secs midday (2.0 ft). Swell building Thurs (3/21) to 1.3 ft @ 16-17 secs later (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell peaking on Fri (3/22) at 1.6 ft @ 15-16 secs later (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell fading on Sat (3/23) from 1.4 ft @ 14-15 secs early (2.0 ft). Swell fading out on Sun (3/24) from 1.1 ft @ 13-14 secs early (1.5 ft). Swell Direction: 213 moving to 207 degrees

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

Beyond 72 hours yet another gale is forecast developing off Central Japan on Wed PM (3/20) with 45-50 kt northwest winds and seas 33 ft at 35N 146E aimed east. On Thurs AM (3/21) the gael is to track east with 45-50 kts west winds forecast with seas 39 ft over a small area at 34.5N 153.25E aimed east. The gale is to track east in the evening with 40 kts west winds and seas 37 ft at 34N 159E aimed east. On Fri AM (3/22) the gale is to be approaching the dateline with west winds 40 kts with seas 34 ft at 37.5N 167.75E aimed east. Fetch fading in the evening while the gale lifts east-northeast over the dateline with west winds 35 kts with seas fading from 27 ft at 35.5N 174.25E aimed east. The gale is to move into the Northwestern Gulf on Sat AM (3/23) with west winds 30 kts and seas fading from 25 ft at 43.5N 174W aimed east. The gale fading out from there. Something to monitor.

And yet another gale is forecast developing in the Gulf on Tues (3/26) with 40 kts west winds and seas building from 27 ft over a decent sized area at 45N 145.75W aimed southeast.

A progressive storm pattern looks to be forecast initially isolated to the far West Pacific. Much swell decay will result for any swell produced as it radiates east to Hawaii and California. This looks to all be driven by the Active Phase of the MJO developing over the far West Pacific. The forecast suggests that as the Active MJO pushes east over the next 3-4 weeks, the center of storm production will move east with it focused on the dateline and eventually the Gulf of Alaska. At least that's the hope.

La Nina Arrives -
Active MJO Builds Too
NINO3.4 SST Anomalies Starting to Fade
9 Kelvin Waves traversed the Pacific from Dec '22 through Dec 2023 erupting off Ecuador setting up El Nino for the Winter of 23-24. But now cold water has traversed the subsurface equatorial Pacific and is starting to erupt off the coast of Ecuador with the remaining warm pool created by El Nino starting to dissipate in the East Equatorial Pacific. Regardless, the atmosphere is still in El Nino mode and will continue from previous momentum while slowly fading through Fall of 2024.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023.

Rationale: A 3 year La Nina started fading in Jan 2023 and was gone by April. 6 Active MJO's produced 6 Kelvin Waves over early to mid 2023 with Kelvin Wave #7 in August building over the West Pacific and the 4th, 5th and 6th backed up off Ecuador now (10/20/23). The CFS model is predicting steady west anomalies from here forward and the leading edge of the low pressure bias moving over California now filling the Pacific. We are now under an El Nino status. We are moving into a period of enhanced storm production (starting late Sept 2023) and beyond, getting intense come late Fall and early Winter. This should result in an above normal level of swells, with swells being longer than normal duration from here forward as El Nino gets a stronger footprint on the atmosphere. The net result is a well above normal number of swells with above normal size and duration (i.e 15 significant class swells perhaps). Last year there were 0 and year before 5 or less.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (3/18) 5 day average winds were strong east over the East equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were moderate east over East equatorial Pacific and neutral over the Central Pacific and weak east east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (3/19) West anomalies are building at near strong status in the KWGA over a small area today and weak west anomalies were over the East Equatorial Pacific. The forecast indicates west anomalies to hold through 3/24 in the KWGA then starting to move east and limited to only the dateline through the end of the model run on 4/4 with weak to modest east anomalies building in pockets over the West KWGA.

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (3/18) A strong Active MJO (cloudy sky's) was filling the KWGA today. The statistic model indicates the Active MJO holding over and filling the KWGA on day 5 of the model run then slowly easing east while weakening through day 10 of the model run with the Inactive Phase building strong over the KWGA on day 15 of the model run. The dynamic model depicts the same thing but with the Active Phase still stationary over the KWGA on day 10 and 15 of the model run but very weak.
Phase Diagrams - 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (3/19) The statistical model depicts the Active signal was strong over the West Pacific today. The forecast indicates it is to move to the East Pacific 5 days from now and then to the West Indian Ocean over the next 15 days at moderate status. The dynamic model indicates the Active Phase is to track east over the East Pacific on day 4 of the model run then weakening to near dead status on day 15 of the model run over the East Indian Ocean.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (3/19) A weak Active MJO pattern (wet air) was over the KWGA today. The Active MJO is to track east through the KWGA through 3/24. A strong Inactive MJO (dry air) is to follow moving over the KWGA on 3/29 tracking east through 4/13 then east of the KWGA then as a new weak Active Phase starting building into the KWGA 4/18 through the end of the model run on 4/28 filling the KWGA.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (3/18) Today a moderate Active MJO signal was peaking over the KWGA with west anomalies in control and forecast holding through 3/28. A weak Inactive Phase and east anomalies are to develop 3/24 at moderate status holding through 4/1 then weakening but with steady east anomalies filling the KWGA through the end of the model run on 4/15.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (3/17) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
As of 4/17 something is wrong with this version of the model and it's output is not believable. The low pass filter indicates a broad low pressure bias is established over the KWGA centered at 165W with a third contour line fading on 3/17 and a second contour line fading on 4/25. The final contour is to hold through the end of the model run. It appears a strong El Nino is to slowly fade over the next 3 months while dissipating.

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (3/19) Today in the far West Pacific the 30 deg isotherm is gone. The 29 degree isotherm was easing west at 179W. The 28 deg isotherm line was retrograding west from 147W and was mostly just warm anomalies from off Ecuador being pushed west by trade winds. The 24 degree isotherm extended the whole way across the Pacific and was getting steadily shallower in the east at 20m deep. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies were losing coverage and now only +1 deg while getting compressed to the surface fast under the East Pacific between 104W and then thicker out to the dateline. El Nino is gone subsurface. Cold water at -2 degs was filling the entire Equatorial Pacific below 150m in the west rising to 20m in the east. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 3/14 indicates cold water in control from Ecuador west to 120W. The remnant warm surface water from El Nino getting pushed west by trades starting at 120W and points west of there. Cold water was filling the entire equatorial Pacific thermocline below it. La Nina is developing. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (3/14) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were negative at 0 to -5 cms over the entire area and -5 to -10 cms from Ecuador west to 135W and building in density. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (3/14) cold water was filling the Equatorial Pacific and -0.5 to -1.0 degs east of 140W. El Nino is gone from the subsurface perspective as the ocean turns to La Nina.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (3/18) The latest images depict a moderate warm stream from Ecuador uniformly covering the area on the equator west to 160W but steadily losing density with 2 cool pockets interspersed between Ecuador and 130W. There is still an El Nino signal present but now the beginnings of a cold La Nina signal are starting to emerge from the depths to the oceans surface.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (3/18): A solid cooling pocket was building along Ecuador with another west of the Galapagos. Warming was just north of the equator from the Galapagos to 130W but likely just the last of warm subsurface water being pushed upward by colder water underneath. A warming trend that has been well entrenched over the East Pacific since Nov 1 2022 is all but gone.
Hi-res Overview: (3/16) Warmer than normal waters are filling the Equatorial Pacific from Ecuador to the dateline but neutral if not cooler pockets were starting to emerge from Ecuador to 120W. The classic El Nino tongue of warm water is still present but slowly losing it's density on the equator west to the dateline. Everything still looks like El Nino but the beginnings of La Nina are developing at the surface.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (3/19) (The official OISST temp record runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were falling hard at -0.010 from +1.024 degs on 3/12 and that was fading from +1.161 after peaking at +1.197 on 2/13 as the last of warm subsurface water gets squeezed upwards. Temps were up from +0.502 on 2/4 and had been toggling in the +0.6 degs range since 12/30, previously up into the +2.0 range in early Nov. .
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (3/17) (OISST runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were rising some at +0.911 and had been at +1.2 degs or higher since 1/13. Temps had been in the +1.5 range 11/19-1/12. Weekly OISST are +1.1 degs (week of 3/130, +1.4 (3/6), +1.3 (2/28), +1.5 (2/14 & 2/21) +1.7 (2/7), +1.8 (1/31). +1.7 (1/24 & 1/17) up at +1.9 (1/10 & 1/3), +2.0 (12/27, 12/20 and 12/13) after being at +1.9 (12/6), +2.0 (11/29) and +2.1 (11/22 - the highest), then +1.9 (11/15) and +1.8 degs (11/8 & 11/1). Monthly Data is +1.72 Oct, +2.02 Nov, +2.02 Dec and +1.82 Jan and +1.56 Feb. The 3 month ONI is +1.8 for the 3 month period DJF and +2.0 ft for NDJ (bare minimal Super El Nino status). All others were less than that.

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose to +0.50 degs mid-May, +0.9 degs in mid-June, and +1.05 mid July reaching up to +1.30 degs early Aug, +1.6 degs in Sept holding in Oct and , +1.95 in Nov, +2.0 in Dec and +1.85 in Jan and +1.65 in Feb.
Forecast (3/19) - Temps to fall to +0.5 degs mid-April and -2.25 degs in Nov/Dec 2024. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same thing but with temps falling to only -1.6 degs in Oct and leveling off there. According to this version of the model we are past the peak of a strong El Nino.
IRI Consensus Plume: The February 20, 2024 Plume (all models) depicts temps are +1.154 degs today and its the 10th month above the La Nina threshold. Temps to fall steadily from here forward down to +0.749 in March (that's a 3 months running mean) then fading from there down to -0.990 in Oct. The Dynamic model suggest temps falling to -0.988 in Oct and the Statistic down to -0.992.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (3/19) the Daily Index was positive at 5.26 today. The daily SOI turned mostly positive on 2/20 after a 28 day negative peaking down at -46.54 on 2/9. It was positive and up to +31.61 on 1/6 and had been rising the previous 10 days. It had been effectively neutral 11/20/23 through 1/10/24. This was not consistent with El Nino. Previously it was negative for 29 days (7/14-8/11) with a peak down to -37.30 on 7/25 and negative previously to 7/12 with peaks down to -29.32 on 5/31, -64.63 on 5/24 and -31.31 on 5/12.
The 30 day average was rising at +1.98, Recent max lows were -19.26 on 2/20, -10.43 on 11/16 and -15.70 on 9/23.
The 90 day average was rising some at -4.52. Recent max lows were -11.14 on 11/17, -11.85 on 10/15.
El Nino is collapsing

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan '98-Feb 2014) turning weakly positive March 2014 holding into June 2017 (up to +1.86 driven by the 2015-16 El Nino) then turned neutral. It went negative again 10/19 and hard negative in 10/21-10/23 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/23-2/24 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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