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BUOY ROUNDUP
On Tuesday, August 10, 2021 :

• Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor Entrance)/Buoy 239 (Lanai): Seas were 2.6 ft @ 13.2 secs with swell 1.2 ft @ 16.1 secs from 160 degrees. Water temp 79.5 degs (Pearl Harbor 233), NA (Lani 239).
• Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 2.6 ft @ 5.9 secs with swell 1.8 ft @ 6.0 secs from 36 degrees. Water temp 79.3 degs.
• Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 2.6 ft @ 13.7 secs with swell 1.7 ft @ 13.7 secs from 179 degrees. Wind at the buoy was south-southwest at 4-6 kts. Water temperature 68.4 degs, 65.5 (Topanga 103), 64.0 degs (Long Beach 215), 68.7 (Del Mar 153), 68.0 (Pt Loma 191). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 3.4 ft @ 9.0 secs from 304 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.5 ft @ 13.9 secs from 204 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 2.0 ft @ 13.7 secs from 197 degrees. Southward at Point Loma (191) swell was 1.9 ft @ 13.6 secs from 182 degrees.
• Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 4.5 ft @ 13.7 secs with swell 2.1 ft @ 13.8 secs from 196 degrees. Wind at the buoy (012) was southeast at 4-8 kts. Water temp 59.0 (Pt Reyes 029), 57.2 (46026), 61.0 degs (SF Bar 142), and 63.7 (Santa Cruz 254).

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Tuesday (8/10) North and Central CA had waves at thigh to maybe waist high and weak and warbled from southerly winds. Protected breaks were up to maybe waist high and clean on the bigger sets and clean but soft. At Santa Cruz surf was flat and clean. In Southern California/Ventura waves were flat to knee high and clean but very weak. Central Orange County had set waves at thigh to maybe waist high on the sets and clean with no wind but really weak. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets in the waist to maybe chest high range on the peak and clean but soft. North San Diego had sets waves at thigh to waist high and clean and soft and weak. Hawaii's North Shore was flat and clean. The South Shore had some rare thigh high sets and clean and soft. The East Shore was getting short period windswell with waves knee to thigh high and textured from weak east trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Tuesday (8/10) California and Hawaii had no swell of interest. But some minimal swell was pushing north towards Hawaii and the US West Coast from a weak gale that formed east of New Zealand on Wed (8/4) with up to 26 ft seas aimed northeast targeting mainly Tahiti and Hawaii. After that a more interesting gale has been on the charts for a while now and is starting to develop Tues-Wed (8/11) producing up to 39 ft seas over the South Central Pacific aimed well northeast then fading out over the Southeast Pacific on Thurs (8/12). After that things to quiet down again. And a pair of small gales are forecast tracking off North Japan on Tues-Thurs (8/12) producing 29 and 30 ft seas respectively aimed east at Hawaii though not making it to even the dateline. Maybe a hint of a Fall pattern is starting to show.

See all the details below...

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Tuesday (8/10) no swell was hitting or in nearshore waters of Hawaii and CA.

Japan Tropical Storm
But the remnants of a weak tropical system pushed west off North Japan Sun PM (8/8) with winds 45 kts over a tiny area and seas 27 ft at 37N 147.25E aimed east. On Mon AM (8/9) 45 kt west winds continued pushing east with seas 29 ft at 38N 152.25WE aimed east. More of the same occurred in the evening with seas 32 ft at 37.75N 158.25E aimed east. The gale was fading Tues AM (8/10) with 35 kt west winds and seas fading from 26 ft at 35.75N 163.25E aimed east. Small swell is radiating east towards Hawaii.

Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Sat (8/14) with swell building to 1.5 ft @ 13 secs later (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell fading on Sun (8/15) from 1.7 ft @ 11-12 secs early (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 306 degrees

Over the next 72 hours the remnants of Tropical Storm Lupit are to track east off North Japan on Tues PM (8/10) producing a broader fetch of 35-40 kt northwest winds and seas building to 23 ft at 43N 149.75E aimed southeast. On Wed AM (8/11) northwest winds to build to 45 kts with seas 25 ft at 39.75N 155.75E aimed east. In the evening 40-45 kts west winds are forecast pushing east with 30 ft seas at 41.25N 161.5E aimed east. Fetch is to collapse on Thurs AM (8/12) with west winds 35 kts and seas 23 ft at 40.75N 164.75E aimed east. In the evening some additional fetch is to redevelop at 35-40 kts from the northwest half way to the dateline with seas 23 ft at 43N 165E aimed east. Fetch is to be fading Fri AM (8/13) from 30 kts approaching the dateline with seas fading from 21 ft at 42.5N 169E aimed east. Possibly some more minimal swell to result for Oahu.

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

Tropical Update
2 minimal tropical systems pushed off Japan offering potential for swell radiating into Hawaii (see North Pacific Short Term forecast above).

On Tues AM (8/10) tropical storm Kevin was 500 nmiles southwest of Cabo San Lucas Mexico or 900 niles south-southeast of San Diego with winds 45 kts tracking west- northwest at 8 kts producing 18 ft seas. Kevin is forecast to continue on this heading and strength into Tues evening and then start fading while tracking on a more westerly course. positioned 750 nmiles south of San Diego on Wed AM (8/11) with winds 40 kts and seas about 15 kts aimed north. Low odds of any meaningful swell resulting for Southern CA (maybe some 11 second background swell at best from 165-180 degrees).

Theoretically a strong tropical system is to be pushing from south of Baja into the Southern CA swell window over the coming weekend. Will monitor.

California Nearshore Forecast

• Wed (8/11) winds are to be light and directionless (10 kts or less) early for all of North and Central CA early turning northwest and still light in the afternoon. No windswell production forecast.
• Thurs (8/12) northwest winds to be light all day with no windswell production forecast.
• Fri (8/13) no change forecast.
• Sat (8/14) northwest winds to be 10 kts early for all of North and Central CA building to 15 kts in the afternoon. Still no windswell production forecast.
• Sun (8/15) northwest winds to be 15-20 kts for North CA focused mainly south of Pt Arena early and 20 kts for Central CA early holding for North Ca later but 20-25 kts for Central CA focused on Pt Conception. Limited windswell developing south of Bodega Bay.
• Mon (8/16) the summertime pressure gradient is to redevelop with northwest winds 25-30 kts for North Ca early and 10-15 kts for Central CA early building in the afternoon for North CA at 30-35 kts and holding at 10 kts for Central CA later. Windswell production up.
• Tues (8/17) northwest winds are forecast at 30-35 kts for North Ca early focused on Cape Mendocino with a light eddy flow for Central CA. Windswell holding.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth at 0, 0, 0, and 0 inches respectively.

Freezing level 14,000+ ft solid with no change forecast.

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Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level (more here - scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts). Updated!

 

South Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Tuesday (8/10) the influential southern branch of the jet was pushing northeast under New Zealand being fed by 130 kt winds carving out a trough and offering building support for gale development there. But a ridge was still in play over the South Central and Southeast Pacific offering no support for gale development. Over the next 72 hours the trough is to build northeast to a point about half way up New Zealand and moving east over the South Central Pacific and into the Southeast Pacific on Fri (8/13) but with winds pretty weak feeding the trough perhaps offering some support for gale development. Beyond 72 hours a new ridge is to start building in the west on Fri (8/13) but weak and fading but then getting reinforced on Sun (8/15) only to fade again with a new trough pushing under New Zealand Mon-Tues (8/17). But a weak but steady ridge is to be tracking down at 75S over Antarctica from a point south of New Zealand and east of there over the entirety of the Pacific from late Monday (8/16) onward likely shutting support for gale development down.

Surface Analysis
On Tuesday (8/10) swell from a cutoff gale was pushing north towards Hawaii (see New Zealand Cutoff Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours a new gale was developing east of New Zealand on Tues AM (8/10) producing south winds at 45 kts with seas 28 ft over a small area at 40S 167W aimed northeast. In the evening fetch is to build rapidly to 50 kts from the south-southeast over a decent sized area with seas building to 36 ft at 47.75S 160W aimed northeast. On Wed Am (8/11) fetch is to be elongating to the northeast over a solid sized area at 40-45 kts with 39 ft seas at 44.75S 153.25S aimed northeast. In the evening southwest winds to be 40+ kts over the Central South Pacific with seas 36 ft aT 42.25s 145.75W aimed northeast. Fetch is to be fading Thurs AM (8/12) from 35 kts from the west with seas 32 ft at 42S 141W aimed east-northeast. In the evening fetch is to be fading from 30-35 kts from the southwest winds seas 29-30 ft at 42S 136W aimed east-northeast. the gale is to fade from there. Possible semi real swell to result for Tahiti, Hawaii and California with a very south angled for Hawaii.

 

New Zealand Cutoff Gale
A cutoff gale started developing east of New Zealand on Tues AM (8/3) producing 35+ kt south winds along the northeast coast of NZ getting some traction. In the evening south winds were 40 kts over a solid area with seas building to 23 ft at 39S 176.5W aimed northeast. On Wed AM (8/4) 35 kt south winds continued with seas 26 ft over a small area at 40S 174W aimed northeast. Fetch was fading in the evening at 30-35 kts over a broad area aimed north with 25 ft seas at 35S 166W aimed northeast. Fetch was fading after that at 30 kts from the west with seas 23-24 ft on Thurs AM (8/5) at 36S 158W aimed northeast and fading. The gale dissipated from there. Low odds for swell resulting for California through Hawaii and Tahiti could get some rideable swell.

Hawaii: Expect swell arrival on Tues (8/10) building to 1.8 ft @ 15-16 secs later (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell holding Wed AM (8/11) at 1.9 ft @ 14 secs early (2.5 ft). Swell fading on Thurs AM (8/12) from 1.9 ft @ 13 secs early (2.0-2.5 ft). Dribbles on Fri AM (8/13) fading from 1.6 ft @ 13 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 191 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Fri (8/13) building to 1.4 ft @ 15-16 secs mid-day (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell continues on Sat (8/14) at 1.7 ft @ 14 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell fading on Sun (8/15) from 1.5 ft @ 13 secs (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 220 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Fri (8/13) building to 1.5 ft @ 15-16 secs mid-day (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell continues on Sat (8/14) at 1.6 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell fading on Sun (8/15) from 1.8 ft @ 13 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 220 degrees

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch is forecast.

 

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no obvious and believable swell producing weather systems are forecast.

 

MJO/ENSO Forecast

 

La Nina Redeveloping
Summary - Cool water is building across the subsurface equatorial Pacific with warm water from previous Kelvin Waves fading and existing only in the east. The forecast suggests east anomalies taking over the equatorial Pacific from the dateline eastward in later August. And a high pressure bias is forecast to control the KWGA this Fall. Blocking high pressure is starting to rebuild and is to hold through Winter 2021-2022.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. A slow dissolving of La Nina started in March 2021 with 2 Kelvin Waves sweeping east and arriving over the Galapagos in June. Weak warming set up over the equator with no cool waters present. NOAA declared La Nina dead.

LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST

Spring/Summer 2021 = 4.0/3.5 (California & Hawaii) Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)

Rationale: It is assumed that the moderate La Nina from the Winter of 2020/2021 is on the wane and that a return to neutral ENSO state will set up over the Pacific Basin through the summer of 2021. But lingering effects of La Nina are forecast to continue over the Pacific for some time as the upper atmospheric circulation slowly transitions to an ENSO neutral state. This scenario tend to favor the Southeast Pacific, therefore favoring California over Hawaii. To counter that is the forecasted movement of the low pressure bias currently in-flight from the Maritime Continent to the West Pacific over the next 3 months. Still it will take some time for the atmosphere to fully respond, resulting in a slightly less than normal swell production forecast. A somewhat reduced number of storm days and storm intensity is expected as compared to normal over the South Pacific during the early summer season, resulting in a below normal level of swells, with swell being below normal duration and period. But by the Fall and early Winter of 2021/22, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start improving as La Nina fades out. The status of the PDO is not known, though it appears to be returning to at least a neutral state, rather than the warm phase as previously projected thereby having no significant positive or negative effect on the long term outlook.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (8/9) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific then strong east over the Central Pacific and moderate over the KWGA. Anomalies were moderate east over the far East equatorial Pacific and neutral over the Central Pacific and light east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (8/10) east anomalies were moderate filling the KWGA. The forecast calls for east anomalies building at moderate to strong status filling the KWGA for the next week and expanding east into the Central equatorial Pacific on 8/17 at the end of the model run. No sign of the Active Phase of the MJO is forecast.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:  
OLR Models: (8/9) A modest Inactive MJO signal was indicated build over the KWGA today. The statistic model projects an Inactive Pattern holding over the KWGA on day 5 of the model run filling the KWGA and building to strong status on day 10 continuing unchanged on day 15 of the model run. The dynamic model projects the same thing initially but with the Inactive Phase rapidly dissipating on day 15 of the model run turning neutral.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (8/10) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was weak over North Africa and forecast tracking steadily east to the West Maritime continent at very weak weak status 15 days out. The dynamic model suggests the Active Phase is to build to moderate status over North Africa the next few days then tracking east and fading at weak status over the East Indian Ocean on day 15 of the model run.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (8/9) A modest Inactive Phase (dry air) was indicated over filling the KWGA. The Inactive Phase (dry air) is to be moving east over the Central Pacific and then into Central America on 9/3. A very weak Active Phase is forecast developing over the KWGA on 9/8 tracking east and filling the equatorial Pacific at the end of the model run on 9/18.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (8/9) This model depicts the Active MJO almost east of the KWGA with modest west anomalies effectively out of the KWGA today. A solid Inactive Phase was starting to push into the West KWGA today with east anomalies preceding it filling most of the KWGA today. The forecast indicates the Inactive MJO signal is to move through the KWGA 8/12-8/26 with moderate to strong east anomalies filling the KWGA during that window. East anomalies are to try and hold over the East KWGA after that through the end of the model run on 9/6 while the Active Phase builds strong over the Maritime Continent with west anomalies preceding it pushing into the West KWGA 8/28-9/6.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (8/10 - using the 4th/latest ensemble member): Today a solid Inactive Phase of the MJO was building over the KWGA with neutral to weak east anomalies trying to get a foothold.The forecast indicates the Inactive Phase is to building filling the KWGA through 9/4 with modest to moderate east anomalies in control. A decent Active Phase is to develop while slowly pushing east 8/28 through 10/5 with west anomalies reaching east to about 170E (70% of the way across the KWGA) through that timeframe with solid east anomalies east of there filling the equatorial Pacific to a point south of California. A weak Inactive MJO pattern is to try and push into the KWGA on 9/27 but fading with a neutral MJO pattern in control at the end of the model run on 11/6 with mostly weak west anomalies holding over the KWGA. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias is in control limited to the area south of California (with one contour line) and the low pressure bias over the West KWGA centered at 125E filling the western 50% of the KWGA to 155E. The high pressure contour line is to hold over the far East Pacific then back-build west on the dateline on 9/2 and holding that position filling the eastern portion of the KWGA through the end of the model run. The single contour low pressure bias is to dissipate on 8/15 then rebuild 9/15 recentered over the Maritime Continent at 100E like last winter and holding through the end of the model run. East anomalies to take over the KWGA east of 165E on 8/30 with west anomalies west of there and no change forecast. This suggests a return to some flavor of a weak La Nina pressure pattern by September with east anomalies and high a pressure bias taking over from the mid-KWGA and points east of there. This forecast has been stable for over a month now suggesting it will actually happen.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (8/10) Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was easing east to 176E. The 28 deg isotherm line was steady at 170W. The 24 deg isotherm was steady at 120W today. Warm water has receded west. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies +0-1 deg C were pushing east mostly just below the surface in a thin stream into Ecuador. Cool anomalies at -1 degs were weak below the warm stream. Warm water from previous Kelvin Waves were fading but there was no signs of an obvious switch to a cool regime queued up. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 8/67 was far more stark suggesting no warm water remaining east of the dateline except for one small pocket near Ecuador. A solid stream of cool water was pushing up from 150 meters down on the dateline and breaching the surface in the east just west of the Galapagos. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (8/6) Sea heights were falling over the entire equatorial Pacific with negative anomalies at -5 to -10 cms over the East equatorial Pacific between Ecuador to 160W on the equator and all positive anomalies gone west of the dateline. A warm water 'horseshoe' pattern was redeveloping in the West Pacific. La Nina is making a return.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (8/9) The latest images depict warm water on the equator limited to the area from Ecuador west to a point a bit west of the Galapagos (100W), then only in pockets from there west to 140W with mostly cooler waters developing in waves, and only cooler waters west of there. An area of weak warming was holding along Chile and Peru. A more cohesive pocket of warm water was along Central America up to Southern Baja. Overall this seems to indicate the return of La Nina.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (8/9): A string of mostly cold pockets were filling the area from Ecuador to 140W.
Hi-res Overview: (8/9) A broad area of warmer than normal water was nearshore along Peru, then off Ecuador and Central America up into Mexico but brick walled limited from 105W and points east of there. Cooler waters were on the equator from 105W to the dateline. A clear cool outflow was still pushing from California southwest to the a point over Hawaii's Big Island. La Nina appears to be trying to make a resurgence.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (8/10) Today's temps were falling at -0.176. Temps were toggling around neutral 7/20-8/5 after previously falling to -0.411 on 7/8. Temps previously peaked at +0.213 on 6/17, the highest since 3/16 when they briefly hit +0.714 degs. But in between they've been in the -0.75 range. The longterm trend has been stable and mostly below normal.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (8/10) Today temps were stable at -0.198, after falling steadily from 7/1 when they peaked at +0.332, the highest in a year. They previously reached up to +0.224 on 6/15 and before that at +0.085 on (6/1), beating the previous peak high of +0.040 on 5/3. Temps previously had been steady near -0.222 since early March. Temps bottomed out at -1.654 on 11/3. Temps have been on a steadily increasing trend.

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (8/10) - Actuals per the model indicate temps had been rising since early Nov 2020 when they bottomed out at -1.25 degs, building to -0.01 degs in mid-June then starting a slow fade to -0.3 degs in early Aug. The forecast indicates temps holding near -0.45 degs till mid-Sept dropping to -0.85 degs in mid-Oct and holding in that area to mid Jan 2022. A slow but steady increase is forecast from there rising to +0.00 degs in mid April 2022. This model suggests a return of La Nina conditions this Fall and Winter. There is no indication that El Nino will develop. The PDF Corrected forecast suggests temp falling only to -0.75 degs in Nov into early Jan 2022.
IRI Consensus Plume: The July 20, 2021 Plume depicts temps are at -0.23 degs today, and are to fade steadily to -0.55 degrees in Nov and stabilizing there into December, then rising to neutral in Feb 2022. A weak return of La Nina is expected this Fall and Winter 2021-2022.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - this is a lagging indicator) (8/10): The daily index was still positive at +17.72 after peaking at +37.86 on 7/15. The Inactive Phase was solid. The 30 day average was fading some at +10.45 after rising to +16.49 on 7/29 after falling to -3.36 on 6/22, the lowest in a year and beating the previous low on 6/14 of -2.08. It peaked at +19.51 on 1/14. The 90 day average was falling to +5.79 after falling to it's lowest point in a year on 6/9 at +1.06. The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 on 2/23 (clearly indicative of La Nina then). This index is a lagging indicator.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative every since, driven by recent La Nina conditions. As of May 2021 it was the most negative its been at -2.04 since Sept 2012. Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'). It is more likely we are still in the cool phase of the PDO.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 

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Powerlines

Jeff Clark

Inside Mavericks

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table