Pacific Storm & Surf Forecast (Stormsurf)

Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt): Seas were 2.5 ft @ 13.3 secs with swell 1.0 ft @ 13.3 secs from 194 degrees. Water temp 79.7 (Barbers Pt), 79.5 (Pearl Harbor 233), NA (Lani 239).
Buoy 187 (Pauwela): Seas were 10.1 ft @ 9.9 secs with swell 7.8 ft @ 10.3 secs from 17 degrees. Water temp 77.9 degs
Buoy 106 (Waimea)/Buoy 202 (Hanalei): Seas were 7.7 ft @ 11.8 secs with swell 5.7 ft @ 9.1 secs from 26 degrees. Water temp 79.2 degs
Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 5.9 ft @ 7.1 secs with swell 4.4 ft @ 7.5 secs from 214 degrees. Wind east at 10-14 kts. Water temperature 64.0 degs, 61.9 (Harvest 071), 63.7 (Topanga 103), 62.2 (Long Beach 215), 61.5 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 62.2 (Del Mar 153), 64.4 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 3.7 ft @ 11.9 secs from 286 degrees. At E. Santa Barbara (46053) swell was 2.4 ft @ 12.5 secs from 276 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 3.6 ft @ 6.5 secs from 194 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.4 ft @ 16.7 secs from 200 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 3.0 ft @ 13.4 secs from 257 degrees. Water temperature was 62.2 degrees (Imperial Beach).
Buoy 029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 6.8 ft @ 10.5 secs with swell 4.3 ft @ 10.3 secs from 275 degrees. Wind east at 10-14 kts (46026) and southeast at 18-21 kts (1801589). Water temp NA (Bodega Bay 46013), 59.0 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 57.9 (San Francisco 46026), 56.5 (SF Bar 142), 59.5 (1801589) and 59.2 (Monterey Bay 46042).

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Thursday (11/16) in North and Central CA waves were chest to near head high and lined up with decent form and clean with light offshore wind. Protected breaks were waist to near chest high and lined up and soft but clean. At Santa Cruz surf was waist to chest high on the sets and somewhat lined up but broken up and weird though clean. In Southern California/Ventura waves were chest to head high and super clean and reasonably lined up with no wind and clean but a little soft. Central Orange County had sets at waist to chest high coming from the south and a bit warbled and weird though clean early. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets at chest high and lined up but real soft and a little warbled but clean. North San Diego had a few waist high sets and somewhat lined up and clean but soft. Oahu's North Shore had waves at head high and lined up with decent form but a bit wonky and soft though clean early. The South Shore was flat and clean. The East Shore was getting tradewind generated windswell at head high to 1 ft overhead and chopped from strong east-northeast trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Thursday (11/16) mainly local windswell was hitting California and Hawaii. A gale was previously off Central CA Mon-Wed (11/15) producing 29 ft seas but all aimed south bypassing both Hawaii and California. And another gale is forecast developing Sun-Mon (11/20) in the Central Gulf lifting northeast fast producing 33 seas aimed south targeting both Hawaii and CA. Another gale is forecast developing on the dateline tracking east-southeast Tues-Thurs (11/23) producing up to 41 ft seas aimed at Hawaii and CA. A nice pattern is trying to emerge.

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

Overview
Jetstream
On Thursday (11/16) the jet was weakly consolidated pushing east off Japan with winds 150 kts then weakening half way to the dateline only to regroup on the dateline with winds 140 kts then splitting north of Hawaii with most energy tracking northeast up into Alaska. No clear troughs were indicated offering no real support for gale development. Over the next 72 hours a trough is to start building on the dateline starting Fri (11/17) but pretty pinched offering limited support for gale development into Mon (11/20) while lifting north. Something to monitor. Beyond 72 hours winds are to start building in the jet on Mon (11/20) at 190 kts tracking east off Japan fading on Tues (11/21) to 170 kts while starting to dig out a decent trough on the dateline pushing east into Thurs (11/23) over the Central Gulf offering some decent potential for gale development. And back to the west then jet is to be reasonably consolidated tracking east on the 40N latitude line showing potential beyond.

Surface Analysis
On Thursday (11/16) only local windswell was occurring for California and Hawaii associated from a with a gale previously east of California (see East Gulf Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

East Gulf Gale
A gale developing in the Eastern Gulf 1,000 nmiles west of North CA on Mon AM (11/13) producing north winds at 35 kts with seas 23 ft at 40N 143.75W aimed south and southeast. In the evening the gale stalled well off off San Francisco producing north winds at 35-40 kts with seas 24 ft at 35.5N 142W aimed south to southeast. On Tues AM (11/14) winds built to 40 kts from the northeast targeting Hawaii with seas 29 ft at 35N 141.75W aimed south with sideband energy at Hawaii. In the evening more of the same occurred with the gale stationary off San Francisco with 40 kt north and northeast winds and seas 28 ft at 36N 134.75W aimed south. On Wed AM (11/15) the gale was fading with a smaller area of 30-35 kt north winds and seas fading from 28 ft at 32.5N 136W targeting Hawaii more than CA. Residual 30 kts north winds were fading in the afternoon with seas fading from 20 ft at 28N 135W aimed south. The gale dissipated from there. Something to monitor.

Oahu: Maybe some windswell to result Thurs (11/16) building to 4.5 ft @ 10 secs. Windswell fading Fri (11/17) from 4 ft @ 10-11 secs (4.0 ft). Swell Direction: 35 degrees

Fri AM (11/17) low pressure is to be approaching Pt Conception with east winds 10 kts for North CA east and southeast winds 15 kts for Central CA and south winds 5 kts for Southern CA. In the afternoon southeast winds are forecast at 15-20 kts for North CA and southeast winds 15-20 kts for Central CA and southwest winds 5 kts for Southern CA early. No precip early but rain developing for all Central CA and most of North CA in the afternoon and all of North and Central CA overnight while moving south over Southern CA from the north.
Sat AM (11/18) the low dissipates while moving onshore over the SF Bay Area producing southeast winds 10-15 kts for North CA early and south winds 10 kts for Central CA and southwest winds 5 kts for Southern CA. In the afternoon the low is gone with northwest winds 5 kts from North and Central CA and calm winds of Southern CA. Rain for all of California early continuing through the day while steadily fading. Wet snow for higher elevations of the Sierra through the day.
Sun AM (11/19) high pressure starts to arrive with northwest winds 20 kts for North CA and 15-20 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds build to 25 kts for all of North and Central CA with high pressure centered over costal Oregon. No precip forecast.
Mon AM (11/20) northwest winds are to be 20-25 kts for North CA and 10-15 kts for Central CA nearshore but 20 kts just off the coast early. In the afternoon north to northeast winds to be 10 kts for North CA and 10 kts for Central CA.
Tues AM (11/21) north to northwest winds to be 5 kts for North And Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 10 kts for North and Central CA.
Wed AM (11/22) high pressure arrives with northwest winds 15 kts early for North and Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds build to 15-20 kts for North CA and 15 kts for Central CA.
Thurs AM (11/23) northwest winds to be 20-25 kts for North CA early and 20+ kts for Central CA.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at 5, 4, 8, and 8 inches respectively all on Sat (11/18). .

Temperatures for the Pacific Crest Trail and Tioga Pass Road intersection (8,700 ft): 30 degrees through Sat (11/18) then rising to 45 degrees Mon-Wed (11/22) before falling to 30 degs beyond and down to 20 degrees Sat (11/25).

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Overview
Surface Analysis
No swell of interest coming from the Southern Hemisphere was hitting Hawaii or California. Summer is over.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

Beyond 72 hours a gale is forecast developing north of Hawaii on Sat PM (11/18) producing 35-40 kt north winds and seas building. On Sun AM (11/19) north winds to build in coverage at 35-40 900 nmiles north of Oahu with seas 21 ft at 38N 156W aimed south. The gale is to lift north in the evening with 40-45 kt north winds and seas 30 ft over a small area at 45N 155W aimed south. Fetch is to drift north on Mon AM (11/20) at 50 kts from the northwest with seas 33 ft at 48N 153W aimed south targeting Hawaii and CA. in the evening fetch is to hold position with 40 kt northwest winds and seas 27 ft at 47N 153w aimed southeast. On Tues AM (11/21) fetch is to hold position fading from 35 kts from the west with seas 24 ft at 47N 144W aimed east and southeast. The gale is to be fading from there. Something to monitor.

And starting Tues AM (11/21) a storm is to start developing just west of the dateline with 45-55 kt northwest winds with seas building from 28 ft at 37N 168E aimed east. In the evening northwest winds to be 45-50 kts on the dateline with seas 33 ft at 45N 178E aimed southeast. The storm is to fade to gale status Wed AM (11/22) with 40+ kt northwest winds over a decent sized area over the Western Gulf with seas 40 ft at 43.25N 176W aimed southeast. In the evening fetch is to be fading from 35-40 kts from the west and positioned 1200 nmiles north of Hawaii with seas 39 ft at 41.25N 168W aimed east. The gale is to dissipate from there. Something to monitor.

El Nino Steadily Building
Kelvin Waves #4, #5 and #6 Erupting - NINO3.4 SSTs reflect El Nino
1 Kelvin Wave traversed the Pacific in Dec '22 with a 2nd in Jan-Feb and a 3rd and 4th in March-April, a 5th in May and a 6th in August. But after the last Active MJO in mid-to-late May (resulting in Kevin Wave #5), the MJO stalled. Finally the Active Phase restarted in later July Producing Kelvin Wave #6 which is erupting off Ecuador now. Sea Surface Temperatures in the east are warm and holding, and slightly expanding. And another Active Phase of the MJO is developing now (mid-Oct) likely starting to produce Kelvin Wave #7 which is pushing east. All these Active MJO/Kevin Wave pairs are backfilling warm water off Ecuador and helping push the atmosphere towards El Nino. And El Nino is finally starting to be evident in the atmosphere as evidenced by the SOI, OLR. ocean current, and wind anomalies.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023.

Rationale: A 3 year La Nina started fading in Jan 2023 and was gone by April. 6 Active MJO's produced 6 Kelvin Waves over early to mid 2023 with Kelvin Wave #7 in August building over the West Pacific and the 4th, 5th and 6th backed up off Ecuador now (10/20/23). The CFS model is predicting steady west anomalies from here forward and the leading edge of the low pressure bias moving over California now filling the Pacific. We are now under an El Nino status. We are moving into a period of enhanced storm production (starting late Sept 2023) and beyond, getting intense come late Fall and early Winter. This should result in an above normal level of swells, with swells being longer than normal duration from here forward as El Nino gets a stronger footprint on the atmosphere. The net result is a well above normal number of swells with above normal size and duration (i.e 15 significant class swells perhaps). Last year there were 0 and year before 5 or less.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (11/15) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the East equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and very strong west over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the East equatorial Pacific and neutral over the Central Pacific and strong west over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (11/16) Strong west anomalies were filling the KWGA today and have been since 11/7 and are over the entire equatorial Pacific east to Ecuador. The forecast indicates west anomalies are to fade over the KWGA starting 11/18 but holding east of the KWGA through 11/25. East anomalies are to take hold of the KWGA 11/20 continuing through the end of the model run on 12/2.

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (11/15) A weak Active MJO (wet air/cloudy skies) was over the KWGA focused on the dateline today. The statistic model indicates the Active signal holding at weak status over the dateline through day 10 of the model run while the the Inactive MJO (dry air/cloud free skies) starts building over the West KWGA on days 5 and 10 then filling the KWGA on day 15. The dynamic model depicts the same thing but with a neutral pattern developing on day 10 and then neutral filling the equatorial Pacific on day 15 of the model run.
Phase Diagrams - 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (11/16) The statistical model depicts the Active signal was weak over the East Pacific today. The forecast indicates it is to move to the West Indian Ocean 15 days out and weak. The dynamic model indicates the Active signal tracking east over the East Indian Ocean 2 weeks out and weak.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (11/16) An Active MJO pattern (wet air) was indicated over the East Pacific today with a neutral pattern over the KWGA. The forecast has a moderate Inactive signal (dry air) is to push through the KWGA 11/26-12/11. Then another Active (wet air) pattern sets up over the KWGA 12/16 easing east and filling the KWGA the last day of the model run on 12/26.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (11/15) Today the Active Phase of the MJO was fading over KWGA with strong west anomalies in control over the KWGA (since 11/5). The forecast has west anomalies and the Active Phase holding at strong status through 11/17 then pushing east over the East Pacific through 11/23. West anomalies in the KWGA are to fade turning light east 11/18 and holding over the KWGA into 11/22. West anomalies are to return 11/23 holding through the end of the model run on 12/13 over the KWGA. Of note: Moderate east anomalies started building over the Indian Ocean on 9/2 and are now at strong status today and forecast holding through 11/15 then moderating at moderate status through the end of the model run. That coupled with strong west anomalies in the West Pacific suggest massively falling air occurring near 120E (Maritime Continent), likely the downward branch of the Walker Circulation. The Indian Ocean Dipole is currently strong positive and building (the falling branch of the Walker Circulation). We're into a real El Nino pattern according to this model.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (11/16) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today a weak Inactive Phase was fading over the KWGA but with modest to strong west anomalies in control. The weak Inactive Phase is to fade over the KWGA 11/17 with a mix of weak east and west anomalies developing into 11/24. After that a weak MJO signal is forecast with modest west anomalies in control of the KWGA into 12/12. A pulse of the Active Phase is to develop 12/13-1/10 with moderate to strong west anomalies in control of the KWGA into 1/19. After that a weak Inactive Phase develops 12/25 in the far west KWGA then filling it through the end of the model run on 2/13 with west anomalies moving east to 150W and east anomalies moving east and nearly filling the KWGA starting 12/26 and beyond. Also note that east anomalies started building at 70E (West Indian Ocean) on 9/7 and started peaking 10/15 forecast holding into 12/15, then moderating while pushing hard east on 12/27-1/15 into the West KWGA and holding through the end of the model run. This strong east and west anomaly pattern looks very much like falling air centered over the Maritime Continent (120E) associated with the downward branch of the Walker Circulation/+IOD. Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) suggests cloud activity took over the KWGA weakly on 6/24 and started building in earnest then more solid starting Sept 15, It started building strongly on 10/16 and is continuing to build, strongly starting on 11/1 and continuing today. It is forecast building strongly from here forward while easing east to 140W on 1/11 then holding through the end of the model run. Conversely clear skies started building over the Maritime Continent in mid-May and have continued solidifying today and are forecast building to Jan 2, then fading while moving east to 150E in early January. This also suggests a rising air pattern associated with the upward branch of the Walker Circulation developing today on the dateline and moving east to 140W in January. The low pass filter indicates a broad low pressure bias is established over the KWGA centered at 175W with a 4th contour line (starting 11/5). A 5th contour line has dissolved from the model. The high pressure bias started to build over the Maritime Continent on 10/2. A second high pressure contour has faded from the model. It appears a strong El Nino is finally starting to develop in a classical sense and is to move east over the next 3 months.

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (11/16) Today in the far West Pacific the leading edge of the 30 deg isotherm was easing east at 166W (previously 169W). The 29 degree isotherm was steady at 157W (previously 158W). The 28 deg isotherm line was steady at 139W (previously 145W). The 24 degree isotherm extended the whole way across the Pacific and was getting shallower at 35m (25m earlier but at one point down to 65m). Anomaly wise, warm anomalies at +2 deg C started in the far West Pacific at 170E associated with newly developing Kelvin Wave #7 with a building core of up to +4 degs anomalies centered at 155W pushing east in a continuous stream (at +2 degs) feeding into Kelvin Wave #6 and other previous Kelvin Waves that have formed a broad pocket of +3 degs anomalies starting at 147W and +4-5 degs anomalies over the East Pacific starting from 132W (previously 136W). The warm pool in the east (originating from Kelvin Waves #6, 5, 4...) is discharging to the surface while being backfilled by more warm water/Kelvin Wave #7 and growing in coverage some. There's about 3 months of warm water backed up off the Ecuadorian Coast (previously 2 months) today with a stream of warm water backfilling into it. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 11/9 indicates a large very warm stream of +1-2 degs anomalies extending west to east starting at 165E and over a large section of the subsurface equatorial Pacific (Kelvin Wave #7) and building while tracking east with 3 deg anomalies from 165W with embedded +4 deg anomalies and points east of there and +4-5 degs anomalies from 120W and points east of there originating from Kelvin Waves #6, #5 and #4 erupting into Ecuador. A steady stream of +1-2 degree anomalies were falling off the Maritime Continent merging with the preexisting warm stream. In other words, this image suggests a steady flow of warm water flowing east from the Maritime Continent suggesting Kelvin Wave #8 is developing. No cool anomalies were indicated. El Nino is developing. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (11/9) Sea heights were positive across the equatorial Pacific starting at 165E (previously 165E) at +0-5 cms extending east into Ecuador. +5-10 cm anomalies were in the east from 175E east to 110W with weak anomalies into Ecuador. Positive anomalies extending north into Central America and south to Peru. This means no cool water was at depth. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (11/4) warm water is building at +0.5 degs from 175E to Ecuador with a pocket of +1.00-1.50 deg anomalies between 174W to 127W. The full development of El Nino is starting with cooler water developing over the West Pacific and warm water building in the east and pushing east with a new Kelvin Wave in flight. But the demise of the warm pool in the west signals an eventual turn to La Nina (sometime next year).

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (11/15) The latest images depict a strong warm stream from Ecuador west out to 140W (previously 115W) but losing strength while being buffeted by east anomalies near the Galapagos. And moderate warm waters continued west from there to the dateline. The warm pool is looking fairly solid and consistent from Ecuador to the dateline but not building. Heat also extends north up to Southern Baja and south down into Central Chile. There is a very clear El Nino signal with the classic El Nino triangle in-place and building towards a strong status.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (11/15): A small thin stream of strong cooling water was aligned on the equator from the Galapagos west to 100W and then neutral west of there. Perhaps some energy is being removed from the warm surface pool. A warming trend had been well entrenched over the East Pacific since Nov 1 2022 with no cooling waters over the equatorial East Pacific since 12/15.
Hi-res Overview: (11/15) Warmer than normal waters are filling the East Pacific off Chile, Peru, Ecuador and north up to Mexico but with strong warming pockets from Ecuador out to 120W now gone, due to east anomalies there. The classic El Nino tongue of more intense warming is building considerably over the equator west to the dateline. Everything is now looking like El Nino.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (11/16) (The official OISST temp record runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps are falling some at +1.402 after being at +1.657 (11/13) and up to +2.001 (11/6-11/10) then generally steady in the +1.9 degs range 9/28-11/9. Previous temps were down at +1.755 (10/22), down to +1.527 (10/6), up to +2.10 (9/17) and have been falling since 8/31 when they were up to +3.073 after rising to +3.164 (8/18) after being up to +2.925 on 8/10 after rising at +3.074 degs (8/7) after being up to +3.391 (on 7/20) and had been rising from +2.906 (starting 7/3) rising from +2.451 after peaking at +2.7926 on 6/13 and have been up in the +2.0 to +3.0 degs range since 4/1 having previously peaked at +2.891 (4/13). Previously temps reached +2.302 degrees on 4/6, +1.732 degs (3/22), up from +0.462 since 2/28. Temps had reached as high as +1.076 on 2/19 and were previously steady at +0.848 since 2/7. Previously they started steadily rising 11/13 when they were around -1.5 degs C.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (11/16) (OISST runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were steady at +1.236 after being up to +1.449 on 11/2 and +1.300 on 10/20 after falling down to +1.149 (10/11). . Weekly OISST were steady at +1.8 degs (2 weeks running), the highest so far, and were at +1.6 the previous 2 weeks (10/18 & 1025), +1.5 the 3 weeks previous (through 10/11) after being up to +1.7 degs the week before and +1.6 degs 3 weeks in a row prior (starting 8/30) putting us in minimal strong El Nino status. Temps first time above +1.0 degs was on 8/7 after being up to +0.967 (8/1) up from +0.873 degs (7/25) after peaking at +0.985 (7/18). Previously temps were rising slightly at +0.882 (7/9) after being steady at +0.794 4-5 days and that after being steady at +0.895 (3 days near 6/25) after being in the +0.712 range the previous 9 days after previously rising to +0.975 on 6/9. We are now 31 days into a trend of being above the El Nino threshold (for the 2nd time). Temps reached the El Nino threshold for the first time on 5/17 at +0.507 then quickly fell over the next 10 days down to +0.378 (5/26). Previous peaks of +0.318 on 4/30 besting the previous peak at +0.199 on 4/21. Temps have been steadily increasing hitting 0.0 on 4/12 and were then more or less steady the previous 4 weeks. Temps previously rose to -0.402 on 2/23. Temps rose above the La Nina threshold (-0.5 degs) on 2/22 and had been rising slowly since 2/12 when they were about -1.0 degs C. They had been in the -1.0 deg range since at least Nov 2022.

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps bottomed out at at -1.25 degs in early Nov 2020, up to -0.01 degs in mid-June 2021 then fading to -1.05 degs in mid-Nov then rebuilding to -0.7 in mid Feb 2022 then fading to -1.1 degs in May before starting an upward climb peaking in mid-June at -0.65 degs and mid July at -0.55 degs. A steady decline set in after that falling to -1.00 degs in Aug and Sept rising to -0.8 degs mid Oct then falling to -1.0 in Nov but then slowly rising to -0.75 degs in Jan 2023 and up to -0.5 degs (above the La Nina threshold) on 2/12. Temps rose to +0.50 degs mid-May and were at +0.9 degs in mid-June, and +1.05 mid July reaching up to +1.30 degs early Aug, +1.6 degs in Sept holding in Oct and , +1.75 in Nov..
Forecast (11/16) - Temps to are to fade to +1.65 degs into early Dec, then rising to +1.80 degs in mid- Jan and solidly in strong El Nino territory before starting a slow fade thereafter. The PDF Corrected forecast suggests temps are forecast falling to +1.65 degs in mid-Dec (not likely) and holding at +1.65 degs in Jan before starting to fall. According to this version of the model we are building into a mid to upper level strong El Nino.
IRI Consensus Plume: The October 19, 2023 Plume (all models) depicts temps are +1.777 degs today and it's the 7th month above the La Nina threshold. Temps to rise steadily from here forward up to +1.836 degrees in November (that's a 3 months running mean) then fading from there. The dynamic model suggest temps peaking at +2.004 in Nov and +1.979 in Dec while the statistic models show +1.836 and +1.769 degrees respectively. The dynamic models are running a bit hotter than the statistic models. The CFS model is on the low end of the dynamic model range with 7 of 17 models above +2.0 degrees.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (11/16) the Daily Index was negative at -10.25 and has been solidly negative 12 days, Previously they were toggling between weakly positive and negative for 12 days (starting 10/24), but were solidly negative for 65 days prior (starting 9/16). It was positive the previous 7 days, then negative the previous 29 days (7/14-8/11) with a peak down to -37.30 on 7/25.The SOI has effectively been negative since 7/12. It was positive the previous 21 days then was negative 11 days prior and positive 5 days previous then negative for 27 days previous ending 6/6 with a peak down to -29.32 on 5/31, -64.63 on 5/24 and -31.31 on 5/12. Previously readings were toggling between +10 and -10 for 13 days, but negative the 15 days previous to that, positive the 6 days prior to that after being mostly negative 25 days before that. It fell to -19.40 on 4/2. -17.44 on 2/22, the beginning of a change from which no return seemed likely. It was up to +21.85 on 2/10 and +55.74 on 12/22 and were in the +20 range the previous 22 days.
The 30 day average was falling from -10.43 after peaking at -5.75 on 911/5 and previously down to -15.70 on 9/23. It fell below the neutral point on 7/26. It rose above positive 7/3-7/25. It previously fell to -19.64 on 6/5 had been falling to -4.13 on 4/4 (lagging indicator driven by the Active Phase of the MJO) after falling to -0.52 on 3/22 previously falling to +4.18 on 11/27 and peaking at +21.57 (10/16) after supposedly peaking at +19.66 on 9/28. It was down to +6.89 on 7/29. It peaked at +20.34 (5/12) the highest in a year and beating last years high of +19.51 (1/14).
The 90 day average was falling some at -11.12 (first day falling in a while) and turned negative the first time in years on 5/12. Recent max lows were -11.85 on 10/15, -8.90 on 8/8 and -7.57 on 6/6. It previously peaked at +14.63 on 2/20, +15.61 on 10/25 and +12.92 on 8/11 and that after peaking at +18.40 (7/2) beating it's previous peak of +16.86 (5/31), the highest in a year. It previously peaked at +9.80 (9/21) after falling to it's lowest point in a year at +1.06 (6/9). The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 (2/23/21 - clearly indicative of La Nina then). This index is a lagging indicator but suggests that the Active Phase occurring now is starting to drive the index down, hopefully with no upward trend in sight for at least a year.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative ever since, driven by recent La Nina conditions. In May-July 2021 it was the most negative its been in the -1.80 to -2.04 range since Sept 2012 (-2.99) and then fell to -3.16 in Oct 2021 (the lowest since July 1933) then settled at -2.72 in Nov and Dec 2021. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.