BUOY ROUNDUP
Thursday, March 21, 2024 :

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Thursday (3/21) in North and Central CA waves were chest to head high and reasonably lined up and clean but inconsistent with some intermixed warble on top. Protected breaks were waist high and lined up when they come but pretty soft with clean conditions with some texture on top. At Santa Cruz surf was chest to head high and lined up and clean with good form. In Southern California/Ventura waves were waist to occasionally chest high and lined up with decent form and clean but soft. Central Orange County had waves at waist to maybe chest high and lined up with reasonable form and soft and clean but real inconsistent. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had waves at chest to shoulder high and lined up and clean with decent form. North San Diego had waves at chest high on the sets and lined up and clean with decent form. Oahu's North Shore had waves at head high on the sets and lined up but with some sideshore warble with decent form. The South Shore was thigh to maybe waist high on the sets and lined up and real clean but soft. The East Shore was getting minimal east windswell at waist high and chopped from moderate east-northeast winds.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Thursday (3/21) California was getting fading swell originating from a storm that developed off the Kuril Islands Wed-Thurs (3/14) with up to 38 ft seas aimed east but never even reached the dateline (North Japan Gale). Hawaii was getting fading swell from a another gale that developed west of the dateline Sat-Mon (3/18) with 37 ft sea aimed east and making it to the dateline before fading (Second Japan Gale). California was poised to start getting that same swell. And another gale developing behind that on the same track Mon-Wed (3/20) but with only 27 ft seas aimed east (Third Japan Gale). And another was developing behind that Wed-Sat (3/23) with 39 ft seas aimed east. And yet another is possible developing off South Oregon on Tues (3/26) with 28 ft seas aimed southeast. And yet another is forecast in the Gulf Wed-Thurs (3/28) with 26-30 ft seas aimed southeast. And another is forecast developing while tracking towards the dateline Wed-Thurs (3/28) with up to 42 ft seas aimed east-northeast. And down south a gale developed under New Zealand Sun-Mon (3/11) with 35 ft seas aimed mostly east now arriving in Southern California. Summer is trying to get an early start but Winter is not over.

See all the details below...

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Thursday (3/21) the jet was consolidated from Japan to the dateline with winds 200 kts feeding a trough half way from Japan to the dateline supportive of gale development. East of there the jet split at 160W with the northern branch weak and tracking north and up over the Eastern Aleutians offering nothing. Over the next 72 hours winds to hold decently pushing east off Japan reaching to 155W consolidated at with winds 150 kts on Sat (3/23) feeding the existing trough offering good support for gale development with the split point almost gone. And another trough is to be building just off Oregon also supportive of gale development and weather for the US West Coast moving onshore on Sun (3/24). at that time the trough over the West Pacific is to move to the dateline still supportive of gale development. Beyond 72 hours starting Mon (3/25) the jet is to be consolidated tracking east across the North Pacific roughly on the 40N latitude line with winds 140-150 kts over it's length with the previous trough moving east of the dateline still supportive of gale development and the leading edge of that energy pushing onshore over South Oregon/north CA making weather there. By Tues (3/26) the jet is to remain consolidated from North Japan to California running flat east on the 43N latitude line with winds 140-150 kts with a series of 3 waves embedded supportive of gale formation. The first wave is to be a trough by Wed (3/27) just off North CA with another in the Northwestern Gulf and a 3rd developing off Japan all supportive of gale formation and all pushing east into Thurs (3/28). Quite a nice little late season pattern setting up all fueled by the Active Phase of the MJO.

Surface Analysis
On Thursday (3/21) swell was fading in California originating from a gale that developed while pushing east off Japan (see North Japan Gale below).And swell was also fading in Hawaii and starting to show in North CA from a second gale that tracked off Japan (see Second Japan Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours swell from a third gale is to pus east towards Hawaii (see Third Japan Gale below).

Yet another gale was developing off Central Japan on Wed PM (3/20) with 45-50 kt northwest winds and seas 33 ft at 35N 147E aimed east. On Thurs AM (3/21) the gale was tracking east with 45 kt west winds with seas 38 ft over a small area at 35N 155E aimed east. The gale is to track east in the evening with 40 kts west winds and seas 34 ft at 36N 162E aimed east. On Fri AM (3/22) the gale is to be approaching the dateline with west winds 40 kts with seas 33 ft at 37N 169.75E aimed east. Fetch fading in the evening while the gale lifts east-northeast over the dateline with west winds 35-40 kts with seas fading from 31 ft at 39.5N 177.25E aimed east. The gale is to move into the Northwestern Gulf on Sat AM (3/23) with west winds 30-35 kts and seas fading from 27 ft at 42N 176W aimed east. The gale fading in the evening with west winds 30 kts and seas fading from 25 ft at 44.5N 171.75W aimed east. Something to monitor.

North Japan Gale
On Tues PM (3/12) a gale started building off North Japan with 45 kt west winds and seas building. On Wed AM (3/13) the gale built to storm status with 55 kt west winds off the Southern Kuril Islands with seas building from 35 ft at 41.75N 156.5E aimed east. in the evening 50 kts winds were lifting northeast with seas 38 ft at 45.75N 161.75E aimed east. On Thurs AM (3/14) winds were still pushing west off the north Kuril Islands at 40 kts and seas 34 ft at 47N 164.5E aimed east. in the evening west fetch was fading from 35 kts with seas 26 ft at 47N 164.25e aimed east. The gael faded out after that.

North CA: Swell fading Thurs (3/21) from 2.5 ft @ 13 secs early (3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 296 degrees

Second Japan Gale
Another gale developed while pushing east off North Japan on Sat AM (3/16) producing west winds at 45-50 kts and seas building from 23 ft at 37.5N 158E aimed east. In the evening the gale tracked east with 45-50 kt west winds and seas 35 ft at 39.5N 165.75E aimed east. On Sun AM (3/17) the gale continued east nearly reaching the dateline with 40 kt west winds and seas 36 ft at 39.25N 172.25E aimed east. The gale was fading in the evening while moving over the dateline with 35-40 kts west winds over a moderate area and seas 31 ft at 39.5N 178.5E aimed east. Fetch dissipating Mon AM (3/18) from 30-35 kts with seas fading from 26 ft on the dateline at 39.5N 179W aimed east. Something to monitor.

Oahu: Swell fading some on Thurs (3/21) from 4.3 ft @ 13-14 secs early (5.5 ft). Residuals on Fri (3/22) fading from 2.9 ft @ 11-12 secs (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell Direction: 325 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival late on Thurs (3/21) at 2.0 ft @ 18-19 secs (3.5 ft) and inconsistent. Swell building some Fri (3/22) at 3.0 ft @ 15-16 secs (4.5 ft). Swell fading on Sat (3/23) from 2.8 ft @ 13-14 secs early (3.5-4.0 ft). Swell Direction: 290 degrees

Third Japan Gale
And yet another gale started building while pushing off Japan Mon PM (3/18) with 40 kt west winds and seas building from 25 ft at 40.5N 153.5E aimed east. On Tues AM (3/19) west winds were fading in coverage at 35-40 kts with seas 27 ft over a modest sized area at 41.5N 157.5E aimed east. Fetch held in the evening from 35-40 kts with seas 27 ft at 38.5N 161E aimed east. Fetch was fading Wed AM (3/20) half way to the dateline at 35 kts with 26 ft seas at 40.5N 162.5E aimed east. The gale to dissipate in the evening with seas fading from 23 ft at 40.5N 170E aimed east. Something to monitor.

Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Sat (3/23) building to 3.4 ft @ 15-16 secs later (5.0 ft). Swell fading on Sun (3/24) from 2.9 ft @ 14 secs early (4.0 ft). Swell Direction: 310 degrees

North CA: Swell arrival on Mon (3/25) but tiny and buried in locally generated windswell.

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

Tropical Update
No tropical systems of interest were being tracked.

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at 74, 84, 74 and 25 inches with a good dump 3/22-3/23 and another 3/27 and more 3/30.

Freeze Level for Tahoe Ski Resorts: Freeze Levels 8.500 ft today then down to 7.000 ft on 3/22 falling to 4,000-5,000 ft 3/23 holding beyond. Winter to return.

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Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for Resort specific forecasts).

South Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
Swell from a gale that developed under New Zealand is radiating northeast weakly (see New Zealand Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours a gale developed under New Zealand on Wed PM (3/20) producing west winds at 40-45 kts with seas building to 32 ft at 60.75S 172.75E. On Thurs AM (3/21) west winds were 35 kts aimed east with seas 28 ft at 62.75S 178.25W aimed east. Fetch fading while falling southeast in the evening with southwest winds 35 kts and seas 26 ft at 63.25S 157.5W aimed east. Fetch fading from there. Something to monitor.

New Zealand Gale
A gale developed under New Zealand on Sun AM (3/10) producing southwest winds at 45 kts over a solid area aimed northeast with seas building from 35 ft at 55.25S 167.25E aimed northeast. In the evening southwest winds were fading in coverage from 40-45 kts from the southwest and falling south with seas 35 ft at 61.25S 169.75E aimed northeast. Fetch was fading in coverage Mon AM (3/11) from 40 kts with seas fading from 35 ft at 60.75S 179E aimed northeast. The gale dissipated from there.

Southern CA: Swell building Thurs (3/21) to 1.3 ft @ 16-17 secs later (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell peaking on Fri (3/22) at 1.6 ft @ 15-16 secs later (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell fading on Sat (3/23) from 1.4 ft @ 14-15 secs early (2.0 ft). Swell fading out on Sun (3/24) from 1.1 ft @ 13-14 secs early (1.5 ft). Swell Direction: 213 moving to 207 degrees

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours a small gale is forecast developing in the Eastern Gulf Tues AM (3/26) with 35-40 kt northwest winds over a small area and seas building from 19 ft at 42N 142W aimed east. In the evening northwest winds to be 35 kts with seas 28 ft at 43.25N 134.5WE aimed east and up to 30 ft in the late evening. On Wed AM (3/27) the gale is poised to impact the Oregon-CA border with seas fading from 27 ft at 42.5N 128W aimed southeast.

And yet another gale is forecast developing in the Gulf on Wed AM (3/27) with 30-35 kt west winds and seas building from 20 ft over a decent sized area at 42N 165W aimed east. In the evening northwest winds to be 35-40 kts with seas 23 ft at 45N 159W aimed southeast. On Thurs AM (3/28) northwest winds to be 35-40 kts with seas 26 ft at 45.5N 152.5W aimed southeast. In the evening northwest winds to be 40 kts with seas 30 ft at 42N 144W aimed southeast. Something to monitor.

And yet another gale is forecast pushing east off Japan Wed AM (3/27) with west winds 45-50 kts and seas building from 29 ft at 34N 156E aimed east. In the evening the gael is to be tracking east-northeast with 45 kts west winds and seas 33 ft at 37.5N 165.75E aimed east. On Thurs AM (3/28) the gale is to be lifting northeast approaching the dateline with 45-50 kts west winds and seas 40 ft at 43N 172.5E aimed east. In the evening west winds to hold at near 50 kts with seas 42 ft at 44.25N 177.5E aimed east. Something to monitor.

A progressive storm pattern looks to be forecast initially isolated to the far West Pacific. Much swell decay will result for any swell produced as it radiates east to Hawaii and California. This looks to all be driven by the Active Phase of the MJO developing over the far West Pacific. The forecast suggests that as the Active MJO pushes east over the next 3-4 weeks, the center of storm production will move east with it focused on the dateline and eventually the Gulf of Alaska. At least that's the hope.

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no meaningful swell producing weather systems are forecast.

MJO/ENSO Forecast

La Nina Arrives -
Active MJO Builds Too
NINO3.4 SST Anomalies Starting to Fade
9 Kelvin Waves traversed the Pacific from Dec '22 through Dec 2023 erupting off Ecuador setting up El Nino for the Winter of 23-24. But now cold water has traversed the subsurface equatorial Pacific and is starting to erupt off the coast of Ecuador with the remaining warm pool created by El Nino starting to dissipate in the East Equatorial Pacific. Regardless, the atmosphere is still in El Nino mode and will continue from previous momentum while slowly fading through Fall of 2024.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023.

Rationale: A 3 year La Nina started fading in Jan 2023 and was gone by April. 6 Active MJO's produced 6 Kelvin Waves over early to mid 2023 with Kelvin Wave #7 in August building over the West Pacific and the 4th, 5th and 6th backed up off Ecuador now (10/20/23). The CFS model is predicting steady west anomalies from here forward and the leading edge of the low pressure bias moving over California now filling the Pacific. We are now under an El Nino status. We are moving into a period of enhanced storm production (starting late Sept 2023) and beyond, getting intense come late Fall and early Winter. This should result in an above normal level of swells, with swells being longer than normal duration from here forward as El Nino gets a stronger footprint on the atmosphere. The net result is a well above normal number of swells with above normal size and duration (i.e 15 significant class swells perhaps). Last year there were 0 and year before 5 or less.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (3/20) 5 day average winds were strong east over the East equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were modest east over East equatorial Pacific and neutral to light west over the Central Pacific and neutral over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (3/21) West anomalies are building at near strong status in the KWGA over a small area today and weak west anomalies were over the East Equatorial Pacific. The forecast indicates strong west anomalies to hold through 3/23 over the KWGA then giving way to weak west anomalies limited to the dateline area and points east of there with east anomalies moderate over the West KWGA. But west anomalies to rebuild filling the KWGA 4/1 through the end of the model run on 4/6.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (3/21) Today in the far West Pacific the 30 deg isotherm is gone. The 29 degree isotherm was easing west wavering near 177W. The 28 deg isotherm line was retrograding west from 145W and was mostly just warm anomalies from off Ecuador being pushed west by trade winds. The 24 degree isotherm extended the whole way across the Pacific and was shallow but stable in the east at 20m deep. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies were losing coverage and now only +1 deg while getting compressed to the surface fast under the East Pacific between 101W and then thicker out to the dateline. El Nino is gone subsurface. Cold water at -2 degs was filling the entire Equatorial Pacific below 150m in the west rising to 20m in the east. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 3/14 indicates cold water in control from Ecuador west to 125W. The remnant warm surface water from El Nino getting pushed west by trades starting at 120W and points west of there. Cold water was filling the entire equatorial Pacific thermocline below it. La Nina is developing. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (3/14) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were negative at 0 to -5 cms over the entire area and -5 to -10 cms from Ecuador west to 135W and building in density. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (3/14) cold water was filling the Equatorial Pacific and -0.5 to -1.0 degs east of 140W. El Nino is gone from the subsurface perspective as the ocean turns to La Nina.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (3/20) The latest images depict a moderate warm stream from Ecuador uniformly covering the area on the equator west to 160W but steadily losing density with 2 cool pockets interspersed between Ecuador and 110W. There is still an El Nino signal present but now the beginnings of a cold La Nina signal are starting to emerge from the depths up to the oceans surface.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (3/20): A solid cooling pocket was building along Ecuador with another west of the Galapagos. Warming was on the equator from 110W out to the dateline and actually building. A warming trend that has been well entrenched over the East Pacific since Nov 1 2022 is all but gone.
Hi-res Overview: (3/20) Warmer than normal waters are filling the Equatorial Pacific from Ecuador to the dateline but neutral if not cooler pockets were starting to emerge from Ecuador to 120W. The classic El Nino tongue of warm water is still present but slowly losing it's density on the equator west to the dateline. Everything still looks like El Nino but the beginnings of La Nina are developing at the surface.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (3/21) (The official OISST temp record runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were steady at -0.123 after falling hard from from +1.024 degs on 3/12 and that was fading from +1.161 after peaking at +1.197 on 2/13 as the last of warm subsurface water gets squeezed upwards. Temps were up from +0.502 on 2/4 and had been toggling in the +0.6 degs range since 12/30, previously up into the +2.0 range in early Nov. .
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (3/21) (OISST runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were rising some at +1.107 after dipping some the previous 5 days. Temps had been at +1.2 degs or higher since 1/13. Temps had been in the +1.5 range 11/19-1/12. Weekly OISST are +1.1 degs (week of 3/130, +1.4 (3/6), +1.3 (2/28), +1.5 (2/14 & 2/21) +1.7 (2/7), +1.8 (1/31). +1.7 (1/24 & 1/17) up at +1.9 (1/10 & 1/3), +2.0 (12/27, 12/20 and 12/13) after being at +1.9 (12/6), +2.0 (11/29) and +2.1 (11/22 - the highest), then +1.9 (11/15) and +1.8 degs (11/8 & 11/1). Monthly Data is +1.72 Oct, +2.02 Nov, +2.02 Dec and +1.82 Jan and +1.56 Feb. The 3 month ONI is +1.8 for the 3 month period DJF and +2.0 ft for NDJ (bare minimal Super El Nino status). All others were less than that.

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose to +0.50 degs mid-May, +0.9 degs in mid-June, and +1.05 mid July reaching up to +1.30 degs early Aug, +1.6 degs in Sept holding in Oct and , +1.95 in Nov, +2.0 in Dec and +1.85 in Jan and +1.65 in Feb.
Forecast (3/21) - Temps to fall to +0.5 degs mid-April, -0.5 late May and -2.25 degs in Nov/Dec 2024. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same thing but with temps falling to only -1.6 degs in Oct and leveling off there. According to this version of the model we are past the peak of a strong El Nino.
IRI Consensus Plume: The March 19, 2024 Plume (all models) depicts temps are +0.760 degs today and its the 11th month above the La Nina threshold. Temps to fall steadily from here forward down to 0.326 in April (that's a 3 months running mean) then fading from there down to -1.011 in Sept and holding there. The Dynamic model suggest temps falling to -1.097 in Sept and the Statistic down to -1.021 in Oct.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (3/21) the Daily Index was positive at 6.89 today. The daily SOI turned mostly positive on 2/20 after a 28 day negative peaking down at -46.54 on 2/9. It was positive and up to +31.61 on 1/6 and had been rising the previous 10 days. It had been effectively neutral 11/20/23 through 1/10/24. This was not consistent with El Nino. Previously it was negative for 29 days (7/14-8/11) with a peak down to -37.30 on 7/25 and negative previously to 7/12 with peaks down to -29.32 on 5/31, -64.63 on 5/24 and -31.31 on 5/12.
The 30 day average was rising at +2.39, Recent max lows were -19.26 on 2/20, -10.43 on 11/16 and -15.70 on 9/23.
The 90 day average was rising some at -3.91. Recent max lows were -11.14 on 11/17, -11.85 on 10/15.
El Nino is collapsing

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan '98-Feb 2014) turning weakly positive March 2014 holding into June 2017 (up to +1.86 driven by the 2015-16 El Nino) then turned neutral. It went negative again 10/19 and hard negative in 10/21-10/23 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/23-2/24 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table