BUOY ROUNDUP
Wednesday, December 27, 2023 :

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Wednesday (12/27) in North and Central CA waves were 8-10 ft and chopped and a mess from strong south winds. Protected breaks were head high or so on the sets and lined up with decent form and fairly clean from strong semi offshore winds. At Santa Cruz surf was chest high on the sets and somewhat lined up but mushed and warbled if not chopped from south wind and high tide. In Southern California/Ventura waves were up to 2 ft overhead and lined up with good form and clean. Central Orange County had sets at head high and lined up with good form and clean but pretty soft. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had waves at thigh high and clean but very soft. North San Diego had waves at waist to chest high on the sets and somewhat lined up and soft with clean conditions. Oahu's North Shore had waves at 11-13 ft Hawaiian and clean and lined up with good form. The South Shore was knee high and clean on occasion. The East Shore was getting wrap around northwest swell at 4 ft overhead and lined up and just a bit warbled from weak northeast trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Wednesday (12/27) Hawaii was getting new sideband swell from a gale that developed on the dateline tracking east to a point off Central CA Mon-Wed (12/27) with 37-40 ft seas aimed east. That swell is tracking towards California too. And California was getting fading swell from a previous smaller gale that took a similar track starting on the dateline tracking east Sun-Mon (12/25) with seas to 26-28 ft aimed east. And yet another is forecast developing over the Western Gulf tracking east and just off Central CA Wed-Fri (12/29) with 43 ft seas aimed east. And yet another is forecast behind that moving from the North Dateline region to the Northwestern Gulf Thurs-Fri (12/29) with 36 ft seas aimed southeast. Then a small gale is forecast developing over the Western Gulf tracking east Sun-Tues (1/3) with 29 ft seas targeting mainly California. And a weaker one is forecast in the Northern Gulf Tues-Wed (1/3) with 34 ft seas aimed east over a small area. A total of 5 more gales are forecast over the next week, through smaller than the past run of storms. Much swell is possible. El Nino is delivering.

See all the details below...

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Wednesday (12/27) the jet was consolidated pushing east off Japan and over the dateline flat on the 33N latitude line with winds at 150 kts pushing to a point 700 nmiles off Pt Conception with 3 embedded troughs, one just off North CA, the second north of Hawaii and a third forming off Kamchatka all supportive of gale development. Over the next 72 hours the second trough in the Gulf is to build offering great support for gale development while easing east eventually pushing into North CA on Sat (12/30) while the first moves north. The Kamchatka trough is to track east over the dateline offering good support for gale development and then dissolve over the Northwestern Gulf on Sat (12/30). Beyond 72 hours the jet is to become a little less energetic and less consolidated but still solid centered on the 35N latitude line forming a trough over the dateline on Sun (12/31) and another off California. The California trough is to move inland over the SF Bay area on Mon (1/1) and fairly weak while winds build feeding the dateline trough to 180-190 kts and that trough getting better defined over the Gulf on Mon (1/1) pushing east into California on Wed (1/3). And yet another trough is to build over the North Dateline region on Tues (1/2) expanding while easing east over the Western Gulf on Wed (1/3) providing great support for gale development. The storm producing assembly line is forecast to continue.

Surface Analysis
On Wednesday (12/27) swell was hitting California from a small storm that tracked east through the Gulf (See Small Gulf Gale/Swell #4 below).

Over the next 72 hours swell is to be hitting Hawaii and bound for the US West Coast from another gale that tracked through the Gulf (see Stronger Gulf Storm #5 below). And yet another solid storm has developed targeting Hawaii and CA (see Gulf Storm #6 below)

Small Gulf Gale (Swell #4)
Another small gale developed over the Southern Dateline region Sat PM (12/23) with 40 kt west winds and seas building from 20 ft at 38N 178E aimed east and southeast. On Sun AM (12/24) northwest winds were 40-45 kts over the Western Gulf with seas building from 28 ft at 38.5N 170W aimed east and southeast. In the evening the gale was moving into the Central Gulf with northwest winds at 40 kts with seas 29 ft at 37.25N 157.75W aimed southeast. On Mon AM (12/25) the gale was tracking east over the Eastern Gulf with west winds 40 kts and seas 27 ft at 37.75N 143W aimed southeast. In the evening fetch was lifting northeast and fading from 40 kts off Washington with seas 24 ft at 45N 130W aimed southeast. .

North CA: Swell fading some on Wed (12/27) from 7.6 ft @ 14-15 secs early (10.5 ft). Swell Direction: 290 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival first light Wed (12/27) at 3.2 ft @ 14-15 secs (4.5 ft). Swell being overtaken by new swell in the late afternoon. Swell Direction: 293 degrees

Stronger Gulf Storm #5
A gale developed Mon AM (12/25) while pushing over the dateline with northwest winds 40-45 kts and seas 29 ft at 36.75N 175.5W aimed southeast targeting Hawaii well. Northwest fetch got more consolidated in the evening at 50-55 kts 1100 nmiles north of Hawaii with seas up to 32 ft at 40N 161.5W embedded in a broad area of 25+ ft seas aimed well southeast at Hawaii. On Tues AM (12/26) fetch tracked east at 45-50 kts with seas 36 ft at 40N 156.5W aimed southeast. The fetch organized more in the evening off Central CA at 45-50 kts from the northwest with seas 40 ft at 38.5N 149W aimed southeast. The gale was racing northeast Wed AM (12/27) with northwest winds 45 kts off North CA and seas 38 ft at 37.75N 139.5W aimed southeast. Fetch is to be moving inland over Canada in the afternoon with 33 ft seas at 43.5N 133W aimed east. The gale to fade out from there.

Oahu: Expect swell arrival on peaking at sunrise Wed (12/27) at 10.0 ft @ 15 secs (15 ft) fading some through the day. Swell fading on Thurs (12/28) from 7.0 ft @ 13-14 secs (9.0 ft) and being overtaken by new swell. Swell Direction: 330 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on late on Wed (12/27) building to 9.5 ft @ 13 secs at sunset (12 ft). Swell peaking Thurs AM (12/28) near 7 AM at 15 ft @ 17-18 secs (26 ft) and holding solid through the day. Swell fading Fri (12/29) from 8.4 ft @ 15 secs (12.5 ft). Swell direction: 270 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival early Thurs AM (12/28) at 3.5 ft @ 13 secs building fast through the day to 5.8 ft @ 17-18 secs later (10 ft) at exposed breaks. swell fading some through the day Fri (12/29) from 4.4 ft 16 secs early (7.0 ft). Swell Direction: 283 degrees

Gulf Storm #6
And yet another strong storm started developing just west of the dateline Tues AM (12/26) with 40-45 kt west winds and seas building fast. In the evening northwest winds were 40 kts over the dateline with seas building from 24 ft at 37.5N 175W aimed east and southeast. On Wed AM (12/27) 50 kt northwest winds were over the Western Gulf with seas 35 ft at 37.5N 164W aimed southeast. In the evening northwest winds to build to 50-55 kts with seas 39 ft over a modest area at 36N 155.5W aimed southeast. On Thurs AM (12/28) the storm is to be in the Central Gulf with northwest winds 50-55 kts and seas 43 ft at 34.25N 149.25W aimed southeast. The storm is to east east while weakening in the evening with 35-40 kt northwest and west winds and seas 35 ft at 33N 143W aimed east and southeast. The gale is to be fading on Fri AM (12/29) off Central CA with 30-35 kts west winds and seas fading from 29 ft at 34N 135W aimed southeast. This looks like a Southern CA event.

Oahu: Expect swell arrival late afternoon on Thurs (12/28) building to 11.2 ft @ 16 secs (18 ft) before sunset. Swell fading at sunrise Fri (12/29) from 8.4 ft @ 13-14 secs (11.0 ft). Swell fading Sat (12/30) from 5.6 ft @ 13 secs (7.0 ft). Swell Direction: 340 turning to 010 degrees

North California: Expect swell arrival on Sat (12/30) well before sunrise peaking just before sunrise at 13.7 ft @ 17 secs (23 ft). Swell fading some through the day. Swell fading Sun (12/31) from 8.4 ft @ 12-13 secs early (10 ft). Residuals on Mon (1/1) fading from 3.4 ft @ 11-12 secs (3.5 ft). Swell Direction: 265 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Sat (12/30) building to 5.8 ft @ 17-18 secs mid-AM (10 ft) and holding well through the day. Swell fading on Sun (12/31) from 4.2 ft @ 14 secs early (6.0 ft). Residuals on Mon (1/1) fading from 1.9 ft @ 11-12 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 280 degrees.

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

Tropical Update
No tropical systems of interest were being tracked.

California Nearshore Forecast

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at 8, 10, 7, and 2 inches respectively with 1 inches late Wed (12/27) and most on Sat 12/30.

Freeze Level for Tahoe Ski Resorts: Freeze Level 8,500 ft through 12/29 then falling to 5.000 ft on 12/30-12/31 rising to 6,500 1/1 holding through 1/3 rising to 10,000 ft on 1/4-1/5 then falling beyond.

- - -

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for Resort specific forecasts).

South Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
No swell of interest coming from the Southern Hemisphere was hitting Hawaii or California. Summer is over.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours yet another gale is forecast developing just west of the North Dateline region Wed PM (12/27) with 45 kts west winds and seas 33 ft at 48N 169E aimed east. On Thurs AM (12/28) 45 kt northwest winds are to be approaching the dateline with seas 35 ft at 45N 172E aimed southeast. In the evening the system is to move east over the dateline with 40-45 kt west winds and seas 36 ft at 46.25N 177.75E aimed southeast. On Fri AM (12/29) the gale is to be fading in the Northwestern Gulf with 30-35 kts northwest winds and seas 33 ft at 45.25N 173.5W aimed southeast. The gale to fade from there.

And yet another gale is forecast developing on the dateline Sat AM (12/30) with 45 kt northwest winds and seas building. In the evening the gale is to be lifting northeast over the Western Gulf with 50-55 kts northwest winds and seas 28 ft at 39.5N 168.25W aimed east. On Sun (12/31) the storm is to race northeast with 55 kt west winds and seas 35 ft at 47N 157.75W aimed east. Fetch fading fast after that. Something to monitor.

Secondary fetch is to develop in the Western Gulf Mon AM (1/1) with 45 kt northwest winds over a small area and seas 31 ft at 42.5N 158.5W aimed east. In the evening fetch is to fall southeast at 40 kts with seas 29 ft at 39.75N 150.5W aimed southeast. On Tues AM (12/2) fetch is to be fading from 35 kts off North CA with seas 26 ft at 37.5N 145W aimed east. in the evening fetch is to be dissipating from 30 kts off Pt Conception with seas fading from 23 ft at 36.5N 137W aimed southeast. Something to monitor.

On Mon AM (1/1) another gale is to develop on the dateline with 45 kt west winds and seas 23 ft at 42N 175E aimed east. In the evening the gael is to be lifting east-northeast towards the Western Gulf with 45 kt west winds and seas 27 ft at 42N 173W aimed east. On Tues AM (1/2) the gael is to be in the Northwestern Gulf with 40 kt west winds and seas up to 31 ft at 47.5N 164.25W aimed east. Fetch fading in the evening from 40 kts and seas 36 ft at 49.5N 158.5W aimed east.

And yet more to be behind that.

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

MJO/ENSO Forecast

El Nino Peaking
NINO3.4 SST Anomalies Reflect a Strong El Nino
1 Kelvin Wave traversed the Pacific in Dec '22 with a 2nd in Jan-Feb and a 3rd and 4th in March-April, a 5th in May and a 6th in August. But after the last Active MJO in mid-to-late May (resulting in Kevin Wave #5), the MJO stalled. Finally the Active Phase restarted in later July Producing Kelvin Wave #6 which is erupting off Ecuador now. Another Active Phase of the MJO and 3 associated Westerly Wind Bursts developed early Oct thru later Nov producing Kelvin Waves #7 and #8 which are erupting off Ecuador now. All these Active MJO/Kevin Wave pairs are backfilling warm water off Ecuador and helping push the atmosphere deeper into El Nino. And El Nino is finally evident in the atmosphere as evidenced by the jetstream, OLR. ocean current, and wind anomalies.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023.

Rationale: A 3 year La Nina started fading in Jan 2023 and was gone by April. 6 Active MJO's produced 6 Kelvin Waves over early to mid 2023 with Kelvin Wave #7 in August building over the West Pacific and the 4th, 5th and 6th backed up off Ecuador now (10/20/23). The CFS model is predicting steady west anomalies from here forward and the leading edge of the low pressure bias moving over California now filling the Pacific. We are now under an El Nino status. We are moving into a period of enhanced storm production (starting late Sept 2023) and beyond, getting intense come late Fall and early Winter. This should result in an above normal level of swells, with swells being longer than normal duration from here forward as El Nino gets a stronger footprint on the atmosphere. The net result is a well above normal number of swells with above normal size and duration (i.e 15 significant class swells perhaps). Last year there were 0 and year before 5 or less.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (12/26) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the East equatorial Pacific and moderate east over the Central Pacific and moderate west over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral to light west over the East equatorial Pacific and light west over the Central Pacific and strong west over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (12/27) West anomalies were weak over the East KWGA but moderate east over the West KWGA. There's a 50/50 split of east and west anomalies over the KWGA. The forecast indicates the same pattern holding to 12/28, then west anomalies shift just east of the dateline and mostly east of the KWGA filling the East Pacific while east anomalies build filling the KWGA 12/29 through the end of the model run on 1/11. West anomalies are to start developing over over the Maritime Continent 12/30 and beyond. The Indian Ocean Dipole is dissipating.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (12/27) Today in the far West Pacific the leading edge of the 30 deg isotherm was steady at 166W. The 29 degree isotherm was steady at 158W. The 28 deg isotherm line was racing east at 128W (previously 143W). The 24 degree isotherm extended the whole way across the Pacific and deeper at 47m (25m earlier but at one point down to 65m). Anomaly wise, warm anomalies at +2 deg C start in the far West Pacific at 173E and +3 deg anomalies redeveloping at 170W (previously 148W) and then again at 140W associated with the eastward movement of the final Kelvin Wave #7/8. +4 degs anomalies start at +130W (previously 145W) pushing east in a continuous stream into Ecuador. The warm pool in the east is discharging to the surface while being backfilled by a little more warm water (possible Kelvin Wave #9) but no longer growing in coverage. There's about 1.5 months of warm water backed up off the Ecuadorian Coast. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 12/19 indicates +1-2 degs anomalies starting at 170E and over a large section of the subsurface equatorial Pacific (Kelvin Wave #7/#8) and building while tracking east with 3 deg anomalies from 155W and fading fast with embedded +4-5 deg anomalies in a second pool of very warm water from 130W and points east of there erupting into Ecuador. A thin stream of +0.5 degree anomalies were falling off the Maritime Continent merging with the preexisting warm stream but cool water was building deep in the far West Pacific down 150m reaching east to 150W. A steady flow of warm water is tracking east from the Maritime Continent. No cool anomalies were indicated above 150m. El Nino is peaking. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (12/19) Sea heights were positive across the equatorial Pacific starting at 175W at +0-5 cms extending east into Ecuador. +5 cm anomalies covered the area from 150W to the Ecuadorian Coast (Kelvin Wave #7) but +10 cm anomalies were all but gone. This means no cool water was at depth but it appears the warm pool is starting to discharge. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (12/19) warm water is moving east at +0.5 degs from 158W to Ecuador with a broad pocket of +1.0-2.5 deg anomalies between 152W to 85W and moving east. The mature Phase of El Nino has started with cooler water developing over the West Pacific and warm water building in the east and pushing east with a new Kelvin Wave in flight. The demise of the warm pool in the west signals an eventual turn to La Nina (sometime next year).

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (12/26) The latest images depict a strong warm stream from Ecuador uniformly covering the area on the equator west to the dateline. Temps are building some from 90W to 140W but have faded more between 140W to the dateline. Pockets of stronger warming were again showing between the Galapagos and 120W. Heat also extends north up to Southern Baja and south down into North Chile. There is a very clear El Nino signal with the classic El Nino triangle in-place and building towards a strong status.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (12/26): A generalized warming trend is on the equator between the Galapagos out to 160W. In general a warming trend has been well entrenched over the East Pacific since Nov 1 2022 with significant cooling over the East Pacific since 12/15/22.
Hi-res Overview: (12/26) Warmer than normal waters are filling the Equatorial Pacific from Ecuador to the dateline and strongest from 90W to 130W. The classic El Nino tongue of warm water is steady but not building over the equator west to the dateline. Everything is now looking like El Nino.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (12/27) (The official OISST temp record runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps are falling hard +0.224 after being steady at +0.814 12/6-12/18. after building to +1.715 (11/27) and down at +1.0630 (11/20) after being at +1.657 (11/13) and up to +2.001 (11/6-11/10) then generally steady in the +1.9 degs range 9/28-11/9. Previous temps were down at +1.755 (10/22), down to +1.527 (10/6), up to +2.10 (9/17) and have been falling since 8/31 when they were up to +3.073 after rising to +3.164 (8/18) after being up to +2.925 on 8/10 after rising at +3.074 degs (8/7) after being up to +3.391 (on 7/20) and had been rising from +2.906 (starting 7/3) rising from +2.451 after peaking at +2.7926 on 6/13 and have been up in the +2.0 to +3.0 degs range since 4/1 having previously peaked at +2.891 (4/13). Previously temps reached +2.302 degrees on 4/6, +1.732 degs (3/22), up from +0.462 since 2/28. Temps had reached as high as +1.076 on 2/19 and were previously steady at +0.848 since 2/7. Previously they started steadily rising 11/13 when they were around -1.5 degs C.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (12/27) (OISST runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were steady at +1.563 and have been near this range since 11/19. They were down to +1.236 (11/16) after being up to +1.449 on 11/2 and +1.300 on 10/20 after falling down to +1.149 (10/11). Weekly OISST are again at +2.0 (12/20 and 12/13) after being at +1.9 (12/6), +2.0 degs (11/29) and +2.1 (week of 11/22 - the highest so far), then +1.9 the week before and +1.8 degs (previous 2 weeks). Anomalies were +1.6 the previous 2 weeks (10/18 & 1025), +1.5 the 3 weeks previous (through 10/11) after being up to +1.7 degs the week before and +1.6 degs 3 weeks in a row prior (starting 8/30) putting us in minimal strong El Nino status. Temps first time above +1.0 degs was on 8/7 after being up to +0.967 (8/1) up from +0.873 degs (7/25) after peaking at +0.985 (7/18). Previously temps were rising slightly at +0.882 (7/9) after being steady at +0.794 4-5 days and that after being steady at +0.895 (3 days near 6/25) after being in the +0.712 range the previous 9 days after previously rising to +0.975 on 6/9. We are now 31 days into a trend of being above the El Nino threshold (for the 2nd time). Temps reached the El Nino threshold for the first time on 5/17 at +0.507 then quickly fell over the next 10 days down to +0.378 (5/26). Previous peaks of +0.318 on 4/30 besting the previous peak at +0.199 on 4/21. Temps have been steadily increasing hitting 0.0 on 4/12 and were then more or less steady the previous 4 weeks. Temps previously rose to -0.402 on 2/23. Temps rose above the La Nina threshold (-0.5 degs) on 2/22 and had been rising slowly since 2/12 when they were about -1.0 degs C. They had been in the -1.0 deg range since at least Nov 2022.

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps started slowly rising to -0.75 degs in Jan 2023 and up to -0.5 degs (above the La Nina threshold) on 2/12. Temps rose to +0.50 degs mid-May and were at +0.9 degs in mid-June, and +1.05 mid July reaching up to +1.30 degs early Au, +1.6 degs in Sept holding in Oct and , +1.95 in Nov and Dec.
Forecast (12/27) - Temps to are to hold at +1.95 degs though mid Dec, then falling to +1.7 mid- Jan and solidly in strong El Nino territory before starting a steady fade thereafter down to -1.0 degs in Sept 2024. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same thing. According to this version of the model we are at the peak of our strong El Nino.
IRI Consensus Plume: The December 20, 2023 Plume (all models) depicts temps are +1.67 degs today and it's the 8th month above the La Nina threshold. Temps to rise steadily from here forward up to +1.838 degrees in December (that's a 3 months running mean) then fading from there. The dynamic model suggest temps peaking at +1.900 in Dec/Jan/Feb before falling while the statistic models show +1.838 Dec/Jan/Feb before falling. This is higher than the previous months projections. The dynamic models are running a bit hotter than the statistic models and are likely more accurate. The CFS model is on the low end of the dynamic model range with 7 of 17 models above +2.0 degrees.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (12/27) the Daily Index was rising at -2.80 and has been neutral 2 days after hard negative 6 days. It was neutral the previous 8 days (12/12-12/19). Otherwise was negative since 12/3. It had been mostly positive the previous 8 days (starting 11/25) but was negative 5 days previous, neutral for 2 days then negative the previous 12 days, Previously they were toggling between weakly positive and negative for 12 days (starting 10/24), but were solidly negative for 65 days prior (starting 9/16). It was positive the previous 7 days, then negative the previous 29 days (7/14-8/11) with a peak down to -37.30 on 7/25.The SOI has effectively been negative since 7/12. It was positive the previous 21 days then was negative 11 days prior and positive 5 days previous then negative for 27 days previous ending 6/6 with a peak down to -29.32 on 5/31, -64.63 on 5/24 and -31.31 on 5/12. Previously readings were toggling between +10 and -10 for 13 days, but negative the 15 days previous to that, positive the 6 days prior to that after being mostly negative 25 days before that. It fell to -19.40 on 4/2. -17.44 on 2/22, the beginning of a change from which no return seemed likely. It was up to +21.85 on 2/10 and +55.74 on 12/22 and were in the +20 range the previous 22 days.
The 30 day average was falling at -4.45 after being down to -10.43 on 11/16 and up to -5.75 on 11/5 and previously down to -15.70 on 9/23. It fell below the neutral point on 7/26. It rose above positive 7/3-7/25. It previously fell to -19.64 on 6/5 had been falling to -4.13 on 4/4 (lagging indicator driven by the Active Phase of the MJO) after falling to -0.52 on 3/22 previously falling to +4.18 on 11/27 and peaking at +21.57 (10/16) after supposedly peaking at +19.66 on 9/28. It was down to +6.89 on 7/29. It peaked at +20.34 (5/12) the highest in a year and beating last years high of +19.51 (1/14).
The 90 day average was falling at -6.78 after being up to -6.04 on 12/21 and turned negative the first time in years on 5/12. Recent max lows were -11.14 on 11/17, -11.85 on 10/15, -8.90 on 8/8 and -7.57 on 6/6. It previously peaked at +14.63 on 2/20, +15.61 on 10/25 and +12.92 on 8/11 and that after peaking at +18.40 (7/2) beating it's previous peak of +16.86 (5/31), the highest in a year. It previously peaked at +9.80 (9/21) after falling to it's lowest point in a year at +1.06 (6/9). The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 (2/23/21 - clearly indicative of La Nina then). This index is a lagging indicator but suggests that the Active Phase occurring now is starting to drive the index down, hopefully with no upward trend in sight for at least a year.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative ever since, driven by recent La Nina conditions. In May-July 2021 it was the most negative its been in the -1.80 to -2.04 range since Sept 2012 (-2.99) and then fell to -3.16 in Oct 2021 (the lowest since July 1933) then settled at -2.72 in Nov and Dec 2021. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

- - -

NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table