Pacific Storm & Surf Forecast (Stormsurf)

Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt)/Buoy 239 (Lani): Seas were 3.4 ft @ 12.5 secs with swell 1.1 ft @ 19.9 secs from 210 degrees. Water temp 80.6 (Barbers Pt), 80.6 (Pearl Harbor 233), 80.6 (Lani 239).
Buoy 106 (Waimea)/Buoy 202 (Hanalei): Seas were 4.1 ft @ 14.3 secs with swell 2.7 ft @ 13.5 secs from 314 degrees. Water temp 80.2 degs
Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 5.3 ft @ 12.0 secs with swell 3.3 ft @ 10.3 secs from 267 degrees. Wind northeast at 10-12 kts. Water temperature 65.1 degs, 60.0 (Harvest 071) 65.8 (Topanga 103), 66.0 (Long Beach 215), 66.4 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 64.6 (Del Mar 153), 65.7 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 7.2 ft @ 14.1 secs from 306 degrees. At E. Santa Barbara (46053) swell was 3.7 ft @ 13.4 secs from 297 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 2.8 ft @ 9.2 secs from 261 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 3.2 ft @ 10.0 secs from 274 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 2.9 ft @ 11.2 secs from 264 degrees. Water temperature was 64.0 degrees (Imperial Beach).
Buoy 029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 10.3 ft @ 12.5 secs with swell 6.0 ft @ 13.0 secs from 307 degrees. Wind northwest at 12-16 kts (46026). Water temp NA (Bodega Bay 46013), 57.7 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 59.5 (San Francisco 46026), 59.9 (SF Bar 142) and 61.9 (Monterey Bay 46042).

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Thursday (10/12) in North and Central CA waves were 2 ft overhead on the sets and lined up but pretty ragged and warbled and crumbled from northwest wind. Protected breaks were 1 ft overhead on the sets and fairly clean but soft with some intermixed warble. At Santa Cruz surf was head high and lined up and fairly clean but with some intermixed warble and soft. In Southern California/Ventura waves were waist to chest high and clean and lined up with decent form but soft. Central Orange County had sets at chest to shoulder high and lined up and clean when they came but soft. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets at head high on the peak when they came and fairly lined up and clean but soft and crumbled. North San Diego had sets at chest to near head high and lined up and clean with decent form. Oahu's North Shore was getting new swell with waves 1-2 ft overhead and lined up and clean with decent form. The South Shore had sets at thigh to waist high and soft but clean. The East Shore was flat and lightly chopped from modest easterly trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Thursday (10/12) raw swell was hitting California from a gale that developed over the Eastern Gulf Mon-Tues (10/10) producing 24 ft seas building to 26 ft late Tuesday off North Oregon. And sideband swell was hitting Hawaii from a weak gale that tracked up to the dateline on Tues (10/10) with 18 ft seas. A far more solid gale developed off the Kuril Islands tracking east-northeast on Wed-Thurs (10/12) with 46 ft seas over the North Dateline region and then is forecast fading in the far Northwestern Gulf on Fri (10/13). And we're watching possible development of Typhoon Bolaven tracking north off the Philippines forecast to turn extratropical while recurving over the lower dateline region on Sun-Mon (10/16) with 55-60 ft seas then fading while tracking northeast through the Gulf of Alaska. A possible 'real' Fall pattern is setting up.

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

Overview
Jetstream
On Thursday (10/12) the jet was consolidated tracking east on the 43N latitude line from Japan almost flat to the Central Gulf with winds to 170 kts forming a tight pinched trough over the Gulf offering only limited support for gale development. But the main body of the jet was offering support for gale development north of it. Over the next 72 hours the jet is to tilt southeast some forming abroad trough over the dateline moving to the Central Gulf on Sat (10/14) being fed by 180 kts winds offering great support for gale development. That trough is to pinch off in the Gulf of Sunday (10/15) with support fading out. Beyond 72 hours another trough is to start building on the dateline Sun (10/15) falling southeast getting solid in the Gulf on Mon (10/16) being fed by 140 kts winds offering more support for gale development. Additional winds energy is to build into that trough on Wed (10/18) in the Central Gulf again supporting gale development then starting to pinch off on Thurs (10/19) offering less support. At that time the jet is to rising some off Japan over the dateline then falling south to a point just north of Hawaii with the jet still pretty consolidated. The future looks good.

Surface Analysis
On Thursday (10/12) raw swell was hitting CA from a gale previously in the Eastern Gulf (see Second Gulf Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours swell is to be radiating southeast from yet another and stronger storm pushing east over the North Dateline region (see North Dateline Gale below).

Second Gulf Gale
Another gale started building Mon AM (10/9) in the Central Gulf with 35-40 kts northwest winds and seas 20 ft over a tiny area at 46N 152W aimed southeast. In the evening northwest winds continued at 35-40 kts from the northwest with seas 24 ft at 45.5N 144.5W aimed southeast. On Tues AM (10/10) the gale was lifting northeast with northwest winds 30-35 kts with seas 22 ft at 45N 136.5W aimed southeast and a bit off the coast of Oregon. Fetch is to hold off North Oregon in the evening rebuilding to 35-40 kts with 27 ft seas at 45.5N 133W aimed southeast (318.8 degs NCal) and moving east of the NCal swell window. On Wed AM (10/11) the gale is to be poised to move inland over Oregon with 30-35 kt west winds and seas 23 ft at 45.5N 129W aimed east. Possible better odds for swell radiating into the California coast but also local wind to not be favorable for exposed breaks.

North CA: Swell fading on Thurs (10/12) from 7.0 ft @ 12-13 secs early (8.0 ft). Residuals on Fri (10/13) fading from 4.0 ft @ 10 secs (4.0 ft). Swell Direction: 310-315 degrees.

North Dateline Gale
Starting Tues PM (10/10) a gale developed off the Southern Kuril Islands with 45 kt west winds over a small area starting to get traction on the oceans surface while lifting east-northeast with seas building from 20 ft at 37N 159E aimed east. On Wed AM (10/11) west and northwest winds built to 50 kts with seas 27 ft at 43.5N 168E aimed east. The gale was racing east-northeast in the evening with 55 kt west winds approaching the North Dateline region with seas 43 ft at 47N 177E aimed east. On Thurs AM (10/12) the storm was just south of the Central Aleutians over the dateline with 50 kt west winds over a solid area with seas 46 ft at 49.5N 175W aimed east. In the evening fetch is to be fading from 35-40 kts as the gale continue east just south of Aleutians with seas fading from 37 ft at 52N 170W aimed east free and clear of land. On Fri AM (10/13) residual fetch is to hold over the North Dateline region with fetch fading with 30-35 kt west winds and seas fading from 25 ft at 48N 168W aimed east. The gale is to dissipate from there. Something to monitor.

Oahu: Rough data suggest swell arrival on Sat (10/14) building to 2.7 ft @ 17 secs late (4.5 ft). Swell peaking Sun AM (10/15) at 2.5 ft @ 14-15 secs (3.6 ft) early. Residuals on Mon (10/16) fading from 3.4 ft @ 12-13 secs (4.0-4.5 ft). Swell Direction: 330 degrees

North CA: Rough data suggests swell arrival on Sun (10/15) building to 2.8 ft @ 19 secs with a few sets to 4.0 ft @ 19 secs (5.0-7.0 ft). Swell continues Mon (10/16) at 3.1 ft @ 16 secs with a few sets to 4.5 ft @ 16 secs (5.0-7.0 ft). Swell fading Tues (10/17) from 3.6 ft @ 14 secs (5.0 ft). Swell Direction: 303-307 degrees and shadowed in the SF Bay Area.

Southern CA: Rough data suggests swell arrival on Mon (10/16) at 1.3 ft @ 17 secs early (2.0 ft). Swell continues on Tues (10/17) at 1.6 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell fading on Wed (10/18) from 1.7 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 307-311 degrees

Tropical Update
On Sun AM (10/8) Tropical Storm Bolevan was developing 1,600 nmiles west of the Philippines with winds 45 kts tracing northwest. Bolevan turned to Super Typhoon Status turning north and was building into Wed AM (10/11) positioned 1,200 nmiles west of Taiwan with winds 155 kts. On Thurs AM (10/12) Super Typhoon Bolevan was turning northeast 800 nmiles south-southeast of Tokyo Japan with winds 155 kts. By Fri AM (10/13) Bolevan is to start accelerating northeast 600 nmiles southeast of Tokyo with winds 135 kts. On Sat AM (10/14) Bolevan is to be 1,200 east of North Japan with winds 105 kts turning extratropical while accelerating more. From there it heads to the dateline. See more details in the Longterm Forecast below.

Fri AM (10/13) winds to be from the south at 5 kts for Cape Mendocino and northwest 5 kts for the rest of North Ca and all of Central CA early. In the afternoon a front and south winds to be 15-20 kts for Pt Arena northward and south 5 kts down to Pt Reyes with northwest winds 5 kts for Central CA. Light rain building over most of North CA into the early evening. No windswell forecast.
Sat AM (10/14) a local low is to be building off North CA with south winds to be 5-10 kts for North CA early and calm for Central CA early. In the afternoon the low is to lifting northeast hard approaching Oregon with west winds to be 5 kts for Cape Mendocino and northwest winds 5 kts south of Pt Arena to the Golden Gate and northwest 5 kts south of there. No windswell forecast. Light rain for North CA early but fading fast.
Sun AM (10/15) another local low is to be building west of North CA with south winds are forecast at 10 kts for Cape Mendocino but east winds 1-5 kts from Pt Arena southward and northwest 5-10 kts south of Big Sur early. In the afternoon south winds to be 10+ kts for Cape Mendocino and southwest 5 kts to Pt Reyes and northwest 5-10 kts to Pt Conception. No precip forecast.
Mon AM (10/16) the local low is to raving north and off Washington with south winds 15+ kts for r Cape Mendocino and south winds 10 kts to the Golden Gate and northwest winds 5 kts from the Golden Gate southward. In the afternoon the front is to have moved inland over North CA with west winds 10-15 kts for North CA and northwest winds 10 kts for Central Ca but up to 15 kts south of Monterey Bay. Rain developing for Cape Mendocino late.
Tues AM (10/17) northwest winds are forecast at 10-15 kts for North CA early and the same down to Monterey Bay but 15-20 kts south of there to Pt Conception. In the afternoon high pressure sets up with northwest winds 15-20 kts for all of North and Central CA. Rain dissipating for North CA early.
Wed AM (10/18) high pressure holds with northwest winds 15-20 kts for all of North and Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds fade to 15 kts for North and Central CA. No precip forecast.
Thurs AM (10/19) northwest winds to be 15 kts mainly off the North and Central coast and 10 kts nearshore early. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 10 kts for all of North and Central CA.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at 0, 0, 0, and 0 inches respectively.

Temperatures for the Pacific Crest Trail and Tioga Pass Road intersection (8,700 ft): 35-40 degrees through Fri night (10/13) then warming to 40-45 degs through Sun AM (10/15) then 50-55 degs steady beyond.

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Thurs (10/12) swell from a small gale previously south of New Zealand was radiating north targeting Tahiti and Hawaii (see New Zealand Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours swell from another gale that developed southeast of New Zealand is to be tracking northeast (see Another New Zealand Gale below)

New Zealand Gale
On Mon AM (10/9) a gale started developing while tracking northeast under New Zealand producing 35 kt southwest winds over a solid area with seas 27 ft at 51S 170E aimed northeast and mostly shadowed by New Zealand. In the afternoon a broad fetch of southwest winds were 35 kts just southeast of New Zealand with seas aimed northeast at 27 ft at 52.75S 169.25E aimed northeast. On Tues AM (10/10) south winds were 30 kts with 23 ft seas fading at 48.75S 178.72W aimed northeast. The gale dissipated from there. Maybe some small swell to result for Tahiti and Hawaii.

Oahu South Shore: Expect swell arrival on later on Mon (10/16) building to 1.2 ft @ 16-17 secs later (2.0 ft). Swell building some on Tues (10/17) pushing 1.5 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell fading on Wed (10/18) from 1.5 ft @ 14 secs early (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 200 degrees

Another New Zealand Gale
On Tuesday PM (10/10) another gale developed south of New Zealand producing 40-45 kt west winds with seas 27 ft at 55S 165.5E aimed northeast. On Wed AM (10/11) the gale was track east producing 40-45 kt southwest winds over a tiny area southeast of New Zealand with seas 29 ft at 56.75S 175E aimed east-northeast. In the evening southwest winds were 35-40 kts with seas 29 ft at 54S 180W aimed northeast. The gale held while easing east on Thurs AM (10/12) with 35-40 kt southwest winds and seas 29 ft at 61.5S 175W aimed northeast. The gale to fade in the evening.

Oahu South Shore: Expect swell arrival on Wed (10/18) building to 1.3 ft @ 17 secs late (2.0 ft). Swell building on Thurs (10/19) to 1.7 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.5 ft). Swell fading Fri (10/20) from 1.8 ft @ 14-15 secs early (2.5 ft). Residuals on Sat (10/21) fading from 1.4 ft @ 13 secs (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 192 degrees

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

Beyond 72 hours the remnants of Super Typhoon Storm Bolaven are to turn extratropical while tracking east approaching the dateline Sun AM (10/15) with winds 60 kts and seas 56 ft at 41N 176E. The storm is to continue on a easterly heading in the evening with with 55 kts moving over the dateline with seas 53 ft at 42N 175.5W aimed east. On Mon AM (10/16) ET Bolevan is to start falling southeast with winds 50 kts and seas with 51 ft at 40.25N 170W aimed east. In the evening fetch is to start fading as the storm moves into the Western Gulf with 45 kt west winds and seas 41 ft at 38.25N 162W aimed southeast. By Tues (10/17) extratropical storm Bolevan to be fading in the Central Gulf 1200 nmiles north of Hawaii with 35 kt west winds and seas 32 ft at 39.75N 153.25W aimed southeast, Bolevan to fade from there. Something to monitor for Hawaii and California.

El Nino In Control and Steadily Building
Kelvin Waves #4, #5 and #6 Erupting - NINO3.4 SSTs reflect El Nino
1 Kelvin Wave traversed the Pacific in Dec '22 with a 2nd in Jan-Feb and a 3rd and 4th in March-April, a 5th in May and a 6th in August. But after the last Active MJO in mid-to-late May (resulting in Kevin Wave #5), the MJO stalled. Finally the Active Phase restarted in later July Producing Kelvin Wave #6 which is erupting off Ecuador now. Sea Surface Temperatures in the east are warm and holding, and slightly expanding. And another Active Phase of the MJO is developing now (mid-Oct) likely starting to produce Kelvin Wave #7 which is pushing east. All these Active MJO/Kevin Wave pairs are backfilling warm water off Ecuador and helping push the atmosphere towards El Nino. And El Nino is finally starting to be evident in the atmosphere as evidenced by the SOI, OLR. ocean current, and wind anomalies.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023.

Rationale: A 3 year La Nina started fading in Jan 2023 and was gone by April. 3 Active MJO's produced 3 Kelvin Waves with the 3rd in that series poised to start erupting off Ecuador now (May 2023). The CFS model is predicting steady west anomalies from here forward and the leading edge of the low pressure bias on the dateline and forecast to nearly fill the Pacific during June. We are in a state of transition from ENSO neutral to El Nino during the summer of 2023. As a result we will be moving from a period of reduced number of storm days and storm intensity during the early part of Summer towards a period of enhanced storm production starting Late July and beyond, getting fairly intense come Fall. This should result in a slightly below normal level of swells, with swells being below normal duration and period over early Summer. But by late July 2023, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start improving as El Nino starts getting a solid footprint on the atmosphere. The net result is we're currently thinking a near normal number of swells with normal size and duration is to result, but all focused sometime after late July 2023. The swell pattern will be normal to somewhat below normal before July and above normal after July 23. And By Sept, the El Nino footprint should be solid. Of course this is all highly speculative at this early and based mostly on the CFS model and it's projection of a building ENSO footprint getting solid by Sept.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (10/11) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the East equatorial Pacific and moderate to strong east over the Central Pacific and moderate west over the KWGA. The dividing line was 175E. Anomalies were light east over the East equatorial Pacific and neutral over the Central Pacific and moderate to strong west over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (10/12) Moderate east anomalies were filling the West KWGA today but west anomalies from 175E and points east of there to Ecuador. The forecast indicates east anomalies holding but retrograding to about 150E with west anomalies east of there filling 60% of the KWGA through the end of the model run on 10/28.

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (10/11) A modest Inactive MJO was over the KWGA. The statistic model indicates the Inactive MJO is to build some on day 5 building to strong status on day 10 and holding on day 15 of the model run. The dynamic model depicts the Inactive Phase holding at weak to modest strength through day 10 and then to moderate status on day 15.
Phase Diagrams - 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (10/12) The statistical model depicts the Active signal was weak over Africa. The forecast indicates it is to move to the Indian Ocean 15 days out and split between weak and super strong. The dynamic model indicates the Active signal meandering over Africa at weak status for the next 2 weeks.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (10/12) A neutral MJO pattern was indicated over the KWGA today. The forecast has a very weak Inactive Phase (dry air) tracking east and over the KWGA 10/22-11/6 then turning weak Active (wet air) 11/11 through the end of the model run on 11/21. But the extreme weakness of this suggest an El Nino pattern is in play now.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (10/11) Today a neutral MJO was over the KWGA but with modest west anomalies filling the KWGA. with an Equatorial Rossby Wave passing over the KWGA. The forecast has the rossby wave fading out on 10/17. After that west anomalies are to quickly return at strong status starting 10/17 centered on the dateline and building over the entirety of the West KWGA by 10/21 and in control holding from there through the end of the model run on 11/8 with a Active MJO signal starting 11/6. Of note: Moderate east anomalies started building over the Indian Ocean on 9/2 and are now at strong status today and forecast building through the end of the model run at very strong status. That coupled with building west anomalies in the West Pacific suggest massively falling air occurring somewhere near 90E (East Indian Ocean). This could be the falling branch of the Walker Circulation. The Indian Ocean Dipole is currently strong positive and building (the falling branch of the Walker Circulation). We're at the precipice of the start of a real El Nino pattern according to this model.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (10/10) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today the Active Phase was weakly filling the KWGA with weak to modest west anomalies in control. The Active Phase is to hold weakly through 11/25 with moderate west anomalies developing on 10/17 filling the KWGA moving forward through 12/1. A solid Inactive Phase develops 11/15 in the far west KWGA filling it through 12/31 but with west anomalies holding at modest to moderate strength. Also note that east anomalies started building at 70E (West Indian Ocean) on 9/7 and are forecast building through 11/5, holding through 12/13 then moderating some and holding through the end of the model run. This strong east and west anomaly pattern looks very much like falling air centered over the East Indian Ocean (110E) and the the downward branch of the Walker Circulation/+IOD. Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) suggests cloud activity took over the KWGA weakly on 6/24 and started building in earnest June 25 and then more solid starting Sept 15 and is continuing to build today. It is forecast building strongly from here forward but especially starting 10/12. Conversely clear skies started building over the Maritime Continent in mid-May and have continued solidifying today and are forecast building from here forward especially starting 10/10. This also suggest a fall and rising air pattern associated with the change in the Walker Circulation. The low pass filter indicates a broad low pressure bias is established over the KWGA centered at 180W with 3 contour lines (starting 7/14) and it's leading edge well east of the dateline at 120W (over California) today (it started pushing east on 2/15). The primary contours leading edge is to slowly ease east to 105W (well past California) by 11/30 with it's center moving to 175W and a 4th contour line developing Nov 5. A 5th contour line is scheduled to develop on 12/23. The high pressure bias has dissolved and is no longer in the Pacific but started to build over the Maritime Continent on 10/2. A second high pressure contour is to develop on 12/3. 7/18 was the start of a major positive change in the development of El Nino with advent of the Active Phase of the MJO and west anomalies and that momentum is growing stronger each passing day. It appears a strong El Nino is finally starting to develop in a classical sense.

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (10/12) Today in the far West Pacific the leading edge of the 30 deg isotherm was steady at 171W (previously 169W). The 29 degree isotherm was backtracking easing east at 159W (previously 162W). The 28 deg isotherm line was backtracking at 149W (previously 140W). The 24 degree isotherm extended the whole way across the Pacific and was steady at 39m (25m 4 days earlier and at one point down to 65m) in the far East. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies at +2 deg C started in the far West Pacific at 173E associated with newly developing Kelvin Wave #7 centered at 172W pushing east in a continuous stream feeding into Kelvin Wave #6 and other previous Kelvin Waves that have forming a broad pocket of +3-5 degs anomalies over the East Pacific starting at 167W (152W on 9/11). +4-5 degree anomalies were building in coverage starting at 135W (previously 138W). The warm pool in the east (originating from Kelvin Waves #6, 5, 4...) is discharging to the surface while being backfilled by more warm water/Kelvin Wave #7. There's about 3 months of warm water backed up off the Ecuadorian Coast (previously 2 months) today with a stream of warm water backfilling into it. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 10/5 indicates a large very warm stream of +1-2 degs anomalies extending west to east starting at 165E and over a large section of the subsurface equatorial Pacific (Kelvin Wave #7) and building while tracking east with 2 deg anomalies from 135W and points east of there and +4-5 degs anomalies from 121W and points east of there originating from Kelvin Waves #6, #5 and #4 erupting into Ecuador. A steady stream of +1-2 degree anomalies were falling off the Maritime Continent merging with the preexisting warm stream. In other words, this image suggests a steady flow of warm water flowing east from the Maritime Continent suggesting Kelvin Wave #8 is developing. No cool anomalies were indicated. El Nino is developing. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (10/5) Sea heights were positive across the equatorial Pacific starting at 165E at +0-5 cms extending east into Ecuador. +5 cm anomalies were in the east from 160W east into Ecuador with 2 pockets of +10 cm anomalies imbedded to the south. Positive anomalies extending north into Central America up to the southern tip of Baja and south to North Peru. This means no cool water was at depth. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (10/5) warm water is building at +0.5 degs from 172E and points east of there but +1.00-1.50 degs were all but gone limited to 116W to 95W over the East Pacific and shrinking in coverage while migrating east. A pocket of near neutral to slightly negative anomalies was between 140-160E and shrinking. The warm water flow had backed off some with nothing to force more warm water east (i.e. no Active MJOs occurring) in July. But a new Kelvin Wave is now in flight. Otherwise there's been no change since mid March, a steady flow of warm water pushing east.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (10/11) The latest images depict a strong warm signal along the coasts of Peru and Ecuador out to 115W and building in strength and coverage. A moderate warm signal continued west on the equator out to 135W (previously 155W). The warm pool is no longer growing westward and if anything has lost some coverage in the west while building in the east. Lesser heat extended west to the dateline and beyond. Heat also extends north up to Central Baja and south down into Patagonia. There is a very clear El Nino signal with the classic El Nino triangle in-place but nowhere as strong as months past. The last remnants of La Nina are gone on the equator but remnants are still evident in a fading cool pool from a point well off Southern Baja from 130W west to a point south of Hawaii at 175W. The Cool Pool is slowly collapsing. La Nina is all but gone now atmospherically over the Pacific.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (10/11): A small thin stream of warm anomalies were aligned on the equator from the Galapagos west to 110W and in pockets out to 130W. Otherwise mostly neutral temps prevailed. Perhaps some energy is being added to the warm surface pool. A warming trend had been well entrenched over the East Pacific since Nov 1 2022 with no cooling waters over the equatorial East Pacific since 12/15.
Hi-res Overview: (10/11) Warmer than normal waters are filling the East Pacific off Chile, Peru, Ecuador and north up to Mexico with strong warming in many pockets from Ecuador out to 110W and building. And the classic El Nino tongue of more intense warming is building considerably over the equator west to the dateline and beyond. Everything is now looking like El Nino. And the La NIna enhanced cool pool off California is fading and drifting west, while weakening.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (10/12) (The official OISST temp record runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were falling more at +1.748 after steadily fading down to +1.527 (10/6) (previously +2.10 - 9/17) and have been falling since 8/31 when they were up to +3.073 after rising to +3.164 (8/18) after being up to +2.925 on 8/10 after rising at +3.074 degs (8/7) after being up to +3.391 (on 7/20) and had been rising from +2.906 (starting 7/3) rising from +2.451 after peaking at +2.7926 on 6/13 and have been up in the +2.0 to +3.0 degs range since 4/1 having previously peaked at +2.891 (4/13). Previously temps reached +2.302 degrees on 4/6, +1.732 degs (3/22), up from +0.462 since 2/28. Temps had reached as high as +1.076 on 2/19 and were previously steady at +0.848 since 2/7. Previously they started steadily rising 11/13 when they were around -1.5 degs C.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (10/12) (OISST runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today temps were steady at +1.088 after rising to +1.260 on 9/9. Weekly OISST were at +1.5 the past 2 weeks (10/4) after being up to +1.7 degs the week before and +1.6 degs 3 weeks in a row prior (starting 8/30) putting us in minimal strong El Nino status. Temps first time above +1.0 degs was on 8/7 after being up to +0.967 (8/1) up from +0.873 degs (7/25) after peaking at +0.985 (7/18). Previously temps were rising slightly at +0.882 (7/9) after being steady at +0.794 4-5 days and that after being steady at +0.895 (3 days near 6/25) after being in the +0.712 range the previous 9 days after previously rising to +0.975 on 6/9. We are now 31 days into a trend of being above the El Nino threshold (for the 2nd time). Temps reached the El Nino threshold for the first time on 5/17 at +0.507 then quickly fell over the next 10 days down to +0.378 (5/26). Previous peaks of +0.318 on 4/30 besting the previous peak at +0.199 on 4/21. Temps have been steadily increasing hitting 0.0 on 4/12 and were then more or less steady the previous 4 weeks. Temps previously rose to -0.402 on 2/23. Temps rose above the La Nina threshold (-0.5 degs) on 2/22 and had been rising slowly since 2/12 when they were about -1.0 degs C. They had been in the -1.0 deg range since at least Nov 2022.

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps bottomed out at at -1.25 degs in early Nov 2020, up to -0.01 degs in mid-June 2021 then fading to -1.05 degs in mid-Nov then rebuilding to -0.7 in mid Feb 2022 then fading to -1.1 degs in May before starting an upward climb peaking in mid-June at -0.65 degs and mid July at -0.55 degs. A steady decline set in after that falling to -1.00 degs in Aug and Sept rising to -0.8 degs mid Oct then falling to -1.0 in Nov but then slowly rising to -0.75 degs in Jan 2023 and up to -0.5 degs (above the La Nina threshold) on 2/12. Temps rose to +0.50 degs mid-May and were at +0.9 degs in mid-June, and +1.05 mid July reaching up to +1.30 degs early Aug peaking at +1.6 degs in Sept.
Forecast (10/12) - Temps are to fade to +1.45 degs into mid-Oct then then holding there into mid-Nov, then rising fast to +1.75 degs in Dec and Jan and solidly in strong El Nino territory before starting a slow fade thereafter. The PDF Corrected forecast suggests temps are forecast falling to +1.45 degs in mid-Oct, and down to +1.35 degs in mid-Nov then rising to +1.55 degs in Dec. According to this version of the model we are building into solid medium or low level strong El Nino.
IRI Consensus Plume: The Sept 20, 2023 Plume (all models) depicts temps are +1.671 degs today and it's the 6th month above the La Nina threshold. Temps to rise steadily from here forward up to +1.838 degrees in November then fading from there. The dynamic model suggest temps peaking at +2.073 in Nov while the statistic models show +1.410 degrees. The dynamic models are running much hotter than the statistic models. The CFS model is on the low end of the dynamic model range.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (10/12) the Daily Index was barely negative at -0.58 and has been negative for 53 days (starting 9/16). It was positive the previous 7 days, then negative the previous 29 days (7/14-8/11) with a peak down to -37.30 on 7/25.The SOI has effectively been negative since 7/12. It was positive the previous 21 days then was negative 11 days prior and positive 5 days previous then negative for 27 days previous ending 6/6 with a peak down to -29.32 on 5/31, -64.63 on 5/24 and -31.31 on 5/12. Previously readings were toggling between +10 and -10 for 13 days, but negative the 15 days previous to that, positive the 6 days prior to that after being mostly negative 25 days before that. It fell to -19.40 on 4/2. -17.44 on 2/22, the beginning of a change from which no return seemed likely. It was up to +21.85 on 2/10 and +55.74 on 12/22 and were in the +20 range the previous 22 days.
The 30 day average was rising some at -10.65 after falling to -15.70 on 9/23. It fell below the neutral point on 7/26. It rose above positive 7/3-7/25. It previously fell to -19.64 on 6/5 had been falling to -4.13 on 4/4 (lagging indicator driven by the Active Phase of the MJO) after falling to -0.52 on 3/22 previously falling to +4.18 on 11/27 and peaking at +21.57 (10/16) after supposedly peaking at +19.66 on 9/28. It was down to +6.89 on 7/29. It peaked at +20.34 (5/12) the highest in a year and beating last years high of +19.51 (1/14).
The 90 day average was falling some at -11.75 and turned negative the first time in years on 5/12. Recent max lows were -8.90 on 8/8 and -7.57 on 6/6. It previously peaked at +14.63 on 2/20, +15.61 on 10/25 and +12.92 on 8/11 and that after peaking at +18.40 (7/2) beating it's previous peak of +16.86 (5/31), the highest in a year. It previously peaked at +9.80 (9/21) after falling to it's lowest point in a year at +1.06 (6/9). The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 (2/23/21 - clearly indicative of La Nina then). This index is a lagging indicator but suggests that the Active Phase occurring now is starting to drive the index down, hopefully with no upward trend in sight for at least a year.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative ever since, driven by recent La Nina conditions. In May-July 2021 it was the most negative its been in the -1.80 to -2.04 range since Sept 2012 (-2.99) and then fell to -3.16 in Oct 2021 (the lowest since July 1933) then settled at -2.72 in Nov and Dec 2021. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.