BUOY ROUNDUP
Thursday, June 9, 2022 :

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Thursday (6/9) North and Central CA had set waves at up to waist high and warbled and sloppy from modest northwest wind. Protected breaks were waist high and soft and weak with warble intermixed though wind was light from the northwest. At Santa Cruz surf was thigh high or so on the peaks and weak but clean. In Southern California/Ventura waves were thigh high and warbled and sloppy from light northwest winds. Central Orange County had sets at waist to near chest high and lined up with decent form and lightly textured from south wind. South Orange County's best summertime breaks were waist high and lined up with good form and fairly clean but with some intermixed light lump and weak. North San Diego had sets at thigh to maybe waist high and lined up and mushed and weak but clean. Hawaii's North Shore was flat and clean. The South Shore had sets at thigh high and lined up and real clean with good form but very weak and slow. The East Shore was flat and warbled from modest east trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Thursday (6/9) neither Hawaii or California was getting any meaningful swell of interest. Tiny residual energy from a small gale that developed over the Central South Pacific Sun-Mon (5/30) with up to 30 ft seas aimed well northeast was fading in California. Looking forward a solid and long lasting gale pattern is forecast for the Tasman Sea Thurs-Mon (6/13) with perhaps small energy from it eventually reaching Hawaii but the main target is Fiji. And maybe some of it is to leach into the far Southwest Pacific on Wed (6/15) with 35 ft seas aimed east, but confidence is low. Otherwise no swell producing weather systems are forecast.

See all the details below...

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Thursday (6/9) no swell producing weather systems have occurred with no swell in the water or forecast immediately.

Over the next 72 hours no believable swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

Tropical Update
No tropical systems of interest are being monitored.

California Nearshore Forecast

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at 0, 0, 0, and 0 inches.

Freezing level for the Tahoe area 14,000+ ft today through 6/11 then falling to 10,500 ft on 6/12-6/13, then above 14,000 ft 6/14 and beyond. Maybe another dip to 9,000 ft on 6/17 before rising again.

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Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for Resort specific forecasts).

South Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Thursday (6/9) the influential southern branch of the jet was ridging south traversing the entire South Pacific down at 69S with winds up to 90 kts from a point just southeast of New Zealand starting at 170W continuing to the far Southeast Pacific with no troughs indicated offering no support for gale development. A broad trough was reaching north over the Tasman Sea being fed by 90-100 kts winds offering some potential there. Over the next 72 hours no change is forecast for the greater South Pacific with the ridge remaining in control. But winds to build feeding the trough over the Tasman Sea to 120 kts on Sat (6/11) offering better support for gale development and holding through the end of the period. Beyond 72 hours starting Sun (6/12) the Tasman Sea trough is to start easing east moving over New Zealand (6/12) offering less support for gale development wit its remnants pushing east and fully in the far Southwest Pacific on Tues (6/14) but weak with winds in its west quadrant only 100 kts offering limited support for gale development. The trough is to continue east into Thurs (6/16) but turning far more zonal (oriented west to east) with winds 85 kts reaching to 140W offering no real support for gale development. But at least it is to break the ridge up over the West and Central South Pacific.

Surface Analysis
Tiny swell from a small gale that formed over the Central South Pacific was fading in CA (see Central South Pacific Gale below). Otherwise no swell was in the water and no swell producing weather systems have occurred.

Over the next 72 hours a small gale is forecast over the far eastern edge of the Southern CA swell window Thurs PM (6/9) producing 40-45 kts south winds and seas 25 ft at 35S 115W aimed north. On Fri AM (6/10) fetch is to be fading from 40 kts from the south while tracking slowly east with seas 26 ft aimed north at 38S 110W. This system is to be gone after that. Small southeast swell is possible for exposed breaks in Southern CA.

Otherwise no swell producing fetch is forecast in the greater Pacific.

But a gale is developing in the Tasman Sea offering hope for Fiji and Hawaii longer term (see Tasman Sea Gale below).

Tasman Sea Gale
A gale started developing in the Tasman Sea on Wed PM (6/8) producing 30-35 kt south winds over a decent sized area producing 22 ft seas at 43.75S 149.25E aimed northeast. On Thurs AM (5/9) fetch is to build to 35-40 kts aimed northeast with seas 24 ft at 48S 143.75E aimed northeast. Additional southwest fetch is to develop in the evening at 30-35+ kts over a broad area filling the Tasman Sea with seas 26 ft at 42S 160E aimed northeast. On Fri AM (6/10) southwest winds continue at 30+ kts aimed northeast with additional fetch to the south at 45 kts aimed well north with seas 24 ft at 45S 157E aimed northeast. A stronger and broader fetch is forecast developing in the evening under Tasmania at 35-40 kts aimed due north with 23 ft seas from previous fetch at 43S 162E aimed northeast with a new area of seas at 25 ft at 48S 143E aimed northeast. On Sat AM (6/11) the new fetch is to take over filling the Tasman Sea over a 1,100 nmile long area at 35-45 kts from the south with 30 ft seas building at 42.25S 150.75E aimed north. In the evening fetch is to be lifting north at 35-40 kts filling the Tasman Sea with 29 ft seas at 41S 154E aimed northeast. On Sun AM (6/12) fetch is to be fading from 30-35 kts still filling the Tasman Sea and impacting West New Zealand with 26-27 ft seas fading at 37S 160E aimed northeast. Fetch holding at 35 kts in the evening with seas building to 30 ft at 40S 161E aimed northeast. On Mon AM (6/13) the original fetch is to be inland over New Zealand with a new pulse of 30 kt southwest winds in the Southern Tasman Sea producing 25 ft seas down at 56S 155E aimed northeast with seas from the original fetch fading from 24 ft at 42N 168E still in the Fiji swell window. More of the same in the evening with seas fading from 24 ft at 50.75S 158.25E aimed northeast. On Tues AM (6/14) all fetch and seas are to be gone. Possible large swell to result for Fiji with filtered energy from Hawaii.

Central South Pacific Gale
On Sat PM (5/28) a gale started building well southeast of New Zealand with 40-45 kts south winds over a small area with seas building from 23 ft at 56S 174W aimed northeast. On Sun AM (5/29) fetch built to 45 kts from the south over a small area aimed well north with seas 30 ft over a tiny area at 53.75S 163.75W. In the evening 35 kt south winds were pushing well north with seas 27 ft over a small area at 48.25S 158.5W aimed north. The gale collapsed Mon AM (5/30) with 35 kts south winds fading and seas 23 ft at 45S 154W aimed north. This system was gone after that. Something to monitor.

Southern CA: Swell fading on Thurs (6/9) 1.3 ft @ 14 secs (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell fading on Fri (6/10) from 1.2 ft @ 13 secs (1.5 ft). Swell Direction: 203 degrees

North CA: Swell fading on Thurs (6/9) 1.1 ft @ 14 secs (1.5 ft). Swell fading on Fri (6/10) from 1.4 ft @ 13 secs (1.5 ft). Swell Direction: 202 degrees

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours there's some suggestion the Tasman Sea gale (above) is to seep into the far Southwest Pacific on Tues PM (6/14) with 40 kt west-southwest winds and seas 25 ft at 45.75S 167.5W aimed east-northeast. West-southwest winds to continue into Wed AM (6/15) at 40-45 kts with seas 34 ft over a tiny area at 52.25S 172.75W aimed east-northeast. In the evening 40 kt west winds to push east with seas 32 ft over a tiny area at 50.75S 163.25W aimed east-northeast. The gale is to fade out from there. Something to monitor.

Otherwise no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

MJO/ENSO Forecast

CFS Model Stable
La Nina to fade by mid-June - SOI Peaked Late April - New Kelvin Wave Stalled
Summary - Cool subsurface water volume peaked under the equatorial Pacific on 10/15/21 and is now fading. The SOI is just past its peak, higher than last years peak. A delayed response. A much hoped for Active Phase of the MJO (and westerly anomalies) in April has resulted in a weak Kelvin Wave but it is stalled mid-way across the Pacific today. La Nina conditions are projected ending by the CFS in June but persisting per the IRI models until Nov. West anomalies are forecast filling half or more of the KWGA from here forward. The outlook is turning more optimistic with ENSO neutral trying to set up.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. A slow dissolving of La Nina started in March 2021 with 2 Kelvin Waves sweeping east and arriving over the Galapagos in June. Weak warming set up over the equator with no cool waters present. NOAA declared La Nina dead. But cold water returned in July 2021 and a second pulse of La Nina developed and is continuing today, though possibly weaker with its foundation appearing to be in decline.

Rationale: It was assumed that the moderate La Nina from the Winter of 2020/2021 was on the wane and that a return to neutral ENSO state would set up over the Pacific Basin through the summer of 2021. But La Nina made a strong return by the end of Sept much like what the CFS model suggested would happen. A full double dip La Nina pattern took hold as we moved into November with this second La Nina dip being nearly as strong as the previous one. But a quick fade is forecast as we move into late December with the CFS predicting a return to a neutral wind anomaly pattern at that time and the low pressure bias making headway in to the KWGA in early Jan. Still it will take some time for the atmosphere to fully respond, resulting in a less than normal swell production forecast especially for Fall into early Winter. But by later in Feb 2022 perhaps a return to a more normal pattern might take hold. But it will be too little too late. As a result a significantly reduced number of storm days and storm intensity is expected Oct-Feb 2022, resulting in a below normal level of swells, with swell being below normal duration and period. But by March 2022, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start improving as La Nina fades out. The status of the PDO is not known, though it appears to be returning to at least a neutral state, rather than the warm phase as previously projected thereby having no significant positive or negative effect on the long term outlook.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (6/8) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and moderate east over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the East equatorial Pacific and neutral over the Central Pacific and weak east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (6/9) Weak east anomalies were over the KWGA. The 7 day forecast calls for east anomalies starting to build over the KWGA on 6/11 to moderate strength and then strong starting 6/12 holding through the end of the model run on 6/16 focused at 135E (far West KWGA) but with east anomalies filling the entirety of the KWGA.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (6/9) Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was solidly present holding at 172E. The 28 deg isotherm line was easing east to 174W (previously 175E). The 26 degree isotherm is holding at 132W. The 24 deg isotherm was steady across the East Pacific. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies +3 deg C were in a pocket in the far West Pacific down 150m with it's leading edge easing east to 135W with a thin stream connecting it to the East Pacific. +2 degs anomalies were over a solid area off Ecuador supposedly. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 6/2 indicates the same broad area of warm anomalies in the west and a pocket of cool anomalies from 130W and points east of there with the core at 90W at -3.5 degs C slowly easing east while weakening and discharging to the surface. A possible Kelvin Wave is stalled filling the West Pacific reaching east to 140W. It appears warm water is building over the vast majority of the equatorial West Pacific but being repelled from surging east by a stubborn cool pocket over the far East equatorial Pacific. One could guess that La Nina is one Active Phase away from being inundated. Only the previously existing La Nina momentum in the atmosphere is holding it at bay. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (6/2) Sea heights were steady over the Equatorial Pacific. A nearly contiguous string of positive anomaly pockets were north of the equator pushing from the dateline to 110W along the 3N latitude line. A broad but shrinking area of negative anomalies at -5 cms were over the equator from Ecuador to 130W with -10 cms over the Galapagos and fading. Otherwise positive anomalies were mostly locked from 180W and points west of there. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram a pocket of cool anomalies was fading from -1.0 degs between Ecuador and 118W. And the Kelvin Wave was stalled at 150W. It looks like a standoff between warm water in the west generally growing in coverage and density and cool water trying to hold on over the far east Pacific, but slowly weakening in coverage. The proverbial dam will eventually break.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (6/8) The latest images depict a broad generic pool of cool water extending west from Chile, Peru and Ecuador to the dateline and filling well south of the equator. A few pockets of warm water were on the equator from Ecuador building to 150W. A pocket of previously stronger cold water was all but fully discharged along the coast of Peru reaching west to the Galapagos and losing density and coverage fast. A weak area of warm water was present north of the equator (1 deg N) across the entire North Pacific. Overall this indicates the late stages of La Nina.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (6/8): Warming temps were indicated from Ecuador to 120W and then weaker warming west of there to the dateline.
Hi-res Overview: (6/8) Persistent cool waters cover a large area from Ecuador to 160E on the equator and from South America down at 20S. Warmer than normal waters were aligned from 1N and above over the entire North Pacific. La Nina remains in control over the East Equatorial Pacific but the density and intensity of the cooling appears to be waning.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (6/9) Today's temps were falling some at -1.822 after previously being up to -1.506 (5/21) and that after hovering around -2.0 degs since 4/21. Prior to that temps were fading after peaking at +0.760 on 3/18. Temps had been moving upwards since 2/20, and beat a previous high of -0.650 degs on 1/9 and that after being down at -1.871 on 1/3 and -1.954 on 12/18, the lowest this year so far. Previously temps dropped on 11/24 at -1.700, the lowest in months after previously toggling steady at about -0.6 degs from mid Aug to Oct 6, then falling from there. Last year temps bottomed out at -2.138 on 8/13/20. The longterm trend has been steadily downward.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (6/9) Today's temps were -0.493 and the first reading above La Nina threshold values since Sept 2021. Temps have been rising steadily since 5/15. They were down to -0.929 (5/2) and that after rising to a peak at -0.704 on 3/27 and had been on a gentle rising trend since falling to -1.012 on 3/8. Previously temps were rising slightly to -0.505 on 2/2 and that after reaching a peak low of -1.096 on 1/3 beating the previous low of -1.080 on 11/2, the lowest in a year. Prior to that temps had been in a freefall starting from the -0.175 range in early Sept. Before that temps peaked up at 7/1 +0.332, the highest in a year. Temps previously had been steady near -0.222 since early March. Temps bottomed out at -1.654 on 11/3/2020.

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data
Previous - Temps rose in early Nov 2020 after bottoming out at -1.25 degs, up to -0.01 degs in mid-June 2021 then fading to -1.05 degs in mid-Nov then rebuilding to -0.7 in mid Feb 2022 then fading to -1.1 degs in May.
Forecast (6/9) - Temps are to steadily rise moving forward to about -0.40 degs in July falling to -0.65 in Oct, then rising above the La Nina threshold in Nov and up to +0.1 degs in Feb. This model suggests we are at going to slowly transition towards ENSO neutral in the coming Winter. The PDF Corrected forecast suggests temps rising to -0.5 degs in June and to -0.25 degs in July then slowly falling to -0.50 degs Oct-Nov, before rising from there forward to +0.05 degs in Feb. According to this version of the model we will be moving out of La Nina in June. This is beating the forecast from the IRI forecast (see IRI Consensus forecast below).
IRI Consensus Plume: The May 19, 2022 Plume depicts temps are -0.762 degs today and have bottomed out. They are to warm to -0.594 in July (previously -0.287 and -0.449 degs the 2 previous updates) then falling slightly to -0.708 in November before rising to -0.441 in Dec and -0.275 degs in Jan. This model now suggest a continuation of borderline minimal La Nina temps through Nov. then transitioning to ENSO neutral. This model is now in line with the CFS model.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - this is a lagging indicator):
Today (6/9) the daily index was positive at +8.79 with previous peaks at +33.57 (5/24), +40.77 (5/10), +31.44 (4/27), +31.80 (4/6), +27.33 (1/31) and +46.71 (12/26). The trend of late has been solidly positive. Previous other notable peaks were +30.98 (11/26), +36.90 (9/28), +27.75 ( 9/13) and +37.86 (7/15).
The 30 day average was falling some at +17.11 today after rising to +20.34 (5/12) the highest in a year and beating last years high of +19.51 (1/14).
The 90 day average was rising some at +16.50 today and is just barely below its peak of +16.86 (5/31), the highest in a year. It previously peaked at +9.80 (9/21) after falling to it's lowest point in a year at +1.06 (6/9). The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 (2/23/21 - clearly indicative of La Nina then). This index is a lagging indicator but suggest La Nina is returning.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative ever since, driven by recent La Nina conditions. In May-July 2021 it was the most negative its been in the -1.80 to -2.04 range since Sept 2012 (-2.99) and then fell to -3.16 in Oct 2021 (the lowest since July 1933) then settled at -2.72 in Nov and Dec 2021. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table