Pacific Storm & Surf Forecast (Stormsurf)

Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt): Seas were 4.0 ft @ 15.4 secs with swell 3.2 ft @ 14.8 secs from 304 degrees. Water temp 78.8 (Barbers Pt), 77.7 (Pearl Harbor 233), NA (Lani 239).
Buoy 187 (Pauwela): Seas were 8.1 ft @ 14.3 secs with swell 6.1 ft @ 13.9 secs from 317 degrees. Water temp 78.6 degs
Buoy 106 (Waimea)/Buoy 202 (Hanalei): Seas were 6.4 ft @ 15.4 secs with swell 4.7 ft @ 15.1 secs from 320 degrees. Water temp 78.4 degs
Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 2.8 ft @ 7.7 secs with swell 1.2 ft @ 11.6 secs from 287 degrees. Wind northwest at 4-6 kts. Water temperature 63.3 degs, 59.4 (Harvest 071), 62.4 (Topanga 103), 62.8 (Long Beach 215), 62.2 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 61.3 (Del Mar 153), 63.1 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 4.7 ft @ 18.4 secs from 301 degrees. At E. Santa Barbara (46053) swell was 2.4 ft @ 12.2 secs from 277 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 0.7 ft @ 19.5 secs from 255 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.3 ft @ 9.2 secs from 266 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 2.0 ft @ 12.5 secs from 279 degrees. Water temperature was 62.4 degrees (Imperial Beach).
Buoy 029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 10.7 ft @ 12.5 secs with swell 5.5 ft @ 17.3 secs from 301 degrees. Wind northeast at 4-6 kts (46026) and north-northeast at 8-10 kts (1801589). Water temp NA (Bodega Bay 46013), 58.6 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 56.5 (San Francisco 46026), 56.3 (SF Bar 142), 58.1 (1801589) and NA (Monterey Bay 46042).

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Monday (12/4) in North and Central CA waves were 3 ft overhead and lined up and clean with decent form but inconsistent. Protected breaks were 1 ft overhead and super lined up and mostly closed out but clean. At Santa Cruz surf was 1 ft overhead and lined up and real clean with good form. In Southern California/Ventura waves were waist high and lined up and real clean with good form but soft and inconsistent. Central Orange County had sets at waist high and lined up with decent form and real clean with no wind early. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets at thigh high and lined up and clean but very soft. North San Diego had sets up to waist high on the peaks and soft but real clean early. Oahu's North Shore had waves at 2-3 ft overhead and lined up and clean but inconsistent. The South Shore was thigh high and lined up and clean early. The East Shore was getting east windswell at waist high plus and lightly chopped from northeast trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Monday (12/4) Hawaii was getting the tail end of swell from a gale that developed off Kamchatka tracking east Wed-Thurs (11/30) with up to 44 ft seas aimed east barely making it to the dateline. California was starting to see this swell too mixed with swell from a small gale that developed in the Northern Gulf on Thurs-Fri (12/1) with 30 ft seas over a tiny area aimed southeast. Another gale developed in the Western Gulf tracking east Sat-Sun (12/3) producing 38 ft seas aimed southeast. That swell is tracking towards California. And yet a stronger system was moving east through the Central Gulf Sun-Mon (12/4) producing up to 45 ft seas aimed east. And yet maybe another is to possibly develop off Japan tracking southeast Fri-Sun (12/10) producing 33 ft seas aimed well at the Islands then dissolving on the dateline. The El Nino base state is slowly and steadily starting to grow roots.

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

Overview
Jetstream
On Monday (12/3) the jet was consolidated pushing east off Japan on the 36N latitude line reaching over the dateline and peaking north of Hawaii in the Gulf of Alaska with winds to 170 kts carving out a trough offering good support for gale development. East of there the jet jogged north some and was impacting Washington producing weather there. Over the next 72 hours the Gulf trough is to track east moving inland over the Pacific Northwest on Wed (12/6) no longer supporting gale formation but providing more weather for that region. Beyond 72 hours starting Thurs (12/7) the jet is to split some over Japan but with most energy tracking east on the 37N latitude line pushing the whole way cross the Pacific with winds 120-130 kts in 2 pockets with one moving over Cape Mendocino providing weather there and the second starting to form a trough just west of the dateline moving to a point just north of Hawaii on Sat (12/9) offering support for gale development and maybe some weather for the Islands. The jet is to remain split half way to the dateline with some energy peeling off to the north moving well up into the Bering Sea with a weaker flow east of there.

Surface Analysis
On Monday (12/3) swell was hitting California and Hawaii from a gale previously off the Kuril Islands (see Kuril Gale below) and mixed in California with swell from the Northern Gulf (see North Gulf Gale below). .

Over the next 72 hours another gale developed and has produced swell while tracking through the Central Gulf (see Central Gulf Gale below). And yet a stronger gale/storm is developing in the Central Gulf (see Storm #3 below). This is starting to look like an El Nino pattern.

Tiny North Gulf Gale
A small gale started developing in the Northwestern Gulf Thurs AM (11/40) producing 35-40 kts west winds over a decent sized area with seas building from 23 ft at 49N 164W aimed east. In the evening west winds built to 45 kts in the Northern Gulf with seas 30 ft over a tiny area at 53N 153W aimed east. On Fri AM (12/1) west winds were fading from 35 kts over a small area aimed east with seas 29 ft over a tiny area at 53N 144.5W aimed east with 26 ft seas at 50N 147W aimed east. Fetch faded out in the evening with seas fading from 23 ft at 50N 140W aimed east. Small swell is radiating southeast.

North CA: Swell fading Mon (12/4) from 5.6 ft @ 12-13 secs (7.0 ft). Swell Direction: 303 degrees

Kuril Gale
A broad system built while pushing off the Kuril Islands on Wed AM (11/29) with 45 kt west winds and seas 26 ft at 47.5N 161.5E aimed east. In the evening fetch rapidly built to 55 kts pushing east half way to the dateline with seas 41 ft at 49.75N 168E aimed east. Thurs AM (11/30) fetch faded from the west at 45 kts just south of the Central Aleutians with seas 41 ft at 51N 176E aimed east. In the evening fetch was fading from 35 kts over a broadish area on the North Dateline with seas 29-30 ft at 50N 174W aimed east. On Fri AM (12/1) residual fetch was fading from 30 kts on the North Dateline region with seas fading from 25 ft at 50N 166W aimed east. The gale faded out from there. Maybe some longer period swell to result for Hawaii starting Fri (12/3) and Sat (12/4) for the US West Coast (but small).

Oahu: Swell fading on Mon (12/4) from 4.2 ft @ 13-14 (5.5 ft). Swell Direction: 320 degrees

North CA: Swell building Mon (12/4) to 2.8 ft @ 16 secs later (4.5 ft). Swell becoming absorbed in other swell beyond. Swell Direction: 307-308 degrees

Central Gulf Gale
On Fri PM (12/1) a new gale started developing in the Northwestern Gulf with 35-40 kt west winds and seas building from 26 ft at 45N 172.25W aimed east. On Sat AM (12/2) the gale upgraded to storm status with 55 kt west winds and seas 38 ft at 46.5N 161.75W aimed east. In the evening the storm continued east with 50 kt west winds and seas 38 ft at 48.25N 152.5W aimed east. On Sun AM (12/3) the gale was fading with 40 kt west winds over a solid area off North British Columbia with seas 37 ft at 50N 144W aimed east. The gale faded just off the Central Canadian Coast in the evening.

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Monday (12/4) at sunset at 8.4 ft @ 18 secs (15 ft). Swell peaking around midnight at 9.5 ft @ 16-17 secs (15.5 ft) and shadowed in the SF Bay Area. Swell fading Tues AM (12/5) from 7.8 ft @ 15 secs early (11.5 ft). Swell fading through the day. Swell Direction: 300-310 degrees

Storm #3
A stronger gale started to develop just west of the dateline Sat AM (12/2) with 35 kt northwest winds and seas building. In the evening the gale upgraded to storm status with winds 50-55 kts from the northwest while crossing the dateline and seas building from 24 ft at 42.5N 179W aimed east. On Sun AM (12/3) winds were building fast at 55-60 kts from the northwest moving into the Western Gulf with 41 ft seas at 42N 167W aimed southeast. In the evening the gale was in the Central Gulf with 50-55 kt northwest winds and seas building to 43 ft at 43.5N 157.5W aimed southeast. The gale was lifting gently northeast Mon AM (12/4) with 45-50 kt northwest winds and seas 43 ft at 44.25N 149.75W aimed east. In the evening the gale is to be fading with 35-40 kt northwest winds filling the Northern Gulf and seas 37 ft at 46.75N 142.25W aimed east. On Tues AM (12/5) the gale is to slowly be fading with 30-35 kts northwest winds filling the Northern Gulf with seas fading from 29-30 ft at 50N 135.75W just off Vancouver Island aimed southeast but with 20+ ft seas covering a large area aimed southeast. Fetch fading in the evening from 30 kts from the northwest with 23 ft seas fading over a large area at 50N 137W. The gale is to fade out from there. This is shaping up to be a fairly impressive system. Possible significant class swell to result. Something to monitor.

Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Monday (12/4) well after dark with period 18 secs and size building. Swell to peak Tues AM (12/5) at 7.4 ft @ 15-16 secs (11.5 ft) and holding decently through the day. Swell fading on Wed (12/6) from 6.2 ft @ 12-13 secs early (7.5 ft). Residuals on Thurs (12/7) fading from 3.5 ft @ 11-12 secs (4.0 ft). Swell Direction: 335 moving to 350 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Tuesday evening (12/5) well after sunset with period 18+ secs and size building. Swell peaking at sunrise Wed (12/6) at 11.7 ft @ 17 secs (20.0 ft). Swell fading some by Thurs AM (12/7) from 9.4 ft @ 14 secs (13 ft). Swell fading Fri AM (12/8) from 8.4 ft @ 12-13 secs (10 ft). Residuals Sat AM (12/9) fading from 5.9 ft @ 11-12 secs (6.5 ft). Swell Direction: 292-296 moving to 309 degrees later.

Tues AM (12/5) south winds to be 15-20 kts for Cape Mendocino and northwest winds 5-10 kts for North CA down to Santa Cruz and 10-15 kts south of Monterey Bay early. In the afternoon south winds to be 15-20 kts for North Cape Mendocino but northwest 5 kts for the rest of North and Central CA. No precip forecast.
Wed AM (12/6) south winds to be 15 kts for Cape Mendocino and 10 kts to San Francisco with a weak front embedded but northwest at 5-10 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon the front is to push through CA with northwest winds 15 kts for North CA and northwest 10-15 kts for Central CA. Rain for Cape Mendocino early pushing south to Big Sur in the afternoon the quickly clearing. A quick burst of snow for the Sierra late afternoon.
Thurs AM (12/7) northwest winds to be 5-10 kts for North CA early and building to 15-20 kts from Santa Cruz southward. In the afternoon weak high pressure takes over with northwest winds 10-15 kts for North CA but 15-20 kts from Pigeon Point southward. No precip except for Cape Mendocino during the day.
Fri AM (12/8) high pressure builds with northwest winds 5 kts for Cape mendocino but 15-20 kts for the rest of North CA and 20-25 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon no change is forecast. No precip forecast.
Sat AM (12/9) northwest winds fade at 10 kts for North CA and north at 10-15 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 5 kts for North CA and northwest 15-20 kts for Central CA. No precip forecast except for Cape Mendocino. .
Sun AM (12/10) northwest winds to be 10 kts for North CA and 15 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon no change is forecast. No precip forecast.
Mon AM (12/11) weak high pressure hold with northwest winds 10-15 kts early for all of north and Central CA early. No change in the afternoon. Rain for Cape Mendocino later.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at 8, 8, 6, and 1 inches respectively with most on Wed (12/6) then a little more on Wed (12/13). .

Freeze Level for Tahoe Ski Resorts: Freeze Level 10,500 ft Tues (12/5) falling to 3,500 ft 12/7 then quickly rebuilding to about 9.000 ft on 12/8 up to 10,000 ft on 12/9 and 12,000 ft on 12/11 then falling.

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Overview
Surface Analysis
No swell of interest coming from the Southern Hemisphere was hitting Hawaii or California. Summer is over.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

Beyond 72 hours yet another gale is forecast developing east of Japan and half way to the dateline Sat AM (12/6) with 40-45 kt northwest winds and seas 33 ft at 41.75N 168E aimed southeast. In the evening the gale is to fall southeast with 40-45 kt northwest winds approaching the dateline and seas 33 ft at 40N 173.25E aimed southeast targeting Hawaii well. On Sun AM (12/10) the gale is to be on the dateline with 40 kt northwest winds over a modest area with seas 35 ft at 39.25N 179.5E aimed southeast. The gael is to be fading just east of the dateline in the evening with 30-35 kts west winds and seas 28 ft at 37.75N 175.75W aimed southeast. This gale to possibly redevelop while moving into the Gulf on Tues (12/12). Something to monitor.

El Nino Steadily Building
Kelvin Waves #7 Building - NINO3.4 SST Anomalies Reflect a Strong El Nino
1 Kelvin Wave traversed the Pacific in Dec '22 with a 2nd in Jan-Feb and a 3rd and 4th in March-April, a 5th in May and a 6th in August. But after the last Active MJO in mid-to-late May (resulting in Kevin Wave #5), the MJO stalled. Finally the Active Phase restarted in later July Producing Kelvin Wave #6 which is erupting off Ecuador now. Another Active Phase of the MJO and 3 associated Westerly Wind Bursts developed early Oct thru later Nov producing Kelvin Wave #7 which is pushing east now and poised to erupt in the next month. All these Active MJO/Kevin Wave pairs are backfilling warm water off Ecuador and helping push the atmosphere towards El Nino. And El Nino is finally starting to be evident in the atmosphere as evidenced by the SOI, OLR. ocean current, and wind anomalies.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023.

Rationale: A 3 year La Nina started fading in Jan 2023 and was gone by April. 6 Active MJO's produced 6 Kelvin Waves over early to mid 2023 with Kelvin Wave #7 in August building over the West Pacific and the 4th, 5th and 6th backed up off Ecuador now (10/20/23). The CFS model is predicting steady west anomalies from here forward and the leading edge of the low pressure bias moving over California now filling the Pacific. We are now under an El Nino status. We are moving into a period of enhanced storm production (starting late Sept 2023) and beyond, getting intense come late Fall and early Winter. This should result in an above normal level of swells, with swells being longer than normal duration from here forward as El Nino gets a stronger footprint on the atmosphere. The net result is a well above normal number of swells with above normal size and duration (i.e 15 significant class swells perhaps). Last year there were 0 and year before 5 or less.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (12/3) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the East equatorial Pacific and moderate east over the Central Pacific and mixed light east and west over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the East equatorial Pacific and neutral over the Central Pacific and weak west over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (12/4) East anomalies were modest over the KWGA today. The forecast indicates east anomalies are hold lightly over the KWGA through 12/6 then dissipate quickly with west anomalies returning 12/7 building in strength and coverage reaching strong status 12/7 and building in coverage through the end of the model run on 12/19. East anomalies are to dissipate in the Indian Ocean on 12/9 and not returning until 12/17 (Indian Ocean Dipole) but much weaker.

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (12/3) The Inactive Phase of the MJO (dry air/cloud free skies) was modest over the KWGA today. The statistic model indicates the Inactive MJO (dry air/cloud free skies) is to start collapsing on day 5 of the model run and then dissipating with a modest Active MJO (wet air and clouds) developing and building filling the KWGA on day 15. The dynamic model depicts the same thing but with the Active Phase (wet air/cloudy skies) a bit stronger on day 15.
Phase Diagrams - 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (12/4) The statistical model depicts the Active signal was weak over the East Indian Ocean today. The forecast indicates it is to move to the West Pacific 15 days out and weak. The dynamic model indicates the same thing.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (12/4) A solid Active MJO pattern (wet air) was indicated over the KWGA today. The forecast has strong Active signal (wet air) pushing through the KWGA through 12/14. Then another Inactive (dry air) pattern sets up moving east over the KWGA 12/19 filling the KWGA through 1/6. On the last day of the model run 1/13 a building wet air pattern returns to the far West KWGA.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (12/3) Today the Inactive Phase of the MJO was hanging on the dateline and points east of there with east anomalies filling 60% of the KWGA. East anomalies and the Inactive MJO are forecast mostly gone by 12/6 with west anomalies and the Active Phase of the MJO returning to the KWGA and filling the KWGA through the end of model run on 12/31 with west anomalies getting very strong on the dateline starting 12/11 and holding through at least 12/21 and still strong beyond. Of note: Moderate east anomalies started building over the Indian Ocean on 9/2 holding at strong status 11/15 then moderating starting 11/21. They are forecast to get modest 12/1-12/12 as the Active Phase passes over that area then returning to strong status through the end of the model run. That coupled with strong west anomalies in the West Pacific suggest massively falling air occurring near 120E (Maritime Continent), likely the downward branch of the Walker Circulation. The Indian Ocean Dipole is currently strong positive and building (the falling branch of the Walker Circulation). We're into a real El Nino pattern according to this model.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (12/4) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today the Inactive Phase and east anomalies were building over the KWGA and forecast holding to 12/15. But west anomalies are to appears and start building in the KWGA on 12/6 with the Active Phase developing 12/8 holding while filling the KWGA through 1/5 with strong west anomalies 12/13-1/2. After that the Inactive Phase develops 12/26 in the far west KWGA and filling it through 1/29 with east anomalies over the Western half of the KWGA starting Jan 1st and west anomalies over the western half. Perhaps another Active Phase to develop 1/17 holding through the end of the mode run on 3/2 but with only weak west anomalies over the dateline. Note: East anomalies started building at 70E (West Indian Ocean) on 9/7 and peaked 10/10-11/5 and are to hold into 11/29, then moderating while pushing hard east on 1/8-2/1 into the West KWGA then dissipating. This strong east and west anomaly pattern looks very much like falling air centered over the Maritime Continent (120E) associated with the downward branch of the Walker Circulation/+IOD. Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) suggests cloud activity took over the KWGA weakly on 6/24 and started building in earnest then more solid starting Sept 15, It started building strongly on 10/16 and is continuing to build, strongly starting on 11/1 and continuing today. It is forecast building strongly from here forward while easing east to 140W on 1/11 then holding through the end of the model run. Conversely clear skies started building over the Maritime Continent in mid-May and have continued solidifying today and are forecast building to Jan 2, then fading while moving east to 150E in early January. This also suggests a rising air pattern associated with the upward branch of the Walker Circulation developing today on the dateline and moving east to 140W in January. The low pass filter indicates a broad low pressure bias is established over the KWGA centered at 175W with a 4th contour line (starting 11/5). The fourth contour line is to dissipate on 2/25. The high pressure bias started to build over the Maritime Continent on 10/2. A second high pressure contour has faded from the model. It appears a strong El Nino is finally starting to develop in a classical sense and is to move east over the next 3 months.

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (12/4) Today in the far West Pacific the leading edge of the 30 deg isotherm was steady at 163W (previously 169W). The 29 degree isotherm was steady at 154W (previously 150W). The 28 deg isotherm line was backtracking from 130W to 138W. The 24 degree isotherm extended the whole way across the Pacific and deeper at 42m (25m earlier but at one point down to 65m). Anomaly wise, warm anomalies at +2 deg C started in the far West Pacific at 174E associated with newly developing Kelvin Wave #7 with a building core of up to +5 degs anomalies centered at 155W pushing east in a continuous stream (at +3 degs) feeding into Kelvin Wave #6 and other previous Kelvin Waves that have formed a broad pocket of +4-5 degs anomalies over the East Pacific starting at 136W pushing into Ecuador. The warm pool in the east is discharging to the surface while being backfilled by more warm water/Kelvin Wave #7 and growing in coverage some. The leading edge of Kelvin Wave #7 is at 125W per TAO. There's about 3 months of warm water backed up off the Ecuadorian Coast with a stream of warm water backfilling into it per TAO. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 11/29 indicates +1-2 degs anomalies starting at 170E and over a large section of the subsurface equatorial Pacific (Kelvin Wave #7) and building while tracking east with 3 deg anomalies from 170W with embedded +4 deg anomalies and points east of there and +4-5 degs anomalies from 130W and points east of there originating from Kelvin Waves #6, #5 and #4 erupting into Ecuador. A thin stream of +0.5 degree anomalies were falling off the Maritime Continent merging with the preexisting warm stream. The leading edge of Kelvin Wave #7 was indicated at 120W per GODAS. A steady flow of warm water tracking east from the Maritime Continent. No cool anomalies were indicated. El Nino is developing. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (11/29) Sea heights were positive across the equatorial Pacific starting at 170E (previously 165E) at +0-5 cms extending east into Ecuador. 10 cm anomalies covered the area from 170W to 122W (Kelvin Wave #7) with +5 cm anomalies to 100W and positive anomalies into Ecuador. Positive anomalies also extended north into Central America and south to Peru. This means no cool water was at depth. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (11/24) warm water is building at +0.5 degs from 172E to Ecuador with a pocket of +1.0-2.5 deg anomalies between 179W to 103W and building. The leading edge of Kelvin Wave #7 per this chart is at 100W. The full development of El Nino is starting with cooler water developing over the West Pacific and warm water building in the east and pushing east with a new Kelvin Wave in flight. But the demise of the warm pool in the west signals an eventual turn to La Nina (sometime next year).

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (12/3) The latest images depict a strong warm stream from Ecuador uniformly covering the area on the equator from Ecuador to the dateline. Pockets of stronger warming were again have disappeared off Ecuador as east anomalies are again buffeting them. The warm pool is looking solid and consistent from Ecuador to the dateline and building. Heat also extends north up to Southern Baja and south down into Central Chile. There is a very clear El Nino signal with the classic El Nino triangle in-place and building towards a strong status.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (12/3): A thin stream of cooling was shrinking on the equator from Ecuador to the Galapagos. But in general a warming trend has been well entrenched over the East Pacific since Nov 1 2022 with no cooling waters over the equatorial East Pacific since 12/15.
Hi-res Overview: (12/1) Warmer than normal waters are filling the Equatorial Pacific from Ecuador to the dateline and building in intensity while extending north up to Mexico and south to Chile. The classic El Nino tongue of more intense warming is building considerably over the equator west to the dateline. Everything is now looking like El Nino.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (12/4) (The official OISST temp record runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps are falling some at +0.934 after building to +1.715 (11/27) and down at +1.0630 (11/20) after being at +1.657 (11/13) and up to +2.001 (11/6-11/10) then generally steady in the +1.9 degs range 9/28-11/9. Previous temps were down at +1.755 (10/22), down to +1.527 (10/6), up to +2.10 (9/17) and have been falling since 8/31 when they were up to +3.073 after rising to +3.164 (8/18) after being up to +2.925 on 8/10 after rising at +3.074 degs (8/7) after being up to +3.391 (on 7/20) and had been rising from +2.906 (starting 7/3) rising from +2.451 after peaking at +2.7926 on 6/13 and have been up in the +2.0 to +3.0 degs range since 4/1 having previously peaked at +2.891 (4/13). Previously temps reached +2.302 degrees on 4/6, +1.732 degs (3/22), up from +0.462 since 2/28. Temps had reached as high as +1.076 on 2/19 and were previously steady at +0.848 since 2/7. Previously they started steadily rising 11/13 when they were around -1.5 degs C.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (12/4) (OISST runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were steady at +1.497 after being up to +1.717 (11/22) after falling into +1.236 (11/16) after being up to +1.449 on 11/2 and +1.300 on 10/20 after falling down to +1.149 (10/11). Weekly OISST are down at +2.0 degs after being up to +2.1 (week of 11/22 - the highest so far), then +1.9 the week before and +1.8 degs (previous 2 weeks). Anomalies were +1.6 the previous 2 weeks (10/18 & 1025), +1.5 the 3 weeks previous (through 10/11) after being up to +1.7 degs the week before and +1.6 degs 3 weeks in a row prior (starting 8/30) putting us in minimal strong El Nino status. Temps first time above +1.0 degs was on 8/7 after being up to +0.967 (8/1) up from +0.873 degs (7/25) after peaking at +0.985 (7/18). Previously temps were rising slightly at +0.882 (7/9) after being steady at +0.794 4-5 days and that after being steady at +0.895 (3 days near 6/25) after being in the +0.712 range the previous 9 days after previously rising to +0.975 on 6/9. We are now 31 days into a trend of being above the El Nino threshold (for the 2nd time). Temps reached the El Nino threshold for the first time on 5/17 at +0.507 then quickly fell over the next 10 days down to +0.378 (5/26). Previous peaks of +0.318 on 4/30 besting the previous peak at +0.199 on 4/21. Temps have been steadily increasing hitting 0.0 on 4/12 and were then more or less steady the previous 4 weeks. Temps previously rose to -0.402 on 2/23. Temps rose above the La Nina threshold (-0.5 degs) on 2/22 and had been rising slowly since 2/12 when they were about -1.0 degs C. They had been in the -1.0 deg range since at least Nov 2022.

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps bottomed out at at -1.25 degs in early Nov 2020, up to -0.01 degs in mid-June 2021 then fading to -1.05 degs in mid-Nov then rebuilding to -0.7 in mid Feb 2022 then fading to -1.1 degs in May before starting an upward climb peaking in mid-June at -0.65 degs and mid July at -0.55 degs. A steady decline set in after that falling to -1.00 degs in Aug and Sept rising to -0.8 degs mid Oct then falling to -1.0 in Nov but then slowly rising to -0.75 degs in Jan 2023 and up to -0.5 degs (above the La Nina threshold) on 2/12. Temps rose to +0.50 degs mid-May and were at +0.9 degs in mid-June, and +1.05 mid July reaching up to +1.30 degs early Aug, +1.6 degs in Sept holding in Oct and , +1.95 in Nov.
Forecast (12/4) - Temps to are to fade to +1.75 degs into early Dec, then rising to +1.80 degs in mid- Jan and solidly in strong El Nino territory before starting a steady fade thereafter. The PDF Corrected forecast suggests temps are forecast falling to +1.60 degs in mid-Dec and holding at +1.60 degs in Jan before starting to fall. According to this version of the model we are building into a mid to upper level strong El Nino.
IRI Consensus Plume: The November 20, 2023 Plume (all models) depicts temps are +1.897 degs today and it's the 8th month above the La Nina threshold. Temps to rise steadily from here forward up to +1.839 degrees in December (that's a 3 months running mean) then fading from there. The dynamic model suggest temps peaking at +2.014 in Nov/Dec/Jan and are forecast at +2.016 in Dec/Jan/Feb before falling while the statistic models show +1.647 Nov/Dec/Jan and +1.462 degrees Dec/Jan/Feb before falling. The dynamic models are running a bit hotter than the statistic models and are likely more accurate. The CFS model is on the low end of the dynamic model range with 7 of 17 models above +2.0 degrees.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (12/3) the Daily Index was falling slightly at -1.14 and have been mostly positive the previous 8 days (starting 11/25) but was negative 5 days previous, neutral for 2 days then negative the previous 12 days, Previously they were toggling between weakly positive and negative for 12 days (starting 10/24), but were solidly negative for 65 days prior (starting 9/16). It was positive the previous 7 days, then negative the previous 29 days (7/14-8/11) with a peak down to -37.30 on 7/25.The SOI has effectively been negative since 7/12. It was positive the previous 21 days then was negative 11 days prior and positive 5 days previous then negative for 27 days previous ending 6/6 with a peak down to -29.32 on 5/31, -64.63 on 5/24 and -31.31 on 5/12. Previously readings were toggling between +10 and -10 for 13 days, but negative the 15 days previous to that, positive the 6 days prior to that after being mostly negative 25 days before that. It fell to -19.40 on 4/2. -17.44 on 2/22, the beginning of a change from which no return seemed likely. It was up to +21.85 on 2/10 and +55.74 on 12/22 and were in the +20 range the previous 22 days.
The 30 day average was steady at -7.67 after being down to -10.43 on 11/16 and up to -5.75 on 11/5 and previously down to -15.70 on 9/23. It fell below the neutral point on 7/26. It rose above positive 7/3-7/25. It previously fell to -19.64 on 6/5 had been falling to -4.13 on 4/4 (lagging indicator driven by the Active Phase of the MJO) after falling to -0.52 on 3/22 previously falling to +4.18 on 11/27 and peaking at +21.57 (10/16) after supposedly peaking at +19.66 on 9/28. It was down to +6.89 on 7/29. It peaked at +20.34 (5/12) the highest in a year and beating last years high of +19.51 (1/14).
The 90 day average was steady at -8.83 and turned negative the first time in years on 5/12. Recent max lows were -11.14 on 11/17, -11.85 on 10/15, -8.90 on 8/8 and -7.57 on 6/6. It previously peaked at +14.63 on 2/20, +15.61 on 10/25 and +12.92 on 8/11 and that after peaking at +18.40 (7/2) beating it's previous peak of +16.86 (5/31), the highest in a year. It previously peaked at +9.80 (9/21) after falling to it's lowest point in a year at +1.06 (6/9). The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 (2/23/21 - clearly indicative of La Nina then). This index is a lagging indicator but suggests that the Active Phase occurring now is starting to drive the index down, hopefully with no upward trend in sight for at least a year.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative ever since, driven by recent La Nina conditions. In May-July 2021 it was the most negative its been in the -1.80 to -2.04 range since Sept 2012 (-2.99) and then fell to -3.16 in Oct 2021 (the lowest since July 1933) then settled at -2.72 in Nov and Dec 2021. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.