Pacific Storm & Surf Forecast (Stormsurf)

Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt)/Buoy 239 (Lani): Seas were 3.5 ft @ 6.2 secs with swell 2.5 ft @ 6.2 secs from 164 degrees. Water temp 80.6 (Barbers Pt), 80.4 (Pearl Harbor 233), 80.4 (Lani 239).
Buoy 187 (Pauwela): Seas were 9.6 ft @ 8.3 secs with swell 7.7 ft @ 8.2 secs from 52 degrees. Water temp 79.5 degs
Buoy 106 (Waimea)/Buoy 202 (Hanalei): Seas were 7.1 ft @ 9.1 secs with swell 5.4 ft @ 9.6 secs from 338 degrees. Water temp 79.5 degs
Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 5.0 ft @ 10.8 secs with swell 2.8 ft @ 10.5 secs from 244 degrees. Wind northwest at 8-12 kts. Water temperature 65.7 degs, 59.5 (Harvest 071), 63.9 (Topanga 103), 64.8 (Long Beach 215), 65.3 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 61.9 (Del Mar 153), 64.6 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 5.0 ft @ 15.1 secs from 283 degrees. At E. Santa Barbara (46053) swell was 3.1 ft @ 10.6 secs from 227 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.7 ft @ 10.5 secs from 248 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.6 ft @ 10.6 secs from 260 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 2.1 ft @ 11.2 secs from 269 degrees. Water temperature was 62.4 degrees (Imperial Beach).
Buoy 029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 10.7 ft @ 11.1 secs with swell 7.8 ft @ 11.7 secs from 286 degrees. Wind northwest at 12-14 kts (46026) and northwest 13-14 kts (1801589). Water temp NA (Bodega Bay 46013), 61.2 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 57.9 (San Francisco 46026), 57.0 (SF Bar 142), 60.8 (1801589) and 57.9 (Monterey Bay 46042).

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Tuesday (11/7) in North and Central CA waves were estimated at 3-4 ft overhead and warbled and mushed but with clean surface conditions. Protected breaks were 2-3 ft overhead and clean but with some underlying warble and closed out. At Santa Cruz surf was 1-2 ft overhead and lined up and clean but soft. In Southern California/Ventura waves were waist to chest high and lined up and clean with no wind early but soft and somewhat warbled. Central Orange County had sets at waist high plus and lined up and mushed and a bit warbled from southerly wind. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets at waist high and soft and weak but clean. North San Diego had sets at waist to maybe chest high and lined up and clean but soft. Oahu's North Shore had waves at chest to shoulder high and clean but uneven with decent form. The South Shore had sets at up to waist high and somewhat lined up and clean but soft. The East Shore was getting tradewind generated windswell at 1 ft overhead and chopped from strong east trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Tuesday (11/7) the second in a series of small swells was hitting California with sideband residual still hitting Hawaii. It was produced by a gale that developed in the Central Gulf Sat-Sun (11/5) producing 23-25 ft seas aimed somewhat at Hawaii but mainly at the US West Coast. Another gale is forecast for the Northern Gulf on Tues-Thurs (11/9) producing 23-25 ft seas aimed southeast with yet another forming over the North Dateline region tracking east into the Gulf Thurs-Sat (11/11) with 26-34 ft seas aimed southeast. And secondary fetch is to develop Sun (11/12) producing 23 ft seas falling southeast. And possibly more forecast behind that. This looks like a real Fall pattern.

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

Overview
Jetstream
On Tuesday (11/7) the jet was ridging hard north in the west over the Kuril Islands reaching up to the West Bering Sea then falling hard southeast over the Central Aleutians with winds 200 kts poised to start digging out a trough over the Northwestern Gulf. Otherwise remnants of another trough were pushing inland over Central California. Over the next 72 hours the Northwestern Gulf trough is to build and be well formed on Wed AM (11/8) being fed by 160 kts winds tracking east through the Gulf of Alaska offering decent support for gale development into Thurs (11/9). A persistent flow of 150+ kts winds to continue over the Northern Gulf into Fri (11/10) continuing support for gale development. Beyond 72 hours that trough is to start deepening on Sun (11/12) over the Northern Gulf being fed by 150 kts winds while falling southeast offering good support for gale development then starting to pinch off off California on Mon (11/13). But yet another trough to form from it's remnants over the Eastern Gulf on Tues (11/14) offering more support for gale development. Back to the west the jet is to be consolidated pushing east off Japan with 150 kts winds then lifting hard north forming a massive ridge pushing up into the North Bering Sea with it's apex near the dateline then falling hard south off the US West Coast making the aforementioned trough with it's apex off Central CA. Certainly an energetic pattern is setting up.

Surface Analysis
On Tuesday (11/7) swell from the second of two gales previously in the Gulf of Alaska was fading in Hawaii and hitting California (see Second Gulf Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours stating Tues AM (11/7) a small gale is forecast developing in the Northern Gulf with 35-40 kts northwest winds and seas 20 ft over a small area at 50.5N 168.25W aimed southeast. Fetch building in coverage at 30-35 kts in the evening tracking southeast with seas 23 ft at 50.25N 162.75W aimed southeast. On Wed AM (11/8) the gale is to fall southeast with 30-35 kts northwest winds over a solid area and seas building from 19-22 ft at 48.5N 157 aimed southeast. In the evening fetch is to be holding at 35 kts with seas 24 ft at 48N 148W aimed mostly east. The gale to be fading fast Thurs AM (11/9) with seas from previous fetch at 23 ft at 48N 143W aimed east. Swell likely from Central and North CA and points north of there late in the workweek and into the weekend. Something to monitor.

Thurs AM (11/9) another gale is to develop over the North Dateline region with 35-45 kt west winds and seas building from 23 ft at 48.5N 180W aimed east. Fetch is to fall southeast in the evening as the gale moves to the Northwestern Gulf with 45 kt west winds and seas 32 ft over a small area at 49.5N 172.25W aimed east. On Fri AM (11/10) the gael is to be in the Central Gulf with 35-40 kt northwest winds and 26-28 ft seas at 47.5N 163.25W aimed east. In the evening a broad swath of 30-35 kts northwest winds are to be filling the Gulf with 24 ft seas at 48.5N 147.75W aimed southeast. Fetch holding Sat AM (11/11) at 30-35 kts with seas 23 ft at 47N 150W aimed southeast. Fetch fading in the evening from 30-35 kts with seas fading from 21 ft at 50N 155W aimed southeast. Residuals on Sun AM (11/12) with 30-35 kt northwest winds and seas 21 ft fading at 45N 150W aimed southeast. Something to monitor but possibly a long run of swell.

Second Gulf Gale
Starting Sat AM (11/4) a new gale is to be building over the Central Gulf with northwest winds 35 kts over a small area with seas building from 20 ft at 43N 159W aimed southeast. Fetch to fall southeast in the evening at 35+ kts with seas 25 ft at 40.75N 153W aimed southeast. On Sun AM (11/5) northwest winds to be 30-35 kts over a fading area in the Eastern Gulf with seas 22 ft at 38N 146.5W aimed southeast. In the evening fetch is to collapse with 19 ft seas at 40N 136W aimed southeast.

Oahu: Swell fading on Tues (11/7) from 2.3 ft 2 10-11 secs early (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 340 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Tues AM (11/7) peaking at 7.5 ft @ 13 secs (9.5 ft) early. Swell fading on Wed (11/8) from 7.0 ft @ 11 secs (7.5 ft). Dribbles on Thurs (11/9) fading from 4.0 ft @ 10 secs (4.0 ft). Swell Direction: 285 moving to 303 degrees

Wed AM (11/8) northwest winds build at 15-20 kts for North CA early and mostly 15 kts nearshore for Central CA but 20 kts just off the coast. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 15 kts for North CA and 15+ kts for Central CA. No rain forecast.
Thurs AM (11/9) northwest winds are forecast at 10 kts for Cape Mendocino down to Santa Cruz and northwest 15 kts south of there early. In the afternoon a new front passes over Cape Mendocino with south winds 15-20 kts and north winds 10 kts for the rest of North CA and northwest 15 kts for Central CA. Rain for Cape Mendocino in the late afternoon and overnight.
Fri AM (11/10) high pressure is to be just offshore with northwest winds 10 kts for North CA early and 15-20 kts south of Monterey Bay. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 15-20 kts for North and Central CA. Light rain very early for Cape Mendocino.
Sat AM (11/11) northwest winds to be 15-20 kts for North CA early and 10 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds are forecast at 15 kts for North CA and 10 kts for Central CA. No precip forecast.
Sun AM (11/12) south winds to be 5 kts for Cape Mendocino and northwest 10 kts for the rest of North CA early and 10 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds are forecast at 5-10 kts for all of North and Central CA.
Mon AM (11/13) light winds are forecast early for all of North and Central CA. Weak low pressure builds off North CA in the afternoon with south winds 10 kts for all of North and Central CA.
Tues AM (11/14) a front and south winds develop at 25 kts early for all of North and Central CA. South winds continue at 15+ kts in the afternoon for all of North and Central CA. Rain developing early for all of North and Central CA near the coast with a full winter storm moving in late afternoon.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at 60, 60, 57, and 80 inches respectively.

Temperatures for the Pacific Crest Trail and Tioga Pass Road intersection (8,700 ft): 25 degrees Tues evening (11/7) rising to 30 degrees through Fri (11/10) rising to 40-45 degrees through Tues (11/14). Then temps fall to 25-30 degrees beyond. Fall is setting up.

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Overview
Surface Analysis
No swell of interest coming from the Southern Hemisphere was hitting Hawaii or California. Summer is over.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

Beyond 72 hours yet another gale is forecast developing in the Eastern Gulf on Tues AM (11/14) producing northwest winds at 35-40 kts with seas 26 ft at 47.5N 143.5W aimed hard south. In the evening more of the same is forecast with the gale falling hard south and seas 30 ft at 37N 138W aimed southeast. Something to monitor.

El Nino Steadily Building
Kelvin Waves #4, #5 and #6 Erupting - NINO3.4 SSTs reflect El Nino
1 Kelvin Wave traversed the Pacific in Dec '22 with a 2nd in Jan-Feb and a 3rd and 4th in March-April, a 5th in May and a 6th in August. But after the last Active MJO in mid-to-late May (resulting in Kevin Wave #5), the MJO stalled. Finally the Active Phase restarted in later July Producing Kelvin Wave #6 which is erupting off Ecuador now. Sea Surface Temperatures in the east are warm and holding, and slightly expanding. And another Active Phase of the MJO is developing now (mid-Oct) likely starting to produce Kelvin Wave #7 which is pushing east. All these Active MJO/Kevin Wave pairs are backfilling warm water off Ecuador and helping push the atmosphere towards El Nino. And El Nino is finally starting to be evident in the atmosphere as evidenced by the SOI, OLR. ocean current, and wind anomalies.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023.

Rationale: A 3 year La Nina started fading in Jan 2023 and was gone by April. 6 Active MJO's produced 6 Kelvin Waves over early to mid 2023 with Kelvin Wave #7 in August building over the West Pacific and the 4th, 5th and 6th backed up off Ecuador now (10/20/23). The CFS model is predicting steady west anomalies from here forward and the leading edge of the low pressure bias moving over California now filling the Pacific. We are now under an El Nino status. We are moving into a period of enhanced storm production (starting late Sept 2023) and beyond, getting intense come late Fall and early Winter. This should result in an above normal level of swells, with swells being longer than normal duration from here forward as El Nino gets a stronger footprint on the atmosphere. The net result is a well above normal number of swells with above normal size and duration (i.e 15 significant class swells perhaps). Last year there were 0 and year before 5 or less.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (11/2) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the East equatorial Pacific and moderate east over the Central Pacific and weak west over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the East equatorial Pacific and weak east over the Central Pacific and modest west over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (11/7) Strong west anomalies were filling the KWGA today. The forecast indicates west anomalies are to build to very strong status over the core of the KWGA starting 11/10-11/15 and holding at strong status till 11/20, then fading with east anomalies in the West Pacific a few days from 11/18 till the end of the model run on 11/23.

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (11/6) A neutral MJO was over the KWGA today. The statistic model indicates no change on day 5 of the model run, then a weak Inactive (cloud free skies) develop on day 10 and building to near strong status on day 15 of the model run. The dynamic model depicts the same thing but with a moderate active MJO signal developing on days 10 and 15 of the model run. We think dry air over the far West Pacific is a result of the downward falling branch of the Walker Circulation impacting the surface at 120E producing dry west anomalies pushing towards the dateline on the equator pickup up moisture along the way. No change is likely anytime soon.
Phase Diagrams - 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (11/7) The statistical model depicts the Active signal was very weak over the West Indian Ocean. The forecast indicates it is to move to the Maritime Continent 15 days out and very weak. The dynamic model indicates the Active signal racing east and over the East Pacific at modest status 2 weeks out.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (11/7) A strong Active MJO pattern (wet air) was indicated over the West KWGA today. The forecast has a Active Phase (wet air) tracking east over the KWGA then moving east of the KWGA on 11/27. A moderate Inactive signal (dry air) is to push through the KWGA 11/27-12/12. But another moderate Active (wet air) pattern sets up over the KWGA 1the last day of the model run on 12/17. All this has low odds of occurring.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (11/6) Today the Inactive Phase of the MJO was moving mostly east of the KWGA with moderate to strong west anomalies in control over the KWGA. The forecast has west anomalies building to strong status 11/7-11/15. West anomalies are to fade at weak status through the end of the model run with a weak Active Phase suggested over the East Pacific 11/12-11/24 then turning Inactive over the same area 11/27 through the end of the model run. Of note: Moderate east anomalies started building over the Indian Ocean on 9/2 and are now at strong status today and forecast holding through 11/24 then moderating through the end of the model run. That coupled with strong west anomalies in the West Pacific suggest massively falling air occurring near 120E (Maritime Continent), likely the downward branch of the Walker Circulation. The Indian Ocean Dipole is currently strong positive and building (the falling branch of the Walker Circulation). We're into a real El Nino pattern according to this model.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (11/7) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today a weak Inactive Phase was beginning it's peak over the KWGA but with weak to modest west anomalies in control. The weak Inactive Phase is to hold over the KWGA through 11/18 with weak to moderate west anomalies holding. The Active Phase is to build 11/20-12/27 with moderate to strong west anomalies during the entire period filling the KWGA. A solid Inactive Phase develops 12/19 in the far west KWGA then filling it through 1/23/24 with west anomalies slowly fading to moderate to modest status Jan 15 then holding at modest strength through the end of the model run 2/4/24 while moving east centered at 170W. Also note that east anomalies started building at 70E (West Indian Ocean) on 9/7 and started peaking 10/15 forecast holding into 12/15, then moderating while pushing hard east on 12/17 into the West KWGA and holding through the end of the model run. This strong east and west anomaly pattern looks very much like falling air centered over the Maritime Continent (120E) associated with the downward branch of the Walker Circulation/+IOD. Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) suggests cloud activity took over the KWGA weakly on 6/24 and started building in earnest then more solid starting Sept 15, It started building strongly on 10/16 and is continuing to build today. It is forecast building strongly from here forward while easing east to 140W at the end of the model run. Conversely clear skies started building over the Maritime Continent in mid-May and have continued solidifying today and are forecast building to Jan 2, then fading while moving east to 145E at the end of the model run. This also suggests a rising air pattern associated with the upward branch of the Walker Circulation developing today on the dateline nd moving east to 140W in January. The low pass filter indicates a broad low pressure bias is established over the KWGA centered at 175W with a 4th contour lines (starting 11/5). A 5th contour line is forecast starting 12/27. The high pressure bias has dissolved and is no longer in the Pacific but started to build over the Maritime Continent on 10/2. A second high pressure contour is forecast starting 12/19 for 2 weeks. 7/18 was the start of a major positive change in the development of El Nino with advent of the Active Phase of the MJO and west anomalies and that momentum is growing stronger each passing day. It appears a strong El Nino is finally starting to develop in a classical sense and is to move east over the next 3 months.

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (11/7) Today in the far West Pacific the leading edge of the 30 deg isotherm was easing east at 167W (previously 169W). The 29 degree isotherm was easing east to 158W (previously 157W). The 28 deg isotherm line was steady at 145W and looks like east winds are hitting it. The 24 degree isotherm extended the whole way across the Pacific and was getting deeper at 40m (25m earlier but at one point down to 65m) in the far East. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies at +2 deg C started in the far West Pacific at 170E associated with newly developing Kelvin Wave #7 with a building core of up to +3 degs anomalies centered at 155W pushing east in a continuous stream (at +3 degs) feeding into Kelvin Wave #6 and other previous Kelvin Waves that have formed a broad pocket of +4-5 degs anomalies over the East Pacific starting from 136W (previously 138W). The warm pool in the east (originating from Kelvin Waves #6, 5, 4...) is discharging to the surface while being backfilled by more warm water/Kelvin Wave #7 and growing in coverage some. There's about 3 months of warm water backed up off the Ecuadorian Coast (previously 2 months) today with a stream of warm water backfilling into it. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 10/30 indicates a large very warm stream of +1-2 degs anomalies extending west to east starting at 160E and over a large section of the subsurface equatorial Pacific (Kelvin Wave #7) and building while tracking east with 3 deg anomalies from 175W with embedded +4 deg anomalies and points east of there and +4-5 degs anomalies from 121W and points east of there originating from Kelvin Waves #6, #5 and #4 erupting into Ecuador. A steady stream of +1-2 degree anomalies were falling off the Maritime Continent merging with the preexisting warm stream. In other words, this image suggests a steady flow of warm water flowing east from the Maritime Continent suggesting Kelvin Wave #8 is developing. No cool anomalies were indicated. El Nino is developing. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (10/30) Sea heights were positive across the equatorial Pacific starting at 165E at +0-5 cms extending east into Ecuador. +5-10 cm anomalies were in the east from 175E east to 95W with weak anomalies into Ecuador. Positive anomalies extending north into Central America and south to Peru. This means no cool water was at depth. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (10/30) warm water is building at +0.5 degs from 175E to Ecuador with a pocket of +1.00-1.50 deg anomalies between 178E to 144W. The full development of El Nino is starting with cooler water developing over the West Pacific and warm water building in the east and pushing east with a new Kelvin Wave in flight. But the demise of the warm pool in the west signals an eventual turn to La Nina (sometime next year).

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (11/6) The latest images depict a strong warm stream from Ecuador west out to 132W (previously 115W) and building in strength and coverage. And moderate warm waters continued west from there to the dateline. The warm pool is looking fairly solid and building steadily. Heat also extends north up to Southern Baja and south down into Central Chile. There is a very clear El Nino signal with the classic El Nino triangle in-place and building towards a strong status.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (11/6): A small thin stream of strong warming was aligned on the equator west to 110W and the neutral west of there. Perhaps some energy is being added to the warm surface pool. A warming trend had been well entrenched over the East Pacific since Nov 1 2022 with no cooling waters over the equatorial East Pacific since 12/15.
Hi-res Overview: (11/6) Warmer than normal waters are filling the East Pacific off Chile, Peru, Ecuador and north up to Mexico with strong warming in many pockets from Ecuador out to 120W and building west of there to the dateline. The classic El Nino tongue of more intense warming is building considerably over the equator west to the dateline. Everything is now looking like El Nino.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (11/7) (The official OISST temp record runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps are building some at +1.924 but are generally declining after being up to +1.865 (10/26). Previous temps were down at +1.755 (10/22), down to +1.527 (10/6), up to +2.10 (9/17) and have been falling since 8/31 when they were up to +3.073 after rising to +3.164 (8/18) after being up to +2.925 on 8/10 after rising at +3.074 degs (8/7) after being up to +3.391 (on 7/20) and had been rising from +2.906 (starting 7/3) rising from +2.451 after peaking at +2.7926 on 6/13 and have been up in the +2.0 to +3.0 degs range since 4/1 having previously peaked at +2.891 (4/13). Previously temps reached +2.302 degrees on 4/6, +1.732 degs (3/22), up from +0.462 since 2/28. Temps had reached as high as +1.076 on 2/19 and were previously steady at +0.848 since 2/7. Previously they started steadily rising 11/13 when they were around -1.5 degs C.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (11/7) (OISST runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were falling some at +1.321 after rising to +1.449 on 11/2 and +1.300 on 10/20 after falling down to +1.149 (10/11). . Weekly OISST were up at +1.8 degs, the highest so far, and were at +1.6 the previous 2 weeks (10/18 & 1025), +1.5 the 3 weeks previous (through 10/11) after being up to +1.7 degs the week before and +1.6 degs 3 weeks in a row prior (starting 8/30) putting us in minimal strong El Nino status. Temps first time above +1.0 degs was on 8/7 after being up to +0.967 (8/1) up from +0.873 degs (7/25) after peaking at +0.985 (7/18). Previously temps were rising slightly at +0.882 (7/9) after being steady at +0.794 4-5 days and that after being steady at +0.895 (3 days near 6/25) after being in the +0.712 range the previous 9 days after previously rising to +0.975 on 6/9. We are now 31 days into a trend of being above the El Nino threshold (for the 2nd time). Temps reached the El Nino threshold for the first time on 5/17 at +0.507 then quickly fell over the next 10 days down to +0.378 (5/26). Previous peaks of +0.318 on 4/30 besting the previous peak at +0.199 on 4/21. Temps have been steadily increasing hitting 0.0 on 4/12 and were then more or less steady the previous 4 weeks. Temps previously rose to -0.402 on 2/23. Temps rose above the La Nina threshold (-0.5 degs) on 2/22 and had been rising slowly since 2/12 when they were about -1.0 degs C. They had been in the -1.0 deg range since at least Nov 2022.

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps bottomed out at at -1.25 degs in early Nov 2020, up to -0.01 degs in mid-June 2021 then fading to -1.05 degs in mid-Nov then rebuilding to -0.7 in mid Feb 2022 then fading to -1.1 degs in May before starting an upward climb peaking in mid-June at -0.65 degs and mid July at -0.55 degs. A steady decline set in after that falling to -1.00 degs in Aug and Sept rising to -0.8 degs mid Oct then falling to -1.0 in Nov but then slowly rising to -0.75 degs in Jan 2023 and up to -0.5 degs (above the La Nina threshold) on 2/12. Temps rose to +0.50 degs mid-May and were at +0.9 degs in mid-June, and +1.05 mid July reaching up to +1.30 degs early Aug peaking at +1.6 degs in Sept.
Forecast (11/7) - Temps are to hold at +1.6 degs into mid-Nov, then rising fast to +1.70 degs in Dec and +1.90 degs in Jan and solidly in strong El Nino territory before starting a slow fade thereafter. The PDF Corrected forecast suggests temps are forecast falling to +1.45 degs in mid-Nov (not likely) then rising to +1.60 degs in Dec and Jan. According to this version of the model we are building into a mid to upper level strong El Nino.
IRI Consensus Plume: The October 19, 2023 Plume (all models) depicts temps are +1.777 degs today and it's the 7th month above the La Nina threshold. Temps to rise steadily from here forward up to +1.836 degrees in November then fading from there. The dynamic model suggest temps peaking at +2.004 in Nov and +1.979 in Dec while the statistic models show +1.836 and +1.769 degrees respectively. The dynamic models are running a bit hotter than the statistic models. The CFS model is on the low end of the dynamic model range with 7 of 17 models above +2.0 degrees.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (11/7) the Daily Index was negative at -18.71 and have been solidly negative 3 days, Previously they were toggling between weakly positive and negative for 12 days (starting 10/24), but were solidly negative for 65 days prior (starting 9/16). It was positive the previous 7 days, then negative the previous 29 days (7/14-8/11) with a peak down to -37.30 on 7/25.The SOI has effectively been negative since 7/12. It was positive the previous 21 days then was negative 11 days prior and positive 5 days previous then negative for 27 days previous ending 6/6 with a peak down to -29.32 on 5/31, -64.63 on 5/24 and -31.31 on 5/12. Previously readings were toggling between +10 and -10 for 13 days, but negative the 15 days previous to that, positive the 6 days prior to that after being mostly negative 25 days before that. It fell to -19.40 on 4/2. -17.44 on 2/22, the beginning of a change from which no return seemed likely. It was up to +21.85 on 2/10 and +55.74 on 12/22 and were in the +20 range the previous 22 days.
The 30 day average was falling from -6.48 after peaking at -5.75 on 911/5 and previously down to -15.70 on 9/23. It fell below the neutral point on 7/26. It rose above positive 7/3-7/25. It previously fell to -19.64 on 6/5 had been falling to -4.13 on 4/4 (lagging indicator driven by the Active Phase of the MJO) after falling to -0.52 on 3/22 previously falling to +4.18 on 11/27 and peaking at +21.57 (10/16) after supposedly peaking at +19.66 on 9/28. It was down to +6.89 on 7/29. It peaked at +20.34 (5/12) the highest in a year and beating last years high of +19.51 (1/14).
The 90 day average was rising some at -9.46 and turned negative the first time in years on 5/12. Recent max lows were -11.85 on 10/15, -8.90 on 8/8 and -7.57 on 6/6. It previously peaked at +14.63 on 2/20, +15.61 on 10/25 and +12.92 on 8/11 and that after peaking at +18.40 (7/2) beating it's previous peak of +16.86 (5/31), the highest in a year. It previously peaked at +9.80 (9/21) after falling to it's lowest point in a year at +1.06 (6/9). The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 (2/23/21 - clearly indicative of La Nina then). This index is a lagging indicator but suggests that the Active Phase occurring now is starting to drive the index down, hopefully with no upward trend in sight for at least a year.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative ever since, driven by recent La Nina conditions. In May-July 2021 it was the most negative its been in the -1.80 to -2.04 range since Sept 2012 (-2.99) and then fell to -3.16 in Oct 2021 (the lowest since July 1933) then settled at -2.72 in Nov and Dec 2021. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.