BUOY ROUNDUP
Monday, August 7, 2023 :

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Monday (8/7) North and Central CA waves were waist to chest high and fairly clean with no wind and lined up coming from the northwest but soft and a bit warbled. Protected breaks were thigh to maybe waist high and fairly lined up but mushed and soft with calm winds and minimal texture on it. At Santa Cruz surf was thigh to waist high on the bigger sets and lined up and clean and soft but very inconsistent. In Southern California/Ventura waves were thigh to near waist high and clean and lined up with some occasional decent sets. Central Orange County had sets at waist to occasionally chest high and lined up coming from the south and clean and no wind with decent form when they came. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets at chest to near head high and lined up but short in length and clean with good form and looking like a nice summer day. North San Diego had sets at waist high or so and somewhat lined up and clean but soft. Oahu's North Shore was flat and clean. The South Shore had sets at waist high and somewhat lined up with decent form and clean. The East Shore was getting east windswell at thigh to waist high and chopped from moderate easterly trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Monday (8/7) minimal residual swell was hitting California generated by a pair of gale previously in the Tasman Sea with seas to 36 ft. But this swell is fading. A tiny gale developed just east of New Zealand on Wed-Thurs (8/3) producing 26-28 ft seas aimed north. Tiny swell is radiating north and northeast. Beyond a small gael is forecast developing on the eastern edge of the CA swell window on Wed-Thurs (8/10) producing 25 ft seas over a small area aimed north. Something to monitor. And a gale is forecast developing in the Gulf of Alaska on Fri-Sat (8/12) producing 26 ft seas aimed east. That seems like a reach. We continue to wait for something to break up the log jam over the South Pacific but are beginning to wonder if maybe we'll just move right into an El Nino fueled Fall.

See all the details below...

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Monday (8/7) no swell of interest was in the water or being generated relative to Hawaii or California.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

Tropical Update
Hurricane Dora was located 600 nmiles southeast of Hilo Hawaii on Mon AM (8/7) with winds 115 kts (133 mph) tracking west at 20 kts. Dora is to be 450 nmiles due south of Hawaii on Tues AM (8/8) with winds 105 kts (120 mph) continuing on a west track. There continues to be swell production potential for the southeast coast of the Big Island. Beyond Dora is to continue on a due west track while slowly fading with winds 100 kts on Wed AM (8/9) and well southwest of the Hawaiian Islands and of no interest from a swell production standpoint. Latest models suggest Dora down to minimal hurricane strength on Sat (8/12) 1,700 nmiles west-southwest of Kauai continuing to steam west. It will be interesting to see if any northeast recurveture eventually occurs.

Hawaii (Southeast Shore): Expect swell arrival on Mon afternoon (8/7) building to 2.2 ft @ 14-15 secs later (3.0 ft). Swell peaking Tues later AM (8/8) at 8.0 ft @ 13 secs (9.0 ft) and holding through sunset. Swell fading quickly Wed Am (8/9) from 5.6 ft @ 9 secs (5.0 ft). Swell Direction: 105 degrees

Tropical Storm Eugene was located 480 nmiles south of San Diego on Mon AM (8/7) with winds 40 kts tracking west-northwest and weakening. Eugene is to be down to depression strength in 24 hours and turning north while continuing to fade and dissipated in 48 hours. No swell production is forecast.

California Nearshore Forecast

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at 0, 0, 0, and 0 inches.

Temperatures for the Pacific Crest Trail and Tioga Pass Road intersection (8,700 ft): 50-60 degrees but building to the 70's Tues (8/15) and beyond.

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Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for Resort specific forecasts).

South Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Monday (8/7) the jet was extremely split over the width of the South Pacific with the influential southern branch running due east down on the 65S latitude line and weak at 80 kts with no troughs indicated anywhere over the South Pacific. Over the next 72 hours no change is forecast. Beyond 72 hours Thurs (8/10) no change is forecast other than winds in the southern branch building to the 120-130 kts range but still displaced down at 68S and running due east with no troughs indicated. Something is horribly broken in the Southern Hemi. That said, a trough is forecast building in the northern branch on Thurs (8/10) being fed by 180 kts on the eastern edge of the CA swell window and building to 200 kts late Friday (8/11) perhaps offering some hope for a mid-latitude low pressure system development. Something to monitor.

Surface Analysis
On Monday (8/7) small leftover background swell originating from 2 gales previously in the Tasman Sea were fading in California (see 2nd Tasman Sea storm below).

Swell from a tiny gale previously just east of New Zealand is tracking north and northeast (see tiny New Zealand Gale below)

Over the next 72 hours another gale is forecast developing Wed AM (8/9) on the eastern edge of the California swell window producing 35 kts south winds and seas building. In the evening south winds are to be 40 kts over a decent sized area aimed north with 23 ft seas at 41S 128.5W aimed north. On Thurs AM (8/10) south winds to hold at 40 kts with seas 24 ft at 42S 125W aimed north. Fetch fading from 30-35 kts in the evening with seas of no interest. Something to monitor.

2nd Tasman Sea Storm
On Tues evening (7/25) a new fetch of 50 kt southwest winds developed in the South Tasman Sea producing 36 ft seas at 50.22S 150.5E aimed northeast targeting Fiji. On Wed AM (7/26) 50 kt southwest winds were near the southern tip of New Zealand producing 36 ft seas at 48.75S 162.75E targeting Fiji and New Zealand but not in the Pacific. In the evening the fetch was impacting and easing east of southern New Zealand at 35-40 kts with all seas impacting the southern tip of New Zealand at 28 ft. All seas and fetch were gone after that.

Southern CA: Swell fading Sun (8/7) from 1.0 ft @ 15 secs (1.5 ft). Swell fading below rideable levels after that. Swell Direction: 220 degrees

North CA: Swell fading Sun (8/7) from 1.2 ft @ 15 secs (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell fading below rideable levels after that. Swell Direction: 222 degrees

Tiny New Zealand Gale
On Mon AM (7/31) a small gale developed just south of Tasmania with 45-50 kt southwest winds and seas building from 37 ft at 45S 148.75E starting to Target Fiji. In the evening the gale was racing east across the Tasman Sea with 45 kt west winds and seas 44 ft at 46S 159.75E aimed northeast. On Tues AM (8/1) a gale was pushing over New Zealand with 35 kt southwest winds still in the Tasman Sea and 31 ft seas at 46.25S 166.25E still targeting Fiji. In the evening 35 kt southwest winds were pushing northeast off the east coast of New Zealand getting traction with seas building from 23 ft at 48S 175E aimed north. On Wed AM (8/2) south winds were 35-40 kts embedded in a broad area of 30 kt south winds just east of New Zealand with 26-28 ft seas over a tiny area at 45S 180W aimed north and just west of Chatham Island. In the evening south winds built to 40+ kts over a decent sized area east and clear of Chatham Island with seas 29 ft over a small area at 39.5S 177W aimed north and north and clear of Chatham Island. On Thurs AM (8/3) 30-35 kt south winds were pushing hard north with seas 24 ft over a small area at 38S 172W aimed north and clear of any land. In the evening fetch was fading from 40 kts over a tiny area with seas 26 ft at 40.25S 177W well east of the northeast tip of New Zealand and just north of Chatham Island. The gale dissipated from there. Maybe some small swell to result for Hawaii and even less for the mainland. Something to monitor.

Oahu: Expect swell arrival late on Mon (8/7) building to 1.0 ft @ 17-18 secs late (1.5 ft). Swell building some on Tues (8/8) to 1.4 ft @ 16 secs 92.0-2.5 ft) later in the day. Swell continues on Wed (8/9) building to 1.6 ft @ 15 secs later (2.5 ft). Swell holding Thurs (8/10) at 1.9 ft @ 14 secs later (2.5 ft). Swell fading on Fri (8/11) from 1.8 ft @ 13-14 secs early (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell gone after that. Swell Direction: 215 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Thurs (8/10) building to 0.9 ft @ 18 secs late (1.5 ft). Swell building slightly on Fri (8/11) to 1.3 ft @ 16-17 secs later (2.0 ft). Swell peaking on Sat (8/12) at 1.6 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell holding Sun (8/13) at 1.7 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.5 ft). Swell fading Mon (8/14) from 1.6 ft @ 13-14 secs early (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 222-220 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Thurs (8/10) building to 0.9 ft @ 18 secs late (1.5 ft). Swell building slightly on Fri (8/11) to 1.3 ft @ 16-17 secs later (2.0 ft). Swell peaking on Sat (8/12) at 1.7 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.5 ft). Swell holding Sun (8/13) at 2.0 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fading Mon (8/14) from 1.8 ft @ 13-14 secs early (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 222 moving to 220 degrees

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast. But perhaps a gale is to try and develop in the Northern Gulf of Alaska on Sat (8/12) with seas to 24 ft in the evening at 53N 148W aimed east. The jetstream is consolidated tracking east on the 48N latitude line falling to 45N by Sun (8/13). Interesting.

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

MJO/ENSO Forecast

El Nino Moving Forward Steadily Now
Kelvin Waves #3, #4 and #5 Erupting - NINO3.4 SSTs well in El Nino Territory and Slowly Rising
1 Kelvin Wave traversed the Pacific in Dec '22 with a 2nd in Jan-Feb and a 3rd and 4th in March-April and a 5th in May. But after the last Active MJO in mid-to-late May, the MJO stalled, until Possibly restarting in Aug. Sea Surface Temperatures in the east are very warm and holding, but not expanding. The atmosphere is showing only the weakest signs of being coupled with the ocean mainly in ORL and surface currents. Fortunately, another Active MJO is getting limited traction (8/1) and seems to be creating one last Kelvin Wave that will help push the atmosphere towards El Nino.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023.

Rationale: A 3 year La Nina started fading in Jan 2023 and was gone by April. 3 Active MJO's produced 3 Kelvin Waves with the 3rd in that series poised to start erupting off Ecuador now (May 2023). The CFS model is predicting steady west anomalies from here forward and the leading edge of the low pressure bias on the dateline and forecast to nearly fill the Pacific during June. We are in a state of transition from ENSO neutral to El Nino during the summer of 2023. As a result we will be moving from a period of reduced number of storm days and storm intensity during the early part of Summer towards a period of enhanced storm production starting Late July and beyond, getting fairly intense come Fall. This should result in a slightly below normal level of swells, with swells being below normal duration and period over early Summer. But by late July 2023, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start improving as El Nino starts getting a solid footprint on the atmosphere. The net result is we're currently thinking a near normal number of swells with normal size and duration is to result, but all focused sometime after late July 2023. The swell pattern will be normal to somewhat below normal before July and above normal after July 23. And By Sept, the El Nino footprint should be solid. Of course this is all highly speculative at this early and based mostly on the CFS model and it's projection of a building ENSO footprint getting solid by Sept.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (8/6) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the East equatorial Pacific and moderate east over the Central Pacific but calm over the KWGA with the dividing line at 175E. Anomalies were modest east over the far East equatorial Pacific but weak west over the Central Pacific and moderate west over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (8/7) Modest to moderate west anomalies were filling the KWGA. The forecast indicates west anomalies are to hold over the KWGA through about 8/9 then east anomalies are to start building at moderate strength near 155E on 8/11 and nearly filling the KWGA holding through 8/16 then quickly collapsing. Starting 8/17 weak west anomalies are forecast redeveloping filling the KWGA and holding through the end of the model run on 8/23. The GEFS depicts the same scenario. The ECMWF shows west anomalies holding in the West KWGA and building to the east filling the KWGA by 8/15. So perhaps a small burst of easterly anomalies are possible for a week.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (8/7) Today in the far West Pacific the leading edge of the 30 deg isotherm was steady at 178W (previously 175W). The 29 degree isotherm was steady at 159W (previously 160W). The 28 deg isotherm line was steady at 143W. The 24 degree isotherm extended the whole way across the Pacific but was a little shallower at 35m down (previously 65m) in the far East. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies at +2 deg C started at 153W (previously 156W) pushing east with +3-5 degs anomalies over the East Pacific starting at 137W (145W on 7/20). +6 degree anomalies were gone. The warm pool is discharging to the surface. But a steady base warm state at +1 to +2 degs were in the West Pacific, with a building pocket of +2 deg anomalies developing near 175W. There's about 2 months of warm water backed up off the Ecuadorian Coast today with a steady stream of warm water backfilling into it. Of some concern was a cool pocket at -2.0 degs developing down 150m centered at 150W in mid-July, but it's gone for the moment at -1.0 deg at 150W and has been there in some form since 7/9. We will monitor this. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 8/1 indicates a large very warm stream of +1-2 degs anomalies extending west to east over the whole subsurface Pacific and building while tracking east with 2 deg anomalies from 138W and point east of there and +4-5 degs anomalies from 122W and point east of there erupting into Ecuador. +2 degree anomalies were falling off the Maritime Continent reaching east to 150E degs (Kelvin Wave #6). In other words, this image suggests a steady flow of warm water flowing east from the Maritime Continent suggesting perhaps another Kelvin Wave is developing. No cool anomalies were indicated. El Nino is developing. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (8/1) Sea heights were positive across the whole equatorial Pacific at +0-5 cms and much broader then weeks past. A pocket of +5 cm anomalies were at 170E with +10 cm anomalies in the east from 115W east into Ecuador. Positive anomalies extending north into Central America up to the southern tip of Baja and south to Chile. This means no cool water was at depth. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram warm water continues at +1.00-2.00 degs over the East Pacific from 120W and east of there. A broad pocket of near neutral temps was in place west in the West and Central Pacific (140E-145W) but now appears to be warming again with a broad warm pocket appearing between 160E to 165W. The warm water flow had backed off some with nothing to force more warm water east (i.e. no Active MJOs occurring). But that pattern is changing for the better now. Otherwise there's been no change since mid March, a steady flow of warm water pushing east.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (8/6) The latest images depict a strong warm signal along the coasts of Peru and Ecuador and rebuilding some after fading some 3 weeks ago affected by east winds blowing solidly over this area. Lesser but still serious heat continued west to about 130W. Lesser heat extended west to the dateline and beyond. Heat also extends north up Mexico reaching Central Baja and south down into Patagonia. There is a very clear El Nino signal with the classic El Nino triangle in-place. The last remnants of La Nina are gone on the equator but remnants are still evident mainly from Pt Conception down to Central Baja and west to a point south of Hawaii. La Nina is collapsing atmospherically over the Pacific.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (8/6): A neutral pattern was in control of the equatorial Pacific but with a tiny stream of between Ecuador and the Galapagos. It's not surprising there's no clear warm signal along Ecuador because temps are already so warm they can't get any hotter. A neutral trend was along the coasts of Chile and Peru. Warming is building solidly along California indicative of the weakening of the upwelling pattern there. The pattern of adding energy to the warm surface pool is stable if not inching forwards. A warming trend had been well entrenched over the East Pacific since Nov 1 with no cooling waters over the equatorial East Pacific since 12/15 except for the time frame from 4/23 to today. And strong warming is developing off California. This possibly signals the demise of the cool upwelling 'La Nina hangover' pool.
Hi-res Overview: (8/6) Warmer than normal waters are filling the East Pacific off Chile, Peru, Ecuador and north up to Mexico with strong warming in many pockets along the immediate cost of Peru and Ecuador out to 110W. And the classic El Nino tongue of more intense warming is building considerably over the equator west to the dateline and beyond. Everything is now looking like El Nino. But the La NIna enhanced cool pool off California persists, though weaker. Very perplexing. It's a clear sign of the negative PDO and it is not budging.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (8/7) (Coral Reef temps run about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were rising at +3.074 degs after being up to +3.391 (on 7/20) and had been rising from +2.906 (starting 7/3) rising from +2.451 after peaking at +2.7926 on 6/13 and have been up in the +2.0 to +3.0 degs range since 4/1 having previously peaked at +2.891 (4/13). Previously temps reached +2.302 degrees on 4/6, +1.732 degs (3/22), up from +0.462 since 2/28. Temps had reached as high as +1.076 on 2/19 and were previously steady at +0.848 since 2/7. Previously they started steadily rising 11/13 when they were around -1.5 degs C.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (8/7) (Coral Reef anomalies run about +0.2 degrees higher). Today temps are rising at +1.035 (first time above 1.0 degs) after being up to 0.967 (8/1) up from +0.873 degs (7/25) after peaking at +0.985 (7/18). Previously temps were rising slightly at +0.882 (7/9) after being steady at +0.794 4-5 days and that after being steady at +0.895 (3 days near 6/25) after being in the +0.712 range the previous 9 days after previously rising to +0.975 on 6/9. We are now 31 days into a trend of being above the El Nino threshold (for the 2nd time). Temps reached the El Nino threshold for the first time on 5/17 at +0.507 then quickly fell over the next 10 days down to +0.378 (5/26). Previous peaks of +0.318 on 4/30 besting the previous peak at +0.199 on 4/21. Temps have been steadily increasing hitting 0.0 on 4/12 and were then more or less steady the previous 4 weeks. Temps previously rose to -0.402 on 2/23. Temps rose above the La Nina threshold (-0.5 degs) on 2/22 and had been rising slowly since 2/12 when they were about -1.0 degs C. They had been in the -1.0 deg range since at least Nov 2022.

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose in early Nov 2020 after bottoming out at -1.25 degs, up to -0.01 degs in mid-June 2021 then fading to -1.05 degs in mid-Nov then rebuilding to -0.7 in mid Feb 2022 then fading to -1.1 degs in May before starting an upward climb peaking in mid-June at -0.65 degs and mid July at -0.55 degs. A steady decline set in after that falling to -1.00 degs in Aug and Sept rising to -0.8 degs mid Oct then falling to -1.0 in Nov but then slowly rising to -0.75 degs in Jan 2023 and up to -0.5 degs (above the La Nina threshold) on 2/12. Temps rose to +0.50 degs mid-May and were at +0.9 degs in mid-June, reaching +1.15 degs early Aug.
Forecast (8/7) - Temps are are to slowly rise to +1.20 degs in mid-Aug and +1.60 degs mid Sept, then start rising quickly, to +2.05 degs in Oct and +2.2 degs in Nov and solidly in El Nino territory. The PDF Corrected forecast suggests temps are forecast holding at 1.05 degs into mid-Aug then steadily rising to +1.25 degs in Sept, +1.50 degs in Oct and +1.70 degs in Nov-Dec. According to this version of the model we are building into a strong El Nino through the Summer. But max temps are down from previous runs.
IRI Consensus Plume: The July 19, 2023 Plume (all models) depicts temps are +1.262 degs today and it's the 5th month above the La Nina threshold. Temps to rise steadily from here forward up to +1.573 degrees in Oct then fading from there. The dynamic model suggest temps peaking at +1.809 in Oct while the statistic models show +1.128 degrees. The dynamic models are running much hotter than the statistic models. The CFS model is right in the middle of the dynamic model range.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (8/7) the Daily Index was negative at -27.07 after plunging to -37.30 on 7/25 and has been mostly negative the last 25 days. It was positive the previous 21 days and had been negative 11 days prior to that and positive 5 days previous to that then negative for 27 days previous ending 6/6 with a peak down to -29.32 on 5/31, -64.63 on 5/24 and -31.31 on 5/12. Previously readings were toggling between +10 and -10 for 13 days, but negative the 15 days previous to that, positive the 6 days prior to that after being mostly negative 25 days before that. It fell to -19.40 on 4/2. -17.44 on 2/22, the beginning of a change from which no return seemed likely. It was up to +21.85 on 2/10 and +55.74 on 12/22 and were in the +20 range the previous 22 days.
The 30 day average was falling at -4.83 and fell below the neutral point on 7/26. It rose above positive 7/3-7/25. It previously fell to -19.64 on 6/5 had been falling to -4.13 on 4/4 (lagging indicator driven by the Active Phase of the MJO) after falling to -0.52 on 3/22 previously falling to +4.18 on 11/27 and peaking at +21.57 (10/16) after supposedly peaking at +19.66 on 9/28. It was down to +6.89 on 7/29. It peaked at +20.34 (5/12) the highest in a year and beating last years high of +19.51 (1/14).
The 90 day average was steady at -7.59 and turned negative the first time in years on 5/12. A recent max low was -7.57 on 6/6. It previously peaked at +14.63 on 2/20, +15.61 on 10/25 and +12.92 on 8/11 and that after peaking at +18.40 (7/2) beating it's previous peak of +16.86 (5/31), the highest in a year. It previously peaked at +9.80 (9/21) after falling to it's lowest point in a year at +1.06 (6/9). The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 (2/23/21 - clearly indicative of La Nina then). This index is a lagging indicator but suggests that the Active Phase occurring now is starting to drive the index down, hopefully with no upward trend in sight for at least a year.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative ever since, driven by recent La Nina conditions. In May-July 2021 it was the most negative its been in the -1.80 to -2.04 range since Sept 2012 (-2.99) and then fell to -3.16 in Oct 2021 (the lowest since July 1933) then settled at -2.72 in Nov and Dec 2021. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table