Pacific Storm & Surf Forecast (Stormsurf)

Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt)/Buoy 239 (Lani): Seas were 2.7 ft @ 16.7 secs with swell 1.2 ft @ 16.7 secs from 224 degrees. Water temp 79.5 degs (Barbers Pt), 78.3 (Pearl Harbor 233), 79.2 (Lani 239).
Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 2.2 ft @ 14.3 secs with swell 0.9 ft @ 13.6 secs from 309 degrees. Water temp 78.1 degs
Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 2.4 ft @ 14.7 secs with swell 1.8 ft @ 14.2 secs from 163 degrees. Wind southwest at 4-6 kts. Water temperature 63.0 degs, 62.2 (Topanga 103), 61.2 degs (Long Beach 215), 64.2 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 63.1 (Del Mar 153), 64.4 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 2.9 ft @ 14.3 secs from 195 degrees. At E. Santa Barbara (46053) swell was 0.6 ft @ 13.8 secs from 212 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.9 ft @ 14.8 secs from 196 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 2.6 ft @ 14.1 secs from 196 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 2.5 ft @ 14.9 secs from 200 degrees. Water temperature was 63.9 degrees.
Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay) Out of Service /029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 3.3 ft @ 15.4 secs with southern hemi swell 2.3 ft @ 14.6 secs from 190 degrees. Wind northwest at 6-8 kts (46026). Water temp 52.3 (Bodega Bay 46013), 54.3 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 54.9 (San Francisco 46026), 57.2 (SF Bar 142), 56.8 (Pt Santa Cruz 254) and 57.2 (Monterey Bay 46042).

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Friday (6/9) North and Central CA had sets at thigh high and lined up but soft and mostly clean with some light texture intermixed. Protected breaks were flat and clean. At Santa Cruz surf was waist to chest high and super clean and lined up but a little drained from tide. In Southern California/Ventura waves were waist to chest high and somewhat lined up and clean but inconsistent. Central Orange County had sets at chest to shoulder high and lined up from the south and clean but with some texture on it and a little crumbled with a light northwest flow early. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets at head high and lined up with decent form but a little crumbled. North San Diego had sets at chest to shoulder high and lined up and clean but a bit closed out. Hawaii's North Shore was thigh to maybe almost waist high and clean and soft. The South Shore had some chest high sets and lined up with decent form and clean but rare. The East Shore was knee high and chopped from modest east trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Friday (6/9) California was getting some swell from the the 7th in a series of gales in the far Southeast Pacific that developed on Sun-Mon (5/29) producing 27-30 ft seas aimed northeast and then pulsed again while holding stationary on the eastern edge of the CA swell window Tues-Wed (5/31) producing 26-27 ft seas aimed north. But this swell is fading. After that a gale is to possible develop again in the Southeast Pacific tracking northeast Sun-Mon (6/12) producing up to 34 ft seas aimed northeast. Nothing else to follow. And again the extratropical remnants of Typhoon Guchol are to recuve northeast Sat-Sun (6/11) off Taiwan but fade before making it to the dateline. But, the fact that now 2 systems (Mawar was the 1st) have recuved northeast in June no less, is impressive and suggests El Nino is already starting to have some influence over the far West Pacific. And it's barely June. This is a good sign.

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Friday (6/9) no meaningful swell of interest was hitting Hawaii or California generated from the Northern Hemisphere.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

Tropical Update
Typhoon Guchol was 750 nmiles east of the North Philippines with winds 85 kts tracking north. A slow turn to the northeast is forecast over the next 48 hours with winds fading to 60 kts while Guchol accelerates off to the northeast. Longer range models suggest Guchol is to fade out and nearly dissipate early Wed (6/14) off Japan offering no meaningful swell production potential. But on Fri (6/16) the GFS model suggests it's remnants are to rebuild on the dateline producing northwest winds at 45-50 kts and seas building to 28 ft in the afternoon at 35.75N 177E. That said, if the model is correct swell could arrive in Kauai late next weekend with luck. But the odds of any of this occurring are very low at this early date. regardless, the real story is that Guchol is the second in a series of West Pacific tropical systems that have recurved to the northeast. This suggests El Nino is gaining influence in the atmosphere in the West Pacific. And what's more interesting is that all this is occurring in June (very early). Normally one would not see this until August and that only in a very strong El Nino scenario.

Sat AM (6/10) northwest winds to be 15 kts for Cape Mendocino and 5-10 kts southward down over Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds to build to 20-25 kts over Cape Mendocino and 15 kts down to the Golden Gate. Northwest winds to be 10+ kts over Central CA. Windswell building some.
Sun AM (6/11) northwest winds and the usual summer time pressure gradient to start building with winds 25-30 kts for Cape Mendocino and 10-15 kts down to the Golden Gate with northwest winds 10 kts over Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 20-25 kts for Cape Mendocino and 10+ kts north of Pt Reyes with northwest winds 5-10 kts for Central CA. Windswell building some.
Mon AM (6/12) the gradient start fading with northwest winds 20-25 kts for Cape Mendocino and an eddy flow (south winds) south of Pt Reyes. In the afternoon northwest winds fade at 15 kts limited to just Cape Mendocino with the eddy flow in control south of Pt Reyes. Windswell fading some.
Tues AM (6/13) northwest winds rebuild at 20+ kts mainly just off the coast of Cape Mendocino with and eddy flow (south winds) from just south of Pt Arena southward. In the afternoon the gradient holds with northwest winds 20-25 kts along Cape Mendocino with an eddy flow along the rest of the CA coast. Windswell building slightly.
Wed AM (6/14) northwest winds hold at 20-25 kts for Cape Mendocino with a weak eddy flow nearshore early. No change in the afternoon. Windswell holding.
Thurs AM (6/15) northwest winds to hold at 20-25 kts for Cape Mendocino with a light eddy flow from the rest of California. In the afternoon northwest winds fade some over Cape Mendocino at 20 kts with the eddy flow holding south of there. Windswell fading.
Fri AM (6/16) northwest winds at to be 20 kts for Cape Mendocino and an eddy flow for the rest of the CA coast. Windswell production fading.

Freezing level is 10,5000 ft today and is to building to 12,000 ft on 6/13 with spike to 14k feet 6/15-6/18. Steady snow melt to continue at elevation.

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Overview
Jetstream
On Friday (6/9) the jetstream was split over the Southwest Pacific with the southern branch ridging south down into Antarctica under New Zealand offering no support for gale development. But a trough was trying to develop and pushing northeast over the Central South Pacific being fed by 150 kts winds offering some support for gale development. Over the next 72 hours that trough is to continue tracking northeast reaching the Southeast Pacific on Mon (6/12) with its apex up at 50S but getting weak likely loosing support for gale development while pushing east out of the California swell window. Beyond 72 hours the southern branch of the jet is to be very weak and almost not present offering no support for gale development while a wind energy starts becoming focused in the northern branch running due east on the 27S latitude line. This will do nothing for gale production, but looks to perhaps be related to the development of El Nino. Will monitor this situation.

Surface Analysis
Swell from what was a 7th gale in a series over the Southeast Pacific was past it's peak in California (see 7th Southeast Pacific Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours a gale is forecast developing over the Southeast Pacific (again) on Sun AM (6/11) producing a small fetch of south winds at 45+ kts with seas building from 26 ft at 54.4S 143W aimed northeast. In the evening winds to be 45-50 kts over a small area lifting northeast with seas 34 ft at 51.25S 131.75W aimed northeast. On Mon AM (6/12) fetch is to be tracking east with southwest wind 40 kts and seas 32 ft at 50.5S 124.5W aimed northeast. In the evening the gale is to start falling southeast with winds 40+ kts on the eastern edge of the CA swell window and seas 28 ft at 49S 118W aimed northeast. The gale is to push east and fade from there. Something to monitor.

7th Southeast Pacific Gale
On Sun PM (5/28) a gale started developing in the deep Southeast Pacific producing 35-40 kt south winds and seas 26 ft at 55S 136W aimed northeast. On Mon AM (5/29) south winds were fading from 40 kts over a small area aimed north with seas 27-28 ft at 55S 127W aimed north-northeast. In the evening south winds continued at 40 kts while easing slowly east with 27 ft seas at 54.5S 124W aimed north. South winds lifted north on Tues AM (5/30) at 35-40 kts with seas 27 ft over a small area at 52.25S 123S aimed northeast. In the evening south-southwest winds were 35+ kts with seas 27 ft at 49S 123W aimed north. On Wed AM (5/31) southwest winds were 35 kts moving east of the Southern CA swell window with 28 ft seas at 43.5S 115.5W aimed north-northeast and moving east of the SCal swell window. Additional fetch and seas are forecast but all aimed northeast at Chile, Peru and Central America. Something to monitor.

Southern CA: On Fri (6/9) swell is to be dropping from 2.4 ft @ 13-14 secs (3.0 ft). Dribbles on Sat (6/10) fading from 2.0 ft @ 12-13 secs early (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 187 degrees

North CA: On Fri (6/9) swell is to be dropping from 2.6 ft @ 14 secs (3.5 ft). Dribbles on Sat (6/10) fading from 2.2 ft @ 13 secs early (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 181-183 degrees

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

El Nino Building at the Oceans Surface and Trying to Couple with the Atmosphere
Kelvin Wave #4 Poised to Erupt - Kelvin Wave #5 Developing in the West - Active MJO #6 Done Likely Producing Another Kelvin Wave
NINO3.4 In El Nino Territory and Rising While Expanding Fast
1 Kelvin Wave traversed the Pacific in Dec '22 with a 2nd in Jan-Feb and a 3rd and 4th in March-April and a 5th developing now. And Westerly Winds are fully established filling the KWGA. Sea Surface Temperatures continue warming. The last link in the chain is to see the SOI falling deep into negative territory which it appears it is doing. The atmosphere is starting to become coupled with the ocean. The outlook is optimistic.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That basically continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing.

Rationale: A 3 year La Nina started fading in Jan 2023 and was gone by April. 3 Active MJO's produced 3 Kelvin Waves with the 3rd in that series poised to start erupting off Ecuador now (May 2023). The CFS model is predicting steady west anomalies from here forward and the leading edge of the low pressure bias on the dateline and forecast to nearly fill the Pacific during June. We are in a state of transition from ENSO neutral to El Nino during the summer of 2023. As a result we will be moving from a period of reduced number of storm days and storm intensity during the early part of Summer towards a period of enhanced storm production starting Late July and beyond, getting fairly intense come Fall. This should result in a slightly below normal level of swells, with swells being below normal duration and period over early Summer. But by late July 2023, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start improving as El Nino starts getting a solid footprint on the atmosphere. The net result is we're currently thinking a near normal number of swells with normal size and duration is to result, but all focused sometime after late July 2023. The swell pattern will be normal to somewhat below normal before July and above normal after July 23. And By Sept, the El Nino footprint should be solid. Of course this is all highly speculative at this early and based mostly on the CFS model and it's projection of a building ENSO footprint getting solid by Sept.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (6/8) 5 day average winds were moderate from the east over the East equatorial Pacific and moderate east over the Central Pacific and moderate east over the KWGA. Anomalies were light west over the East equatorial Pacific and moderate west over the Central Pacific and neutral over the KWGA. Westerly anomalies were moderate to strong May 10-5/30 in the KWGA likely producing another Kelvin Wave. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (6/9) Weak east anomalies were filling the KWGA. East anomalies are to build over the dateline 6/11 and holding through 6/17 at moderate strength then rebuilding again weakly 6/19-6/24, then fading out. It looks like the Inactive Phase of the MJO developing.

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (6/8) A weak Inactive MJO was over the West KWGA today. The statistical model indicates the Inactive MJO is to remain very weak days 5-15 of the model run. The dynamic model indicates the Inactive MJO fading to neutral if not weakly Active on day 10 of the model run holding but weaker on day 15.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (6/9) The statistical model depicts the Active signal was very weak over the Indian Ocean and is to track east to the Maritime Continent 15 days out and very weak. The dynamic model indicates the Active Phase is to noodle around in the Indian Ocean and very weak over the next 15 days.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (6/9) An Active (wet) pattern was building over the KWGA with the Inactive (dry air) signal strong over the East Pacific. The forecast has the strong Active Phase (wet air) pushing east over the KWGA through 6/24 and then over the East Pacific 6/29 through 7/9 and weakening then before moving into Ecuador. The Inactive Phase (dry air) is to start building weakly over the KWGA on 6/29 and tracking east and over the KWGA through 7/14 then filling the Pacific the last day of the model run on 7/19.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (6/8) Today a mix of weak west and east anomalies were over the KWGA with the Inactive Phase of the MJO building over the West KWGA. The forecast indicates the Inactive MJO signal and associated east anomalies are to start building and holding over the dateline 6/15 then moving east to the East Pacific. After that west anomalies are to start building over the West KWGA on 6/12 and holding at strong status into 6/22 then fading to modest status through the end of the model run on 7/6. This is a big contrast to the GFS model.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (6/2) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today the Active Phase and weak west anomalies were fading over the KWGA with the Inactive Phase starting to build in from the west.The Active Phase of the MJO is to be gone on 6/12 and the Inactive Phase building through 6/22 but with west anomalies rebuilding on 6/12 and strong 6/17. The Inactive Phase is to be gone on 6/22 with the Active Phase weakly returning and holding in some fashion through the end of the model run on 9/6. West anomalies are to hold steady at modest strength building to strong status 8/4 and beyond. A strong El Nino is potentially developing. The shift to El Nino started on 2/15. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias with 1 contour line centered at 115W with its western perimeter at 127W today and well east of the KWGA and moving east fast and of no real interest at this point. A broad low pressure bias is established over the West KWGA centered at 160E with 2 contour lines and it's leading edge east of the dateline at 150W today (it started pushing east on 2/15). A hard push east is occurring and is to continue into June 28 with it's leading edge then stalling at 135W filling most of the Pacific with a third contour lined developing on 6/25 with the primarily contours leading edge locked at 135W at the end of the model run with it's center at 170E. This is all a big deal and is being repeated in some form consistently from one run of the model to the next since Oct 2022. It appears a strong El Nino is developing.

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (6/9) Today in the far West Pacific the leading edge of the 30 deg isotherm was present and easing east to 173E with the 29 degree isotherm easing racing east at 155W (previously 176W). The 28 deg isotherm line was running east to 114W but previously into Ecuador. The 26 degree isotherm has pushed the whole way across the Pacific and getting deeper. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies at +2 deg C were in a river traversing the Pacific with no breaks, A building pocket of +3 degree anomalies was in the west (Kelvin Wave #5) and 3-5 degs anomalies were in the far East Pacific starting at 132W. Amazing. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 6/2 indicates a huge very warm stream of +2-3 degs anomalies extending from the far West Pacific and building while tracking east and then upwards from there over the far East Pacific with +4-5 degs anomalies from Kelvin Wave #3-4 erupting there into Ecuador. And another pocket of warming waters were in the West Pacific at 150E to 160W at +3 degs. No cool anomalies were indicated. El Nino is developing. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (6/2) Sea heights were positive across the equatorial Pacific at +5 cms solid in the west to the dateline connected to the East Pacific at +5 cms with a pocket of +10-15 cms in the east extending north into Central America and south to Chile. This means no cool water was at depth. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram warm water continues building in intensity and coverage at +1.00-1.50 degs over the West Pacific with +0.5 degree anomalies from the dateline to 125W connected to a second hot pocket starting at 127W at at +1.0-1.5 degs reaching east to Ecuador. There's been no change since mid March, a steady flow of warm water pushing east.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (6/8) The latest images depict a strong warm signal persisting along the coasts of Peru and Ecuador if not building with lesser heat extending up Mexico reaching the tip of Baja with a building tongue extending west over the Galapagos continuing along the equator now reaching west to 165W (previously 155W) and a warm core to 147W. Warm temps continued west from there on the equator across the dateline and beyond. This is a clear and building El Nino signal. And warmer than normal temps were present well off the coasts of Chile and Peru. The classic El Nino triangle was developing. The last remnants of La Nina are gone on the equator but remnants are still evident along the California and Baja coast with cold temps and the normal Springtime upwelling pattern in control there and likely be reinforced over the next week.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (6/8): There was weak warming from Ecuador in a thin line west to 120W and then broader from 120W to 170W. It's not surprising there's no clear warming signal along Ecuador because temps are already so warm they can't get much warmer. A neutral trend was along the coasts of Chile and Peru. The pattern of adding energy to the warm surface pool is stable. A warming trend had been well entrenched over the East Pacific since Nov 1 with no cooling waters over the equatorial East Pacific since 12/15 except for the time frame from 4/23 to today.
Hi-res Overview: (6/1) Warmer than normal waters are filling the East Pacific off Chile, Peru, Ecuador and north up to Mexico with strong warming in a few pockets along the immediate cost of Peru and Ecuador. And the classic El Nino tongue of more intense warming is building considerably over the equator west to 165W and from there to the dateline and beyond. No cool waters were on the equator anymore. There no sign of La Nina on the oceans surface and everything is now looking like El Nino. The east equatorial Pacific is steadily warming.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (6/9) (These temps are biased high by about 0.2 degs compared to official sources). Today's temps are rising to +2.624 but have been up in the at +2.0 to +3.0 degs range since 4/1 having previously peaked at +2.891 (4/13). Previously temps reached +2.302 degrees on 4/6, +1.732 degs (3/22), up from +0.462 since 2/28. Temps had reached as high as +1.076 on 2/19 and were previously steady at +0.848 since 2/7. Previously they started steadily rising 11/13 when they were around -1.5 degs C.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (6/9) (These temps are biased high by about 0.2 degs). Today temps are rising to +0.975. We are now 12 days into a trend of being above the El Nino threshold (for the 2nd time), Temps reached the El Nino threshold for the first time on 5/17 at +0.507 then quickly fell over the next 10 days down to +0.378 (5/26). Previous peaks of +0.318 on 4/30 besting the previous peak at +0.199 on 4/21. Temps have been steadily increasing hitting 0.0 on 4/12 and were then more or less steady the previous 4 weeks. Temps previously rose to -0.402 on 2/23. Temps rose above the La Nina threshold (-0.5 degs) on 2/22 and had been rising slowly since 2/12 when they were about -1.0 degs C. They had been in the -1.0 deg range since at least Nov 2022.

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose in early Nov 2020 after bottoming out at -1.25 degs, up to -0.01 degs in mid-June 2021 then fading to -1.05 degs in mid-Nov then rebuilding to -0.7 in mid Feb 2022 then fading to -1.1 degs in May before starting an upward climb peaking in mid-June at -0.65 degs and mid July at -0.55 degs. A steady decline set in after that falling to -1.00 degs in Aug and Sept rising to -0.8 degs mid Oct then falling to -1.0 in Nov but then slowly rising to -0.75 degs in Jan 2023 and up to -0.5 degs (above the La Nina threshold) on 2/12. Temps were +0.45 degs today.
Forecast (6/9) - Temps are climbing above ENSO neutral at +0.5 degs and are forecast rising to +1.25 degs in July and +2.00 degs in Nov and solidly into El Nino territory. The PDF Corrected forecast suggests temps are forecast rising to +0.95 degs in July and +1.60 degs in Nov/Dec. According to this version of the model we are building into El Nino through the Summer. But max temps are down from previous runs.
IRI Consensus Plume: The May 19, 2023 Plume depicts temps are +0.761 degs today and it's the third month above the La Nina threshold. Temps to rise steadily from here forward to +1.153 in July and up to +1.269 degrees in Aug/Sept then fading from there. The dynamic model suggest temps peaking at +1.672 in Oct. The CFS model is on the upper range of all models. This model suggests were are transitioning to El Nino.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (6/9) the Daily Index was positive at +1-.33 but had been negative the last 27 days with a peak down to -29.32 on 5/31, -64.63 on 5/24 and -31.31 on 5/12. Previously readings were toggling between +10 and -10 for 13 days, but negative the 15 days previous to that, positive the 6 days prior to that after being mostly negative 25 days before that. It fell to -19.40 on 4/2. -17.44 on 2/22, the beginning of a change from which no return seemed likely. It was up to +21.85 on 2/10 and +55.74 on 12/22 and were in the +20 range the previous 22 days.
The 30 day average was rising from -17.90 and the most negative in years. It previously had been falling to -4.13 on 4/4 (lagging indicator driven by the Active Phase of the MJO) after falling to -0.52 on 3/22 previously falling to +4.18 on 11/27 and peaking at +21.57 (10/16) after supposedly peaking at +19.66 on 9/28. It was down to +6.89 on 7/29. It peaked at +20.34 (5/12) the highest in a year and beating last years high of +19.51 (1/14).
The 90 day average was rising at -7.36 and turned negative the first time in years on 5/12. A recent max low was -7.57 on 6/6. It previously peaked at +14.63 on 2/20, +15.61 on 10/25 and +12.92 on 8/11 and that after peaking at +18.40 (7/2) beating it's previous peak of +16.86 (5/31), the highest in a year. It previously peaked at +9.80 (9/21) after falling to it's lowest point in a year at +1.06 (6/9). The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 (2/23/21 - clearly indicative of La Nina then). This index is a lagging indicator but suggests that the Active Phase occurring now is starting to drive the index down, hopefully with no upward trend in sight for at least a year.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative ever since, driven by recent La Nina conditions. In May-July 2021 it was the most negative its been in the -1.80 to -2.04 range since Sept 2012 (-2.99) and then fell to -3.16 in Oct 2021 (the lowest since July 1933) then settled at -2.72 in Nov and Dec 2021. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.