BUOY ROUNDUP
Saturday, December 23, 2023 :

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Saturday (12/23) in North and Central CA waves were 1-2 ft overhead and clean and lined up with light offshore wind but with a fair amount of lump in it from winds just off the coast and looking a bit raw. Protected breaks were 1 ft overhead on the sets and lined up and mostly closed out with reasonably clean surface conditions but with a fair amount of warble in the water. At Santa Cruz surf was chest high on the sets and lined up with good form and clean but soft and a bit wonky from tide. In Southern California/Ventura waves were up to chest high and reasonably lined up with decent form and clean but soft ad inconsistent. Central Orange County had sets at chest high and lined up but really warbled from south winds. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had waves at chest high and lined up but pretty warbled and weak not well rideable. North San Diego had waves at waist high on the sets and somewhat lined up and soft with moderately warbled conditions. Oahu's North Shore had waves at 2-3 ft overhead and clean and lined up but still with some warble running through depending on the break. The South Shore was thigh high and clean but soft. The East Shore was getting east windswell at chest high and chopped from moderate east-northeast trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Saturday (12/23) Hawaii was getting swell from a gale that developed off Kamchatka tracking to the North Dateline region Mon-Wed (12/20) producing initially 31 ft seas fading to 25 ft aimed east. California was getting mostly locally generated northwest windswell. Next up is swell from a gale that tracked east over the dateline Thurs-Fri (12/22) producing up to 44 ft seas initially then 30 ft seas tracking through the Central Gulf on Sat (12/23). Swell is tracking towards HI and CA. Another smaller gale is forecast to follow on a similar track but further south starting on the dateline tracking east Sat-Mon (12/25) with seas to 33 ft aimed east. Another is to be right behind tracking from the dateline east to a point off Central CA Mon-Wed (12/27) with 37-40 ft seas aimed east. And yet another is forecast developing over the Western Gulf tracking east and just off Central CA Wed-Fri (12/29) with 42 ft seas aimed east. And yet another is forecast behind that moving from the North Dateline region to the Northwestern Gulf Thurs-Fri (12/29) with 41 ft seas aimed east. And yet another and broader one to follow on the dateline Sat (12/30) with 43 ft seas aimed southeast. A total of 5 storms producing 40 ft plus seas are forecast over the next week. Much swell is possible.

See all the details below...

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Saturday (12/23) the jet was consolidated pushing east-northeast off Japan and over the dateline with winds to 200 kts forming a trough moving over the Northern Gulf offering support for gale development. East of there the jet was split about 600 nmiles off Oregon with the split offering weak protective high pressure over California. Over the next 72 hours the jet is to start flattening out while falling south running east on the 40N latitude line fully consolidated from Japan to a point north of Hawaii with winds to 210 kts and a trough developing just north of Hawaii offering great support for gale development and it's leading edge impacting the OR-CA border on Tues (12/26) likely producing weather there. Beyond 72 hours the initial trough is to move into the Pacific Northwest on Wed (12/27) while another trough develops north of Hawaii pushing east offering good support for gale development. The jet is to push into Central CA on Fri (12/29) while yet another trough starts building on the dateline being fed by 180 kts winds. Quite a solid storm producing machine/pattern is forecast.

Surface Analysis
On Saturday (12/23) swell was fading in Hawaii and poised for CA from a gale that developed off the North Kuril Islands pushing to the North Dateline region (see North Dateline Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours swell is to be radiating southeast from a gale that tracked from the Dateline to the Gulf (see First Dateline Storm below). And a small storm is to follow directly tracking east through the Gulf (See Small Gulf Storm below).

And additional follow-on fetch is forecast right behind Mon AM (12/25) from the northwest and over the dateline at 35 kts with a core at 45 kts and seas 29 ft in 3 lobed at 37N 174W aimed southeast targeting Hawaii well. Northwest fetch getting more consolidated in the evening at 50 kts 1100 nmiles north of Hawaii with seas up to 33 ft at 40.5N 158W but a broad area of 27 ft seas at 35N 165W both aimed southeast at Hawaii. On Tues AM (12/26) fetch is to track east at 45-50 kts with seas 37 ft at 40.75N 154.75W aimed southeast. The fetch is to organize more in the evening off Central CA at 40+ kts from the northwest with seas 39 ft at 38.25N 148.75W aimed southeast. The gale is to be racing northeast Wed AM (12/27) with northwest winds 50-55 kts off Oregon and seas 40 ft at 38.75N 140.75W aimed southeast. Fetch moving inland over Canada in the afternoon with 40 ft seas at 43.75N 136W aimed east. More to monitor.

North Dateline Gale
On Mon AM (12/18) a gale was tracking east from the North Kuril Islands with 40 kt west winds and seas 31 ft at 48N 164.25E aimed east. In the evening west winds were 35-40 kts over a broad area with seas 31 ft at 47N 165E aimed east. On Tues AM (12/19) fetch was fading just west of the North Dateline region at 35 kts from the west with seas 29 ft at 47.25N 174.75E aimed southeast and a bit south of the Central Aleutians. In the evening fetch held at 30-35 kts from the west and seas 25 ft at 46.75N 179.5W aimed east while straddling the dateline. On Wed AM (12/20) west winds faded from 30 kts over the Northwestern Gulf with seas 22 ft at 46.5N 173.5W aimed east. Fetch was fading in the evening from 30-35 kts from the west over the Northwestern Gulf with seas fading from 21 ft at 47N 166W aimed east. Swell possible for HI and CA.

Oahu: Swell fading on Sat (12/23) from 3.5 ft @ 13-14 secs early (4.5 ft). Swell Direction: 315 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival later on Sat (12/23) building to 2.8 ft @ 16 secs later (4.5 ft) but buried in local northwest windswell at 5.5 ft @ 11 secs (5.0 ft). Swell holding early Sun (12/24) at 6.0 ft @ 14-15 secs early (8.5 ft). Residuals on Mon (12/25) fading from 5.4 ft @ 13-14 secs early (7.0 ft). Swell Direction: 303 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival at exposed breaks on Sun (12/24) building to 2.5 ft @ 15-16 secs early (3.5 ft). Swell fading Mon (12/25) from 2.0 ft @ 14 secs early (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 307 degrees

First Dateline Storm
A small gale developed just west of the dateline on Thurs AM (12/21) with 50 kt west winds and seas building from 29 ft at 44.25N 167E aimed east. In the evening the gale built to storm status while tracking east directly over the dateline with 50-55 kt west winds and seas 42 ft over a small area at 45.5N 179W aimed east. On Fri AM (12/22) the gale was over the Northwestern Gulf with 45 kt west winds and seas 43 ft at 45.5N 169.5W aimed east. The gale tracked southeast in the evening over the Central Gulf with 40-45 kt northwest winds and seas 36 ft at 45N 165.5W aimed east and southeast. Fetch holding Sat AM (12/23) from the northwest at 35-40 kts over a broad area in the Gulf with seas 32 ft over a broad area at 43.5N 158W. Fetch is to be fading in the evening from 30-35 kts from the northwest in the Northeastern Gulf with seas fading from 29 ft at 44N 148.5W aimed southeast. Then gale to dissipate while tracking east from there. Something to monitor. Swell likely for HI and CA.

Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Sun (12/24) building to 4.8 ft @ 15-16 secs later (7.5 ft). Swell fading Christmas Day (12/25) from 4.7 ft @ 13-14 secs early (6.5 ft). Swell Direction: 325 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Mon (12/25) building to 8.1 ft @ 17 secs mid-day (13 ft). Swell fading Tues AM (12/26) from 7.0 ft @ 15 secs early (10/5 ft) and possibly being over taken by local swell later. Swell Direction: 290 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on late Christmas night. Swell fading Tues AM (12/26) from 2.7 ft @ 16 secs early (4.0-4.5 ft). Swell being overrun by new swell after that. Swell Direction: 300 degrees

Small Gulf Storm
And another small storm is to start developing over the Southern Dateline region Sat PM (12/23) with 45-50 kt northwest winds and seas building from 20 ft at 38N 178E aimed east and southeast. On Sun AM (12/24) northwest winds to be 55 kts over the Western Gulf with seas building from 29 ft at 38.5N 170.5W aimed east and southeast. In the evening the storm is to move into the Central Gulf with northwest winds at 50 kts with seas 34 ft at 37.25N 158.25W aimed southeast. On Mon AM (12/25) the gale is to track east over the Eastern Gulf with west winds 45-50 kts and seas 31 ft at 37.75N 145W aimed southeast. In the evening fetch is to be lifting northeast and fading from 45 kts off Washington with seas 30 ft at 45N 139W aimed southeast. Something to monitor.

Oahu: Rough data suggest swell arrival on Tues (12/26) building to 8.1 ft @ 16 secs just before sunrise (12.5 ft) fading some through the day. Swell being overtaken by new swell within 24 hours. Swell Direction: 330 degrees

North CA: Rough data suggests swell arrival on Tues (12/26) building to 9.8 ft @ 15 secs later (14.5 ft). Swell fading some on Wed (12/27) from 7.6 ft @ 14-15 secs early (10.5 ft). Swell Direction: 290 degrees

Southern CA: Rough data suggests swell arrival on first light Wed (12/27) at 3.2 ft @ 14-15 secs (4.5 ft). Swell being overtaken by new swell in the late afternoon. Swell Direction: 293 degrees

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

Tropical Update
No tropical systems of interest were being tracked.

California Nearshore Forecast

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at 7, 6, 8, and 0 inches respectively with 1-2 inches late Wed (12/27) and most on Sat 12/30.

Freeze Level for Tahoe Ski Resorts: Freeze Level 8,500 ft now through 12/25 rising to 10,000 ft 12/26 then falling to 7,000 ft early 12/28 back up to near 9.000 ft on 12/29 then falling to 5.000 ft on 12/30 and holding beyond.

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Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for Resort specific forecasts).

South Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
No swell of interest coming from the Southern Hemisphere was hitting Hawaii or California. Summer is over.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours yet another strong storm is forecast developing just west of the dateline Tues AM (12/26) with 40-45 kt west winds and seas building fast. In the evening northwest winds to be 50 kts over the dateline with seas building from 24 ft at 38N 180W aimed east and southeast. On Wed AM (12/27) 40-45 kt northwest winds are to be over the Western Gulf with seas 26 ft at 35N 170W aimed southeast. In the evening northwest winds to build to 55 kts with seas 40 ft at 38N 159.5W aimed southeast. On Thurs AM (12/28) the storm is to be in the Central Gulf with northwest winds 55 kts and seas 43 ft at 35.25N 151.5W aimed southeast. The storm is to lift northeast in the evening with 45 kt northwest winds and seas 38 ft at 3N 144.25W aimed east southeast. The gael is to be fading on Fri AM (12/29) off Central CA with seas fading from 30 ft at 34N 1139W aimed southeast. This looks like a Southern CA event.

And yet another gael is forecast developing just west of the dateline Wed PM (12/27) with 40 kts west winds and seas 34 ft at 45N 173E aimed east. On Thurs AM (12/28) 45 kt west winds are to be on the dateline with seas 42 ft at 45N 180W aimed east. In the evening the system is to move into the Western Gulf with 40 kt west winds ands seas 37 ft at 47N 172W aimed east. On Fri AM (12/29) the gael is to be fading in the Northwestern Gulf with 40-45 kts northwest winds and seas 31 ft at 49N 165W aimed southeast. The gale to fade from there.

And yet a broader and stronger storm is forecast developing west of the dateline Fri PM (12/29) with 55 kt northwest winds and seas building from 34 ft at 45.75N 162.25WE aimed southeast. On Sat AM (12/30) the gale to fall southeast with 50 kts west winds approaching the dateline with 41 ft seas at 43.25N 165.75e aimed southeast. In the evening the gale is to be on the dateline with 45 kt west winds and seas 44 ft at 41.75N 178.25E aimed southeast. Something to monitor.

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

MJO/ENSO Forecast

El Nino Peaking
NINO3.4 SST Anomalies Reflect a Strong El Nino
1 Kelvin Wave traversed the Pacific in Dec '22 with a 2nd in Jan-Feb and a 3rd and 4th in March-April, a 5th in May and a 6th in August. But after the last Active MJO in mid-to-late May (resulting in Kevin Wave #5), the MJO stalled. Finally the Active Phase restarted in later July Producing Kelvin Wave #6 which is erupting off Ecuador now. Another Active Phase of the MJO and 3 associated Westerly Wind Bursts developed early Oct thru later Nov producing Kelvin Waves #7 and #8 which are erupting off Ecuador now. All these Active MJO/Kevin Wave pairs are backfilling warm water off Ecuador and helping push the atmosphere deeper into El Nino. And El Nino is finally evident in the atmosphere as evidenced by the jetstream, OLR. ocean current, and wind anomalies.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023.

Rationale: A 3 year La Nina started fading in Jan 2023 and was gone by April. 6 Active MJO's produced 6 Kelvin Waves over early to mid 2023 with Kelvin Wave #7 in August building over the West Pacific and the 4th, 5th and 6th backed up off Ecuador now (10/20/23). The CFS model is predicting steady west anomalies from here forward and the leading edge of the low pressure bias moving over California now filling the Pacific. We are now under an El Nino status. We are moving into a period of enhanced storm production (starting late Sept 2023) and beyond, getting intense come late Fall and early Winter. This should result in an above normal level of swells, with swells being longer than normal duration from here forward as El Nino gets a stronger footprint on the atmosphere. The net result is a well above normal number of swells with above normal size and duration (i.e 15 significant class swells perhaps). Last year there were 0 and year before 5 or less.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (12/22) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the East equatorial Pacific and moderate east over the Central Pacific and moderate west over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the East equatorial Pacific and neutral over the Central Pacific and strong west over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (12/23) West anomalies were strong over the dateline but with modest east anomalies over the western half of the KWGA. There's a 50/50 split of east and west anomalies over the KWGA. The forecast indicates the same pattern holding to 12/28, then west anomalies shift just east of the dateline and mostly east of the KWGA filling the East Pacific while east anomalies build filling the KWGA 12/29 through the end of the model run on 1/8. East anomalies weakened in the Indian Ocean on 12/8 and are to starting to shift east by 12/24 centered over the far West KWGA beyond. West anomalies are to start developing over over the Maritime Continent 12/22 and beyond. The Indian Ocean Dipole dissipating.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (12/23) Today in the far West Pacific the leading edge of the 30 deg isotherm was steady at 166W. The 29 degree isotherm was steady at 157W. The 28 deg isotherm line was steady at 143W. The 24 degree isotherm extended the whole way across the Pacific and deeper at 45m (25m earlier but at one point down to 65m). Anomaly wise, warm anomalies at +2 deg C start in the far West Pacific at 173E and +3 deg anomalies start at 148W and shrinking fast associated with the eastward movement of the final Kelvin Wave #7/8. +4 degs anomalies now start at +134W (previously 145W) pushing east in a continuous stream into Ecuador. The warm pool in the east is discharging to the surface while being backfilled by a little more warm water/Kelvin Wave #7 but no longer growing in coverage. There's about 1.5 months of warm water backed up off the Ecuadorian Coast. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 12/19 indicates +1-2 degs anomalies starting at 170E and over a large section of the subsurface equatorial Pacific (Kelvin Wave #7) and building while tracking east with 3 deg anomalies from 155W and fading fast with embedded +4-5 deg anomalies in a second pool of very warm water from 130W and points east of there erupting into Ecuador. A thin stream of +0.5 degree anomalies were falling off the Maritime Continent merging with the preexisting warm stream but cool water was building deep from 160W and points west of there. A steady flow of warm water tracking east from the Maritime Continent. No cool anomalies were indicated. El Nino is developing. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (12/19) Sea heights were positive across the equatorial Pacific starting at 170W at +0-5 cms extending east into Ecuador. +5 cm anomalies covered the area from 150W to 90W (Kelvin Wave #7) but +10 cm anomalies were gone. This means no cool water was at depth but it appears the warm pool is starting to discharge. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (12/19) warm water is moving east at +0.5 degs from 160W to Ecuador with a broad pocket of +1.0-2.5 deg anomalies between 152W to 92W and moving east. The mature Phase of El Nino has started with cooler water developing over the West Pacific and warm water building in the east and pushing east with a new Kelvin Wave in flight. The demise of the warm pool in the west signals an eventual turn to La Nina (sometime next year).

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (12/22) The latest images depict a strong warm stream from Ecuador uniformly covering the area on the equator west to the dateline. Temps are building some from 90W to 135W but have faded some between 140W to the dateline. Pockets of stronger warming were again showing between the Galapagos and 120W. Heat also extends north up to Southern Baja and south down into North Chile. There is a very clear El Nino signal with the classic El Nino triangle in-place and building towards a strong status.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (12/22): A generalized warming trend is on the equator between the Galapagos out to 160W. In general a warming trend has been well entrenched over the East Pacific since Nov 1 2022 with no cooling waters over the equatorial East Pacific since 12/15.
Hi-res Overview: (12/22) Warmer than normal waters are filling the Equatorial Pacific from Ecuador to the dateline and strongest from 90W to 130W. The classic El Nino tongue of warm water is steady but not building over the equator west to the dateline. Everything is now looking like El Nino.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (12/23) (The official OISST temp record runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps are falling at +0.470 after being steady at +0.814 12/6-12/18. after building to +1.715 (11/27) and down at +1.0630 (11/20) after being at +1.657 (11/13) and up to +2.001 (11/6-11/10) then generally steady in the +1.9 degs range 9/28-11/9. Previous temps were down at +1.755 (10/22), down to +1.527 (10/6), up to +2.10 (9/17) and have been falling since 8/31 when they were up to +3.073 after rising to +3.164 (8/18) after being up to +2.925 on 8/10 after rising at +3.074 degs (8/7) after being up to +3.391 (on 7/20) and had been rising from +2.906 (starting 7/3) rising from +2.451 after peaking at +2.7926 on 6/13 and have been up in the +2.0 to +3.0 degs range since 4/1 having previously peaked at +2.891 (4/13). Previously temps reached +2.302 degrees on 4/6, +1.732 degs (3/22), up from +0.462 since 2/28. Temps had reached as high as +1.076 on 2/19 and were previously steady at +0.848 since 2/7. Previously they started steadily rising 11/13 when they were around -1.5 degs C.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (12/23) (OISST runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were rising at +1.562 after being up to +1.4660 (12/12) and up to +1.717 (11/22) after falling into +1.236 (11/16) after being up to +1.449 on 11/2 and +1.300 on 10/20 after falling down to +1.149 (10/11). Weekly OISST are up at +2.0 after being +1.9 (12/6), +2.0 degs (11/29) and +2.1 (week of 11/22 - the highest so far), then +1.9 the week before and +1.8 degs (previous 2 weeks). Anomalies were +1.6 the previous 2 weeks (10/18 & 1025), +1.5 the 3 weeks previous (through 10/11) after being up to +1.7 degs the week before and +1.6 degs 3 weeks in a row prior (starting 8/30) putting us in minimal strong El Nino status. Temps first time above +1.0 degs was on 8/7 after being up to +0.967 (8/1) up from +0.873 degs (7/25) after peaking at +0.985 (7/18). Previously temps were rising slightly at +0.882 (7/9) after being steady at +0.794 4-5 days and that after being steady at +0.895 (3 days near 6/25) after being in the +0.712 range the previous 9 days after previously rising to +0.975 on 6/9. We are now 31 days into a trend of being above the El Nino threshold (for the 2nd time). Temps reached the El Nino threshold for the first time on 5/17 at +0.507 then quickly fell over the next 10 days down to +0.378 (5/26). Previous peaks of +0.318 on 4/30 besting the previous peak at +0.199 on 4/21. Temps have been steadily increasing hitting 0.0 on 4/12 and were then more or less steady the previous 4 weeks. Temps previously rose to -0.402 on 2/23. Temps rose above the La Nina threshold (-0.5 degs) on 2/22 and had been rising slowly since 2/12 when they were about -1.0 degs C. They had been in the -1.0 deg range since at least Nov 2022.

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps started slowly rising to -0.75 degs in Jan 2023 and up to -0.5 degs (above the La Nina threshold) on 2/12. Temps rose to +0.50 degs mid-May and were at +0.9 degs in mid-June, and +1.05 mid July reaching up to +1.30 degs early Au, +1.6 degs in Sept holding in Oct and , +1.95 in Nov and Dec.
Forecast (12/23) - Temps to are to hold at +1.95 degs though mid Dec, then falling to +1.7 mid- Jan and solidly in strong El Nino territory before starting a steady fade thereafter down to -1.0 degs in Sept 2024. The PDF Corrected forecast suggests the same thing. According to this version of the model we are at the peak of our strong El Nino.
IRI Consensus Plume: The December 20, 2023 Plume (all models) depicts temps are +1.67 degs today and it's the 8th month above the La Nina threshold. Temps to rise steadily from here forward up to +1.838 degrees in December (that's a 3 months running mean) then fading from there. The dynamic model suggest temps peaking at +1.900 in Dec/Jan/Feb before falling while the statistic models show +1.838 Dec/Jan/Feb before falling. This is higher than the previous months projections. The dynamic models are running a bit hotter than the statistic models and are likely more accurate. The CFS model is on the low end of the dynamic model range with 7 of 17 models above +2.0 degrees.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (12/23) the Daily Index was falling hard at -36.43 and has been negative 4 days. It was neutral the previous 8 days (12/12-12/19). Otherwise was negative since 12/3. It had been mostly positive the previous 8 days (starting 11/25) but was negative 5 days previous, neutral for 2 days then negative the previous 12 days, Previously they were toggling between weakly positive and negative for 12 days (starting 10/24), but were solidly negative for 65 days prior (starting 9/16). It was positive the previous 7 days, then negative the previous 29 days (7/14-8/11) with a peak down to -37.30 on 7/25.The SOI has effectively been negative since 7/12. It was positive the previous 21 days then was negative 11 days prior and positive 5 days previous then negative for 27 days previous ending 6/6 with a peak down to -29.32 on 5/31, -64.63 on 5/24 and -31.31 on 5/12. Previously readings were toggling between +10 and -10 for 13 days, but negative the 15 days previous to that, positive the 6 days prior to that after being mostly negative 25 days before that. It fell to -19.40 on 4/2. -17.44 on 2/22, the beginning of a change from which no return seemed likely. It was up to +21.85 on 2/10 and +55.74 on 12/22 and were in the +20 range the previous 22 days.
The 30 day average was falling at -2.68 after being down to -10.43 on 11/16 and up to -5.75 on 11/5 and previously down to -15.70 on 9/23. It fell below the neutral point on 7/26. It rose above positive 7/3-7/25. It previously fell to -19.64 on 6/5 had been falling to -4.13 on 4/4 (lagging indicator driven by the Active Phase of the MJO) after falling to -0.52 on 3/22 previously falling to +4.18 on 11/27 and peaking at +21.57 (10/16) after supposedly peaking at +19.66 on 9/28. It was down to +6.89 on 7/29. It peaked at +20.34 (5/12) the highest in a year and beating last years high of +19.51 (1/14).
The 90 day average was falling at -6.55 after being up to -6.04 on 12/21 and turned negative the first time in years on 5/12. Recent max lows were -11.14 on 11/17, -11.85 on 10/15, -8.90 on 8/8 and -7.57 on 6/6. It previously peaked at +14.63 on 2/20, +15.61 on 10/25 and +12.92 on 8/11 and that after peaking at +18.40 (7/2) beating it's previous peak of +16.86 (5/31), the highest in a year. It previously peaked at +9.80 (9/21) after falling to it's lowest point in a year at +1.06 (6/9). The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 (2/23/21 - clearly indicative of La Nina then). This index is a lagging indicator but suggests that the Active Phase occurring now is starting to drive the index down, hopefully with no upward trend in sight for at least a year.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative ever since, driven by recent La Nina conditions. In May-July 2021 it was the most negative its been in the -1.80 to -2.04 range since Sept 2012 (-2.99) and then fell to -3.16 in Oct 2021 (the lowest since July 1933) then settled at -2.72 in Nov and Dec 2021. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table