Pacific Storm & Surf Forecast (Stormsurf)

Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt)/Buoy 239 (Lani): Seas were 3.5 ft @ 13.3 secs with swell 2.8 ft @ 13.8 secs from 225 degrees. Water temp 80.8 (Barbers Pt), 80.6 (Pearl Harbor 233), 81.0 (Lani 239).
Buoy 187 (Pauwela): Seas were 8.4 ft @ 13.3 secs with swell 5.2 ft @ 13.1 secs from 343 degrees. Water temp 79.7 degs
Buoy 106 (Waimea)/Buoy 202 (Hanalei): Seas were 8.4 ft @ 12.5 secs with swell 4.8 ft @ 12.9 secs from 343 degrees. Water temp 80.4 degs
Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 4.8 ft @ 14.7 secs with swell 2.8 ft @ 16.0 secs from 231 degrees. Wind northwest at 14-16 kts. Water temperature 68.5 degs, 61.2 (Harvest 071) 68.0 (Topanga 103), 65.5 (Long Beach 215), 66.9 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 67.8 (Del Mar 153), 68.7 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 6.8 ft @ 13.6 secs from 284 degrees. At E. Santa Barbara (46053) swell was 4.4 ft @ 16.3 secs from 272 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 2.8 ft @ 16.3 secs from 246 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 2.4 ft @ 15.9 secs from 233 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 4.4 ft @ 16.2 secs from 273 degrees. Water temperature was 65.1 degrees (Imperial Beach).
Buoy 029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 10.3 ft @ 14.3 secs with swell 8.2 ft @ 14.9 secs from 289 degrees. Wind southeast at 10-14 kts (46026) and southeast 11-13 kts (1801589). Water temp NA (Bodega Bay 46013), 58.1 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 60.1 (San Francisco 46026), 59.5 (SF Bar 142), 62.4 (1801589) and 61.5 (Monterey Bay 46042).

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Friday (10/20) in North and Central CA waves were 10-12 ft and super lined and consistent up but getting ruffled by southerly winds with some intermixed warble developing early. Protected breaks were 2-3 ft overhead on the sets and closed out and ruffled by south winds. At Santa Cruz surf was 2-3 ft overhead and lined up and clean with decent form but soft. In Southern California/Ventura waves were 1-2 ft overhead and lined up with good form and reasonably clean but with some sideshore lump developing. Central Orange County had sets at head high and lined up but pretty warbled from northwest winds early. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets at head high to 1 ft overhead and lined up but tattered and mushed from northwest wind. North San Diego had sets at 2-3 ft overhead at top spots and clean and lined up but buried in fog at many locations. Oahu's North Shore was up to 10 ft on the face and lined up and and solid but a bit warbled from northeast wind at most locations. The South Shore had sets at chest to shoulder high and lined up and clean but soft. The East Shore was getting wrap around energy from the northwest with waves 1 ft overhead and chopped from brisk northeast wind.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Friday (10/20) Swell #1 (ET Bolevan) was fading in Hawaii and California having evolved from Super Typhoon Bolevan that previously tracked north off Japan then turned extratropical while recurving over the lower dateline region on Sun-Mon (10/16) with up to 54 ft seas aimed east then faded while tracking northeast through the Gulf of Alaska on Tues (10/17). The first 'real' swell of the season has hit. A weak gale is forecast to fall southeast from the dateline into the Gulf Fri-Mon (10/23) producing 16-18 ft seas targeting mainly Hawaii. Nothing else obvious is forecast for the North Pacific for the next week. Small southern hemi swell is fading in Hawaii's south shores with another gale developing under New Zealand Wed (10/18) with seas to 30 ft. More swell likely is radiating northeast. And another is forecast on Sat-Sat (10/22) with seas 33 ft aimed northeast.

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

Overview
Jetstream
On Friday (10/20) the jet was consolidated ridging north over Kamchatka falling southeast over the Central Aleutians forming a developing trough over the Northwestern Gulf but weak with winds only 100-120 kts offering limited support for low pressure development. Over the next 72 hours that trough is to building while falling south into Sat (10/21) being fed by 130 kts winds and up to 140 kts on Sun (10/22) stationary in the Gulf 900 nmiles north of Hawaii offering good support for low pressure development then starting to pinch some on Mon (10/23). Beyond 72 hours the Gulf trough is to quickly pinch off with a generally weak but consolidated jetstream flow over the Pacific running from Japan east on the 40N latitude targeting but not reaching California into Thurs (10/26). By Fri (10/27) winds to start building in the jet to 120 kts from Japan east to the GUlf with a potential trough building off Japan and another in the Gulf. A bit of a break appears in the storm cycle for now but possibly recharging a week out.

Surface Analysis
On Friday (10/20) swell was still impacting Hawaii and California originating from an extratropical storm that developed from the remnants of what was Super Typhoon Bolevan over the Dateline (see Swell #1 - ET Bolevan below).

Over the next 72 hours a low pressure system started developing Thurs PM (10/19) over the North Dateline region producing northwest winds at 30 kts aimed southeast with seas building to 20 ft at 47N 177E aimed east. On Fri AM the low is weakened while falling southeast producing 25-30 kt northwest winds and seas 17 ft at 45N 178W aimed southeast. In the evening the low is to move to the far Western Gulf with 25 kt northwest winds targeting Hawaii well and seas 17 ft at 41N 173W aimed southeast. The low is to rebuild some Sat AM (10/21) 1200 nmiles northwest of Hawaii producing 30 kts north winds and seas 17 ft at 39N 172W. The low is to hold north of Hawaii in the evening producing 30 kt north winds and seas 16 ft seas at 39N 170W aimed southeast. The low is to stall there and circulate producing another fetch of north winds at 35 kts on Sun AM (10/22) producing 19 ft seas at 38N 172W aimed south. In the evening north winds to continue at 30 kts with 18 ft seas at 37N 168W aimed south. The low is to dissipate through the day Monday (10/23). Windswell possible for Hawaii.

Oahu: Rough data suggest windswell arriving on Mon (10/23) building to 4.5 ft @ 12-13 secs mid-day (5.5 ft). Swell building some through the day Tues (10/24) to 4.9 ft @ 11-12 secs later (5.5 ft). Swell fading some on Wed (10/25) from 4.3 ft @ 11-12 secs early (5.0 ft). Residuals on Thurs (10/26) fading from 4.1 ft @ 11 secs (4.5 ft). Swell Direction: 325 moving to 335 degrees

Swell #1 - Extra Tropical Storm Bolevan
On Sun AM (10/8) Tropical Storm Bolevan was developing 1,600 nmiles west of the Philippines with winds 45 kts tracking northwest. On Wed AM (10/11) Bolevan turned to Super Typhoon Status turning north and building positioned 1,200 nmiles west of Taiwan with winds 155 kts. On Thurs AM (10/12) Super Typhoon Bolevan turned northeast 800 nmiles south-southeast of Tokyo Japan with winds 155 kts. In the evening seas were 61.8 ft at 25N 147E. On the evening the Jason-3 satellite passed directly over the center and reported seas over a 15 reading average of 34.2 ft with one reading to 38.3 ft but with alot of data drop outs (given heavy rain).

By Fri AM (10/13) Bolevan was accelerating northeast 600 nmiles southeast of Tokyo with winds 135 kts. Seas were supposedly 69 ft at 28.75N 151E aimed northeast up the great circle paths to Hawaii and California and 2784 and 4236 nmiles respectively. In the evening seas were 61.5 ft at 32,75N 156,75E aimed northeast.

On Sat AM (10/14) Bolevan was 1,200 east of North Japan with winds 75 kts turning extratropical while accelerating more. Seas were 49 ft at 37.5N 163.5E. The Jason-3 satellite made a pass over the west quadrant of the storm at 13Z and report a 15 reading average at 36.7 ft with one reading to 42.5 ft where the model reported seas 38 ft. The model was doing a good job. In the evening Bolevan started making the transition into an extratropical storm with winds 55-65 kts from the west and seas 47.3 ft at 41.25N 171.25E aimed east building to 54.9 ft at 06Z at 42.5N 175E.

On Sun AM (10/15) ET Bolevan was on the dateline with winds 55-60 kts from the west and and seas 53.4 ft at 42.75N 179.25E aimed pure east. at 18Z seas were 51.3 ft at 42.5N 177.5W aimed east. The storm continued on a easterly heading in the evening with winds 50 kts moving east of the dateline with seas 49.1 ft at 42N 174.25W aimed east. And at 06Z seas were 48.5 ft at 42.5N 171W aimed east.

On Mon AM (10/16) ET Bolevan was starting to fall southeast over the Western Gulf with winds fading to 45 kts and seas 46.5 ft at 41.5N 166.75W aimed east. At 18Z seas were 42.3 ft at 40.75N 162.75W In the evening fetch is to be fading fast as the gale moves into Central Gulf with 35 kt west winds and seas fading from 38 ft at 41N 158.5W aimed southeast.

By Tues (10/17) the remnants of extratropical storm Bolevan are to be fading in the Central Gulf 1250 nmiles north-northeast of Hawaii with 35 kt west and northwest winds and seas 32 ft at 41.5N 150.75W aimed southeast, Bolevan to dissipate from there while tracking northeast bound for Central Canada. Something to monitor for Hawaii and California.

Oahu - Expect swell arrival on Mon (10/16) building at sunset with early arriving energy at 22-25 secs and swell size in the 2-3 ft range (5-6 ft). Swell building overnight. Swell building Tues (10/17) with period 22 secs early slowly dropping to 20 secs at sunset. Rough estimate late-morning is swell 5 ft @ 20-22 secs (10-11 ft Hawaiian) and exceedingly thick with alot of water moving around and swamping anything but deep water breaks later. Do not venture into the ocean if you are not a pro. Swell peaking just past sunset at 10 ft @ 18-20 secs (18-22 ft Hawaiian). Swell solid on Wed (10/18) with pure swell dropping from 8-10 ft @ 16 secs (12.8-16.0 ft). Swell Direction: Weakly 290-315 degrees but most energy coming from 319-330 degrees

North CA: Swell fading on Fri (10/20) from 7.5 ft @ 15 secs early (11.0 ft). Residuals on Sat (10/21) fading from 4.5 ft @ 12-13 secs (5.5 ft). Swell Direction: 290-296 degrees focused on 295 degrees

Southern CA: Swell holding Fri AM (10/20) at 4.0 ft @ 16-17 secs early (6.5 ft) at exposed breaks. More breaks to be rideable as period drops. Residuals fading Sat AM (10/21) from 2.5 ft @ 14-15 secs (3.5 ft). Swell Direction: 298-301 degrees

Sat AM (10/21) weak low pressure is to be developing well off of San Francisco with light southwest winds forecast at 5-10 kts for North CA early and west to northwest at 5 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon southwest winds are forecast at 5 kts for North CA and northwest winds 10 kts for Central CA. The low is to be moving closer to Cape Mendocino.
Sun AM (10/22) west winds are forecast at 5 kts for North CA early and northwest 10 kts for Central CA early. The low is to be moving on shore. In the afternoon high pressure arrives with north winds 10-15 kts for all of North and Central CA. Light rain for North CA down to Bodega Bay early lingering through the afternoon.
Mon AM (10/23) high pressure takes control with northwest winds 20-25 kts for all of North and Central CA early but light for Southern CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds build to 25 kts for all of North CA and 20 kts for Central CA.
Tues AM (10/24) the gradient starts to lift north some with northwest winds 25 kts for North CA and 15 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon north winds to be 20-25 kts for North CA and northwest 20 kts for Central CA.
Wed AM (10/25) northwest winds to be 15-20 kts for North CA and Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 15 kts for North and Central CA with a few pockets to 20 kts. Light rain for Cape Mendocino through daylight hours.
Thurs AM (10/26) northwest winds to be 20 kts for all of North and Central CA but 10 kts for Cape Mendocino early. In the afternoon northwest winds are to be 15-20 kts for all of North and Central CA. .
Fri AM (10/27) northwest winds to be 5-10 kts for North CA early and 15-20 kts for Central CA. No change in the afternoon.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at 0, 0, 0, and 0 inches respectively.

Temperatures for the Pacific Crest Trail and Tioga Pass Road intersection (8,700 ft): 50 degrees Friday cooling Sun night (10/22) to 35 degrees then warming on Tues (10/24) to 45 degrees before falling again hard to 20 degs Wed PM (1025). Temps warm and stabilize at 40 degrees thereafter.

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Fri (10/20) swell from a second gale that developed southeast of New Zealand was fading in Hawaii (see Another New Zealand Gale below). And swell from third New Zealand Gale was propagating northeast (see Third New Zealand Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours starting Fri PM (10/20) another small gale is to build under New Zealand with 40-45 kts southwest winds and seas building from 28 ft at 57S 167.25E aimed northeast. On Sat AM (10/21) the gale is to develop more while pushing southeast of New Zealand with 45 kt southwest winds and seas 31 ft at 54.25S 179.25E aimed northeast. In the evening the gale is to continue tracking east with 45 kt southwest winds and seas 33 ft at 54S 171.25W aimed northeast. On Sun AM (10/22) fetch is to fade from 35-40 kts from the southwest with seas 30 ft at 51.5S 159.75W aimed northeast. The gale to dissipate from there. Something to monitor.

Another New Zealand Gale
On Tuesday PM (10/10) another gale developed south of New Zealand producing 40-45 kt west winds with seas 27 ft at 55S 165.5E aimed northeast. On Wed AM (10/11) the gale was track east producing 40-45 kt southwest winds over a tiny area southeast of New Zealand with seas 29 ft at 56.75S 175E aimed east-northeast. In the evening southwest winds were 35-40 kts with seas 29 ft at 54S 180W aimed northeast. The gale held while easing east on Thurs AM (10/12) with 35-40 kt southwest winds and seas 29 ft at 61.5S 175W aimed northeast. The gale faded in the evening.

Oahu South Shore: Swell fading Fri (10/20) from 1.8 ft @ 14-15 secs early (2.5 ft). Residuals on Sat (10/21) fading from 1.4 ft @ 13 secs (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 192 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Sat (10/21) building to 1.6 ft @ 16-17 secs later (2.5 ft). Swell continues on Sun (10/22) at 1.9 ft @ 15-16 secs mid-day (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fading on Mon (10/23) from 1.8 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.5 ft). no meaningful swell after that. Swell Direction: 210 degrees

Third New Zealand Gale
A gale developed under New Zealand on Wed AM (10/18) producing 35-40 kts southwest winds and seas 32 ft at 56.75S 168.25E. In the evening fetch was fading from 30-35 kts aimed northeast with seas 26 ft at 53.25S 176.5W. Fetch and seas faded from there. Some small swell to radiate northeast.

Oahu South Shore: Small swell is to arrive starting Wed (10/25) at 1.3 ft @ 17-18 secs later (2.0 ft). Swell building on Thurs (10/26) 1.7 ft @ 16 secs later (2.5 ft). Swell continues on Fri (10/27) at 1.6 ft @ 15 secs early (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell fading out after that. Swell Direction: 195 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Sat (10/28) building to 1.9 ft @ 17-18 secs later (3.0 ft). Swell to continue on Sun (10/29) at 2.0 ft @ 16 secs early (3.0 ft). Swell fading on Mon (10/30) from 1.8 ft @ 15 secs (2.5 ft). Swell fading Tues (10/31) from 1.6 ft @ 14 secs early (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 205 degrees

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

El Nino Steadily Building
Kelvin Waves #4, #5 and #6 Erupting - NINO3.4 SSTs reflect El Nino
1 Kelvin Wave traversed the Pacific in Dec '22 with a 2nd in Jan-Feb and a 3rd and 4th in March-April, a 5th in May and a 6th in August. But after the last Active MJO in mid-to-late May (resulting in Kevin Wave #5), the MJO stalled. Finally the Active Phase restarted in later July Producing Kelvin Wave #6 which is erupting off Ecuador now. Sea Surface Temperatures in the east are warm and holding, and slightly expanding. And another Active Phase of the MJO is developing now (mid-Oct) likely starting to produce Kelvin Wave #7 which is pushing east. All these Active MJO/Kevin Wave pairs are backfilling warm water off Ecuador and helping push the atmosphere towards El Nino. And El Nino is finally starting to be evident in the atmosphere as evidenced by the SOI, OLR. ocean current, and wind anomalies.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023.

Rationale: A 3 year La Nina started fading in Jan 2023 and was gone by April. 6 Active MJO's produced 6 Kelvin Waves over early to mid 2023 with Kelvin Wave #7 in August building over the West Pacific and the 4th, 5th and 6th backed up off Ecuador now (10/20/23). The CFS model is predicting steady west anomalies from here forward and the leading edge of the low pressure bias moving over California now filling the Pacific. We are now under an El Nino status. We are moving into a period of enhanced storm production (starting late Sept 2023) and beyond, getting intense come late Fall and early Winter. This should result in an above normal level of swells, with swells being longer than normal duration from here forward as El Nino gets a stronger footprint on the atmosphere. The net result is a well above normal number of swells with above normal size and duration (i.e 15 significant class swells perhaps). Last year there were 0 and year before 5 or less.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (10/19) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the East equatorial Pacific and moderate east over the Central Pacific and moderate west over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the East equatorial Pacific and neutral over the Central Pacific and moderate to strong west over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (10/20) Strong west anomalies were filling the KWGA today. The forecast indicates west anomalies are to hold strong over the KWGA through 11/2 but persisting at moderate status through the end of the model run on 11/5. This is a very positive forecast.

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (10/19) A modest Inactive MJO was over the KWGA. The statistic model indicates the Inactive MJO (cloud free air) is to fade some some on day 5 fading and gone on day 10 hold on day 15. The dynamic model depicts the Inactive Phase holding at weak to modest strength through day 5 then collapsing to neutral on day 10 returning at moderate strength on day 15.
Phase Diagrams - 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (10/20) The statistical model depicts the Active signal was modest over Africa. The forecast indicates it is to move to the Indian Ocean 15 days out and very weak. The dynamic model indicates the Active signal meandering over Africa at weak status for the next 2 weeks unchanged.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (10/20) A neutral MJO pattern was indicated over the KWGA today. The forecast has a very weak Inactive Phase (dry air) tracking east and over the KWGA 10/25-11/14 then moving east of the KWGA while a weak Active (wet air) pattern sets up over the KWGA 11/19 through the end of the model run on 11/29. But the extreme weakness of this suggest an El Nino pattern is in play now.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (10/19) Today a neutral MJO was over the KWGA but with strong west anomalies filling the KWGA associated with a positive Equatorial Rossby Wave building over the KWGA. The forecast has the Rossby Wave fading out on 10/26 with west anomalies continuing at strong status till then before fading to moderate strength through the end of the model run on 11/16. Of note: Moderate east anomalies started building over the Indian Ocean on 9/2 and are now at strong status today and forecast holding through the end of the model run. That coupled with building west anomalies in the West Pacific suggest massively falling air occurring somewhere near 120E (Maritime Continent). This is likely the falling branch of the Walker Circulation. The Indian Ocean Dipole is currently strong positive and building (the falling branch of the Walker Circulation). We're moving into the start of a real El Nino pattern according to this model.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (10/17) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today a Active Phase was fading over the KWGA with weak to modest west anomalies in control. A weak Inactive Phase is moving over the West KWGA but is to last only into 11/3. Moderate to strong west anomalies are in control and are to hold. The Active Phase is to then build 11/13-12/8 with strong west anomalies filling the KWGA. A solid Inactive Phase develops 11/22 in the far west KWGA filling it 12/15 and holding through the end of the model run on 1/17/24 but with west anomalies holding at modest to moderate to strong status into 12/25 then fading to modest strength while easing east to 150W. Also note that east anomalies started building at 70E (West Indian Ocean) on 9/7 and are forecast building through 12/7 at strong status, then moderating some and holding through the end of the model run while pushing hard east on 12/25 almost filling the KWGA at the end of the model run. This strong east and west anomaly pattern looks very much like falling air centered over the Maritime Continent (120E) and the the downward branch of the Walker Circulation/+IOD. Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) suggests cloud activity took over the KWGA weakly on 6/24 and started building in earnest June 25 and then more solid starting Sept 15 and is continuing to build today. It is forecast building strongly from here forward but especially starting 10/12. Conversely clear skies started building over the Maritime Continent in mid-May and have continued solidifying today and are forecast building from here forward especially starting 10/10. This also suggest a fall and rising air pattern associated with the change in the Walker Circulation. The low pass filter indicates a broad low pressure bias is established over the KWGA centered at 180W with 3 contour lines (starting 7/14). A 4th contour line is to develop Nov 2. A 5th contour line is scheduled to develop on 12/15. The high pressure bias has dissolved and is no longer in the Pacific but started to build over the Maritime Continent on 10/2. A second high pressure contour is to develop on 12/2. 7/18 was the start of a major positive change in the development of El Nino with advent of the Active Phase of the MJO and west anomalies and that momentum is growing stronger each passing day. It appears a strong El Nino is finally starting to develop in a classical sense.

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (10/20) Today in the far West Pacific the leading edge of the 30 deg isotherm was easing east to 168W (previously 169W). The 29 degree isotherm was easing east to 157W (previously 162W). The 28 deg isotherm line was backtracking to 146W (previously 140W) and looks like east winds that had been hitting it are abating. The 24 degree isotherm extended the whole way across the Pacific and was steady at 39m (25m 4 days earlier and at one point down to 65m) in the far East. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies at +2 deg C started in the far West Pacific at 172E associated with newly developing Kelvin Wave #7 centered at 172W pushing east in a continuous stream feeding into Kelvin Wave #6 and other previous Kelvin Waves that have formed a broad pocket of +3-5 degs anomalies over the East Pacific starting at 139W (152W on 9/11). +4-5 degree anomalies were tracking east now at 124W (previously 138W). The warm pool in the east (originating from Kelvin Waves #6, 5, 4...) is discharging to the surface while being backfilled by more warm water/Kelvin Wave #7. There's about 3 months of warm water backed up off the Ecuadorian Coast (previously 2 months) today with a stream of warm water backfilling into it. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 10/15 indicates a large very warm stream of +1-2 degs anomalies extending west to east starting at 175E and over a large section of the subsurface equatorial Pacific (Kelvin Wave #7) and building while tracking east with 2 deg anomalies from 130W and points east of there and +4-5 degs anomalies from 121W and points east of there originating from Kelvin Waves #6, #5 and #4 erupting into Ecuador. A steady stream of +1-2 degree anomalies were falling off the Maritime Continent merging with the preexisting warm stream. In other words, this image suggests a steady flow of warm water flowing east from the Maritime Continent suggesting Kelvin Wave #8 is developing. No cool anomalies were indicated. El Nino is developing. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (10/15) Sea heights were positive across the equatorial Pacific starting at 158E at +0-5 cms extending east into Ecuador. +5 cm anomalies were in the east from 175E east into Ecuador with 2 pockets of +10 cm anomalies imbedded to the south. Positive anomalies extending north into Central America up to the southern tip of Baja and south to North Peru. This means no cool water was at depth. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (10/15) warm water is building at +0.5 degs from 150E and points east of there. +1.00-1.50 degs were in a building pocket between 175W to 150W and fading in the east limited to 110W to 95W over the East Pacific and shrinking in coverage while migrating east. A pocket of near neutral to slightly negative anomalies was between 140-150E and shrinking fast. The warm water flow had backed off some with nothing to force more warm water east (i.e. no Active MJOs occurring) in July. But a new Kelvin Wave is now in flight. Otherwise there's been no change since mid March, a steady flow of warm water pushing east.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (10/19) The latest images depict a strong warm signal along the coasts of Peru and Ecuador now out to 125W (previously 115W) and building in strength and coverage. There are sign that a moderate warm signal is building further west on the equator out to 170W (previously 155W). The warm pool is now growing westward after previously losing coverage. Lesser heat extended west to the dateline and beyond. Heat also extends north up to Central Baja and south down into Patagonia. There is a very clear El Nino signal with the classic El Nino triangle in-place and rebuilding towards as strong as it was months past, but over a larger area. The last remnants of La Nina are gone on the equator but remnants are still evident in a fading cool pool from a point well off Southern Baja from 130W west to a point south of Hawaii at 175W. The Cool Pool is slowly collapsing. La Nina is all but gone now atmospherically over the Pacific.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (10/19): A small thin stream of pockets of warm anomalies were aligned on the equator from the Galapagos west to the dateline. Otherwise mostly neutral temps prevailed. Perhaps some energy is being added to the warm surface pool. A warming trend had been well entrenched over the East Pacific since Nov 1 2022 with no cooling waters over the equatorial East Pacific since 12/15.
Hi-res Overview: (10/19) Warmer than normal waters are filling the East Pacific off Chile, Peru, Ecuador and north up to Mexico with strong warming in many pockets from Ecuador out to 110W and building. And the classic El Nino tongue of more intense warming is building considerably over the equator west to the dateline and beyond. Everything is now looking like El Nino. And the La NIna enhanced cool pool off California is fading and drifting west, while weakening.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (10/20) (The official OISST temp record runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were stabilizing if not building some at +1.909 after fading down to +1.527 (10/6) (previously +2.10 - 9/17) and have been falling since 8/31 when they were up to +3.073 after rising to +3.164 (8/18) after being up to +2.925 on 8/10 after rising at +3.074 degs (8/7) after being up to +3.391 (on 7/20) and had been rising from +2.906 (starting 7/3) rising from +2.451 after peaking at +2.7926 on 6/13 and have been up in the +2.0 to +3.0 degs range since 4/1 having previously peaked at +2.891 (4/13). Previously temps reached +2.302 degrees on 4/6, +1.732 degs (3/22), up from +0.462 since 2/28. Temps had reached as high as +1.076 on 2/19 and were previously steady at +0.848 since 2/7. Previously they started steadily rising 11/13 when they were around -1.5 degs C.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (10/20) (OISST runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today temps were rising at +1.300 after falling down to +1.149 (10/11). . Weekly OISST were at +1.5 the past 3 weeks (through 10/11) after being up to +1.7 degs the week before and +1.6 degs 3 weeks in a row prior (starting 8/30) putting us in minimal strong El Nino status. Temps first time above +1.0 degs was on 8/7 after being up to +0.967 (8/1) up from +0.873 degs (7/25) after peaking at +0.985 (7/18). Previously temps were rising slightly at +0.882 (7/9) after being steady at +0.794 4-5 days and that after being steady at +0.895 (3 days near 6/25) after being in the +0.712 range the previous 9 days after previously rising to +0.975 on 6/9. We are now 31 days into a trend of being above the El Nino threshold (for the 2nd time). Temps reached the El Nino threshold for the first time on 5/17 at +0.507 then quickly fell over the next 10 days down to +0.378 (5/26). Previous peaks of +0.318 on 4/30 besting the previous peak at +0.199 on 4/21. Temps have been steadily increasing hitting 0.0 on 4/12 and were then more or less steady the previous 4 weeks. Temps previously rose to -0.402 on 2/23. Temps rose above the La Nina threshold (-0.5 degs) on 2/22 and had been rising slowly since 2/12 when they were about -1.0 degs C. They had been in the -1.0 deg range since at least Nov 2022.

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps bottomed out at at -1.25 degs in early Nov 2020, up to -0.01 degs in mid-June 2021 then fading to -1.05 degs in mid-Nov then rebuilding to -0.7 in mid Feb 2022 then fading to -1.1 degs in May before starting an upward climb peaking in mid-June at -0.65 degs and mid July at -0.55 degs. A steady decline set in after that falling to -1.00 degs in Aug and Sept rising to -0.8 degs mid Oct then falling to -1.0 in Nov but then slowly rising to -0.75 degs in Jan 2023 and up to -0.5 degs (above the La Nina threshold) on 2/12. Temps rose to +0.50 degs mid-May and were at +0.9 degs in mid-June, and +1.05 mid July reaching up to +1.30 degs early Aug peaking at +1.6 degs in Sept.
Forecast (10/20) - Temps are to hold at +1.5 degs into mid-Nov, then rising fast to +1.95 degs in Dec and Jan and solidly in strong El Nino territory before starting a slow fade thereafter. The PDF Corrected forecast suggests temps are forecast falling to +1.45 degs in mid-Nov then rising to +1.70 degs in Dec and Jan. According to this version of the model we are building into a mid to upper level strong El Nino.
IRI Consensus Plume: The October 19, 2023 Plume (all models) depicts temps are +1.777 degs today and it's the 7th month above the La Nina threshold. Temps to rise steadily from here forward up to +1.836 degrees in November then fading from there. The dynamic model suggest temps peaking at +2.004 in Nov and +1.979 in Dec while the statistic models show +1.836 and +1.769 degrees respectively. The dynamic models are running a bit hotter than the statistic models. The CFS model is on the low end of the dynamic model range with 7 of 17 models above +2.0 degrees.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (10/19) the Daily Index was negative at -15.09 and has been negative for 61 days (starting 9/16). It was positive the previous 7 days, then negative the previous 29 days (7/14-8/11) with a peak down to -37.30 on 7/25.The SOI has effectively been negative since 7/12. It was positive the previous 21 days then was negative 11 days prior and positive 5 days previous then negative for 27 days previous ending 6/6 with a peak down to -29.32 on 5/31, -64.63 on 5/24 and -31.31 on 5/12. Previously readings were toggling between +10 and -10 for 13 days, but negative the 15 days previous to that, positive the 6 days prior to that after being mostly negative 25 days before that. It fell to -19.40 on 4/2. -17.44 on 2/22, the beginning of a change from which no return seemed likely. It was up to +21.85 on 2/10 and +55.74 on 12/22 and were in the +20 range the previous 22 days.
The 30 day average was rising some at -8.70 after falling to -15.70 on 9/23. It fell below the neutral point on 7/26. It rose above positive 7/3-7/25. It previously fell to -19.64 on 6/5 had been falling to -4.13 on 4/4 (lagging indicator driven by the Active Phase of the MJO) after falling to -0.52 on 3/22 previously falling to +4.18 on 11/27 and peaking at +21.57 (10/16) after supposedly peaking at +19.66 on 9/28. It was down to +6.89 on 7/29. It peaked at +20.34 (5/12) the highest in a year and beating last years high of +19.51 (1/14).
The 90 day average was rising some at -11.56 and turned negative the first time in years on 5/12. Recent max lows were -11.85 on 10/15, -8.90 on 8/8 and -7.57 on 6/6. It previously peaked at +14.63 on 2/20, +15.61 on 10/25 and +12.92 on 8/11 and that after peaking at +18.40 (7/2) beating it's previous peak of +16.86 (5/31), the highest in a year. It previously peaked at +9.80 (9/21) after falling to it's lowest point in a year at +1.06 (6/9). The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 (2/23/21 - clearly indicative of La Nina then). This index is a lagging indicator but suggests that the Active Phase occurring now is starting to drive the index down, hopefully with no upward trend in sight for at least a year.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative ever since, driven by recent La Nina conditions. In May-July 2021 it was the most negative its been in the -1.80 to -2.04 range since Sept 2012 (-2.99) and then fell to -3.16 in Oct 2021 (the lowest since July 1933) then settled at -2.72 in Nov and Dec 2021. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.