Pacific Storm & Surf Forecast (Stormsurf)

Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt)/Buoy 239 (Lani): Seas were 3.3 ft @ 7.7 secs with swell 2.5 ft @ 7.9 secs from 170 degrees. Water temp 76.8 degs (Barbers Pt), 76.8 (Pearl Harbor 233), 77.4 (Lani 239).
Buoy 106 (Waimea): Out of Service Buoy 202 (Hanalei) Seas were 9.3 ft @ 9.9 secs with swell 6.4 ft @ 9.5 secs from 271 degrees. Water temp 74.3 degs
Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 3.3 ft @ 14.7 secs with swell 1.7 ft @ 14.0 secs from 213 degrees. Wind east at 4-6 kts. Water temperature 56.5 degs, 57.6 (Topanga 103), 53.4 degs (Long Beach 215), 57.2 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 56.2 (Del Mar 153), 57.2 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 3.8 ft @ 12.7 secs from 296 degrees. At E. Santa Barbara (46053) swell was 2.4 ft @ 12.1 secs from 287 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.5 ft @ 14.9 secs from 202 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 2.3 ft @ 13.8 secs from 205 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 2.8 ft @ 13.8 secs from 231 degrees. Water temperature was 57.2 degrees.
Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay) Out of Service /029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 8.8 ft @ 13.3 secs with swell 5.3 ft @ 12.4 secs from 297 degrees. Wind northwest at 20-23 kts (46026). Water temp 50.9 (Bodega Bay 46013), 53.2 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 53.1 (San Francisco 46026), 52.3 (SF Bar 142), 54.7 (Pt Santa Cruz 254) and NA (Monterey Bay 46042).

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Tuesday (4/11) North and Central CA had sets at 1-2 ft overhead and lined up with decent form but pretty warbled bordering on whitecapped from northwest winds early. Protected breaks were chest high and lined up if not closed out and warbled from northwest wind but not whitecapped. At Santa Cruz surf was waist to near chest thigh and lined up with decent form and clean but mushed and very weak. In Southern California/Ventura waves were waist high and reasonably lined up and clean but mushed with some intermixed warble. Central Orange County had sets at waist to near chest high and somewhat lined up and soft if not mushed and clean. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had chest high sets on the peak and lined up and clean with decent form but soft. North San Diego had sets at waist high and lined up and soft but clean. Hawaii's North Shore was getting some waves at chest to near head high and somewhat lined up with reasonable form and fairly clean but with some warble running through it. The South Shore was flat to thigh high and clean but soft. The East Shore was 1 ft overhead and chopped from strong east-northeast trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Tuesday (4/11) California was getting leftover swell from a small gale that tracked east through the Gulf of Alaska Wed-Sat (4/8) producing up to 26 ft seas off Washington. Hawaii was getting trade wind generated easterly windswell. Secondary fetch developed directly behind the Gulf low above producing 17-18 ft seas Sat-Sun (4/9) in the Central Gulf aimed southeast at the US West Coast. That windswell is hitting North and Central CA now. A broad low pressure system is forecast developing in the Gulf Sat-Ties (4/18) producing 18 ft seas aimed at the US West Coast. Maybe some windswell to result. Otherwise nothing else is forecast either in the North or South Pacific.

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

Overview
Jetstream
On Tuesday (4/11) the jetstream was split just west of the dateline with the northern branch pushing northeast up to the Eastern Aleutians then falling southeast forming a tight trough supporting low pressure development and poised to impact Washington making for mostly only weather there. The southern branch was tracking east over HAwaii and dissolving east of there offering nothing. Over the next 72 hours no change as forecast other than the Gulf trough moving inland. Beyond 72 hours starting Fri (3/14) more of the same is forecast but with the jet falling southeast from the Eastern Aleutians starting to carve out a new trough being fed by only 90 kts winds but building on Sat (4/15) to 150 kts offering good support for gale development. That trough is to ease east while holding shape offering more support for gale or at least low pressure development into Tues (4/18) then starting to impact North CA producing weather there. Back to the west the split point is to hold just west of the dateline with the northern branch ridging hard north up into the Bering Sea then falling south over the Gulf as previously detailed. No support for gale development other than that Gulf trough.

Surface Analysis
On Tuesday (4/11) swell from a gale and associated secondary fetch previously over the Gulf of Alaska was hitting California (see Gulf Gale below).

Gulf Gale
On Wed PM (4/5) a gale developed on the dateline moving towards the Western Gulf of Alaska producing west winds at 35-40 kts and seas building at 43N 180W aimed east. On Thurs AM (4/6) winds were 35 kts from the west in the far Western Gulf with seas building to 22 ft at 44N 171.25W aimed east. In the evening fetch was building to 35-40 kts over the Western Gulf with seas 22 ft at 44.25N 164.25W aimed east. On Fri AM the gale was in the Central Gulf and building with 40-45 kt northwest winds and seas 23 ft at 46.5N 154.25W aimed east. In the evening the gale is to track east with 40 kt northwest winds off Washington and seas 26 ft at 48.25N 146.25W aimed east. On Sat AM (4/8) the gale was fading while starting to lift northeast off British Columbia with 35 kt west winds extending from the Western Gulf into Oregon and seas 26 ft at 48.75N 139.25W. In the evening west winds to continue at 35 kts off Central Canada with seas 22 ft impacting the coast. The gale to fade from there.

North CA: Swell fading on Tues (4/11) from 4.5 ft @ 12 secs (5.5 ft) with windswell building on top. Swell Direction: 299 degrees and shadowed in the SF Bay Area.

Southern CA: Swell building early Tues (4/11) to 2.3 ft @ 12-13 secs early (2.5-3.0 ft) at exposed breaks but then being overtaken by windswell later. Swell Direction: 300-305 degrees

And swell from secondary fetch started developing on Fri (4/7) while falling southeast from the Eastern Aleutians producing 30 kt northwest winds starting to get traction. On Sat AM (4/8) fetch was over the Central Gulf at 30-35 kts producing 19 ft seas at 46N 162W aimed southeast. In the evening northwest winds were fading from 30 kts with seas 18 ft at 43N 156W aimed southeast. Fetch and seas faded from there. Backup windswell is to reach the US West Coast on Tues (4/11).

Tropical Update
No tropical systems of interest are being monitored at this time.

Wed AM (4/12) high pressure and northwest winds to take over at 20 kts for North CA early and 25 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 25-30 kts for North CA and 25 kts for Central CA. Light rain for Cape Mendocino.
Thurs AM (4/13) northwest winds to be 20-25 kts for North CA and 25+ kts for Central CA off the coast early but 15 kts nearshore. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 25 kts for North CA and 20-25 kts for Central CA. No precip forecast.
Fri AM (4/14) northwest winds are forecast at 15 kts for North CA and 10-15 for Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 15 kts for North CA and 10-15 kts for Central CA.
Sat AM (4/15) northwest winds to be 10 kts for North CA and 10-15 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 10 kts for North CA and 10-15 kts for Central CA.
Sun AM (4/16) northwest winds to be 10 kts early and 5 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon west winds to be 5 kts for North CA and 5-10 kts for Central CA.
Mon AM (4/17) a weak front is to arrive with west winds to be 10-15 ks for North CA early and 10 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon low pressure is to be approaching with south winds 15-20 kts for Cape Mendocino early and southwest 10 kts south of there and northwest 10 kts for Central CA. The front is to blow through in the early evening. Rain for North CA early building south to Big Sur mid AM then clearing in the afternoon. Snow for Tahoe during the day.
Tues AM (4/18) the main front arrives with west winds 5 kts for North CA early and south winds 5 kts for Central CA. Rain for North CA early building south to Morro Bay mid-day. Light snow for Tahoe starting mid-AM holding through the day.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at 14, 18, 11, and 0.5 inches with accumulation 4/17-19.

Freezing level for Lake Tahoe is 9,500 ft falling to 6,500 ft on the evening of 4/12 then rebuilding from 7,000 ft to 10,000 ft 4/13-4/17 before falling to 5,000 ft on 4/18 and holding there.

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Overview
Surface Analysis
No swell producing weather systems of interest have occurred.

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

Beyond 72 hours a low pressure system is forecast developing in the Central Gulf on Sat AM (4/15) producing 30 kt northwest winds and seas building to 15 ft at 48N 1535W aimed southeast. In the evening 25+ kt north west winds to continue over the Gulf generating 15 ft seas at 45N 160W aimed southeast. On Sun AM (4/16) northwest winds to build to 30 kts with seas barely 14 ft at 43N 145W aimed southeast. In the afternoon northwest winds to hold at 25-30 kts with seas 13 ft at 40N 142W aimed southeast. On Mon AM (4/17) northwest winds to build again to 30 kts with seas 18 ft over a small area at 43.5N 141W aimed southeast. In the evening northwest winds to continue at 25-30 kts with seas 23 ft at 40.25N 134.5W aimed southeast. On Tues AM (4/18) fetch is to be holding while approaching North CA with 22 ft seas at 41.25N 128W just off Cape Mendocino and impacting the coast in the evening. Seems like quite a reach.

Beyond 72 hours the models keep teasing concerning some sort of a gale developing in the Southwest Pacific a week out, only to disappear from the models a day or two later. The models are depicting another such system today. We have no faith that gale will ever develop.

Major Global Weather Pattern Change Occurring - El Nino Developing
Kelvin Wave #2 in Flight - Active MJO #3 Strong - Equatorial Sea Surface Temps Rising Fast
1 Kelvin Wave traversed the Pacific in Dec '22 with Kelvin Wave #2 in-flight and Kevin Wave #3 developing now. And Westerly Winds are fully established filling the KWGA and forecast filling the Pacific over the next month. And Sea Surface Temperatures are warming to neutral. The last link in the chain is to see the SOI falling (which it is showing preliminary signs of doing). The outlook is turning optimistic.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. A slow dissolving of La Nina started in March 2021 with 2 Kelvin Waves sweeping east and arriving over the Galapagos in June. Weak warming set up over the equator with no cool waters present. NOAA declared La Nina dead. But cold water returned in July 2021 and a second pulse of La Nina developed through the Winter of 2022. But in late Fall 2022 trades started fading a by early 22023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing.

Rationale: It was assumed that the moderate La Nina from the Winter of 2020/2021 was on the wane and that a return to neutral ENSO state would set up over the Pacific Basin through the summer of 2021. But La Nina made a strong return by the end of Sept much like what the CFS model suggested would happen and a full double dip pattern took hold through the Winter of 21/22. But a quick fade is forecast as we move into late December 2022 with the CFS predicting a return to a neutral wind anomaly pattern and the low pressure bias making headway in to the KWGA in early Jan. Still it will take some time for the atmosphere to fully respond, resulting in a less than normal swell production forecast especially for Fall into early Winter 2022. But by later in Jan or early Feb 2023 a return to a more normal pattern might take hold. As a result a significantly reduced number of storm days and storm intensity is expected Oct 22-Jan 23, resulting in a below normal level of swells, with swell being below normal duration and period. But by Feb 2023, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start improving as La Nina fades out. The net result is we're currently thinking a near normal number of swells with normal size and duration is to result, but all focused sometime after Jan 2023. The swell pattern will be below normal before Jan and above normal after Jan 23 with the average of the two being 'normal'. Of course this is all highly speculative at this early date.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (4/10) 5 day average winds were modest from the east over the East equatorial Pacific and moderate east over the Central Pacific and moderate east over the KWGA. Anomalies were moderate westerly over the East equatorial Pacific and neutral over the Central Pacific and modest east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (4/11) West anomalies were filling the KWGA and moderate to strong west of the dateline. The 7 day forecast has west anomalies building over the KWGA and getting strong from 4/15 through the end of the model run on 4/18 just west of the dateline. No east anomalies are forecast. Quite a change.

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (4/10) A moderate Active MJO was in control of the KWGA today. The statistical model indicates a moderates Active MJO is to hold stationary over the KWGA on day 5 fading some on day 10 then gone on day 15 as the Inactive Phase weakly building in. The dynamic model indicates the Active Phase holding a moderate status through day 15 of the model run holding over the KWGA.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (4/11) The statistical model depicts the Active signal was moderate over the West Pacific and is to move to the East Atlantic 2 weeks from now and weak. The dynamic model indicates the Active Phase stationary over the West Pacific for the next 6 days at moderate strength then tracking east and over the Atlantic on day 15 and weak.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (4/11) A modest Active (wet air) pattern was over the West Pacific today. The forecast has the Active signal (wet air) slowly easing east over the KWGA and filling the bulk of the Pacific on 4/16 then starting to ease over the East Pacific on 4/21 and into Ecuador through 5/1-5/11 with a weak Inactive Phase of the MJO (dry air) developing over the KWGA on 4/26 easing east and over the Central and East Pacific at the end of the model run on 5/21. Another Active Phase (wet air) is to start developing over the far West Pacific at the end of the model run.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (4/10) The Inactive Phase of the MJO was all but gone over the dateline today with no east anomalies remaining. West anomalies and the Active Phase of the MJO are filling the KWGA up to the dateline. The forecast has west anomalies and the Active Phase building filling the KWGA and hitting strong status while peaking 4/13-4/21, then fading while moving east to the dateline on 4/26. After that neutral MJO and wind anomaly pattern are forecast through the end of the model run on 5/8.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (4/11) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today the Active Phase of the MJO was in control of the KWGA with west anomalies strong to 165E. The forecast indicates the Active Phase of the MJO and west anomalies are to continue building over the KWGA filling it 4/14-5/5 with strong west anomalies over that area. A Westerly Wind Burst (WWB) seems likely starting 4/9 through 5/5. After that a weak Inactive Phase is forecast 4/22-5/23 but with modest to moderate west anomalies holding and filling the KWGA. A weak Active Phase is to follow starting 6/1 with west anomalies building and filling the KWGA a strong status through the end of the model run on 7/9. A solid El Nino is developing. The shift to El Nino started on 2/15. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias with 1 contour line centered at 135W with its western perimeter at 170W today and just about east of the KWGA moving east fast and forecast east of the KWGA by 4/20. A broad low pressure bias is established centered over the West Maritime Continent at 120E with it's leading edge steadily pushing east at 175E today (it started pushing east on 2/15). A hard push east is to continue moving forward and on the dateline 4/25 filling the KWGA and then filling the most of the Pacific with it's leading edge at 135W at the end of the model run with it's center at 170E. This is all a big deal and is being repeated in some form consistently from one run of the model to the next since Oct 2022. It appears an El Nino is developing.

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (4/11) Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was retrograding west from some from 170 to 168E. The 28 deg isotherm line was easing east to 174W. The 26 degree isotherm has pushed the whole way across the Pacific. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies at +2-3 deg C were in a river traversing the Pacific. Amazing. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 4/3 indicates a huge very warm ball of 3+ degs anomalies centered at 170W stretching from the far West Pacific and reaching east to 110W (leading edge of Kelvin Wave #2) and then upwards across and into the East Pacific with +4 degs anomalies there. And another pocket of warming waters were in the far West PAcific at 125E at +5 degs. No cool anomalies were indicated. El Nino is developing. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (4/3) Sea heights were positive across the equatorial Pacific connected to the East Pacific at +5 cms over the entirety of it's width reaching east to Ecuador and building to +5-10 cms there. This means no cool water was at depth. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram warm water continues building in intensity and coverage in the West to 115W at +1.75 degs connected to a second pocket starting at 105W at at +1.0-1.5 degs reaching east to Ecuador.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (4/10) The latest images depict a strong warm signal along the coasts of Peru and Ecuador with a tongue extending west along the equator from Ecuador reaching to 125W (previously 130W - results of Kelvin Wave #1) and building in intensity. Warm temps continue west on the equator west of the dateline. This is a clear El Nino signal. And warmer than normal temps were present well off the coasts of Chile and Peru and building in intensity and weaker over the entirety of the deep South Pacific. The last remnants of La Nina are gone and a clear El Nino signal is building. .
Hi-res 7 day Trend (4/10): A neutral pattern was along the coasts of Peru and Chile. But a solid stream of intensely warming temps was extending west from Ecuador to 120W and lesser to 140W and even beyond that to 165W. No cooling waters were indicated. So the pattern of adding energy to the warm surface pool has restarted. A warming trend has been well entrenched over the East Pacific since Nov 1 with no cooling waters over the equatorial East Pacific since 12/15 except for the time frame from 4/23 to today.
Hi-res Overview: (4/10) Warming waters are filling the East Pacific off Chile, Peru and Ecuador with strong warming along the immediate cost of Peru and Ecuador. And an El Nino tongue of more intense warming is redeveloping on the equator west to 125W and from there to the dateline and beyond. No cool waters were on the equator anymore. There no sign of La Nina on the oceans surface and everything is now looking like El Nino. The east equatorial Pacific is finally and steadily warming.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (4/11) (These temps are biased high by about 0.2 degs compared to official sources). Today's temps are on the increase again at +2.857 after previously peaking 4/6 at +2.302 degrees. Temps rose to +1.732 degs (3/22), up from +0.462 since 2/28. Temps had reached as high as +1.076 on 2/19 and were previously steady at +0.848 since 2/7. Previously they started steadily rising 11/13 when they were around -1.5 degs C.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (4/11) (These temps are biased high by about 0.2 degs). Temps were steady at -0.057 degs and have been more or less steady the past 4 weeks. Temps previously rose to -0.402 on 2/23. Temps rose above the La Nina threshold (-0.5 degs) on 2/22 and had been rising slowly since 2/12 when they were about -1.0 degs C. Then had been in the -1.0 deg range since at least Nov 2022.

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data
Previous - Temps rose in early Nov 2020 after bottoming out at -1.25 degs, up to -0.01 degs in mid-June 2021 then fading to -1.05 degs in mid-Nov then rebuilding to -0.7 in mid Feb 2022 then fading to -1.1 degs in May before starting an upward climb peaking in mid-June at -0.65 degs and mid July at -0.55 degs. A steady decline set in after that falling to -1.00 degs in Aug and Sept rising to -0.8 degs mid Oct then falling to -1.0 in Nov but then slowly rising to -0.75 degs in Jan 2023 and up to -0.5 degs above the La Nina threshold on 2/12.
Forecast (4/11) - Temps are neutral (0.0 degs) and are forecast rising to +1.40 degs in July and +2.25 degs in Nov and solidly into El Nino territory. The PDF Corrected forecast suggests temps are at neutral (0.0 degs) and are forecast rising to +1.05 degs in July and +1.75 degs in Nov. According to this version of the model we are building into ENSO neutral in Spring and into El Nino in Summer.
IRI Consensus Plume: The Mar 20, 2023 Plume depicts temps are +0.038 degs today and finally above the La nina threshold. Temps to rise steadily from here forward to +0.493 degs in May rising to +0.779 in July and holding there beyond. This is consistent with the previous run. This model suggests a transition to ENSO neutral if not weak El Nino. This model is in line with the CFS model.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (4/11) the Daily Index was positive at +0.43 and has been positive the last 7 days after being mostly negative the previous 25 days. It fell to -19.40 on 4/2. -17.44 on 2/22, the beginning of a change from which no return seemed likely. It was up to +21.85 on 2/10 and +55.74 on 12/22 and were in the +20 range the previous 22 days.
The 30 day average was rising at -1.04 after falling to -4.13 on 4/4 (lagging indicator driven by the Active Phase of the MJO) after falling to -0.52 on 3/22 previously falling to +4.18 on 11/27 and peaking at +21.57 (10/16) after supposedly peaking at +19.66 on 9/28. It was down to +6.89 on 7/29. It peaked at +20.34 (5/12) the highest in a year and beating last years high of +19.51 (1/14).
The 90 day average was steady at +5.01 after peaking at +14.63 on 2/20, +15.61 on 10/25 and +12.92 on 8/11 and that after peaking at +18.40 (7/2) beating it's previous peak of +16.86 (5/31), the highest in a year. It previously peaked at +9.80 (9/21) after falling to it's lowest point in a year at +1.06 (6/9). The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 (2/23/21 - clearly indicative of La Nina then). This index is a lagging indicator but suggests that the Active Phase occurring now is starting to drive the index down, hopefully with no upward trend in sight for at least a year.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative ever since, driven by recent La Nina conditions. In May-July 2021 it was the most negative its been in the -1.80 to -2.04 range since Sept 2012 (-2.99) and then fell to -3.16 in Oct 2021 (the lowest since July 1933) then settled at -2.72 in Nov and Dec 2021. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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