BUOY ROUNDUP
Saturday, December 30, 2023 :

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Saturday (12/30) in North and Central CA waves were 15-17 ft and chopped and pretty warbled and a mess from a combination of previous south wind ana chop and newly developing northwest wind. Protected breaks were 4 ft overhead on the sets and super lined up and closed out but comparatively clean with only steady modest warbled on top. At Santa Cruz surf was 10 ft and super lined up and warbled and rainy with south winds and pretty much a mess. In Southern California/Ventura waves were 3 ft overhead and lined up with decent form and fairly clean with no wind but kinda junky looking. Central Orange County had sets at 3-4 ft overhead and lined up if not closed out and no wind but pretty warbled and the current racing south down the beach. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had waves at head high and super lined up and a bit closed out but fairly clean with only modest warbled intermixed. North San Diego had waves at 3 ft overhead on the sets and real lined up with good form but a bit ruffled. Oahu's North Shore had waves at 1-2 ft overhead and uneven and mushed but fairly clean. The South Shore was thigh high and clean but soft. The East Shore was 2-3 ft overhead and lined up and chopped from moderate trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Saturday (12/30) Hawaii was getting fading sideband swell from Storms #6 that developed on the dateline tracking east just off Central CA Wed-Fri (12/29) with 41 ft seas aimed east. That swell was hitting California now. Another gale developed moving from the North Dateline region to the Northwestern Gulf Thurs-Fri (12/29) with 33 ft seas aimed southeast. That swell is propagating towards Hawaii and with lesser energy to California. A small gale is forecast developing over the Western Gulf tracking east Sun-Tues (1/3) with 26-28 ft seas targeting mainly California then moving over the California Coast on Wed-Thurs (1/4) with 23-24 ft seas aimed east. And another gale is to develop on the dateline Mon (1/1) with 26-28 ft seas aimed east building in coverage filling the Northwestern Gulf Tues-Wed (1/3) with 26-28 ft seas aimed east. And yet a stronger system is forecast for the North Dateline region Fri-Sat (1/6) producing up to 45 ft seas aimed east. 2 swell are in the water with 3 more possible behind. El Nino is delivering.

See all the details below...

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Saturday (12/30) the jet was weakly consolidated pushing east over a broad area from Japan over the dateline centered on the 35N latitude line reaching about 900 nmiles off Central CA with winds to 140 kts in pockets with a trough off the US West Coast and another starting to develop just west of the North Dateline region offering some support for gale development. Over the next 72 hours the trough off California is to move inland late Sun (12/31) while the dateline trough races east over the Northern Gulf Mon-Tues (1/2) offering support for gale development before nearly pinching off and moving over Central CA on Wed (1/3). Beyond 72 hours another trough is forecast building over the North Dateline region on Tues (1/2) sweeping into the Northern Gulf on Thurs(1/4) being fed by 120 kts winds offering some support for gale development. Then the jet is to consolidate off Japan Fri (1/5) with winds 170 kts reaching the dateline Sat (1/6) with winds to 180 kts forming a solid trough over the North Dateline region offering good support for gale development. The storm producing assembly line is in full operation.

Surface Analysis
On Saturday (12/30) solid raw swell was hitting California from a storm that traversed the Gulf previously (See Gulf Storm #6 below). Residual swell from this system was fading in Hawaii.

Over the next 72 hours yet another swell is to be hitting Hawaii and California produced by a gale previously over the North Dateline Region (see North Dateline Gale below).

Another gale is forecast developing on the dateline Sat AM (12/30) with 45 kt west winds over a tiny area and seas building. In the evening the gale is to be lifting northeast over the Western Gulf with 40-45 kt west winds and seas 23 ft at 36.5N 165W aimed east. On Sun (12/31) the storm is to race northeast with 40-45 kt west winds and seas 28 ft at 39.5N 157.25W aimed east. Fetch lifting north in the evening at 45 kts with seas 26-28 ft at 45N 153W aimed east with secondary fetch developing just west of it over the Western Gulf at 35-40 kts from the northwest and seas building from 24 ft at 42N 168W aimed east. On Mon AM (1/1) west winds to be 35 kts over a small area 1200 nmiles north of Hawaii aimed east with seas 26 ft at 42N 154W aimed east. In the evening fetch is to fall southeast at 30-35 kts with seas 23 ft at 40N 150W aimed southeast. On Tues AM (12/2) fetch is to be holding at 35 kts off North CA with seas 23 ft at 40N 142W aimed east. In the evening fetch is to be 35 kts just off San Francisco with seas 23 ft at 37N 136W aimed southeast. on Wed AM (1/3) the gale is to be poised to push onshore over San Francisco with 30-35 kts northwest winds and seas 23 ft at 37N 130W. In the evening the gael is to fade with 30 kts northwest winds and seas 23 ft at 38N 128W aimed east. Something to monitor.

Oahu: Potential swell arrival late Tues (1/2) at sunset building to 5.6 ft @ 15 secs (8.0 ft). Swell fading Wed AM (1/3) from 5.0 ft @ 13 secs (6.5 ft). Dribbles on Thurs (1/4) fading from 2.8 ft @ 12 secs (3.0 ft) and being overtaken by new possible swell. Swell Direction: 330 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Wed AM (1/3) building through the day to 11.2 ft @ 13-14 secs later (14.5 ft). Swell fading Thurs AM (1/4) from 10.6 ft @ 13-14 secs (14 ft). Swell Direction: 270 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Wed AM (1/3) building through the day to 2.9 ft @ 14 secs later (4.0 ft). Swell fading Thurs AM (1/4) from 4.7 ft @ 14 secs (6.5 ft). Swell Direction: 285 degrees

On Mon AM (1/1) another gale is to develop on the dateline with 40-45 kt west winds and seas 26 ft at 43.5N 172E aimed east. In the evening the gale is to be lifting east-northeast towards the Western Gulf with 45 kt west winds and seas 28 ft at 39.5N 178.75W aimed east. On Tues AM (1/2) the gale is to be in the Northwestern Gulf with additional west fetch building at 30-45 kts over a broad area aimed east with seas up to 26-28 ft at 42N 174W aimed east. Fetch holding from the northwest in the evening at 30-40 kts and seas 29 ft at 45.5N 172W aimed east. On Wed AM (1/3) northwest winds to be 30-40 kts filling the northwestern Gulf with seas 28 ft at 45N 170W aimed southeast. The gael is to be fading in the evening from 30-35 kts with seas 25 ft at 45N 160W. A long duration of mid-period swell to result for Hawaii and the US West Coast from a rather northerly direction.

Gulf Storm #6
And yet another strong storm started developing just west of the dateline Tues AM (12/26) with 40-45 kt west winds and seas building fast. In the evening northwest winds were 40 kts over the dateline with seas building from 24 ft at 37.5N 175W aimed east and southeast. On Wed AM (12/27) 50 kt northwest winds were over the Western Gulf with seas 35 ft at 37.5N 164W aimed southeast. In the evening northwest winds built to 50-55 kts with seas 39 ft over a modest area at 36N 155.75W aimed southeast. On Thurs AM (12/28) the storm was in the Central Gulf with northwest winds 45 kts and seas 40 ft at 34.25N 149.5W aimed southeast. The storm eased east while weakening in the evening with 35-40 kt northwest and seas 34 ft at 32.5N 142W aimed east and southeast. The gale was fading on Fri AM (12/29) off Central CA with 30 kts west winds and seas fading from 30 ft at 35.75N 135.25W aimed southeast. This looks like a Southern CA event.

Oahu: Swell fading Sat (12/30) from 5.6 ft @ 13 secs (7.0 ft). Swell Direction: 340 turning to 010 degrees

North California: Expect swell arrival on Sat (12/30) well before sunrise peaking just before sunrise at 13.7 ft @ 17 secs (23 ft). Swell fading some through the day. Swell fading Sun (12/31) from 7.6 ft @ 12-13 secs early (9.0 ft). Residuals on Mon (1/1) holding at 5.6 ft @ 12 secs (6.5 ft). Swell Direction: 265 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Sat (12/30) building to 6.1 ft @ 17 secs mid-AM (10 ft) and holding well through the day. Swell fading on Sun (12/31) from 4.0 ft @ 13-14 secs early (5.5 ft). Residuals on Mon (1/1) fading from 2.0 ft @ 11-12 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 280 degrees.

North Dateline Gale
Another gale started developing just west of the North Dateline region Wed AM (12/27) with 45 kts northwest winds and seas building. In the evening the gale tracked east with 45 kt west winds and seas 33 ft over a small area at 48N 169E aimed east. On Thurs AM (12/28) 40-45 kt northwest winds were approaching the dateline over a broad area with seas 33 ft at 45N 172E aimed southeast. In the evening the system moved over the dateline with 40 kt northwest winds and seas 33 ft at 45N 178E aimed southeast. On Fri AM (12/29) the gale was fading in the Northwestern Gulf with 30-35 kts northwest winds still over a solid sized area and seas 29 ft at 44.5N 174W aimed southeast. Fetch faded in the evening from 30 kts with seas fading from 25 ft at 43.5N 171W aimed east. The gale dissipated from there.

Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Sun (12/31) building to 6.2 ft @ 16-17 secs (10 ft) late AM. Swell fading on Mon (1/1) from 5.0 ft @ 14-15 secs (7.5 ft). Residuals on Tues (1/2) fading from 4.7 ft @ 12-13 secs (5.5 ft). Swell Direction: 320 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Tues (1/2) building to 2.8 ft @ 15 secs later (3.0 ft) buried in local warble.

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

Tropical Update
No tropical systems of interest were being tracked.

California Nearshore Forecast

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at 32, 35, 31, and 19 inches respectively with 2 inches on Sat (12/30) a few more on Wed (1/3) and the main event Fri-Sat (1/6).

Freeze Level for Tahoe Ski Resorts: Freeze Level 6,500 ft today through 1/2 then falling to 5,000 ft 1/3 and down to 1,000 ft on 1/7 and beyond. Maybe there's some hope.

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Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for Resort specific forecasts).

South Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
No swell of interest coming from the Southern Hemisphere was hitting Hawaii or California. Summer is over.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours 2 more gales are forecast.

The first to develop Thurs PM (1/4) in the Western Gulf with 35 kts west winds and seas building from 24 ft at 45N 166W aimed southeast. Fri AM (1/5) fetch is to be holding at 35 kts while moving east through the Northern Gulf with seas 26 ft at 44N 153W aimed southeast. more of the same in the evening with seas 26 ft at 44N 145W aimed southeast. On Sat AM (1/6) the gale is to be falling southeast off North CA with 35 kts northwest winds and seas 23 ft over a broad area at 40N 140W aimed southeast. In the evening the gale is to be falling south the Central Coast with 35 kts northwest winds and seas 22 ft at 37N 133W now targeting Central CA. Something to monitor.

A far stronger storm is forecast developing over the dateline Fri AM (1/5) with 45-50 kt northwest winds and seas building fast from 29 ft at 42N 176.5E aimed east. In the evening the storm is to lift north with 60kt northwest winds over the North Dateline region with seas building fast from 37 ft at 48.75N 179.25E. On Sat AM (1/6) the storm is to be lifting over the Central Aleutians with 55+ kt west winds and seas 48 ft at 51.75N 172.5W aimed east. The storm is to move into the Bering Sea after that. Something more to monitor.

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

MJO/ENSO Forecast

El Nino Peaking
NINO3.4 SST Anomalies Reflect a Strong El Nino
1 Kelvin Wave traversed the Pacific in Dec '22 with a 2nd in Jan-Feb and a 3rd and 4th in March-April, a 5th in May and a 6th in August. But after the last Active MJO in mid-to-late May (resulting in Kevin Wave #5), the MJO stalled. Finally the Active Phase restarted in later July Producing Kelvin Wave #6 which is erupting off Ecuador now. Another Active Phase of the MJO and 3 associated Westerly Wind Bursts developed early Oct thru later Nov producing Kelvin Waves #7 and #8 which are erupting off Ecuador now. All these Active MJO/Kevin Wave pairs are backfilling warm water off Ecuador and helping push the atmosphere deeper into El Nino. And El Nino is finally evident in the atmosphere as evidenced by the jetstream, OLR. ocean current, and wind anomalies.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023.

Rationale: A 3 year La Nina started fading in Jan 2023 and was gone by April. 6 Active MJO's produced 6 Kelvin Waves over early to mid 2023 with Kelvin Wave #7 in August building over the West Pacific and the 4th, 5th and 6th backed up off Ecuador now (10/20/23). The CFS model is predicting steady west anomalies from here forward and the leading edge of the low pressure bias moving over California now filling the Pacific. We are now under an El Nino status. We are moving into a period of enhanced storm production (starting late Sept 2023) and beyond, getting intense come late Fall and early Winter. This should result in an above normal level of swells, with swells being longer than normal duration from here forward as El Nino gets a stronger footprint on the atmosphere. The net result is a well above normal number of swells with above normal size and duration (i.e 15 significant class swells perhaps). Last year there were 0 and year before 5 or less.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (12/29) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the East equatorial Pacific and moderate east over the Central Pacific and light west over the KWGA. Anomalies were light west over the East equatorial Pacific and light west over the Central Pacific and modest west over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (12/30) East anomalies were starting to build over all the KWGA while moderate to strong west anomalies were over the East Equatorial Pacific. The forecast indicates east anomalies building to strong status filling the KWGA 1/9 holding through the end of the model run on 1/14. The East anomalies of the Indian Ocean Dipole are mow moving into the West PAcific signaling the beginnings of the end of El Nino.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (12/30) Today in the far West Pacific the leading edge of the 30 deg isotherm was steady at 165W. The 29 degree isotherm was steady at 158W. The 28 deg isotherm line was racing east at 124W (previously 143W). The 24 degree isotherm extended the whole way across the Pacific and deeper at 47m (25m earlier but at one point down to 65m). Anomaly wise, warm anomalies at +2 deg C start in the far West Pacific at 175E and +3 deg anomalies redeveloping centered at 170W and building in coverage. It appears new Kelvin Wave #9 is developing under the dateline. +3 degs anomalies associated with Kelvin Wave #7/#8 start at 143W and +4 deg anomalies at +130W (previously 145W) pushing east in a continuous stream into Ecuador. The warm pool in the east is discharging to the surface while being backfilled by a little more warm water (Kelvin Wave #9) but no longer growing in coverage. There's about 1.5-2.0 months of warm water backed up off the Ecuadorian Coast. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 12/24 indicates +1-2 degs anomalies starting at 175E and over a large section of the subsurface equatorial Pacific (Kelvin Wave #9) and building while tracking east with 3 deg anomalies from Kevin Wave #7/#8 125W and east of there erupting into Ecuador. A thin stream of +0.5 degree anomalies were falling off the Maritime Continent merging with the preexisting warm stream but cool water was building deep in the far West Pacific down 150m reaching east to 145W. No cool anomalies were indicated above 150m for the moment. El Nino is peaking. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (12/24) Sea heights were positive across the equatorial Pacific starting at 175E at +0-5 cms extending east into Ecuador. +5 cm anomalies covered the area from 160W to the Ecuadorian Coast (Kelvin Wave #7, #8 and #9) with +10 cm anomalies between 140W to 110W. No cool water was at depth but it appears the warm pool is starting to discharge to the east. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (12/24) warm water is moving east at +0.5 degs from 160W to Ecuador with a broad pocket of +1.0-2.5 deg anomalies between 145W to Ecuador and moving east. The mature Phase of El Nino is peaking with cooler water developing over the West Pacific and warm water building in the east and pushing east with the final Kelvin Wave (#9) in flight. The demise of the warm pool in the west signals an eventual turn to La Nina (sometime next year).

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (12/29) The latest images depict a strong warm stream from Ecuador uniformly covering the area on the equator west to the dateline. Temps are building some from 90W to 140W but have faded more between 140W to the dateline. Pockets of stronger warming were again showing between the Galapagos and 130W. Heat also extends north up to Southern Baja and south down into North Chile. There is a very clear El Nino signal with the classic El Nino triangle in-place and building towards a strong status.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (12/29): A generalized warming trend is on the equator between the Galapagos out to 160W. Warming is also occurring along Chile, Peru, Ecuador up into Central America. In general a warming trend has been well entrenched over the East Pacific since Nov 1 2022 with significant cooling over the East Pacific since 12/15/22.
Hi-res Overview: (12/29) Warmer than normal waters are filling the Equatorial Pacific from Ecuador to the dateline and strongest from 90W to 135W. The classic El Nino tongue of warm water is steady but not building over the equator west to the dateline. Everything is now looking like El Nino.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (12/30) (The official OISST temp record runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps are steady at +0.448 after falling hard down to +0.224 (12/26) after being steady at +0.814 12/6-12/18. Before that they were building to +1.715 (11/27) and down at +1.0630 (11/20) after being at +1.657 (11/13) and up to +2.001 (11/6-11/10) then generally steady in the +1.9 degs range 9/28-11/9. Previous temps were down at +1.755 (10/22), down to +1.527 (10/6), up to +2.10 (9/17) and have been falling since 8/31 when they were up to +3.073 after rising to +3.164 (8/18) after being up to +2.925 on 8/10 after rising at +3.074 degs (8/7) after being up to +3.391 (on 7/20) and had been rising from +2.906 (starting 7/3) rising from +2.451 after peaking at +2.7926 on 6/13 and have been up in the +2.0 to +3.0 degs range since 4/1 having previously peaked at +2.891 (4/13). Previously temps reached +2.302 degrees on 4/6, +1.732 degs (3/22), up from +0.462 since 2/28. Temps had reached as high as +1.076 on 2/19 and were previously steady at +0.848 since 2/7. Previously they started steadily rising 11/13 when they were around -1.5 degs C.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (12/30) (OISST runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were rising slowly to +1.634. We are likely at peak temps now. Temps were in the +1.5 range since 11/19. They were down to +1.236 (11/16) after being up to +1.449 on 11/2 and +1.300 on 10/20 after falling down to +1.149 (10/11). Weekly OISST are again at +2.0 (12/20 and 12/13) after being at +1.9 (12/6), +2.0 degs (11/29) and +2.1 (week of 11/22 - the highest so far), then +1.9 the week before and +1.8 degs (previous 2 weeks). Anomalies were +1.6 the previous 2 weeks (10/18 & 1025), +1.5 the 3 weeks previous (through 10/11) after being up to +1.7 degs the week before and +1.6 degs 3 weeks in a row prior (starting 8/30) putting us in minimal strong El Nino status. Temps first time above +1.0 degs was on 8/7 after being up to +0.967 (8/1) up from +0.873 degs (7/25) after peaking at +0.985 (7/18). Previously temps were rising slightly at +0.882 (7/9) after being steady at +0.794 4-5 days and that after being steady at +0.895 (3 days near 6/25) after being in the +0.712 range the previous 9 days after previously rising to +0.975 on 6/9. We are now 31 days into a trend of being above the El Nino threshold (for the 2nd time). Temps reached the El Nino threshold for the first time on 5/17 at +0.507 then quickly fell over the next 10 days down to +0.378 (5/26). Previous peaks of +0.318 on 4/30 besting the previous peak at +0.199 on 4/21. Temps have been steadily increasing hitting 0.0 on 4/12 and were then more or less steady the previous 4 weeks. Temps previously rose to -0.402 on 2/23. Temps rose above the La Nina threshold (-0.5 degs) on 2/22 and had been rising slowly since 2/12 when they were about -1.0 degs C. They had been in the -1.0 deg range since at least Nov 2022.

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps started slowly rising to -0.75 degs in Jan 2023 and up to -0.5 degs (above the La Nina threshold) on 2/12. Temps rose to +0.50 degs mid-May and were at +0.9 degs in mid-June, and +1.05 mid July reaching up to +1.30 degs early Au, +1.6 degs in Sept holding in Oct and , +1.95 in Nov and Dec.
Forecast (12/29) - Temps to are to hold at +1.95 degs though mid Dec. But this is nonsense. Temps are higher now than at any time in the past. Temps are to be falling to +1.7 mid- Jan and solidly in strong El Nino territory before starting a steady fade thereafter down to -1.0 degs in Sept 2024. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same thing. According to this version of the model we are at the peak of our strong El Nino.
IRI Consensus Plume: The December 20, 2023 Plume (all models) depicts temps are +1.67 degs today and it's the 8th month above the La Nina threshold. Temps to rise steadily from here forward up to +1.838 degrees in December (that's a 3 months running mean) then fading from there. The dynamic model suggest temps peaking at +1.900 in Dec/Jan/Feb before falling while the statistic models show +1.838 Dec/Jan/Feb before falling. This is higher than the previous months projections. The dynamic models are running a bit hotter than the statistic models and are likely more accurate. The CFS model is on the low end of the dynamic model range with 7 of 17 models above +2.0 degrees.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (12/30) the Daily Index was rising at +10.74 and has been neutral 5 days after hard negative 6 days. It was neutral the previous 8 days (12/12-12/19). Otherwise was negative since 12/3. It had been mostly positive the previous 8 days (starting 11/25) but was negative 5 days previous, neutral for 2 days then negative the previous 12 days, Previously they were toggling between weakly positive and negative for 12 days (starting 10/24), but were solidly negative for 65 days prior (starting 9/16). It was positive the previous 7 days, then negative the previous 29 days (7/14-8/11) with a peak down to -37.30 on 7/25.The SOI has effectively been negative since 7/12. It was positive the previous 21 days then was negative 11 days prior and positive 5 days previous then negative for 27 days previous ending 6/6 with a peak down to -29.32 on 5/31, -64.63 on 5/24 and -31.31 on 5/12. Previously readings were toggling between +10 and -10 for 13 days, but negative the 15 days previous to that, positive the 6 days prior to that after being mostly negative 25 days before that. It fell to -19.40 on 4/2. -17.44 on 2/22, the beginning of a change from which no return seemed likely. It was up to +21.85 on 2/10 and +55.74 on 12/22 and were in the +20 range the previous 22 days.
The 30 day average was rising at -4.31 after being down to -10.43 on 11/16 and up to -5.75 on 11/5 and previously down to -15.70 on 9/23. It fell below the neutral point on 7/26. It rose above positive 7/3-7/25. It previously fell to -19.64 on 6/5 had been falling to -4.13 on 4/4 (lagging indicator driven by the Active Phase of the MJO) after falling to -0.52 on 3/22 previously falling to +4.18 on 11/27 and peaking at +21.57 (10/16) after supposedly peaking at +19.66 on 9/28. It was down to +6.89 on 7/29. It peaked at +20.34 (5/12) the highest in a year and beating last years high of +19.51 (1/14).
The 90 day average was rising at -6.46 after being up to -6.04 on 12/21 and turned negative the first time in years on 5/12. Recent max lows were -11.14 on 11/17, -11.85 on 10/15, -8.90 on 8/8 and -7.57 on 6/6. It previously peaked at +14.63 on 2/20, +15.61 on 10/25 and +12.92 on 8/11 and that after peaking at +18.40 (7/2) beating it's previous peak of +16.86 (5/31), the highest in a year. It previously peaked at +9.80 (9/21) after falling to it's lowest point in a year at +1.06 (6/9). The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 (2/23/21 - clearly indicative of La Nina then). This index is a lagging indicator but suggests that the Active Phase occurring now is starting to drive the index down, hopefully with no upward trend in sight for at least a year.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative ever since, driven by recent La Nina conditions. In May-July 2021 it was the most negative its been in the -1.80 to -2.04 range since Sept 2012 (-2.99) and then fell to -3.16 in Oct 2021 (the lowest since July 1933) then settled at -2.72 in Nov and Dec 2021. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table