BUOY ROUNDUP
Monday, May 29, 2023 :

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Monday (5/29) North and Central CA had sets at thigh high and junky and mushed with local south warble intermixed. Protected breaks were thigh high or so and soft and reasonably clean with some south texture. At Santa Cruz surf was waist high and clean and weak. In Southern California/Ventura waves were waist to rarely chest high and reasonably lined up with decent form but with some warble from northwest winds intermixed. Central Orange County had sets at head high and lined up with good form but some south texture/warble intermixed but not bad. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets a shoulder to head high and lined up with good form but crumbled and moderately textured from onshore winds. North San Diego had sets at chest to near head high and lined up and a bit closed out and somewhat warbled from a steady onshore flow. Hawaii's North Shore was waist to chest high on the sets and clean and fun looking for the time of year. The South Shore was getting nice swell with sets at shoulder to head high and lined up and clean with good form. The East Shore was near flat with a few sets at thigh high and chopped from moderate east trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Monday (5/29) California was getting swell from a gale that developed Fri-Sun (5/21) in the Southeast Pacific and on the very eastern edge of the California swell window producing 33 ft seas aimed northeast but mostly shadowed. Hawaii was getting some swell from a gale that produced 27 ft seas in in the Tasman Sea Sun-Mon (5/22) aimed reasonably well northeast. A small gale developed again on the far eastern edge of the Southern CA swell window on Sun (5/28) producing 32 ft seas aimed swell north. Maybe some small swell to result. Another small gale was south of it on Sun-Mon (5/29) producing 27-30 ft seas aimed northeast and is to pulse again while holding stationary on the eastern edge of the CA swell window Tues-Wed (5/31) producing 27-28 ft seas aimed north. After that things go quiet.

See all the details below...

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Monday (5/29) no meaningful swell of interest was hitting Hawaii or California generated from the Northern Hemisphere.

Over the next 72 hours no other swell producing weather systems are forecast.

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

Tropical Update
No tropical systems of interest are being monitored at this time.

California Nearshore Forecast

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at 0, 0, 0, and 1 inch (on Tues 5/30).

Freezing level for Lake Tahoe is 10,500 ft today and is to hold through 6/1 building to 12,500 ft on 6/2 and holding steady beyond. Steady snow melt to continue at elevation.

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Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for Resort specific forecasts).

South Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Monday (5/29) the jetstream was heavily split over the Southwest Pacific with the southern branch running south of normal down on the 65S latitude line the whole way to the Southeast Pacific at 140-150 kts forming a ridge but then lifting northeast over the Southeast Pacific forming a trough on the leading edge of the ridge offering some support for gale development. Over the next 72 hours that trough is to hold while easing east offering continued support for gale development into Wed (5/31) before tracking east and out of the California swell window. Back to the west the jet is to be moving further south pushing into Antarctica Tues-Thurs (6/1) offering no support for gale development. Beyond 72 hours the ridge over the West and Central South Pacific is to rebuild Fri-Sat (6/3) while sweeping east with perhaps yet another ridge building behind it sweeping east Sun-Mon (6/5) offering no support for gale development. But a small trough is possible over the far Southeast Pacific Fri-Sat (6/3) perhaps offering some support for gale development there. The Southeast Pacific reigns supreme for now, courtesy of the La Nina hangover.

Surface Analysis
Swell from yet a fifth gale that previously developed in the Southeast Pacific was hitting California (see 5th Southeast Pacific Gale below). And maybe a tiny 6th swell is radiating north associated with a gale in the Southeast Pacific (see 6th Southeast Pacific Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours another gale started building and is to continue in the Southeast Pacific (see 7th Southeast Pacific Gale below).

5th Southeast Pacific Gale
A gale started developing in the deep Central Pacific just off the north edge of the Ross Ice Shelf on Fri AM (5/19) producing 55 kt west winds and seas 33 ft at 65.25S 164W aimed east. In the evening winds were 45 kts from the southwest with seas building from 34 ft at 63.75S 146.5W aimed east-northeast. On Sat AM (5/20) the gale moved over the Southeast Pacific producing 45 kt south winds and seas 32 ft at 61.75S 132W aimed northeast. In the evening south winds to build in coverage a 40-45 kts with seas 34 ft at 58.75S 121.75W aimed northeast. On Sun AM (5/21) fetch is to be 40 kts but moving east of the eastern edge of the Southern CA swell window with 33 ft seas at 54S 118W aimed northeast into the Southern CA swell window with up to 35 ft seas east of the swell window targeting mainly Peru and Chile now at 54S 115W. The gale is to lift northeast in the evening with south winds 35 kts and seas 32 ft at 53.5S 102.25W aimed northeast at South and Central America. Additional fetch with seas to 40 ft are to develop Tues (5/23) targeting only Central America, Peru and Chile. Something to monitor.

Southern CA: Swell builds Mon (5/29) to 2.5 ft @ 16-17 secs (4.0 ft) and holding. Swell fading some on Tues (5/30) from 2.3 ft @ 15 secs (3.5 ft). Swell fading Wed (5/31) from 2.1 ft @ 14-15 secs (3.0 ft). Dribbles on Thurs (6/1) fading from 1.6 ft @ 13-14 secs early (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 200 degrees moving to 182 degrees

North CA: Swell builds Mon (5/29) to 2.2 ft @ 17-18 secs (4.0 ft) and holding. Swell fading some on Tues (5/30) from 2.3 ft @ 15-16 secs (3.5 ft). Swell fading Wed (5/31) from 2.1 ft @ 14-15 secs (3.0 ft). Dribbles on Thurs (6/1) fading from 1.7 ft @ 13-14 secs early (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 195 degrees moving to 178 degrees

6th Southeast Pacific Gale
On Sat PM (5/27) a gale developed in the upper reaches of the far Southeast Pacific producing south winds at 45-50 kts over a small area aimed north with seas building from 30 ft over a tiny area at 36S 122W aimed northeast. On Sun AM (5/28) south winds were 45-50 kts over a small area aimed north with seas 32 ft at 35S 118W aimed north targeting Southern CA and Central and South America. By evening the gael was well east of the Southern Ca swell window targeting only Peru up into Central America with 35 ft seas at 36S 110.5W.

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Sat (6/3) building to 2.1 ft @ 16 secs mid-day (3.0 ft). Swell continues on Sun (6/4) at 2.4 ft @ 14 secs (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell fading Mon (6/5) from 2.4 ft @ 13-14 secs (3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 190 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Sun (6/4) at 2.2 ft @ 15 secs early (3.0-3.5 ft) and 2.4 ft @ 14-15 secs later (3.5 ft). Swell continues on Mon (6/5) at 2.4 ft @ 13014 secs (3.0 ft). Swell fading Mon (6/5) from 2.2 ft @ 13 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 187 degrees

7th Southeast Pacific Gale
On Sun PM (5/28) a gale started developing in the deep Southeast Pacific producing 35-40 kt south winds and seas 26 ft at 55S 136W aimed northeast. On Mon AM (5/29) south winds were fading from 40 kts over a small area aimed north with seas 29-30 ft at 55S 127W aimed north-northeast. In the evening south winds to continue at 40 kts while easing slowly east with 27 ft seas at 54.5S 123.75W aimed north. South winds to lift north on Tues AM (5/30) at 40 kts with seas 27 ft over a small area at 52.25S 122.75S aimed northeast. In the evening south-southwest winds to be 35+ kts with seas 27 ft at 49S 123W aimed north. On Wed AM (5/31) southwest winds to be 35-40 kts moving east of the Southern CA swell window with 28 ft seas at 43.25S 118W aimed north-northeast. Additional fetch and seas are forecast but all aimed northeast at Chile, Peru and Central America. Something to monitor.

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no meaningful swell producing weather systems are forecast.

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no meaningful swell producing weather systems are forecast.

MJO/ENSO Forecast

El Nino Development Building on the Oceans Surface
Kelvin Wave #3 Poised to Erupt - Active MJO #4 is Finishing - NINO3.4 In El Nino Territory and Rising While Expanding Fast
1 Kelvin Wave traversed the Pacific in Dec '22 with a 2nd in Jan-Feb and a 3rd in Mar-April. And Westerly Winds are fully established filling the KWGA. And Sea Surface Temperatures continue warming. The last link in the chain is to see the SOI falling deep into negative territory which it appears to be starting. The outlook is optimistic.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That basically continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing.

Rationale: A 3 year La Nina started fading in Jan 2023 and was gone by April. 3 Active MJO's produced 3 Kelvin Waves with the 3rd in that series poised to start erupting off Ecuador now (May 2023). The CFS model is predicting steady west anomalies from here forward and the leading edge of the low pressure bias on the dateline and forecast to nearly fill the Pacific during June. We are in a state of transition from ENSO neutral to El Nino during the summer of 2023. As a result we will be moving from a period of reduced number of storm days and storm intensity during the early part of Summer towards a period of enhanced storm production starting Late July and beyond, getting fairly intense come Fall. This should result in a slightly below normal level of swells, with swells being below normal duration and period over early Summer. But by late July 2023, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start improving as El Nino starts getting a solid footprint on the atmosphere. The net result is we're currently thinking a near normal number of swells with normal size and duration is to result, but all focused sometime after late July 2023. The swell pattern will be normal to somewhat below normal before July and above normal after July 23. And By Sept, the El Nino footprint should be solid. Of course this is all highly speculative at this early and based mostly on the CFS model and it's projection of a building ENSO footprint getting solid by Sept.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (5/28) 5 day average winds were moderate to strong from the east over the East equatorial Pacific and moderate east over the Central Pacific and modest west over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the East equatorial Pacific and moderate west over the Central Pacific and moderate west over the KWGA. Westerly anomalies have been moderate to strong the past 5 days in the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (5/29) Modest west anomalies were filling the KWGA with the core at 150E. West anomalies are to start fading through 6/5 and then weak east anomalies are forecast taking over the KWGA through the end of the model run on 6/13. It looks like the Active Phase of the MJO is fading after being strong and producing a westerly wind burst (WWB) 5/14-5/28.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (5/29) Today in the far West Pacific the leading edge of the 30 deg isotherm was now present at 165E with the 29 degree isotherm easing east to 172W (previously 176W). The 28 deg isotherm line was running east to 119W but previously into Ecuador. The 26 degree isotherm has pushed the whole way across the Pacific and getting deeper. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies at +2 deg C were in a river traversing the Pacific but with a break between 145-165W. A building pocket of 3 degree anomalies was building in the west and 3-5 degs anomalies were in the far East Pacific starting at 140W. Amazing. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 5/23 indicates a huge very warm stream of +2-3 degs anomalies extending from the far West Pacific and building while tracking east and then upwards from there over the far East Pacific with +4-5 degs anomalies from Kelvin Wave #1 erupting there into Ecuador. And another pocket of warming waters were in the far West Pacific at 125E at +3 degs. No cool anomalies were indicated. El Nino is developing. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (5/23) Sea heights were positive across the equatorial Pacific at +5 cms solid in the west to the dateline connected to the East Pacific at +5 cms with a pocket of +10 cms in the east extending north into Central America and south to Chile. This means no cool water was at depth. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram warm water continues building in intensity and coverage at +1.00-1.50 degs over the West Pacific with +0.5 degree anomalies from the dateline to 125W connected to a second hot pocket starting at 127W at at +1.0-1.5 degs reaching east to Ecuador.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (5/28) The latest images depict a strong warm signal along the coasts of Peru and Ecuador and extending up to Mexico reaching the tip of Baja and the core hot pool steady along Peru and Ecuador with a building tongue extending west over the Galapagos continuing along the equator reaching to 155W now (previously 145W - results of Kelvin Wave #1). Warm temps continued west from there on the equator across the dateline and beyond. This is a clear El Nino signal. And warmer than normal temps were present well off the coasts of Chile and Peru. The classic El Nino triangle was developing. The last remnants of La Nina are gone on the equator and a clear El Nino signal is building. But, remnants of La Nina are still evident along the California and Baja coast with cold temps and the normal La Nina enhanced Springtime upwelling pattern in control but somewhat weaker then weeks past. but that will likely be reinforced over the next week.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (5/28): Finally warming temps are developing from Ecuador in a thin line west to 100W and then weaker from 160W and points west of there. A neutral trend was along the coasts of Chile and Peru. The pattern of adding energy to the warm surface pool is possibly starting to redevelop along Ecuador. A warming trend had been well entrenched over the East Pacific since Nov 1 with no cooling waters over the equatorial East Pacific since 12/15 except for the time frame from 4/23 to today.
Hi-res Overview: (5/28) Warming waters are filling the East Pacific off Chile, Peru, Ecuador and north up to Mexico with strong warming in a few pockets along the immediate cost of Peru and Ecuador. And the classic El Nino tongue of more intense warming is building considerably over the equator west to 155W and from there to the dateline and beyond. No cool waters were on the equator anymore. There no sign of La Nina on the oceans surface and everything is now looking like El Nino. The east equatorial Pacific is finally and steadily warming.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (5/29) (These temps are biased high by about 0.2 degs compared to official sources). Today's temps are steady but down some at +1.982 but have been in the at +2.0 to +3.0 degs range since 4/1 having previously peaked at +2.891 (4/13). Previously temps reached +2.302 degrees on 4/6, +1.732 degs (3/22), up from +0.462 since 2/28. Temps had reached as high as +1.076 on 2/19 and were previously steady at +0.848 since 2/7. Previously they started steadily rising 11/13 when they were around -1.5 degs C.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (5/20) (These temps are biased high by about 0.2 degs). Today temps are finally rising to +0.530. Temps have been falling the past 10 days to +0.378 (5/26) after rising to +0.507 on 5/17. We are now one day into a trend of being above the El Nino threshold. Previous peaks of +0.318 on 4/30 besting the previous peak at +0.199 on 4/21. Temps have been steadily increasing hitting 0.0 on 4/12 and were then more or less steady the previous 4 weeks. Temps previously rose to -0.402 on 2/23. Temps rose above the La Nina threshold (-0.5 degs) on 2/22 and had been rising slowly since 2/12 when they were about -1.0 degs C. They had been in the -1.0 deg range since at least Nov 2022.

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose in early Nov 2020 after bottoming out at -1.25 degs, up to -0.01 degs in mid-June 2021 then fading to -1.05 degs in mid-Nov then rebuilding to -0.7 in mid Feb 2022 then fading to -1.1 degs in May before starting an upward climb peaking in mid-June at -0.65 degs and mid July at -0.55 degs. A steady decline set in after that falling to -1.00 degs in Aug and Sept rising to -0.8 degs mid Oct then falling to -1.0 in Nov but then slowly rising to -0.75 degs in Jan 2023 and up to -0.5 degs (above the La Nina threshold) on 2/12. Temps were +0.45 degs today.
Forecast (5/29) - Temps are slowly climbing above ENSO neutral at +0.5 degs and are forecast rising to +1.45 degs in July and +2.15 degs in Nov and solidly into El Nino territory. The PDF Corrected forecast suggests temps are forecast rising to +1.10 degs in July and +1.75 degs in Nov/Dec. According to this version of the model we are building into ENSO neutral in Spring and into El Nino in Summer.
IRI Consensus Plume: The May 19, 2023 Plume depicts temps are +0.761 degs today and it's the third month above the La Nina threshold. Temps to rise steadily from here forward to +1.153 in July and up to +1.269 degrees in Aug/Sept then fading from there. The dynamic model suggest temps peaking at +1.672 in Oct. The CFS model is on the upper range of all models. This model suggests were are transitioning to El Nino.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (5/29) the Daily Index was negative at -0.82 and has been negative the last 20 days with a peak down to -64.63 on 5/24 and -31.31 on 5/12. Previously readings were toggling between +10 and -10 for 13 days, but negative the 15 days previous to that, positive the 6 days prior to that after being mostly negative 25 days before that. It fell to -19.40 on 4/2. -17.44 on 2/22, the beginning of a change from which no return seemed likely. It was up to +21.85 on 2/10 and +55.74 on 12/22 and were in the +20 range the previous 22 days.
The 30 day average was falling at -13.85 after falling to -4.13 on 4/4 (lagging indicator driven by the Active Phase of the MJO) after falling to -0.52 on 3/22 previously falling to +4.18 on 11/27 and peaking at +21.57 (10/16) after supposedly peaking at +19.66 on 9/28. It was down to +6.89 on 7/29. It peaked at +20.34 (5/12) the highest in a year and beating last years high of +19.51 (1/14).
The 90 day average was falling at -5.77 and turned negative the first time in a very long time on 5/12. It previously peaked at +14.63 on 2/20, +15.61 on 10/25 and +12.92 on 8/11 and that after peaking at +18.40 (7/2) beating it's previous peak of +16.86 (5/31), the highest in a year. It previously peaked at +9.80 (9/21) after falling to it's lowest point in a year at +1.06 (6/9). The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 (2/23/21 - clearly indicative of La Nina then). This index is a lagging indicator but suggests that the Active Phase occurring now is starting to drive the index down, hopefully with no upward trend in sight for at least a year.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative ever since, driven by recent La Nina conditions. In May-July 2021 it was the most negative its been in the -1.80 to -2.04 range since Sept 2012 (-2.99) and then fell to -3.16 in Oct 2021 (the lowest since July 1933) then settled at -2.72 in Nov and Dec 2021. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table