Pacific Storm & Surf Forecast (Stormsurf)

Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt)/Buoy 239 (Lani): Seas were 4.3 ft @ 14.3 secs with swell 3.2 ft @ 13.8 secs from 181 degrees. Water temp 77.2 degs (Barbers Pt), 77.0 (Pearl Harbor 233), 77.7 (Lani 239).
Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 4.1 ft @ 6.7 secs with swell 3.1 ft @ 6.3 secs from 41 degrees. Water temp 76.8 degs
Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 2.8 ft @ 15.9 secs with swell 1.7 ft @ 15.3 secs from 177 degrees. Wind west at 4-6 kts. Water temperature 60.3 degs, 60.4 (Topanga 103), 59.0 degs (Long Beach 215), 62.4 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 61.3 (Del Mar 153), 61.9 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 2.3 ft @ 15.7 secs from 207 degrees. At E. Santa Barbara (46053) swell was 1.9 ft @ 10.5 secs from 261 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.7 ft @ 15.9 secs from 206 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.9 ft @ 15.5 secs from 217 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 1.7 ft @ 15.8 secs from 204 degrees. Water temperature was 61.3 degrees.
Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay) Out of Service /029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 4.8 ft @ 11.1 secs with swell 2.2 ft @ 15.7 secs from 201 degrees. Wind south at 4 kts (46026). Water temp 52.5 (Bodega Bay 46013), 52.5 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 53.1 (San Francisco 46026), 54.7 (SF Bar 142), 55.6 (Pt Santa Cruz 254) and 54.3 (Monterey Bay 46042).

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Sunday (5/7) North and Central CA had sets at waist to maybe chest high and somewhat lined up and clean but soft. Protected breaks were waist high on the sets and soft and mushed but real clean. At Santa Cruz surf was chest high and lined up and clean with decent form and fun. In Southern California/Ventura waves were up to chest high and lined up but a little closed out and clean with a little texture on top. Central Orange County had sets at chest high on the peak and lined up with decent form but soft and lightly textured with light west wind. South Orange County's best summertime breaks were chest to shoulder high on the sets and lined up and clean with good form. North San Diego had sets at chest high and lined up and clean with decent form. Hawaii's North Shore was flat and clean. The South Shore had sets at chest high and lined up and clean with decent form but a little soft. The East Shore was waist to chest high and chopped from moderate east trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Sunday (5/7) California and Hawaii were getting swell from a gale that developed east of New Zealand pushing northeast Thurs-Sat (4/29) producing up to 37 ft seas aimed well north. Another gale developed in the Southeast Pacific Tues-Thurs (5/4) with up to 29 ft seas aimed north. Swell is radiation north. And another is to follow directly in it's wake Sun- Mon (5/8) with up 36 ft seas aimed northeast. After that things to take a break. Up north a gale is to push east towards the North Dateline region Tues-Wed (5/10) generating up to 26 ft seas then fading but being reinforced while falling into the Gulf of Alaska Thurs-Sat (5/13) producing 18-19 ft seas aimed southeast. So maybe some windswell to result for Hawaii and CA.

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Sunday (5/7) no swell of interest was in the water or tracking towards HI or CA.

Over the next 72 hours a gale is to start developing just east of Kamchatka on Tues AM (5/9) producing 40 kts west winds and seas building from 24 ft at 48.25N 163.25E aimed east. In the evening fetch is to fade from 35 kts approaching the dateline with seas 25 ft at 48.5N 170.5E aimed east. On Wed AM (5/10) fetch is to fade from 30 kts over the dateline and falling southeast fast towards the Gulf of Alaska with seas 21 ft at 47N 177.75E aimed southeast. In the evening fetch is to redevelop in the Central Gulf at 30 kts from the northwest with seas 17 ft at 42N 163.25W aimed southeast. On Thurs AM (5/11) northwest winds to be 25-30 kts over a broad area in the Gulf with 16-17 ft seas at 39N 156.5W aimed southeast. In the evening northwest winds to build to 30 kts with seas 17 ft at 41N 159.75W aimed southeast. On Fri AM (5/12) northwest winds to be 30 kts stationary in the Gulf with seas 19 ft at 41.5N 154.75W aimed southeast. More of the same in the evening with seas 19 ft at 43.5N 152.5W aimed southeast. Fetch is to be fading Sat AM (5/13) from 30 kts with seas fading from 19 ft over a small area at 39.5N 151,75W aimed southeast. The gael is to fade out from there. Something to monitor. Maybe some north angled swell for Hawaii and northwest swell for CA.

Tropical Update
No tropical systems of interest are being monitored at this time.

Mon AM (5/8) southwest winds to be 10-15 kts for North and northwest 10 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon southwest winds are forecast at 5-10 kts for North CA and northwest 10 kts for Central CA. Rain for North CA early continuing through the day. Maybe some snow showers for Tahoe in the afternoon.
Tues AM (5/9) northwest winds are forecast at 5 kts for North Ca early and 10-15 kts for Central CA south of Monterey Bay. In the afternoon northwest winds are forecast at 10 kts for North CA and 15 kts south of Monterey Bay. Spotty afternoon and evening showers possible across the state.
Wed AM (5/10) northwest winds to be 5-10 kts for North CA early and 10-15 kts south of Monterey Bay. In the afternoon no change is forecast. Spotty afternoon and evening showers possible for North CA.
Thurs AM (5/11) northwest winds to be 5-10 kts for North CA early and 15 kts south of Monterey Bay. In the afternoon northwest winds are forecast at 15 kts for North and Central CA. No precip forecast.
Fri AM (5/12) northwest winds to be 15 kts for North CA early and 15-20 kts south of Monterey Bay. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 20 kts for North and Central CA.
Sat AM (5/13) northwest winds to be 15-20 kts for North and Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 15-20 kts for North CA and 15 kts for Central CA.
Sun AM (5/14) northwest winds to be 10-15 kts for North CA and 10 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 5 kts for North and Central CA.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at 2, 2, 2, and 2 inches with a little on 5/7 and a little more on 5/9 and again on 5/6 and 5/9. Amazing. .

Freezing level for Lake Tahoe is to be steady at 7,000 ft through 5/9 then starting to rise 5/10 steadily up to 12,500 by 5/12 and holding steady beyond.

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Overview
Jetstream
On Sunday (5/7) the jetstream was fairly consolidated over the Southwest Pacific tracking east down at 60S offering nothing but starting to lift northeast over the Central South Pacific trying to form a trough. Over the next 72 hours a trough is forecast developing over the Southeast Pacific on Tues (5/9) being fed by 150 kt winds lifting firmly north and up to 160 kts on Wed (5/10) offering good support for gale development right on the eastern edge of the California swell window before starting to pinch off and pushing east of it early Thurs (5/11). Beyond 72 hours starting Thurs (5/11) the jet is to be ridging south running east on the 65S latitude line at 150 kts across the whole of the South Pacific offering no support for gale development into Sat (5/13). Beyond on Sun (5/14) more of the same is expected but with winds weakening significantly at 90 kts and generally on the 60S latitude line not offering any support for trough formation but not actively suppressing it either.

Surface Analysis
A gale developed in the South Central Pacific with swell from it past its prime in California but still hitting both there and Hawaii (see South Central Pacific Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours another gale developed in the Southeast Pacific tracking well northeast with swell from it radiating north (see Southeast Pacific Gale below).

And starting Sun AM (4/7) another gale was developing over the deep South Central Pacific producing 45-50 kt southwest winds and seas building from 30 ft at 64.5S 157W aimed northeast. In the evening southwest winds are forecast lifting northeast over the Southeast Pacific with seas 36 ft at 60.25S 143.5W aimed northeast. On Mon AM (5/8) southwest winds to be fading from 35-40 kts with seas 35 ft at 56.25S 135.25W. In the evening fetch is to fading from 35-40 kts from the south with seas 30 ft at 53S 128W aimed northeast. Fetch and seas fading quickly after that. Something to monitor.

South Central Pacific Gale
A gale started developing east of New Zealand on Thurs AM (4/27) with 35-40+ kt south winds and seas 30 ft at 48S 166.25W aimed northeast. In the evening south winds built to 45 kts over a small area lifting fast north with seas 37 ft at 40.75S 162W aimed north. Fetch was fading Fri AM (4/28) from 35-40 kts from the south but stalling while building in coverage with 33 ft seas at 37S 156.5W aimed north. In the evening fetch rebuilt some at 35-45 kts from the south with seas 31 ft at 36.5S 150W aimed north. On Sat AM (4/29) south winds consolidated at 40 kts with seas 30 ft at 39.5S 147W aimed northeast. Fetch was fading in the evening from 35+ kts with seas fading from 26 ft at 47S 150W aimed northeast. This system is to fade from there. Swell is radiating northeast.

Oahu: Swell fading Mon (5/8) from 1.2 ft @ 13 secs (1.5 ft). Swell Direction: 188 degrees

Southern CA: Swell fading some on Mon (5/8) from 1.9 ft @ 14 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fading Tues (5/9) from 1.4 ft @ 13-14 secs (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 212 moving to 202 degrees and mostly shadowed by Tahiti

North CA: Swell fading some on Mon (5/8) from 2.0 ft @ 14 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fading Tues (5/9) from 1.7 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 208 moving to 198 degrees and shadowed by Tahiti

Southeast Pacific Gale
Another gale started developing in the deep South Central Pacific on Mon PM (5/1) producing 30 kt southwest winds and seas building. On Tues AM southwest winds were lifting northeast at 30-35 kts over a solid area with seas 23 ft at 55S 151W aimed northeast. In the evening south winds were lifting northeast at 35-40 kts with seas 25 ft at 50S 145W aimed northeast. On Wed AM (5/3) fetch was solidifying from the south at 35-40 kts with seas 27 ft at 49S 139W aimed northeast. South to southwest fetch was fading in coverage in the evening at 30-35 kts with seas 29 ft at 45.5S 137.75W aimed northeast. On Thurs AM (5/4) southwest winds were fading from 35 kts with seas 28 ft at 39.5S 131W aimed northeast. The gale faded from there. Something to monitor.

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Wed (5/10) building to 1.6 ft @ 18-19 secs later (3.0 ft). Swell building on Thurs (5/11) at 2.6 ft @ 16-17 secs (4.0 ft). and holding. On Fri AM (5/12) swell to be fading from 2.6 ft @ 15 secs early (4.0 ft). Swell fading on Sat AM (5/13) from 2.4 ft @ 14 secs (3.0-3.5 ft). Residuals on Sun (5/14) fading from 1.9 ft @ 13-14 secs early (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 191 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Wed (5/10) building to 1.5 ft @ 19 secs later (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell building on Thurs (5/11) at 2.9 ft @ 16-17 secs late (4.5 ft). and holding. On Fri AM (5/12) swell to be steady at 3.0 ft @ 15-16 secs early (4.5 ft). Swell fading on Sat AM (5/13) from 2.8 ft @ 14 secs (3.5-4.0 ft). Residuals on Sun (5/14) fading from 2.2 ft @ 13-14 secs early (3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 188 degrees

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

Major Global Weather Pattern Change Occurring - El Nino Developing
Kelvin Wave #3 Poised to Erupt - Active MJO #4 Developing - Equatorial Sea Surface Temps Rising Fast
1 Kelvin Wave traversed the Pacific in Dec '22 with a 2nd in Jan-Feb and a 3rd in Mar-April. And Westerly Winds are fully established filling the KWGA. And Sea Surface Temperatures continue warming. The last link in the chain is to see the SOI falling deep into negative territory. The outlook is optimistic.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That basically continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing.

Rationale: A 3 year La Nina started fading in Jan 2023 and was gone by April. 3 Active MJO's produced 3 Kelvin Waves with the 3rd in that series poised to start erupting off Ecuador now (May 2023). The CFS model is predicting steady west anomalies from here forward and the leading edge of the low pressure bias on the dateline and forecast to nearly fill the Pacific during June. We are in a state of transition from ENSO neutral to El Nino during the summer of 2023. As a result we will be moving from a period of reduced number of storm days and storm intensity during the early part of Summer towards a period of enhanced storm production starting Late July and beyond, getting fairly intense come Fall. This should result in a slightly below normal level of swells, with swells being below normal duration and period over early Summer. But by late July 2023, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start improving as El Nino starts getting a solid footprint on the atmosphere. The net result is we're currently thinking a near normal number of swells with normal size and duration is to result, but all focused sometime after late July 2023. The swell pattern will be normal to somewhat below normal before July and above normal after July 23. And By Sept, the El Nino footprint should be solid. Of course this is all highly speculative at this early and based mostly on the CFS model and it's projection of a building ENSO footprint getting solid by Sept.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (5/6) 5 day average winds were moderate from the east over the East equatorial Pacific and moderate east over the Central Pacific and weak east over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the East equatorial Pacific and light east over the Central Pacific and light west over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (5/7) A mix of weak west and east anomalies were over the KWGA. The 7 day forecast has mostly weak to modest east anomalies taking hold of the bulk of the KWGA then fading on 5/13 with west anomalies building to strong status filling the KWGA on 5/15 and holding through the end of the model run on 5/23.

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (5/6) The Active Phase of the MJO was building over the KWGA today. The statistical model indicates the Active MJO is to continue building over the the KWGA on days 5, 10 and 15 of the model run. The dynamic model indicates the same thing but with a little less strength on day 5 and 10.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (5/7) The statistical model depicts the Active signal was modest over the Maritime Continent and is to move to the West Pacific at strong status 2 weeks out. The dynamic model indicates the Active Phase is to move to the same location but only at modest strength on day 15.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (5/7) A modest Active (wet) pattern was filling the KWGA with the Inactive (dry air) moving over Ecuador today. The forecast has the Active Phase (wet air) pushing east over the KWGA through 5/17 then easing east over the Central and East Pacific 5/22 and out of the Pacific on 6/6. The Inactive Phase (dry air) is to start building over the KWGA starting 5/27 and in control 6/6 and holding through the end of the model run on 6/16 with perhaps some weak signs of the Active Phase building in the far West Pacific.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (5/6) Today a mix of mostly modest west anomalies were over the KWGA with a previous weak Inactive MJO signal gone. The forecast indicates an Active MJO signal moving east and filling the KWGA now through 5/20 with west anomalies building and filling the KWGA from now forward. Evan as the Active Signal fades on 5/20, west anomalies are to only solidify their grip on the KWGA filling it through the end of the model run on 6/3. This is an upgrade and a bit more optimistic in the short run compared to the GFS model.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (5/7) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today a weak Inactive Phase of the MJO was fading over the KWGA but with weak west anomalies filling the KWGA. The Inactive Phase of the MJO is to fade on 5/13 with weak west anomalies holding. The Active Phase of the MJO is to traverse the KWGA 5/8 through 5/29 with west anomalies holding steady. A weak Inactive Phase is to follow 5/20-6/24 but with west anomalies holding. Then next Active Phase of the MJO is to follow starting 6/28 holding through the end of the model run on 8/3 with west anomalies building to strong status filling the KWGA. A solid El Nino is developing. The shift to El Nino started on 2/15. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias with 1 contour line centered at 120W with its western perimeter at 150W today and well east of the KWGA and moving east fast. A broad low pressure bias is established over the West KWGA centered at 150E with 2 contour lines and it's leading edge on the dateline today (it started pushing east on 2/15). A hard push east is occurring and is to continue into June 9 with it's leading edge then stalling at 145W filling most of the Pacific with it's leading edge more slowly moving east to 130W at the end of the model run with it's center at 165E. This is all a big deal and is being repeated in some form consistently from one run of the model to the next since Oct 2022. It appears an El Nino is developing.

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (5/7) Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was steady at 180W (previously 170E). The 28 deg isotherm line was running the whole way across Pacific but shallow east of 145W. The 26 degree isotherm has pushed the whole way across the Pacific and getting deeper. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies at +2 deg C were in a river traversing the Pacific with a building pocket of 3-5 degs anomalies in the far East Pacific. Amazing. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 5/3 indicates a huge very warm stream of 3+ degs anomalies extending from the far West Pacific east to 100W (leading edge of Kelvin Wave #2) and then upwards from there over the far East Pacific with +4 degs anomalies from Kelvin Wave #1 erupting there into Ecuador. And another pocket of warming waters were in the far West Pacific at 125E at +3 degs. No cool anomalies were indicated. El Nino is developing. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (5/3) Sea heights were positive across the equatorial Pacific connected to the East Pacific at +5-10 cms over the entirety of it's width with a pocket of +10 cms in the west and a pocket of +10-15 cms in the east extending north into Central America and south to Chile. This means no cool water was at depth. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram warm water continues building in intensity and coverage at +1.00-1.50 degs over the width of the Pacific connected to a second pocket starting at 110W at at +1.5-2.0 degs reaching east to Ecuador.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (5/6) The latest images depict a strong warm signal along the coasts of Peru and Ecuador and a bit weaker compared to weeks past but with a building tongue extending west over the Galapagos continuing along the equator reaching to 140W (results of Kelvin Wave #1). Warm temps continued west from there on the equator across the dateline and beyond. This is a clear El Nino signal. And warmer than normal temps were present well off the coasts of Chile and Peru and building in intensity and weaker over the entirety of the deep South Pacific. The last remnants of La Nina are gone on the equator and a clear El Nino signal is building. But, remnants of La Nina are still evident along the California and Baja coast with cold temps and the normal La Nina enhanced Springtime upwelling pattern in control.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (5/6): A weakly cooling trend was along the coasts of Chile and Peru as Kelvin Wave #1 starts fading there. But a solid stream of warming temps were along the equator from the Galapagos west to 140W. The pattern of adding energy to the warm surface pool has moved from Ecuador to the equator west of there. A warming trend had been well entrenched over the East Pacific since Nov 1 with no cooling waters over the equatorial East Pacific since 12/15 except for the time frame from 4/23 to today.
Hi-res Overview: (5/6) Warming waters are filling the East Pacific off Chile, Peru and Ecuador with strong warming along the immediate cost of Peru and Ecuador. And an El Nino tongue of more intense warming is building considerably on the equator west to 140W and from there to the dateline and beyond. No cool waters were on the equator anymore. There no sign of La Nina on the oceans surface and everything is now looking like El Nino. The east equatorial Pacific is finally and steadily warming.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (5/7) (These temps are biased high by about 0.2 degs compared to official sources). Today's temps are steady at +2.360 having previously peaked at +2.891 (4/13). Previously temps reached +2.302 degrees on 4/6, +1.732 degs (3/22), up from +0.462 since 2/28. Temps had reached as high as +1.076 on 2/19 and were previously steady at +0.848 since 2/7. Previously they started steadily rising 11/13 when they were around -1.5 degs C.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (5/7) (These temps are biased high by about 0.2 degs). Temps were steady today at +0.299 after peaking at +0.318 on 4/30 besting the previous peak at +0.199 on 4/21. Temps have been steadily increasing hitting 0.0 on 4/12 and were then more or less steady the previous 4 weeks. Temps previously rose to -0.402 on 2/23. Temps rose above the La Nina threshold (-0.5 degs) on 2/22 and had been rising slowly since 2/12 when they were about -1.0 degs C. Then had been in the -1.0 deg range since at least Nov 2022.

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data
Previous - Temps rose in early Nov 2020 after bottoming out at -1.25 degs, up to -0.01 degs in mid-June 2021 then fading to -1.05 degs in mid-Nov then rebuilding to -0.7 in mid Feb 2022 then fading to -1.1 degs in May before starting an upward climb peaking in mid-June at -0.65 degs and mid July at -0.55 degs. A steady decline set in after that falling to -1.00 degs in Aug and Sept rising to -0.8 degs mid Oct then falling to -1.0 in Nov but then slowly rising to -0.75 degs in Jan 2023 and up to -0.5 degs above the La Nina threshold on 2/12.
Forecast (5/7) - Temps are slowly climbing above neutral (0.25 degs today) and are forecast rising to +1.55 degs in July and +2.55 degs in Nov and solidly into El Nino territory. The PDF Corrected forecast suggests temps are forecast rising to +1.30 degs in July and +2.00 degs in Nov. According to this version of the model we are building into ENSO neutral in Spring and into El Nino in Summer.
IRI Consensus Plume: The April 19, 2023 Plume depicts temps are +0.434 degs today and it's the second month above the La Nina threshold. Temps to rise steadily from here forward to +0.711 degs in May rising to +1.149 in July and up to +1.269 degrees in Oct then fading from there. This is an upgrade from previous runs. The CFS model is on the upper range of all models. This model suggests a transition to El Nino.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (5/7) the Daily Index was positive at +11.13 and has been near there the last 9 days, but negative the previous 15 days, positive the 6 days prior to that after being mostly negative 25 days before that. It fell to -19.40 on 4/2. -17.44 on 2/22, the beginning of a change from which no return seemed likely. It was up to +21.85 on 2/10 and +55.74 on 12/22 and were in the +20 range the previous 22 days.
The 30 day average was rising at +0.21 after falling to -4.13 on 4/4 (lagging indicator driven by the Active Phase of the MJO) after falling to -0.52 on 3/22 previously falling to +4.18 on 11/27 and peaking at +21.57 (10/16) after supposedly peaking at +19.66 on 9/28. It was down to +6.89 on 7/29. It peaked at +20.34 (5/12) the highest in a year and beating last years high of +19.51 (1/14).
The 90 day average was falling at +1.64 and has not been negative (yet) in a long time, after peaking at +14.63 on 2/20, +15.61 on 10/25 and +12.92 on 8/11 and that after peaking at +18.40 (7/2) beating it's previous peak of +16.86 (5/31), the highest in a year. It previously peaked at +9.80 (9/21) after falling to it's lowest point in a year at +1.06 (6/9). The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 (2/23/21 - clearly indicative of La Nina then). This index is a lagging indicator but suggests that the Active Phase occurring now is starting to drive the index down, hopefully with no upward trend in sight for at least a year.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative ever since, driven by recent La Nina conditions. In May-July 2021 it was the most negative its been in the -1.80 to -2.04 range since Sept 2012 (-2.99) and then fell to -3.16 in Oct 2021 (the lowest since July 1933) then settled at -2.72 in Nov and Dec 2021. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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