BUOY ROUNDUP
Saturday, March 23, 2024 :

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Saturday (3/23) in North and Central CA waves were 2 ft overhead and warbled and chopped and ill -formed and mushed with modest chop intermixed. Not a surf day. Protected breaks were head high to 1 ft overhead and lined up but a bit warbled and closed out. At Santa Cruz surf was head high and lined up but a bit raw and warbled but with reasonably clean conditions and with poor form. In Southern California/Ventura waves were waist to chest high and lined up with decent form and fairly clean but with some surface texture from modest northwest local wind and soft. Central Orange County had waves at maybe waist high and weak and mushed and pretty warbled from strong southerly wind. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had waves at waist to chest high and lined up with decent form but a bit warbled from southerly wind. North San Diego had waves at waist to chest high on the sets and lined up but pretty closed out and warbled from southerly wind and not very good. Oahu's North Shore had waves at up to head high on the sets and lined up with decent form and fairly clean but with sideshore warble intermixed. The South Shore was thigh high on the sets and weak and soft but clean. The East Shore was getting some east windswell at waist to chest high and chopped from moderate east trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Saturday (3/23) California was getting fading swell from a a gale that developed west of the dateline Sat-Mon (3/18) with 37 ft sea aimed east and making it to the dateline before fading (Second Japan Gale) but buried in local windswell. Hawaii was getting fading swell from another gale developing behind that on the same track Mon-Wed (3/20) but with only 27 ft seas aimed east (Third Japan Gale). A fraction of that swell will reach California on Mon (3/25). Another gale developed behind that Wed-Sat (3/23) with 38 ft seas aimed east. And yet another is possible developing off South Oregon on Tues (3/26) with 28 ft seas aimed southeast. And yet another is forecast in the Gulf Wed-Thurs (3/28) with up to 32 ft seas aimed southeast. And another is forecast developing while tracking towards the dateline Wed-Thurs (3/28) with up to 24 ft seas aimed east-northeast and not very impressive. And down south swell was still hitting southern CA from a gale that developed under New Zealand Sun-Mon (3/11) with 35 ft seas aimed mostly east. And another gael developed under New Zealand Wed-Thurs (3/21) with up to 32 ft seas aimed east, but not expected to radiate well up into the Northern Hemisphere. Summer is trying to get an early start while Winter holds on.

See all the details below...

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Saturday (3/23) the jet was consolidated from Japan to the Central Gulf reaching to 150W forming a broad trough just west of the dateline supportive of gale development with winds 160 kts mainly in the eastern portion of the trough. East of there the jet split but was producing another trough off the PAcific Northwest coast being fed by 130-140 kts winds offering support for gale development. Over the next 72 hours the jet is to become fully consolidated on Sun (3/24) running from Japan through the trough over the dateline and then ridging some over the Gulf only to fall into the new trough off the US West Coast pushing inland over Southern CA with winds at least 140 kts and up to 160 kts in pockets offering support for gale formation in the aforementioned troughs. The dateline trough is to push east to a point north of Hawaii on Tues (3/26) still supportive of gale formation while the trough off the US West Coast holds centered just inland over California offering support for weather there. Beyond 72 hours the jet is to remain consolidated tracking east across the North Pacific roughly on the 42N latitude line on Wed (3/27) with winds 140-150 kts in pockets with a trough off Japan and another off the US West Coast both supportive of gale development. The Japan trough is to east northeast and pretty weak over the dateline on Fri (3/29) while a ridge builds over the Western Gulf reaching up to the East Aleutians with the jet then falling southeast still feeding a trough off the US West Coast being fed by 150 kts winds offering support for gale formation and weather into the California with a backdoor trough still holding off Central CA on Sat (3/30) supporting weather and gale formation. But, on Fri (3/29) the jet is to start splitting on the dateline suggesting a weaker pattern beyond, likely attributable to the MJO moving east of the Pacific.

Surface Analysis
On Saturday (3/23) swell was fading in California originating from a second gale that tracked off Japan (see Second Japan Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours swell from a third gale is to be hitting Hawaii and propagating towards California (see Third Japan Gale below). And swell from a fourth system is to be tracking east (see Fourth Japan Gale below).

Second Japan Gale
Another gale developed while pushing east off North Japan on Sat AM (3/16) producing west winds at 45-50 kts and seas building from 23 ft at 37.5N 158E aimed east. In the evening the gale tracked east with 45-50 kt west winds and seas 35 ft at 39.5N 165.75E aimed east. On Sun AM (3/17) the gale continued east nearly reaching the dateline with 40 kt west winds and seas 36 ft at 39.25N 172.25E aimed east. The gale was fading in the evening while moving over the dateline with 35-40 kts west winds over a moderate area and seas 31 ft at 39.5N 178.5E aimed east. Fetch dissipating Mon AM (3/18) from 30-35 kts with seas fading from 26 ft on the dateline at 39.5N 179W aimed east. Something to monitor.

North CA: Swell fading on Sat (3/23) from 2.8 ft @ 13-14 secs early (3.5-4.0 ft). Swell Direction: 290 degrees

Third Japan Gale
And yet another gale started building while pushing off Japan Mon PM (3/18) with 40 kt west winds and seas building from 25 ft at 40.5N 153.5E aimed east. On Tues AM (3/19) west winds were fading in coverage at 35-40 kts with seas 27 ft over a modest sized area at 41.5N 157.5E aimed east. Fetch held in the evening from 35-40 kts with seas 27 ft at 38.5N 161E aimed east. Fetch was fading Wed AM (3/20) half way to the dateline at 35 kts with 26 ft seas at 40.5N 162.5E aimed east. The gale to dissipate in the evening with seas fading from 23 ft at 40.5N 170E aimed east. Something to monitor.

Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Sat (3/23) building to 3.4 ft @ 15-16 secs later (5.0 ft). Swell fading on Sun (3/24) from 2.9 ft @ 14 secs early (4.0 ft). Swell Direction: 310 degrees

North CA: Swell arrival on Mon (3/25) but tiny and buried in locally generated windswell.

Fourth Japan Gale
Yet another gale developed off Central Japan on Wed PM (3/20) with 45-50 kt northwest winds and seas 33 ft at 35N 147E aimed east. On Thurs AM (3/21) the gale was tracking east with 45 kt west winds with seas 38 ft over a small area at 35N 155E aimed east. The gale was tracking east in the evening with 40 kts west winds and seas 35 ft at 36N 161.5E aimed east. On Fri AM (3/22) the gale was approaching the dateline with west winds 40 kts and seas 33 ft at 37N 170.25E aimed east. Fetch fading in the evening while the gale lifts east-northeast over the dateline with west winds 35-40 kts with seas fading from 30 ft at 39.5N 177.5E aimed east. The gale moved into the Northwestern Gulf on Sat AM (3/23) with west winds 30-35 kts and seas fading from 26 ft over a solid area at 43.25N 178W aimed east. The gale fading in the evening with west winds 30-35 kts and seas fading from 26 ft at 45N 169.75W aimed east. Something to monitor.

Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Mon (3/25) building to 4.5 ft @ 16 secs (7.5 ft) mid-AM. Swell fading Tues AM (3/26) from 3.4 ft @ 14-15 secs early (4.5 ft). Residuals on Wed AM (3/27) fading from 2.5 ft @ 12 secs (3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 310 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Wed (3/27) building to 5.3 ft @ 17 secs early (9.0 ft). Swell fading on Thurs (3/28) from 5.8 ft @ 14 secs 98.0 ft) and being overtaken by local swell. Swell Direction: 293-296 degrees

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

Tropical Update
No tropical systems of interest were being tracked.

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at 51, 55, 57 and 23 inches with some 3/23-3/24 and another 3/27 with more through 3/30.

Freeze Level for Tahoe Ski Resorts: Freeze Levels 5000 ft today through 3/25 rising to 7,000 ft on 3/26-27 falling to 5,000 ft through 3/29 then rising to 6,500 ft on 3/30 and way up beyond. A short blast of Winter to return.

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Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for Resort specific forecasts).

South Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
Swell from a gale that developed under New Zealand is radiating northeast weakly (see New Zealand Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems are forecast. But swell from a weak Gale previously under New Zealand is radiating northeast (see Weak New Zealand Gale below). And small swell is possible from a gale that formed on the eastern edge of the CA swell window (see Southeast Pacific Gale below).

New Zealand Gale
A gale developed under New Zealand on Sun AM (3/10) producing southwest winds at 45 kts over a solid area aimed northeast with seas building from 35 ft at 55.25S 167.25E aimed northeast. In the evening southwest winds were fading in coverage from 40-45 kts from the southwest and falling south with seas 35 ft at 61.25S 169.75E aimed northeast. Fetch was fading in coverage Mon AM (3/11) from 40 kts with seas fading from 35 ft at 60.75S 179E aimed northeast. The gale dissipated from there.

Southern CA: Swell fading on Sat (3/23) from 1.4 ft @ 14-15 secs early (2.0 ft). Swell fading out on Sun (3/24) from 1.1 ft @ 13-14 secs early (1.5 ft). Swell Direction: 213 moving to 207 degrees

Weak New Zealand Gale
A gale developed under New Zealand while falling southeast on Wed PM (3/20) producing west winds at 40 kts with seas building to 32 ft at 60.75S 172.75E. On Thurs AM (3/21) west winds were 35 kts aimed east with seas 28 ft at 62.75S 178.25W aimed east. Fetch fading while falling southeast in the evening with southwest winds 35 kts and seas 26 ft at 63.25S 157.5W aimed east. Fetch dissipating from there. No swell expected to result for Hawaii.

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Sat (3/30) building to 0.8 ft @ 18-19 secs late (1.0-1.5 ft). Swell building through the day Sun (3/31) reaching 1.1 ft @ 16-17 secs later (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell peaking on Mon (4/1) at 1.3 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.0 ft). Swell fading on Tues (4/2) from 1.2 ft @ 14-15 secs (1.5 ft). Residuals on Wed (4/3) fading from 1.2 ft @ 13-14 secs early (1.5 ft). Swell Direction: 199 degrees

Southeast Pacific Gale
On Fri AM (3/22) a gale developed in the upper reaches of the far Southeast Pacific producing south winds at 35 kts and seas building near 40S 122W aimed north. in the evening south winds were 45+ kts aimed north with seas 30 ft at 39.25S 133.75W. on Sat AM (3/23) south fetch was fading from 35 kts with seas fading from 25 ft at 36S 113W aimed northeast. Small sideband swell possible for Southern CA with most energy focused on Peru and Central America.

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Sat (3/30) building to 1.4 ft @ 15 secs later (2.0 ft). Swell peaking Sun AM (3/31) at 1.6 ft @ 14 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell fading Mon (4/1) from 1.5 ft @ 12-13 secs early (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 175-180 degrees

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours a small gale is forecast developing in the Gulf Tues AM (3/26) with 25-30 kt northwest winds over a small area and seas building. In the evening northwest winds to be 30-35 kts off the Pacific Northwest with seas building from 22 ft at 45N 140W aimed east. On Wed AM (3/27) the gale is to be rebuilding.reorganizing off Oregon with 40 kt northwest winds and seas 26 ft at 46.25N 135.75W aimed east. The gael is to peak in the afternoon off the OR-CA border with northwest winds 45 kts and seas 25 ft at 44N 134.5W aimed southeast. On Thurs AM (3/28) the gael is to be moving over Oregon with 30-35 kts west winds off the coast there and seas 25 ft at 43N 132W aimed southeast. In the evening secondary fetch is to build well of North CA from the northwest at 30 kts with seas 21 ft at 40N 140W aimed southeast. On Fri AM (3/29) fetch is to fall southeast fast at 35 kts with seas building to 27 ft at 35N 133.5W or off Central Ca targeting Central and Southern CA well. The gale is to build in the evening nearly impacting Pt Conception with 30-35 kts northwest winds and seas 23-24 ft at 33N 130W targeting Southern CA and Baja well. On Sat AM (3/30) fetch is to be just off Pt Conception at 30 kts from the northwest with seas fading from 21 ft at 32.5N 126W targeting the same area. The gale to fade from there. Raw swell possible for the California.

And yet another ill formed gale is forecast pushing east off Japan Wed AM (3/27) with west winds 40 kts and seas building from 24 ft at 37N 166E aimed east. In the evening the gale is to be racing northeast with 35-40 kt west winds and seas 26 ft at 43.75N 176.5E aimed east. On Thurs AM (3/28) the gale is to be lifting northeast over the North Dateline region with 30-35 kts southwest winds and seas 26 ft up at 48.25N 179.5W aimed east. In the evening west winds to hold at near 35 kts over the Central Aleutians with seas 34 ft at 51.5N 175.75W aimed east. The gale to move into the East Bering Sea after that. Something to monitor.

all the above gale formation is likely fueled by the Active MJO moving east over the equatorial Pacific. The MJO is likely to be east of the Pacific by Mon (3/31) with support for gale formation decreasing markedly thereafter.

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no meaningful swell producing weather systems are forecast.

MJO/ENSO Forecast

La Nina Arrives -
Active MJO Builds Too
NINO3.4 SST Anomalies Starting to Fade
9 Kelvin Waves traversed the Pacific from Dec '22 through Dec 2023 erupting off Ecuador setting up El Nino for the Winter of 23-24. But now cold water has traversed the subsurface equatorial Pacific and is starting to erupt off the coast of Ecuador with the remaining warm pool created by El Nino starting to dissipate in the East Equatorial Pacific. Regardless, the atmosphere is still in El Nino mode and will continue from previous momentum while slowly fading through Fall of 2024.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023.

Rationale: A 3 year La Nina started fading in Jan 2023 and was gone by April. 6 Active MJO's produced 6 Kelvin Waves over early to mid 2023 with Kelvin Wave #7 in August building over the West Pacific and the 4th, 5th and 6th backed up off Ecuador now (10/20/23). The CFS model is predicting steady west anomalies from here forward and the leading edge of the low pressure bias moving over California now filling the Pacific. We are now under an El Nino status. We are moving into a period of enhanced storm production (starting late Sept 2023) and beyond, getting intense come late Fall and early Winter. This should result in an above normal level of swells, with swells being longer than normal duration from here forward as El Nino gets a stronger footprint on the atmosphere. The net result is a well above normal number of swells with above normal size and duration (i.e 15 significant class swells perhaps). Last year there were 0 and year before 5 or less.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (3/22) 5 day average winds were strong east over the East equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were modest east over East equatorial Pacific and neutral to light west over the Central Pacific and neutral over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (3/23) East anomalies are building at near strong status nearly filling the KWGA with weak west anomalies were from the dateline and east over the East Equatorial Pacific. The forecast indicates no meaningful change is forecast through the end of the model run on 4/8.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (3/23) Today in the far West Pacific the 30 deg isotherm is gone. The 29 degree isotherm was easing west wavering near 177W. The 28 deg isotherm line was retrograding east from 140W and was mostly just warm anomalies from off Ecuador being pushed west by trade winds. The 24 degree isotherm extended the whole way across the Pacific and was shallow but stable in the east at 20m deep. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies were losing coverage and now only +1 deg while getting compressed to the surface fast under the East Pacific from Ecuador west then thicker out to the dateline. El Nino is gone subsurface. Cold water at -2 degs was filling the entire Equatorial Pacific below 150m in the west rising to 20m in the east with a core to -4 degs just east of the dateline down 150m. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 3/19 indicates cold water in control from Ecuador west to 125W. The remnant warm surface water from El Nino getting pushed west by trades starting at 120W and points west of there. Cold water was filling the entire equatorial Pacific thermocline below it. La Nina is developing. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (3/19) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were negative at -5 cms over the entire area and -10 cms from the Galapagos to 135W and building in density. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (3/19) cold water was filling the Equatorial Pacific and -0.5 to -1.5 degs east of 140W. El Nino is gone from the subsurface perspective and now clearly turning to La Nina.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (3/22) The latest images depict a moderate warm stream from Ecuador uniformly covering the area on the equator west to 160W but steadily losing density with 2 cool pockets interspersed between Ecuador and 100W. There is still an El Nino signal present but now the beginnings of a cold La Nina signal are starting to emerge from the depths up to the oceans surface.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (3/22): A solid cooling pocket was along Ecuador with another west of the Galapagos. Warming was on the equator from 110W out to the dateline and actually building. A warming trend that has been well entrenched over the East Pacific since Nov 1 2022 is all but gone.
Hi-res Overview: (3/22) Warmer than normal waters are filling the Equatorial Pacific from Ecuador to the dateline but neutral if not cooler pockets were starting to emerge from Ecuador to 120W. The classic El Nino tongue of warm water is still present but slowly losing it's density on the equator west to the dateline. Everything still looks like El Nino but the beginnings of La Nina are developing at the surface.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (3/23) (The official OISST temp record runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were steady at -0.075 and have been below 0 since 3/19. Temps previously were up at +1.024 degs on 3/12 and that was fading from +1.161 after peaking at +1.197 on 2/13 as the last of warm subsurface water got squeezed upwards. Temps were up from +0.502 on 2/4 and had been toggling in the +0.6 degs range since 12/30, previously up into the +2.0 range in early Nov. .
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (3/23) (OISST runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were steady at +1.171 the past 2 days after dipping some the previous 5 days. Temps had been at +1.2 degs or higher since 1/13. Temps had been in the +1.5 range 11/19-1/12. Weekly OISST are +1.1 degs (week of 3/130, +1.4 (3/6), +1.3 (2/28), +1.5 (2/14 & 2/21) +1.7 (2/7), +1.8 (1/31). +1.7 (1/24 & 1/17) up at +1.9 (1/10 & 1/3), +2.0 (12/27, 12/20 and 12/13) after being at +1.9 (12/6), +2.0 (11/29) and +2.1 (11/22 - the highest), then +1.9 (11/15) and +1.8 degs (11/8 & 11/1). Monthly Data is +1.72 Oct, +2.02 Nov, +2.02 Dec and +1.82 Jan and +1.56 Feb. The 3 month ONI is +1.8 for the 3 month period DJF and +2.0 ft for NDJ (bare minimal Super El Nino status). All others were less than that.

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose to +0.50 degs mid-May, +0.9 degs in mid-June, and +1.05 mid July reaching up to +1.30 degs early Aug, +1.6 degs in Sept holding in Oct and , +1.95 in Nov, +2.0 in Dec and +1.85 in Jan and +1.65 in Feb.
Forecast (3/23) - Temps to fall to +0.5 degs mid-April, -0.5 late May and -2.25 degs in Nov/Dec 2024. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same thing but with temps falling to only -1.6 degs in Oct and leveling off there. According to this version of the model we are past the peak of a strong El Nino.
IRI Consensus Plume: The March 19, 2024 Plume (all models) depicts temps are +0.760 degs today and its the 11th month above the La Nina threshold. Temps to fall steadily from here forward down to 0.326 in April (that's a 3 months running mean) then fading from there down to -1.011 in Sept and holding there. The Dynamic model suggest temps falling to -1.097 in Sept and the Statistic down to -1.021 in Oct.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (3/23) the Daily Index was positive at 3.68 today. The daily SOI turned mostly positive on 2/20 after a 28 day negative peaking down at -46.54 on 2/9. It was positive and up to +31.61 on 1/6 and had been rising the previous 10 days. It had been effectively neutral 11/20/23 through 1/10/24. This was not consistent with El Nino. Previously it was negative for 29 days (7/14-8/11) with a peak down to -37.30 on 7/25 and negative previously to 7/12 with peaks down to -29.32 on 5/31, -64.63 on 5/24 and -31.31 on 5/12.
The 30 day average was rising at +2.58, Recent max lows were -19.26 on 2/20, -10.43 on 11/16 and -15.70 on 9/23.
The 90 day average was rising some at -3.08. Recent max lows were -11.14 on 11/17, -11.85 on 10/15.
El Nino is collapsing

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan '98-Feb 2014) turning weakly positive March 2014 holding into June 2017 (up to +1.86 driven by the 2015-16 El Nino) then turned neutral. It went negative again 10/19 and hard negative in 10/21-10/23 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/23-2/24 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table