Pacific Storm & Surf Forecast (Stormsurf)

Buoy 239 (Lani)/Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt): Seas were 2.7 ft @ 10.5 secs with swell 1.2 ft @ 12.3 secs from 199 degrees. Water temp 77.2 (Barbers Pt), 76.5 (Pearl Harbor 233), 77.0 (Lani 239).
Buoy 187 (Pauwela): Seas were 6.2 ft @ 9.1 secs with swell 4.5 ft @ 9.0 secs from 84 degrees. Water temp 75.6 degs
Buoy 106 (Waimea)/Buoy 202 (Hanalei): Seas were 3.7 ft @ 11.8 secs with swell 1.9 ft @ 11.4 secs from 326 degrees. Water temp 77.0 degs
Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 4.0 ft @ 5.9 secs with swell 3.2 ft @ 6.4 secs from 272 degrees. Wind east at 6-8 kts. Water temperature 59.0 degs, 54.0 (Harvest 071), 61.0 (Topanga 103), 59.0 (Long Beach 215), 61.9 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 62.4 (Del Mar 153), 62.4 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 7.1 ft @ 8.0 secs from 308 degrees. At E. Santa Barbara (46053) swell was 2.9 ft @ 8.1 secs from 278 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 2.5 ft @ 7.9 secs from 277 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.2 ft @ 15.5 secs from 198 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 3.3 ft @ 8.0 secs from 286 degrees. Water temperature was 59.9 degrees (Imperial Beach).
Buoy 029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 6.4 ft @ 12.5 secs with swell 2.9 ft @ 13.1 secs from 296 degrees. Wind northwest at 20-23 kts (Bodega Bay 46013) and NA (Half Moon Bay 1801589) and NW at 10 kts (Monterey Bay (46092). Water temp NA (Bodega Bay 46013), 53.4 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 50.5 (San Francisco 46026), 55.8 (SF Bar 142), NA (1801589) and 53.8 (Monterey Bay 46092).

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Sunday (4/28) in North and Central CA waves were waist to chest high and chopped from brisk northwest wind with fog on top. Protected breaks were waist high or so and somewhat lined up but warbled and mushed with fog just above the water line. At Santa Cruz surf was waist to maybe chest high on a few stray peaks and weakly lined up but soft and inconsistent but clean. In Southern California/Ventura waves were thigh to maybe near waist high on the sets and slightly lined up but crumbled and warbled. Central Orange County had waves up to waist high on the sets and fairly lined up with decent form and clean but soft and weak coming from the north. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had waves up to waist high on the peak and somewhat lined up but soft and almost warbled coming from the northwest. North San Diego had waves at waist to maybe chest high on the peaks and somewhat lined up and warbled though wind was calm. Oahu's North Shore had waves at waist to chest high on the sets and lined up with decent form and clean with modest offshore wind. The South Shore had waves at thigh to waist high on the sets and weakly lined up with decent form and soft but clean. The East Shore was getting east windswell at chest high and chopped from brisk east-southeast trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Sunday (4/28) the North Shore of Hawaii was getting very limited swell from a gale previously over the North Dateline region that produced 24 ft seas on Tues (4/23). California and the South Shores of the Hawaiian Islands were getting no real swell of interest other than local northwest windswell (in CA). Of more interest is a small gale starting to develop in the Central South Pacific Sun-Tues (4/30) producing up to 39 ft seas over a modest sized area aimed well northeast. And another gael is forecast developing south of New Zealand Wed-Thurs (5/2) producing 33-35 ft seas aimed northeast. So there is some hope.

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Sunday (4/28) small swell was fading along the North Shores of the Hawaiian Islands from a gale previously over the North Dateline region (see North Dateline Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

North Dateline Gale
On Mon PM (4/22) a small gale developed in the South Bering Sea with 35 kt northwest winds pushing south of the Central Aleutians producing 21 ft seas at 50N 174E aimed southeast. On Tues AM (4/23) northwest winds were 35-40 kts with seas 25 ft over a tiny area at 50.75N 179.25W aimed southeast. Fetch is to dissipate after that.

Oahu: Small swell to be fading on Sun (4/28) from 1.7 ft @ 11-12 secs early (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 325 degrees

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Mon AM (4/28) high pressure builds more with northwest winds 20-30 kts for North CA early and mostly 25 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds build to 25-30 kts all locations over North and Central CA. Raw local northwest windswell developing.
Tues AM (4/29) low pressure is to be impacting North Oregon with high pressure off California producing northwest winds 20-25 kts for North and Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds build to 25-30 kts all locations north of Pt Conception. more raw windswell expected to result.
Wed AM (4/30) high pressure takes control with northwest winds 20-30 kts for all of North and Central CA early. In the afternoon the gradient fades some with northwest winds 20-25 kts for the same area. Raw northwest local windswell continues.
Thurs AM (5/1) the gradient relaxes a little more while lifting north with northwest winds 20-25 kts for North CA early and 15-20 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon the gradient starts fading with northwest winds 15-20 kts for North CA and 15 kts for Central CA and only 10 kts south of Monterey Bay. Windswell fading. Rain for Cape Mendocino.
Fri AM (5/2) northwest winds hold at 15-20 kts for North CA early and 10-15 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds fade to 15 kts for North CA and 10+ kts for Central CA. No meaningful windswell expected.
Sat AM (5/3) low pressure approaches from the northwest but with calm winds for all of North and Central CA early . No change in the afternoon as the low moves closer. Rain developing for North CA at sunset and building over all of North and Central CA in the evening.
Sun AM (5/4) low pressure is to hold off the coast with south winds 1-5 kts for all of North and Central CA early. Rain for all of North and Central CA early holding through mid-AM then fading in the afternoon while pushing south over all of Southern CA in the afternoon. Snow for the Sierra through the day.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at 8, 12, 13 and 1 inches all on Sun-Tues (5/7). This is not believable.

Freeze Level for Tahoe Ski Resorts: Freeze Level 8,500 ft today holding through 5/1 then rising to 10,000 ft through 5/4 before falling and down to 5,000 ft on 5/6.

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Overview
Jetstream
On Sun AM (4/28) the jet was split over the West and Central South Pacific with the southern branch of the jet tracking east under New Zealand at 120 kts starting to form a trough well southeast of New Zealand offering some support for gale formation. East of there a massive strong ridge was pushing over Antarctica actively suppressing support for gale development there. Over the next 72 hours the trough in the west is to get better defined on Mon (4/29) over the Central South Pacific being fed by 110 kt winds offering continued support for gale formation before starting to get cutoff on Tues (4/30) while moving east over the Southeast Pacific no longer supporting gale formation. A ridge is to be east and west of there remnants of the trough. Beyond 72 hours starting Wed (5/1) a new strong trough is forecast developing south of New Zealand being fed by 170 kts winds offering good support for gale formation. The trough is to push east and starting to get somewhat pinched on Thurs (5/2) but still being fed by 130-140 kts winds offering some degree of support for gale formation. And yet another trough is forecast rebuilding in the same area southwest of New Zealand on Sat-Sun (5/5) with 150 kts winds supporting gale formation pushing well east. perhaps a much better pattern is to set up focused on the area south of New Zealand.

Surface Analysis
On Sunday AM (4/28) swell from another small gale that developed southeast of New Zealand was hitting the US West Coast weakly (see Weak New Zealand Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours a new gale is forecast developing in the Central South Pacific with fetch aimed well northeast (see Central South Pacific Gale below).

And on Wed AM (5/1) a broad gale is forecast developing south of New Zealand with 40-50 kt southwest winds and seas building from 32 ft at 59S 157.5E aimed east-northeast. Fetch is to be lifting northeast in the afternoon at 40 kts with seas 35 ft at 54.25S 167.75E aimed northeast. On Thurs AM (5/2) southwest winds to build in coverage at 35-40 kts aimed well northeast with seas 35 ft at 53S 171.5E aimed well northeast. South-southwest fetch continues in the afternoon at 40-45 kts with seas 33 ft at 51.5S 180W aimed north-northeast. Fetch fading from there. Something to monitor.

Weak New Zealand Gale
A gale developed southeast of the New Zealand Thurs PM (4/18) producing west winds at 40-45 kts with seas building from 25 ft at 54S 173W aimed east. On Fri AM (4/19) west winds built to 50 kts over a small area aimed east with seas 37 ft at 60.25S 161W aimed east. In the evening fetch was racing east with west winds 45 kts and seas 33 ft at 62.5S 145.75W aimed east. The gale quickly dissipated from there. Perhaps small swell to be radiating north. Something to monitor.

Southern CA: Swell fading on Sun (4/28) from 1.3 ft @ 15 secs (2.0 ft). Residuals on Mon (4/29) fading from 1.3 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 200 degrees

North CA: Swell fading on Sun (4/28) from 1.4 ft @ 15 secs (2.0 ft). Residuals on Mon (4/29) fading from 1.3 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 198 degrees

Central South Pacific Gale
A gale was starting to develop in the Central South Pacific on Sun AM (4/28) with 50 kt south winds and seas building from 27 ft at 57.25S 175.25W aimed northeast. In the evening the gale is to be producing 55 kt southwest winds with seas building to 35 ft at 54.5S 162.25W aimed northeast. On Mon AM (4/29) the gale is to have southwest winds at 45-50 kts and seas 38 ft at 50.25S 153.5W aimed northeast. In the evening fetch is to be fading in coverage at 45 kts while lifting northeast with seas 38 ft at 47.5S 148.25W aimed northeast. Fetch fading Tues AM (4/30) from 30-35 kts from the south with seas 30 ft at 42.5S 143.75W aimed well northeast. Fetch fading over the Southeast Pacific in the evening from 30 kts with seas 25 ft at 40S 140W aimed north. Something to monitor.

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast. Winter is over.

Beyond 72 hours yet another stronger gale is forecast developing south of Tasmania Thurs PM (5/2) lifting steadily east-northeast and south of New Zealand Fri AM (5/3) with 50 kt southwest winds and seas 40 ft at 57.25S 161E aimed east-northeast. In the evening fetch is to be fading from 45 kts with seas 38 ft at 53.25S 169.25E aimed east-northeast. Fetch fading Sat AM (5/4) from 35 kts with seas 29 ft at 50S 177E aimed northeast. Something to monitor.

La Nina Building
NINO3.4 SST Anomalies Fading with Cool Water Starting to Erupt
9 Kelvin Waves traversed the Pacific from Dec '22 through Dec 2023 erupting off Ecuador setting up El Nino for the Winter of 23-24. But now cold water has traversed the subsurface equatorial Pacific and is starting to erupt off the coast of Ecuador with the remaining warm pool created by El Nino starting to dissipate in the East Equatorial Pacific. Regardless, the atmosphere is still in El Nino mode and will continue from previous momentum while slowly fading through Fall of 2024.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023.

Rationale: A 3 year La Nina started fading in Jan 2023 and was gone by April. 6 Active MJO's produced 6 Kelvin Waves over early to mid 2023 with Kelvin Wave #7 in August building over the West Pacific and the 4th, 5th and 6th backed up off Ecuador now (10/20/23). The CFS model is predicting steady west anomalies from here forward and the leading edge of the low pressure bias moving over California now filling the Pacific. We are now under an El Nino status. We are moving into a period of enhanced storm production (starting late Sept 2023) and beyond, getting intense come late Fall and early Winter. This should result in an above normal level of swells, with swells being longer than normal duration from here forward as El Nino gets a stronger footprint on the atmosphere. The net result is a well above normal number of swells with above normal size and duration (i.e 15 significant class swells perhaps). Last year there were 0 and year before 5 or less.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (4/27) 5 day average winds were from the east at moderate plus strength over the East equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were light east over the East equatorial Pacific and neutral over the Central Pacific and light east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (4/28) Today moderate plus strength east anomalies were filling the KWGA today. The forecast indicates moderate plus strength east anomalies are to hold while moving east through the KWGA through 5/1. After that starting 5/2 west anomalies are to move into the far West KWGA building east at near strong status 5/4 and getting even stronger while building in coverage filling the West KWGA through the end of the model run on 5/14.

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (4/14) Stale data - A neutral MJO was over the KWGA today. The statistic model indicates a neutral MJO pattern holding on days 5-15 of the model run. The dynamic model depicts the same thing.
Phase Diagrams - 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (4/15) Stale data - The statistical model depicts the Active signal was very weak over the Central Maritime Continent today. The forecast indicates it is to move to the West Pacific over the next 15 days at very weak status. The dynamic model indicates the same thing.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (4/28) A weak Inactive MJO pattern (dry air) was fading over the KWGA today. The Active MJO (wet air) is to track east and starting to fill the KWGA 5/3 holding through 5/18 while moving east. After that a weak Inactive MJO (dry air) is to start filtering into the KWGA 5/28 through the end of the model run on 6/7.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (4/27) Today a weak Inactive MJO signal was indicated filling the KWGA with east anomalies in control at near strong status. The Inactive Phase is to fade on 5/1 with east anomalies holding over the KWGA at strong status through 5/7 while moderate west anomalies start building in the west KWGA 5/2 with a weak Active Phase developing and transiting east through the KWGA through 5/16 with modest west anomalies holding. After that a neutral MJO pattern is indicated starting 5/14 with weak to modest east anomalies in control of the KWGA through the end of the model run on 5/25.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (4/28) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
The model depicts a weak Active Phase moving over the West KWGA today but with weak east anomalies in control. The weak Active Phase is to continue pushing east filling the KWGA through 5/27 with weak west anomalies 5/2-5/25. After that a weak Inactive Phase is to set up controlling the KWGA 5/18-6/13 but with very weak west anomalies in control. After that a weak Active MJO is forecast 6/7 through 7/18 with very weak west anomalies in control but retrograding west with east anomalies filling everything east of the dateline through the end of the model run on 7/26. The low pass filter indicates a broad low pressure bias is fading over the KWGA centered at 165W with the second contour gone. The final contour is to fade out on 5/19 with El Nino gone then. The low pressure bias has retrograded back to the Indian Ocean starting today (4/28) and is to be building there through the end of the model run with 2 contours indicated and a high pressure bias starting to show on the Dateline 5/2 building east to California 6/28 and beyond. La Nina is building.

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (4/28) Today in the far West Pacific the 30 degree isotherm reappears reaching east to 164E with the 29 degree isotherm holding at 167W. The 28 deg isotherm line was gone east of 149W. The 24 degree isotherm extended the whole way across the Pacific and was shallow but stable in the east at 25m deep. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies were up to +2 degs in one small pocket with +1 anomalies west of there in pockets mostly getting compressed to the surface. Neutral to +1 deg anomalies were deeper from the dateline west. El Nino is gone subsurface. A large pool of cold anomalies at -4 degs were down at 120m deep between 110W-175W reaching east and weaker to a point along Ecuador basically filling the entire Equatorial Pacific. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 4/23 indicates cold water was in control from Ecuador west to 130W at the surface and at depth west to 160E. The last remnant warm surface water from El Nino was getting pushed west by trades starting at 140W and points west of there. Cold water was filling the entire equatorial Pacific thermocline below it. La Nina is developing. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (4/23) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were negative at -5 to -10 cms east of 160W with a broad pocket developing at -15 cms between 110-117W. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (4/23) cold water was filling the Equatorial Pacific at -0.5 to -2.0 degs from Ecuador to 160W. El Nino is gone from the subsurface perspective and now clearly turning to La Nina.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (4/27) The latest images depict a moderate warm pool from Ecuador uniformly covering the area on the equator west to the dateline and beyond except with a developing cool stream running west directly on the equator from Peru and Ecuador reaching west to 140W. There is still a solid El Nino signal present at the surface with the exception of a cold La Nina signal starting to emerge on the equator.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (4/27): Water temps were crashing hard on the equator from the Galapagos to 140W. A neutral pattern was present everywhere else near the equator.
Hi-res Overview: (4/27) Warmer than normal waters are filling the Equatorial Pacific from just west of the Galapagos to the dateline with a cool stream poking through it while extending west from the coast of Ecuador to 140W. The classic El Nino tongue of warm water is still present but being weakened by a building La Nina stream.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (4/28) (The official OISST temp record runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were rebuilding at -0.005 degrees after falling to -0.843 (4/21) and -0.565 on 4/1 and have been below 0 since 3/19.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (4/28) (OISST runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were falling at +0.443 after rising to +0.831 degs on 4/21 after falling to +0.5 degs on 4/15 and then falling from +1.120 (4/3) degrees. Previously temps have been in the +1.2 deg range since 3/11. Temps were at +1.2 degs or higher since 1/13. Temps had been in the +1.5 range 11/19-1/12. Weekly OISST are steadily falling at +0.7 (week of 4/17), +0.9 (4/10), +1.2 (week of 4/3), +1.0 (3/27), +1.3 (3/20), +1.1 degs (3/13), +1.4 (3/6), +1.3 (2/28), +1.5 (2/14 & 2/21) +1.7 (2/7), +1.8 (1/31). +1.7 (1/24 & 1/17) up at +1.9 (1/10 & 1/3), +2.0 (12/27, 12/20 and 12/13) after being at +1.9 (12/6), +2.0 (11/29) and +2.1 (11/22 - the highest), then +1.9 (11/15) and +1.8 degs (11/8 & 11/1). Monthly Data is +1.72 Oct, +2.02 Nov, +2.02 Dec and +1.82 Jan and +1.52 Feb, +1.15 March. The 3 Month ONI (centered) 3 month period is +1.50 JFM, 1.79 for DJF and +1.95 ft for NDJ (just short of minimal Super El Nino status) and +1.92 OND . All others were less than that.

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose to +0.50 degs mid-May, +0.9 degs in mid-June, and +1.05 mid July reaching up to +1.30 degs early Aug, +1.6 degs in Sept holding in Oct and , +1.95 in Nov, +2.0 in Dec and +1.85 in Jan and +1.65 in Feb then down to +1.0 degs mid-April.
Forecast (4/28) - Temps to fall to 0.0 late-May and -1.75 degs in Nov/Dec 2024. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same thing but with temps falling to only -1.5 degs. According to this version of the model we are past the peak of a strong El Nino.
IRI Consensus Plume: The April 19, 2024 Plume (all models) depicts temps are +0.407 degs today and its the 12th month above the La Nina threshold. Temps to fall steadily from here forward down to +0.036 in May (that's a 3 months running mean) then fading from there down to -0.927 in Oct and holding there. The Dynamic model suggest temps falling to -1.075 in Sept and the Statistic down to -0.927 in Oct.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (4/28) the Daily Index was rising some at -5.12 today. The daily SOI turned mostly positive on 2/20 after a 28 day negative peaking down at -46.54 on 2/9. It was positive and up to +31.61 on 1/6 and had been rising the previous 10 days. It had been effectively neutral 11/20/23 through 1/10/24. This was not consistent with El Nino. Previously it was negative for 29 days (7/14-8/11) with a peak down to -37.30 on 7/25 and negative previously to 7/12 with peaks down to -29.32 on 5/31, -64.63 on 5/24 and -31.31 on 5/12.
The 30 day average was holding some at -7.02, Recent max lows were -19.26 on 2/20, -10.43 on 11/16 and -15.70 on 9/23.
The 90 day average was steady at -7.65. Recent max lows were -11.14 on 11/17, -11.85 on 10/15.
El Nino is collapsing

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan '98-Feb 2014) turning weakly positive March 2014 holding into June 2017 (up to +1.86 driven by the 2015-16 El Nino) then turned neutral. It went negative again 10/19 and hard negative in 10/21-10/23 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/23-2/24 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24, then falling to -1.57 in March). Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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