Pacific Storm & Surf Forecast (Stormsurf)

Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt): Seas were 2.7 ft @ 8.7 secs with swell 0.8 ft @ 20.6 secs from 255 degrees. Water temp 78.6 (Barbers Pt), 77.7 (Pearl Harbor 233), NA (Lani 239).
Buoy 187 (Pauwela): Seas were 6.1 ft @ 8.3 secs with swell 4.5 ft @ 8.1 secs from 89 degrees. Water temp 78.6 degs
Buoy 106 (Waimea)/Buoy 202 (Hanalei): Seas were 3.9 ft @ 12.5 secs with swell 1.2 ft @ 22.3 secs from 317 degrees. Water temp 78.6 degs
Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 4.0 ft @ 8.3 secs with swell 3.4 ft @ 6.4 secs from 266 degrees. Wind east at 8-12 kts. Water temperature 62.8 degs, 60.4 (Harvest 071), 61.9 (Topanga 103), 62.6 (Long Beach 215), 62.1 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 61.5 (Del Mar 153), 63.0 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 4.7 ft @ 12.5 secs from 301 degrees. At E. Santa Barbara (46053) swell was 2.4 ft @ 7.9 secs from 275 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 2.6 ft @ 7.5 secs from 264 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 2.5 ft @ 7.7 secs from 277 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 4.5 ft @ 8.2 secs from 282 degrees. Water temperature was 63.1 degrees (Imperial Beach).
Buoy 029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 7.6 ft @ 11.8 secs with swell 5.1 ft @ 12.4 secs from 306 degrees. Wind east at 2-4 kts (46026) and west at 8-9 kts (1801589). Water temp NA (Bodega Bay 46013), 59.0 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 56.3 (San Francisco 46026), 56.3 (SF Bar 142), 58.1 (1801589) and NA (Monterey Bay 46042).

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Saturday (12/2) in North and Central CA waves were up to head high on the sets and lined up and clean but soft and mushed with alot of warble in the water. Protected breaks were shoulder high and lined up with decent form and clean but soft. At Santa Cruz surf was waist high or so on the sets and lined up and real clean but very soft and weak. In Southern California/Ventura waves were waist to chest high and lined up with good form and real clean with no wind but generally soft. Central Orange County had sets at waist to chest high and lined up with decent form but pretty warbled from south wind early. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets at thigh high and lined up and clean but very soft. North San Diego had sets at waist high and soft and mushed but clean early. Oahu's North Shore had waves at waist to chest high and lined up and super clean but soft and inconsistent. The South Shore was near flat and clean with intermixed east warble. The East Shore was getting east windswell at thigh to waist high and moderately textured from modest east trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Saturday (12/2) generic Gulf windswell was hitting exposed breaks in California. Hawaii was getting no swell of interest. Ar gale is to develop off Kamchatka tracking east Wed-Thurs (11/30) with up to 44 ft seas aimed east barely making it to the dateline. The smallest of energy from that system is starting to hit Hawaii. A small gale developed in the Northern Gulf on Thurs-Fri (12/1) with 30 ft seas over a tiny area aimed southeast. A gale was developing in the Western Gulf forecast to track east Sat-Sun (12/3) producing 38 ft seas aimed southeast. And yet a stronger system is to develop while moving east through the Central Gulf Sun-Mon (12/4) producing up to 45 ft seas aimed east. And yet maybe another is possible developing over the North Dateline region Sat (12/9) pushing southeast producing 34 ft seas aimed well at the Islands. The El Nino base state is slowly and steadily starting to become productive.

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

Overview
Jetstream
On Saturday (12/2) the jet was consolidated pushing east-northeast off Japan with winds to 190 kts reaching to the dateline then weakening but continuing consolidated east-northeast to a point off Vancouver Island with winds 120 kts forming a weak trough in the Northwestern Gulf offering support for gale development. The jet was impacting Oregon producing weather there. Over the next 72 hours the Northwestern Gulf trough is to track east moving inland over British Columbia on Sun (12/3) supporting gale development and weather over land. And a new stronger trough is to be developing in the Western Gulf on Sun (12/3) being fed by 170 kts winds pushing east into the Central Gulf on Tues (12/5) and fading some but still quite obvious as a trough. Good support for gale development is expected. Beyond 72 hours starting Thurs (12/7) the jet is to split some over Japan but with most energy tracking east on the 37N latitude line pushing the whole way cross the Pacific with winds 120-130 kts in multiple pockets moving over Cape Mendocino with a trough developing just west of the dateline moving to a point just north of HAwaii on Sat (12/9) offering support for gale development. The jet is to remain split half way to the dateline with some energy peeling off to the north moving well up into the Bering Sea with a weaker flow east of there.

Surface Analysis
On Saturday (12/2) no swell was hitting California but tiny swell from a gale previously off the Kuril Islands was starting to hit Hawaii and bound for the US West Coast but very inconsistent (see Kuril Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours swell from a tiny gale in the Northern Gulf was propagating towards mostly North and Central CA (see Tiny North Gulf Gale below). Another gale is forecast developing while tracking through the Central Gulf (see Central Gulf Gale below). And yet a stronger gale/storm is forecast for the Central Gulf (see Possible Storm #3 below). This is starting to look like an El Nino pattern.

Central Gulf Gale
On Fri PM (12/1) a new gale started developing in the Northwestern Gulf with 35-40 kt west winds and seas building from 26 ft at 45N 172.25W aimed east. On Sat AM (12/2) the gale upgraded to storm status with 55 kt west winds and seas 38 ft at 46.5N 161.75W aimed east. as tracking east In the evening the storm is to continue east with 50 kt west winds and seas 38 ft at 48.25N 152.75W aimed east. On Sun AM (12/3) the gale is to be fading with 40 kt west winds over a solid area off North British Columbia with seas 38 ft at 50N 144W aimed east. The gael is to fade just off the Central Canadian Coast in the evening.

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Monday (12/4) evening (after dark) peaking around midnight at 7.8 ft @ 16-17 secs (12.5 ft) and shadowed in the SF Bay Area. Swell fading Tues AM (12/5) from 6.7 ft @ 15-16 secs early (10.0 ft). Swell fading through the day. Swell Direction: 300-310 degrees

Possible Storm #3
A stronger gale is starting to develop just west of the dateline Sat AM (12/2) with 35 kt northwest winds and seas starting to build. In the evening the gale is to be crossing the dateline producing 45-50 kt northwest winds and seas building from 24 ft at 40N 179W aimed east. On Sun AM (12/3) winds are to be building fast to storm status at 55+ kts from the northwest moving into the Western Gulf with 41 ft seas at 42N 167.25W aimed southeast. In the evening the gale is to be in the Central Gulf with 50-55 kt northwest winds and seas building to 45 ft at 43.5N 159.5W aimed southeast. The gale is to be lifting gently northeast Mon AM (12/4) with 45 kt northwest winds and seas 44 ft at 43.75N 150W aimed east. In the evening the gael is to be fading with 35-40 kt northwest winds filling the Northern Gulf and seas 37 ft at 46.5N 142.25W aimed east. On Tues AM (12/5) the gale is to slowly be fading with 30-35 kts northwest winds filling the Northern Gulf with seas fading from 29-30 ft at 49.5N 135.25W just off Vancouver Island aimed southeast but 20+ ft seas covering a large area aimed southeast. Fetch fading in the evening from 30 kts from the northwest with 23 ft seas fading over a large area at 50N 137W. The gale is to fade out from there. Fairly impressive if it develops as forecast. Possible significant class swell to result. Something to monitor.

Kuril Gale
A broad system built while pushing off the Kuril Islands on Wed AM (11/29) with 45 kt west winds and seas 26 ft at 47.5N 161.5E aimed east. In the evening fetch rapidly built to 55 kts pushing east half way to the dateline with seas 41 ft at 49.75N 168E aimed east. Thurs AM (11/30) fetch faded from the west at 45 kts just south of the Central Aleutians with seas 41 ft at 51N 176E aimed east. In the evening fetch was fading from 35 kts over a broadish area on the North Dateline with seas 29-30 ft at 50N 174W aimed east. On Fri AM (12/1) residual fetch was fading from 30 kts on the North Dateline region with seas fading from 25 ft at 50N 166W aimed east. The gale faded out from there. Maybe some longer period swell to result for Hawaii starting Fri (12/3) and Sat (12/4) for the US West Coast (but small).

Oahu: Expect swell building on Sat (12/2) to 1.9 ft @ 19 secs late (3.5 ft). Swell building on Sun (12/3) to 3.8 ft @ 15 secs mid-day (5.5 ft). Swell fading on Mon (12/4) from 4.2 ft @ 13-14 (5.5 ft). Swell Direction: 320 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival late Sun (12/3) at 1.0 ft @ 20 secs (2.0 ft). Swell building Mon (12/4) to 2.8 ft @ 16 secs later (4.5 ft). Swell becoming absorbed in other swell beyond). Swell Direction: 307-308 degrees

Tiny North Gulf Gale
A small gale started developing in the Northwestern Gulf Thurs AM (11/40) producing 35-40 kts west winds over a decent sized area with seas building from 23 ft at 49N 164W aimed east. In the evening west winds built to 45 kts in the Northern Gulf with seas 30 ft over a tiny area at 53N 153W aimed east. On Fri AM (12/1) west winds were fading from 35 kts over a small area aimed east with seas 29 ft over a tiny area at 53N 144.5W aimed east with 26 ft seas at 50N 147W aimed east. Fetch faded out in the evening with seas fading from 23 ft at 50N 140W aimed east. Small swell is radiating southeast.

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Sun (12/3) building to 6.2 ft @ 14 secs mid-day (8.5 ft). Swell fading Mon (12/4) from 5.6 ft @ 12-13 secs (7.0 ft). Swell Direction: 303 degrees

Sun AM (12/3) light winds are forecast for most of North and Central CA early but northwest 10-15 kts south of Monterey Bay and south 15-20 kts for North Cape Mendocino. In the afternoon no real change is forecast. Rain expected for all of North CA down to Pt Reyes early fading some through the day. Light snow for the higher elevations limited to Tahoe and only early.
Mon AM (12/4) more of the same early with south winds 15 kts for Cape Mendocino but calm from Pt Arena south to Monterey Bay and northwest 10-15 kts south of there. No change in the afternoon. Rain limited to northern Cape Mendocino holding through the day. .
Tues AM (12/5) south winds to be 15-20 kts for Cape Mendocino and northwest winds 5-10 kts for North CA down to Santa Cruz and 10-15 kts south of Monterey Bay early. In the afternoon south winds to be 15 kts for North Cape Mendocino but northwest 5-10 kts for the rest of North and Central CA. No precip forecast.
Wed AM (12/6) south winds to be 15 kts for Cape Mendocino but otherwise northwest at 5-10 kts for the rest of North and Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 5 kts for North CA and northwest 5-10 kts for Central CA. Rain for Cape Mendocino early pushing south to Pigeon Point late afternoon the quickly clearing.
Thurs AM (12/7) northwest winds to be 5-10 kts for North CA early and building to 15 kts from Santa Cruz southward. In the afternoon weak high pressure takes over with northwest winds 10 kts for North CA but 15-20 kts from Bodega Bay southward. No precip except for Cape Mendocino well after dark.
Fri AM (12/8) high pressure arrives with northwest winds 15 kts for all of North and Central CA early and 20-25 kts just offshore North CA. In the afternoon northwest winds arrive fully at 25 kts for all of North and Central CA and also Southern CA. Rain for all of North CA early building south to San Diego in the late afternoon. A short burst of snow for the Sierra at sunset.
Sat AM (12/9) northwest winds continue at 20-25 kts for all of California. No precip forecast.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at 8, 10, 2, and 0 inches respectively with most on Sat PM (12/2) and a little more Wed-Thurs (12/7).

Freeze Level for Tahoe Ski Resorts: Freeze Level 5,500 ft early Sat (12/2) rising by afternoon and beyond up to 10,500 ft 12/4-12.6 falling to 4,000 ft briefly on 12/7 then quickly rebuilding to about 9.000 ft on 12/9 and holding beyond.

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Overview
Surface Analysis
No swell of interest coming from the Southern Hemisphere was hitting Hawaii or California. Summer is over.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

Beyond 72 hours yet another gale is forecast developing over the North Dateline region Sat AM (12/6) with 45 kt northwest winds and 29 ft at 47.5N 169.75W aimed southeast. In the evening the gale is to fall southeast with 45 kt northwest winds on the dateline and seas 34 ft at 45.25N 173.75E aimed southeast targeting Hawaii well. Something to monitor.

El Nino Steadily Building
Kelvin Waves #7 Building - NINO3.4 SST Anomalies Reflect a Strong El Nino
1 Kelvin Wave traversed the Pacific in Dec '22 with a 2nd in Jan-Feb and a 3rd and 4th in March-April, a 5th in May and a 6th in August. But after the last Active MJO in mid-to-late May (resulting in Kevin Wave #5), the MJO stalled. Finally the Active Phase restarted in later July Producing Kelvin Wave #6 which is erupting off Ecuador now. Another Active Phase of the MJO and 3 associated Westerly Wind Bursts developed early Oct thru later Nov producing Kelvin Wave #7 which is pushing east now and poised to erupt in the next month. All these Active MJO/Kevin Wave pairs are backfilling warm water off Ecuador and helping push the atmosphere towards El Nino. And El Nino is finally starting to be evident in the atmosphere as evidenced by the SOI, OLR. ocean current, and wind anomalies.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023.

Rationale: A 3 year La Nina started fading in Jan 2023 and was gone by April. 6 Active MJO's produced 6 Kelvin Waves over early to mid 2023 with Kelvin Wave #7 in August building over the West Pacific and the 4th, 5th and 6th backed up off Ecuador now (10/20/23). The CFS model is predicting steady west anomalies from here forward and the leading edge of the low pressure bias moving over California now filling the Pacific. We are now under an El Nino status. We are moving into a period of enhanced storm production (starting late Sept 2023) and beyond, getting intense come late Fall and early Winter. This should result in an above normal level of swells, with swells being longer than normal duration from here forward as El Nino gets a stronger footprint on the atmosphere. The net result is a well above normal number of swells with above normal size and duration (i.e 15 significant class swells perhaps). Last year there were 0 and year before 5 or less.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (12/1) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the East equatorial Pacific and moderate east over the Central Pacific and mixed light east and west over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the East equatorial Pacific and neutral over the Central Pacific and modest west over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (12/2) East anomalies were modest over far West KWGA and West in a thin strip just west of the dateline and east east of there. The forecast indicates east anomalies are hold lightly over the KWGA till 12/5 then dissipate quickly with west anomalies returning 12/6 building in strength and coverage reaching strong status on the dateline 12/9 and building through the end of the model run on 12/18. East anomalies are to dissipate in the Indian Ocean on 12/3 and not returning until 12/15 (Indian Ocean Dipole).

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (12/1) The Inactive Phase of the MJO (dry air/cloud free skies) was modest over the KWGA today. The statistic model indicates the Inactive MJO (dry air/cloud free skies) is to hold on day 5 of the model run and then dissipating on day 10 with the Active MJO (wet air and clouds) developing and building filling the KWGA on day 15. The dynamic model depicts the same thing but with the Active Phase (wet air/cloudy skies) far weaker on day 15.
Phase Diagrams - 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (12/2) The statistical model depicts the Active signal was weak over the East Indian Ocean today. The forecast indicates it is to move to the West Pacific 15 days out and weak. The dynamic model indicates the Active signal tracking east over the West Pacific reaching the East Pacific 2 weeks out and weak.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (12/2) A solid Active MJO pattern (wet air) was indicated over the KWGA today. The forecast has strong Active signal (wet air) pushing through the KWGA through 12/17. Then another Inactive (dry air) pattern sets up moving east over the KWGA 12/22 filling the KWGA through 1/6. On the last day of the model run 1/11 a weak wet air pattern returns to the far West KWGA.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (12/1) Today the Inactive Phase of the MJO was on it's last legs over the KWGA with east anomalies filling 70% of the KWGA. East anomalies and the Inactive MJO are forecast mostly gone by 12/5 with west anomalies and the Active Phase of the MJO returning to the KWGA 12/6 and filling the KWGA through the end of model run on 12/29 with west anomalies getting strong on the dateline starting 12/8 and holding beyond. Of note: Moderate east anomalies started building over the Indian Ocean on 9/2 holding at strong status 11/15 then moderating starting 11/21. They are forecast to get modest 12/1-12/12 as the Active Phase passes over that area then returning to strong status through the end of the model run. That coupled with strong west anomalies in the West Pacific suggest massively falling air occurring near 120E (Maritime Continent), likely the downward branch of the Walker Circulation. The Indian Ocean Dipole is currently strong positive and building (the falling branch of the Walker Circulation). We're into a real El Nino pattern according to this model.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (12/2) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today the Inactive Phase and east anomalies were building over the KWGA and forecast holding to 12/15. But west anomalies are to start building in the KWGA on 12/10 with the Active Phase developing 12/8 holding filling the KWGA through 1/15. After that a weak Inactive Phase develops 12/29 in the far west KWGA and filling it through 2/9 with east anomalies over the Western half of the KWGA starting Jan 1st and west anomalies over the western half. Perhaps another Active Phase to develop 2/1 holding through the end of the mode run on 3/1 but with only weak west anomalies over the dateline. Note: East anomalies started building at 70E (West Indian Ocean) on 9/7 and peaked 10/10-11/5 and are to hold into 11/29, then moderating while pushing hard east on 1/8-2/1 into the West KWGA then dissipating. This strong east and west anomaly pattern looks very much like falling air centered over the Maritime Continent (120E) associated with the downward branch of the Walker Circulation/+IOD. Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) suggests cloud activity took over the KWGA weakly on 6/24 and started building in earnest then more solid starting Sept 15, It started building strongly on 10/16 and is continuing to build, strongly starting on 11/1 and continuing today. It is forecast building strongly from here forward while easing east to 140W on 1/11 then holding through the end of the model run. Conversely clear skies started building over the Maritime Continent in mid-May and have continued solidifying today and are forecast building to Jan 2, then fading while moving east to 150E in early January. This also suggests a rising air pattern associated with the upward branch of the Walker Circulation developing today on the dateline and moving east to 140W in January. The low pass filter indicates a broad low pressure bias is established over the KWGA centered at 175W with a 4th contour line (starting 11/5). The fourth contour line is to dissipate on 2/25. The high pressure bias started to build over the Maritime Continent on 10/2. A second high pressure contour has faded from the model. It appears a strong El Nino is finally starting to develop in a classical sense and is to move east over the next 3 months.

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (12/2) Today in the far West Pacific the leading edge of the 30 deg isotherm was steady at 163W (previously 169W). The 29 degree isotherm was backtracking from 150W to 154W. The 28 deg isotherm line was backtracking from 130W to 138W. The 24 degree isotherm extended the whole way across the Pacific and deeper at 42m (25m earlier but at one point down to 65m). Anomaly wise, warm anomalies at +2 deg C started in the far West Pacific at 174E associated with newly developing Kelvin Wave #7 with a building core of up to +5 degs anomalies centered at 155W pushing east in a continuous stream (at +3 degs) feeding into Kelvin Wave #6 and other previous Kelvin Waves that have formed a broad pocket of +4-5 degs anomalies over the East Pacific starting at 140W pushing into Ecuador. The warm pool in the east is discharging to the surface while being backfilled by more warm water/Kelvin Wave #7 and growing in coverage some. The leading edge of Kelvin Wave #7 is at 140W per TAO. There's about 3 months of warm water backed up off the Ecuadorian Coast with a stream of warm water backfilling into it per TAO. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 11/24 indicates +1-2 degs anomalies starting at 170E and over a large section of the subsurface equatorial Pacific (Kelvin Wave #7) and building while tracking east with 3 deg anomalies from 170W with embedded +4 deg anomalies and points east of there and +4-5 degs anomalies from 130W and points east of there originating from Kelvin Waves #6, #5 and #4 erupting into Ecuador. A thin stream of +0.5 degree anomalies were falling off the Maritime Continent merging with the preexisting warm stream. The leading edge of Kelvin Wave #7 was indicated at 125W per GODAS. A steady flow of warm water tracking east from the Maritime Continent. No cool anomalies were indicated. El Nino is developing. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (11/24) Sea heights were positive across the equatorial Pacific starting at 170E (previously 165E) at +0-5 cms extending east into Ecuador. 10 cm anomalies covered from 175W to 120W (Kelvin Wave #7) with +5 cm anomalies to 100W and positive anomalies into Ecuador. Positive anomalies also extended north into Central America and south to Peru. This means no cool water was at depth. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (11/24) warm water is building at +0.5 degs from 172E to Ecuador with a pocket of +1.0-2.5 deg anomalies between 179W to 103W and building. The leading edge of Kelvin Wave #7 per this chart is at 103W. The full development of El Nino is starting with cooler water developing over the West Pacific and warm water building in the east and pushing east with a new Kelvin Wave in flight. But the demise of the warm pool in the west signals an eventual turn to La Nina (sometime next year).

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (12/1) The latest images depict a strong warm stream from Ecuador uniformly covering the area on the equator from Ecuador to the dateline. Pockets of stronger warming were again have disappeared off Ecuador as east anomalies are again buffeting them. The warm pool is looking solid and consistent from Ecuador to the dateline and building. Heat also extends north up to Southern Baja and south down into Central Chile. There is a very clear El Nino signal with the classic El Nino triangle in-place and building towards a strong status.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (12/1): A thin stream of cooling was again developing on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos out to 120W. But in general a warming trend has been well entrenched over the East Pacific since Nov 1 2022 with no cooling waters over the equatorial East Pacific since 12/15.
Hi-res Overview: (12/1) Warmer than normal waters are filling the Equatorial Pacific from Ecuador to the dateline and building in intensity while extending north up to Mexico and south to Chile. The classic El Nino tongue of more intense warming is building considerably over the equator west to the dateline. Everything is now looking like El Nino.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (12/2) (The official OISST temp record runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps are falling some at +1.262 after building to +1.715 (11/27) and down at +1.0630 (11/20) after being at +1.657 (11/13) and up to +2.001 (11/6-11/10) then generally steady in the +1.9 degs range 9/28-11/9. Previous temps were down at +1.755 (10/22), down to +1.527 (10/6), up to +2.10 (9/17) and have been falling since 8/31 when they were up to +3.073 after rising to +3.164 (8/18) after being up to +2.925 on 8/10 after rising at +3.074 degs (8/7) after being up to +3.391 (on 7/20) and had been rising from +2.906 (starting 7/3) rising from +2.451 after peaking at +2.7926 on 6/13 and have been up in the +2.0 to +3.0 degs range since 4/1 having previously peaked at +2.891 (4/13). Previously temps reached +2.302 degrees on 4/6, +1.732 degs (3/22), up from +0.462 since 2/28. Temps had reached as high as +1.076 on 2/19 and were previously steady at +0.848 since 2/7. Previously they started steadily rising 11/13 when they were around -1.5 degs C.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (12/2) (OISST runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were steady at +1.488 after being up to +1.717 (11/22) after falling into +1.236 (11/16) after being up to +1.449 on 11/2 and +1.300 on 10/20 after falling down to +1.149 (10/11). Weekly OISST are up to +2.1 (week of 11/22 - the highest so far), up to +1.9 the week before and +1.8 degs (previous 2 weeks). Anomalies were +1.6 the previous 2 weeks (10/18 & 1025), +1.5 the 3 weeks previous (through 10/11) after being up to +1.7 degs the week before and +1.6 degs 3 weeks in a row prior (starting 8/30) putting us in minimal strong El Nino status. Temps first time above +1.0 degs was on 8/7 after being up to +0.967 (8/1) up from +0.873 degs (7/25) after peaking at +0.985 (7/18). Previously temps were rising slightly at +0.882 (7/9) after being steady at +0.794 4-5 days and that after being steady at +0.895 (3 days near 6/25) after being in the +0.712 range the previous 9 days after previously rising to +0.975 on 6/9. We are now 31 days into a trend of being above the El Nino threshold (for the 2nd time). Temps reached the El Nino threshold for the first time on 5/17 at +0.507 then quickly fell over the next 10 days down to +0.378 (5/26). Previous peaks of +0.318 on 4/30 besting the previous peak at +0.199 on 4/21. Temps have been steadily increasing hitting 0.0 on 4/12 and were then more or less steady the previous 4 weeks. Temps previously rose to -0.402 on 2/23. Temps rose above the La Nina threshold (-0.5 degs) on 2/22 and had been rising slowly since 2/12 when they were about -1.0 degs C. They had been in the -1.0 deg range since at least Nov 2022.

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps bottomed out at at -1.25 degs in early Nov 2020, up to -0.01 degs in mid-June 2021 then fading to -1.05 degs in mid-Nov then rebuilding to -0.7 in mid Feb 2022 then fading to -1.1 degs in May before starting an upward climb peaking in mid-June at -0.65 degs and mid July at -0.55 degs. A steady decline set in after that falling to -1.00 degs in Aug and Sept rising to -0.8 degs mid Oct then falling to -1.0 in Nov but then slowly rising to -0.75 degs in Jan 2023 and up to -0.5 degs (above the La Nina threshold) on 2/12. Temps rose to +0.50 degs mid-May and were at +0.9 degs in mid-June, and +1.05 mid July reaching up to +1.30 degs early Aug, +1.6 degs in Sept holding in Oct and , +1.95 in Nov.
Forecast (12/2) - Temps to are to fade to +1.75 degs into early Dec, then rising to +1.80 degs in mid- Jan and solidly in strong El Nino territory before starting a steady fade thereafter. The PDF Corrected forecast suggests temps are forecast falling to +1.60 degs in mid-Dec and holding at +1.60 degs in Jan before starting to fall. According to this version of the model we are building into a mid to upper level strong El Nino.
IRI Consensus Plume: The November 20, 2023 Plume (all models) depicts temps are +1.897 degs today and it's the 8th month above the La Nina threshold. Temps to rise steadily from here forward up to +1.839 degrees in December (that's a 3 months running mean) then fading from there. The dynamic model suggest temps peaking at +2.014 in Nov/Dec/Jan and are forecast at +2.016 in Dec/Jan/Feb before falling while the statistic models show +1.647 Nov/Dec/Jan and +1.462 degrees Dec/Jan/Feb before falling. The dynamic models are running a bit hotter than the statistic models and are likely more accurate. The CFS model is on the low end of the dynamic model range with 7 of 17 models above +2.0 degrees.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (12/2) the Daily Index was rising at+12.30 and has been positive the previous 3 days. It has been hanging near neutral since 11/25 but was negative 5 days previous, neutral for 2 days then negative the previous 12 days, Previously they were toggling between weakly positive and negative for 12 days (starting 10/24), but were solidly negative for 65 days prior (starting 9/16). It was positive the previous 7 days, then negative the previous 29 days (7/14-8/11) with a peak down to -37.30 on 7/25.The SOI has effectively been negative since 7/12. It was positive the previous 21 days then was negative 11 days prior and positive 5 days previous then negative for 27 days previous ending 6/6 with a peak down to -29.32 on 5/31, -64.63 on 5/24 and -31.31 on 5/12. Previously readings were toggling between +10 and -10 for 13 days, but negative the 15 days previous to that, positive the 6 days prior to that after being mostly negative 25 days before that. It fell to -19.40 on 4/2. -17.44 on 2/22, the beginning of a change from which no return seemed likely. It was up to +21.85 on 2/10 and +55.74 on 12/22 and were in the +20 range the previous 22 days.
The 30 day average was rising at -7.63 after being down to -10.43 on 11/16 and up to -5.75 on 11/5 and previously down to -15.70 on 9/23. It fell below the neutral point on 7/26. It rose above positive 7/3-7/25. It previously fell to -19.64 on 6/5 had been falling to -4.13 on 4/4 (lagging indicator driven by the Active Phase of the MJO) after falling to -0.52 on 3/22 previously falling to +4.18 on 11/27 and peaking at +21.57 (10/16) after supposedly peaking at +19.66 on 9/28. It was down to +6.89 on 7/29. It peaked at +20.34 (5/12) the highest in a year and beating last years high of +19.51 (1/14).
The 90 day average was rising some at -8.85 and turned negative the first time in years on 5/12. Recent max lows were -11.14 on 11/17, -11.85 on 10/15, -8.90 on 8/8 and -7.57 on 6/6. It previously peaked at +14.63 on 2/20, +15.61 on 10/25 and +12.92 on 8/11 and that after peaking at +18.40 (7/2) beating it's previous peak of +16.86 (5/31), the highest in a year. It previously peaked at +9.80 (9/21) after falling to it's lowest point in a year at +1.06 (6/9). The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 (2/23/21 - clearly indicative of La Nina then). This index is a lagging indicator but suggests that the Active Phase occurring now is starting to drive the index down, hopefully with no upward trend in sight for at least a year.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative ever since, driven by recent La Nina conditions. In May-July 2021 it was the most negative its been in the -1.80 to -2.04 range since Sept 2012 (-2.99) and then fell to -3.16 in Oct 2021 (the lowest since July 1933) then settled at -2.72 in Nov and Dec 2021. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.