Pacific Storm & Surf Forecast (Stormsurf)

Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt): Seas were 3.6 ft @ 11.8 secs with swell 2.3 ft @ 11.8 secs from 314 degrees. Water temp 78.4 (Barbers Pt), 77.9 (Pearl Harbor 233), NA (Lani 239).
Buoy 187 (Pauwela): Seas were 11.5 ft @ 12.5 secs with swell 8.3 ft @ 9.4 secs from 124 degrees. Water temp 78.1 degs
Buoy 106 (Waimea)/Buoy 202 (Hanalei): Seas were 9.5 ft @ 13.3 secs with swell 5.0 ft @ 12.5 secs from 328 degrees. Water temp 77.4 degs
Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 2.0 ft @ 12.0 secs with swell 1.3 ft @ 11.3 secs from 260 degrees. Wind east at 6 kts. Water temperature 62.8 degs, 59.4 (Harvest 071), 61.7 (Topanga 103), 62.2 (Long Beach 215), 62.8 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 61.2 (Del Mar 153), 62.2 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 2.2 ft @ 8.6 secs from 284 degrees. At E. Santa Barbara (46053) swell was 1.6 ft @ 9.0 secs from 281 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.3 ft @ 9.5 secs from 266 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.2 ft @ 10.1 secs from 243 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 1.3 ft @ 10.3 secs from 265 degrees. Water temperature was 61.7 degrees (Imperial Beach).
Buoy 029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 3.6 ft @ 16.7 secs with swell 1.8 ft @ 17.0 secs from 289 degrees. Wind east at 14-16 kts (46026) and east-southeast at 7-8 kts (1801589). Water temp NA (Bodega Bay 46013), 58.6 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 56.7 (San Francisco 46026), 55.8 (SF Bar 142), 56.7 (1801589) and NA (Monterey Bay 46042).

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Thursday (12/14) in North and Central CA waves were waist high with rare chest high peaks and lined up and real clean with light offshore winds but very soft and mushed. Protected breaks had a few rare thigh high sets and clean but soft. At Santa Cruz surf was flat and clean. In Southern California/Ventura waves were flat and clean with light offshore wind. Central Orange County had sets at thigh to maybe waist high and real clean with no wind but breaking on the beach. South Orange County's best summertime breaks were flat and clean. North San Diego had some waves to thigh high and clean and soft. Oahu's North Shore had waves at 6-8 ft Hawaiian but a rumbled warbled mess from northerly wind and not rideable. The South Shore was flat and clean. The East Shore was getting northeast windswell at 1 ft overhead and trashed from strong northeast wind.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Thursday (12/14) Hawaii was still getting swell generated from a gale that developed off Japan tracking southeast Fri-Sun (12/10) producing 26-28 ft seas aimed well at the Islands then dissolving on the dateline mixed with copious local windswell. Remnants of that system tracked east through the Gulf Mon-Tues (12/12) producing 21 ft seas targeting primarily the US West Coast. That swell mixed with some energy from the Japan swell are to hit California later today (Thurs 12/14). Another gale developed in Central Gulf Wed (12/13) falling southeast producing 26 ft seas aimed well at the US West Coast and is to redevelop off Central CA on Fri-Sat (12/16) producing up to 33 ft seas but mostly aimed south. Another gale is forecast to developing in the Eastern Gulf Mon-Tues (12/19) falling southeast with seas to 31 ft aimed southeast. And a broader gale is forecast developing off Kamchatka tracking to the North Dateline region on Mon-Wed (12/20) producing 28-30 ft seas aimed east. So the swell pattern is to pick up some, but nothing large expected.

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

Overview
Jetstream
On Thursday (12/14) the jet was getting consolidated pushing east off Japan with winds to 150 kts forming a trough off Kamchatka starting to offer some support for gale formation. From there then jet split with most energy ridging hard north up into the East Bering Sea then falling hard south down into a somewhat pinched trough with it's apex just 300 nmiles northeast of Hawaii with the jet becoming consolidated and offering some support for gale formation. From there the jet ridged northeast again pushing into the Pacific Northwest producing weather there. Over the next 72 hours the pinched trough northeast of Hawaii is to hold together decently while easing east to a point 400 nmiles off Central California circulating and offering some support for gale formation into Sun (12/17) before moving onshore over North CA on Mon (12/18) bringing weather to the region. Beyond 72 hours starting Sun (12/17) the jet is to start becoming much better consolidated over Japan with winds 170 kts ridging gently northeast just touching the Eastern Aleutians on Mon (12/18) with winds 170 kts over the entire length of the jet then falling southeast forming a trough forecast falling southeast through the Eastern Gulf and off North CA on Wed (12/20) offering great support for gale formation. And back to the west on Wed (12/20) the jet is to start roaring with winds 220 kts pushing off Japan reaching to the dateline with the whole of the jet starting to shift south down to 40N on Thurs (12/21). A major improvement of the jetstream looks likely.

Surface Analysis
On Thursday (12/14) swell from a gale that developed off Japan (see West Pacific Gale below) mixed with swell from remnants of that gale that tracked east through the Gulf are poised to hit California (see Weak Gulf Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours swell from another gale that developed previously in the Gulf falling southeast is to be pushing towards Hawaii and California (see Gulf Gale below).

Also remnants of the Gulf Gale (details below) are to start redeveloping Fri AM (12/15) between Hawaii and California with 30-35 kts south and north winds and seas 20 ft at 33.5N 146W aimed southeast. In the evening the gale is to start lifting north with 40-45 kt north winds and seas 22 ft at 30N 143W aimed southeast mainly at Baja. The gale is to remain stationary off North CA Sat AM (12/16) with 40+ kt northwest winds and seas 33 ft over a tiny area at 34.25N 142.5W aimed southeast mainly at Baja. The gale is to remain stationary in the evening while fading with 30 kt north winds and seas 25 ft at 30N 143W aimed south with perhaps sideband energy targeting Hawaii. The gale to dissipate after that.

Oahu: Rough data suggests swell arrival on Sun (12/17) building to 5.6 ft @ 12 secs early (6.5 ft). Swell building on Mon (12/18) at 6.0 ft @ 14 secs mid-day (8.5 ft). Swell fading Tues (12/19) from 6.0 ft @ 11-12 secs early (7.0 ft). Swell Direction: 15 moving to 35 degrees

West Pacific Gale
Another gale developed east of Japan and half way to the dateline Fri PM (12/8) producing 35-40 kt northwest winds and seas 26 ft at 40N 160E aimed southeast. On Sat AM (12/6) the gale tracked east-southeast with 35-40 kt northwest winds and seas 27 ft at 38N 167E aimed southeast. In the evening the gale was falling southeast with 35 kt northwest winds over a decreasing area approaching the dateline and seas 28 ft at 36.25N 168.75E aimed southeast targeting Hawaii well. On Sun AM (12/10) the gale was moving over the dateline with 35-40 kt northwest winds over a modest area with seas 28 ft at 36.5N 176.25E aimed southeast. The gale is to be tracking east positioned just east of the dateline in the evening with 30-35 kt northwest winds and seas 23 ft at 34N 178W aimed southeast. This gale to be fading Mon AM (12/11) with 30-35 kt northwest winds and seas 23 ft at 36.5N 171.75W aimed southeast. The gale is to start targeting the US West Coast beyond. Something to monitor.

North CA: Expect sideband swell arrival on Thurs afternoon (12/14) mostly buried in swell from the Weak Gulf Gale (see below).

Weak Gulf Gale
Remnants of the West Pacific Gale (see details below) on Mon AM (12/11) were over the far West Gulf with 30-35 kt northwest winds and seas 23 ft at 36.5N 172W aimed southeast. In the evening the gale built some with 35 kt northwest winds and 21 ft seas at 36.5N 165W aimed southeast. On Tues AM (12/12) the gale was in the North Central Gulf with 35 kt northwest winds and seas 20 ft at 42N 152.5W aimed southeast. In the evening the gale is to lift hard northeast with 30 kt west winds over the Northeastern Gulf and seas at 18 ft at 48N 143W aimed southeast. Possible swell for the US West Coast arriving Thurs (12/14).

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Thurs afternoon (12/14) building to 3.4 ft @ 12-13 secs later (4.0 ft). Swell fading Fri AM (12/15) from 4.8 ft @ 12 secs early (5.5 ft). Swell Direction: 290 degrees

Gulf Gale
Another gale developed in the Northwestern Gulf on Tues PM (12/12) producing 45 kt northwest winds and seas building from 26 ft at 44.25N 167.75W aimed southeast while falling southeast. On Wed AM (12/13) the gale was falling southeast fast with northwest winds 35-40 kts and seas 26 ft at 40.25N 161W aimed southeast. In the evening the gale was fading well off North CA with 30-35 kt northwest winds and seas 25 ft at 39N 154W aimed southeast. Fetch was fading out Thurs AM (12/14) with seas fading from 21 ft at 38.5N 149W aimed southeast. Small swell is possibly for HI and the US West Coast. Something to monitor.

Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Fri AM (12/15) building to 9.2 ft @ 14 secs (10 ft) early but alot of that windswell intermixed. Combined swell fading on Sat AM (12/16) from 6.3 ft @ 11-12 secs early (7.0 ft). Swell Direction: 10 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Sat AM (12/16) building to 3.9 ft @ 14-15 secs early (5.5 ft). Swell fading on Sun (12/17) and getting overrun by windswell. Swell Direction: 287 degrees

Fri AM (12/15) a front approaches with low pressure building well off Pt Conception and southeast winds 10-15 kts from the Golden Gate northward and southeast winds 10 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon southeast winds are forecast at 10+ kts for North CA and 10 kts for Central CA. No precip forecast.
Sat AM (12/16) the low holds position off North CA with southeast winds 10-15 kts for North CA and south-southeast 10 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon the gale starts fading while remaining stationary offshore with southeast winds 15 kts for North CA and south-southeast winds 10-15 kts for Central CA. No precip forecast.
Sun AM (12/17) the low remains stationary with south-southeast winds 10-15 kts from Monterey Bay northward and south winds 10-15 kts for the remainder of Central CA. In the afternoon south-southeast winds are to be 20 kts from Monterey Bay northward and south 10-15 kts south of there. Rain forecast for the coast of North CA from Monterey Bay northward by 10 AM then covering all of North and Central CA down into Santa Maria at sunset reaching Barbara County in the evening. No snow forecast yet.
Mon AM (12/18) the low is to be arriving along the coast with south winds 20-30 kts from Monterey Bay northward and south winds 10-15 kts south of there. In the afternoon the from sweeps north up the coast with southwest winds 30+ kts for Cape Mendocino and southwest winds 15 kts from Monterey Bay northward and southwest 10 kt south of there to Pt Conception. Rain for all of California down to Santa Barbara County early and holding through late afternoon. Light snow possible for higher elevations of the Sierra focused on the Central Sierra but mostly just cold rain.
Tues AM (12/19) another low is to be pushing into the area from the Northern Gulf with southwest winds 15 kts for Cape Mendocino and south to southwest winds 10 kts for the remainder of the CA coast. In the afternoon southwest winds are to be 15 kts for all of North CA down to Monterey Bay and south winds 10 kts south of there. Light rain for all of North and Central CA early holding through the day and getting heavy for Bodega Bay northward in the afternoon reaching San Francisco in the evening. Steady rain for all of Southern CA late afternoon through the evening. Snow for higher elevations of the the Sierra and likely building in the afternoon and evening.
Wed AM (12/20) the low is to be just off San Francisco with east winds 5 kts for North Ca and southwest winds 15 kts for all of Central CA and southwest winds 10 kts into Southern CA. In the afternoon the low is to be over San Francisco with east winds for North CA and southwest winds 15 kts south of there. Rain for Big Sur northward early getting heavily through the day and focused on the Central Coast reaching southern Ca in the evening. Heavy snow developing for the Sierra through the day and evening.
Thurs AM (12/21) the low is to dissolve off Central CA with east winds 5 kts for North CA and south winds 10 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon the low is to fall south off Pt Conception with east winds 10 kts from Monterey Bay northward and south winds 10-15 kts south of there. rain for all of California except Cape Mendocino early and getting lighter from north to south through the day. Heavy snow for the Sierra early but gone by the afternoon.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at 31, 41, 35, and 41 inches respectively on Mon-Thurs (12/18-12/21).

Freeze Level for Tahoe Ski Resorts: Freeze Level 10,500 ft on 12/14 hovering there through 12/17. Freeze level possibly falling to about 8,000 ft late early on Mon 12/18 holding through 12/22 then finally falling to 5,000 on 12/23 after all the precip is done.

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Overview
Surface Analysis
No swell of interest coming from the Southern Hemisphere was hitting Hawaii or California. Summer is over.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

Beyond 72 hours another small gale is forecast developing in the North Central Gulf Sun PM (12/17) generating northwest winds at 40 kts while falling southeast with seas building from 26 ft over a small area at 48N 156W aimed southeast. On Mon AM (12/18) the gael is to be falling southeast with 40 kt northwest winds and seas 31 ft at 47.5N 150W aimed southeast. In the evening the gale is to continue fall southeast with 40 kt northwest winds and seas 31 ft at 47N 144W aimed southeast. On Tues AM (12/19) the gale is to well be off Oregon with 35+ kt northwest winds and seas 29 ft at 43N 140W aimed southeast. The gale is to race southeast in the evening with 30 kt northwest winds and seas 25 ft at 39N 134W or 750 nmiles northwest of San Francisco. On Wed AM (12/20) the gale is to be 300 nmiles off Pt Conception with 35 kt northwest winds and seas fading from 23 ft at 36N 131W aimed southeast. Something to monitor.

And another gale is forecast developing off the North Kuril Islands on Mon AM (12/18) tracking east with 40 kt west winds and seas 33 ft at 49N 165,75E aimed east. In the evening west winds to be 35-40 kts with seas 32 ft at 47.5N 170.5E aimed east. On Tues AM (12/19) fetch is to be rebuilding over the North Dateline region at 40-45 kts from the northwest with seas 27 ft at 49N 177E aimed southeast and a bit south of the Central Aleutians. In the evening fetch is to hold at 40-45 kts from the west and seas 28-30 ft at 50N 176E aimed east. On Wed AM (12/20) west winds to fade from 40 kts with seas 31 ft at 50.5N 176.75W aimed east. Fetch fading in the evening from 35 kts from the west with seas fading from 27 ft at 51.5N 165.75W aimed east. Something to monitor.

Kelvin Wave #7 & #8 Pushing East
NINO3.4 SST Anomalies Reflect a Strong El Nino
1 Kelvin Wave traversed the Pacific in Dec '22 with a 2nd in Jan-Feb and a 3rd and 4th in March-April, a 5th in May and a 6th in August. But after the last Active MJO in mid-to-late May (resulting in Kevin Wave #5), the MJO stalled. Finally the Active Phase restarted in later July Producing Kelvin Wave #6 which is erupting off Ecuador now. Another Active Phase of the MJO and 3 associated Westerly Wind Bursts developed early Oct thru later Nov producing Kelvin Waves #7 and #8 which are pushing east now and poised to erupt in the next month. All these Active MJO/Kevin Wave pairs are backfilling warm water off Ecuador and helping push the atmosphere towards El Nino. And El Nino is finally starting to be evident in the atmosphere as evidenced by the SOI, OLR. ocean current, and wind anomalies.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023.

Rationale: A 3 year La Nina started fading in Jan 2023 and was gone by April. 6 Active MJO's produced 6 Kelvin Waves over early to mid 2023 with Kelvin Wave #7 in August building over the West Pacific and the 4th, 5th and 6th backed up off Ecuador now (10/20/23). The CFS model is predicting steady west anomalies from here forward and the leading edge of the low pressure bias moving over California now filling the Pacific. We are now under an El Nino status. We are moving into a period of enhanced storm production (starting late Sept 2023) and beyond, getting intense come late Fall and early Winter. This should result in an above normal level of swells, with swells being longer than normal duration from here forward as El Nino gets a stronger footprint on the atmosphere. The net result is a well above normal number of swells with above normal size and duration (i.e 15 significant class swells perhaps). Last year there were 0 and year before 5 or less.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (12/13) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the East equatorial Pacific and moderate to strong east over the Central Pacific and weak west over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the East equatorial Pacific and neutral over the Central Pacific and moderate west over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (12/14) West anomalies were modest filling the KWGA today. The forecast indicates west mostly holding filling the KWGA at strong status over a small area on the dateline through 12/24 then being interrupted by a small pocket of easterly anomalies on 12/25 holding on the dateline through the end of the model run on 12/30 while west anomalies move east of the dateline and most of the KWGA. East anomalies weakened in the Indian Ocean on 12/8 and are to collapse through 12/27 with the Indian Ocean Dipole dissipating.

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (12/13) The Active Phase of the MJO (wet air/cloudy skies) was building modestly over the KWGA today. The statistic model indicates the Active MJO (wet air/cloudy skies) is to build some on day 5 of the model run over the dateline then holding on days 10 and 15 of the model run while tracking east finally moving east of the dateline on day 15. The dynamic model depicts a version of the same thing.
Phase Diagrams - 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (12/14) The statistical model depicts the Active signal was weak over the West Pacific today. The forecast indicates it is to move to Africa 15 days out and weak. The dynamic model indicates the same thing.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (12/14) A solid Active MJO pattern (wet air) was indicated over the KWGA today. The forecast has a fading Active signal (wet air) pushing through the KWGA through 12/24. Then an Inactive MJO (dry air) pattern sets up moving east over the KWGA 12/24 filling the KWGA through 1/13. The Active Phase (wet air) is to return to the KWGA on 1/13 building over the KWGA through the the last day of the model run on 1/23.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (12/13) Today the Active Phase of the MJO was starting to build over the far West KWGA with west anomalies developing at moderate to strong strength over all the KWGA. The forecast has west anomalies strong through the forecast period (ending 1/10) focused on the dateline with the Active Phase pushing through the KWGA to the dateline. Of note: Moderate east anomalies started building over the Indian Ocean on 9/2 holding at strong status 11/15 then moderated 11/21. They are forecast to hold at modest strength through 12/25 as the Active Phase passes over that area then returning to moderate strength through the end of the model run. That coupled with strong west anomalies in the West Pacific suggest massively falling air occurring near 120E (Maritime Continent), likely the downward branch of the Walker Circulation. The Indian Ocean Dipole is currently strong positive and building (the falling branch of the Walker Circulation). We're into a real El Nino pattern according to this model.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (12/14) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today the Inactive Phase was all but gone over the KWGA with west anomalies building over the KWGA and the Active Phase starting to show in the far West KWGA. The Active Phase is continue moving over the KWGA filling it 12/17-1/24 with moderate to strong west anomalies over the period. After that the Inactive Phase develops 1/7 in the far west KWGA and filling it through 3/3 with east anomalies over the Western half of the KWGA starting Jan 1st and west anomalies over the eastern half. Perhaps another Active Phase to develop 2/24 holding through the end of the model run on 3/12 with only moderate west anomalies over the dateline. Note: East anomalies started building at 70E (West Indian Ocean) on 9/7 and peaked 10/10-11/5 and are to hold into 11/29, then moderating while pushing hard east on 1/8-2/1 into the West KWGA then dissipating. This strong east and west anomaly pattern looks very much like falling air centered over the Maritime Continent (120E) associated with the downward branch of the Walker Circulation/+IOD. Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) suggests cloud activity took over the KWGA weakly on 6/24 and started building in earnest then more solid starting Sept 15, It started building strongly on 10/16 and is continuing to build, strongly starting on 11/1 and continuing today. It is forecast building strongly from here forward while easing east to 140W on 1/11 then holding through the end of the model run. Conversely clear skies started building over the Maritime Continent in mid-May and have continued solidifying today and are forecast building to Jan 2, then fading while moving east to 150E in early January. This also suggests a rising air pattern associated with the upward branch of the Walker Circulation developing today on the dateline and moving east to 140W in January. The low pass filter indicates a broad low pressure bias is established over the KWGA centered at 170W with a 4th contour line (started 11/4). The fourth contour line is to dissipate on 2/20. The high pressure bias started to build over the Maritime Continent on 10/2. A second high pressure contour has faded from the model. It appears a strong El Nino is finally starting to develop in a classical sense and is to move east over the next 3 months.

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (12/14) Today in the far West Pacific the leading edge of the 30 deg isotherm was steady at 163W (previously 169W). The 29 degree isotherm was backtracking to 155W (previously 150W). The 28 deg isotherm line was backtracking to 140W (previously 138W). The 24 degree isotherm extended the whole way across the Pacific and deeper at 42m (25m earlier but at one point down to 65m). Anomaly wise, warm anomalies at +2 deg C start in the far West Pacific at 175E and +3 deg anomalies start at 170W but shrinking fast associated with Kelvin Wave #7/8 with a previous core of +4 degs anomalies now gone having moved to the east and merging with a semi permanent core of warm water at +4-5 deg anomalies starting at +141W (previously 145W) pushing east in a continuous stream into Ecuador. The warm pool in the east is discharging to the surface while being backfilled by a little more warm water/Kelvin Wave #7 but no longer growing in coverage. The leading edge of Kelvin Wave #7 is starting to erupt off Ecuador per TAO near 110W . There's about 2.0 months of warm water backed up off the Ecuadorian Coast with a stream of warm water backfilling into it per TAO. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 12/9 indicates +1-2 degs anomalies starting at 170E and over a large section of the subsurface equatorial Pacific (Kelvin Wave #7) and building while tracking east with 3 deg anomalies from 165W with embedded +4-5 deg anomalies and points east of there and +4-5 degs anomalies in another pocket from 125W and points east of there originating from Kelvin Waves #6, #5 and #4 erupting into Ecuador. A thin stream of +0.5 degree anomalies were falling off the Maritime Continent merging with the preexisting warm stream but cool water was getting a good foothold now. The leading edge of Kelvin Wave #7 was indicated at 100W per GODAS. A steady flow of warm water tracking east from the Maritime Continent. No cool anomalies were indicated. El Nino is developing. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (12/9) Sea heights were positive across the equatorial Pacific starting at 180W (previously 165E) at +0-5 cms extending east into Ecuador. +5 cm anomalies covered the area from 170W to 90W (Kelvin Wave #7) with +10 cm anomalies between 140W to 110W. Positive anomalies also extended north into Central America and south to Peru. This means no cool water was at depth. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (12/9) warm water is moving east at +0.5 degs from 173W to Ecuador with a broad pocket of +1.0-2.5 deg anomalies between 160W to 95W and moving east. The leading edge of Kelvin Wave #7 per this chart is at 95W. The full development of El Nino is starting with cooler water developing over the West Pacific and warm water building in the east and pushing east with a new Kelvin Wave in flight. But the demise of the warm pool in the west signals an eventual turn to La Nina (sometime next year).

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (12/13) The latest images depict a strong warm stream from Ecuador uniformly covering the area on the equator from Ecuador to the dateline. But overall it looks like temps have faded some especially between 140W to the dateline. Pockets of stronger warming were not present between the Galapagos and 120W. The warm pool is looking to be fading some though still consistent mainly from 120W and points east of there. Heat also extends north up to Southern Baja and south down into Central Chile. There is a very clear El Nino signal with the classic El Nino triangle in-place and building towards a strong status.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (12/13): A generally neutral trend is on the equator though weak warming was between Ecuador and the Galapagos. In general a warming trend has been well entrenched over the East Pacific since Nov 1 2022 with no cooling waters over the equatorial East Pacific since 12/15.
Hi-res Overview: (12/13) Warmer than normal waters are filling the Equatorial Pacific from Ecuador to the dateline and strongest from 90W to 130W. The classic El Nino tongue of warm water is steady but not building over the equator west to the dateline. Everything is now looking like El Nino.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (12/14) (The official OISST temp record runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps are rising at +1.100 after building to +1.715 (11/27) and down at +1.0630 (11/20) after being at +1.657 (11/13) and up to +2.001 (11/6-11/10) then generally steady in the +1.9 degs range 9/28-11/9. Previous temps were down at +1.755 (10/22), down to +1.527 (10/6), up to +2.10 (9/17) and have been falling since 8/31 when they were up to +3.073 after rising to +3.164 (8/18) after being up to +2.925 on 8/10 after rising at +3.074 degs (8/7) after being up to +3.391 (on 7/20) and had been rising from +2.906 (starting 7/3) rising from +2.451 after peaking at +2.7926 on 6/13 and have been up in the +2.0 to +3.0 degs range since 4/1 having previously peaked at +2.891 (4/13). Previously temps reached +2.302 degrees on 4/6, +1.732 degs (3/22), up from +0.462 since 2/28. Temps had reached as high as +1.076 on 2/19 and were previously steady at +0.848 since 2/7. Previously they started steadily rising 11/13 when they were around -1.5 degs C.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (12/14) (OISST runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were falling at +1.345 after being up to +1.4660 (12/12) and up to +1.717 (11/22) after falling into +1.236 (11/16) after being up to +1.449 on 11/2 and +1.300 on 10/20 after falling down to +1.149 (10/11). Weekly OISST are down at +1.9 falling from +2.0 degs (11/29) and +2.1 (week of 11/22 - the highest so far), then +1.9 the week before and +1.8 degs (previous 2 weeks). Anomalies were +1.6 the previous 2 weeks (10/18 & 1025), +1.5 the 3 weeks previous (through 10/11) after being up to +1.7 degs the week before and +1.6 degs 3 weeks in a row prior (starting 8/30) putting us in minimal strong El Nino status. Temps first time above +1.0 degs was on 8/7 after being up to +0.967 (8/1) up from +0.873 degs (7/25) after peaking at +0.985 (7/18). Previously temps were rising slightly at +0.882 (7/9) after being steady at +0.794 4-5 days and that after being steady at +0.895 (3 days near 6/25) after being in the +0.712 range the previous 9 days after previously rising to +0.975 on 6/9. We are now 31 days into a trend of being above the El Nino threshold (for the 2nd time). Temps reached the El Nino threshold for the first time on 5/17 at +0.507 then quickly fell over the next 10 days down to +0.378 (5/26). Previous peaks of +0.318 on 4/30 besting the previous peak at +0.199 on 4/21. Temps have been steadily increasing hitting 0.0 on 4/12 and were then more or less steady the previous 4 weeks. Temps previously rose to -0.402 on 2/23. Temps rose above the La Nina threshold (-0.5 degs) on 2/22 and had been rising slowly since 2/12 when they were about -1.0 degs C. They had been in the -1.0 deg range since at least Nov 2022.

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps bottomed out at at -1.25 degs in early Nov 2020, up to -0.01 degs in mid-June 2021 then fading to -1.05 degs in mid-Nov then rebuilding to -0.7 in mid Feb 2022 then fading to -1.1 degs in May before starting an upward climb peaking in mid-June at -0.65 degs and mid July at -0.55 degs. A steady decline set in after that falling to -1.00 degs in Aug and Sept rising to -0.8 degs mid Oct then falling to -1.0 in Nov but then slowly rising to -0.75 degs in Jan 2023 and up to -0.5 degs (above the La Nina threshold) on 2/12. Temps rose to +0.50 degs mid-May and were at +0.9 degs in mid-June, and +1.05 mid July reaching up to +1.30 degs early Aug, +1.6 degs in Sept holding in Oct and , +1.95 in Nov.
Forecast (12/14) - Temps to are to hold at +1.95 degs though mid Dec, then falling to +1.7 mid- Jan and solidly in strong El Nino territory before starting a steady fade thereafter. The PDF Corrected forecast suggests the same thing as the previous model. According to this version of the model we are building into a upper level strong El Nino.
IRI Consensus Plume: The November 20, 2023 Plume (all models) depicts temps are +1.897 degs today and it's the 8th month above the La Nina threshold. Temps to rise steadily from here forward up to +1.839 degrees in December (that's a 3 months running mean) then fading from there. The dynamic model suggest temps peaking at +2.014 in Nov/Dec/Jan and are forecast at +2.016 in Dec/Jan/Feb before falling while the statistic models show +1.647 Nov/Dec/Jan and +1.462 degrees Dec/Jan/Feb before falling. The dynamic models are running a bit hotter than the statistic models and are likely more accurate. The CFS model is on the low end of the dynamic model range with 7 of 17 models above +2.0 degrees.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (12/13) the Daily Index was steady at +4.36 but otherwise was negative since 12/3. It had been mostly positive the previous 8 days (starting 11/25) but was negative 5 days previous, neutral for 2 days then negative the previous 12 days, Previously they were toggling between weakly positive and negative for 12 days (starting 10/24), but were solidly negative for 65 days prior (starting 9/16). It was positive the previous 7 days, then negative the previous 29 days (7/14-8/11) with a peak down to -37.30 on 7/25.The SOI has effectively been negative since 7/12. It was positive the previous 21 days then was negative 11 days prior and positive 5 days previous then negative for 27 days previous ending 6/6 with a peak down to -29.32 on 5/31, -64.63 on 5/24 and -31.31 on 5/12. Previously readings were toggling between +10 and -10 for 13 days, but negative the 15 days previous to that, positive the 6 days prior to that after being mostly negative 25 days before that. It fell to -19.40 on 4/2. -17.44 on 2/22, the beginning of a change from which no return seemed likely. It was up to +21.85 on 2/10 and +55.74 on 12/22 and were in the +20 range the previous 22 days.
The 30 day average was rising at -3.88 after being down to -10.43 on 11/16 and up to -5.75 on 11/5 and previously down to -15.70 on 9/23. It fell below the neutral point on 7/26. It rose above positive 7/3-7/25. It previously fell to -19.64 on 6/5 had been falling to -4.13 on 4/4 (lagging indicator driven by the Active Phase of the MJO) after falling to -0.52 on 3/22 previously falling to +4.18 on 11/27 and peaking at +21.57 (10/16) after supposedly peaking at +19.66 on 9/28. It was down to +6.89 on 7/29. It peaked at +20.34 (5/12) the highest in a year and beating last years high of +19.51 (1/14).
The 90 day average was rising at -7.86 and turned negative the first time in years on 5/12. Recent max lows were -11.14 on 11/17, -11.85 on 10/15, -8.90 on 8/8 and -7.57 on 6/6. It previously peaked at +14.63 on 2/20, +15.61 on 10/25 and +12.92 on 8/11 and that after peaking at +18.40 (7/2) beating it's previous peak of +16.86 (5/31), the highest in a year. It previously peaked at +9.80 (9/21) after falling to it's lowest point in a year at +1.06 (6/9). The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 (2/23/21 - clearly indicative of La Nina then). This index is a lagging indicator but suggests that the Active Phase occurring now is starting to drive the index down, hopefully with no upward trend in sight for at least a year.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative ever since, driven by recent La Nina conditions. In May-July 2021 it was the most negative its been in the -1.80 to -2.04 range since Sept 2012 (-2.99) and then fell to -3.16 in Oct 2021 (the lowest since July 1933) then settled at -2.72 in Nov and Dec 2021. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.