Pacific Storm & Surf Forecast (Stormsurf)

Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt)/Buoy 239 (Lani): Seas were 4.5 ft @ 16.7 secs with swell 3.0 ft @ 17.4 secs from 305 degrees. Water temp 78.3 degs (Barbers Pt), 78.4 (Pearl Harbor 233), 79.0 (Lani 239).
Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 5.4 ft @ 10.5 secs with swell 2.2 ft @ 17.7 secs from 311 degrees. Water temp 78.1 degs.
Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 2.1 ft @ 12.8 secs with swell 1.1 ft @ 12.4 secs from 221 degrees. Wind south at 6-8 kts. Water temperature 61.7 degs, 60.8 (Topanga 103), 61.0 degs (Long Beach 215), 60.6 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 59.5 (Del Mar 153), 59.9 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 2.6 ft @ 16.0 secs from 290 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.3 ft @ 13.3 secs from 205 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.3 ft @ 13.1 secs from 218 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 1.6 ft @ 13.3 secs from 233 degrees. Water temperate was 61.7 degrees.
Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 9.1 ft @ 10.8 secs with swell 5.1 ft @ 10.7 secs from 316 degrees. Wind north at 16-21 kts. Water temp 54.1 (Bodega Bay 46013), 54.9 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 53.2 (San Francisco 46026), 52.3 (SF Bar 142), 52.5 (Pt Santa Cruz 254) and 54.3 (Monterey Bay 46042).

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Thursday (12/1) North and Central CA had sets at head high and mushed and chopped with whitecaps in effect and not rideable. Protected breaks were waist to chest high on the sets and relatively clean but warbled and pretty closed out. At Santa Cruz surf was chest high but horribly chopped and ill formed and not rideable. In Southern California/Ventura waves were waist high on the sets and lined up and clean with some south texture on it but not too bad. Central Orange County had sets at thigh high and somewhat lined up but heavily textured and very mushed from south winds and not very rideable. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets at maybe waist high and lined up but super mushed and heavily textured. North San Diego had sets at thigh to waist high and warbled and ill formed. Hawaii's North Shore had sets at head high to 1 ft overhead and lined up at top spots but pretty warbled. The South Shore had some stray waist high sets and clean and rideable on occasion. The East Shore was effectively flat and nearly chopped from northeast trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Thursday (12/1) Hawaii was the last dribbles of swell from a gale developed just off Japan tracking east Thurs-Sat (11/26) producing up to 37 ft seas aimed east but did not make it east to the dateline. That swell is also starting to impact California but buried in local chop. Another gale developed just west of the dateline holding stationary Mon-Wed (11/30) with up to 40 ft seas aimed well east and expected to arrive in Hawaii later today. Beyond another gale previously forecast over the North Dateline region Sat-Sun (12/4) has disappeared from the forecast charts. A local gael has fallen south off the Pacific Northwest Wed-Thurs (12/1) with 24 ft seas aimed south and another is forecast for Fri-Sat (12/3) with 21 ft seas aimed south. Weather is impacting California with more forecast for the weekend.

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

Overview
Jetstream
On Thursday (12/1) the jetstream was consolidated pushing east off Japan then quickly tracking northeast and splitting while approaching the North Dateline region with most energy pushing hard north in the northern branch up into the North Bering Sea and beyond while fragmented weak energy in the southern branch was tracking east on the 40N latitude line reaching into Baja Mexico. A backdoor trough was pushing down the Pacific Northwest Coast and forecast moving inland over North CA later today. In all not real support for gale development was indicated. Over the next 72 hours a second trough is to develop later Thurs (12/1) falling south moving inland over North CA on Mon (12/5) likely producing weather for California with continued energy pushing over Central CA for the next 6 days. But nothing of interest is forecast for the greater North Pacific. Beyond 72 hours the jet is to start consolidating in the west off Japan lifting steadily east-northeast with winds 140 kts on Mon (12/5) mostly tracking over the Aleutians with no trough nor support for gale development indicated. And by later Tues (12/6) the jet is to start splitting just west of the dateline with most energy in the northern branch lifting northeast over the Aleutians and into the East Bering Sea again starting to form a backdoor trough off British Columbia on Thurs (12/8) being fed by 170 kts winds reaching the OR-CA border later in the day. But to the west the large split in the jet is to hold with ridging over the bulk of the North Pacific forecast offering no troughs nor support for gale development.

Surface Analysis
On Thursday (12/1) swell from a gale previously off Japan was fading out in Hawaii and starting to impact the US West Coast but mostly buried in chop nd local windswell (see Japan Gale below). Also swell is poised for Hawaii from another storm that developed stationary on the dateline targeting primarily Hawaii with lesser and buried energy for the US West Coast (see Dateline Storm below).

Over the next 72 hours a 2nd Local Gale is to develop off Washington on Fri AM (12/2) with 30 kt northwest winds and seas 18 ft at 47.75N 140.5W aimed southeast. The gale to fall south off Oregon in the evening with 25 kts northwest winds and seas 17 ft at 45N 136W aimed southeast. On Sat AM (12/3) 30-35 kt north winds to are to be off North CA with 23 ft seas at 45.25N 137W aimed southeast. In the evening winds are to be fading from 30 kts from the north with seas 19 ft just off Cape Mendocino at 40N 135W aimed south. The gale is to dissipate from there. More raw swell likely for North CA starting late Sat (12/3).

North CA: For planning purposes raw windswell is expect to arrive on Sun (12/4) building to 5.4 ft @ 11-12 secs (6.0 ft). Swell fading on Mon (12/5) from 4.3 ft @ 9-10 secs (4.0 ft). Swell Direction: 270 degrees

Japan Gale
On Thurs AM (11/24) a storm developed just off North Japan with 50 kt northwest winds and seas building from 30 ft over a tiny area at 36N 151E aimed east. In the evening the gale tracked northeast slowly with west winds 45-50 kts with seas 29 ft over a tiny area at 38N 158E aimed east. On Fri AM (11/25) the storm was lifting hard northeast with 50-55 kt northwest winds and seas 35 ft at 42.25N 163E aimed east and still well west of the dateline. In the evening fetch was fading from 45 kts from the northwest still west of the dateline with seas 33 ft at 43N 163.75E aimed east. On Sat AM (11/26) the gale was tracking east with 40 kt northwest winds and seas fading from 31 ft at 42.5N 167E aimed east. In the evening remnants of the gale are to be approaching the dateline with north winds fading from 30-35 kts and seas 27 ft at 40.5N 172.25E aimed east. The gale is to dissipate from there.

Oahu: Dribbles on Thurs (12/1) fading from 2.5 ft @ 12 secs (3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 315 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Thurs (12/1) building to 2.2 ft @ 15 secs later (3.0 ft). and getting buried by locally produced windswell. Swell Direction: 298 degrees

Dateline Storm
Another storm was developing just west of the dateline Mon AM (11/28) with 50-55 kt west winds over a small area and seas building from 27 ft at 34.75N 169.25E aimed east. Fetch built in the evening at 55 kts from the west with the storm holding nearly stationary and seas building to 35 ft at 36N 175.5E aimed east. The gale held on the dateline Tues AM (11/29) with 50-55 kt west winds and seas 40 ft at 38.25N 176.75E aimed east and southeast. Fetch was fading in the evening from 40-45 kts from the west and northwest with seas 32 ft at 38N 179E aimed east. Fetch was fading Wed AM (11/30) from 35-40 kts and seas fading from 26 ft at 36.75N 177E aimed southeast. The gale was gone after that.

Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Thurs PM (12/1) building to 4.2 ft @ 17-18 secs at sunset (7.0 ft). Swell still decent Fri AM (12/2) fading from 5.6 ft @ 15 secs early (8.5 ft). Swell fading on Sat AM (12/3) from 4.3 ft @ 14 secs early (6.0 ft). Residuals on Sun AM (12/4) fading from 3.1 ft @ 12 secs (3.5 ft). Swell Direction: 310-315 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Sat (12/3) building to 2.5 ft @ 17 secs later (4.0 ft) with local windswell intermixed. Swell building on Sun (12/4) to 3.2 ft @ 15 secs early (4.5 ft) but buried in locally generated swell. Swell fading on Mon (12/5) from 2.0 ft @ 13 secs (2.5 ft) and still buried. Swell Direction: 287 degrees

1st Local California Gale
On Wed AM (11/30) a local gale is to be developing just off British Columbia producing north winds at 35-40 kts with seas building from 22 ft at 48N 138W aimed south. In the evening fetch is to be falling south off Washington from the north at 35 kts with seas 26 ft at 47.75N 136.75W aimed south. On Thurs AM (12/1) fetch is to be fading from 30 kts off Oregon with seas 22 ft at 43N 135.75W aimed south. The gale is to dissipate off North CA in the evening.

North CA: Raw swell to possibly arrive the afternoon of Thurs (12/1) building to 6.5 ft @ 11-12 secs later (7.5 ft). Swell continues on Fri (12/2) at 6.8 ft @ 13 secs early (8.5 ft). Swell Direction: 310 degrees

Tropical Update
No tropical systems of interest are being monitored at this time.

Fri AM (12/2) light winds are forecast at 10 kts or less early from Pt Arena northward and northeast 15 kts from Pt Reyes southward into Central CA. In the afternoon light south winds are forecast for Cape Mendocino and northeast 5-10 kts from Pt Arena down to Pt Conception. Light rain early for the Pt Conception area and fading steadily through the day. No snow for the Sierra.
Sat AM (12/3) low pressure is to be off the OR-CA border with south winds forecast at 20-25 kts for Pt Arena northward and 10 kts down to the Golden gate and calm south of there. In the afternoon south winds are forecast at 15-20 kts for North CA and south 10 kts for Central CA. Rain lingering over all of Central CA and holding through the day. Light snow developing for the Sierra in the afternoon building in the evening as rain develops over North CA.
Sun AM (12/4) the low is to be off Cape Mendocino and weakening with south winds forecast at 15 kts for all of North and Central CA down to Monterey Bay and south 5-10 kts from there to Pt Conception. In the afternoon the low is to be dissipating with south winds 10-15 kts for all of North CA and south 5-10 kts down to Pt Conception. Rain for all of North and Central CA early starting to fade in the afternoon over Central CA. Snow for the Sierra through the day becoming focused north on Tahoe late afternoon and fading some in the evening.
Mon AM (12/5) the low is to be moving inland over Cape Mendocino with southwest winds 10 kts for North CA and west winds 10 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon a neutral pressure pattern sets up with northwest winds 5 kts for all of North and Central CA. Light rain continues for North CA early with the dividing line Half Moon Bay and holding in the afternoon. Snow continues for North Lake Tahoe and points north of there possibly turning to rain in the afternoon.
Tues AM (12/6) northwest winds are forecast at 5 kts for North and Central CA early. In the afternoon northeast winds are forecast for Cape Mendocino at 10 kts with light winds south of there. Light scattered showers along the North and Central CA coast in the afternoon. Maybe a few flurries for Tahoe.
Wed AM (12/7) north winds are forecast at 10 kts for Cape Mendocino early and calm south of there. No change in the afternoon. Light rain for Central CA in the afternoon. Some snow possible from Tahoe southward in the afternoon to evening.
Thurs AM (12/8) south winds are forecast at 10-15 kts for Cape mendocino early and northwest 5-10 kts southward to Pt Conception. In the afternoon south winds are forecast at 15-20 kts for most of North California and south 5-10 kts down to Santa Cruz but northwest 5-10 kts south of there. No precip forecast.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at 69, 70, 70, and 52 inches. All split between Thurs (12/1) then Sat-Sun (12/5) with small amounts steadily thereafter.

Freezing level for Lake Tahoe is 5,000 ft today then rising to 6,500-7,500 on Sat (12/3) before falling to 5,000 ft or less beyond and staying there. This is an upgrade.

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Overview
Surface Analysis
No swell producing fetch has occurred with no swell in the water or radiating towards the coast.

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

Beyond 72 hours no meaningful swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

Upwelling Trying to Hold
Weak West Wind Anomaly Pattern Setting Up over KWGA - SOI Falling Some
Cool subsurface water volume peaked under the equatorial Pacific on 10/15/21, faded in May and June 2022, but rebuilt in late July and is holding today. La Nina conditions are in control oceanically but appear to be fading some on the surface south of Nino3.4. And atmospherically anomalous Westerly Winds are starting to develop in the West KWGA and are forecast to continue for the foreseeable future, with La Nina collapsing near Christmas and water temps rising beyond. The outlook is turning more optimistic.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. A slow dissolving of La Nina started in March 2021 with 2 Kelvin Waves sweeping east and arriving over the Galapagos in June. Weak warming set up over the equator with no cool waters present. NOAA declared La Nina dead. But cold water returned in July 2021 and a second pulse of La Nina developed through the Winter of 2022 and is continuing today, though possibly weaker with its foundation appearing to be in decline.

Rationale: It was assumed that the moderate La Nina from the Winter of 2020/2021 was on the wane and that a return to neutral ENSO state would set up over the Pacific Basin through the summer of 2021. But La Nina made a strong return by the end of Sept much like what the CFS model suggested would happen and a full double dip pattern took hold through the Winter of 21/22. But a quick fade is forecast as we move into late December 2022 with the CFS predicting a return to a neutral wind anomaly pattern and the low pressure bias making headway in to the KWGA in early Jan. Still it will take some time for the atmosphere to fully respond, resulting in a less than normal swell production forecast especially for Fall into early Winter 2022. But by later in Jan or early Feb 2023 a return to a more normal pattern might take hold. As a result a significantly reduced number of storm days and storm intensity is expected Oct 22-Jan 23, resulting in a below normal level of swells, with swell being below normal duration and period. But by Feb 2023, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start improving as La Nina fades out. The net result is we're currently thinking a near normal number of swells with normal size and duration is to result, but all focused sometime after Jan 2023. The swell pattern will be below normal before Jan and above normal after Jan 23 with the average of the two being 'normal'. Of course this is all highly speculative at this early date.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (11/30) 5 day average winds were moderate strength from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and moderate east over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the East equatorial Pacific and weak east over the Central Pacific and modest east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
1-2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (12/1) Weak east anomalies were filling most of the KWGA today. The 7 day forecast calls for weak to modest east anomalies building over the KWGA for the next week through 12/8 but with one small strong east anomaly pocket developing just west of the dateline 12/3-12/6. The 2 week GFS model suggest modest east anomalies are over most of the KWGA today building on 12/4 to moderate strength and holding through 12/7, then fading with west anomalies developing over the West KWGA 12/13 and building in coverage beyond. West anomalies are to be weak over the East Pacific non-stop.

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (11/30) A weak Active Phase of the MJO signal was indicated fading over the dateline today. The statistical model indicates it fading on day 5 with a modest Inactive MJO developing over the West KWGA and holding on days 10 and 15 of the model run. The dynamic model is corrupted today.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (12/1) The statistical model depicts the Active signal was weak over the Atlantic today and is to track east over the Indian Ocean 2 weeks and very weak. The dynamic model suggest the Active Phase tracking east fast and reemerging weakly over the Maritime Continent 15 days out.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (12/1) A weakly Inactive MJO (dry air) was developing over the KWGA and is forecast to traverse the equatorial Pacific through 12/11. A neutral pattern biased weakly Active (wet air) is to follow developing over the KWGA 12/16 and holding through the end of the model run on 1/10.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (11/30) A weak Active MJO signal was trying to push east into the KWGA today with weak west anomalies in pockets over the KWGA. Moderate west anomalies are build over the KWGA filling 70% of it west of 170E starting tomorrow through 12/20 then losing energy but losing no ground through the end of the model run. East anomalies are to hold from 170E and points east of there. A change appears to be occurring with west anomalies taking over the western half or more of the KWGA.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (12/1) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today a neutral MJO biased weakly Inactive was over the KWGA with neutral to weak west anomalies in control of the KWGA. Weak west anomalies are to hold filling the KWGA through 1/10 as the weak Inactive MJO traverses the KWGA through 12/17. Weak east anomalies are forecast in the East KWGA 1/10-1/26 associated with a weak Inactive MJO signal traversing the KWGA. But the Active Phase of the MJO is to follow over the KWGA 1/12 through 2/20 with west anomalies mostly filling the KWGA. The big change we've been anticipating is underway marked by the arrival of west anomalies filling the KWGA starting on 11/16. East anomalies are to be relegated mostly to the dateline moving forward. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias with 2 contour lines centered at 180W with its western perimeter at 150E today. The second contour is to collapse on 12/25 with the primary contour collapsing or east of the KWGA at the end of the model run on 2/28. A broad double contour low pressure bias is established centered over the West Maritime Continent at 90E with it's leading edge at 125E today and is to slowly start pushing east starting today reaching east to 160E at the end of the model run. This is all a big deal and is being repeated in some form consistently from one run of the model to the next. It appears that the high pressure lockdown of the KWGA is starting to fade with no return in sight and suggests the demise of La Nina is starting to occur.

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (12/1) Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was gone, previously at 171E. The 28 deg isotherm line was steady at 176E. The 26 degree isotherm was steady at 153W. The 24 deg isotherm backtracked from 118W to 128W but was easing east today at 123W. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies at +3 deg C were in a broad pocket in the far Central Pacific down 150m with it's leading edge easing east from 150W to 130W. A pocket of cool anomalies at -2 degs C were centered at 115W and filling the area from 130W and points east of there and steady. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 11/24 indicates the same broad area of warm anomalies in the west pushing east to 135W and far warmer. A cool pocket was filling the area east of 130W with it's core at 110W and reaching the surface and far cooler. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (11/24) Sea heights were stable but negative over the East Equatorial Pacific. A broad pocket of positive anomalies were over the equator in the far West Pacific reaching east to 155W. A pocket of negative anomalies were covering from Ecuador to 145W with a core of -15 cm anomalies between 105W-130W and -10 cm anomalies easing east from 135W. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram cool anomalies were in retreat positioned in the Central Equatorial Pacific between 145W to Ecuador with a cold core shrinking limited to 115W-120W and easing east. It appears the stubborn cool pool is starting to track east.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (11/30) The latest images depict a broad generic pool of cool water extending west from Peru to the dateline and filling well south of the equator in a line east to west down at 20S. The coldest stream was embedded in it running from Ecuador to 145W on the equator but weaker than days past and not even along the direct coast anymore. And the broad area of cool water south of that stream previously reaching south to 25S was losing intensity steadily and now only fully positioned north of 20S. A broad area of warm water was present on the equator from Ecuador west to 140W but mostly just north of the equator starting at 2N. Overall this indicates the late stages of La Nina.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (11/30): A stream of warming waters extended west from Ecuador to 120W. Warming was also solid along Peru and Chile extending west to 140W and weaker the whole way across the South Pacific. The balance was clearly towards warming. In fact one could say a warming trend is underway.
Hi-res Overview: (11/30) Persistent cool waters cover a large area from Ecuador to 160E on and south of the equator from South America down at 20S with the coolest waters between 85W to 125W directly over the equator. But the intensity and density of those cold waters are in steep decline over it's entire area. Warmer than normal waters were on the equator in the east aligned in a thin stream from Ecuador to 120W starting 3 degrees north of the equator. La Nina remains in control over the East Equatorial Pacific but the density and intensity of the cooling appears to be fading.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (12/1) (These temps are biased high by about 0.2 degs compared to official sources). Today's temps were rising solidly to -1.208 after warming to -1.570 a few days around 11/17 and that after falling to to -2.177 (11/8) and generally falling to the following points -1.850 (10/20), -1.498 (9/21) and had been falling since 9/14 after being in the -1.0 range since 7/29. Coral Reef indicates temps rising steadily the last 8 days to -0.901 after falling to the lowest in weeks on 11/22 after rising to nearly -1.0 degs on 11/17, previously toggling between -1.8 to -2.1 degs since Oct 9th. Temps were down on 7/20 to -1.6 degs. Previously temps were stable near -1.4 degrees 6/12 through 7/27. Peaks in that time frame were -1.189 (7/7), -1.534 (7/5). Previously temps were at -1.822 on 6/9 after being up to -1.506 (5/21) and that after hovering around -2.0 degs since 4/21/22. Prior to that temps were fading after peaking at +0.760 on 3/18. Temps had been moving upwards since 2/20, and beat a previous high of -0.650 degs on 1/9 and that after being down at -1.871 on 1/3/22 and -1.954 on 12/18/21, the lowest this year so far. Previously temps dropped on 11/24/21 at -1.700, the lowest in months after previously toggling steady at about -0.6 degs from mid Aug to Oct 6, then falling from there. That year temps bottomed out at -2.138 on 8/13/20. The longterm trend has been steadily downward.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (12/1) (These temps are biased high by about 0.2 degs). Today's temps were falling slightly at -0.951 after falling to -1.110 on 11/3 and up to -0.900 on 10/18 beating a previous peak of -0.819 on 9/22. In general temps have been in the -1.0 range since 8/16. Coral Reef indicates temps were falling at -0.936 degs after rising to -0.870 on 11/29 and had been rising for 12 days prior after bottoming out at -1.168 degs on 11/2 after falling hard the previous 12 days. Temps had fallen since 7/15 reaching La Nina threshold on 7/27 after being more or less steady the previous 3 weeks peaking at -0.25 on 7/14 and -0.275 on 7/5. Previously temps had been on an upward trend since 5/15/22 rising to -0.414 degs (6/19) and -0.493 on 6/9, the first reading above La Nina threshold values since Sept 2021. Temps were down to -0.929 (5/2/22) and that after rising to a peak at -0.704 on 3/27 and had been on a gentle rising trend since falling to -1.012 on 3/8. Previously temps were rising slightly to -0.505 on 2/2 and that after reaching a peak low of -1.096 on 1/3/22 beating the previous low of -1.080 on 11/2/21, the lowest in a year. Prior to that temps had been in a freefall starting from the -0.175 range in early Sept/21. Before that temps peaked up at 7/1/21 +0.332, the highest in a year. Temps previously had been steady near -0.222 since early March 2021. Temps bottomed out at -1.654 on 11/3/2020.

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data
Previous - Temps rose in early Nov 2020 after bottoming out at -1.25 degs, up to -0.01 degs in mid-June 2021 then fading to -1.05 degs in mid-Nov then rebuilding to -0.7 in mid Feb 2022 then fading to -1.1 degs in May before starting an upward climb peaking in mid-June at -0.65 degs and mid July at -0.55 degs. A steady decline set in after that falling to -1.00 degs in Aug and earl Sept rising to -0.8 degs mod Oct.
Forecast (12/1) - Temps are to be steady at about -1.00 degs into mid-Dec then starting a fairly steady rise hitting -0.65 degs mid January and reaching above the La Nina threshold (-0.5 degs) the last week of Jan and up to +0.90 degs in August and in El Nino territory. This model suggests we are going to steadily transition towards ENSO neutral in Jan. The PDF Corrected forecast suggests temps bottoming out at -1.00 the 2nd week of Dec and then are to start pushing up to -0.60 degs mid- Jan rising above La Nina threshold the 3rd week of Jan and rising from there forward to +0.65 degs in July and holding in August. All this is a significant upgrade. According to this version of the model we will hold in weak La Nina conditions through Fall before starting a trend towards neutrality in Dec with momentum towards El Nino in Spring. The surface temp coverage model suggests a temps holding steady through Nov. then a steady erosion of the coldest waters south of Nino3.4 (down at 20S) is to begin. By Dec a clear discharge of La Nina is to begin with near neutral temps prevailing over the entire equatorial Pacific and turning fully neutral in Feb and beyond. The greater equatorial Pacific cool signature looks to hold through mid-Oct then quickly dissolving beyond.
IRI Consensus Plume: The November 18, 2022 Plume depicts temps are -0.921 degs today. Temps to rise steadily from here forward to -0.732 degs in Dec and above the La Nina Threshold at -0.494 in Jan and -0.256 in Feb rising to +0.572 in July. This model suggests a continuation of minimal La Nina temps through early Dec then transitioning to ENSO neutral. This model is in line with the CFS model.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (12/1) the Daily Index was falling at +16.81 and has been above +10 the past 4 days but was generally at +10.0 or lower from 11/-11/27. It was negative for 5 days dropping to -31.05 on 11/7. This was the first negative run in months and suggests that the westerly anomaly wind activity in the West Pacific might be having an impact on the SOI. Previous peaks were +37.19 (10/5), +33.57 (5/24), +40.77 (5/10), +31.44 (4/27), +31.80 (4/6), +27.33 (1/31) and +46.71 (12/26). The trend has been solidly positive. Previous other notable peaks were +30.98 (11/26/21), +36.90 (9/28), +27.75 ( 9/13) and +37.86 (7/15).
The 30 day average was falling at +4.67 after peaking at +21.57 (10/16) after supposedly peaking at +19.66 on 9/28. It was down to +6.89 on 7/29. It peaked at +20.34 (5/12) the highest in a year and beating last years high of +19.51 (1/14).
The 90 day average was stable at +14.21 previously peaking at +15.61 on 10/25 and previously peaking at +12.92 on 8/11 and that after peaking at +18.40 (7/2) beating it's previous peak of +16.86 (5/31), the highest in a year. It previously peaked at +9.80 (9/21) after falling to it's lowest point in a year at +1.06 (6/9). The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 (2/23/21 - clearly indicative of La Nina then). This index is a lagging indicator but suggest La Nina is returning.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative ever since, driven by recent La Nina conditions. In May-July 2021 it was the most negative its been in the -1.80 to -2.04 range since Sept 2012 (-2.99) and then fell to -3.16 in Oct 2021 (the lowest since July 1933) then settled at -2.72 in Nov and Dec 2021. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.